CON;TENTS Politics 1· 6 Commentary 7·11 FORUM Duly Noted 11·12
JANUARY 15, 1973 Vol. X, No.2 50 CENTS
. POLITICS: REPORTS' won the district by 3-2 margins so Sparling should be favored. A special election to choose a suc SPECIAL ELECTIONS In Michigan's 31st C.D., Republi cessor to William Keating, who re cans are in better shape. The leading ~igned from CongreSs to become pres Republican candidate to succeed Vice Ident of the Cincinnati Enqllirer, will President Gerald Ford in the February ,be held March 5. Despite the fact WASHINGTON, D.C. - Even 18 elections is State Sen3lte Majority that ~eating won election by 70 per before the predicted disasters of Leader RobeN Vanderlaan (R). Al cent 10 1972, the 1st C.D. race is November 1974, Republicans face the though Vanderlaan, a 43-year-old for rated ~ toss-up because the most pop possibility of the loss of four congres mer high school social studies teacher ular CLty councilman in Cincinnati's sional seats. Although the GOP has is the favorite, he will have RepW: history is the likely Democratic can been fortunate in many post-Water lican competition from State Sen. didate. gate special elections, the upcoming MHton the president pro Zaagman, Councilman Thomas A. Luken, a eleotions in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and tern of the Senate; James K. Miller, Michigan may have less salutary re fonner Cincinnati mayor who received Kent County prosecutor; and Robert the largest margin of victory in his sults. Boelens, former nonpartisan mayor of tory in winning re-election to the Grand Rapids. Boelens, widely con Intraparty bitterness may affect the Council in .1973, may be unopposed sidered a Democrat until he decided outcome of the February 5 election to for the Democratic nomination. The to run for Congress, was defeated in choose a successor to the late U.S. Rep. liberal lawyer will face t'he winner of a mayoral re-election bid in Novem John P. Saylor (R) in Pennsylvania's a five-man Republican primary on ber. The Republican primary will be 12th C.D. The GOP candidate, Harry February 12. Fox, 41, was chosen by district Re January 15. publicans only after prolonged ballot Although the district has been solid The two frontrunning Republicans ing. Fox, who was Saylor's adminis ly Republican, "Democrats there hon are City Councilman Willis D. Gradi trative assistant, defeated State Rep. estly believe they have a chance for son, Jr., who survived a Democratic sweep in the 1973 cIty elections, and Patrick Gleason, 39, for the nomi an upset because of Watergate, infla former City Councilman Ralph B. nation on the fifth ballot of a dis tion, high unemployment, the energy trict caucus. Gleason, the nephew of crisis, and the hope of many Grand Kohnen, Jr., who did not. Gradison, a fonner mayor and a stockbroker is Cambria County Republican Chairman Rapids Republicans ,i'hat Ford will considered a progressive Robert A. Gleason, had earlier been soon become President," according to Republi~an; considered the leading Republican can the Detroit Free Press's Saul Fried Kohnen, a lawyer, is considered a con servative. The two men will also be didate. man. The Democratic candidate will be Richard Vanderlaan, a 51-year-old challenged by .three other candidates: Fox will oppose State Rep. John William Flax, an arch-conservative P. Murtha, 41. By contrast with Fox, attorney who ran against Ford on two previous occasions. gadfly who is always running for some car-wash owner Murtha represents a thing in the Cincinnati area; Thomas 19 the contest to succeed Rep. united organization. Watergate is not u.s. Pottenger, a lawyer and former state expected to playa large part in the James Harvey, who has been confirm representat:ive whose political orienta ed for a federal judgeship, .,Harvey's election's outcome although Fox is tion was described by one observer as administrative assistant, Jim Sparling, stressing "honesty in government" as being a "blithe spirit" ; and Henry is considered the frontrunner. The a campaign theme. As in the other Rollman, an advertising executive who other available Republicans are State elections, both Republican and Dem previously has been in the background Sen. Bob Richardson, a Saginaw law ocratic national organizations are ex of Republican politics. pected to place special emphasis on yer; Michael Gilman of Bay City; and victory in oder to demonstrate a na State Rep. Bert Brennan, a Saginaw Finally, the death on January 1 of tional trend. The big issue in the race pharma.cist. AIVhough the dates of the u.S. Rep. Charles M. Teague (R Calif.) opens up a fifth vacancy. No is likely to be the cutbacks in Johns primary and election in tlle "Michigan town production being made by Beth Thumb" district have yet to be set, plans on filling the 13th C.D. con lehem Steel Corp. and the candidates' the Democratic candidate is likely to gressman's seat have been announced, proposals to a,ttract new industry to be State Rep. J. Robert Traxler, a but redistricting may threaten the safe ty of the seat for the GOP. • the area. Bay City lawyer. Harvey consistently lulu in 1972. Anderson may have to torate. Former U.S. Rep. Sherman P. HAWAII choose between the lure of the gov Lloyd was third in both comparisons. ernorship and the more realistic lure Romney is expected to stay out of the of the mayoralty, should it be vacated race, but the possibility of a bitter HONOLULU - Although Repub by Fasi. Senate primary between Gam and licans have not a palm tree's chance Although Matsunaga is unlikely to Lloyd, who was defeated by Owens in Alaska of unseating Sen. Daniel face any real challenge this year, for in 1972, still exists. A fourth Senate K. Inouye (D) in 1974, there is an mer State Rep. Diana Hansen (R), 27, possibility, former Utah State GOP outside chance that the GOP could will again contest U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink Chairman Richards has decided against win Hawaii's governorship - if they (D), against whom she received 43 entering the race. Romney, more con can find a candidate. peocent of the vote in 1972. servative than either Gam or Lloyd, Inouye, one of the .recent stars of Commenting on the GOP's plight at one point had deCided not to run the "WaJtergate" television serial, is in Hawaii, on~ seasoned Republican but is now wavering again. Gam was considered unbeaJtable and will prob said, "We just don't-have enough ·of recently elected first vice president of ably lack even token Republican op a 'bench' and Watergate lw reduced the National League of Cities, and ~tion. In the wake of Gov. John the ranks of political 'gamblers:" • Romney serves as a visiting professor Bums' operation for cancer in Oc at Utah State University in Logan. tober, there will be a vacancy in the Ironically, the only announced Re governomhip next year. Gov. Burns publican candidate is Byron Rampton, may retire even before the end of his UTAH a former state senator and brother of tenn, opening up ·the possibility of the state's Democratic governor. Ramp fratricidal warfare between Democrat SALT LAKE CITY - Attempts by ton, a Bountiful insurance man who ic factions. the Uta!h Democratic establishment to unsuccessfully sought the 1970 Senate Such a retirement would aid Lt. annoint Sait Lake lawyer Donald B. nomination against former U.S. Rep. Gov. ~rge Ariyoshi, now tlhe act Holbrook with the Democratic sena Laurence Burton in 1970, is expected ing governor of the state, but only if torial nomination appear to have been to go nowhere with his campaign. it came after this year's legislative ses unsuccessful The Democratic disorder may pres sion. Otherwise, rambunctious legis Holbrook, wIho resigned as chair ent double opportunities for Republi lative Democrats might see an open man of the Utah Board of Higher Ed cans. If the Democratic establishment ing to embarrass Ariyoshi and pro ucation when he announced his can takes a walk rather than support mote the candidacy of Senate President didacy for the Senate in early Decem 'Owens' Senate bid, the Republicans David McClung as the logical heir to ber, has the support of ,state Dem0- may retain the Senate seat. If both Bums' mantle. Ironically, Burns' ill crat chieftains, including Gov _ Calvin Owens and McKay seek the Senate, ness may damage his arch-enemy, Rampton. Republicans may have a chance to re Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, who has The oddB-on favorite for the Dem capture the state's two House seats been deprived of his prime campaign ocratic nomination, however, is fresh - if bitter primaries between conser issue, Burns' Democratic machine. Fasi man U.S. Rep. Wayne Owens. Al vatives and far right "crazies" do not is further threatened oy the decision though more liberal perhaps than most develop, as they have in the past. of Big Island Judge Nelson K. Doi Utahns, the former Kennedy aide is Right now, the GOP's indifference, to resign to seek the nomination for a devout Mormon, a key attribute for lassitude, and lack of organization may lieutenant. governor - as an ally of an aspiring politician in the state. U.S. be the party's biggest handicap. - a fourth gubernatorial candidate, Tom Rep. K. Gunn McKay is another Sen Gill Gill, a former lieutenant gov ate aspirant. but he lacks the firm ernor, sought and lost the Democratic Salt Lake base of Owens. The possibil MAINE gubernatorial nomination in 1970. Gill. ity of a Democratic fight between the still has a loser image, however, and popular Owens and the power~backed reportedly is trailing Ariyoshi and Holbrook gladdens the hearts of Re AUGUSTA - Maine Republicans Fasi in statewide polls. McClung is publicans in the state, who would like have one of the best opportunities in at the bottom of the scale. to retain tlhe seat of Sen. Wallace F. the nation in 1974 to wrest a state State Sen. Fred Rohlfing (R), who Bennett (R). house from Democratic control. The ran a surprisingly tough race against The Utah seat is one of several Re number of Republican aspirants for U.S. Rep. Spark M. Matsunaga, will publican Senate seats placed in the the gubernatorial nomination attest to seek re-election this year rather than "doubtful" or "probable turnover" cat the odds of capturing the post of re run for Congress or the governorship. egory by nationa,1 Republican officials. firing Gov. Kenneth Curtis. Sen. Hiram 1. Fong (R) reportedly After the withdrawal of former Mich Although U.S. Rep. Bill Cohen (R- has rejected efforts to get him to run igan Gov. George Romney from con 2nd CD.) has apparently decided to for governor; Rohlfing is considered sideration, ·the leading GOP candidate forego the race, most other Maine Re a likely candidate for the Senate if is Salt Lake Mayor Jake Gam. A No publicans have not. Six candidates Fong retires in 1976. vember 25th poll by the Salt Lake City have already been active on the cam Also discussed as a possible guber Tribune showed Gam trailing Attor paign trail. . natorial candidate is State Sen. D. G. ney General Vernon Romney in pop The only announced candidate for "Andy" Anderson, who was narrowly ularity among Republicans but lead the nomination is State Sen. Harrison defeated by Fasi for mayor of Hono- ing Romney among the whole elec- 1. Richardson, a former majority lead-
-2- ,.-
er of the Maine House of Representa U.S. Rep. Peter Kyros (D-1st CD.). might yet decide to run for governor tives. The Cumberland environmental The former chairman of the Republi as well. Considering the makeup. of ist has the endorsement of two of can Finance Committee in Massachu the Democratic and Republican gu the most influential Republicans in the setts has boosted his party popularity bernatorial fields, it may be hard for State Senate, Senate President Ken through voter registration efforts and both parties to reunite after the an neth P. Macleod and Appropriations party access to his highly-sophisticated ticipated bi·tter primaries. Committee Chairman Joseph Sewall. computer system. Monks has also been Cohen has indicated he will review Richardson concedes that it might cost a generous contributor to the cam his decision to seek re-election in well over $100,000 to win the Re paigns of other GOP hopefuls. February, but he is expected to stay publican nomination but is confident The other three unannounced can in Washington. Although State Sen. that he can raise the money. didates are from the State Senate. Kelley had been expected to contest Former Attorney General James S. State Sen. Bennett Katz, an Augusta Cohen, he has now backed off - as Erwin, twice defeated as the GOP's businessrrian, is expected to announce have other aspiring Democrats. candidate for governor, is expected to shortly. like Richardson and Monks, run once again this year. The con Several Republican contenders are Katz is regarded as a moderate-pro servative Erwin, who was chairman of considering a race against U.S. Rep. gressive Republican. While Katz is Maine CREP, has increased his speak Kyros. House Speaker Richard Hewes known as a strong supporter of high ing engagements in recent months; his after a rough term as speaker is the er education, Sen. Wakine Tanous is chief support is from Republican Par leading contender. Other possible as a strong suppor:ter of 11l.bor in his post ty workers who have worked for him pirants include State Rep. David Eme as chairman of the Senate Judiciary in the past. Erwin's main problem may ry, a conservative from Rockland; Wil and Labor Committee. Tanous and be difficulties in fund raising as a re liam-lewis, 58-year-old former admin Katz l?oth lack a strong base of sup sult of his previous electoral defeats. istrative assistant to former Sen. Smith, porr, however. Perhaps an even darker The Republicans most critical of Erwin and Wayne Johnson, who recently re horse for the nomination is Sen. Tarpy are generally legislators who became signed as field director of the Depart Schulten, a wealthy, gregarious, and infuriated by some of his actions as ment of Housing and Urban Develop elderly banker-farmer. attorney general. Polls, however, show ment after HUD initi,ated disciplinary Erwin leading among GOP voters with Speculation on Democratic candi proceedings against Johnson in a dis industrialist Robert A. G. Monks a dates centers on State Sen. Peter Kel pute over subsidizing housing funds. very close second. Richards9Jl' is third. ly, the sponsor of an unsuccessful Johnson, a frequent critic of HUD Monks, a Portland lawyer-business referendum to create a public power policy, was charged with filing "feasi man waged an expensive and unsuc authority; Stll.te Sen. Joseph E. Bren bility" letters for housing projects af cessful primary campaign in 1972 nan, the young minority leader of the ter a moratorium on new projects was against Sen. Margaret Chase Smith. State Senate; George Mitchell, Demo imposed January 5, 1973. The 31-year Monks' critics contend that a multi cratic national committeeman and big old Johnson's biggest supporter is millionaire, carpetbagger image (he's Muskie backer; John Martin, Demo maverick former U.S. Rep. Stanley R. from Massachusetts) will undermine cratic House minority leader; and Sev Tupper (R), who incurred the wrath his campaign efforts. Monks, however, erin Beliveau, Augusta attorney and of party regulars when he refused to apparently decided that he had a bet former state Democratic official. endorse Sen. Barry Goldwater's presi ter chance at governor than at defeating There is also speculation that Kyros dential bid in 1964 .•
THE RIPON SOCIETY INC Is a Republican research and I • peliey organization whose members are young business, academic and JlrOfessional men and women. It has national headquarters in District of Colwnbia. chapters in fifteen cities. National Associate members throughout the fifty states, and several affiliated groups of subchapter status. The Society Is supported by chapter dues. indfvidual contribu tions ana: revenues from its publiCations and contract wort. THE RIPON FORUM Is published semi-monthly by the Ripon SOciety. Inc.. 509 C Street N.E., Washington, D.C. 20002. Second class postage rates paid at Wash ington, D.C. and other mailing houses. Contents are copyrighted © 1974 by the Ripon Society, Inc. Correspondence addressed to the Rdftor is welcomed. In publishing this magazine the Ripon Society seeks to provide a forum for fresh ideas. well-researched proposcils and for a spirit of criticism, innovation. and independent thinldng within the Re publican Party. Articles do not necessarily represent the opinion of the NationCzl Governing Board or the Edftorial Board of the Ripon Society, unless they are ezplicitly 80 labelled. SUBSCRIPTION RATES are '10 a year $5 for studenls. service men, and for Peace Corps. Vista and other volunteers. Overseas air mail. $3 extra. Advertising rates on request. Please allow five weeks for address changes. Editor. Dick Behn Editorial Boarda Robert D. Behn' Chairman Tanya Melich Robert H. Donaldson Robert G. Stewart James Manahan Ralph Thayer Contributing Editors. CliHord Brown.. Glenn Gerstell. WIlUam A. Koelsch. Daniel J. Swillinger. Josiah lAS Auspitz. Richard. W. Ra!m. John A. RehfUSB. and Thomas A. Sargent AssIst_t Editon M. Victoria Golden Art: Leslie Morrill and Annie Greene AdvertialDgo Maaaven Deborah Bowen Staff AuiStaDb Nelson Millet
-3- Topeka and State Treasurer Tom Van he. is defin:ng Lis attitude towards Sickle, a former national chairman of the Watergate administration. Rocke KANSAS the Young Republicans. • feller cannot quite find th~· words. The closest he came was in a speech to TOPEKA - There may be some southern Republicans, when he defined hope for Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kans.) in Watergate as a 'tragedy' for 'individ his re-election campaign this year if ROCKEFELLER uals' and, later to the press, included an investigation of contract awards for Mr. Nixon among the individuals." the Kansas University Medical Cen BOSTON - Press comments on the Columnists Rowland Evans and Rob ter reflects adversely on Gov. Robert resignation of New York Gov. Nelson ert Novak obviously think that Rocke Docking. A. Rockefeller were varied, but notably feller is finally on the right track. Democratic Attorney -General Vern cautious among conservative publica "Rockefeller's current tactics have out Miller originally announced that a tions suspicious of Rockey's new con raged the New YorJc liberal establish "vigorous" -investigation of the award servatism. ment(bringing down jenniads on him ing of architeGture contracts for the Some political observers concluded from columnist James Wechsler of the and the medical center had revealed "no wrong that Rockefeller may have finally New York Post New York doing." But when a Republican
• Arizona Corporatiatl. Commis~ioner Russell Wil. liams has resigned in order to seek this year's Repub POLITICS: PEOPLE lican gubernatorial nomination. GOP Gov. Jack Wil· liams, who will not seek re-election, has appointed State Treasurer Ernest Garfield (R) to succeed Russell • Strike-out Department: New York City Mayor Williams. Opposition for the Republican nomination Abraham D. Beame (D) incurred two strikes even be may come from State Senate President Bill Jacquin fore he took over Gracie Mansion from John Lindsay. of Tucson and House Majority Leader Burton Barr of David N. Dinkins, Beame's nominee for deputy mayor, Phoenix. The Democratic nominee is likely to be for withdrew his name because he had not paid federal, mer Ambassador Raul Castro, whom Jack Williams state, or city taxes for four years. Seymour Terry, narrowly defeated in 1970. Beame's choice for director of special programs or chief "trouble shooter," withdrew his name after the New • A Massachusetts poll taken by Market Opinion York TJDles revealed Terry sent insurance clients a Research shows Gov. Francis Sargent (R) defeating letter explaining, "My new circumstances will no doubt three possible Democratic opponents: Boston Mayor enable you to get even greater benefits from your as Kevin H. White, 42-26 per<;ent; former Brookline State sociation with Terry Brokerage Co. than you have here Rep. Michael Dukakis, 44-24 percent; and Attorney tofore.'" General Robert H. Quinn, 49-19 percent. Sargent's pop ularity in his party continues to decline, however. • Former Alabama Gov. Albert Brewer (D), who Sargent rewarded two Democratic members of the Gov was defeated by Gov. George C. Wallace (D) for re ernor's Executive Council with patronage posts and election in 1970, is considering a race for his old of appointed two young Republicans to replace them. fice of lieutenant governor. Brewer's Montgomery law Such action might normally have pleased Republicans partnership has broken up, reportedly because of his who are distressed with the governor's poor patronage political plans. Ironically, some support for Brewer to record, but instead Sargent managed to infuriate the oppose incumbent Lt. Gov. Jere Beasley (D) has come GOP. Instead of appointing the Republican opponent from supporters of Wallace. to the Democrat he was replacing, Sargent allowed the nomination to be vetoed by Albert ''Toots'' Manzi, a • U.S. Rep. Barber B. Conable's post as chairman key Sargent fundraiser. The disgruntled party stalwart, of the House Republican Research Committee was Quintin J. Cristy, who had been nixed for the post, re taken by U.S. Rep. Louis Frey, Jr., (R-Fla.) when signed from the Republican Club of Massachusetts, Conable moved up to head the House Republican Pol charging that "until such time as the Republican Party icy Committee. However, Frey may yet run for the rids itself of our so-:,called Republican governor and his seat now held by Sen. Edward Gurney (R) if the in Worcester County ~oordinator, Mr. Toots Manzi, I cumbent's fundraising troubles drive him from office. shall have no interest whatsoever in supporting the If Gurney resigns or retires, there will almost certainly party or any of its candidates." be a bitter primary between Frey and Republican Na tional Committeewoman Paula Hawkins. • Unlove Story: Mrs. Barbara Mandel has de cided to turn over the governor's mansion to her hus • Bill Vaughan, assistant press secretary to Ten band, Gov. Marvin Mandel (D). The governor moved nessee Gov. Winfield Dunn (R), has resigned to work out last July, claiming the male privilege of falling in for GOP gubernatorial candidate Dortch Oldham. love with another woman. Mrs. Mandel, not impressed Vaughan's resignation is not interpreted, however, as with the legality of such privilege, stayed on. The gov indicative of Dunn's support for fellow moderate Old ernor persisted, a settlement was reached, and Mrs. ham in th~ upcoming gubernatorial primary. Both Old Mandel gave up the mansion, minus a little furniture. ham and LaMar Alexander, another Nashville moder The mansion controversy is not expected to influence ate, have been close to Dunn. A high-ranking member the governor's re-election chances. of Sen. Howard Baker, Jr.'s staff has resigned to work on Alexander's gubernatorial campaign. Gary L. Sisco, • As Illinois goes, so goes the nation - according 28, was an executive assistant to Baker before resign to Richard NIXOn. And he is right. In the last 14 presi ing to work for Alexander, also a former Baker aide. dential elections, Illinois voters have not only picked Alexander will also be advised by conservative political the winner every time, but state vote totals have de strategist Clifton White, while the campaign of Dr. Nat viated from the national figures by an average of less Winston will be run by an old White co-worker from than 3 percent. If Illinois is, in fact, a reliable baro the 1970 campaign of Sen. James Buckley (Cons.-N.Y.), meter, Republicans across the country ought to be David Jones. Bill Goodwin, a former aide to Sen. Bill scared stiff. Results of a statewide poll taken by one Brock, also works for Winston. Back in New Jersey, Re time Senate hopeful U.S. Rep. John Anderson (R-Ill.) publicans are still talking about the high-priced ad paint a bleak picture for Illinois Republicans. Ander vice White provided for the gubernatorial campaign son's late-October poll shows that a mere 22 percent of U.S. Rep. Charles Sandman (R). White was more of the state's voters call themselves Republicans. In successful in the Venezuelan presidential campaign than mid-1970, the figure stood at a respectable 40 percent. with "peripheral ethnics" in New Jersey. Currently, in the vital 18-24 year-old category, a flim sy 8 percent regard themselves as Republicans. That's • Maryland Sen. Charles McC. Mathias, who is not all. A thumping 46 percent of the voters answered one of four progressive Republican senators considered "Watergate" when asked what they regarded as the safe in the 1974 congressional elections, has announced nation's most important problem. Is Watergate "one a voluntary $100 limit on individual campaign con more example of GOP arrogance and deceit?" Repub tributions. Delaware U.S. Rep. Pierre S. duPont has licans across the nation may not think so, but 45 per imposed a similar limit. cent of the electorate in Illinois do. -6 mixed, the fact is that. they point demonstrated a disturbing phenome unmistakably to serious problems non: Republican voters who were too COMMENTARY: which the Republican Party must disillusioned to show up and vote. A face in 1974 and the congressional massive anti-Watergate reaction in 1974 POLITICS elections of next year. In the days is not necessary to doom the GOP. The just prior to the elections this apathy of Republicans can be just as month, the Gallup Poll carried out lethal. one of its test elections, and the re Incumbency is interpreted as a mix sults of this survey indicated that ed blessing in 1974. It is argued that if all the members of the House incumbents of both parties could be were coming up for election at this endangered by Watergate-inspired cyn time, Republican candidates would icism. Other politicians argue that the poll the lowest percentage of the advantages of incumbency -' access total vote in the entire history of to media, newsmaking-potential, fund our organization, which goes back raising capabilities - will stilI be felt. to 1935. A survey by the Common Cause has Several factors will be 3iI: work in shown, for example, that in 1972 1974. First, the economic picture looks House incumbents outspent challengers bleak. According to Foley's Law, first about 5-3, while Senate incumbents explained by economist Duncan Foley ,more than doubled the spending of froID in the April, 1970 issue of the their adversaries. The simple arithme FORUM, in each election year since tic of the 1974 situation works against 1950 (with the exception of 1964), Republicans, however. There are 15 "Each one percent increase in the un Republican and 19 Democratic seats employment rate has reduced the Re up in the Senate. The GOP holds on publican House membership by about ly 190 of the House's 435 seats, and Disneyland 15 seats." Many Republican observers only 12 of the 35 governorships at fear that an economic recession will stake in 1974. be the biggest handicap of Republi Fourth is the problem of party cans in 1974. organization. Reports on the GOP Second, Watergate will be a factor. throughout the country show the par byDickBebn The largest single block of voters in ty ranks demoralizing and fund raising the country are independents. The difficul,t. ranks of independents, according to Finally, there is the problem of can . It is time for Repub.lJican Party Gallup Polls, have been strengthened didate recruitment. leaders to withdraw from the Southern by defections from the Republican Republican honchos may belittle California Disneyland which animates ranks. The local elections of 1973 the effects of Watergate in making their wishful .thinking on Watergate. name Republican candidates like Mis Vice President Gerald Ford told souri Attorney General Jack Danforth and Illinois Attorney General William U.s. News & World Report in a copy righted interview in December, "My Scott and U.S. Rep. John Anderson back away from Senate races this theory is that if the world is at peace, which Itbink it will be, and if our year. But if U.S. Rep. Robert Steele economy is healthy, which I think it and Indianapolis Mayor Richard Lugar will be, then I don't thi·nk Watergate challenge respective Democratic incum will have much impact (on next year's bents in Connecticut and Indiana this congressional elections)." year, they will be notable exceptions to the Republican Party's inability to Emerging from a ·high-level Repub attract viable opponents to Democratic lican strategy session at the White inrumbents. Walter. Hickel may yet House December 11, in which Water challenge Sen. Mike Gravel in Alaska, gate was "never mentioned," Repub but Gravel's vulnerability is peculiar lican National Chairman George Bush to his inattention to his constituents. said Watergate "isn't going to be the Sen. W'arren Magnuson (D-Wash.), determining factor in the 1974 elec for example, could 'be vulnerable, de tions." spite his reputation as a Washington Speaking before the Republican institution, albeit an aging one. But Governors' Conference in Memphis in Republicans are having a difficult November, Dr. George Gallup dis time finding anyone to give Mag agreed: nuson a serious race. Sen. Alan Cran Now, while many have dis ston (D-Calif.) is unlikely to have missed the elections of this month any trouble defeating any of the throughout the nation as being Gerald Ford three likely candidates. No formidable -7- Republican candidates threaten Sen. been bandied about in the news media. Frank Church (D-Idaho), James Al Republican strategists deny that any COMMEi,' :TARY: len (D-Ala.), Ernest Hollings (0- such disaster is likely; an off-year loss S.c.), Thomas Eagleton (D-Mo.), Ad of one to three dozen seats is possi lai Stevenson III (D-Ill.), Gaylord ble, they concede. Searching for Re WORLD Nelson (D-Wisc.), James Fulbright publican opportunities for gain is an D-Ark.), Daniel Inouye (D-Ha.), and unrewarding pastime. Occasionally, in Russell B. Long (D-La.). Even Sen. states like Connecticut, New York, George McGovern appears to be work Iowa, and South Carolina, an up ing another six~year magic tdck in wardly-mobile Democratic congress South Dakota. Democratic opportuni man may provide a Republican open ties for Republican gains are limited ing. But$ese instances are rare. to rare retirements such as those of Weather. forecasts· of that Republican Alan Bible in Nevada, Harold Hughes tidal wave in the South are no more in Iowa, and Sam Ervin in North Car accurate than when they were first olina. But in all three states, popular prognosticated in the 1960's. The Democrats appear ready to give Re GOP is still not in position to buy publicans stiff races. out the southern Democratic Party. Relations If possible, ,the picture for Republi Perhaps illustrative of the problems can~held Senate seats is even bleaker. faced by Republicans is the decision of Republican incumbents Peter Domi State Rep. John Clark in I~wa not to nick, Milton Young, and Edward seek U.S. Rep. John C. Edward Mez Gurney will have stiff races. If George vinsky's seat. The 26-year-old state Aiken or Marlow Cook retire, their legislator had announced his candi With seats could fall .to the Democrats. Re dacy in the spring but witbdrew be tiring Sen. Norris Cotton's seat in New cause he couldn't raise enough money Hampshire should be saved for the for the race without selling his polit GOP, but there is no certainty that icalsoul to big contributors. If the Utah Sen. Wallace F. Bennett's seat GOP cannot induce attractive candi~ will similarly be retained. The seat of dates Like JOIhn dark to oppose vul South the naJI:ion's new Attorney General, nerable Democrats like Edward Mez William Saxbe, is now Democratic and vinsky, then the GOP is in trouble. likely to remain so. The rare Repub The party's cause is no brighter in lican "safe" seats belong to four pro in the gubernatorial races. New York gressives: Jacob Javits in New York, and California could easily pass out of Korea Charles McC. Mathias in Maryland, Republican control. Ohio, Texas, and Richard Schweiker in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania are long-S'hots for wrest and Robert Packwood of Oregon - ing control from Democratic incum and one conservative, Barry Goldwater bents. One has .to remember only as (unles~ Goldwater too retires). far back as 1969 to remember when In the House, meanwhile, possible New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Cal by .Martin Sours Republican losses of 60-75 seats have ifornia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio were all controlled by Republican governors. Now Republican governors in the Midwest are the exception rather than The American foreign policy to the rule, and it's symptomatic of the ward the Republic of Korea seemed party's status that its best shot at re clear-cut and definitive during the capturing a governor's mansion IS III 1950's and 1960'S. The Cold War was Maine, once as Republican as it is on, and anti-communist allies around rocky. the globe were aided and supported No Republican can be blind to the as a matter of both pr.inciple and prac political portents of 1974. In a good ticality. In the present state of world year, 1974 would be bad for Repub affairs, involving new and complicated licans. But 1974 is a bad year, and influences and the currents of de it wiU be a disaster for the GOP. The tente, the course of the interests of Republican Party has a smelly skeleton the United States toward "the land in its White House closet. The party of morning calm" has become cloud didn't put the skeleton there. The par ed by the strong forces which have ty isn't responsible for the stink. But, emerged on the economic and polit like it or not, the party has been con ical scene. Despite the important, at victed of guilt by association. • tention-getting developments in the George Bush Dick Behn is editor of the FORUM. relationships between the United States -8- • and other Asian great powers, the ure is significant in that South Korea tween China and Japan has long stim combination of Korea's geographic is trying to promote exports to offset ulated its role as cultural and relig position and rapidly growing and ma declines in governnrent-to-government ious bridge between the Oriental civil turing economy warrants continued at aid; yet the percentage of South Ko izations. Today, this historic role could tention by American policy-makers. rean exports from foreign direct in be expanded to include commercial and· The . twenty years of peace have vestments has gone from 1.8 percent manufacturing centers as well. Sudh brought prosperity to the southern half during the 1962-68 period to 19.2 per a role would require additional sup of the Korean peninsula. Today South cent in 1972. port for broad exchanges of Korean Korea is a nation of 32 million pe0- and American business, academic, and ple, of whom over 6 million live in governmental leaders, thus creating the the capital city of Seoul. A once des positive side effect of opening up the olated, war-torn country and agrarian Korean society as a whole. people have steadily grown toward an Secondly, greater institutional inter urban and industrialized society, as action between organizations in· Korea represented by the expansion of the and -9- the reality hidden under the noble as a deterrent at all. In the 33 na phrases with which it was masked. tions that have abolished it, the num COMMENTABY: Instead of thinking of the slaugh ber of murders has not increased. The tered children, he could think of truth is that the great majority of NATION nothing but that quivering body criminals simply do not consider pen that had just been dropped onto alties before they act, either because a hoard to have its hea:d cut off.... their act is spontaneous and uopre When the extreme penalty simply medidated, or because they do not causes vomiting on the part of the plan to be caught. respectable ~en it is supposed to As noted by Harvard Professor protect, how can anyone maintain James Q. Wilson, " ... the point is that it is likely, as it ought to be, not whether capital punishment pre to bring more peace and order in vents future crimes, but whether it is to the community? Rather, it is ob a proper and fitting penalty for crimes VeDleanee viously no less repulsive than the that have occurred. That is probably crime. and this new murder, far as it should be, for such a question from making amends for the harm forces. us to weigh the value we at done to the social body,. adds a neW tach to human life against the horror blot to the first one.1 in which we hold a heinous crime."2 And It is not uncommon, even today, Albert Otmus awakened the con to hear expressed the eye-for-an-eye science of France with his "Re:B.ections theory of justice. The rapist should on the Guillotine" in 1957. Arthur be castrated, we are told; the thief Koestler did the same in England the should have his hand cut off; and the VOIDit year before with his Reflections on murderer should be murdered. Yet, Hangmg. In America we are still except for the death penalty, it has awaiting publication of "Re:B.ections on long been agreed that retribution of the Electric Chair and the Gas Cham this sort is not consistent with the ber." level of civilization we like to think by James H .Manahan The Supreme Court's decision in we have attained. Furman 11. Georgia did not serve 'as It is undoubtedly true, as Justice the cata:lyst for which many reformers Marshall pointed out in Furman, that were waiting. The 5-4 decision freed "there is a demand for vengeance on SboItly before the war of 1914, some 600 prisoners from death row, the part of many persons in a com an assassin whose crime was partic but failed to do so with any clearly munity against one who is convicted ularly repulsive (he had slaughter understood or morally persuasive rea of a particularly offensive act. At runes ed a. family of farmers, including soning. Indeed, only Justice William a cry is heard that morality requires the children) was condemned to Brennan and Thurgood Marshall con vengeance to evidence society's ab death in Algiers. He was a farm cluded tha.t the Eighth Amendment horrence of the act. BUll: the Eighth worker who had killed in a sort prohibits "capital punishment for all Amendment is our insulation from our of blOod.¢hirsty frenzy but had ag crimes and under all oircumsta.nces, as baser selves. The cruel and unusual gravated his case by robbing his Chief Justice Warren Burger pointed language limits the avenues through victims. The affair created a great out in dissent. which vengeance can be channeled. stir. It was generally thought that Since the Court decision, 23 states Were this not so, the language would decapitation was too mild a punish have reinstated the death penalty. be empty and a return to the rack and mem: for such a monster. This was President Nixon urged a new federal other tortures would be possible in a the opinion, I have been told, of law imposing the death penalty for given case. "S my fa.ther,. who was especially war-related treason, sabotage, and es If capital punishment is to be abol aroused by the murder of the chil pionage and where death results from ished, then, it must come to be re dren. One of the few things I know such serious federal offenses as sky garded as "cruel and unusual"; that about him, in any case, is that he j-acking, kidnapping, and assaulting a is, as being repugnant to our sense wa:nted to witness the execution, federal officer. The President asserted of decency in the same sense as are for the fust time in his life. He got his conviction ,tha.t "the death penal the rack and the screw, castration, up in the dark to go to the place ty can be an effective deterrent." Max ot burning at the stake. The Eighth of execution at the other end of Lerner, usually a liberal spokesman, Amendment, as Chief Justice Earl town amid a great crowd of pe0- recently suggested capital punishment Warren wrote, "must draw its mean ple. What he saw that moming for mass murderers: "If anything ing from the evolving standards of he never told anyone. My mother were to break through into their con decency that mark the progress of a relates merely tha.t he came rush sciousness, it might just possibly be maturing society."4 Only when Amer ing home, his face distorted, re the knowledge that their own lives icans realize how indecent, how bar fused to talk, lay down for a mO are on the line." baric capital punishment is, will they ment on the bed, and suddenly be And yet there is virtually no evi insist on its abolition. gan to vOlpit. He had discovered dence that the death penalty serves Consider the following description -10- of an execution, wri·tten by a news everyone to look at them - the r paper reporter from accounts given her over-delicate citizens and all those by two prison officers: who had any responsibility in bring The final switch is thrown and the ing the executioner into being. electricity strikes the body, which Otherwise, society admits that it stiffens violently. kills without knowing what it is The clenched fists whiten and turn saying or doing. Or else it admits slowly upward as the current builds that such revolting ceremonies can up to a maximum of 2,500 volts. only excite crime or completely up This is a reBex action. A blister set opinion. "7 begins to rise on the lower left The Oklahoma Senate, in reviving leg beneath the electrode. capital punishment last year, almost The noise is loud. The dying resembling the motions made by a approved the televising of executions. man fights the straps with amazing goldfish in his bowl. The head Perhaps if this were done, or at least strength. Usually, some smoke rises strains backward and then slowly if the news media were permitted to up from the chair.1! sinks down to the chest. And, in witness electrocutions and publish de Execution by gas is no better, ac Monge's case, the arms, although tailed descriptions, the American pub cording to a reporter who watched tightly bound to the chair, strain lic, like Camus' father, would dis Luis Jose Monge choke to death in ed lilt the straps, and the hands cover 'the reality hidden under the Colorado: clawed torturously, as if the prison noble phrases of capital punishment The public likes to believe that un er were struggling for air.8 -' and would vomit. • consciousness is almost instantane Those who support the death penal. lames H. Mallaha/I, a Minnesota at ous, but the facts belie this. Ac ty because of its supposed deterrent tomey, is a member of the FORUM cording to the official execution effect should, to be consistent, insist log, unconsciousness came more upon publicizing the horror of the Editorial Board. FOOTNOTES than five minutes after the cyanide spectacle. As Camus pointed out: I. Albert Camus. "Reflections on the Guil lotine" in Resistance, Rebellion cm'd Death, splashed down into the sulfuric acid. Indeed, one must kiIl publicly or translated by Justin O'Brien (New York. Allred A, Knopf. 1961). pages 175-176. And to those of us who watched, confess that one does not feel 2. New York Times Magazme (October 28. 1973). this 5-minute interlude seemed in authorized to kiIl. If society justi 3. Furmcm v. Georgia, 92 S.Ct, 2726 at 2780. terminable. Even after unconscious fies the death penalty by the neces 4. Trop v. Dulles. 356 U.S. 86 (1958) 5. Danielle Harris in the Montgomery Ad ness is declared officially, the pris sity of the example, it must justi vertiser. October 23. 1961. quoted by Sol Rubin in Capital PUDishment, edited by oner's body continues to fight for fy itself by making the publicity James A. McCafferty (Chicago. Aldine Atherton. 1972). page 254. life. He coughs and groans. The necessary. It must show the execu 6. Cary P. Stiff II in Time. June 23. 1967. quoted by Sol Rubin. op. cit.. page 256, lips make little pouting motions tioner's hands each time and force 7, Albert Camus. op cit, pages 187-188. Danskin of Monmouth County to be the new state chair DULY NOTED: POLITICS man at a meeting Jan. 11. It is a measure of how little influence Rep. Charles W. Sandman retains after his shat • "Southern Republicans Cool to party Reform," by tering defeat for governor last month that he is pushing Robert Walters. Washlngton Star-News, December 10, Ann Flynn, also of Monmouth, for the spot. Mrs. Flynn, 1973. "Southern Republicans, who led the succes:'ful fight now (state) vice-chairman. is loyal and hardworking but against party reform at the 1972 GOP convention, have not regarded as a leader. Mrs. Flynn would have to op become increasingly antagonistic toward the committee pose her own county chairman, a task she considered established to recommend similar reforms to the 1976 after Sandman whispered in her ear. But she thought convention. Participants in the Southern Republican Con better of it after talking to Danskin." Sandman's previ ference held here over the weekend, were polite but cool ous chainnan, John J. Spoltore, was stricken with a heart toward'RE'p. William A. Steiger, R-Wisc., chairman of attack and died the day before a December State GOP the party committee authorized to study improvements Committee meeting which would probably have requested in the GOP structure and convention process. But when his resignation. Danskin, who would have become chair Steiger wasn't looking, Robert J. Shaw, chairman of man if former Gov. William Cahill had won the 1973 Georgia's Republican party and official host for the con Republican gubernatorial primary. is opposed for the par ference made an effort to manipulate the responses to ty chairmanship by Essex County GOP Chairman Fred a questionnaire designed to elicit individuals' opinions Remington, also a moderate. about possible reforms." Only under great pressure did Mississippi GOP Chairman Clarke Reed allow any or • "Another Buckley Cbeers Conservatives," by Wil ganized discussion of party reform efforts at the con liam A. Rusher. Baltimore Soo, December 26, 1973. Sen. vention. The hostility to reform was not limited to Reed J·ames L, Buckley (Cons.-N.Y.) is going to assume a more and Shaw. Writes Walters, "At the panel discussion (on active role as a conservative spokesman, and, according party reform), Steiger noted that although the question to William Rusher, publisher of the Buckley family's Na naires had been distributed to the participants, 'We real tional Review, that is good. "Spiro T. Agnew is gone. ly haven't had a helluva lot back' - a situation Shaw Sen. Barry M. Goldwater (R-Ariz.) is 64 and contem tried to remedy in an extraordinary manner while lead plating retirement. Gov. Ronald Reagan of California ing a panel discussion on unrelated subjects several hours alone stands forth as a viable and nationally known cham later. After determining that none of the more than 50 pion of conservative causes. Lord knows he could use some persons present was in favor of serious reform, Shaw help in that role, and Jim Buckley has decided to give distributed copies of the survey form to each participant, it to him. Where, if anywhere, this decision may take Mr, then dictated answers to each of the questions ... All of Buckley personally remains to be seen. He is thoroughly the answers dictated by Shaw called for minimal or no content with his seat in the Senate, and may well feel reform." that the national recognition his new role is sure to bring • "Bergen's Moscle Falls to Dazzle Byrne," by Neil can only help, among other things, his own chances for A. Lewis. (Hackensack, N.J.) Record, December 23, 1973. re-election in 1976. But those who watch him closely are "New Jersey Republicans probably will choose Benjamin not ruling anything out." 11 - • "An Otfer Californians Did Refuse," by Bruce Kep to remain in the 'world of issues.' He talked of conserva pel California Jo1lI'lJal, December 1973. Opponents of Cal tive sentiment in America asa 'great unharvested field.' ifornia Gov. Ronald Reagan's tax reform initiative cap There was no question that Buchanan considers himself italized on an offhand remark the governor made on a as the voice of his movement in the Administration to radio talk show. When asked if he thought voters under day and one of its potential intellectual leaders in the stood his proposal's "language," Reagan replied that they future. I wondered if that identity was compatible with "shouldn't try. I don't, either." The comment was picked his role as the Administration's hardest counterpuncher up and used in newspaper advertisements which proclaim in times of trouble. It is known, for example, that Buch ed, "When a proposition's chief sponsor doesn't under anan doesn't believe that John Dean mastermindeq the stand it, it's time for the rest of us to vote no on Propo Watergate cover-up and that he doesn't consider the Pres sition No.1." Keppel concludes that the "ad did capital ident - and certainly those closest to him - above sus ize on one factor that a Los Angeles Times sampling also picion in the case. Yet he carries on the counterattack." detected - that few people understood just what would happen if Proposition 1 passed and so were tending to • "Brickley Cites GOP 'Betrayal,''' by Remer Tyson. decide the issue along partisan lines or in terms of trust Detroit Free Press, December 21, 1973. "Lt. Gov. James ing Reagan. If so, the no vote reflects the continued ero H. Brickley, in a letter explaining to Republican critics sion of Reagan's political popularity in California, from why he thinks President Nixon should resign, Thursday the million-vote majority with which he ousted p.at Brown expressed a 'feeling of. betrayal by those in whom I from the governor's office in 1966, a margin cut in haif placed my trust and confidence based on my deep con by Jess Unruh's weakly financed campaign in 1970." The viction about integrity in government,''' writes Tyson. initiative lost by over 300,000 votes. "During a television interview Dec. 7, Brickley became the first major Michigan Republican to say Nixon should .• "West Tennessean Expected to Bon," .by. Heiu-y resign in the 'best interest' of the ~ountry." Samples. Johnson City (Tennessee) Press-Cbronlcle, De cember 9, 1973. "Strategists for prospective gubernato • "APoHtlcal Giant In Retirement," by John Hinter rial candidates are expecting a West Tennessean to berger. Seattle Times, December 1, 1973. ·'The titular lead emerge for a run at wresting the Republican nomination er of thousands af King County Republicans languishes from Dr. Nat Winston. Such a candidate, the analysts daily in the smoky confines of the Central Tavern, an say, could set the stage for a repeat· of the 1970 GOP unsought sage, an unemployed Colossus. If the old p0- primary, when Winfield Dunn captured his party'l! nom litical customs hold, then J.J. Tiny Freeman, defeat ination with Middle and West Tennessee votes after East ed candidate for Washington's 7th C.D., is his party's Tennessee split between Maxey Jarman and Bill Jenkins." spiritual district chieftain until the next candidate comes Dr. Winston's strength is based in East Tennessee, and along in 1974. But the next Republican candidate to chal the other two Republican candidates, LaMar Alexander lenge Brock Adams will not be Freeman. 'The next thing and Dortch Oldham, are both from Nashville (in Middle I run for will be the Canadian line,' he said, and lumber Tennessee). Among the possible West Tennessee candi ed off to mooch a cigaret." Freeman, the 6'6" bar habitue dates: U.S. Rep. Dan Kuykendall, Memphis State Uni who received the 1972 Republican congressional nomina versity Chancellor C.C. Humphreys, and former Memphis tion because no one else applied, has fallen on hard times. Mayor Henry Loeb. Meanwhile, although Oldham and "Ex-towboatman, former gyppo logger, dozer operator, Alexander are both moderates, Samples says that "most bluegrass disc-jockey who prefers classics, ninth-grade observers are making private bets that the (infiuence of drop-out, he is now sporadically employed as a $100-8- Gov. Dunn and Sen. Howard Baker, Jr.) will finally jell day talent for various advertising agencies." Freeman behind Alexander." still spends most of his time in his old campaign head qUarters, which he says was "ideal" "Where else could • "Holshouser Doesn't Quite Fit GOP 'Reallgnment' you have two pool tables, 18 bar stools, 30 kegs of beer Pattern," by Ferrel Guillory. The News and Observer and 400 gallons of wine? Every once in a while some (Raleigh, N.C.), December 16, 1973. Returning from the body would say, 'It's time to go campaigning,' and we'd Southern Republican Conference in Atlanta, where he make the round of three more bars." found all the GOP talk to be about "realignment" - i.e., the conversion of conservative southern Democrats into • "Connally, Seeking GOP Base for '76 Drive, May Republicans - Guillory observed that Gov. James E. Hols Find It In South," by Christopher Lydon, New York TImes, houser, Jr. "doesn't quite seem to fit in completely with December 10, 1973. "John B. Connally's Republican this ideologically conservative emphasis to 'realign honeymoon ended abruptly last October 10 - the day ment.''' In contrast with the speeches of Gov. Mills God Vice President Agnew resigned - and party leaders as win of Virginia, former White House aide Harry Dent, different as Gov. (Nelson) Rodkefeller of New York and and Nelson Rockefeller, Holshouser's "public remarks were Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona moved with quiet effec not tinged with the same ideological fervor that mark tiveness to head off Mr. Connally's succession to the Vice ed so much of the other discussion." "Rather," reports Presidency .,. Melvin R. Laird, the White House counse Guillory, who is The News and Observer's chief capitol lor and no Connally fan, went so far not long ago as to correspondent, ·'Holshouser has approached the matter tell reporters that if Mr. Connally really wanted to be of party-building more pragmatically. His main concern a Presidential nominee, be should have stayed in the Dem seems to be proving that a Republican Administration OCl'atic party." But at the Southern Republican Confer" can manage state government capably." ence in Atlanta in December, it was evident that Connal ly was only number two in the hearts of southern Repub • "The Ma.k4ng of Flatrlck Buchanan," by Brit Hume. licans. A man named Reagan is very defiinitely number MOBE, January 1974. White House conservative guru one. Rockefeller is rated "acceptable." "After three Patrick Buchanan's "brand of conservatism ... is total months of barnstroming in which he often traveled alone, ly lacking in the libertarian strain that has characterized or with just his wife, Mr. Connally is recruiting staff much conservative thought in this country. He said there help - Dr. George Willeford, the retiring Republican was a breach between libertarians and traditionalists in chairman in Texas, and Brad O'Leary, Dr. Willeford's as the conservative 'movement,' as he called it. He was sistant - to build a tentative national organization." a traditionalist," writes former Jack Anderson legman Writes Lydon, "And even in the South, where Watergate Brit Hume. Throughout his interview with Buchanan, he has made less impression than elsewhere, Republican of "spoke of himself as a member of the conservative move ficials wonder publicly whether Mr. Connally can meet ment. He said when he leaves the White House - which the standards of probity that voters -are expected to ap he said he has no present plans to do - he would like ply on candidates henceforth." RIPON FORUM Published semi-monthly by the Ripon Society, 509 C Street N.E., Washing ton, D.C. 20002. Second class postage paid at Bosto~ Massachusetts.