Monmouthshire County Council

Local Housing Market Assessment July 2018

Monmouthshire County Council Cyngor Sir Fynwy County Hall Neuadd y Sir Rhadyr Y Rhadyr Tel/Ffon: 01633 644644 Usk Email/Ebost: [email protected] Brynbuga NP15 1GA Web/Gwefan: www.monmouthshire.gov.uk Summary

This Local Housing Market Assessment utilises the Welsh Government’s Guidance Documents Local Housing Market Assessment Guide, March 2006 and Getting Started with your Local Housing Market Assessment, March 2012. The latter, a step-by-step guide, outlines a quantitative approach to calculating housing need that can be used consistently across Local Authorities.

This LHMA estimates a net need of 468 additional affordable units per annum up until 2023, however, this figure is not an annual delivery target. The figure is simply an indication of current and projected need for affordable housing within the County and sets a benchmark that the Council can work towards within the scope of the Council’s Adopted Local Development Plan 2011-2021.

This is a headline figure for the whole County and a more detailed assessment of need, property type and tenure at ward level is contained within the report.

Housing and Communities have undertaken the Assessment with the assistance of David James, Rural Housing Enabler for Monmouthshire.

If you have any queries regarding this LHMA please contact:

Shirley Wiggam Senior Strategy & Policy Officer Housing & Communities Monmouthshire County Council County Hall Rhadyr Usk NP15 1GA Telephone: 01633 644474

Email: [email protected]

2 Contents Page

1 Introduction 9

1.1 Introduction 9

1.2 National Policy Framework 9

1.3 Local Development Plan 9

1.4 Methodology 11

2 Housing Market Analysis 14

2.1 Average House Prices 15

2.2 Urban Housing Market 17

2.3 Price by Bed Count and Type 25

2.4 Affordability 27

2.5 Property Types and Tenure 28

2.6 Travel to Work Flows 33

2.7 Higher Managerial and Socio-economic Status 35

2.8 Housing Demand 35

2.9 Housing Turnover 36

2.10 Help to Buy 36

2.11 Private Rented Sector (written by S Griffiths) 40

3 Vulnerable Groups 45

3.1 Black and Minority Ethnic Applicants 46

3.2 Gypsies and Travellers 47

3.3 Accommodation for Older People 49

3.4 Adapted Housing 53

3.5 Housing and Mental Health 53

3 4 Backlog of Housing Need 56

4.1 Definition 56

4.2 Total Backlog 56

5 Newly Arising Need 61

5.1 Definition 61

5.2 Household Projections 61

5.3 New Households Priced out of the Market 65

5.4 Existing Households Falling into Need 66

6 Affordable Housing Supply 69

6.1 Existing Affordable Housing Stock 69

6.2 Social Housing Lettings 72

6.3 Committed Supply 73

7 Key Findings 76

7.1 Social Rented Housing 76

7.2 Low Cost Homeownership (LCHO) 76

7.3 Intermediate Rented Housing 77

8 Conclusions 80

Bibliography 81

4

List of Tables and Figures Page

Table 1 Sub Market Areas/Wards 13

Table 2 All Households by Ward - Abergavenny 30

Table 3 All Households by Ward - Monmouth 31

Table 4 All Households by Ward - Chepstow 32

Table 5 Lower Quartile House Price to Income Ratios for a sample 34 of rural wards

Table 6 Local Housing Allowance Rates 42

Table 7 Number of Properties Above and Below LHA 42

Table 8 Affordability – Gross Family Income Based on LQ and Median Rents by Known Bedroom Category 43

Table 9 BME Groups on Housing Register 46

Table 10 BME Groups in Monmouthshire 47

Table 11 Number of People with Mental Health Issues Presenting as 50 Homeless

Table 12 People Aged 16 and Over Predicted to have a Mental Health Problem – Projected to 2035 54

Table 13 Gross Backlog of Affordable Housing Need/Annum until 2015 57

Table 14 Backlog of Social Rented Housing Need by Ward/Sub Market 58 Area and Type

Table 15 Backlog of Intermediate Rented Housing and LCHO Need by 59 Ward/Sub Market Area and Number of Beds

Table 16 Household Projections 61

Table 17 Allocations Policy 62

Table 18 Household Projections Disaggregated to Wards 63

Table 19 Projected Household Increase 2018-2023 Disaggregated by 64 Ward

5 Table 20 Number of Emerging Households Priced Out of Entry Level 66 Housing Market

Table 21 Number of Existing Households Falling into Need per Annum 67

Table 22 Monmouthshire Housing Association GN Stock 69

Table 23 Monmouthshire Housing Association OAP Stock 70

Table 24 Melin Homes GN Stock 70

Table 25 Melin Homes OAP Stock 71

Table 26 Charter Housing Association GN Stock 71

Table 27 Charter Housing Association (Derwen) OAP Stock 72

Table 28 Other RSL Stock 72

Table 29 Combined RSL Disabled/Adapted Housing Stock 72

Table 30 Lettings Data from 2015 – 2017 73

Table 30 Committed Supply of Affordable Housing Over Next 5 Years 74

Figures Page

Figure 1 Bath Analogy 11

Figure 2 Average House Prices 15

Figure 3 Number of properties driving the average property price in 16 Monmouthshire

Figure 4 Average House Prices in Monmouth 17

Figure 5 Average House Prices in Monmouth by Ward 18

Figure 6 Average House Prices in Abergavenny 19

Figure 7 Average House Prices in Abergavenny by Ward 20

Figure 8 Average House Prices in Chepstow 20

Figure 9 Average House Prices in Chepstow by Ward 21

Figure 10 Average House Prices in Caldicot 22

Figure 11 Average House Prices in Caldicot by Ward 23

Figure 12 Average House Prices in Magor with Undy 23

Figure 13 Average House Prices in Magor with Undy by Ward 24

6 Figure 14 Average House Prices in Usk 25

Figure 15 Average House Price by Bed Count 26

Figure 16 Earnings of People Who Live in Monmouthshire and Work Elsewhere 28

Figure 17 Property Types 29

Figure 18 Profile of Housing Stock 29

Figure 19 Percentage Tenure by Ward - Abergavenny HMA 30

Figure 20 Percentage Tenure by Ward - Monmouth HMA 31

Figure 21 Percentage Tenure by Ward - Chepstow HMA 32

Figure 22 Travel to Work Flows 33

Figure 23 Percentage of Higher Managerial and Professional Households 35

Figure 24 Weeks to Sell 36

Figure 25 Sales to Asking Price – Percentage Achieved 36

Figure 26 Monmouthshire’s Annual Housing Turnover by Broad Type and Age 37

Figure 27 Annual Turnover by Property Type 38

Figure 28 Help to Buy - Completed Purchases by LA and Date 38

Figure 29 Help to Buy - Percentage of First-Time Buyers by LA and Date 39

Figure 30 Help to Buy - Completed Purchases in Monmouthshire by House Prices 39

Figure 31 Help to Buy - Completed Purchases in Monmouthshire by Number of Bedrooms 39

Figure 32 Number of Private Rented Properties by Postal Code 41

Figure 33 Number of Private Rented Properties by Bedroom Category And Postal Code 42

Figure 34 Number of Properties Below and Above LHA 43

Figure 35 Income Required to be able to Afford Median Rent 44

Figure 36 Authorised Gypsy & Traveller Caravan Count 48

Figure 37 Residents of Monmouthshire with a Limiting Long Term Illness – Predicted to 2035 50

7 Figure 38 Residents of Monmouthshire unable to manage at least one Activity on their own – predicted to 2035 50

Figure 39 Housing Tenure of People Aged 65 and Over 51

Figure 40 People Over the Age of 65 Receiving Residential Care in Monmouthshire 51

Figure 41 Residents of Monmouthshire Aged 65+ Predicted to have Dementia – Projected to 2035 52

Figure 42 Affordable Housing Annual Shortfall 78

8

Introduction

1.1 Introduction

1.2 National Policy Framework

1.3 Local Development Plan

1.4 Methodology

9 1. Introduction

1.1 All local authorities have a requirement to consider the housing accommodation needs of their localities under section 8 of the Housing Act 1985. Local Housing Market Assessments are a crucial part of the evidence base for preparing Local Development Plans and Local Housing Strategies.

1.2 Planning Policy Wales (PPW)

Planning Policy Wales (PPW) updated in November 2016 by the Welsh Government (WG) provides the overarching national strategic guidance with regard to land use planning matters in Wales. Paragraph 4.4.3 states that Local Planning Authorities should:

‘Ensure that all local communities - both urban and rural - have sufficient good quality housing for their needs, including affordable housing for local needs and for special needs where appropriate, in safe neighbourhoods.’

To ‘establish the nature and level of housing requirements’ in the locality’s housing market and provide a robust ‘joint evidence base for local housing strategies and local development plans’ all Welsh local authorities are required to undertake Local Housing Market Assessments (TAN 2, Planning and Affordable Housing).

For clarification, affordable housing is defined as:

‘Affordable housing for the purposes of the land use planning system is housing where there are secure mechanisms in place to ensure that it is accessible to those who cannot afford market housing, both on first occupation and for subsequent occupiers. However, it is recognised that some schemes may provide for stair-casing to full ownership. Where this is the case, there must be secure arrangements in place to ensure the recycling of capital receipts to provide replacement affordable housing. Affordable housing includes social rented housing owned by local authorities and registered social landlords and intermediate housing where prices or rents are above those of social rent but below market housing prices or rents. All other types of housing are referred to as ‘market housing’, that is private housing for sale or rent where the price is set in the open market and occupation is not subject to control by the local planning authority (PPW, paragraph 9.2.14).

1.3 Local Development Plan (LDP)

Monmouthshire County Council adopted the Local Development Plan (LDP) on 27th February 2014. The chosen level of housing provision in the LDP was 4,500 dwellings over the plan period 2011-2021. The Plan

10 accommodates the level of growth indicated by the 2008-based Welsh Government Household projections. These projected an increase for the County of 3,969 households between 2011-2021 (or about 4,100 dwellings), with a small allowance (10 dwellings per year) to be met in that part of Monmouthshire included in the Brecon Beacons National Park, together with an additional requirement for the period 2006-2011.

The 2011-based Welsh Government household projections were issued after the LDP Examination had taken place. In any event, these indicated a much lower rate of household growth than suggested in the 2008- based projections and it is unlikely that these figures could have formed a satisfactory basis for the future planning of the County. Similarly, the recently published 2014-based household projections are also indicating a lower rate of household growth than that provided for in the adopted LDP.

A significant issue for Monmouthshire is the fact that house prices are high in relation to earnings so that there is a need for additional affordable housing in the County in both urban and rural areas, particularly for those that live and work in Monmouthshire.

It is an objective of the plan to provide a level of housing that is sufficient to provide a wide ranging choice of homes, both for existing and future residents, while ensuring that local needs for appropriate, affordable and accessible housing are met as far as possible, particularly in towns but also in rural areas, so long as such housing can assist in building sustainable rural communities.

Previous LHMA work identified an annual requirement for affordable housing of 96 dwellings per year, a 10-year requirement of 960 dwellings, which is the affordable housing need for the plan period 2011-2021 that the LDP seeks to address. Policy S4 of the LDP sets out the threshold levels at which affordable housing will be required, together with varying percentage requirements for affordable housing depending on the location of the development. Development sites with a capacity below the thresholds set out in Policy S4 are required to make a financial contribution towards the provision of affordable housing in the local planning authority area.

Four Annual Monitoring Reports (AMR) have been published since the adoption of the LDP. The last three AMRs have indicated that targets for housing (both market and affordable) are not being met and that the housing land supply has fallen to below 5 years (currently recorded at 3.9 years). A review of the Local Development Plan (LDP) has been undertaken and within the Review Report, it was concluded that the LDP should be revised and that this should take the form of a full revision procedure. Work has formally commenced on the Revised LDP with the

11 Delivery Agreement published in May 2018. The Revised LDP will cover the 2018 – 2033 period.

1.4 Methodology and Data Sources for Assessing Housing Need

This Local Housing Market Assessment has utilised the Welsh Government’s guidance documents:

Local Housing Market Assessment Guide, March 2006

and

Getting Started with your Local Housing Market Assessment - A Step-by-Step Guide, March 2012.

The guidance aims to enable local authorities to develop an understanding of the nature and level of housing demand and need in their local housing markets and outlines a quantitative approach to calculating housing need that can be used consistently across Local Authorities.

The guide uses the bath analogy developed by Bramley et al (1998, p.34) to assess housing need. Illustrated in Figure 1. The model conceptualises newly arising (housing) need as water from the taps, new (affordable) housing provision as water escaping through the plughole and the backlog (of housing need) as the level of water in the bath. The model has been expanded in the guide to take account of the broader housing market.

Figure 1 Bath Analogy

Existing households falling Newly arising need into need

Backlog of need

(bathwater)

Supply of affordable

housing

12 The LHMA provides a snapshot of the housing market at a particular point in time that is projected forward 5 years, however, the fluidity of the housing market requires regular updates to ensure a robust and valid evidence base. The data within this LHMA will be reviewed every two years.

For planning purposes, the outputs required from the LHMA can be derived using only secondary data, enabling local planning authorities to move quickly to the policy approach towards mixed communities set out in Planning Policy Wales, TAN 1 and TAN 2. Large-scale data collection exercises such as a local household surveys are not necessary to achieve the requirements of this policy approach provided that there is sufficient information from other sources to estimate housing requirements and therefore affordable housing need. Sources of information used to undertake this LHMA are:

Census Data (2011) Hometrack Intelligence Service CACI Pay Check Information Monmouthshire’s Common Housing Register

Monmouthshire County Council has a robust Common Housing Register that is utilised by all of the housing associations operating in Monmouthshire. The system is web based which allows applicants to contact the Homesearch Team via the website to update their details should their circumstances change.

The guide suggests that analysis should be undertaken at ward level, as data is available at this level for all stages of the analysis. However, it is acknowledged that some authorities may consider alternative spatial scales to be more appropriate. The housing market information in this assessment has been analysed at ward level, however, the towns of Abergavenny, Monmouth, Chepstow, Caldicot and Magor have been treated as sub market areas and the data for the wards within those areas has been amalgamated to give a housing need picture for each of these sub market areas. In the small market towns of Monmouthshire people do not normally express a wish to live in a particular ward and will go anywhere within the town where housing becomes available.

13 The wards combined for each sub market area are shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1 Sub Market Area/Wards

Sub Market Area Wards Abergavenny Cantref Lansdown Castle Mardy Croesonen Priory Grofield Monmouth Dixton with Osbaston Overmonnow Drybridge Wyesham Chepstow Larkfield St Kingsmark St Christopher’s Thornwell St Mary’s Caldicot Caldicot Castle Green Lane Dewstow Severn

West End Magor/Undy Mill The Elms

14

Housing Market

Analysis

2.1 Average House Prices

2.2 House Prices in Urban Areas

2.3 Price by Bed Count & Type

2.4 Affordability

2.5 Property Types

2.6 Travel to Work Patterns

2.7 Higher Managerial Socioeconomic Status

2.8 Housing Demand

2.9 Housing Turnover

2.10 Help to Buy

2.11 Private Rented Sector

2.5 Private Rented Sector

15 2. Housing Market Analysis

Monmouthshire is a predominantly rural county situated in southeast Wales and is noted for its rich and diverse landscape. It covers an area of approximately 88,000 hectares and shares a border with the neighbouring counties of Newport, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent and Powys in Wales and Gloucestershire and Herefordshire in England. The estimated population is 91,323 (Source: Census 2011). The main towns in the county are Abergavenny, Monmouth, Chepstow, Caldicot, Usk and Magor/Undy.

2.1 Average House Prices

An examination of average house prices in Monmouthshire indicates there has been a 28% increase in prices between January 2010 and May 2018. There has been an increase of 12.86% between July 2017 and September 2018. In September 2018, the average house price in Monmouthshire was £307,600.

Figure 2 illustrates the average house prices from January 2010 to May 2018.

Figure 2 Average House Prices within Monmouthshire

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

House House Prices (£) 100,000

50,000

0

Jul-12 Jul-17

Jan-10 Jan-15

Jun-10 Jun-15

Oct-13

Apr-11 Apr-16

Sep-11 Feb-12 Sep-16 Feb-17

Dec-12 Dec-17

Aug-14

Nov-10 Nov-15

Mar-14 May-18 May-13

Source: Hometrack July 2018

Bristol property prices have risen by 37%, which means that favourable prices in southeast Wales are proving attractive to house buyers. Information from an estate agent in Chepstow shows that 80% of people buying homes in Monmouthshire are coming from the Bristol area. With the electrification of the South Wales mainline, the planned South Wales metro, the proposed M4 relief road around Newport and the abolition of the Severn crossing tolls we can expect to see continued pressure on house prices in Monmouthshire. Source: BBC News, June 2017.

16 Of course, an examination of house prices in isolation fails to show critical factors affecting prices such as supply and demand, mortgage availability, new builds, the private rental sector etc. One simple and easy way to illustrate this facet, which is related to many of the factors detailed above, is the number of properties that have been either sold or valued. This data is a good general indicator of the local housing market.

In Monmouthshire’s case, Figure 3 shows that over the last two or three years the housing market in the county has been relatively strong, especially from September 2015 onwards. The figure for March 2018 surprisingly bucks the slight upward trend. There could be a number of reasons for this: late registrations of sales and valuations with not all the data included; reticence of potential sellers due to the uncertainly caused by the Brexit negotiations; the severe winter weather could have put people off moving until later in the year; and a reduced number of new build properties available for sale.

It will be useful to examine the data available at the end of 2018 to help clarify the reasons behind the lower numbers for the last period of the graph. Whatever happens over the next 12 months, Monmouthshire’s housing market will be protected from any extreme downturn in the market, because of its location. Households in the most expensive areas of Bristol and Cardiff often chose to relocate to Monmouthshire, keeping property prices high. Of course, this does impact on local people wishing to access the housing market in the county, hence the continued need for affordable housing.

Figure 3 Number of Properties Driving the Average Property Price within Monmouthshire

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Source: Hometrack July 2018

17

Within Monmouthshire, there are significant differences in house prices between different areas. Generally, the highest house prices are in the rural areas, but as there can often be periods where there are very few house sales in these parts of the county, it is difficult to provide accurate evidence to illustrate the fact. Therefore rather than attempt to show the average house prices of the rural areas of Monmouthshire, it is much more accurate to illustrate the house prices of the towns.

2.2 House Prices in Urban Areas

There are three main towns in Monmouthshire and one other part of the county that is built up as to be urban in nature. In the north east of the county lies Monmouth, which is very close to the border with England, has good road transport links and is known for its private schools. Although this area is perceived as wealthy, there are also areas of the town that are much less affluent.

Figure 4 Average House Prices in Monmouth

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000 House House (£) Price 100,000

50,000

0

Jun-13 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-09

Source: Hometrack July 2018

An examination of average house prices in Monmouth since 2009 indicates an increase of 9.04%. From a Monmouth perspective this might appear disappointingly low compared to some of the other urban areas in the county, but the very good supply of new properties in the town, with 367 new builds completed since 2011 (62 of which were affordable), has meant prices have been strong without the market overheating. A sign that local demand for housing remains strong is that new houses continue to be built and prices remain constant, but of course, if the market does start to drop then new development of properties will slow up.

18

There are four electoral wards that make up the town of Monmouth: Dixton with Osbaston, Drybridge, Overmonnow and Wyesham. Dixton with Osbaston ward has the highest house prices and Overmonnow ward the lowest. The average house price for each ward in June 2018 was:

Dixton with Osbaston £308,316 Drybridge £226,025 Overmonnow £169,575 Wyesham £199,298

Figure 5 Average House Prices in Monmouth by Ward

400,000

350,000 300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000 House House (£) Price 100,000

50,000

0

Jun-13 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Wyesham Drybridge Overmonnow Dixton with Osbaston

Source: Hometrack July 2018

In the north west of the county lies Abergavenny. The town has excellent road and rail transport links and a hospital. The town’s proximity to the Brecon Beacon National Park makes walking, cycling and many other outdoor activities readily accessible. The Abergavenny Food Festival and Cycling Festival attract thousands of visitors to the town annually.

All of the above make Abergavenny a sought after place to live and as a result has attracted developers to the town to take up the opportunities presented by the LDP.

19 Figure 6 Average House Prices in Abergavenny

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 House House Prices (£)

50,000

0

Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-09

Source: Hometrack July 2018

An examination of average house prices in Abergavenny since 2009 indicate an increase of 43.9%. There has been a significant uplift in the average house price for the town between June 2017 and June 2018 with 32% growth.

The most likely reason for the sharp increase in house prices in Abergavenny since June 2017, is the type of properties that have become available for sale. In the period April 2017 to March 2018 there were 61 new open market properties completed in Abergavenny, whereas over the previous 6-year period there has been an average of only 10 new open market properties completed each year. There have been 179 new build properties since 2011 (56 of which were affordable). The main house builders would have completed their market research for Abergavenny and provided new housing to meet the demand. This new housing would have attracted a new build premium. As additional sites are now under construction in the town, house prices are likely to plateau and should follow a similar pattern to the increases experienced in Monmouth.

There are seven electoral wards that make up Abergavenny: Cantref, Castle, Croesonen, Grofield, Lansdown, Mardy and Priory. Highest house prices are in Cantref and Mardy wards. The lowest are in Lansdown and Grofield wards. Average house prices for each ward in June 2018 are shown below:

Mardy £289,305 Cantref £278,886 Castle £212,623 Priory £186,866 Croesonen £185,606 Grofield £166,267 Lansdown £151,312

20

Figure 7 Average House Prices in Abergavenny by Ward

400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000

House House (£) Price 100,000 50,000

0

Jun-16 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Castle Croesonen Mardy Cantref Grofield Priory Lansdown

Source: Hometrack July 2018

In the south east of the county lies Chepstow, which is adjacent to the M48 and very close to the original Severn Bridge. The town sits at the entrance to the Wye Valley and its racecourse holds major events throughout the year. As the town is a short drive from Bristol, a high percentage of residents cross the River Severn daily to work.

Figure 8 Average House Prices in Chepstow

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

House House (£) Price 100,000

50,000

0

Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Source: Hometrack July 2018

21 An examination of average house prices in Chepstow since 2009 shows an increase of 33.4%. More recently, however, between June 2017 and June 2018 prices only rose by 4.2%. This figure may appear surprising following the announcement of the removal of the Severn Crossing tolls, but it is most likely to be explained by a market that had already had significant increases during a period of steady new build development, whereas in 2016, only eight new builds were completed and there were only two completed in 2017. With so few properties being made available for sale, rather than buyers continuing to force prices up, they have started to look further along the M4 corridor. This is evidenced by the rising prices in Caldicot, Magor/Undy and Newport. When new development does take place in Chepstow, it is likely that more buyers will return and house prices should start to increase steadily again

There are five electoral wards that make up Chepstow: Larkfield, St. Christopher’s, St. Mary’s, St. Kingsmark and Thornwell. St Kingsmark ward has the highest prices and St Christopher’s ward the lowest. The average house price for each ward in June 2018 was:

St Kingsmark £284,651 Larkfield £217,448 St Mary’s £179,547 Thornwell £179,514 St Christopher’s £151,864

Figure 9 Average House Prices in Chepstow by Ward

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

House House (£) Price 100,000

50,000

0

Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

St. Christopher's St. Kingsmark St. Mary's Thornwell Larkfield

Source: Hometrack July 2018

Also in the southern part of the county between Magor/Undy and Chepstow is Caldicot. With east to west traffic mostly accommodated along the M4, the town does not benefit from through traffic in the same

22 way as Abergavenny and Monmouth do, despite this Caldicot Castle and Country Park is a major tourist attraction. Caldicot‘s proximity to the UK motorway network is a big plus point for people wanting to live close to the Monmouthshire countryside yet commute to work.

Figure 10 Average House Prices in Caldicot

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 House House (£) Price 50,000

0

Jun-18 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

Dec-11 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-09

Source: Hometrack July 2018

An examination of average house prices in Caldicot since 2009 indicate an increase of 43%. Between June 2017 and June 2018 prices rose by 18.6%. Since 2011, there have been 214 new build completions (56 of which were affordable).

Five electoral wards make up Caldicot: Caldicot Castle, Dewstow, Green Lane, Severn and West End. Caldicot Castle ward has the highest house prices. West End and Dewstow wards have the lowest prices. Average house prices for each ward in June 2018 are shown below:

Caldicot Castle £223,476 Green Lane £162,488 Severn £160,732 Dewstow £149,888 West End £143,807

23 Figure 11 Average House Prices in Caldicot by Ward

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 House House (£) Price 50,000

0

Jun-18 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

Dec-11 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Caldicot Castle Dewstow Green Lane Severn West End

Source: Hometrack July 2018

In the southern part of Monmouthshire, in close proximity to the M4 lies the urban area known as Magor with Undy. This area is roughly half way between Newport and the Severn Crossings and has excellent transport links. Along the M4 in this area are located numerous businesses which utilise the easy access to the United Kingdom’s motorway network for distribution elsewhere.

Figure 12 Average House Prices in Magor with Undy

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 House House (£) Price

50,000

0

Jun-18 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

Dec-11 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-09

Source: Hometrack July 2018

An examination of average house prices in Magor with Undy since 2009 indicate an increase of 27.5%. Between June 2017 and June 2018 prices increased by 6.4%. Since 2011, there have been 118 new build completions (18 of which were affordable).

24 Two electoral wards make up Magor with Undy: Mill and The Elms. The highest house prices were in Mill ward. Average house prices for each ward in June 2018 are shown below:

Mill 235,687 The Elms 250,595

Figure 13 Average House Prices in Magor with Undy by Ward

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 House House (£) Pric 50,000

0

Jun-18 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

Dec-11 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Mill The Elms

Source: Hometrack July 2018

Almost geographically central to the other towns in Monmouthshire is the town of Usk. Unlike the other towns and urban areas of the county, Usk feels very rural in nature, as it is much smaller in scale. Usk is a short distance from the A449 and relatively easy to access via the A4042. This makes the town a desirable place to live. As well as good access to the main road network, Usk also has a lot of local employment including Monmouthshire’s County Hall, Coleg Gwent, Usk/Prescoed Prison and BAE Systems Munitions, Glascoed as well as many agricultural based businesses. The house prices in the town reflect its desirability, although as the amount of data is much less than in the other urban areas there is a fair degree of price fluctuation, which suggests some caution should be given to the figures. Average house price in Usk in July 2018 was £286,748. Since 2011, there have been 15 new build completions (no affordable).

25 Figure 14 Average House Prices in Usk

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000 House House (£) Price 100,000

50,000

0

Jul-12 Jul-17

Jan-10 Jan-15

Jun-10 Jun-15

Oct-13

Apr-11 Apr-16

Sep-11 Feb-12 Sep-16 Feb-17

Dec-12 Dec-17

Aug-14

Nov-10 Nov-15

Mar-14 May-18 May-13

Source: Hometrack 02/08/17

As can be seen from the various graphs, there are differences between each of the six urban areas in terms of average house price. It is clear that Monmouth is the most expensive area in which to purchase a home. Recently the house prices for Magor with Undy have risen, so currently the cheapest place to purchase a home is in Caldicot. There is quite a range in the average house prices in Abergavenny, which probably reflects the significant differences between certain areas in the town, with some houses being amongst the most expensive in the county. Average house prices in all of the towns are below the average for the county as a whole. This shows that in the rural areas of Monmouthshire house prices are generally a lot higher than in the towns. A major factor in the price differences between urban and rural areas is that the majority of housing stock in rural areas is large and detached so it must be remembered it is not just the location that affects the price.

2.3 Price by Bed Count and Type

An examination of the average house price by bed count and type (Figure 15), confirms all house types have increased in price and therefore all have contributed to the 28% overall increase in house prices since January 2010. As the greatest supply of housing is 3 bedroom, there is a premium to be paid for both 2 bedroom and 4 bedroom properties in the county. The current price per bedroom for a 2 bedroom house is £98,541 and for a 4 bedroom house the price per bedroom is £93,754. The price per bedroom for a 3 bedroom house is £81,922. When comparing these figures from the previous LHMA that was produced in 2014, there is a narrowing of the differences between the prices per

26 bedroom. One of the reasons for this is that not enough new houses are being built and demand is outstripping supply. Therefore, buyers are having to choose from the existing housing stock and as the majority of the stock is 3 bedrooms, prices have risen accordingly.

Looking ahead, a factor that may well impact on the price paid per bedroom is the size of new build properties. With some two bedroom houses being built less than 60 square metres, there could be greater demand for three bedroom ones which provide much more useable space. There will always be continued demand for second hand house sales, which accounted for over 90% of the total market in 2017.

Figure 15 Average House Price by Bed Count and Type

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000

House House Prices (£) 150,000 100,000 50,000

0

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17

May-16 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-17 May-18

1 bed Prices (Flat) 2 bed Prices (Flat) 2 bed Prices (House) 3 bed Prices (House) 4 bed Prices (House)

Source: Hometrack 07/08/17

27 2.4 Affordability

Average house prices in Monmouthshire are higher than in the rest of Wales. Currently the average is over £20,000 more than the second highest priced local authority, the Vale of Glamorgan.

Monmouthshire’s average house price has now risen from £301,572 in March 2018 to £307,600 in September 2018.

For comparison, average house prices in neighbouring authorities are:

 Newport £193,300  Blaenau Gwent £102,200  Torfaen £168,200  Powys £197,000  Vale of Glamorgan £278,800  Cardiff £250,400  Herefordshire £269,400  Forest of Dean £262,300  South Gloucestershire £307,400  Bristol £334,600

Source: Hometrack September 2018

Although average wages have increased this year, the high house prices in Monmouthshire still puts owning a home beyond the reach of many families who live and work in Monmouthshire. Average earnings for those who work in Monmouthshire are £539.00 per week. This is above the Wales average of £498.40 for the first time in six years, but still significantly below the weekly earnings of people who live in Monmouthshire and travel to work elsewhere. This figure is £619.60 per week.

The hourly rate for full time workers has increased from £12.19 in 2017 to £13.41 in 2018. This is the first time since 2008 that the Monmouthshire hourly rate is higher than the Welsh average. The weekly wage for full time female workers has also increased from £399.90 in 2017 to £495.30 in 2018. Average earnings for female workers have increased by 18.4% since 2012 compared to an increase of only 3.7% for male workers (female workers median £23,709/male workers median £27,726).

Source: NOMIS September 2018

28 Figure 16 Earnings of People who Live in Monmouthshire but Work Elsewhere

80,000.00

70,000.00

60,000.00

50,000.00

40,000.00

30,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

0.00

Source: ONS, October, 2018

2.5 Property Types and Tenure

Monmouthshire is a predominantly rural county and therefore a large proportion of its housing is situated in rural areas where the dwelling density is much less than in the towns. This is reflected in the property types in the county with the majority being detached. As Figure 17 shows, 44.2% of all property in Monmouthshire is detached. This compares to 27.7% in the rest of Wales. When comparing the other property types with the rest of the country, they are all lower than the Wales average, particularly so terraced properties. Terraced properties account for 27.7% of all housing in Wales, whereas in Monmouthshire only 17% of properties are terraced.

29 Figure 17 Property Types

50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 Percentage 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Property Types

Source: Hometrack September 2028

The most common tenure is ‘owns outright’, of which there are 15,274 (40% of all housing in the area). Figure 18 below gives a profile of the housing stock in Monmouthshire.

Figure 18 Profile of Housing Stock

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Owns Owns with Low cost Private Social Living rent Other outright a mortgage home rented rented free or loan ownership

Source: Hometrack September 2018

30 Figure 19 Percentage Tenure by Ward – Abergavenny HMA

Llanwenarth Ultra

Llanover

Llanfoist Fawr

Llanelly Hill

Crucorney

Priory

Mardy

Lansdown

Grofield

Croesonen

Castle

Cantref

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Other Private rented Social rented Owned with a mortgage or loan Owned outright

Source: Census 2011

Table 2

Ward All Households Cantref 904 Castle 821 Croesonen 1041 Grofield 911 Lansdown 952 Mardy 632 Priory 1047 Crucorney 857 Llanelly Hill 1716 Llanfoist Fawr 803 Llanover 922 Llanwenarth Ultra 622

31 Figure 20 PercentageTenure by Ward – Monmouth HMA

Source: Census 2011

Table 3

Wards All Households Dixton with Osbaston 1034 Drybridge 1426 Overmonnow 1100 Wyesham 960 Devauden 598 Goetre Fawr 993 Llanbadoc 514 Llangybi Fawr 719 Llantilio Crossenny 697 Mitchel Troy 500 Raglan 852 Trellech United 1064 Usk 1155

32 Figure 21 PercentageTenure by Ward – Chepstow HMA

Shirenewton Portskewett Rogiet The Elms Mill Severn West End Green Lane Dewstow Caldicot Castle Thornwell St. Mary's St. Kingsmark St. Christopher's Larkfield St. Arvans

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Other Private rented Social rented Owned with a mortgage or loan Owned outright

Source: Census 2011

Table 4

Wards All Households St. Arvans 659 Larkfield 820 St. Christopher's 1028 St. Kingsmark 1198 St. Mary's 964 Thornwell 1158 Caldicot Castle 791 Dewstow 824 Green Lane 860 West End 785 Severn 751 Mill 961 The Elms 1416 Rogiet 698 Portskewett 884 Shirenewton 868

33

2.7 Travel to Work

A closer examination of travel to work flows to and from Monmouthshire show there is a net change of -4,752 between those who come into the county to work and those who travel out. Figure 22 shows the travel to work flows to and from neighbouring areas and this illustrates just how many residents travel out of the county to work. An interesting statistic is that the average distance a Monmouthshire resident travels to work is 21.9 km, whereas the average distance people who work in the county travel is 15.7 km. Both Torfaen and Blaenau Gwent are very close to one of the major employers in Monmouthshire, Nevill Hall Hospital, therefore quite a high percentage of the overall travel to work flows would be to Abergavenny.

Figure 22 Travel to Work Flows – In and Out Migration

RCT Caerphilly Powys Blaenau Gwent Herefordshire Forest of Dean Bristol Cardiff Torfaen Newport

-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 Forest of Hereford Blaenau Newport Torfaen Cardiff Bristol Powys Caerphilly RCT Dean shire Gwent In Mig 1803 2459 725 167 1661 681 2279 617 814 306 Out Mig -3985 -2289 -1754 -1303 -1070 -837 -739 -580 -547 -238

Source: Census 2011

A large number of people opt to work from home, which obviously helps with transport costs and means much less impact on the environment than travelling by car. In urban areas of Monmouthshire 3.5% of those in employment work from home, whereas in rural areas over 8% of those in employment work from home. If broadband speeds and mobile phone signal were to be improved in the rural areas of the county, this could mean more people opting to work from home thus making Monmouthshire more attractive to potential buyers currently living outside of the county.

34 The attractiveness of living in Monmouthshire to such a wide area suggests the housing market in which the county sits is very wide. This fact greatly affects the ability of local people to be able to afford to live in the county. According to Hometrack’s Intermediate Housing Market statistics, 51.20% of 20-39 year olds living in Monmouthshire are unable to purchase at lower quartile prices for two and three bedroom houses.

An alternative way to consider this information is to examine the lower quartile house price to income ratio in the county, which is currently 9:1. This is a slight improvement since the last Local Housing Market Assessment when it was 10:1, but it is still very unrealistic and way out of reach for so many households.

Although the 9:1 headline figure is very high, there are wards in the county that are well in excess of this average. A closer examination of lower quartile house price to income ratios using Hometrack identifies which wards local people would find it particularly difficult to own a home in.

As table 5 shows, some these ratios are far in excess of the average for the county as a whole, meaning in all of these areas local people on local wages have no hope of owning a home of their own.

Table 5 Lower Quartile House Price to Income Ratios for a Sample of Rural Wards

Crucorney 10:1 Llanbadoc 6:1 Raglan 7:1 Mitchel Troy 16:1 Trellech 11:1 St Arvans 9:1 Portskewett 6:1 Goetre 7:1 Llanfoist 7:1 Llanelly Hill 7:1

Source: Hometrack September 2018

35 2.8 Higher Managerial Socio-economic Status

The percentage of Higher Managerial and Professional people living in Monmouthshire is the highest of all the local authorities in Wales and is very similar to councils across the south of England. The house purchasing ability of this socio-economic group is far greater than local people on local incomes, and is one of the reasons why house prices, especially in rural areas are so unaffordable.

With the removal of Severn Bridge tolls at the end of 2018, it is quite likely that there will be further counter-urbanisation from Bristol into Monmouthshire and house prices will be pushed up even higher. The easier indicators to confirm if this is the case will be average house prices, percentage of sale to asking price and time to sell in weeks.

Figure 23 Percentage of Higher Managerial and Professional Households

2.9 Housing Demand

Properties in Monmouthshire take, on average, 4.6 weeks to sell compared to the Wales average of 10.2 weeks. Properties also achieve, on average, 98.4% of their asking price compared to the Wales average of 95%.

36 Figure 24 Weeks to Sell

35

30

25

20

Weeks 15

10

5

0

Axis Title

Source: Hometrack September 2018

Figure 25 Sales to Asking Price – Percentage Achieved

100.00 99.00 98.00 97.00 96.00

95.00 Percentage Percentage 94.00 93.00 92.00

91.00

Jul2016 Jul2017

Jan 2018 Jan Jan 2017 Jan

Jun2017 Jun2018

Oct 2016 Oct 2017 Oct

Apr2017 Apr2018

Sep 2016 Sep Feb 2017 Feb 2017 Sep 2018 Feb

Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec

Aug 2016 Aug 2017 Aug

Nov 2016 Nov 2017 Nov

Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Mar May 2017 May May 2018 May

Source: Hometrack September 2018

2.10 Housing Turnover

Figures 26 and 27 show the annual turnover of private housing stock in Monmouthshire by broad type and age and by property type. The turnover has increased year on year since 2011. The total housing stock turnover in 2011 was 2.5%. This rose to 3.4% in 2014 and 4.2% in 2016. However, the turnover in 2017 has dropped slightly to 3.8%. The continued demand for housing in Monmouthshire is aided by developers building new homes, first time buyers being able to purchase under the Help to Buy scheme and prices being relatively low compared to Bristol and the other side of the Severn Bridge. In 2018 when the Severn Bridge

37 tolls were reduced, there was an increase in demand in southern parts of Monmouthshire and Newport. When the tolls are removed completely at the end of 2018, this pressure is likely to continue.

In terms of the type of property sold in Monmouthshire each year, all types of properties have increased year on year. The proportion of detached, semi-detached, terraced and flats sales, therefore, remain relative to each other, with detached property sales dominating the market at 47.9% of all sales, followed by semi-detached properties at 24.4% of the total market. Sales of flats and maisonettes only account for 7.3% of the market.

Figure 26 Monmouthshire’s Annual Housing Turnover by Broad Type and Age

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600

NumberHouses of 400 200 0 2014 2015 2016 2017

2nd Hand House Sales 2nd Hand Flat Sales New Build House Sales New Build Flat Sales

Source: Hometrack September 2018

38 Figure 27 Annual Turnover by Property Type

Chart Title 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600

NumberSales of 400 200 0 2014 2015 2016 2017

Terraced property sales Semi-detached property sales Detached property sales Flat/Maisonette property sales

Source: Hometrack September 2018

Help to Buy

Help to Buy Wales is the government’s initiative to help first time buyers and existing home owners purchase a new-build home up to a value of £300,000 with as little as a 5% deposit. It applies to all eligible buyers in Wales. All builders – large and small – are able to register with the scheme. In Phase 2 the Welsh Government is investing up to £290m in a second phase of the shared equity loan scheme, which will aim to support the construction of more than 6,000 additional new homes by 2021, significantly boosting Wales’ building industry and making home ownership achievable for thousands more families.

Figure 28 Completed Purchases by Local Authority and Date

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 YTD

Monmouthshire Newport Torfaen

39 Figure 29 Percentage of First Time Buyers by Local Authority

Percentage of First Time Buyers

58.1 69.6

77.5

Monmouthshire Newport Torfaen

Figure 30 Completed Purchases in Monmouthshire by House Prices

Figure 31 Completed Purchases in Monmouthshire by Number of Bedrooms

Two Bedrooms Three Bedrooms Four Bedrooms Five Bedrooms Unknown

Source of all Help to Buy Stats: Stats Wales, September 2018

40 2.11 Private Rented Sector

The private rented sector is important in meeting the housing requirements of those who are in housing need but cannot access social rented housing and those who cannot afford market housing. Since the change in legislation allowing Local Authorities to utilise the private rented sector to house homeless applicants it has become increasingly important to grow this sector in Monmouthshire.

A desktop study of the residential rental market within Monmouthshire was undertaken during October 2017. The study represents a snapshot in time using Hometrack’s comprehensive database of properties advertised to let within Monmouthshire during the period September 2016 to September 2017 and looked at the following:

 Rental activity within Monmouthshire  Distribution of properties and rental values by known bedroom category  Rental values and Local Housing Rates  Affordability

The following statements caveat the study:

 The collation of information and data on private rental activity, costs and affordability is not as reliable as collating data on housing sales due to the lack of data currently available. As a result the data is not robust and, therefore, only for a very broad analysis of the rental market in Monmouthshire and,  The data does not differentiate between rents for furnished/unfurnished properties, nor for whether utility bills and council tax are included/not included within the value of rent.  The report concentrated on properties where the bedroom category was known as this demonstrates aptly the availability and cost of family type properties in Monmouthshire.

Rental Activity

(a) Sample Size

The report looked at 249 properties that were advertised as being available to rent during the period September 2016 – September 2017, of which 160 were identified by bedroom category and 89 properties where the bedroom category was unknown.

The following graph shows the spread of the properties within the four main areas of Monmouthshire.

41 Figure 32 Number of Properties by Postal Code

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

NumberProperties of 20 10 0 NP7 Abergavenny NP15 Usk NP16 Chepstow NP25 Monmouth NP26 Caldicot

Properties by Bedroom Category Properties where Bedroom Category Unkown

(b) Mix of Property for Rent by Bedroom Category

The figure below shows the mix of listings over the last 12 months by known bedroom category. The largest share was two bedroom properties with 42% (76), followed by three bedroom properties with 39% (70). One and four bedroom properties taking 12% (21) and 8% (14) of the share respectively.

42 Figure 33 Number of Properties by Bedroom Category and Postal Code

NP7 Abergavenny NP15 Usk NP16 Chepstow NP25 Monmouth NP26 Caldicot

60 6

50

40

30 1 20 2 10 2

0

1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed

Current Rental Values (per Calendar Month)

Rents for 2 bedroom properties range from £375 to £1175 per calendar month and rents for 3 bedroom properties range from £550 to £1095 per calendar month.

Table 6 Local Housing Allowance Rates - 2017/2018

Local Housing Allowance (per Month) Type of Accommodation Weekly Monthly Shared Accommodation £54.08 £216.32 1 Bed £90.90 £363.60 2 Bed £115.07 £460.28 3 Bed £133.85 £535.40 4 Bed £173.08 £692.32

Table 7 Number of Properties Below and Above LHA

No. of No. of No. of properties properties properties Lowest Highest Sample between between Bedroom Median at or Value Value Size £1 - £10 £10 - £30 below over LHA over LHA LHA rate Rate Rate 1 £375.00 £675.00 £520.00 21 1 1 1 2 £425.00 £1,175.00 £595.50 76 4 0 6 3 £550.00 £1,095.00 £737.50 70 2 1 2 4+ £375.00 £1,100.00 £862.50 14 3 0 0

43 From Table above and the graph below it can be seen that across all properties where the bedroom category is known, only seven properties fall within the local housing allowance rate applicable to their bedroom category.

Figure 34 Number of Properties Below or Above LHA

70 66 65 60 50 40 30 18 20 11 6 10 4 3 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 Number of properties at or Number of properties Number of properties Number of properties below LHA rate by known between £1- £10 over LHA greater than LHA Rate (£10 greater than LHA Rate bedroom category by known bedroom - £30 per month) by known (£30+ per month) by category bedroom category known bedroom category

1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed

Affordability

When it comes to households being able to afford to rent privately, a comparison was made between the minimum gross annual household incomes required to be able to meet the rent liability for median rental values across the bedroom categories.

It is assumed that a maximum of 35% of net income can be spent on renting and that net income is 74% of gross income (accounting for tax and NI contributions). The calculation method and assumptions are in line with guidance on calculating affordability issued by the Homes and Communities Agency.

Table 8 below shows the gross family income required for different property sizes for both the lower quartile and median rents.

Table 8 Affordability – Gross Family Income Based on LQ and Median Rents by Known Bedroom Category

Property Type Median Rent Gross Income 1 Bed £520.00 £24,093 2 Bed £595.50 £27,591 3 Bed £737.50 £34,170 4 Bed £862.50 £39,961

44 Figure 35 Income Required to be Able to Afford Median Rent

Affordability £1,000.00 £45,000.00 £40,000.00 £800.00 £35,000.00 £30,000.00 £600.00 £25,000.00 £20,000.00 £400.00

£15,000.00 MedianRent £200.00 £10,000.00 £5,000.00

£0.00 £0.00 Gross Gross Annual Family Income 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed Axis Title

Median Rent Gross Annual Family Income

With gross median earnings for people working in Monmouthshire being £25,360.40 and for people residing in Monmouthshire but working outside the county being £32,416.80 it is clear that private rented properties will be unaffordable for a large number of households (Source: Nomis Official Labour Market Statistics).

45

Vulnerable Groups

3.1 BME Applicants

3.2 Gypsies and Travellers

3.3 Accommodation for Older People

3.4 Adapted Housing

3.5 Housing and Mental Health

46

3. Vulnerable Groups

3.1 Black and Minority Ethnic Applicants

The number of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) applicants on Monmouthshire’s Common Housing Register is very low with 90.38% of households on the register being white British. This correlates with the 2011 Census figures for the county. Tables 4 and 5 below show the BME make-up of the housing register and Monmouthshire as a whole.

Table 9 BME Groups on Housing Register

Ethnic Group Percentage

White; English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British 90.38%

White; Irish 0.34%

White; Other White 1.80%

Eastern European 0.17%

Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Black Caribbean 0.38%

Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; white and Black African 0.18%

Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Asian 0.08%

Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; Other Mixed 0.04%

Asian/Asian British; Indian 0.08%

Asian/Asian British; Pakistani 0%

Asian/Asian British; Bangladeshi 0.14%

Asian/Asian British; Chinese 0.11%

Asian/Asian British; Other Asian 0.18%

Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; African 0.30%

Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Caribbean 0.05%

Other Ethnic Group; Arab 0.04%

Other Ethnic Group/ Any Other Ethnic Group 0.19%

Not stated 5.55%

Source: Monmouthshire Homesearch – October 2017

47 Table 10 BME Groups – Monmouthshire

Ethnic Group Percentage White; English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British 96.10% White; Irish 0.43% White; Gypsy or Irish Traveller 0.10% White; Other White 1.49% Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Black Caribbean 0.19% Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; white and Black African 0.06% Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Asian 0.25% Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; Other Mixed 0.18% Asian/Asian British; Indian 0.27% Asian/Asian British; Pakistani 0.06% Asian/Asian British; Bangladeshi 0.04% Asian/Asian British; Chinese 0.21% Asian/Asian British; Other Asian 0.40% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; African 0.09% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Caribbean 0.05% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Other Black 0.02% Other Ethnic Group; Arab 0.08% Other Ethnic Group/ Any Other Ethnic Group 0.07%

Source: Census 2011

3.2 Gypsies and Travellers

Monmouthshire County Council conducted their Gypsy and Traveller Assessment (GTAA) during late summer – early autumn of 2015, and it was approved by Welsh Government in 2016. The Council adopted the GTAA in February 2016. The study assessed the need for additional authorised gypsy, traveller and travelling show people site provision in the County. This required the identification of whether there should be any extra site provision on public or private sites and whether or not there was any need to plan for the provision of transit sites/emergency stopping places.

Monmouthshire has a very low gypsy and traveller population, however, the GTAA found the population to be higher than previously identified through the 2011 census. The assessment estimated an unmet need for eight pitches to 2021, based on overcrowding, unauthorised occupation and the likelihood of cultural aversion to conventional housing. We are currently in the process of identifying suitable land to meet this additional need.

48 Monmouthshire also has two authorised private sites (7 pitches and 1 pitch), and one unauthorised private site. This site is currently the subject of a planning appeal for the development of four pitches.

With regard to a transit site, it is understood that the Welsh Government will be looking at travel patterns of the Gypsy and Traveller community in order to secure the provision of transit sites at a regional level.

A key data source relating to gypsy and traveller communities is the Gypsy and Traveller Caravan Survey conducted by each local authority in Wales. This is a count of caravans rather than households and is updated on a monthly basis.

Figure 36 shows the authorised and unauthorised gypsy and traveller caravan count for Monmouthshire and neighbouring Welsh local authorities between July 2017 and January 2018. It is evident from the figures that in comparison with other authorities Monmouthshire appears to have a very low gypsy and traveller population. The Welsh Gypsy & Traveller count carried out on 19th July 2018 reported 1064 caravans. There are currently 130 sites across Wales. Comparing July 2017 and July 2018 for all Wales the number of caravans on authorised sites has increased by 6%. In Wales 6% of caravans are on unauthorised sites owned by Gypsies and Travellers and 10% on unauthorised sites not owned by Gypsies and Travellers. There has been a 32% increase across Wales on the number of caravans on unauthorised sites.

Figure 36 Gypsy & Traveller Caravan Sites - Monmouthshire and Surrounding Area: 18 July, 2018

Unauthorised Not Tolerated-Land not owned by G&T

Unauthorised Tolerated-Land not owned by G&T

Unauthorised Not Tolerated-G&T Own Land

Unauthorised Tolerated-G&T Own Land

Authorised Private

Authorised LA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Number of Caravans

Powys Torfaen Newport Monmouthshire

49

3.3 Accommodation for Older People

Monmouthshire is an attractive place to live, is readily accessible and attracts a relatively high level of in-migration. Especially among people seeking a pleasant location for retirement. Due to the continual growth of life expectancy, there is a trend towards longer periods of frailty and an increased demand for suitable housing.

Downsizing is a key driver for thinking about moving and research undertaken by the Council and by partner RSLs has shown that bungalows are by far the most desirable type of accommodation, both for older people who can afford to meet their own housing need and for those on the housing register. Small flatted developments in market towns are also popular.

OAP Flats, Abergavenny

The Council plans to negotiate some affordable bungalows on all future development sites. Developers being more willing to offer a product that meets older people’s reasonable aspirations and expectations could

address the lack of specialist accommodation in the private sector.

The LHMA identified a need for an additional 55 affordable homes per year for older people using data from bands 1 to 4 of the Common Housing Register (CHR). However, this figure is likely to be higher if

older people from band 5 of the CHR were included in the calculation. Households in band 5 are not considered to be in housing need as they are homeowners, have sufficient resources or are adequately housed tenants. There are 181 homeowners over the age of 60 in band 5, and it is fair to assume that a proportion of those will have health issues in the future that will mean that they have to move to more suitable

50 accommodation such as a bungalow or ground floor flat. Although they may be homeowners, they may not have enough equity in their home to source suitable single storey or adapted accommodation without assistance.

Figure 37 Residents of Monmouthshire with a Limiting Long Term Illness - Predicted to 2035

9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000

3,000 NumberPeople of 2,000 1,000 0 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 People aged 55-64 People aged 65-74 People aged 75

Source: Daffodil, September 2018

Figure 38 Residents of Monmouthshire unable to manage at least one activity on their own - Predicted to 2035

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500 NumberPeople of 1000

500

0 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 People aged 65-69 People aged 70-74 People aged 75-79 People aged 80-84 People aged 85

Source: Daffodil, September 2018

The committed supply of OAP housing over the next five years is 78 units and the average relets of housing association homes is 95 per year.

51 There is an over-supply of unsuitable OAP units in some areas of the county, but this is likely to be addressed over the next few years as our RSL partners reconfigure and replace existing sheltered accommodation that is no longer fit for purpose.

Figure 39 Housing Tenure of People Aged 65 and Over

Private rented

Housing association

Owner-occupied

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Source: Daffodil, September 2018

Figure 40 People Over the Age of 65 Receiving Residential Care in Monmouthshire

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

People aged 65-74 receiving residential services People aged 75-84 receiving residential services People aged 85 and over receiving residential services

Source: Stats Wales, Knowledge and Analytical Services, Welsh Government: Adults receiving services by local authority, client category and age group, Table CARE0006

52 When considering older persons housing needs it is important to factor in the increasing number of older people with dementia, particularly women. Figure 41 shows the expected increase in people with dementia until 2035.

Figure 41 Residents of Monmouthshire Aged 65+ Predicted to Have Dementia – Projected to 2035

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800

600 NumberPeople of 400 200 0 People aged 65- People aged 70- People aged 75- People aged 80- People aged 85+ 69 74 79 84

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: Daffodil, September 2018

Monmouthshire County Council is in the process of commissioning a specialist Care Home for dementia sufferers and this will be built within the next 5 years.

53

3.4 Adapted Housing

The LHMA has identified that there will be a need for five units of purpose built adapted accommodation per year. This is likely to be an underestimate as it is known that many people requiring adapted accommodation do not register due to the lack of suitable adapted units within the county. The majority of need for adapted properties is for low- level adaptations rather than purpose built accommodation and this is being driven by Monmouthshire’s ageing population. In the last five years, six fully adapted and eleven lifetime homes bungalows have been delivered in Monmouthshire.

3.5 Housing and Mental Health

Housing is a particular issue for people with mental ill health, as poor housing conditions and unstable tenancies can exacerbate mental health problems, while periods of illness can in turn lead to tenancy breakdown. Minimising exposure to risk factors such as domestic abuse, overcrowding and homelessness can reduce the prevalence of mental illness. The number of people with mental ill health in Monmouthshire presenting as homeless is shown in Table 6 below. In addition, Monmouthshire Gateway Housing Support Service manages delivery of support services to people who are homeless or threatened with homelessness. During 2017/2018 the Gateway received a total of 1,428 referrals, of which 34.24% identified that mental health issues were their lead area of need. April – end October 2018 saw 760 referrals received with 36.18% identifying mental health as a lead need.

Table 11 People with Mental Health Issues Presenting as Homeless

Year Presenting as Homeless Mental Health Issues Percentage

2012/2013 220 33 15% 2013/2014 170 15 11% 2014/2015 112 12 10% 2015/2016 Data unavailable 2016/2017 205 27 13% 2017/2018 186 56 30%

In Monmouthshire, housing officers are working closely with social care and mental health practitioners to improve access to secure affordable housing for people suffering from mental ill-health by ensuring that those in housing need are registered on Homesearch. By working together, Monmouthshire County Council Housing and Social Care, Aneurin Bevan Health Board and partner RSLs can make transition from hospital to supported tenancies easier. Six apartments have been provided in

54 Abergavenny to allow mental health clients currently in hospital to live independently with support provision. Four units for people with learning disabilities have been delivered in Monmouth and another five in Abergavenny. The five units in Abergavenny are supported housing, and we are currently seeking a site in the south of the county to make similar provision.

Supported Housing for people with a learning Disability, Abergavenny

Table 12 People Aged 16 and Over Predicted to Have a Mental

Health Problem – Projected to 2035

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 People aged 16 and over predicted to have a common 12,444 12,502 12,580 12,588 12,515 mental disorder

People aged 16 and over predicted to have a borderline 349 350 352 353 351 personality disorder

People aged 16 and over predicted to have an antisocial 265 266 268 267 265 personality disorder

People aged 16 and over predicted to have psychotic 309 311 313 313 311 disorder

People aged 16 and over predicted to have two or more 5,541 5,568 5,603 5,603 5,567 psychiatric disorders

55

Backlog of Need

4.1 Definition

4.2 Total Backlog

56

4. Backlog of Need

4.1 Definition

The backlog of affordable housing need can be defined as the current number of households ‘lacking their own housing or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the local housing market without assistance’ (LHMA Guide, 2006, paragraph 6.5). Monmouthshire operates a Common Housing Register that is utilised by all housing associations operating in the County. All applicants for all tenures are registered on one list, which ensures that there is no double counting. This register also captures homeless households that the local authority has a statutory duty to assist.

Housing registers include a proportion of applicants who are not in housing need and the guidance recommends that a reduction be made to account for this. For the purposes of this assessment, those households with sufficient financial resources to satisfy their housing need on the open market and those households considered to be adequately housed were excluded.

4.2 Total Backlog

Tables 7 – 9 display the following data:

Table 7 shows the gross backlog of households in affordable housing need per annum until 2022.

Table 8 shows a further breakdown of this need by bedroom size and property type.

Table 9 shows the backlog of households in need of intermediate rented housing and low cost home ownership by ward/sub market area and number of beds.

57 Table 12 Gross Backlog of Affordable Housing Need/Annum

Gross Annual Gross Annual Gross Annual Ward/Sub Market Intermediate Social Rented LCHO Housing Area Rented Housing Housing Need Need Need Abergavenny 106.20 1.80 3.40

Caerwent 4.40 0.00 0.00

Caldicot 64.40 2.80 3.80

Chepstow 88.60 0.80 4.00

Crucorney 3.40 0.00 0.00

Devauden 5.40 0.00 0.00

Goytre Fawr 0.20 0.60 0.60

Llanbadoc 11.80 0.00 0.00

Llanelly Hill 8.20 0.00 0.60

Llanfoist Fawr 1.20 0.20 0.40

Llangybi Fawr 1.80 0.00 0.00

Llanover 1.20 0.00 0.00 Llantilio Crossenny 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llanwenarth Ultra 0.00 0.00 0.00 Magor/Undy 14.00 0.40 0.60

Mitchel Troy 3.80 0.00 0.20 Monmouth 57.60 2.20 3.00 Portskewett 3.80 0.20 0.20

Raglan 8.80 0.00 0.00

Rogiet 9.40 0.00 0.20

Shirenewton 2.40 0.00 0.00

St Arvans 3.00 0.00 0.00

Trellech United 5.20 0.00 0.00

Usk 11.00 0.40 1.20

Total 415.80 9.40 18.20 Figures are number of households.

IR = Intermediate Rent (a rent that is above social rent and below market rent) LCHO = Low Cost Home Ownership (shared equity)

58 Table 13 Backlog of Social Rented Housing Need by Ward/Sub Market Area and Property Type

1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Grand Ward Total AH GN OAP AH GN OAP AH GN OAP AH GN GN

Abergavenny 2.60 49.80 10.80 0.80 27.00 3.00 0.40 10.20 0.40 0.00 0.80 0.40 106.20 Caerwent 0.00 2.00 0.60 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 4.40 Caldicot 1.40 24.20 4.80 0.20 24.60 0.60 0.00 8.00 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.20 64.40 Chepstow 0.60 40.00 7.00 0.80 26.00 1.80 0.20 10.80 0.20 0.00 1.00 0.20 88.60 Crucorney 0.00 0.80 0.20 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.20 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.40 Devauden 0.00 2.40 0.60 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 5.40 Goetre Fawr 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 Llanbadoc 0.40 4.80 0.80 0.00 4.00 0.20 0.00 1.20 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.00 11.80 Llanelly Hill 0.00 3.60 0.60 0.00 2.20 0.40 0.00 0.80 0.20 0.00 0.40 0.00 8.20 Llanfoist Fawr 0.00 0.60 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Llangybi Fawr 0.00 1.00 0.20 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.80 Llanover 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 Llantilio Crossenny 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llanwenarth Ultra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Magor/Undy 0.20 5.00 2.60 0.00 4.40 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.00 Mitchel Troy 0.20 1.00 0.40 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 3.80 Monmouth 0.60 22.80 7.60 0.80 14.80 0.80 0.00 8.60 0.40 0.00 1.20 0.00 57.60 Portskewett 0.00 1.00 0.60 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 Raglan 0.00 3.00 2.20 0.20 2.00 0.20 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 8.80 Rogiet 0.00 4.00 0.80 0.00 2.40 0.20 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.40 Shirenewton 0.00 0.80 0.80 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 St Arvans 0.00 1.00 0.40 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Trellech United 0.00 1.40 0.60 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 Usk 0.00 3.80 3.20 0.00 3.00 0.40 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.00 Total 6.00 173.60 45.40 2.80 121.60 7.60 1.00 50.40 2.00 0.20 4.40 0.80 415.80

Key

AH = Adapted Housing GN = General Needs Housing OAP = Older Persons Housing

59 Table 14 Backlog of Intermediate Rent and LCHO Need by Ward/Sub Market Area and Number of Beds

IR 1 IR 2 IR 3 LCHO 2 LCHO 3 Ward/Sub Market Area Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Abergavenny 0.80 1.00 0.00 2.20 1.20 Caerwent 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Caldicot 2.20 0.40 0.20 3.00 0.80 Chepstow 0.40 0.40 0.00 2.20 1.80 Crucorney 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Devauden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Goytre Fawr 0.20 0.40 0.00 0.40 0.20 Llanbadoc 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llanelly Hill 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.20 Llanfoist Fawr 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.40 0.00 Llangybi Fawr 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llanover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llantilio Crossenny 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Llanwenarth Ultra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Magor/Undy 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.20 Mitchel Troy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 Monmouth 1.20 0.60 0.40 2.40 0.60 Portskewett 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 Raglan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rogiet 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 Shirenewton 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 St Arvans 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Trellech United 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Usk 0.20 0.20 0.00 1.00 0.20 Total 5.60 3.20 0.60 12.80 5.40

Key

IR = Intermediate Rent (a rent that is above social rent and below market rent) LCHO = Low Cost Home Ownership (shared equity)

60

Newly Arising Need

5.1 Definition

5.2 Household Projections

5.3 New Households Priced Out

of the Market

5.4 Existing Households Falling

into to Need

61 5. Newly Arising Need

5.1 Definition

Newly arising need is defined as the projected number of households in housing need that will form during the LHMA period. This involves making an estimate of the future change in the number of new households that will form on an annual basis. The WG Guidance documents recommend that the most recent WG Household Projections be used provided that they are fit for purpose. The guidance also states that it is important to use the same data sources as those used for an authority’s Local Development Plan (LDP).

5.2 Household Projections

Table 15 2014 Based Household Projections

Overall Change 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Change 1 person 11440 11563 11685 11807 11944 12063 623 2 person (no 14365 14469 14575 14669 14761 14849 484 children) 2 person (1 adult, 1 898 890 883 876 869 863 -35 child) 3 person (no 2788 2795 2802 2803 2797 2792 4 children) 3 person (2 adults, 1 2539 2527 2513 2502 2491 2480 -59 child) 3 person (1 adult, 2 595 596 597 599 601 602 7 children 4 person (no 907 914 921 926 928 929 22 children) 4 person (2+ adults 3771 3732 3693 3661 3630 3604 -168 1+ children) 4 person (1 adult, 3 201 202 204 205 207 209 8 children) 5 + person (no 253 261 268 273 278 282 29 children) 5 + person (2+ 1870 1848 1828 1810 1792 1777 -93 adults, 1+ children) 5 + person (1 adult, 83 85 86 88 90 91 8 4+ children) Total 39710 39883 40055 40218 40388 40541 831

Figures may not sum due to rounding

As can be seen in Table 10, much of this change is accounted for amongst smaller households, for example, 623 one-person households and 484 two-person households with no children. However it should not be assumed that there will be an equivalent increase in the demand for

62 smaller affordable properties as some of these newly forming households will satisfy their own need in the private sector and may chose a larger property than they actually need should their financial circumstances allow.

Welsh Government household projections are only available at local authority level and in order to disaggregate population growth to ward level a further set of calculations is required using household census data. The 2011 Census data was used to calculate the proportion of households residing within each ward. These proportions were then applied to the 831 figure to provide an estimated breakdown of emerging households at electoral ward level. Table 12 shows the figures disaggregated to ward level.

After disaggregating the household projection figures to electoral wards, a further calculation was required to convert these figures into property types. The Common Housing Register Allocations Policy shown in Table 11 below was then used to determine the number of bedrooms suitable for each household category.

Table 16 Allocations Policy

Accommodation Size Household Types Change

1 bedroom 1 person 596 2 person (no children) 575

2 bedroom 2 person (1 adult, 1 child) -51 3 person (no children) 86 3 person (2 adults, 1 child) -88

3 bedroom 3 person (1 adult, 2 children) -3 4 person (no children) 68 4 person (2+ adults, 1+ child) -234

4 bedroom 4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 5 5+ person (no children) 46

5 bedroom 5+ person (2+ adults, 1+ children) -116 5+ person (1 adult, 4+ children) 5 Total 889

The results of this exercise are shown in Table 13.

63 Table 17 Household Projections Disaggregated to Wards

Census-All Census Household Total Annual Wards Households Area Proportions Growth Growth Abergavenny 6308 0.16 137.11 27.42 Caerwent 728 0.02 15.82 3.16 Caldicot 4011 0.10 87.18 17.44 Chepstow 5168 0.14 112.33 22.47 Crucorney 857 0.02 18.63 3.73 Devauden 598 0.02 13.00 2.60 Goetre Fawr 993 0.03 21.58 4.32 Llanbadoc 514 0.01 11.17 2.23 Llanelly Hill 1716 0.04 37.30 7.46 Llanfoist Fawr 803 0.02 17.45 3.49 Llangybi Fawr 719 0.02 15.63 3.13 Llanover 922 0.02 20.04 4.01 Llantilio Crossenny 697 0.02 15.15 3.03 Llanwenarth Ultra 622 0.02 13.52 2.70 Magor/Undy 2377 0.06 51.66 10.33 Mitchel Troy 500 0.01 10.87 2.17 Monmouth 4520 0.12 98.24 19.65 Portskewett 884 0.02 19.21 3.84 Raglan 852 0.02 18.52 3.70 Rogiet 698 0.02 15.17 3.03 Shirenewton 868 0.02 18.87 3.77 St Arvans 659 0.02 14.32 2.86 Trellech United 1064 0.03 23.13 4.63 Usk 1155 0.03 26.10 5.02 Total 38233 1 831 166.2

Footnote:

Census-All Households Figures divided by Total of All Households Figure (38,233) = Area Proportions.

Area Proportion figures multiplied by projected change 2018-2023 figure of 831 = Total Growth.

Total Growth divided by 5 gives Annual Growth.

64 Table 18 Projected Household Increase 2018-2023 Disaggregated by Ward

Social Rent Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 5 Bed Need

Abergavenny 37.62 50.10 -4.06 -6.26 1.70 -3.86

Caerwent 1.89 2.52 -0.20 -0.31 0.09 -0.19

Caldicot 22.17 29.53 -2.39 -3.69 1.00 -2.27

Chepstow 22.11 29.44 -2.39 -3.68 1.00 -2.27

Crucorney 2.50 3.33 -0.27 -0.42 0.11 -0.26

Devauden 1.10 1.46 -0.12 -0.18 0.05 -0.11

Goytre Fawr 5.08 6.76 -0.55 -0.84 0.23 -0.52

Llanbadoc 0.91 1.21 -0.10 -0.15 0.04 -0.09

Llanelly Hill 6.43 8.56 -0.69 -1.07 0.29 -0.66

Llanfoist Fawr 3.07 4.09 -0.33 -0.51 0.14 -0.31

Llangybi Fawr 1.55 2.06 -0.17 -0.26 0.07 -0.16

Llanover 2.52 3.35 -0.27 -0.42 0.11 -0.26

Llantilio 1.90 2.53 -0.21 -0.32 0.09 -0.19 Crossenny Llanwenarth Ultra 2.21 2.95 -0.24 -0.37 0.10 -0.23

Magor/Undy 5.75 7.65 -0.62 -0.96 0.26 -0.59

Mitchel Troy 1.22 1.63 -0.13 -0.20 0.06 -0.13

Monmouth 22.04 29.35 -2.38 -3.67 0.99 -2.26

Portskewett 2.96 3.94 -0.32 -0.49 0.13 -0.30

Raglan 4.53 6.04 -0.49 -0.75 0.20 -0.46

Rogiet 2.84 3.78 -0.31 -0.47 0.13 -0.29

Shirenewton 1.19 1.58 -0.13 -0.20 0.05 -0.12

St Arvans 1.35 1.79 -0.15 -0.22 0.06 -0.14

Trellech United 1.70 2.26 -0.18 -0.28 0.08 -0.17

Usk 5.04 6.71 -0.54 -0.84 0.23 -0.52

Total 159.66 212.63 -17.24 -26.56 7.20 -16.36

The figures in Table 13 are the projected newly arising need 2018-2023 and do not take into account the backlog of housing need.

65 5.3 New Households Priced Out of the Market

We cannot assume that all of the newly emerging households will require affordable housing, as many households will prefer to meet their own housing need in the private sector, through either buying their own home or renting in the private sector. An important part of the LHMA, therefore, is to calculate the proportion of households priced out of the housing market, which gives you the number of additional new households in need of affordable housing.

Household income data from CACI Paycheck was used together with house price and market rent information from Hometrack to help estimate how many newly forming households will be in housing need for social rent, intermediate rent and low cost home ownership. Two entry-level house prices were calculated for the county using Hometrack property price data. The Welsh Government guidance figure of 3.5 times the gross household income of a single earner household was used to calculate the amount that first time buyers could expect to borrow (WAG, March 2006, 6.13).

The annual growth figures in Table 14 below for Abergavenny, Caldicot, Chepstow, Monmouth and Magor/Undy are an average of the annual growth figures for the wards in each of those housing market areas.

66 Table 19 Number of Emerging Households Priced out of Housing Market Entry Level

Total Able to afford a In need of In need of In need of Ward Growth mortgage LCHO IR SR Abergavenny 137.11 43.19 43.27 12.90 37.62 Caerwent 15.82 8.38 4.40 1.15 1.89 Caldicot 87.18 22.75 31.59 10.69 22.17 Chepstow 112.33 37.54 40.99 11.74 22.11 Crucorney 18.63 6.90 7.48 1.70 2.50 Devauden 13.00 7.77 3.35 0.80 1.10 Goytre Fawr 21.58 8.47 8.03 0.00 5.08 Llanbadoc 11.17 5.80 3.00 0.68 0.91 Llanelly Hill 37.30 13.39 11.54 3.49 6.43 Llanfoist Fawr 17.45 7.19 5.50 1.73 3.07 Llangybi Fawr 15.63 8.90 4.16 1.04 1.55 Llanover 20.04 8.24 6.19 3.28 2.52 Llantilio Crossenny 15.15 6.21 5.79 1.27 1.90 Llanwenarth Ultra 13.52 4.83 5.20 1.32 2.21 Magor/Undy 51.66 25.48 17.10 3.40 5.75 Mitchel Troy 10.87 4.90 3.95 0.84 1.22 Monmouth 98.24 32.96 32.60 10.59 22.04 Portskewett 19.21 7.35 7.16 1.72 2.96 Raglan 18.52 7.52 6.46 0.00 4.53 Rogiet 15.17 5.25 5.62 1.53 2.84 Shirenewton 18.87 11.48 5.33 0.89 1.19 St Arvans 14.32 7.23 4.84 0.95 1.35 Trellech United 23.13 13.08 7.16 1.25 1.70 Usk 25.10 9.52 8.68 2.24 5.04 Total 831.00 314.35 279.39 75.20 159.66 Table does not sum due to rounding of figures

Table 14 shows the total projected household growth for each ward together with the number of households able to afford a mortgage and the number of households priced out of the market (Source: CACI 2015 and Hometrack 25/2/25)

5.4 Existing Households Falling into Need

The LHMA also needs to take account of existing households that may fall into need each year due to homelessness. WG guidance states that this should be estimated by looking at recent trends. Ministry of Justice data is available at Local Authority level and can be used to identify the number of mortgage and landlord possession claims leading to orders. The analysis of this data together with the average homelessness figure allows an annual average figure to be established and projected forward for each year of the LHMA period.

67 Over the period 2013/14 to 2017/18 there were 277 mortgage possession claims and 320 landlord possession claims leading to orders. During the same period, there were 287 homeless presentations. The homeless presentations divided by 5 gives an average of 57.40 existing households falling into need each year until 2023. To give an estimation of distribution at ward level the census ward level proportions were applied to the 57.50 figure and an indicative breakdown of bedroom size required was factored in by applying the proportionate demand identified from the Common Housing Register. The results are shown in Table 15.

Table 20 Number of Existing Households Falling into Need per Annum

Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed Total Abergavenny 4.32 3.10 1.22 0.82 9.47 Caerwent 0.50 0.36 0.14 0.10 1.09 Caldicot 2.75 1.97 0.78 0.52 6.02 Chepstow 3.54 2.54 1.00 0.68 7.76 Crucorney 0.59 0.42 0.17 0.11 1.29 Devauden 0.41 0.29 0.12 0.08 0.90 Goytre Fawr 0.68 0.49 0.19 0.13 1.49 Llanbadoc 0.35 0.25 0.10 0.07 0.77 Llanelly Hill 1.18 0.84 0.33 0.22 2.58 Llanfoist Fawr 0.55 0.39 0.16 0.11 1.21 Llangybi Fawr 0.49 0.35 0.14 0.09 1.08 Llanover 0.63 0.45 0.18 0.12 1.38 Llantilio Crossenny 0.48 0.34 0.13 0.09 1.05 Llanwenarth Ultra 0.43 0.31 0.12 0.08 0.93 Magor/Undy 1.63 1.17 0.46 0.31 3.57 Mitchel Troy 0.34 0.25 0.10 0.07 0.75 Monmouth 3.10 2.22 0.87 0.59 6.79 Portskewett 0.61 0.43 0.17 0.12 1.33 Raglan 0.58 0.42 0.16 0.11 1.28 Rogiet 0.48 0.34 0.14 0.09 1.05 Shirenewton 0.59 0.43 0.17 0.11 1.30 St Arvans 0.45 0.32 0.13 0.09 0.99 Trellech United 0.73 0.52 0.21 0.14 1.60 Usk 0.79 0.57 0.22 0.15 1.73 Total 26.20 18.80 7.40 5.00 57.39

68

Affordable Supply

6.1 Social Housing Stock

6.2 Social Housing Lettings

6.3 Committed Supply

4.4 Total Annual Supply

69

6. Affordable Housing Supply

WG guidance suggests that the supply of affordable housing expected over the next five years should be considered in order to counterbalance demand from newly arising and backlog need. The two main strands to this analysis are projected lets and committed supply.

6.1 Existing Affordable Housing Stock (RSLs)

Tables 21 – 27 show the housing stock held by RSLs in Monmouthshire. The stock for each RSL has been split between general needs and OAP and disaggregated to ward level. Table 28 shows the disabled/adapted housing stock owned and managed by MHA and Melin Homes. Charter Housing currently has no adapted housing in Monmouthshire.

Table 21 MHA General Needs Stock

Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 5 Bed Total Abergavenny 217 262 295 27 0 801 Caerwent 0 6 19 0 1 26 Caldicot 70 246 186 7 0 509 Chepstow 63 85 196 9 0 353 Crucorney 0 6 11 0 0 17 Devauden 0 2 3 0 0 5 Goytre Fawr 19 5 24 2 0 50 Llanbadoc 0 2 4 0 0 6 Llanelly Hill 12 19 73 0 0 104 Llanfoist Fawr 3 40 16 6 0 65 Llangybi Fawr 0 0 10 0 0 10 Llanover 1 8 12 0 0 21 Llantilio Crossenny 0 0 10 0 0 10 Llanwenarth Ultra 0 25 26 2 0 53 Magor/Undy 0 3 20 0 0 23 Mitchel Troy 0 11 6 0 0 17 Monmouth 112 117 177 12 0 418 Portskewett 9 6 11 0 0 26 Raglan 0 12 17 2 0 31 Rogiet 1 0 26 0 0 27 St Arvans 0 1 18 0 0 19 Shirenewton 2 9 9 0 0 20 Trellech United 4 9 15 0 0 28 Usk 16 3 13 0 0 32 Total Stock 529 877 1197 67 1 2671

70 Table 22 MHA OAP Stock

Ward OAP Sheltered Total 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 1 Bed 2 Bed Abergavenny 89 26 0 48 35 198 Caerwent 17 3 0 0 0 20 Caldicot 83 12 0 16 15 126 Chepstow 6 0 0 52 20 78 Crucorney 8 6 0 0 0 14 Devauden 8 6 0 0 0 14 Goytre Fawr 5 9 0 0 0 14 Llanbadoc 0 0 0 0 0 0 Llanelly Hill 27 5 0 0 0 32 Llanfoist Fawr 11 0 0 0 0 11 Llangybi Fawr 14 13 0 0 0 27 Llanover 27 7 0 0 0 34 Llantilio Crossenny 0 10 0 0 0 10 Llanwenarth Ultra 19 0 0 0 0 19 Magor/Undy 5 1 0 41 0 47 Mitchel Troy 0 13 0 0 0 13 Monmouth 47 21 0 14 6 88 Portskewett 31 0 0 0 0 31 Raglan 30 24 1 0 0 55 Rogiet 16 14 0 0 0 30 St Arvans 11 5 0 0 0 16 Shirenewton 7 0 0 0 0 7 Trelleck United 0 0 0 18 0 18 Usk 0 6 0 49 2 57 Total 461 181 1 238 78 959

Table 23 Melin Homes General Needs Stock

Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 6 Bed Total Abergavenny 32 61 56 4 0 153 Caerwent 12 2 6 2 0 22 Caldicot 31 35 48 6 0 120 Chepstow 24 26 31 5 0 86 Crucorney 0 4 4 0 0 8 Goytre Fawr 6 9 7 1 0 23 Llanelly Hill 9 4 1 2 0 16 Llanfoist Fawr 16 7 9 4 0 36 Magor/Undy 16 9 12 3 0 40 Monmouth 43 69 38 4 0 154 Portskewett 4 2 0 0 6 Rogiet 25 11 7 3 1 47 Total Stock 218 239 219 34 1 711

71 Table 24 Melin Homes OAP Stock

OAP Sheltered Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed Bedsit 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Total Abergavenny 11 13 20 16 2 1 63 Caerwent 3 10 0 0 0 0 13 Caldicot 1 4 0 0 0 0 5 Goytre Fawr 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 Llanfoist Fawr 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 Llanover 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 Monmouth 1 7 0 28 2 1 39 Total Stock 16 46 20 44 4 2 132

Table 25 Charter Housing Association General Needs Stock

Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 5 Bed 6 Bed Total Abergavenny 26 48 41 0 0 1 116 Caldicot 6 0 26 4 0 0 36 Chepstow 83 96 132 17 0 0 328 Crucorney 0 5 6 0 0 0 11 Llanfoist Fawr 6 33 26 4 0 0 69 Magor/Undy 8 9 9 2 0 0 28 Monmouth 36 18 46 5 0 0 105 Portskewett 2 3 2 0 0 0 7 Raglan 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 Rogiet 13 19 16 2 0 0 50 Trellech United 2 6 8 1 0 0 17 Usk 6 4 4 1 0 0 15 Total 188 249 316 36 0 1 790

Table 26 Charter Housing Association (Derwen) OAP Stock

OAP Sheltered Ward Total 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 1 Bed 2 Bed Abergavenny 0 0 0 22 1 23 Caldicot 12 19 0 0 0 31 Usk 0 0 0 15 11 26 Total 12 19 0 37 12 80

72 Table 27 Other RSL Housing Stock

Muir Group Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Total Caldicot 0 17 0 17 Aelwyd Housing Association Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Total Magor/Undy 16 0 0 16 United Welsh Housing Association Ward 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed Total Llanelly Hill 41 6 8 55 Total Other RSL 57 23 8 88

Table 28 Combined RSL Disabled/Adapted Housing Stock

MHA Melin Homes Total 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 Ward Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Bed Abergavenny 5 3 1 1 10 Caerwent 2 2 Caldicot 4 6 1 2 13 Chepstow 6 2 1 9 Llanfoist Fawr 1 1 Llanwenarth Ultra 1 1 Magor/Undy 1 1 Monmouth 4 5 9 Raglan 3 1 4 Rogiet 1 1 Total 22 11 2 1 1 10 4 51

6.2 Social Housing Lettings

Past letting trends were analysed over the previous 3 years – 2015, 2016 and 2017 – and an average was taken in order to predict the likely number of lets that will come forward each year of the LHMA period (WAG, 2006b, para. 6.53). Like the housing register data used in calculating the backlog of need, this lettings data did not contain transfers.

73 Table 29 Lettings Data from 2015 – 2017

Year Number of Lets 2015 436

2016 433

2017 411 Average (mean) 426.67

6.3 Committed Supply

In addition to projected lets, the anticipated quantity of affordable housing ‘already planned to be built over the time period of the assessment’ should also be considered (WAG, 2006b, para. 6.81). Data sources used to determine this were:

 Social Housing Grant Programme  Joint Housing Land Availability Study  Local Development Plan

Planning applications granted permission subject to S106 agreements and other RSL schemes were also included, and only schemes highly likely to be delivered over the next five years were considered. The relevant data was formatted by ward, property size and property type. Table 16 shows the committed supply of affordable housing over the next five years.

Over the next five years, the total number of properties planned is as follows:

 Neutral tenure affordable housing 772

Of these 142 will be delivered through the Social Housing Grant Programme and 630 through S106 obligations.

74 Table 30 Committed Supply of Affordable Housing over the next 5 years

General Needs OAP AH Ward I Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 1 Bed 2 Bed 2 Bed Total Abergavenny 55 63 20 5 28 24 1 196 Caldicot 12 34 11 0 0 5 1 63 Chepstow 22 14 1 1 0 0 0 38 Crucorney 2 8 5 0 0 0 0 15 Devauden 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 9 Goetre Fawr 4 14 5 0 0 0 0 23 Llanbadoc 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Llanfoist Fawr 10 23 10 2 0 3 0 48 Llanover 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 5 Llantilio Crossenny 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 4 Magor/Undy 16 32 12 2 0 4 1 67 Mitchel Troy 0 4 5 0 0 0 0 9 Monmouth 34 63 27 4 0 12 0 140 Portskewett 31 36 19 0 0 2 6 94 Raglan 8 13 5 0 0 0 0 26 Rogiet 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St Arvans 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 Shirenewton 2 7 3 0 0 0 0 12 Trellech United 0 9 2 0 0 0 0 11 Usk 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 7 Total 200 341 130 14 28 50 9 772

75

Key Findings

7.1 Social Rented Housing

7.2 Low Cost Home Ownership

7.3 Intermediate Rent

76 7. Key Findings

The net shortfall of affordable housing is calculated by taking the backlog of need (Housing Register data divided by five for each year of the LHMA period) and adding existing households falling into need and newly arising need. The committed supply of affordable housing is deducted from this figure leaving the estimated annual shortfall. It would, however, be inaccurate to assume that each unit would only be occupied once over the next five years and not allowing for turnover could potentially inflate the requirement for new affordable housing. Current levels of turnover were calculated by dividing average lets over the last three years by existing social rented stock and the related ward level turnover for each property type was factored into the net shortfall for each ward to determine the annual affordable dwelling requirement.

7.1 Social Rent

The backlog of housing need from Monmouthshire’s Common Housing Register is 2,079. Dividing this figure by 5 for each year of the LHMA gives an annual figure of 415.80. Existing households falling into need due to homelessness has been calculated as an additional 133.39 households per year and newly arising need as 159.66. The newly arising need figure is calculated using the Household Projections for Monmouthshire (2014). This gives a gross need of 708.85. The combined lets and committed supply figure is 587.06. This gives a net need of 121.79 which then needs to be multiplied by the turnover rate (the average turnover rate used is 0.8402) to give the annual social rented need for Monmouthshire. This figure is 102.32.

7.2 Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO)

Low cost home ownership is a shared equity product. Shared equity helps people on low to moderate incomes who want to buy a home, but are unable to meet the full price. When you buy a shared equity home in Monmouthshire you pay 50% of the equity in the property and the Housing Association pays the rest. This is an interest free loan that is paid back when you sell the property.

The annual backlog for LCHO is 18.20 and the newly arising need is calculated as 279.39. This gives a gross need of 297.59. When the committed supply of 13.40 is deducted this gives a net annual need of 284.19.

CACI Paycheck income data is used to compare with local house prices to help estimate how many newly forming households will be in housing need for low cost home ownership. The figure arrived at using this

77 methodology is 279.39 per year, however, we have no way of knowing how many of these households will require assistance from the local authority in the form of affordable housing. In the past, not many of these households have registered a need for LCHO. Some have received assistance through the Welsh Government Help to Buy Scheme, some have received parental assistance and some have moved to cheaper areas such as Newport, Torfaen and Blaenau Gwent. This figure is higher than that of the previous assessment in 2015 (157.15). This is due to the considerable increase in house prices.

7.3 Intermediate Rent

The annual backlog for Intermediate Rent is 9.40 and the newly arising need is 75.20. This gives a gross need of 84.60. Deducting the committed supply of 2.80 units per year gives an annual need figure of 81.80.

These overall annual calculations are shown in Figure 42.

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Figure 42 Affordable Housing Annual Shortfall

Social Rent Backlog 415.80 Plus

Existing Households 133.39 LCHO IR Backlog Plus 18.20 9.40 Newly Social Rent Need Arising Need Plus Plus 159.66 102.32 O Backlog LCHO Newly IR Newly Equals Arising Need Arising Need Plus 279.39 75.20 Gross Social LCHO Need Rent Need Equals Equals 284.19 708.85 Annual Overall Minus 297.59 84.60 Plus Shortfall 468.31 Committed IR Need Supply Minus Minus 81.80 587.06 Committed Committed Equals Supply Supply Equals 13.40 2.80 Total Need 121.79 Equals Equals 468.31

Net LCHO Net IR Need Times Need 81.80 284.19 Turnover Rate 0.8402

Equals

Net Social Rent Need 102.32

79

Conclusions

80 8. Conclusions

This LHMA has utilised the Welsh Government Guidance to estimate the housing requirements within Monmouthshire from 2017 to 2023. A variety of secondary data was used including figures from Homesearch (Monmouthshire Common Housing Register), WG household projections, residential possession orders, homelessness data, house prices, incomes, dwelling stock turnover and committed supply. In depth analysis of these sources has produced a robust update of previous findings.

The annual shortfall of affordable housing in Monmouthshire from 2017 – 2023 is 468.31. The highest need across all wards is for one and two bedroom properties. The figure of 468.31, however, should not be taken as an annual target for the delivery of affordable housing as new build homes are not the total solution to the supply of affordable homes in the County. The Council is working with private landlords to increase the supply of private rented homes and also to bring empty homes back into use. The figure is simply an indication of current projected need for affordable housing within the county and sets a benchmark that the Council can work towards.

Due to the increase in the number of households predicted to be unable to buy on the open market it would be sensible to review Monmouthshire’s affordable housing delivery options during the revision of the LDP.

The affordable housing target remains the LDP target of 960 units over the plan period 2011 - 2021 and Council officers are working hard with the development industry to secure the delivery of strategic site allocations, as these will make the largest contribution to housing delivery in the longer term. The Council has also been looking at a range of mechanisms to bring forward affordable housing, including the allocation of small sites in rural areas which will deliver 60% affordable housing, rural exception sites, the use of public sector land assets and supporting direct delivery by RSL partners through the Social Housing Grant Programme.

This assessment pulls together all the available data in order to produce an accurate and detailed picture of housing need in Monmouthshire. There are many factors that impact on the supply and demand for housing and these will be reviewed on a regular basis in order to update the LHMA. This will ensure that both the Local Authority and its partners have a clear understanding of housing need in Monmouthshire and that they are able to work together to ensure the best outcomes possible for Monmouthshire residents.

81 Bibliography

Monmouthshire County Council (2014). Adopted Local Development Plan, February 2014. Monmouthshire County Council, Usk.

Welsh Assembly Government (2006). Local Housing Market Assessment Guide, March 2006. WAG, Cardiff.

Welsh Government (2012). Getting Started with your Local Housing Market Assessment, A Step-by-Step Guide, March 2012. WG, Cardiff.

Local Government Data Unit Wales (2015). Local Housing Market Assessment Online Resource Tool. [Online] Available from: http://www.dataunitwales. gov.uk/LHMA [Accessed: April and May 2015].

Welsh Government. Household Projections for Wales (2008-Based). [Online] Available from: https://statswales.wales.gov.uk/vatalogue/housing/households/ projections [Accessed: May 2015].

Welsh Government (2014). Planning Policy Wales. WG, Cardiff.

Welsh Government (2006a). Technical Advice Note 2: Planning and Affordable Housing. WAG, Cardiff.

Monmouthshire County Council (2013), Monmouthshire Common Allocations Policy, January 2013. Monmouthshire County Council, Usk.

Hometrack (2015). Housing Intelligence System. [Online] Available from: https: www.realtimeevaluations.co.uk [Accessed April, May and June 2015].

Ministry of Justice (2015). Statistics on mortgage and landlord possession actions in the county courts of Monmouthshire.

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