RIPON

FEBRUARY, 1970 VOL. VI, No. 2 ONE DOLLAR

A Message from the President

t a time when many young people fear that their ideas ~ cannot have an impact on American politics, the members of the Ripon Society have effectively proven otherwise. • By thinking long and hard about public problems and by arguing its positions in a vigorous and reasonable manner, the Rip­ on Society has notably enriched our political dialogue. Its research on issues such as revenue sharing, welfare reform and the draft has ~ade an important contribution to the evolution of national pol­ I ICy. As you may have noticed from time to time, your conclusions usually arouse opposition as well as support. But that is not a bad thing, for intellectual controversy is essential for social progress. Neither the Republican party nor the American government can be effective in the 1970's unless they are vital and venturesome in­ stitutions, always receptive to the new ways of looking at public problems. That is why the party and the government welcome Ripon's impatience with the tired approaches of the past and its readiness to explore ideas "whose time is coming." I have followed with interest the impressive growth of the Ripon Society since I first met with a delegation of its members shortly after its founding. To all who gather tonight to hear my good friend, John Anderson, I extend my warm greetings. And I offer sincere congratulations and best wishes to the members of the Ripon Society as you celebrate your seventh anniversary. Richard Nixon Text of a telegram to Ripon's Seventh Anniversary Dinner Washington, D.C. January 17, 1970 SUMMARY OF CONTENTS TH E RI PO N SOC I ETY I NC fa CI Republic:cm research cmd , • policy orgc:mizcrti~ ...t- members are young business, ac:adeJDic aDd ~ men cmd GUEST EDITORIAL women. It has national headquarters in Gambridoe. Massac:Ilu­ sells. Chapters in eleven cities. National AssoCIate members throughout the fifty states, aod several affiliated groups of sub­ Congressman John B. Anderson, Melvin Laird's suc­ chapter status. The Society fa supported by chapter dues. individ­ cessor as third ranking Republican in the House, was ual contributions and r&V&I1ues from its publications and contrac:t the principal speaker at Ripon's Seventh Anniversary work. The Society offers the following optione for cmnuczl c0n­ tribution: Contributor $25 or more; SuatCliDer $100 or lII0I'&; Dinner. Part of his remarks addressed the dangers fac­ Founder $1000 or more Inq)1irles abOut membership and chapter ing the GOP; he feels the most profound threat is a organization should lie aCidressed to the National Executive policy of exclusiveness. To govern (and be reelected) Director. the Republicans must move to make their party safe for diversity. -3 NATIONAL GOVEJlIfIIfG BOUD Oiilc:.ra ·Josiah Lee Auspitz. President POLITICAL NOTES "J. Eugene Marana. Chalnnczn of the Board "Christopher T. Bayley, Chainn_ of the Executi... e COIIIIDlttee "Howard F. GUlette, Jr., Vic:. President STATE SPOTLIGHT "Robert L. Beal, T...... lUllr "Frank E. Samuel. Jr., Secretary The Sooner State is a political paradox. The GOP Boston Pbilade1phicl holds most of Oklahoma's higher elective offices but ap­ ·Robert Gulick "Richaid R. Block pears dangerously vulnerable in the 1970 elections. Martin A. Linsky Paul Niebanck Michael W. Christian Roger Whittlesey Stephen Jones focuses on the Governor's race, outlining Cambridge the spotty record of the GOP incumbent, Dewey Bartlett "Sam Sherer Seattle and the three Democratic hopefuls nipping at his heels. Howard L. Reiter "Thomas A. Alberg Marc Glass Camden Hall -6 Chi_go WUUam Rodgers "Harold S. Russell John A. Bross. Jr. WCIIIIdacrt_ Benjamin C. Duster "Patricia A. Goldman SPYING, THE CIA AND THE NEW TECHNOLOGY Dallas Stephen E. Herbit. ONeil D. Anderson UnCIa Ie. Lee Agentry and gadgetry - the balance in the spying Howard L. Abramson Robert A. Wilson trade has shifted to the latter. Robert D. Crangle ex­ Hca1ford At~e plains the historic development of full-time, peacetime ·Nicholas Norton ChrIStopher W. Bea1 Alvin Dozeman Richard E. Beeman espionage, the phasing out of the agent, the phasing in William S. Glazier II Robert D. Behn of equipment from the U -2 to the MOL, from computer Loa ,fLnqa. Thomas A. Brown translators to delicate seismographs. The CIA and its "Melvin H. Bernstein Richard M Conley Edward H. McAnifl Ralph B. l:':arle. Jr. sister spy outfits spend a pile on all this gadgetry, and Richard J. Ward, Jr. Carter G. Ford the author examines how the public and Congress can New Hcnrell Emil H. Frankel obtain better surveillance of the agencies whose job it ·WilIiam E Craig "Lee W. Huebner Paul C C!apra Philip C Johnson is to "read other people's mail." -7 Willicnri H. leffress, Jr. William 1. Iei1berg NelW York W. Stuart Parsons "Richard Zimm ..r Thomas E. Petri Robert L. Musser "John R. Price. Jr. YEAR AFTER POLL RESULTS Judah C. Sommer ""Peter J. Wallison Ripon readers have definite opinions - and they un­ Ex·OiiIc:Io At Large burdened themselves on resident pollster Ralph B. Ear!e, "Clair W. Rodgers. Jr., National Executi.... DUec:lor Jr. You may not have given Agnew an F or supported Michael S. Lottman. Edltor of the Bipon FORUM Lindsay as the great white hope .•• But you should be Michael F. Brewer. Political ~r mildly surprised at the average-Riponer's opinions on Howard L. Reiter. Research DUec:lor the past and the clouded future. -15 'Natlonal Executi... e Committee :Member "Past President or Chcdnn_ of the Board

THE RIPON FORUM is I?ublisbed monthly by the Ripon BOOK REVIEW SOCl8ty Inc.. 14a Eliot Street. Cam­ bridge, Massachusetts 02138. Secon~ class postage rates paid at Urban Dynamics, according to author James Hester, Boston. Massachusetts. Contents are copyrighted © 1970 by the Ripon Society. Inc. Correspondence addressed to the Editor is is the product of an MIT professor and an IBM com­ welcomed. puter. These Improbable parents have foaled a compre­ In publishing this magazine the Ripon Society seeks to pro­ hensive model of the life cycle of a "typical" U.S. city. vide a forum for fresh ideas, well-researched proposals God for a spirit of criticism, innovation. and Independent fhinkinq within This model is to be used as a tool by policy makers. Mr. the RepublicUnited States of America. The first such danger We want the Holtons and the Bushes, but we want is sectionalism. the Lindsays and the Sargents as well. Our challenge We have heard a good deal in Washington these is to make the Republican Party safe for diversity. past few months about the so-called "Southern stra­ There is a second shoal which we must avoid, tegy." There may be a short-sighted few who see an and that is the danger of po1ariza.tion in our body Emerging Republican Majority based on writing off politic. Some political commentators have become ac­ one or more sections or groups within our country. The customed to calling the Democrati~ Party the party of charge has been made that the Nixon Administr~on, the young, the poor and the blacks. At the present under the subtle direction of Attorney General Mitch­ time, let us admit it, much of the appeal of the na­ ell, is making a calculated attempt to woo the conserva­ tional Democratic Party is aimed at the "out" groups tive South at the expense of the more liberal North­ in our society - the poor and the black, the alienated east. I cannot speak for the Attorney General, or for educated, and the young, although the recent year-end his appointees. I do feel that the President himself statement of Oemocratic National Chairman Harris, in has clearly repudiated a "Southern Strategy," or any which he seized on crime and inflation as the viable other strategy based on sectional interests. I. believe he issues for 1970 may herald an attempt to shift the liOderstands that such a strategy would be folly for the appeal to Mr. and Mrs. Middle American. But we party and tragedy for the nation. cannot afford to leave these groups entirely to the ALTERNATE STRATEGY Democrats. We cannot afford to become the party o~ But if the Republican Party cannot afford a the elderly, the afHuent and the white. The young will "Southern Strategy," does that mean that we write off elect tomorrow's presidents. The educated will shape I a strategy for the South? No. Now a vigorous and tomorrow's opinions. The poor and the black will effective Republican party, led by young and attractive dream tomorrow's dreams. Let us look for a minute men, is emerging in the South to challenge the mori­ at each of these groups. bund Democratic party for the imagination of the elec­ THE ONLY HOPE? torate across this great region. Republicans in Rich­ In an article entitled "The Failure of Black Sep­ mond this very night are celebrating the election of the aratism" civil rights leader Bayard Rustin reaches the first Republican Governor of Virginia since the Civil conclusion that "it is the trade union movement and War. Linwood H~lton promises to bring forward­ the Democratic party which offer the greatest leverage looking government to Virginia and fresh, moderate to the black struggle." He reaches this conclusion in appeal to the emerging Southern G.O.P. In Texas the large part because' of the expressed belief that "the party is putting up one of its most attractive young Democratic Party is still the only mass-based political Congressman, George Bush, for the Senate seat now organization in the country with the potential to be­ held by an aging arid uninspired Democrat. It is hap­ come a majority movement for social change." I find it pening across the South - new energy released by new not only interesting but I believe inconsistent to as­ competition, based not on an appeal to prejudice but cribe all of this to a party which has only the potential, on an appeal to the hopes of all Southerners for pro­ i.e., the future possibility and then to claim that it gress. and development. represents the only hope for major social change. As a party we need a Strategy for the South. In Mr. Rustin's article was presumably written be­ shaping that strategy we must reject the pull of sec­ fore the vote in the House on the Philadelphia Plan tional interest and prejudice. Our party must be in­ which was, of course, rescued from certain death only clusive, not exclusive. As our society is complex and by strong support from the President, Secretary This editorial is taken from remarks made by The Shultz, Arthur Fletcher and others in the administra­ Hon. John B. Andeuon, Member of Congress and tion and a clear majority of Senate and House Repub­ Chairman of the House Republican Conference, at the licans. This plan to bring blacks into the skilled trades Ripon Society's Seventh Anniversary Banquet, January of the construction industry has been dismissed by 17, 1970. George Meany as a "concoction and contrivance." Rather than brook his wrath many of my liberal Dem-

3 ocratic colleagues voted to sandbag the Philadelphia they reply, commitment to what? To institutions Plan even as they were genuflecting to the cause of which have grown threadbare in their attempt to im­ civil rights. part a respectable covering for the bare bones of ir­ I was interested to read Mr. Meany's remarks this relevance and inaction which might otherwise be week before the Press Oub where he issued a devas­ exposed. They echo something of the feeling of Pas­ tating reply to the charge,to quote him: "You don't cal who said, "Judges have to wear wigs and robes to let the black boys into the highly skilled trades. ~ey hide the inadequacy of. the justice they dispense, only do the low wage, dirty jobs." To all of this which would otherwise be all too apparent." This is George merrily replied - it ain\~o.7"" there are no not to single the judiciary out for special opprobrium. low wage jobs in the building trades and all the jobs There are many other institutions of corporate society are dirty. of equal vulnerability. Quite in contrast to Bayard Rustin a distinguished IN NEITHER PARTY Negro journalist Carl Rowan says in answer to the Back in 1964 the Ripon Society counselled a question: Is the black man chained to the Democratic moderate course of progressive Republicanism in the Party? "Absolutely Not!" But I am sure Mr. Nixon statement entitled: "A Call to Excellence in Leader­ is aware as anyone that whereas he polled lout of ev­ ship." You said that "we must win the confidence of ery 3 black votes in 1960 in a narrow loss to John Ken­ the New Americans who are not at home in the poli­ nedy that in. 1968 he received less than lout of 10 tics of another generation." Today with 24 million of those votes. I am willing to agree that it will be a Americans between 21 and .29, only 22% consider tough job to convince blacks that some for}Il of South­ themselves Republican; 38%, Democrats; and the ern strategy is not in operation or that we do not dis­ largest bloc, 40%, rate themselves as Independents dain their votes. It must be done; it can be done. Let with no desire to identify with either party. us continually point out to them that the Administra­ As someone who is dedicated to the preservation tion's strong stand on the Philadelphia Plan to push of the essential framework of our American political for more high paying jobs in the skilled trades for system, I find these deeply disturbing statistics. biacks is hardly consistent with a Southern strategy. The Administration's Family Assistance Program, the What the Gallup poll indicated was that the vast commitment to abolish hunger, the battle to mass­ majority of our educated young people do not feel produce low-cost housing under Operation Break­ that political parties are fulfilling their function; they through are evidence that the Republican Party and are not working and perhaps not worth preserving. the present Administration are aware of the unmet We have to ask whether the Republican party is worth social needs of our country. preserving. I passionately believe that it is. But what the young are forcing us to do is to ask whether the ALIENATED ARLO principles that have served us so well are being applied What we have said about the blacks and the poor as intelligently and tenaciously as possible to the new applies with equal force to the young, and especially problems that we face. to those whom I have called the "alienated educated." I was 4tterested in what Arlo Guthrie had to say GOP CHALLENGE recel).tly in an interview with Mel Gusson of the New The challenge to our party and a group like York Times. Ripon is to develop programs that will be effective and "We're not a whole group of people involved in whose potential consequences have been explored and a plot. Some look strange. They act strange. Some are known as fully as possible. look ferocious. Some look gentle. They do things This is your seventh year. Seven is the number that are paradoxical, that make no sense at all. It's which to some represents a time for pause. We speak only by making no sense that you can make some of a sabbatical leave. The Scriptures often used the sense, by having no self-gratifying goal that you can number seven to represent perfection or completion. ever really fulfill yourself. Until everyboc:ly finds that "And on the seventh day God ended his work which out, they're going to be uptight, upset, popping up­ he had made, and he rested on the seventh day." pers, downers, drinking booze, smoking dope. Instant However, aside from Biblical numerology I find no Glory!" reason to assume that this young, virile, and purpose­ I believe that the Republican Party must be a ful organization has reached a plateau of mere con­ party which speaks to the youth of our time - to templative activity. Rather, I would like to think you those who may look strange and act strange; to those have just struck your base camp and are beginning an who look both gentle and ferocious. I myself have assault on those sheer and often dangerous sides of often chided those of the present generation of youth the mountain that represent continuing challenge to who although they manifest great concern have not those who have not been captured by the establish­ truly demonstrated any great commitment. To which mentarianism of the age.

4 last October. One mont.. later, the Govemor held a rally supporting the Administration's position in Viet­ Politieal Notes nam on the grounds of the state capitol while Hayes was participating in the March on Washington. A splinter group calling itself ''The New Party" is TENNESSEE: a not so improbable drawing publicity if little widespread support. Composed candidate primarily of former backers of Senator Eugene Mc­ Carthy and Robert Kennedy, the party is reportedly trying to win over Hayes. The Lieutenant Governor has The improbable senatorial candidacy of Woodward not turned down their bid but neither has he indicated Maurice "Tex" Ritter, the 65-year-old cowboy singer, more than a passing interest in their activities. may not be so improbable after all. Ritter, the veteran Governor Davis seems determined to run for a sec­ movie actor and Grand Ole Opry star, announced his ond term this November. His January 8 address to the candidacy for the Republican Senate nomination shortly Legislature on pollution and environment proposed an after the beginning of the year. The idea at first may overall land development plan and strict permit require­ have seemed ludicrous to some - and besides, the GOP ments for dumping of wastes into the Green Mountain already had a Senate candidate in U. S. Representative State's rivers or lakes. Davis has also developed a gov­ William E. Brock of Chattanooga. ernment reorganization plan creating a cabinet form of But on closer inspection, Ritter appeared to have State government with eight secretaries. In addition, some qualifications for the job (or at least the nomina­ President Nixon's fomily-assistance program may go into tion). As would any GOP (or Democratic) hopeful in effect in Vermont as a pilot project. The additional $5 Tennessee, he stood to the right of the incumbent, million in federal funds would be a boon to Davis' Democrat Albert Gore. ("He could at least have sup­ popularity. The Governor's son, Thomas Davis, is OEO ported Judge Haynsworth," Ritter said of Gore.) On the director for Vermont. Appointed by Governor Hoff, Davis other hand, Ritter offered an alternative to the unre­ developed a negative income tax plan similar to the lieved conservatism of Congressman Brock. And besides model proposed by the President. Welfare has been a his keen interest in politics, Ritter could point to a touchy subject for Davis. The resignation of State Wel­ political science degree, somewhat dusty, from the Uni­ fare commissioner John Wackerman and legislative versity of Texas, as well as two years of law school. and executive investigations have caused morale within Finally, Tennessee politicians still remembered how the department to plummet. But Davis, with a 100-50 county singer Roy Acuff, running for Governor in 1948, majority in the Vermont House and a 22-8 majority in drew huge crowds, carried 27 counties in the general the Senate should have little trouble enacting his legis­ It election, and ran up the biggest Republican vote total lation and coming before the voters as a successful, ever recorded in Tennessee up to that time. concerned and progressive Governor and candidate. Ritter is identified with the Howard Baker wing of In other races, Congressman Robert Stafford will the Tennessee GOP, and his candidacy did not delight probably run unopposed for the lone House seat. Former the members of the other wing, led by Brock. Senator Governor Hoff is expected to announce for the Senate Baker himself has maintained a hands-off attitude, but seat held by Winston Prouty. Hoff is expected to play Ritter will form a "ticket" with gubernatorial candidate on Prouty's support of the ABM, Haynsworth and the Claude Robertson of Knoxville, Baker's 1966 campaign Nixon Vietnam policy. manager and a staunch Baker ally. Robertson appears to be the leading Republican contender for Governor, although others - like Maxie Jarman of the Genesco industrial complex, former Mental Health Commissioner Dr. Nat Winston, House Speaker William Jenkins of FLORIDA: Kirk balks; Rogersville and State Senator Thomas Garland of Green­ ville - may yet come to the surface. is off and running

VERMONT: a split ticket Claude Kirk, Florida's first Republican Governor in 94 years, has evidently carried his campaign for re­ election all the way to Washington. Kirk politely in­ A rift between Governor Deane C. Davis and his formed the U.S. Supreme Court in January that his Lieutenant Governor, Thomas Hayes, seems to have state was "financially and physically unable" to meet been smoothed over - for the moment. Hayes has the court's deadline for immediate school integration. announced that he will neither run for reelection nor In a carefully hedged motion delivered personally to the run against Davis in the upcoming primary - but the court, Kirk said he would order all affected Florida Lieutenant Governor has not foreclosed the possibility counties "not to alter or change the school calendar of seeking office as a DeD.ocrat. during mid-year." or to "take any action which would The split between the two broke into the open when cause the schools to close in order to transfer personnel Hayes joined former Democratic Gavernor Philip Hoff in and pupils, and not to incur any expenses for which speaking to crowds of students and other dissenters on current county and state funds are unavailable." the University of Vermont campus on Moratorium Day -please tllrn to page 22 5 STATE SPOTLIGHT: OKLAHOMA

Bartlett and the Sooner State Paradox Oklahoma Republicans today hold five of t"he AN LBJ Jones, a young Tulsa at- state's major elective offices - U.S. Senator, Gover­ CONFIDANT torney, has just turned 31, nor, Attorney General, Lal::or Commissioner and the minimum age for a Governor of Oklahoma. Jones Justice of the Supreme COl,;rt. A Republican serves by is a former appointment secretary to President John­ appointment as Superintendent of Public Instruction. son, and was very much an insider at the White House And Oklahoma has voted Republican in every presi­ during the last year and a half of the Johnson Admin­ dential election since 1952, except for 1964. istration. He is attempting to parlay this Washington Yet despite all this, Republican chances for re­ experience into the basis of a gubernatorial campaign. electing Governor Dewey Bartlett in 1970 are now There is some feeling, however, that he has been out rated no better than 50-50. There are several reasons of the state too long, and is attempting to reach too for this paradoxical situation. high too soon. Jones is now ranked third among the Democratic front-runners and is given almost no GRASS ROOTS For one thing, the GOP chance to win the nomination. His chances could im­ is still weak at the grass WEAKNESS prove if for some reason Hall drops out of the race. roots. Only a handful of court houses are controlled Otherwise, as Hall and Jones are both from Tulsa, by Republicans, and in more than half of the counties, they will likely split the urban vote there. there are no Republican office-holders at all. Further­ more, the GOP still holds less than a quarter of the This geographical coincidence is not the only ele­ seats in the state legislature, and the party has let ment the three leading Democrats have in common. Democrats get by even in traditional Republican Hall, Greve and Jones all appeal to the same class of strongholds. voters - the moderate, young and middle-aged resi­ Past Republican successes in Oklahoma have come dents of the larger counties. For probably the first time primarily as a result of ineptitude and division among since Oklahoma became a state, there will be no Dem­ Oklahoma Democrats. But the state's Democratic party ocratic candidate championing the rural and welfare is not as split as it once was. Besides pulling them­ blo~, which still represents considerable voting selves together, Democrats have also hired a public strength. Indeed, if Jones, Greve and Hall are the relations director and generally geared up their party only Democratic candidates, the primary race is likely machinery. Furthermore, the three leading contenders to turn on personalities, because the programs of the for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination all wear three candidates are almost indistinguishable. the reform label; none of them is associated with the old guard, or more importantly, with the mistakes of QUICKIE HIRE In this type of situation, AND FIRE the initiative is left pretty the past. much with Governor Bartlett. Early in his administra­ POLITICAL Don Greve, president of tion, this would not have been an encouraging develop­ TABULA RASA Sequoyah Mills, is prob­ ment, but lately the Governor has shown greater confi­ ably the leading candidate for the Democratic nomina­ dence in himself and in his own judgment and ability tion. He has the advantages of good financing, an than he displayed during his first year in office. In that attractive personality, and a clean political slate. hectic period, gubernatorial assistants were hired and Through his efforts, moreover, several Sequoyah Mills fired regularly, often on no more than a day's notice; plants have been located in depressed areas of Okla­ the Governor's personal secretary, press secretary, le­ homa. Greve has hired two old campaigners to give gal assistant, and administrative assistant all resigned. his organization a professional touch; however, to the The Governor also appeared indecisive, forever public, Greve still looks like a young amateur trying appointing study commissions or referring matters to desperately to find political allies. his staff. A reporter once. noted that Bartlett used the The second Democratic contender, former Tulsa expression, "I haven't come to any final decision on County Prosecutor David Hall, ran a strong third in that," 27 times in a single press conference. The Gov­ the 1966 primary, and almost edged into the run-off on ernor seemed preoccupied with bringing new industry the basis of his support in the urban centers. Hall has to the state; it was difficult to get his attention on any never ceased running for something, and has the ad­ other problem, except perhaps riot control. vantage of being better known than either Greve or Since that time, though, the Governor has shown the third candidate, Jim Jones. -please lurn 10 page 21 6 Is the Secret Agent Obsolete? Spying, the CIA and the New Technology

Since.World War Two the methods of gathering phenomenon. The framework of espionage was war; information for national intelligence have changed spies were sent out and resident agents were paid to drastically. Highly trained professional analysts, using obtain tactical information about impending battles advanced technologies as their tools, have create~ or, sometimes, about persons plotting revolution from bureaucracies to learn in detail those things which abroad. nations prefer to keep secret. The new intelligence IN TIME OF PEACE methodology, composed of the new technologies and The Second World War found the U.S.S.R. with the skilled experts who employ them, has substantially the most extensive and best organized intelligence de-emphasized the importance of the traditional es­ bureaucracy in the world. The great mass of prior in­ pionage agent in collecting and evaluating informa­ formation gathered by the networks was of secondary tion. importance. The significant point was that agents Espionage agencies have two overlapping func­ were in place for all wartime eventualities. The West­ tions. One is gathering and processing raw informa­ ern nations often had only cursory foreign intelligence tion to create "intelligence." The other is using intel­ organizations at that time. Some nations, like the ligence to plan and conduct "operations." The abort­ United States, had to construct intelligence and espion­ ive Bay of Pigs invasion was an operation; the U-2 age agencies from scratch. The demands of that war, flights, often called operations, were in fact missions and later happenings, entrenched peacetime espionage. to collect information. Communications, transportation, and warfare have put THE UNSPECIALIZED SPY the world's countries only minutes apart, with proxim­ Intelligence must be further divided between ity creating a "need to know" independent of shooting information which is physically obvious and that war. National freedom of action, if not survival, re­ which, like a decision or intention, is not. The first qci.res decisions to be based on information often kept can be seen and/or recorded from overhead or over secret; to obtain that information requires espionage the horizon, the second cannot be. Before World War on a year-in, year-out basis. Today espionage activities Two the distinction had little meaning, because both are structured to gather two primary kinds of knowl­ forms were obtained by agents reporting to headquar­ edge: of physical events that can be .seen or heard ters. The agent was sent out to discover the location from a distance and of events that cannot be. This of the enemy army (something he could see from a restructuring took place in World War Two, when the distant hill) and to learn when and where the army physically obvious/non-obvious distinction assumed planned to march (something he could not). He great significance. sought out the physical location of military research When the Cold War began, the Allies were ner­ and development sites, then infiltrated them to ascer­ vous and concerned. The Soviet Union was at work tain what new projects were being worked on. He on rockets and nuclear weapons, relying heavily on mapped communication and transportation networks, captured German raw materials, equipment, factories, but he also tried to intercept messages and examine special tooling and technical personnel. In the late cargo shipments. He looked for factory complexes and 1940's and early 1950's, the threat of deliverable So­ stole production, shipping, and storage schedules. The viet special weapons was real, but the West had no agent was a generalist. intelligence on the subject. There were no important Only in this century has the gathering of informa­ agents in the USSR, Russian press and scientific jour­ tion by agents and other means become a peacetime nals were tightly censored, and travel by both natives and foreigners was severely restricted. Unless the Iron THE AUTHOR Curtain could be penetrated, the Allies faced serious Robert D. Crangle has a BS. in Nuclear Engin­ military and diplomatic problems. eering from Kansas State University and a J.D. from the Harvard Law School. He is employed by Har­ THE CIA UNLEASHED The solution seemed to lie in the successful bridge House, Inc., a Boston-based professional firm World War Two techniques. Aerial photography had that provides research, educational and consulting ser­ been used extensively to locate radar sites, research vices to a wide variety of clients. Mr. Crangle has centers and other physically obvious things. Code­ held both local' 4nd national positions in the Ripon breaking had been employed to learn tactical and Society. strategic enemy plans, and had been especially success-

7 ful in the Pacific. Skilled scientific personnel had been is difficult because it requires knowing the complexities used to both analyze data and administer the intelli­ of use and meaning of two sophisticated languages. gence attack on the technical problems. In the United "Knowing", to a computer, is being programmed with States, the CIA was building a staff of educated spe­ complete synonym tables; that is, when a Chinese word cialists. Following the 1949 Act that freed it of is encountered, the five possible English translations many bureaucratic entanglements, it reached out must be contained in a file. The proper translation is towards excellence in analysis of such raw informati,on indicated by the position of the Chinese word in the as could be obtained. sentence, by the use of other Chinese words that ex­ During the Korean War, President Truman took plain the context of the sentence in the article, or by another step in the improved utilization of World some similar structural device. Building adequate War Two te~hniques. He established the National translation programs is exceptionally difficult. Millions Security Agency by classified executive order, lodging of dollars have been spent, seemingly only to prove it in the Department of Defense. NSA became the that human translations are far superior. However, central code-breaking agency of the United States. the machine translation achieves the desired result of Primary input to the staff of cryptanalysts came from conserving scarce manpower resources for use on the air, sea, and land-based listening posts on the peri­ passages where translation is particularly difficult. meter of the Communist nations. The combined CIA­ NSA analyses began providing accurate appraisals of SCAN AND MASTER INDEX Automatic indexing allows the CIA to do some­ both the physically obvious and the physically non­ thing otherwise impossible because of the magnitude obvious elements of Soviet and Chinese strategy. of the operation. Optical scanners read each page of The task was to separate meaningful signals from text into computer memory, where the words most a flood of background noise. Technology held the frequently used (except for "a", "an", "the", and over key. Five fields collectively delineate the technological a hundred more lacking informational content) are boundaries of the new intelligence methodology of the identified. The presence of key words is recorded in a u.S. They are data processing; "other" electronics, massive master index of words and phrases. If the including ferreting and listening devices; photogra­ words "Australia", "submarine", "oceanography", phy; overhead surveillance platforms; and seismology. and the phrase "volcanic reef" were key words in a Data Processing given article, then that article would be referenced The data processing industry is the youngest but under all four words. Once the indexing is completed, most influential of the five disciplines. Computers are the original is stored on microfilm to conserve space. used in normal agency office routine, cryptography, Someone later desiring the complete text goes to a language translation, information retrieval, and other viewing screen and keys in the document number. The areas. Each of the other four disciplines depends entire article is unrolled on the screen before him, after heavily on the use of computers. a two to ten second pause. Such indexing is done to The most widespread use of data processing to­ facilitate fast retrieval of stored information, one of day is the routine office work, such as bookkeeping, the most crucial practical uses of the computer. supplies inventory, or employee recordkeeping. It is Analysis of the data processing-intelligence rela­ safe to assume that the CIA and NSA exercise com­ tionship is incomplete without mentioning the vital puters for this purpose too. Within the agencies importance of computers to each of the remaining four different people have access to specific parts of the technical components of the new methodology now data base, and the system locks unauthorized person­ under discussion. Mathematical models simulate new nel out of restricted files. Personnel dossiers contain hardware and the testing thereof before they are con­ and index of all the skills represented in, or available structed. Cameras, radar, electronic ferreting equip­ to, each agency. ment, airframes, satellites, seismographs, and all other An example of the symbiosis between intelligence equipment can be designed on computers for a first and computers is the massive CIA library operation. approximation (or better) evaluation. Communica­ The CIA subscribes· to virtually every publication in tions networks are planned for maximum dependabil­ the world as part of its overt intelligence collection. ity, least cost or optimum efficiency by letting comput­ Hundreds of thousands of books, magazines, and ers do the work. New factories, systems, and sub­ newspapers in hundreds of languages arrive each systems are scheduled by computer. Resource alloca­ month. The intelligence problem is to read each of tion is done routinely with data processing. Actual these, recognize what is pertinent, and disseminate the production and assembly-line testing of alloys, chemi­ information to the proper analysts and file records. cal compositions, and final hardware are done with The CIA would be helpless without such techniques special-purpose data-acquisition computers. Computers, as computerized language translation, automatic index­ are an integral part of reconnaissance and surveillance ing, and information retrieval. Language translation equipment. The data processing industry is both hand-

8 maiden and midwife to the technologies of the new munist airspace and keep going in until the target methodology. equipment was switched on and the required informa­ Other Electronics tion was obtained. From 1950 until early 1964, 108 "Other electronics" includes the entire panoply American airmen were killed or captured on ferreting of defensive and offensive electronic systems. It in­ missions, according to information then made public. cludes radar, magnetic tape recorders, electromagnetic Both nations maintain fleets of ferret ships with "cov­ reconnaissance reCeivers, communication and listening ers," although since the Pueblo incident the United devices, countermeasures equipment and the rest of States has announced that its ferret surface ships are "black box technology." It. is the oldest of the five being phased out. intelligence disciplines. Prior to World War Two the Photography United States Army and Navy regularly listened to Aerial photography was used in World War Two messages sent among diplomatic and military missions to detect targets for bombing runs and to keep track throughout the world, the task performed today by the of enemy operations. The advances in both cameras NSA. During the Second World War radar became and film since the end of the war have been phenom­ an important tactical weapon in the battles of elec­ enal. Most modern U. S. photographic needs are met tronics between Germany and the Allies, and develop­ by using satellites and special aircraft. ment of sophisticated radar and radar countermeasures Information about both cameras and film is top was given top priority. secret. The requirements of the intelligence commu­ During the Cold War, the United States erected nity, the sums spent on surveillance platforms, the first the Pine Tree Line, then the Mid-Canada, and Washington bureaucracy created to interpret the fin­ finally the DEW line of strategic defensive radar. ished product, and public showings of the photographs Since the early 1960's radar for ballistic missile de­ allow their performances to be evaluated without ac­ fense has been under development and dep~oyment by cess to restricted data. The factors for consideration both the Soviet Union and the United States; radar is are precise. The photographs allow objects only one the heart of anti-ballistic missile systems under con­ or two inches in diameter to be distinguished; it is struction. reported that under perfect conditions the rank can be Electronics are used by intelligence organizations read from a Soviet officer's shoulder from 100 to 300 to send and intercept messages, perform and protect miles overhead. They are taken from above 100,000 surveillance missions, and probe foreign offensive and feet; that is, above 95 percent or 97 percent of the defensive electronic systems. Message interception has atmosphere. They are taken from speeds in excess of come a long way from the 1929 days when Secretary 2,000 miles per hour. Many are in color. Much of of State Henry Stimson, discovering that such activity the film is heat-sensitive rather than light sensitive. was conducted by his department, shut it down with the comment that gentlemen do not read other people's EXTRAORDINARY FOCUS mail. However, covert interception continued in the The first conclusion must be that the film is grain­ armed forces as a proper governmental activity. A less. If grained film were used, the smallest object notable record exists of message-interception in the detectable from 100,000 feet would have to be large Pacific before and during World War II when most enough to chemically activate the average-sized grain. Japanese diplomatic and military moves were charted Grain sizes are large enough that distinctions between by United States codebreakers. two objects only an inch apart are unlikely, regardless of the telescopic lens used. The second conclusion is A FLEET OF FERRETS that the cameras must have extraordinary foca11engths, The United States initiated ferreting flights along on the order of 400 or 500 inches. Practical considera­ the entire perimeter of the Communist world after the tions for long focal lengths indicate that a folded op­ Cold War began. Soviet aircraft began the same func­ tics system is used in order to fit the camera into an tion in reverse, with one major distinction: Soviet over­ aircraft's limited fuselage diameter. Third, the shutter flights were much less common than American viola­ must move at electronic, rather than mechanical, tions of Soviet air space. The apparent cause was the speeds (if a shutter is used). Otherwise, regardless of use made of the electronic defensive equipment that the film and the focal length, small-scale resolution ferrets try to sniff out. The United States kept all of would be unlikely because of blurring. Fourth, laser their radar and radio equipment on at all times, allow­ technology and holography is used to obtain three­ ing Soviet spy planes to record signal strengths, fre­ dimensional data. Fifth, each photograph must be quency data, point of origin of sending stations, and simultaneously identified with the precise date and range from international airspace. However, much of time, three-dimensional coordinates of the camera, and the Soviet radar and radio was turned on only in the the solid angle deflection from a line passing from the event of an actual or threatened overflight. To obtain center of the earth to the center of the lens. This their data, the American ferrets had to penetrate com- information allows the analysts to computerize their

9 operation. When they later want to examine a certain radar. The CIA, in late 1954, won authorization to location at a given time they indicate the coordinates begin the project. Lockheed designed, built, and flew and the date to get the desired photograph. The tech­ the plane by August, 1955. The likelihood is that nology is adequate to require the services of over a Lo::kheed had done much of the work prior to award thousand full-time interpreters (up from one in 195.1) of the actual contract, and indeed had encouraged the supported by exotic equipment at the independent Na­ government to proceed. Cameras were assembled for tional Photograhic Interpretation Center. high-altitude photography. President Eisenhower gave The interpretation process can be rewnstructed the U-2 a trial go-ahead in 1956, and it returned un­ with probable accuracy by comparing published com­ harmed with superb photographs of the Kremlin. ments. the requirements of efficient analysis, and the The U-2 flew continuously over the Soviet Union capabilities of data processing and other electronics. from 1956 until May Day. 1960, when one was shot An analyst sits at a console consisting of a viewing down on an otherwise routine mission. Although screen and a special keyboard. The latest composite there was some doubt that the Soviet missile had in photograph of an area regularly examined by the fact reached the U-2 at its full operating altitude. analyst is projected. seemingly in three dimensions, on further flights over Russia were cancelled. The U-2 the screen. To examine more closely a strange object was diverted to less dangerous duty. Perimeter flights near the edge of the picture, he moves the picture so were made around the U.S.S.R., and reconnaissance that the object is centered. Then. with successive de­ overflights of those Communist nations which were pressions of a button, he "blows up" the object until unequipped with the improved performance surface­ it fills the entire s::reen. He uses another button to to-air missile. Many other agencies of the government, flash a "heat map" on the screen that enables him to such as NASA and the weather bureau, were able to evaluate the temperature of the object and its sur­ use as many U-2's as they could obtain for high-alti- roundings. He returns to the original "light map". tude research work. ' By pressing buttons he moves his perspective: the three-dimensional image is electronically "turned" so SON OF U-2 that he can see it from the side and front. Once more However, as early as 1957. the CIA was urging he returns to the original image, then requests an his­ that a second-generation high-altitude aircraft be con­ torical scan of the location of the object. All previous structed. By the time overflights of the Soviet Union photographs of the location flash consecutively on the were stopped. Lockheed was well along toward de­ screen, all from the same perspective as the one with velopment of the RS-71 (built as the A-12, introduced the object centered in it. A computerized file search is mistakenly by President Johnson as the A-II and requested to see if similar objects have been identified known briefly as the YF-12A Interceptor). The RS-71 elsewhere. Finally the analyst key-enters a description, shares very little with the U-2 except Lockheed, light­ location, and his judgment of the origin and function weight construction, high altitude performance, and a of the object and resets the screen to the original com­ workhorse reconnaissance function for American intel­ posite photograph showing the object as a small some­ ligence agencies. It has been flying at least since 1963. thing near the edge of the screen. Lasers, holography, although the date of the first flight is publically un­ data processing and film technology provide informa­ known. tion never dreamed of by traditional agents. A Soviet territory reconnaissance gap failed to materialize between the U-2 and RS-71 because the Oz'erhead Sllrt'eillallce Platforms United States had been working at top priority on An outgrowth of World War Two technology was aerial reconnaissance. Postwar aircraft, and even Korean War planes, were inadequate to act as long­ range surveillance platforms. To reach the Soviet heartland required challenging radar, anti-aircraft guns, and interceptors. The first attempt, a joint British­ American effort, was to use a Canberra bomber on a flight from Germany to Iran, over the Soviet missile test site. The mission was a success, but the Canberra was nearly shot down. SAY CHEESE, NIKITA The Eisenhower Administration was very con­ cerned about surprise attacks. A subcommittee of a group assembled to consider the problem suggested construction of a radically new airplane that would be able to fly above flak, interceptors, and perhaps even

10 orbital reconnaissance satellites. The first such sa' Tte tent. Located in friendly countries or in the United was launched by the Air Force in August, 1960, a, .... e States, they record the exact date and time of an explo­ same time that U-2 pilot Powers was on trial for es­ sion (something electronic interception could also do), pionage by flying a plane over Soviet territory that the exa::t: location of the blast (already located by was equipped with cameras and tape recorders. The reconnaissance), the depth of the explosion and the satellites have two methods of returning information: type of rock it was in (information either an agent or by radio and by parachute drop. Photographs from the electronic interception could provide), and the prob­ first satellite package were said to be almost as good as able yield (again, obtainable from an agent or an in­ those from the U-2. There were two series of recon­ tercepted message). Seismology protects other sources naissance satellites originally, Midas and Samos. The of information while accomplishing independent, in­ current programs are under very tight security, but the stantaneous detection. satellites are providing the most commonly used means Seismology has been an important technology in for gaining intelligence. American diplomacy since the mid-1950's. The early Reconnaissance satellite launches are conducted discussions of nuclear test ban treaties centered on the and paid for by the Defense Department at a cost re­ feasibility of detecting underground and low-yield sur­ ported to be about $1 billion annually. Experience face explosions. There was general agreement that gained from the program feeds into both the NASA seismographic equipment (existing and planned) spa~e exploration and the Air Force military projects, could not unequivocally detect all nuclear explosions. which in turn provide major assistance to the orbiting This scientific reservation, apparently coupled with a surveillance mission. The Soviet Union's "spy in the paucity of well-placed agents, led directly to the United sky" Cosmos satellites are less frequently launched, States bargaining posture that at least some on-site in­ but they nevertheless maintain continued photographic spections be allowed as part of an underground nuclear and electronic vigilance for 'Russia. The American test ban treaty. As scientific confidence in seismogra­ Manned Orbiting Laboratory (MOL) program, on phic detection and identification increased, the number which work has been at least temporarily halted, repre­ of inspections demanded by the Americans decreased sents the next stage of reconnaissance platform. MOL (but did not vanish). The technical differences among can be conceptualized in part as an orbiting command problems of detection in space, the atmosphere, under­ post able to direct unmanned surveill~ce satellites as ground and in the ocean were sorted out for independ­ well as being an inspection station itself. Men, sup­ ent evaluation. plies and equipment will be shuttled back and forth A MEANINGFUL SHOCK with rockets and guided lifting surfaces. Laser tech­ American seismology ability is unclear. It is least nology will provide secure communications to ground advanced among the five disciplines of the new intelli­ stations. The cost of the MOL will be staggering, if gence methodology and may never equal the capabili­ continued. The Soviet Union almost certainly is work­ ties of the others. Continued research and develop­ ing on parallel developments. ment in using Forier analysis and statistical methods NO GROUND AGENTS on repetitive event data will eventually allow detection The World War Two low-level aerial reconnais­ of very small events. The greatest problem is, and will sance programs have mushroomed into the single larg­ continue to be, accurate interpretation of recorded est cost component of the American information gath­ seismic data. Computer analysis of seismic information ering service. Overhead manned and unmanned plat­ is the only possible means of distinguishing the smaller forms have revolutionized intelligence by allowing shocks from the random background. It may some­ cameras and electromagnetic surveillance gear to obtain day be possible to follow the progress of drilling, direct evidence of foreign objects which are physically excavation, and mining operations in remote, seismi­ obvious without having to train and deploy ground cally quiet areas. If so, both civilian and military agents. They have successfully carried out the 1955 activity will be followed from great distances. Eisenhower "Open Skies" proposal and have done it The NeU' Methodology and the CIA with neither treaty nor much public notice. The contribution of the five disciplines to intelli­ Seismology . gence operations has made the CIA one of the leading Detection of Soviet underground tests is possible science-based agencies in Washington. Its raw data today using electronic surveillance techniques that al­ is gathered with the world's most advanced aircraft low American intelligence officers to sit in on the and satellites. The nation's leading research and de­ countdowns from over-the-horizon listening posts. velopment 'laboratories supply it with the latest and However, the United States wants to keep its exact best in photographic and electronics recording equip­ electronic capabilities and 'agent locations a secret, to ment. It is the primary user of the centralized photo­ 'prevent them from being countered. graphic intetpretation unit in Washington. It has a , Seismographs finesse the problems to some ex- library system that receives, catalogues, and makes

11 available for instantaneous retrieval well over two it does occur, we shall know about it and will make the million documents annually. Through successes and information public." Whether the Chinese explosion failures alike, the CIA has recruited and retained an was detected by u.S. seismologists, and, if so, how educated, dedicated staff with specialists in astrophy­ accurate the seismographs were is unknown. The prep­ sics, Mea culture, and everything in between. arations and explosion had been monitored from aerial In 1960 the U-2 incident alerted the American and satellite reconnaissance. Electronic eavesdropping public to the new techniques. It was a triumph of the gave the U.S. full information. Air samples, gathered methodology, with mass-production intelligence from and analyzed by various information gathering agencies aerial reconnaissance and exacting analysis, but it was revealed the bomb's construction and composition. The submerged by the diplomatic and political conse­ explosion had been physically obvious, and the United quences. Then came the Bay of Pigs, an "operation" States had surrounded it. planned and directed until the last moment by the Both the missile crisis and the monitoring of the CIA in the old tradition of agents, subversion, and first Chinese detonation were considered as triumphs espionage. It failed miserably, partly because of faulty of American intelligence. One was public, the other intelligence, partly because of a failure of leadership, semi-classified. They were radically different in one and partly because it was just too ambitious. The influ­ respect: the 1962 crisis involved knowing things which ence of the CIA dropped. Its administration was re­ were not physically obvious. Had the Russians decided shuffled, and the intelligence division fell under the to ship in missiles? If so, what kind? What other same cloud as the "plans", or operation, side. The equipment was being brought in? Could Cuban anti­ Cuban Missile Crisis, just before the 1962 elections, aircraft fire bring down a U-2? Would Khrushchev provided the next public viewing of the new intelli­ back down without demanding a face-saving exchange gence technologies. of withdrawal of United States missiles in Turkey? CONSULTING CRATOLOGISTS What were the full terms of the Castro-Khrushchev agreement? What was the degree of commitment in Aerial reconnaissance, using both the U -2 and high-speed, low-level aircraft, produced pictures of the Soviet hierarchy to the program? Would the U-2 ships unloading mysterious cargo. Forested areas were incident in China on September 9, 1962, have reper­ cussions in Cuba? What was the relationship of Cuba observed undergoing radical changes. Photographic to the Sino-Soviet conflict? Of both to Berlin? Ques­ interpreters found evidence of surface-to-air anti-air­ craft missile emplacements. The CIA staff people who tions of judgment and intention were involved. Things had as their specialty knowledge of crates - where that were not physically obvious had to be learned. they are made, what they usually or sometimes carry, THE PHYSICALLY OBVIOUS which governmental agency usually or sometimes uses them - spent hours examining photographs of crates By contrast there Vias no doubt about Chinese in­ being unloaded from or reloaded on Soviet ships before tentions. They would test a fission explosive. The lo­ deciding that they could be carrying missiles. Analysis cation was known well in advance. The intelligence of message traffic and breaking the messages them­ mission was straightforward: monitor every piece of selves by the NSA added weight to the analysis. The information pertinent to the event. Photograph it, full impact of the way science and technology were tape record it, listen to comments about it. The task used by the CIA came in early 1963, when, in a two­ was to learn things that were physically obvious, or hour public briefing by Secretary of Defense Mac­ which would become physically obvious when the test Namara, 65 slides of aerial photographs were pro­ was conducted. jected on a 20-foot screen. Many of the slides were The intelligence community approached both in color. They revealed every stage of the missile problems the same· way: aerial reconnaissance, elec­ buildup and withdrawal. The CIA in particular and tronic surveillance, and analyses by experts in the ap­ intelligence agencies in general were applauded for propriate fields. There were apparently no agents of their efforts. Intense domestic. sniping and political importance in Cuba or at the Chinese test site at Lop dissent by Senators Keating and Goldwater was abated. Nor. What agents were unavailable to do, the new In late 1964, during another American election methodology had to substitute for. At Lop Nor the campaign ( and one day after Nikita Khrushchev's new methodology worked very well. In Cuba, it did removal from office) China exploded her first nuclear not. Aerial photography was hindered by a heavy weapon. The test had been anticipated for years in cloud cover during initial missile site preparation. So­ public statements by Chinese and scientific experts. viet transports brought new sealed cargoes to Cuban Actual preparations in western Sinkiang had been un­ ports each day. Cratologists divined which ships car­ der continuous overhead surveillance. Seventeen days ried missiles, but subsequent crises may feature camou­ earlier, Secretary of State Dean Rusk had issued a flaged crates, or may call for specialities which do not statement warning of the soon-to-occur test, saying "If exist. Rumors, refugee reports, shipping and diplo-

12 matic sources, low-level agents and public statements agents of any importance within the U.S.S.R. it must were a cacophony of noise that masked the signals. be assumed, therefore, that important American agents CIA analysts did an excellent job, but the United who do exist have been recruited since then. Twenty States did not even have an agent in Cuba capable of years is ample time for a career agent to have been contributing hardware confirmation, much less a full discovered and his story made public. None have report of the plans and decisions made at the highest been, while Soviet career agents turn up with some level. The new methodology was unable to see clearly, regularity in all the NATO nations. and the crisis nearly got out of hand. HOW MANY SPIES? Agents and the New Methodology The public record of American use of career The United States does maintain agent networks, agents encourages a tentative assumption that such per­ possibly very extensive ones. However, they only sons do not exist in high level jobs in Communist na­ reach public attention through obsolesence, rarely by tions. The alternative assumption is that they do, but agent memoirs and usually by arrest and trial. In the by a combination of skill, endurance, and fortune, recent past there have been exposures claimed, all none have surfaced or been surfaced. If this is so, over the world of relatively low-level agents. A CIA agents may occupy relatively non-sensitive posi­ more uncertain way of detecting American networks is tions where they are less likely to undergo routine by watching for accounts of defectors to the United security checks. That means they are less valuable as States. Defections sometimes result from extensive consistent sources of information than the technologi­ recruiting by U.S. agent networks, sometimes are un­ cal disciplines of the new methodology. This point planned, and sometimes signal the end of a double is made by Roger Hilsman in To MOI'e A Nation after agent's useful career to the CIA. Defectors seem to he served Kennedy first as Director of the Bureau of be the CIA's primary source of highly placed agent Intelligence and Research in the State Department, information. There is no publicly available evidence later as Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern that skilled American penetration agents are lodged in Affairs. Whether the situation has changed since he other governments. Defectors are the next-best ob· wrote his book is, given the long lead time required jective, and the CIA goes to great lengths to encour­ to train and place agents, doubtful. A start might age them. have been made, but both American tradition and the NOTORIOUS DEFECTORS long gestation period for top penetration agents argues against it. On February 4, 1969, a ranking Chinese intelli­ gence officer defected from his post at the Hague. In As a conseql

13 the like? Even within the Defense Department, there person? Invocations such as "the national security re­ will be critical decisions. A third generation recon­ quires," could be expected to open many files, especial­ naissance aircraft? or a nuclear powered naval fleet? ly when it is so easy. (For increasing numbers of Five more specialists on South Africa or five more personnel files kept by state and federal agencies, senior staff positions in the U.S. Army Missile Com­ universities and corporations, the social security num­ mand? ber is the key that unlocks the data kept on the com­ puter system). The data bank problem is one of many CLUES AND GADGETRY that needs legislation to protect the individual. A constraint affecting intelligence accuracy and reliability is the limited ability of the new methodology A LATENT THREAT to obtain intangible data on plans and intentions. An individual has a legitimate concern about his Agency research requires physical clues to derive such own "file" as well as the overall operation of his na­ knowledge. The clues are pictures, intercepted mes­ tion's intelligence apparatus. Public knowledge of the sages, and news media arti:::les. This puts a severe res­ sl/bstallce of intelligence must, by definition, remain traint on the intelligence community whenever infor­ nil. But public confidence as to procedul'es followed mation is needed that has left no such traces. For simply does not exist- unless one is willing to example: given that Soviet troops are massed on the accept blindly assurances of the purity of the system. Czech border, are they are are they not going to in­ Faith is required because the accountability process is vade? Given the knowledge of what has occurred in as secretive as the substance. Some public review pro­ the Middle East, will Israel launch a pre-emptive war? cess should be devised to correct abuses by the agencies Given the schedules, armaments, and operating charac­ of their intended responsibilities. Autonomous, anon­ teristics of Navy ferret ships and North Korean gun­ ymous bureaucrades, with relatively unlimited finances boats, will North Korea attempt to capture an intelli­ and an awesome capability to learn closely guarded gence patrol? Decisions can only be reported by an secrets are always a latent threat to an open society. agent who is present when they are made, or by a The rise of spill-over to the private lives of individu­ microphone planted by an agent with prior access to als must be answered with some independent, public the decision locale. The agencies far too often place balandng processes. all their faith in expensive gadgetry, banking on the hope that most decisions will eventually leave enough Another problem is the vast amount of data no clues to identify themselves. The agencies seem to longer necessary to current intelligence activities. An annual review of the requirements for classification have resigned themselves to the fact that when agents do not exist, the new methodology must be forced to should be started, with another annual review to fill the need. A regular review of the limits of the measure file data against the requirements, releasing that which has become inert. methodology should be instituted. The third limitation is history. As bureaucracies Within the United States, intelligence operations mature, more middle-management positions are filled and agencies have had major impact on social, econom­ by career agency personnel. Lacking the independent ic, legal and technical developments. This impact has prior experience ( as newsmen, attorneys, research been obscured by the secrecy of operations, the public scientists) they tend to preserve the status quo, use distaste for spies and spying, and the attitude of aca­ novel approaches only rarely and adopt an "image" or demia that open studies of espionage and intelligence style. The practice of recruiting directly from graduate are improper. Far less attention has been paid to the and professional schools and creating formal manage­ consequences of this multi-billion dollar industry than ment intern programs has the same weaknesses. The is warranted. bureaucratic organization jells into 11 pattern of narrow - ROBERT D. CRANGLE histories and commonality of philosophy. (This is even more insidiOl,ls than conformity to the famous Peter Principle.) The New Methodology and the Indit'idual This article was abstl'acted fl'0111 a paper, © 1969 The intelligence agencies wield a great deal of by Robert D. Cl'angle. Numerous footnotes have been power and influence, sometimes directly, but more omitted. Bibliography available on request. The se­ often obliquely, on politics, economics, government, riollS researcher is addsed to first obtain a partially industry, universities, law and the individual Ameri­ annotated bibliogl'aphy written by William R. Harris can. The extent of this influence is very poorly docu­ (Intelligence and National Security Bibliography and mented. For instance, since 1966 the Army assembled .Selected Annotations, Harvard Center for International computerized files on many U. S. citizens. Can intelli­ Affairs, Cambridge, 1968). gence agencies obtain a complete data file on any given

14 Did you give Agnew an F?

Year After Poll Results Although the results of the poll which the actIy comparable with a similar poll run in January of FORUM ran last November were generally of the 1~6f!, but a few times in that section of this year's "dog bites man" variety, certain noteworthy fillips did poll are worth reporting independently here. First, occur: even among Nixon voters the percentage who think ~'Fully 100'/r of those who voted for Nixon for that the President has extensive knowledge of and ;l President believe he will be both renominated well-defined position on the war in Vietnam is low - and reelected; only 66j'; and n~~ indicated the opposite - that the .. And, of those who did 110/ vote for him, ~y;( President has 110 clear-cut position on the war in Viet­ believe Ni~on will be renominated and 76(;~ nam. Only 50',:; of his '6R supporters believe he is a believe he will be reelected. capable manager of the economy. Thirty-two per cent .. As for the Vice-President, 14(~ of Nixon voters feel he does not understand the problems of the cities; give Mr. Agnew an A or better and nJ; gi\'e .'>0';' feel that his Administration has further alienated him an F or worse. Altogether, those who voted the Negro from the mainstream of American life; and for him now give Agnew an average grade of C. 51'/r feel that Mr. Nixon does not have the confidence "Those who did 110/ vote for Agnew flunk him of youth. Only 1Yk, however, see the conduct of his unequivo:::ally (64'/r F's or \\:orse). Administration as handicapping other Republicans "Both Nixon supporters and non-supporters give running for office. John Mitchell the lowest rating of the Cabinet Among Nixon's non-supporters the results are members, bl>t while he gets a C- from Nixon pretty much that William F. Buckley would predict of supporters, those who did not vote for Nixon the Society: ~o'/r see the President as lacking the flunk the Attorney General with an F+. confidence of youth; 88'/r see him as having alienated On the ten most important issues a surprising further the Negro. 71'/r challenge his understanding agreement emerged between the two groups. Of the of the problems of the cities, and 55'/r view his Ad­ top ten issues, nine were identical. The difference was ministration as a handicap to other aspiring GOP of­ that Nixon supporters ranked his Latin American fice- holders. policy the tenth most important issue of the thirty listed. In the non-supporters' Top Ten, the President's FUTURE And as anyone, including handling of the Vietnam Moratorium demonstrations LEADERS Mr. Buckley, could have appeared at the eighth spot. (See the accompanying forecast, Mayor John Lindsay remains Ripon's favorite tables. ) Although the poll respondents were in gen­ son: 14'/r of Nixon's supporters look to Lindsay for eral agreement as to what was important, individual national leadership in the '70s; twice that percentage appraisals varied on the expected ideological grounds. of Nixon non-supporters express the same hope. As a group, those who did not support Nixon in 1968 Among the Administration's 1968 friends, Nixon showed a greater sense of urgency about their top is­ ranks a close second at n'/r, followed by HEW Sec­ sues, with their interest dropping off noticeably after retary Robert Finch (14 'ir) and Illinois Senator their sixth issue, the SALT talks. The ' 6R Nixon Charles Percy (11 '/r ). Among the others, the view voters were less intense in their issue concern and shifts to Maine's Senator Edmund Muskie (21 ~( ), their interest dropped off after their fourth issue, tax Senator Percy (11~!(), and Mass. Senator Edward reform. Brooke ( 1 O('~ ). In their appraisals of the rest of the Cabinet All the results in both the text and the tables (omitting Mitchell), the two groups agreed quite should be read as merely suggestive. Mr. Nixon's closely, a mildly surprising result. The Nixon sup­ postal reform has yet to go through and. not unrelated­ porters gave their top grades (B' s) to Finch, Laird, Iy. these inferences are based on a r;lther small Rogers, and Shultz; the 1968 deserters also gave Finch sample. Little more than Y ( of the polls were re­ a B, and gave a B-- to both Rogers and Shultz. The turned in time to be tabulated (the industry a\'erage average difference in grades was just one notch higher is around 10j'r- on a mailed ballot). One trend does for the party loyalists. seem clear: despite wide-ranging grousing, most mem­ The se:::tion of the poll bers of the Republican Party's left wing see se\'en LOW ON VIETNAM which dealt with Nixon's more years of a Nixon Presidency. image contained two errors which rendered it not ex- R.B.E., Jr. 15 Nixon Supporters in 1968 Nixon Non-Supporters in 1968

Rate Nixon's overall performance as President so far. Rate Nixon's overall performance as President so far. Excellent 20% Good 48% Excellent 0% Good 12 % Average 22% Fair 8% Average 33!fo Fair 38% Poor 2% Poor 17% THE TOP TEN ISSUES THE TOP TEN ISSUES Ave. Ave. Ave. Ave. Grade Grade Grade Grade 1 the Vietnam war C 7 Middle East 1 the Vietnam war B- 7 Middle East 2 welfare reform B­ situation C 2 welfare reform B situation B+ 3 ABM fight D 8 the Vietnam 3 halting inflation B- 8 law and order B+ 4 tax reform moratorium D- 4 tax reform c­ B- 9 ABM fight C 5 halting inflation 9 law and order D+ 5 SALT talks c­ B+ 10 Latin America 6 SALT talks B- 10 minority enterprise/ 6 minority policy B black capitalism D- enterprise/black The Cabinet· capitalism c- A B C D F Ave. Grade The Cabinet· Blount 7% 14% 40% 10% 0% C+ A B C D F Ave. Grade Finch 29' 40 , 19 2 4 B Blount 8' ) 36% 38% 6% 4% c+ Hardin 0' 17' 40' 10 0' C Finch 52 26 10 4' 6' B Hickel 0' 29' 29 24 10' C Hardin 12 30 34 2 6 c+ Kennedy 0 19 ,43 17 10 C+ Hickel 16 40 22 10 6 B- Laird 4' 29' 33 . 17 14' C Kennedy 12 32 36 10 2 c+ Mitchell 2 10 , 4 10 79 F+ Laird 28 42 16 6' 4 .B Rogers 19 39 31 4 2 B- Mitchell 16 12 16 22 30 c- Romney 2 60 26 10 2 C+ Rogers 32 42' 12 4' 6 B Shultz 17 33 24 2 4 B- Romney 16 50 26 0 2 B- Stans 2 12 33 19 7 C- 18 . Shultz 34 36' 0' 2' B Volpe 0' 14' 38' 24' 19' D+ Stans 4 34 38 10 4 c+ The Vice President· Volpe 8 26 50 6 4' c+ The Vice President· Agnew 0% 2% 10% 19% 64% F+ Agnew 14% 24% 14% 22% 22% c If he continues as he has, will the President be If he continues as he has, will the President be renominated? No renominated? Yes 93% 7% Yes 100% Leaving aside the many "ifs" and giving just a "gut" reaction, do you think Nixon will be reelected? Leaving aside the many "ifs" and giving just a No 24% "gut" reaction, do you think Nixon will be reelected? Yes 76% Yes 100% Of the national leaders of either party, which one do you personally view as the man most worthy Of the national leaders of either party, which one do of your enthusiasm and support? you personally view as the man most worthy of your enthusiasm and support? Lindsay 48%·· deaver· 2% Muskie 21 % Goodell 2 % Lindsay 24% •• Agnew 4% Percy 12% Hughes 2% Nixon 22% Laird 4% Brooke 10% Humphrey 2% Finch 14% Rumsfeld 4% Hatfield 7% Mansfield 2% Percy 12 % Scott 4 % Scott 7% McCarthy 2 % Hatfield 8% Baker 2% Baker 4% McCloskey 2% Muskie 8% Brooke 2% Finch 4% McGovern 2% Reagan 8 % Mitchell 2 % Rumsfeld 4% Rockefeller 2% Rockefeller 8% Richardson 2% Agnew 2% Wallace 2% .These figures are the percent of ballots which gave the particular grade. Since not every ballot graded • • Some ballots listed more than one "first" choice. In every Cabinet member, percentages do not always such instances, each man named was given a vote; consequently, the percentages add to more than 100. add to 100.

16 BOOKS: Modelling the Life of a City I Computer Simulation and Urban Behavior city - three classes of population (underemployed, Urban Dynamics, by Jay Forrester, MIT Press, Cam­ labor, and management), three types of housing (one bridge, Mass., 1969, 285 pages, $12.50. for. each of the populati~n classes), and three types of IOdustry (new enterprIses, mature businesses, and declining industries). The changes over time of these Urbtt1z Dylzamics is about a computer simulation basic activities, or "level variables," is controlled by one model of how the central city first grows, then stagnates or more "rate variables." The twenty-two rate varia­ and decays. The primary authors of the clear text (but bles are functions of behavioral characteristics, exogen­ somewhat less lucid multi-dimensional graphs and equa­ ously set policies, and the level variables, i.e., of the tions) are Prof. Jay Forrester, a computer scientist state of the city as it is perceived.. (The specific inter­ turned industrial analyst, and an IBM 360/67 computer. actions are too numerous to review here, but are The book clearly, reinforces those crying for a more clearly d~rib~ in the appendix to systematic approach to the urban crisis. It shows how Urban Dynamics.) The specification of the level and rate variables and urban problems such as housing shortages or unemploy­ the functions determining the rate variables comprises ment are generated by internal forces, and cannot be a co~plete self-contained model of the city which is solved by simply treating external symptoms. However, fed IOto the computer. By specifying the initial con­ the book just as clearly demonstrates the dangers in the ditions in the city and the length of time its growth is naive extension of simulation techniques to the analysis to be observed, one can have the computer simulate of urban behavior. Men who are not familiar with the behavior of the city through any stage of its de­ the new systems they are trying to understand will velopment. oversimplify application of "systems analysis" to the evaluation of urban policies. The Urba11 D)'namics model, which represents a Forrester's main endeavor is the development of a "typical" U. S. central city, was first used to simulate the tool to be used by urban policy makers. The problem in development of the city from small town to decaying making policy dedsions is the high level of uncertainty central city over two hundred and fifty years. With as to what in fact will happen if a specific policy is the mod~1 ."verified:' by its reproduction of the gross implemented. Will it have the direct consequences characteristics of CIty development, Forrester used it which its sponsors claim? For example, will new in­ to test different policies for stimulating the renewal dustry be attracted by special tax incentives? Even of the city. First, such currently popular proposals • if it does, will the policy disturb a balance elsewhere as revenue transfers from the state or federal govern­ and lead to entirely unanticipated secondary effects, for ment to the dty, training programs for the under­ example, the metropolitan sprawl generated by our employed, and construction of low income housing urban highway program. Forrester's basic thesis is were tested and found to be completely inadequate. that the forces which determine the answers to these Eve~ ~ough Forrester himself notes the extremely questions can be isolated and understood one at a preluwnary nature of the model described in Urban time and synthesized into a model of reality, but that Dynamics, both the later chapters of the book and For­ no individual is capable of anticipating the results of rester's oral presentations of his work contain very more than a very few of these forces operating simul­ strong recommendations against virtually all major taneously. The existance of "feedback," where a force urb~n pro~rams in vogue today. According to his an­ causes a result which in turn modifies the original alYSIS, addlOg to the supply of low income housing, force, both within a given simple interaction and as through either direct construction in the central city a coupler between interactions, leads to a level of or through revision of snob zoning in the suburbs has complexity which can only be followed by a computer. the negative effects of increasing the attractiveness of Urban Dynamics represents just such a synthesis the ~ty for ~gration. of more low income people and between a human's ability to simplify and model and of . d~scouragmg new IOdustry by using up land. Job the computer's capacity for dealing with complexity. tralOlOg programs have the undesirable consequences Forrester has constructed a model which contains of stimulating the outflow of trained workers from the what he feels are the major components of the city, ~ttracting low income workers to the city, and sup­ pres~l?g ~ome of the natural mechanisms for upward James Hester is a Ph.D. candidate in the Depart­ mobility 10 the labor force. Direct revenue transfers from either the state or federal government for im­ ment of Urban Studies and Planning at MIT, and a proving basic services, e.g. education health facili- fellow of the MIT-Harvard Joint Center for Urban ties,. or welfare, or for allowing the city' to reduce the Studies. He has a BS and MS degree from the Depart­ tax burden on its residents and industries are similarly ment of Aeronautics and Astronautics at MIT and has project~d as resul~ng in no signiticant improvements held research positions with NASA, Ford Motor Com­ 10 the CIty. According to the model, these programs will pany, AVCO Everett Research Lab and MIT's Urban at ~t have negligible effects on the ills they are at­ Systems Laboratory. tempting to correct - some of them would even make the situation worse. Such attempts to change the city

17 merel~ set in motion a complex set of readjustments, for both industrial growth and population migration offsetttng the external interventions. strongly contradict existing theories, and not one shred Forrester was not surprised by these results and of empirical evidence is offered to support his divergent devotes a chapter to a description of the behavior of formulation. In addition, the model has the central complex dynamic systems like the city, with particular city rea~hing equilibrium after two hundred and fifty emphasis on their "counter-intuitive behavior." If some­ years WIth a twenty five percent excess of housing for thing is wrong, e.g. too little housing is available, often the . underemploy~ (low income) population. In the least effective way of correcting the situation is to reality the central CIty has a particularly acute housing take the direct approach, ie, build more housing. The shortage for this income class. More importandy, the problem aros~ for a reason, and if the symptoms of fact that the model reaches an equilibrium contradicts problem are attacked without correcting the generating any experience to date. causes, the system simply adjusts, reproducing the ori­ The evaluation "techniques" which Forrester uses ginal situation - if not a worse one. Leverage points to c~mpare alternative polices are the weakest aspect which will produce different behavior do exist, but they of hiS work because they are non-existent. First, he can be found only by understanding the system as a studics only a very limited set of alternatives seem­ w~ole, w~ich ~or c~mplex systems like the city re­ i?gly selected at ran~om, with .no attempt at S;Stema­ qUItes USlOg sUDulatlOn models. In the concluding tlc coverage of possible comb1Dations. Second, even chapters, Forrester manipulates the Urban Dynamics though each of the policies tested infiuences a number model in this way and concludes that the most effec­ of different characteristics of the city - housing sup­ tive policy would be a combination of a gradual slum ply and, demand, unemployment, tax rate, industrial demolition with incentives for certain types of industry. ~rowth, etc. - ~d the effects vary significandy over Forrester has produced an intriguing and certainly tlme, no attempt IS made to formally compare the re­ controversial book - but what is its significance? sults. Indeed, Forrester simply describes the effects of Three aspects of Forrester's work stand out: his ap­ a given policy, lumps them together in some intuitive proach to modeling the city, the details of his specific wa~, and pronounces the judgment that the policy is model, and the manner in which he evaluates alter­ desltabl~ ~~ undesirable. No consideration is given to native policies. Forrester's general approach is by far the poSSibility that a small or moderate gain in one pro­ the major contribution. The scope of his model and blem area might more than offset "losses" in another or the range of interactions contained in it make U rball that short term gains might be desirable, even at 'the Dynamics the first full-scale attempt to model the price of long term loss. In short, he never identifies urban system as a whole. No model either can or or justifies the criteria used to compare the effects of should attempt to include everything, but a model of diff~~t policies? and never ~akes explicit the very any system must include the major components of the subjective value Judgments cruCial to his evaluations. system and their most significant interactions. The Urban Dynamics exemplifies the potential contri­ previous work in urban modeling has taken a piecemeal butions of systems simulation models in attacking the approach - isolating one set of urban activities or in­ urban crisis. They provide a previously non-existent teractions and concentrating on them. Though this has laboratory for the design and testing of social policy. been necessary and useful in the past, it is time to begin They can and should be as invaluable an aid in solving assembling the pieces in order to understand how the social and environmental problems as they have been city functions as a complete system. A second charac­ in engineering and the physical sciences. However, the teristic, derived in part from the first, is the ability shortcomings of the specific model which Forrester has of the model to explicidy incorporate a wide range of results eliminate any of the significance of the con­ alternative policies and test their effects. Too many clusions Urban Dynamics presents on urban policy. previous urban models have been unable to incorporate The limitations of the model and its results are noted any policy changes whatsoever, while others can test several times in the book, but these qualifications are only a very limited set of policies. In demonstrating deeply buried and quickly lost among the strong and models which easily and quickly can answer questions controversial policy recommendations which follow about a variety of issues, Forrester has paved the way them. In fact, Urban Dynamics has already been used for the much broader use of models in making social as a justification for attacking some existing urban policy decisions. A final pleasing aspect of Forrester's programs. . approach is his willingness to take the time and effort The inadequacies of Urban Dynamics make it an to fashion a fairly sophisticated model in a form acces­ excellent example of the dangers as well as the bene­ sible and intelligible to those who might have occasion fits inherent in the extension of systems analysis to to use it. social problems: it requires both extrapolation of in­ Forrester's modeling approach is useful in many adequate behavioral theories and assumptions about ways, but this does not correct the basic fiaws which subjective values. Like any other tool, computer simu­ exist in the specific model which he has constructed. lation models can be poorly designed and inadequate The Urban Dynamics model is lacking - the chief gaps for the job they were meant to perform. Even if pro­ include the failure to include the effect of the suburbs perly designed, they can be misused. The intimidating on the development of the central city, of regional and ~ombination of confident technician and mystical mM national economic development on the industrial computer cannot be allowed to mask these dangers growth of the city, or of technological change on inter­ when they are realized. nal shifts within the city. Also Forrester's mechanisms - JAMES HESTER, JR.

18 A New Departure in Foreign Aid The Reprivatization of Rural Development Massive government programs for agriculture at per acre, in the past three growing seasons, and their home and abroad have conditioned Americans to think net incomes have effectively tripled. All this has come that this is the only approach to the worldwide prob­ about because Heujotitan, in the state of Jalisco, is lem of hunger. Yet daily we read testimony of the the site of a feasibility study, testing the effectiveness Government's inability to feed the American poor, of a model agricultural development corporation. and we learn that neither the United Nations nor the FOR SMALL The program, originated various agencies of the Department of State are mak­ FARMERS directed by Dr. Simon Wil­ ing the expected progress abroad. liams, is financed by the U.S. Agency for Inter­ At the same time, public and congressional toler­ national Development and is being carried out by the ance of vast American foreign aid expenditures ap­ International Marketing Institute of Cambridge, Mass. pears to have reached its limit. "For the last several Its purpose is to test a new form of service corpor­ years, the dissatisfaction of most Committee members ation designed to increase both the income and the with the foreign aid program has increased," the nutrition level of small farmers. Three years of In­ Senate Foreign Relations Committee reported last vestigation are almost complete. December. "The initial focus this year in the Com­ The program faced a difficult task when its re­ mittee discussions of foreign aid was not the size or presentative came to the village three years ago. The makeup of an aid bill, but whether there should be farmers - with average holdings of about eight hec­ an aid bill at all." And as it turned out, there tares (20 acres) of rainfed lands, about one-half wasn't; Congress authorized outlays of less than planted in corn - seldom had gross annual incomes $2 billion for 1970 and 1971 - the lowest authoriza­ of more than $200. Because of a vicious circle of tions in the history of foreign aid - but failed to debt and poverty, they were unable to adopt innova­ reach agreement on an appropriation bill, so that ap­ tions that were available in the market, like chemical propriations were finally continued at 1969 levels. fertilizer. A RISKY Meanwhile, private inves- One factor limiting ~uch innovation was expen­ VENTURE tors with experience in sive credit. Subsequent studies have further shown foreign agriculture indicate that the benefits hardly that the risk of failure was too high and profit margins equal the frustrations, risks, and uncertainties of such were too narrow for the farmers to use new inputs. ventures. And the leaders of the developing new na­ For instance, the fertilizer might not be absorbed, if tions can demonstrate that such investment has been rainfall was below normal; or instructions for ap­ a one-way street since colonial times - profiting only plying it might be misunderstood, or in error, and the the foreign buyer, if anyone. Recent foreign aid measures have not appealed· to the private enterprise sympathies of many con­ gressmen, and have not sought to utilize American capital, management ability, and technology in the most efficient way. However, an experiment in a central Mexico village called Heujotitan is showing how an agricultural development corporation, an es­ sentially private operation, provides a convenient and acceptable vehicle for achieving both business and social goals. It suggests an entirely new approach in American aid to third-world agriculture. In the valley of Heujotitan, some villagers have grown corn twice as high as that of their neighbors. Their yields have quadrupled, to nearly 80 bushels

THE AUTHOR Dr. John Simmo11S is a research fellow at Hal'l'ard's Center for Middle Eastern Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Oxford and has done field work in Mexico, Tunisia, Ghana and the Middle East.

19 crop burned out from overdosage. In such a case, In short, the benefits to the farmer are both im­ if the farmer did not realize the added income ne­ mediate and continued. First, and most dramatically, cessary to pay for the fertilizer, his profit after the they will achieve at a minimum an immediate doubl­ harvest would be even lower than normal. The indi­ ing of their net income due to high yields and better vidual small farmer simply could not take such a prices, plus sustained annual increases of from 10 chan::e. to 20 percent. Second, by the fourth year of the cor­ MULTISERVICE The solution proposed for poration's operation, the farmers will begin to receive CORPORATION this dilemma was a multi­ cash dividends proportionate to the amount of corn service corporation, which would act as retailer, buyer, they sell to the corporation. Based on the average banker, and adviser to the valley farmers. The cor­ farm size and conditions, the first dividends will be poration, which was formed in late 1969, sells sup­ S18; by the 12th year of the corporation's existence, plies to the farmers at market prices and provides they will reach $91, and by the 20th year, $200. credit for these purchases, as well as for social needs, Third, payments by the corporation into a trust fund until the harvest. The farmer also receives direction will ensure that at the end of 20 years, the farmers from one of the technicians who live in the village will become the owners of the corporation; the paid-in during the season. equity of S460,000 will have been repaid by the trust. In return, the farmer is under contract to sell And fourth, by the time the farmers take control of his corn to the corporation, which offers the attrac­ the corporation, retained earnings will have reached tive price of $64 per metric ton - a 4 percent pre­ $724,000. mium over the usual village price, and without the VERY GOOD But the development cor- usual transportation costs. The price for corn in INVESTMENT poration also offers benefits Guadalajara, 20 miles away on a good road, averages to the potential investor, whether foreign or domestic. more than $72 per ton at harvest time, but the in­ Mter allowing for the farmer benefits mentioned dividual farmer lacks transport to take advantage of above, the return will still reach 25 percent of equity this price. This the development corporation provides; annually after the fourth year of operation; net an­ and the difference between village and town price is a nual income of the corporation will average about 50 major source of its income. A corporation to take ad­ percent of equity after the third year. vantage of this simple economic equation required just But the benefits at the national level to a coun­ $460,000 in paid-in equity; yet it will produce bene­ try like Mexico will probably be the most impressive fits for the initial investors, the immediate area, and results of the formation of agricultural development the country as a whole. . corporations. Mexico had its agrarian reform more But what will these services and income mean than 50 years ago. Since then, the government has for the average farmer? He now grows four tons of expanded credit, built schools, developed extension corn on the half of his eight hectares that he plants, services, and marketed farm supplies - the usual while the other half lies fallow or is used for pasture; pattern for agricultural development. And while Mex­ his current gross income is about $280 from corn and ican agriculture has registered some striking gains, $105 from other sources. If he keeps four hectares in largely because of seed improvement, the small farmer corn under the program, his net income from corn - as elsewhere - has been bypassed. alone will increase to $640 a year, a 130 percent in­ FURTHER The development corpora- crease. And if he chooses to put as much as eight APPLICATIONS tion's appeal in Mexico and hectares in corn, his net income will rise to $1,280, other nations with largely rural populations is mani­ an increase of 360 percent. fold. First, the corporation's ability to improve living TO END Besides this incentive for conditions for small farmers attacks Mexico's prime THE AGONY farmers to join the contract political problem- rural unrest ~d agitation. Sec­ system offered by the corporation, there are other ond, the corporation supplies valuable technical assis­ attractions: the corporation can help the farmer re­ tance without requiring government funding - from duce his outstanding debt, as well as provide short­ either Mexico or the U.S. Third, the corporation is term personal loans. Within three years, the farmers staffed by Mexicans, and the land that is its maJor of the valley will be free of their long-term debts, resource is owned by Mexicans; fiscal control, initially which now average $360 (with interest at 4 percent foreign, will be turned over to the eventual client­ per month). owners. Corn production and marketing, moreover, will Fourth, the attractive return on equity will en­ not remain the sole interest of the corporation. It courage future investment by the Mexican private sec­ will also encourage diversification into swine and tor in a national development priority, rather than in dairy operations, which will represent 20 percent of urban real estate or foreign stocks. Fifth, the corpor­ the corporation's net income after eight years of ation will mean progress in improving the quality operation. and diversity of Mexican farm products; meat and

20 milk proJuc~ion arc among the highest government GARBER GETS Then, late in 1968, word priorities. Sixth, as has been shown in village im­ TH E AXE got out that Bill Dane, provement work in Peru, raising rural incomes can director of the Highway Commission, might have prof­ dramatically limit urban migration. And seventh, ited from some state right-of-way purchases from his shifting a part of the administrative and financial bur­ brother-in-law. There was no direct or indirect con­ den of rural development from the governmental and nection made between Garber and Dane. Next, some national level to the private and local level - repriva­ Democrats raised the point that Garber, while chair­ tization, as it were - will bring important economies man of the Highway Commission, had raised funds in the use of Mexico's resources. for the Republican party. (Garber had served as Nix­ GUARANTEED The results of this three- on's campaign manager in Oklahoma in 1968.) Bart­ SUCCESS STORY year program in Heujotitan lett seemed surprised at this "disclosure," and summar­ have been so encouraging that a group of American ily fired Garber - whose term had only a few days to investors and manufacturers, led by one of America's run, in any event - for not living up to the "high largest banks, has met to consider the program's ideals of my admirtistration." significance and the possibility of forming an organi­ Garber was shor.Ked - understandably, because zation devoted to investing in similar rural develop­ his fund raising activities were well known to every­ ment projects throughout Latin American. The thor­ one. In fact, it developed that one of the candidates oughness with which this new form of corporation Garber has raised funds for was the Governor himself. is being tested and the substantial benefits it offers Even the Democrats in the legislature, who investi­ to farmers, investors, and the nation as a whole should gated the matter, quite frankly pointed out in their guarantee its success. Presumably, the development report that there was nothing illegal about a Highway corporation form could be expanded to cover a larger Commissioner's raising campaign funds; they cleared area or operation; it will also be tested, and modified Garber of any wrongdoing. if necessary, for countries whose problems are more The Garber dispute still rankles, and it threatens acute than Mexico's. the Governor's chances for re-election. In order for a The foreign aid authorization bill passed by Con­ Republican to be elected Governor in Oklahoma, he gress last December included provision for a new must win a substantial plurality, perhaps as mu~h as Overseas Private Investment Corporation, a semiauto­ 50,000, in the northwestern part of the state - north nomous agency designed to stimulate private invest­ of Oklahoma Gty and west of Tulsa. The key county ment in the developing nations by insuring and guar­ in this area is Garfield, which coincidentally is the anteeing loans, making some loans directly, and offer­ home of Martin Garber. The ex-commissioner has ing technical assistance to private enterprises. Crea­ many friends throughout this area, and his father once tion of the agency, sought by the Administration, was represented the district in Congress. Furthermore, pushed by a long-time advocate of the idea, Senator Garber's brother, Milt, is editor of the area's largest Jaco!J K. Javits of New York. The measure - if tied newspaper. In 1966, Governor Bartlett received about to programs like the Heujotitan development corpor­ 70 percent of the vote in Garfield County. As things ation - could mark a new departure in foreign aid. stand today, he would be lucky to carry the county. -IOHN SIMMONS OTHER PEEVISH In addition to the dispute DISPUTES with Garber, the Governor Oklahoma -from page 6 also occasionally squared off against the peevish Lieu­ more confidence and decisiveness. But he still makes tenant Governor, George Nigh, usually over Nigh's political blunders, and big ones at that. Chief among efforts to increase his own importance. Bartlett prob­ these ~as the abrupt firing of Martin Garber, chair­ ably came out ahead in this match, however, and an man of the Oklahoma Highway Commission. uneasy truce now exists between the two officials. It is still hard for the Governor's most dedicated As noted earlier, all three Democratic guberna­ admirers to interpret his actions in what is still referred torial contenders appeal to young and middle-aged to as the "Garber Affair". Garber was, and is, a pro­ urban moderates - who are, or ought to be, a prime fessional politician and fund raiser par excellence. target for a progressive Republican candidate. Greve, Appointed chairman of the Highway Commission by at least, might be able to add to this base of votes Republican Governor Henry Bellmon, Bartlett's pre­ the minorities, the poor, and the rural and welfare decessor, Garber directed the 1966 primary campaign bloc. Against this coalition, Bartlett may need more of John N. "Happy" Camp, whom Bartlett defeated than great clouds of energy and dozens of new indus­ for the gubernatorial nomination. In the interests of tries to pull him through. But it also remains to be party loyalty, however, Bartlett retained Garber as seen whether Greve, or any other Democrat, can put Highway Commission chairman, a decision that was such a coalition together. generally well received. -STEPHEN IONES 21 Annual Report - /nwn page 24 Political Notes - from page .5 administration in the gro1.ip's experience. In part the It was the beginning of a political year in Florida by question was answered immediately by the appointment during which a Legislature dominated candidates fo; higher office is not expected to raise the needed rev­ of a number of former Ripon officers and members to enue for education, highways, and other priorities and positions in the Administration. In this way, one of a Goyernor preoccupied with his own re-election is not the purposes of the Society, to recruit and train talent ~xpected t~ prod the legislators. Among the hopefuls for Republican political life, was partly fulfilled. In the legISlature are Senate President John Mathews Beyond that, the Society has continued to work and Senate President Pro Tem Reubin Askew, Demo­ for a more inclusive and more responsive Republi­ crats who want to be Goyernor; and House Speaker Fred Schultz and State Senators Robert Haverfield and can party. In so doing, the Society has worked with Lawton Chiles, Democratic contenders for the U. S. and supported the Administration and the party at all Senate seat being vacated by Spessard Holland. levels on programs and policies that are consistent with those goals, such as those which seek to involve mi­ Another State Senator, Republican L A. "Skip" Bafalis of North Palm Beach, has been hinting at ran­ norities. Conversely, when the Administration or the ningagainst Kirk for nearly a year. The GoYernor has party has pursued a course that the Society feels unwise man~ged to alienate nearly every state legislator, Re­ for either the country or the long-term good of the publicans as well Democrats, at one point or another party, it has not hesitated to criticize such action. during the past year, and could be yulnerable. He is Whether the Society will be able to continue its also not very popular with many GOP regulars, though growth and meet these responsibilities depends again he could probably beat any Democrat in the state right this year, as in past years, on its success or failure at now. The GOP primary - which, like the Democratic contest, Will be held in September this year instead of fund-raising. With increased financial support, the May - will also feature a senatorial race between Society can have a significant impact on the 1970 Florida's aboriginal Republican, nine-term U. S. Rep­ campaigns, as well as increase the quality and reader­ rc:sentatiYe William C. Crame.r of St. Petersburg, and ship of its publications and operate a Washington Lieutenant Goyernor Ray Osborne, a Kirk protege of office. - CLAIR W ARR£N RODGERS, JR. sorts.

REVENUE FINANCIAL REPORT ESTIMATED 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Contributions and Dues $15,622 $23,143 $29,300 $ 78,760 $ 90,682 $110,000 FORUM Subscriptions 2,100 5,161 8,978 17,190 14,312 28,000 Publications .'. 2,075 2,257 1,652 4,312 7,261 10,000 Research Services 3,000 7,001 5,400 10,975 12,500 Miscellaneous 631 460 125 8,221 3,444 3,000 -- TOTAL RECEIPTS $20,428 $34,021 $47,056 $113,703 $126,674 $163,500

EXPENDITURES FORUM Printing & Distribution 1,136 4,068 8,784 16,479 17,950 22,000 FORUM Salaries and Materials 3,122 16,068 16,065 26,000 -- TOTAL FORUM $ 1,136 $ 4,068 $11,906 $ 32,547 $ 34,015 $ 48,000 Publications & Research 5,895 4,241 4,855 20,701 15,523 15,000 Press Releases & Communication 1,542 2,192 4,368 1,469 6,000 National Organization & Coordination 1,428 1,675 3,977 1,148 7,000 Fund Raising & Pl'omotion 3,222 3,137 3,493 3,573 3,401 15,000 Attendance at National Meetings & Conferences 841 954 759 2,353 2,640 2,000 Staff Salaries 4,271 9,701 15,582 21,957 32,574 37,000 1,122 1,500 Payments to Cha~ers 1,373 4,230 General Operating Expenses 3,975 5,441 5,908 10,401 25,010 15,000 Special Projects .. 578 1,381 7,307 7,926 17,000 -- TOTAL' EXPENDITURES $19,918 ,$31,893 $47,742 $111,414 $127,047 $163,500

22 14a ELIOT STREET

Ripon activity last month centered on Washington, lining the Jules Witcover story "Nixon Staff Full of D.C. The Seventh Anniversary Dinner was held January Mitchell's 'Delinquents'" The New York Post ran two 17 at the Statler Hilton's Presidential Ballroom. Over editorials on the Ripon-Mitchell exchange; The Minne­ 250 guests gathered to celebrate and to hear Congressman apolis Star reprinted the entire Ripon editOrial plus John B. Anderson (part of his address appears in this cartoon on its editorial page; Newsday syndicated col­ issue). Among those attending were: Congressman Pete umnist Nick Thlmmesch saw it as an example of Nixon's McCloskey and Barber Conable, I. F. Stone, Secretary genius in political balancing that he "listens to and likes of the Army Thaddeus Beal, RNC Assistant Chairman the Ripon bunch while Mitchell swats at them as though Elly Peterson, Mary McGrory, Richard Shields, Assistant they are pesky flies." Secretary of HEW Lewis Butler, Manpower Adminis­ • Dr. John S. Saloma In, one of Ripon's founders and trator, Dept. of Labor Malcolm Lovell, ICC Commissioner its first president, was among the 10 outstanding men of George Stafford, Mitchell Melich, Solicitor, Dept. of the 1969 named by the U. S. Junior Chamber of Commerce. Interior, Tina Harrower, RNC Committeewoman from Jack, now associate professor of political science at MIT Connecticut, John Price, director of the Urban and Rural and heading a study by the Twentieth Century Fund on Affairs Council and many more. U. S. political parties, was honored along with a soclal Ripon received telegrams from others not present activist, a lieutenant governor, a football professional (including the President - see cover). Greetings came and a Rockefeller. The nine other men cited were: Rev. from Senators Goodell, Brooke, Javits, Hatfield, Mathias Jesse L. Jackson, Lt. Governor Ben Barnes of Texas, and RNC Chairman Rogers Morton. Congressman Gale E. Sayers of Chicago, John D. Rockefeller IV of Anderson facetiously relayed special salutations from West Virginia, Melvin Floyd, Dr. David Mathews (presi­ John and Martha. dent of the University of Alabama), James R. Slagle, Special praise is due Pat Goldman, who masterminded Russel L. Voorhees and Dr. Augustus A. White m. Jack the gala to the last detail. joins very distinguished company. Former Jaycees' top 10 include Presidents John F. Kennedy and Richard M . • A National Executive Committee meeting took place Nixon. on the morning of the banquet at the new offices of McCiaughry Associates, 2100 M Street. • Richard A. Zimmer has been elected president of the New York chapter. He replaces J. Eugene Marans who • Below is the complete transcript of the statement of has moved up to the position of Chairman of the Board. the Attorney General to David Schoumacher on the CBS Dick is a graduate of Yale and Yale Law School and Evening News with Roger Mudd, January 17, 1970: was one of the original guiding lights of the New Haven The Ripon Society, a group of liberal RepublIcans, chapter. charged through its magazine this week that Attor­ In its monthly "know your enemy" luncheon, the ney General Mitchell has been playing politics for chapter met in December with WllUam vanden Heavel, President Nixon and hampering and delaying civil Nelson Rockefeller's first announced opponent for Gov­ rights progress. Mitchell was not readily available ernor. Vanden Heuvel stressed the need for new ap­ for comment • . . only he was literally cornered by proaches to government and as an example of this belief CBS news correspondent David Schoumacher. suggested naming Albany Mall after Martin Luther King, Jr. In February the chapter will meet with John Dear S<>houmacher: What about this Ripon Society charge that you have dorff. permitted politics to playa part in your operation • The Cambridge chapter met January 21 with S. Lester • of the Justice Department? Ralph of Somerville. The "New PolItics" Mayor outlined l\I1tchell : his plan to restore the city and rid it of corruption. One As far as those little juvenile delinquents are con­ of his first steps has been to appoint Ripon member cerned . . . I don't have any comment about them. Marls Vlnovslds to a five year term on the Board of Appeals, which handles zoning variances and building ~choumaeher: permits. Is it not true ... Mitchell: • Ripon's artist, David Omar WhIte, will appear in next You must have been a blocking back ... month's Harpers with a devastating cartoon of George Meany. Schournacher: I learned that trying to chase you down . . . it's true •.• though ..• that you have asked the Su­ preme Court on occasion to delay school integration. Is that because of politics? LETTERS Mitchell: Not true at all ... you must understand that the Justice Department are the lawyers for the Govern­ CORRECTION ment. We carry out legal functions on behalf of the Dear Sir: Government and in so acting we are acting on behalf of HEW. We are lawyers, not policy makers. Did Congratulations to William Duncan for his article you ever look at it that way? appearing in the November issue of your magazine. It contains only one or two specific points in regard to • The Mitchell flap brought the TV cameras to the which my two-year experience in Japan might cause me Ripon office. Both the CBS and NBC affiliates in Boston to take issue. The reason for this letter is that the arti­ appeared to interview and film, completely disrupting cle is wholly of Mr. Duncan's creation and my name ought normal office routine. Any of our readers who saw Pat not to have been attached to it, because I had no knowl­ Collins interview NGB member Rep. Martin A. LInsky edge of it, and no opportunity to read the article, in ad­ or Chet Curtis query Ripon President Josiah Lee Auspltz vance of publication. The article in no way reflects the will agree the reports were informative and accurate. SUbstance or language of my preliminary draft submitted In addition, Ripon Political Director Michael Brewer to you this summer. Further, the thrust of Mr. Dun­ appeared on CBS national news, unfortunately at 7 A.M. can's article runs contrary to the central thesis which on January 16. Just a sampling of the press reaction: I had hoped to develop. I wish to dissassoclate myself Ripon was the subject of a column by Mary McGrory in from Mr. Duncan's article without intending to criticize e which the syndicated columnist said, "Ripon is in fact it. to Mr. Nixon what Harvard was to John Kennedy- a talent bank and an idea factory."; The Los Angeles ROBERT C. KIRKWOOD Tlme-s ran the Mitchell reaction on the front page head- San Francisco 23 Outlook for 1970 1969 Annual Report Chapters thus far and immediate steps needed to correct The number of Ripon chapters reached 11 during them. the past year with the admission of new chapters in. In 1969, the FORUM was increasingly used as a Hartford, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., and the vehicle for distribution of Ripon research and analysis. formal establishment of a previously authorized chap­ In addition, political coverage was increased throUgh ter in Boston. Prospects for additional chapters dur­ the use of correspondents in the field. The FORUM ing the coming year are excellent. also ran a number of guest editorials, by (in chr0no­ Publications logical order) Mayor John Lindsay, Senators Gordon The Society's major publication during the last Allott, Robert Griffin, Jacob Javits, Hugh Scott, Mar­ year was its election analysis, The Lessons of Victory, low Cook, Charles Goodell, James Pearson, Robert issued in both hard-bound and paperback by Dial Press. Packwood, and William Saxbe. Termed "shrewd and penetrating" by the New York Paid FORUM circulation rose only slightly dur­ Times Book Review, Lessons was edited by the Soci­ ing 1969, as funding for FORUM promotion proved ety's Research Director and represented the effort of inadequate to mount a sustained campaign to inaease more than 30 major contributors and more than 100 circulation. Despite the rise in circulation, FORUM correspondents. . revenue dropped slightly, reflecting a proportionate net During 1969, a second major book neared com­ increase in the lower-priced student subscriptions. pletion. Written by Michael S. Lottman, the first Ripon Fellow, the book is an updated and expanded Finances version of the Society's 1966 report on the Republican The budget for 1969 again represented an in­ party in the South. crease over that for the pr~ous year, although it fell A Ripon Report to the President on Youth was short of projections made in late 1968. The c0ntrib­ published in October of this year and was prepared utor base broadened slightly and the geographical under the direction of Ripon's National Director, distribution of contributors was widened. Contribu­ Bruce K. Chapman. Agreement has been reached tions as a percentage of total revenue remained ap­ for the publication of an expanded version of the proximately the same in 1969 as in 1968 and are Youth Report in the spring. budgeted at the same level in 1970. . The Society also prepared a number of papers The budget projection for 1970 assumes another during· 1969, including the following: year of growth. Projected revenue from FORUM sub­ .. The Southern Strategy - an analysis of the now scriptions is again dependent on funding for FORUM famous book by Kevin Phillips, aide to the At­ promotion ..The budget also projects salaries for a full­ torney General. time President, National Executive Director, FORUM * The "Complex" Society - a four-part series on Editor and assistants, Research Director, and three staff long-range trends in business, technological and assistants. The budget makes provision for part-time generational developments and their relation to staffing for special projects. This staffing makes it pos­ government and American society. sible to increase the political and governmental exper- * The ABM - a special FORUM supplement . tise of an ever-widening group of members and to dealing with the technological and political as­ better utilize the reservoirs of volunteer help available pects of deployment. to the Society. * Farm Policy - Ripon's proposals for a farm Not included in the projected budget are funds program to return agriculture to a market for the opening of an office in Washington, D.C. The economy. cost of such an office is estimated at approximately $40,000 annually, to cover the salary of a full-time Volunteerism - proposals for engaging the * executive, secretary, rent and expenses. The Society private sector and individuals in activities for is. seeking separate funding for this important exten- the public benefit. sion of its activities. . * The Philadelphia Housing Paper - a strategy for solving the housing crisis prepared by the Outlook new Philadelphia chapter of the Society. At the beginning of the year, many peOple, both * Biafra and the Bureaucrats - on the need for a within and without the Ripon Society, speculated on new U.S. policy toward the Nigerian civil war. the relationship of the Society to the .first Republican * Black Capitalism·- the failures of the program -p""- trim to JIlIN' 22 24