Politics '72: Special 24 Page State by State Survey RIPON

JULY, 1972 - Special Summer Issue Vol. VIII No. 13 . ONE DOLLAR

The Connally Phase In Articles by Thomas E Petri, Howard Gillette and George Gilder

Bow RelorlDers Could Rave NOlDinated Wallaee by Clifford Brown THE RIPON SOCIETY INC is a RepubUcan research THE BEHN BROTHERS I • poUcy organization whose members are young business, academic and professional men and As Roberl D. Beh11 resigns as Ripon's Execu­ women. It has no1ional headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, chapters in thirteen cities, National Associo1e members throughout tive Director, the expansion of the society itself and the fiity sto1es, and several affilio1ed groups of subchapter status. The SOCiety is supported by chapter dues, individual contribu­ its financial base offers the best testimony to his tions and revenues from its pubUco1ions and contract work. The Society offers the follOWing options for annual contribution: Con­ success in this role over the last two years. His exec­ tributor $25 or more; Sustainer $100 or more; Founder $1000 or more. Inquiries about membership and chapter organization should utive achievement, however, comprises only a frac­ be addressed to the No1ional EXecutive Director. NATIONAL GOVEBNING BOABD tion of his services to the society. The editor of Officers -Howard F. Gillette, Jr., President Ripon's 1968 election analysis, The Lessons of Vic­ -Paul F. Anderson, Chainncm of the Board -Patricia A. Goldman, Chairm_ of the Executive Committee tory (Dial, 1969), Bob also has served as a valued -Howard L. Reiter, Vice President -Edward W. Miller, Treasurer catalyst and contributor to the FORUM and we hope -Ron Speed, Secretary Boston Pittsburvh he will continue in this role. His impact as special -Martha Reardon -Murray Dickman Martin A. Linsky James Groninger editor of the June 15 newsletter - particularly his Michael W. Christian Stan Sienkiewicz Cambridge critique of Governor Sargent's reticent Republican­ Joel P. Greene Seuttle -Bob Stewart -Tom Alberg ism - has been signalled in headlines in most of CbiCCl!Jo Dick Dykeman R. Quincy White Mason D. Morisset Massachusetts newspapers. Gene L. Armstrong Jared Kaplan Washington But perhaps his greatest legacy to the FORUM Detroit -Alice Tetelman -Dennis Gibson Larry Finkelstein will be his brother Richard, who ;oins us this is­ Stephen Selander WUUe Leftwich Mary E. Low sue as an associate editor, with special responsibility Hartford Nicholas Norton At Large for the newsletter. He displays the familial talents -Stewart H. McConaughy --Josiah Lee Auspitz Ralph Loomis --Christoper T. Bayley in the Politics '72 SlIpplement beginning on page Los Angeles Christopher W. Beal -Micliael Halliwell Robert L. Baal 13. As we extend regretful best wishes to Bob in Thomas A. Brown --Michael Brewer Edward MeAntff Jan Bridges his move to new responsibilities as a lecturer at Mbmeapolis Ralph Caprio *J ohn Calms --Bruce Chapman Harvard Business School, we are happy to be able leo1l Sasseville Pamela Curtis Nashville Robert W. Davidson to welcome Dick to the staff. (See also 14A Eliot -Robert H. Donaldson Christopher DeMuth Jerry H. Smith EvelYlJ. F. Ellis St. page 47). G. G. Cary Miller Al Felzenberg New Haven Emil H. Frankel -Peter V. Baugher Glenn Gerstell Jeffrey Miller Ralph J. Heikkinen Melvin Dltman --Lee W. Huebner New Jersey Philip C. Johnston -Richard Zimmer William J. I<:ilberg Nancy Miller --J. Eugene Marana John Brotschol Martha McCahill New York Tanya MeUch -Werner Kuhn Don Meyer Richard Rahn --John R. Price, Jr. Richard Scanlan --John S. Saloma III Pbila:delpbicz Jim Self -Robert J. Moss Leah Thcocer WUliam Horton WIlUam Whitten Ken Kalserman Lyndon A.S. Wilson Ex-Officio At Large -Robert D. Behn, National Executive Director CONTENTS -George GUder, Editor of the Jlipoll FORUM -Daniel J. Swillinger, Nationa:1 Political Director -Richard E. Beeman, Policy Chairm= --Peter J. Wallison, Fin=ce Chairm= *Robert Gulick, Co1lllS01 The Oase for ConnaUy -Clair W. Rodgers, Jr., COUllllel by Thomas E Petri 3 *Nationa:l Executive CommiHee Member --Past President. Cha:lrman of the Board. or Cha:inn_ of the Executive Coaumdttee Connally's Prospects THE RIPON FORUM is publis~ed semi-monthlx by the by Howard F. Gillette. Jr...... 5 Ripon SOClety, Inc., 140 Eliot Street. Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138. Second dass postage ro1es p<:!id Boston, Massachusetts. Contents are copyrighted © 1972 by the Is Agnew Preferable? Ripon Society, Inc. Correspondence to the Editor is welcomed. by George Gilder 6 In publishing this magazine the Ripon Society seeks to provide a forum for a spirit of criticism, innovo1ion, and independent think­ ing within the Republican Party. Articles do not necessarily rep­ resent the opinion of the Ripon Society, unless they are explicitly How "Reform" Helps Wallace so labelled. by Cli1ford Brown ...... 8 SUBSCRIPTION RATES are $10 a year, $5 for students, service­ men, and for Peace Corps, Vista and other volunteers. Overseas air m.an, $10 extra. Adverttsing ro1es on request. $10 of any con­ Special 24-page Supplement tribution to the Ripon Society Is credited for a subscriptios to the Ripon FORUM. PoUtics '72 ...... 13 Editor: Georg~ GUder Contributing Editol'Sl Clifford Brown, Glenn Gerstell, Howard Reiter. Circulation Dept.: Judith H. Behn. An Army of Ideologues Arb Leslie Morrill, David Omar White. by Howard L Reiter ...... 37 Correspcmdents Deryl Howard, North Carolina: Stephanie Mc Collaughy, Coma. William K. Woods, Ohio Mike Halliwell, Ca:lIfOriUa: Henri Pell, Junod, Ohio James F. McCollum, Jr., Florida: Stephen Jones, Oklahoma: The Human Costs of Production Michael McCrery, Idaho Eric R. Blackledge, Or89'on by Steven Haft ...... 38 Ben Violette, IllInois Richard Ober, Jr., PeDDll'fIvania: J. Kenneth Doka, Indiana Dono1o Andre D'Andrea, ]l. L C.R. Connell, Iowa: Bruce M. Selya, Rhode IslcmcI. Eric I<:arnes, Kentucky Harris Beach, Jr., So. Carolina: Achieving Civilian Control James Harrington, Maine Stanford M. Adelstein, S. D. by Peter Welch ...... 41 JuUa M. Renner, Micbig_ Patrick W. Dunn, Vermont ~--' Robert R. Murdoch, VirgiJIla: Arth ur.F McCl ure, ~oun Fred O'Brien West Vir9inicz Letters and 14A Eliot St...... 47 William Harding, Nebraska: Linda HannaWay, Wash.. D.C. Al Felzenberg, New Jersey Ken Nikolai, WhIc:onsin Charles O. Ingraham, New York W. Stuart Parsons, WiscollSm McCloskey's Win by Michael Halliwell ...... 48 The choice of the Republican Vice Presidential candidate in 1972 will be one of Richard Nixon~s most important and revealing decisions. It may well determine the Republican nominee for 1976. It will indicate the con­ stituencies on which the President hopes to build a new Republican majority. It will symbolize the hopes and directions of his second term. The mere con­ sideration of a sectarian Democrat for this post is thus a portent OilS event even if he is ttltimately slated for some other role. The great ability and distinctive ideology of former Texas Governor John Connally, the particula1 Democrat at hand, 1'aises the stakes of the de­ cision still higher. Ever since the President named Connally Secretary of the Treasury and granted him broad powers within the Administration, the imperi­ ous Texan leader has at once embodied and symbolized some of the most important enigmas of Republican politics and ideology. In the controls of Phases 1 and 11, he has enthusiastically administerd economic policies, in both domestic and foreign a.fjairs, that the President only reluctantly adopted and that bespeak the priorities of a managed economy more than the market­ place verities of Republicanism. In political terms, he has combined these popular governmental measures with his own phases 1 and 11, first as Sec­ retary of the Treasury and then as international diplom(Jt and consultant for President. The question is whether Connally will proceed now to a phase Ill, in which he serves as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee. In the persttasive memorandttm reprinted here, Thomas E. Petri presents the case for his nomination. But even if he is not chosen - and he may well not be - his position in the next Nixon Administration will be deeply inflttentia1, as Howard Gillette observes in his Washington Viewpoint column. The ideo­ logical issues symbolized by his RePltblican ascendancy will remain acute. In the accompanyinf!: article Georr!e Gilder discusses both the political and ideo­ lo~ical challenrre of John Connally to the GOP.

The Case for Connally by Thomas E Petri John B. Connally should be the President's Vice erate-conservative positlOn on the political spectrum Presidential running mate for three reasons: are well-suited to attract moderate and conservative I. He will be a greater asset in the 1972 cam­ Democrats to the Republican ticket without incurring paign than any other potential Republican Vice Pres­ significant Republican or Independent disaffection. He idential nominee. would also hold conservative Republican votes more II. If elected he will be a more effective Vice than many other possible nominees. Unlike any other President and of greater assistance to the President possible nominee, he can guarantee the electoral votes and service to the country than any other possible from his state for the Republican ticket; votes which nominee. are otherwise questionable. III. He is of Presidential calibre. Two issues determine most Presidential elections I. Connally as an aJSet in the 1972 campaign. - Peace and Prosperity. Connally is known by the public and enjoys the The President has a number of remarkable for­ respect of the press and of the leadership community. eign policy accomplishments to his credit and has He is a natural leader of great presence whose opinions established himself as an imaginative and responsible command attention. He is an experienced political international leader. He can take the campaign initia­ strategist and campaigner who has never lost an elec­ tive on the Peace issue. tion. No other Vice Presidential possibility matches To insure the President's re-election, it is im­ Connally's personal magnetism and political skill. portant that the party also be in position to take the Moreover, Connally's southern political ties and mod- initiative on the Prosperity issue. No potential run-

July, 1972 3 ning mate is better equipped to do this than is Con­ the Vice Presidential selection. Three of our last five nally by virtue of his general background and recent Presidents first served as Vice President. Throughout service at the Treasury and his role in the new eco­ our history second-term Presidents have been succeed­ nomic program which is generally perceived as a bold ed by their Vice Presidents fifty percent of the time. step in the right direction - even by those who think An incumbent Vice President serving under a retiring it came too late or is doing too little. President is the leading contender for his Party's Pres­ The ideal '72 campaign stance is for the Presi­ idential nomination. In these circumstances, a Presi­ dent to take the high road as an international states­ dent's Vice Presidential selection, particularly in his man working for enduring peace with honor abroad second term, is significant for his Party and for the and, in this context, for a reordering of priorities at country: the President is choosing his heir apparent. home, while the Vice Presidential candidate takes the The press and public have increasingly come to fight to the Democrats and campaigns against the Dem­ recognize this and to measure Vice Presidential selec­ ocratic Congress on domestic issues. The most political­ tions in terms of their suitability for the Presidency. ly important domestic issues will be economic and Con­ If the selection measures up, it is a critical campaign nally is ideally prepared on these issues and ideally asset for the President. Over the longer run a strong equipped to turn them from minuses into plusses for choice is also an asset for his Party, since a Vice the President. President who is of generally recognized Presidential II. Connally as an effective Vice President. calibre allows the Party to coalesce around him and to Connally is a fine special assignment man. He is unite for the succeeding campaign (as happened in suited by temperament and experience to bring a sense 1957-60). of direction to a problem. He knows how to direct and John Connally is of Presidential calibre. He has to get results from the federal career service and is experience in business, in state government, on Cap­ brilliant at dealing with Congress and interest groups. itol hill, at the Pentagon and in the cabinet. His pres­ He is a team player of proven loyalty and reliability. ence, forensic skills, and character are generally ac­ His political sense and finesse enable him to apply knowledged. He is one of the few potential Vice Pres­ pressure, rally forces and get results with a minimum idential nominees who would seem able to win the of debilitating bitterness and division. Presidency on his own in 1976. He is not a polarizing or divisive political figure. Because he is respected and even trusted by those Connally has the nne ability to walk into almost any who oppose as well as by those who support him, Con­ gathering and develop a sense of rapport with or at nally may be able to govern more effectively than any least respect from the group. other potential Presidential successor. And this is an III. Connally's Presidential Calihe. important consideration, indeed, for the future well Modern political history proves the importance of being of the Republic.

4 Ripon Forum Connally's Prospects

The resignation of John Mit­ press reports, in the President's The President might choose chell as chairman of Presi­ other critical election-year deci­ instead to make Connally either dent Nixon's re-election commit­ sion, to mine North Viet Nam's Secretary of Defense or State, a tee and his projected political harbors. If the President main­ possibility which has received retirement after the campaign tains his pattern of relying heavi­ considerable attention in the greatly increases the probability lyon a inside political strong press, following leaks from the that the President would give man, the only question is not White House. Such a turn of John Connally a major role in a whether Connally would join a events would probably lead to the second administration. second Nixon Administration but resignation of Henry Kissinger No Republican in Washington what position he would hold. and a move away from the con­ is likely to fill the role Mitchell The disappointing showing of ciliatory pattern of State De­ has held throughout the Admin­ John Ashbrook in the primaries partment policy under William istration as presidential confidant makes the conservative demands Rogers. One could well expect a and manager of day-to-day po­ to keep Agnew less compelling kind of big stick diplomacy un­ litical affairs. Nixon's longtime than they might once have been. der Connally, not seen since the friend and now Counselor Rob­ Besides, with the specter of Mc­ days of Teddy Roosevelt. ert Finch has already made clear Govern as the Democratic nom­ The President is clearly keep­ his commitment to return to Cal­ inee, the President can argue ing his options open until after ifornia politics. Neither Finch conseryatives will have nowhere the Democrats choose their tick­ nor Donald Rumsfeld, who has else to go. Certainly, Connally et. Though it is clear the White also served as Counselor, have would help Nixon's efforts to House went out of its way to been intimately involved in crit­ court the South, without the lia­ help Agnew's write-in campaign ical presidential decisions and bility Agnew gained with Dem­ in New Hampshire, it appears are unlikely to fill that role in the ocrats and independents in 1970 the President mainly wished to future. George Schultz, who has as a highly partisan hatchet man. keep his options open, just as proved to be the President's most Although Connally has said he he did when Mitchell knocked trusted utility man, first as Sec­ wants to maintain a private life down the theory the convention retary of Labor, then as Director in Texas, he is unlikely to turn would not accept a Democrat for of Management and Budget and down a request from the Pres­ Vice President. Connally's role now as Secretary of the Treas­ may be confined in the next few ury, does not have the political ident to join the ticket, espe­ cially when it would give his interest or expertise to replace months merely to trouble shoot­ own presidential ambitions such Mitchell. ing and a possible stint as chair­ Beyond Mitchell, no man has a boost. The only question his man of a Democrats for Nixon played a more important ad­ candidacy would raise would be Committee. But it is not alto­ visory role to the President of what strength he would bring to gether improbable that as Mr. late than Connally. He not only the ticket, when the President ap­ Nixon looks ahead to a second set up and implemented the new pears to need help not in the term, he will decide the man he Economic policy, on which the South but in states where Con­ wants to replace John Mitchell President has staked so much of nally would have limited appeal, as political advisor ought to run his re-election hopes, but he like Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey on the ticket in November. played a major role, according to and California. - HOWARD F. GILLETTE, JR.

July, 1972 5 Is Agnew Preferable~

Connally's Phase III by George Gilder

The Republican party faces a deeply seductive the rising proportionate strength of the right wing opportunity in the probable availability of erstwhile within it. When President Nixon leaves office, there Treasury Secretary John Connally for the GOP Vice­ is a real danger that his lack of a "governing strategy" Presidential nomination. With George McGovern's described by Lee Auspitz (FORUM, May) - and candidacy, the party realignment long sought by many his party's lack of any durable recruiting effort - will Republican conservatives and Democratic liberals has lead to a declining Republican coalition incapable of for the first time become plausible. By demonstrating sustaining a winning campaign or effective government. that a Southern Democrat like Connally can reasonably Just as President Eisenhower's years of inatten­ aspire to the nation's highest offi:e as a Republican, tion to party affairs (and attention to Johnson-Ray­ the party could significantly weaken the remaining burn Democrats) left the party vulnerable to Gold­ taboos against Democratic defections to the Southern water, so President Nixon's incoherent and sometimes GOP. A Nixon-Connally ticket might at last com­ demagogic political strategies may well destroy the bine with "heartland" Republicanism that "Sunbelt" potential contribution of his national policies to sound coalition which has long been the special constituency party development. In order to sustain a successful Re­ of the former governor of Texas. publicanism; the party may have to look beyond itself, Support for Connally, however, goes well beyond as it did in 1952. the advocates of a conservative realignment. Thomas Certainly the Nixon Administration does not daz­ E. Petri's memo on the subject reflects opinions on the zle the eye with other leaders of Presidential stature. charismatic Texan heard increasingly among Progres­ It is not at all inconceivable that without Connally we sive Republicans. A founding member and first Exec­ could be stranded in 1976 with Agnew and a conven­ utive Director of Ripbfi who worked with Connally on tion captured by right-wing zealots. Or we could be the Ash Commission on Executive Re-organization, faced with a 1972 ticket including Brock, Buckley or Petri presents an inviting argument. Not only would some other cosmetic conservative more difficult than Connally contribute most to the ticket, Petri maintains, Agnew to beat in primaries in 1976. but the Texan would also be a powerful and effective Therefore, unless we assume that Nixon may an­ Vice President, fully qualified to assume the highest noint Senator Brooke or some other moderate, Agnew office. or Connally may be the best we can expect in 1972. Agnew might be preferred because he is beatable in Beyond the cogent case made by Petri on Connal­ 1976 primaries; Connally because he is not. The Texan ly's merits, there are intriguing tactical considerations. could secure the 1976 nomination while Vice Presi­ His prospective nomination implies a decisive demo­ dent, win the election and serve as a strong and effec­ tion of the incumbent, Spiro Agnew. Since he now tive President. Progressives who think they can win rivals Ronald Reagan as a post-prandial entertainer, it the intra-party struggle in 1976 thus might support seems desirable to relieve Agnew of the kind of exec­ Agnew; the more pessimistic might embrace Connally. utive responsibilities that finally made the Californian And at present, the pessimists do not lack a case. such a bore. Connally's nomination also suggests Finally there is the devious concern that if Con­ one way of blocking control of the GOP by right-wing nally is not made Vice President he will be named Sec­ Republicans in 1976: namely, as some cynics might retary of State. With Rogers' resignation signalled and point out, through control by a right-wing Democrat Kissinger's expected, the change would represent an - but one who might be seen in the Republican spec­ abrupt shift, potentially damaging to the fabric of our trum as moderate, and accessible to progressives. foreign policy. A Nixon-Connally-Haig diplomacy Receptivity toward Connally is enhanced by the would be radically different from the approach of Nix­ continuing decline of our party's base - together with on -Kissinger-Rogers.

6 Ripon Forum Such calculations ultimately pall, however. Our ble candidate for 1976 (if the voters' aarenal systems politics are not so predictable that we should advocate can only bear up under the strain of his charisma). vice Presidential candidates on such narrow .tactical From every point of view, the best pick would grounds. For from a longer perspective, both Agnew still be Senator Brooke. As Senate Minority Leader and Connally seem disasters in political and ideo­ Hugh Scott has put it, Brooke would be a choice worthy logical terms. Agnew's liabilities are familiar; he is of a President who can transform great power diplo­ widely regarded as a clown and will hurt any ticket macy with high level negotiations in Peking and Mos­ he is on, unless it is to a fund raising dinner. Despite cow. But Nixon's vision - often farsighted in the Connally's enormous abilities, his disqualifications are global realm - usually narrows and blurs when he ad­ scarcely less severe. He contributes little to Nixon's dresses matters of domestic policy and political strat­ own base of support and he is ideologically alien to egy. His preoccupation with Wallace voters will prob­ the deepest traditions of Republicanism. ably cause him to miss the compensating gains he can The political case for Connally is weaker than win among blacks and moderates North and South, it appears. With Wallace's campaign in dubious straits, and the elevation he could gain in history. Nixon is already assured of a strong performance Two nearly equally inviting choices would be against the Democrats throughout the South and border Governors William Cahill of New Jersey and Nelson states, including Texas. And in Texas Connally's grip Rockefeller of New York, both swing states. Despite has been weakening in recent years. Connally protege his current embarrassment (an indicted assistant), Ca­ Ben Barnes was swamped in the recent Gubernatorial hill is one of the nation's two or three best state exec­ primary, (after apparently exceeding the state's new utives and offers politically opportune appeal both speed limits for enrichment in public office). Although among urban Catholics and among progressive Repub­ the scandals in the state's Democratic establishment do licans and independents. Although Rockefeller is old­ not touch Connally, he cannot have survived utterly er (he'll be 68 in 1976) and Protestant, his pre-emi­ unscathed a primary in which not only Barnes but nent Presidential qualifications compensate for these also brother Wayne Connally, a Lt. Gubernatorial can­ tactical weaknesses; and he shares with Brooke the vir­ didate, was defeated. tue of symbolizing a hope that a second Nixon term would not be as barren of domestic achievement as the In 1968 Connally was forced to abandon earlier first. efforts for Nixon when he saw the Humphrey band­ The Real Danger wagon was rolling too hard for him to stop. Needless The real danger to Nixon, it should be remem­ to say, none of these considerations is meant to sug­ bered, is the loss of enough suburban independents, gest that the former Governor would not be a· substan­ swing Democrats and Reoublicans to allow a McGov­ tial asset for the ticket in Texas and elsewhere in ern sweep of the large Northern states. This danger November. But Nixon can win without Connally in is best illustrated by the recent New Jersey campaign the states where the Texan is strong. Connally's im­ of Nelson Gross, who ran for the Senate on a strident pact on the voters, in all likelihood, will be less than anti-"extremist" "radiclib" pitch like the one now be­ his impact on opportunistic Southern Democrats. He ing contemplated for 1972 and lost catastrophically will function chiefly as a dramatic symbol of an as­ just one year after Cahill's decisive election as Gov­ cendent strategy of Southern realignment. ernor. Just as the party today, Gross ignored warnings Presuming that at least some of the traditional that "frontlash" swing voters are both more influen­ voting patterns hold firm, however, the real battle­ tial and more numerous than "backlash" swing voters. ground will be not in the South and border states but In sum, neither the retention of Agnew, nor the in California, Ohio and Illinois or some other com­ nomination of Connally will afford significant political bination of Northern industrial states and California. benefits to the Republicans. But Connally suffers from In these states a Nixon-Connally tandem might be suc­ a further disqualification. Beyond his political liabili­ cessfully depicted as a ticket of big money Protestant ties, which admittedly might be overcome through his hawks. In the atmosphere of ITT and the Bay of Pigs impressive campaigning, he suffers from one problem at the Watergate, such charges might even give Mc­ which seems to us prohibitive. Connally's nomination Govern some momentum. would strike at the very core of Republican identity These states are absolutely vital to Nixon. Even and solidarity. without California, in fact, Nixon may win if he holds Despite all the differences among us, most Re­ Ohio. Robert Taft Jr. would thus be a valid choice in publicans on both the right and left share an instinc­ political terms and his nomination would contribute to tive aversion to federal power and a strong commit­ the resolution in 1972 of still dangerous political con­ ment to the private enterprise system. These values flicts in Ohio Republicanism. If Taft continues to grow join James Buckley with Charles Percy, and the Ripon in office, moreover, he might even become a respecta- Society with the American Enterprise Institute. Weare

July, 1972 7 all skeptical of the salves and subsidies of the service against an intrusive state. On most other issues pro­ station state, which as Richard Whalen puts it in his gressive Republicans have more in common with Buck­ new book Catch the Falling Flag, would "national­ ley than with Connally. At the time of the Lockheed ize the losses" of politically-advantaged firms, while crisis, for example, Buckley issued an eloquent attack "keeping their profits private." on Connally's statist scheme to create a federal fund Republican agreement on these matters is central in the Treasury with which to bail out corporations to the Republican ideology. It is central to our role as when their failure was judged to jeopardize the na­ the party of responsible business and individualism. tional economy or security. Such a program would The very legitimacy of the profit system - both in quickly become part of the risk calculus of the nation's moral and functional terms - depends on the exist­ corporations and they would be forced to increase their ence of a competitive economy in which the entrepre­ already excessive tendency to compete less in the neur risks reward or penalty for the quality of his market place than in the halls of Congress and the judgement and initiative. Although we acknowledge suites of the executive. The Secretary of the Treasury that these economic mechanisms may often need to be would be given a life and death hold on our nation's supplemented by regulatory and social programs, the largest businesses. The fact that this proposal could free market ideal is the lodestar of Republican ideol­ have been originated by a Republican Administration ogy. dramatizes the subversive threat Connally poses to Re­ Statist Instincts publican identity. John Connally's instincts, on the other hand, are By naming Connally to the ticket, Nixon might statist. He is a political product of those sectors of the fulfill our June 1971 prediction: that the GOP would Texas economy based on oil and agricultural subsidies be betrayed to the very forces which during the John­ and quotas, and on aerospace and other military con­ son years brought administrative paralysis, political tracts. His attitude toward international commerce is chaos and electoral defeat to the Democrats. The Texas nationalist and mercantilist, founded on the two key as­ establishment is a major beneficiary of the structural sumptions which the statists of the American right distortions in the economy that brought us simultane­ share with the Marxist Left: that the market is ob­ ous inflation, unemployment and stagnation. These dis­ solescent and that international economics is a zero­ tortions were caused by the war, by artificially high sum game. In a belief suggestive of the Socialist prices for petroleum and petrochemical products, by theory of capitalist "exploitation," Connally seems to the array of protectionist measures benefitting other believe that whenever one trade participant gains, an­ Southern commercial and agricultural interests at the other loses; and it is clear to the former Secretary that expense of the nation's consumers and retailers, and the U.S. has been losing in recent years. "The United by excessive investment in aerospace industries which States did very well in the past" Connally says, "when bid up the price of scarce technical personnel but make we were a lean and hungry nation ... But now we are little contribution to real economic growth. In addition, rich and the rest of the world is lean and hungry and an important cause of the growing fiscal crisis of North­ out to get what we've got ... So we've got to protect ern city and state governments is the overwhelming ourselves. " mal distribution of federal wealth, supervised by South­ At a time when the U.S. is already "pro­ ern Congressional satraps, in favor of the South and tected" with more comprehensive import quotas and Southwest. tariffs than any other major free economy, Connally's attitude is based less on sober analysis than on an If these trends continue, as a Connally Vice Pres­ authoritarian fear of economic processes beyond the idency would portend, revenue sharing is doomed to calculation and control of government. And as he an inconsequential trickle, welfare reform will be crip­ seeks assurances of managed benefits that no free com­ pled, inflation will intensify despite the mummery of petitive marketplace can offer, he makes inequitable controls, and the Republican party ultimately will be demands on other countries far more dependent on as split and discredited as the Democratic party of trade than ourselves. Together with his international 1968. Under such circumstances Connally and his blustering, his a:)proach poses a significant th~eat. to Texas friends will show as much real loyalty to the world capitalist solidarity at a time when capitahsm GOP as they have shown to the Democrats in the is under severe attack. past. Connally's conservative reputation derives not Connally's potential nomination may hurt the right from any commitment to principle or even from a wing more than the left wing of our party. But it at­ skepticism toward governmental interventions in the tacks the very core of meaning of the party as a whole. economy and society. His chief affinities with the con­ His success as a Republican President would be a servatives are that he is a hawk on foreign and defense greater defeat for Republicanism than any mere Dem­ policy and a dove in defending individual liberties ocratic candidate could achieve.

8 Ripon Forum How "Reformers" ('ould Have

Nominated Wallace

by Clifford Brown

Whatever course the Miami Con­ ing fathers envisioned for the elec­ paign. The kind of direct mail vention takes, the McGovern cam­ toral college. With this cushion soliciting which McGovern used paign will enter history as one gone, vast possibilities are opened could have been just as effective for of the most remarkable political for many who never could begin Wallace, large contributors nearly achievements in the American ex­ to envision their own nomination. as numerous, and event financing perience. Not only will future Governor Wallace is such a might­ just as lucrative. tacticians appreciate the strategic have-been. A Scenario achievements of the McGovern If in 1970 George Wallace had managers, but political moralists The Wallace bandwagon would had tlle, foresight or simple nerve have started in Florida with his will regard the Senator's perform­ to launch a campaign for the Dem­ ance as a vindication of the politics spectacular victory on March 14 ocratic nomination, and had pur­ (75 delegate votes). As it was, he of reform. It truly can be said that sued a tactical strategy similar to the triumph of the left wing was entered the race very late with little that of George McGovern, there is organizational support. With more made possible by the politics of no reason to believe (with the ben­ "openness," of "representative­ planning and more money he efit of hindsight) that his chances might have reached 50 percent - ness," of "participation" - by the of being nominated would have vast extension of direct democracy although his 41.5 percent appear­ been less than those of George Mc­ ed quite impressive as it was. and the vast limitations imposed on Govern. traditional party power centers. But Since the regular Chicago ma­ those who wrote the reform provi­ It seems self-evident in retrospect chine controls and would withhold sions into party law, and those that Wallace could have obtained his likely vote, Wallace might have who created the McGovern phalanx, most of the assets which made the left the Illinois test on March 21 must be haunted - at the moment McGovern victory possible. His to the other contestants (with a del­ of their triumph - by the realiza­ charisma could have attracted a large egate slate in some areas perhaps - tion that George Wallace could number of volunteer workers. They another 15 votes). Then with a have beaten them at their own game. would have been a considerably dif­ glance at his 1964 performance It soon will be time to evaluate ferent type of volunteer from the Wallace might have focused on more fully the impact of McGov­ McGovern worker - in general re­ Wisconsin. Good survey research ern's reforms: removing the "cush­ cruited from the hiring halls instead could have told him where to put ion" which the party hierarchy had of from the liberal Northeast, yet his effort. As it was, he took second placed between the rank-and-file and no doubt as effective on the door­ with 22 percent of the vote (com­ the selection process, a cushion that bell as anyone else. Wallace could pared to McGovern's 30 percent). for over a century has partly filled have obtained, with effort, sufficient He came within a few hundred the screening role which the found- funds to finance a national cam- votes of carrying two Congressional

July, 1972 9 Districts and he had a fighting the liberal's performance - another actual performances in Pennsylva­ chance of carrying a third - all in 50 votes. nia, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but fact carried by McGovern. also by the implications of his vic­ Wisconsin under these circum­ Indiana Breakthrough tory in Michigan. It is easy to dis­ stances would have been to Wal­ After Pennsylvania came Indiana parage his Michigan majority as lace what New Hampshire was to and Ohio. Marshalling scarce re­ the result of assassination sympathy McGovern: a performance in a sources, Wallace might have put or Republican crossovers or busing state far from home which indi­ most of his effort into Indiana. In­ or the irresponsibility of voters who cated the possibility of things to deed, Indiana might have been to knew that Wallace never could have come. If Wallace had carried two Wallace what Wisconsin was to been nominated and hence that they or three Wisconsin C.D.'s for McGovern. Again, his strong 1964 could afford to vote for him. But 20 votes, the McGovern campaign performance would have indicated all this misses the point. Wal­ would have been deBated consider­ such a strategy. Wallace campaign­ lace's Michigan victory was im­ ably, the Florida spectacular would ed hard in Indiana this year - but mense, covering the entire state, vir­ have seemed less regional, and the he lacked organization and good tually every county, cutting into bandwagon would have been un­ television advertising. He lost to large percentages of every white derway. Humphrey 47 to 42 percent. element in the Democratic party not After Wisconsin came Massachu­ It is easy to envision a Wal­ associated with a college campus. If setts (which could have been wise­ lace win there with 50 percent of he could do it in Michigan, home ly left to McGovern) and Pennsyl­ the vote as the result of a long­ of the U AW and the most liberal vania, in which Wallace could have planned sleeper effort like McGov­ Democratic party in the mid-West, fared very well. This .year he came ern's Wisconsin campaign. On the the vote totals we postulated for in second there with 21.2 percent same day in Ohio he might have the rest of the mid-West might of the vote - aboata point more won 55 of 153 delegates by run­ seem conservative. than McGovern. However, he en­ ning a full slate and devoting some Furthermore, Michigan demon­ tered only four candidates for del­ effort in a few key areas. Consider­ strated the tremendous weakness of egates while McGoYern fielded a ing his performance this year in Humphrey, who was buried in eve­ complete slate. McGo-vern's 20 per­ working class areas in neighboring ry region of the state except the cent of the vote netted him 37 del­ Indiana and Michigan, it seems Western tip of the northern pen­ egates elected from state senatorial quite possible for him to have pick­ ninsula near Minnesota. If the Wal­ districts, and an additional bonus ed up 30 percent of Ohio's dele­ lace scenario had proceeded as we of about 20 when state-wide selec­ gation - had he fielded a slate. suggest, the Muskie collapse would tions were made roughly propor­ These two states would have given not have been replaced as decisive­ tional to each candidate's elected him 80 votes between them. ly by a McGovern surge and Wal­ delegate strength. Following Indiana and Ohio lace's position as the major alterna­ Governor Wallace's vote, how­ were Tennessee (49 votes), North tive to Humphrey might have given ever, like the McGovern vote, was Carolina (40 votes), Nebraska and him even more than the 70 votes sufficiently concentrated geographi­ West Virginia. The first two were legally entitled to him in 1972 by cally to elect delegates in a number obvious Wallace territory and the Michigan law. of state senatorial districts. In fact, others he could have ignored the A good campaign organization, his concentration in Pittsburgh and way McGovern ignored Illinois, utilizing intelligent press briefings, Southwestern Pennsylvania was very Indiana, West Virginia, North more national advertising, and con­ similar to McGovern's concentra­ Carolina and Tennessee. Then centrating its effort in key areas tion in the Philadelphia suburbs came Michigan and Maryland where could have created a band-wagon and Southeastern Pennsylvania. It Wallace swept the primaries this atmosphere which would have made seems reasonable to believe that had year for a legal total of approxi­ Wallace into a real possibility in Wallace fielded a complete slate, mately 100 votes in the two states. the eyes of the public by the time he could have elected as many del­ A good organization would have of the Michigan primary. The above egates as McGovern did, although ensured that in primary states such scenario does not depart far from the party hierarchy might well have as Maryland and Tennessee actual actuality. found means of trimming his bonus Wallace supporters could have been Whether he could have kept the votes. If his effort in Pennsylvania elected as delegates and attempts to momentum up sufficiently to have had had anywhere near the ad­ erode his vote in those states could achieved a narrow plurality in Cal­ vanced planning of the McGovern have been frustrated. ifornia in a 3-way contest is sheer campaign it seems difficult to see The plausibility of this scenario speculation. He received about 7 how he could have fared worse than is enhanced not only by Wallace's percent on a write-in this year. But

10 Ripon Forum the psychology of it all is difficult one in his organization bothered to land, and a McGovern-style blitz to gauge and California can be a read the rules for selecting dele­ in the remaining West, Wallace very unpredictable state. gates, 'an effort was launched in could have had a first ballot stik­ There are many "conservatives" Texas which gave him more than ing distance projection of 1350, as in California who usually vote Re­ a third of the votes. Consider the indicated on the chart. publican but who are registered as possibilities if he had started a few We cannot pursue this ghostly Democrats. Some have suggested months earlier. speculation any further, but it is in­ that Southern California is a South­ Second, outside the South there teresting to put the Wallace, Hum­ ern state. Mayor Yorty, in his state­ is no reason to believe that the phrey, and McGovern performances wide campaigns, has attracted a re­ same phenomenon of inspired cau­ into some kind of perspective. spectable percentage of the vote in cus packing which made McGov­ There were nineteen presidential a primary, and it is not impossible ern's position possible could not preference primaries in which at to envision a Wallace plurality at have been duplicated by Wallace. least one major contender was on 35 percent of the vote in a multi­ No one will ever know whether an the ballot. (Not including those pri­ man race. Four presidential prima­ organized Wallace could have turn­ maries which simply elected dele­ ries this year were won with less ed out more cadres in an Idaho pre­ gates). In these nineteen contests, than 40 percent of the vote. cinct than an organized McGovern using the results published in CQ, In the early pliases of the Wal­ actually did - but the possibility McGovern received 3,887,120 votes, lace campaign this year, his prima­ cannot be dismissed as out of hand. Humphrey 4,002,203 and Wallace ry turnout bore a close resemblance Certainly in Kentucky and Missou­ 3, 589,762. In the eleven contests both in size and area to his 1968 ri he could have achieved the over­ where both McGovern and Wal­ presidential vote in each state, but throw of the establishment which lace were on the ballot together, Mc­ this percentage began to increase McGovern failed to, and in large Govern finished ahead of Wallace as the campaign progressed. 111 areas of the plains and mountains in six and behind in five, but Wal­ Florida, for instance, he received Wallace might well have split the lace led in popular votes by three fewer votes than in 1968. In In­ delegation with the South Dakotan. quarters of a million, receiving diana he received about 25 percent 2,601,319 to McGovern's 1,862,- more than in the 1968 general elec­ Caucus Packing 102. Of the total votes cast for all tion. In Michigan he received about Finally, in some Northern pri­ candidates in these nineteen prima­ 2Y2 times as many votes. A similar mary states, New Jersey and espe­ ries, McGovern received less than performance in California would cially New York, he might have 30 percent. have produced a victory. elected some delegates. The New These figures do not, of course, York primary, which McGovern If one can envision a Wallace include New York and New Jersey swept largely by default, had a very plurality in California - and it where McGovern romped over the light turnout - less than 20 per­ seems incautious to rule it out com­ non-opposition in skimpy turnouts. cent of registered Democrats. Could pletely - then the possibility of his But nevertheless the closeness of not Wallace have attracted the Proc­ nomination (retrospectively) exist­ the total vote for the three above cacino vote in several congressional ed. For Wallace as much as Mc­ candidates raises many questions districts in the city? Could he not Govern could have turned his sup­ about how a candidate who received have carried a few upstate districts porters out of the woodwork to less than a third of the votes cast as well - if he had been organ­ pack the local caucuses - and it in primaries - no matter how you ized and had contested in selected would seem that in most states he calculate it - could receive 50 per­ areas? As McGovern has shown, could have mustered more than the cent of the committed delegates with light turnouts, organization South Dakotan. If enthusiasts are when the convention opened. decides. ' the key to power, then Wallace In 1968 the answer to an ana­ missed many opportunities. The numbers are impressive (see logous question was boss control. First of all, he could have buried chart). In the Big Nine - assum­ In 1972 the answer is ideological all opposition in the Southern states. ing a California plurality, he could commitment which produced work­ Considering what McGovern, of all have received over 600 votes un­ ers who produced caucus coups and people, did in South Carolina and der the assumption already stated. close pluralities - all presided over Virginia, just imagine what an or­ In the Little Six, an additional two by an organization which knew ganized and effoctive Wallace team hundred would have been quite what it was doing. But if organ­ might have done there - and in plausible, and the remaining south ization and issues commitment made Georgia, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. could have contributed over two the difference this year it is very When Wallace began to understand hundred more. With solid support difficult to deny that Wallace, with his own potential and when some- in the border states, including Mary- an organizational leadership com-

July, 1972 11 parable to that of McGovern's, spite of, not because of, the re­ could have created the local organ­ forms. He would have been stop­ izations which would have parlayed ped by the Blacks together with Wallace Potential issues commitment into a perform­ what was left of the old power ....'"Qi ance comparable to that of the Dem­ structure, not by the "new politics" ro b.O ocratic front-runner. which Wallace previously would ~ have defeated at its own game, with Q The symmetry between the Wal­ QiQi its own methods. :0(.) lace and McGovern efforts has been .~ ro In promoting openness and par­ ~~ mentioned many times this year. As ~~ his agonizingly slow rise in nation­ ticipation the McGovern reforms I. The Big Nine (1527) are in many respects an improve­ New York 278 50 wide polls shows, it is not at all California 271 271 clear that the Senator from South ment over the previous system from Pennsylvania 182 50 the standpoint of pure democratic Illinois 170 15 Dakota had any greater base of sup­ Ohio 1S3 53 port among party rank-and-file than theory. In some other respects, such Michigan 132 80 as a tendency toward administered Texas 130 75 the Governor of Alabama. If yoa New Jersey 109 25 retrospectively consider the possibil­ categorical quotas, they are essen­ Massachusetts 102 tially elitist. None the less we Re­ 621 ity of a Wallace nomination to II. The Little Six (425) have been absurd, think back a publicans would do well to consider F10rida 81 75 Indiana 76 45 year and remember how likely you some similar alterations designed Missouri 73 35 thought McGovern's nomination to to promote party expansion into Wisconsin 67 20 Minnesota 64 have been. Only Wallace, moreover, growing new constituencies. N. Carolina 64 40 could have exploited the McGovern 215 Democratic theory, however, III. Remaining South (244) reforms to the extent McGovern should be tempered with institu­ Alabama 37 37 Georgia 53 50 did. Inspired caucus packing can tional reality in the spirit of the Louisiana 44 40 only be accomplished by the candi­ Federalist. We should be careful Mississippi 25 25 South Carolina 32 30 dacy of an ideologically committed not to destroy the safeguard afford­ Virginia 53 40 man, or a candidate whose per­ ed by the influence on the nomi­ 222 sonal magnetism far exceeds that of IV. Favorite Son States (116) nating process of experienced polit­ Arkansas 27 27 a Muskie or Humphrey. icians. They know the candidates, Maine 20 South Dakota 17 have prevailed in real elections, and Washington 52 Less Elite Support can counteract the effectiveness of 27 Of course there are many other V. Historic Primaries (179) militant minorities exploiting the D.C. 15 areas where Wallace would have loopholes in any democratic system Maryland 53 41 Nebraska 24 been much worse off than McGov­ where levels of knowledgable partic­ New Hampshire 18 ern. The media and other relative­ ipation may be relatively low. And Oregon 34 West Virginia 35 15 ly elite institutions would never have since the elected public officials in 56 given him as warm a reception - any party collectively represent a VI. Northeast Remainder + although the cataclysmic portents of Territories (114) voting majority far larger than Connecticut 51 a Wallace victory would have a cer­ usually turns out in primaries, it Delaware 13 Rhode Island 22 tain appeal to a sensation-seeking can be argued that they reflect both Vermont 12 journalist. Wallace would have pro­ a broader base of party membership Territories 16 voked a much greater negative re­ and a greater commitment and abil­ o VII. Remaining Border States (135) sponse and it might have resulted ity to win elections. Kentucky 47 30 in large turnouts in later primaries. Oklahoma 39 20 The packed caucus and the stack­ Tennessee 49 49 The unions might have coalesced ed primary are first cousins of 99 around an alternative - the V AW VIII. Remaining West (276) the smoke-filled room. Let us Alaska 10 might have worked a trifle harder hope that as we proceed with the Arizona 25 in Michigan, the Blacks would have Colorado 36 urgent task of opening and expand­ Hawaii 17 turned out in greater numbers, the ing our party, we Republicans can Idaho 17 Iowa 46 110 political bosses who grudgingly ac­ avoid some of the mistakes, some of Kansas 35 cepted McGovern would have work­ the self-righteous simplicities, of the Montana 17 Nevada 11 ed much harder against Wallace, McGovern minority, which might New Mexico 18 and so forth. He probably would have enabled the Wallace minority N. Dakota 14 Utah 19 have been stopped. But he would to exercise power far beyond its real Wyoming 11 have been stopped by an elite, in support. TOTAL 1350

12 Ripon Forttm RIPON FORUM Special Supplement

Polities "2

Dick Behn, Editor

A Survry of the 1972 elections, from Presidential to State~Legislative RaceJ; compiled from Reports by Ripon Correspondents in all 50 States Introduetion

The following prognostications re­ has a good field position. Will he tionment and "edistricting will have flect the strong political position nOtu fumble? a significant impact. And many others held by President Nixon across the Republican representation in the will change personalities - at last country, but the predictions must be Senate and the House of Representa­ count, 52 incumbents were not sched­ tempered by the experience of past tives is not likely to improve signif­ uled to f'eturn next session. But the Nixon campaigns. The President has icantly this year, much less turn the overall shift will be small. always run well in the summer. The Republicans into the majority party in III 1972 gubernatorial races the Re­ President's lead - and the leads of either house. The Republicans should publicans will have a chance to take many other Republicans who are now be hard-pressed to merely hold their currently Democratic state houses in favored 01' marginal - are subject to current 45 seats in the Senate. In the Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana, and the charisma of the McGovern crusade House, the Republican prospects are North Dakota, but other Republican into the Promised Land, an anticipated little better despite the fears of many Governors may have difficulty staying Democratic voter-registration drive, the congressional Democrats that the pres­ progress of the War and the Economy, idential candidacy of Senator George in office. On balance, despite the rev­ voter reaction to the President's stand McGovern might be a congressional olution in politics in the Democratic on school busing, and the proven abil­ disaster. Some congressional seats may Party, the prospects for drastic changes ity of the NixOlI campaign organiza­ challge parties - particularly in the ill the relative status of either party tions to reduce commanding leads. To large industrial states of New York, this year are not revolutionary. use a football analogy, the President Illinois and California where reappor- -DICK BEHN

~ ~ PRESIDENTIAL ~ CONGRESS ~ CONGRESS ~ o Predicted ~ ~ ~ ~ Results ~ ~ ~ Ii;l ..= ~ ~ ~ rT.l ~ ~ g Alabama 9 D 4 3- New Jersey 17 R 8 7*- Arkansas 6 3 1 D New Mexico 4 R'" 1 1- California 45 23* 20'"- New York 41 21 18*- Colorado 7 R 2 3'"- North Carolina 13 R* 7 4 D Connecticut 8 4 2- North Dakota 3 o 1 R'" Delaware 3 R o 1 R Ohio 25 7 16 Florida 17 11'" 4*- Oklahoma 8 R* 4 2 D Georgia 12 9 1- Oregon 6 R 2 2 Hawaii 4 2 0- Pennsylvania 27 13 12 Idaho 4 R 2 0- Rhode Island 4 R * 2 0 R* illinois 26 R 11 13*- South Carolina 8 R 5 1 Indiana 13 5 6 R South Dakota 4 D'" 2 0 D Iowa 8 R 1 5 R Tennessee 10 R 3 5 Kansas 7 R 1 4 D Texas 26 R 22* 2 D Kentucky 9 R 5 2- Utah 4 2 0 D Louisiana 10 D 8 0- Vermont 3 o 1 R Maine 4 R 1 1*- Virginia 12 D 4 6 Maryland 10 4 4*- Washington 9 6 1 R Massachusetts 14 R 10* 2- West Virginia 6 D 4 0 Dolo Michigan 21 R 8* 11 - Wisconsin 11 5 4 Minnesota 10 D 4 4- Wyoming 3 R 1 0 Mississippi 7 D 4 1*- D.C. 3 Missouri 12 9 1 R TOTAL 288 66 184 D-12 252 183 D-10 Montana 4 D 1 1 R'" R,21 R-8 Nebraska 5 R o 3 R Nevada 3 o 1 Net Change +3R +2R +2R New Hampshire 4 D o 2 R *Party Gains

14 Ripon Forum Alabama only announced Democratic candidate, PRESIDENTIAL: President Nixon got a grand total House Speaker Eugene Guess, 39. Al­ of 14.1 percent of the Alab~ vote in though Guess is considered a more for­ 1968, and got virtually no support from midable candidate than Stevens faced the State's GOP organization who said when he was appointed to fill the unex­ GOP incumbents couldn't "afford" a pired term of the late Sen. Bob Bartlett, strong Nixon effort. Nixon chances for the administration's actions on key Alas­ Alabama's eight electoral votes will de­ kan issues wiII help Stevens. pend - as in several southern states - CONGRESSIONAL: Congressman Nick Begich (D) on the actions of Alabama's governor is riding the crest of his popularity after Wallace. The Republican organization is the settlement of the land claims dispute still weak in Alabama and the President and will be a heavy favorite against State isn't as strong against mass educational Rep. Don Young. transit as many Alabambians would like. STATE: All of Alaska's legislators will be up for elec­ SENATORIAL: Incumbent John Sparkman, 74, will tion because of redistricting, which will be challenged by former Postmaster Gen­ hurt Republicans, currently evenly split eral Winton M. Blount. Understandably, with the Democrats in the Senate while the 51-year-old Blount favors a compul­ outnumbered in the House. But the re­ sory retirement age for Congress. Spark­ cent legislative session has elicited wide man barely captured a majority of the public disapproval and will be a GOP Democratic electorate in his six-man pri­ asset. In a Nixon-Stevens victory, the mary field while Blount won a surprising­ Alaskan GOP is hopeful of a legislative ly easy victory over two GOP rivals. victory. Sparkman is the natural favorite. Blount is a long shot possibility only if Nixon scores a big victory in the state. Spark­ Arizona man's age and his purported ties to out­ PRESIDENTIAL: Arizona will have one more elec­ state banking interests were the major toral vote than in 1968: so Nixon will issues in the Democratic primary and his pick up six. The movement instigated by candidacy will probably be aided by bank Cezar Chavez's farm workers to recall lobbyists who fear his replacement as Republican Gov. Jack Williams in a con­ chairman of the Senate Banking, Hous­ troversyover a recently-passed farm labor ing and Urban Affairs Committee by lib­ law is not expected to succeed or to af­ eral Wisconsin Senator William Prox­ fect the President's chances significantly, mire. Among the Republicans defeated though it could result in greater Dem­ by Blount was arch-conservative former ocratic registration among minorities. Rep. James D. Martin. The employment situation in the state is CONGRESSIONAL: Alabama lost one seat onts eight healthy. congressional seats in redistricting. Sec­ CONGRESSIONAL: Two Republican incumbents and ond District Rep. William L. Dickinson, one Democratic incumbent are favored a relative moderate by Alabama Repub­ for re-election. The key race is in the lican standards, will be challenged by new 4th C.D. where three Republicans State Rep. Ben C. Reeves (D). Dickin­ are seeking the nomination: John Conlan, son was redistricted into a seat held by an arch-conservative; Bill Baker, a state another Democratic incumbent, but Con­ Republican official who is the candidate gresswoman Elizabeth B. Andrews, who of the Party establishment; and State is filling the unexpired term of her late Treasurer Ernest Garfield, a conservative husband, is not seeking re-election. The but competent administrator who is em­ other two Republican incumbents, Rep. phasizing domestic issues in his campaign. Jack Edwards (1) and John Buchanan Jr. The successful GOP candidate is favor­ (6) are favored for re-election. Other ed to win the general election. The pri­ seats should remain Democratic. mary is September 12. STATE: Republicans are expected to maintain control Alaska of both houses of the legislature. PRESIDENTIAL: With the settlement of the Alaskan Native Land Claims dispute and De­ Arkansas partment of the Interior's approval of PRESIDENTIAL: If Wallace doesn't interfere - as he the Alaskan Pipeline, President Nixon's did in 1968 - Nixon should be the re­ chances of winning Alaska's three elec­ cipient of six electoral votes from Ar­ toral college votes are very good. As in kansas. Nixon narrowly edged out Hum­ a number of western and southern states, phrey for second place in Arkansas in Senator McGovern's views on the econ­ 1968. The Arkansas voters wiII not forget omy and defense are probably too lib­ busing at the polIs. eral for most Alaskans. SENATORIAL: Sen. John McClellan, 76, forced in­ SENATORIAL: With two-years seniority and with a to a runoff against Congressman David strong 1970 showing at the polls, Sen. H. Pryor, 37, won renomination despite Ted Stevens (R) is favored to beat the an Arkansas poll which indicated that

July, 1972 15 half the voters didn't know the mean­ Brathwaite (D) should become one ing of "seniority," McClellan's supposed of the two new black congresswomen source of strength. McClellan waged a this year. In the 38th C.D. former Con­ vigorous campaign despite his age and gressman George E. Brown, Jr. (D) who received a congratulatory phone call lost the Democratic senatorial nomination from the President after his victory. The to Sen. John Tunney in 1970, is highly fa­ Republican candidate, Wayne Babbitt, a vored to beat Ontario Mayor Howard J. North Little Rock veterinarian and a Snider (R) despite a bitter Democratic moderate, has little chance to go to Wash­ primary in the new district. In the 36th C. ington as a Senator. There is too much D., State Assemblyman William M. Ket­ latent support - Republican and other­ chum is a narrow favorite over Timothy wise - for McClellan. Lemucchi, a Bakersfield attorney, but Le­ GUBERNATORIAL: Gov. Dale Bumpers should also mucchi will be helped by the student have little trouble beating former State vote in Santa Barbara. Another key race Welfare Board Commissioner Len E. will be the 6th C.D. where Congressman Blaylock. It is largely a question of how William S. Mailliard (R), 54, is trying badly the Republican moderate will lose. for his 11th term but is in deep trouble because of his support for President Nix­ CONGRESSIONAL: Republicans are running only on on the War. Redistricting should one candidate in four districts, but he is have helped Mailliard, but he is running an incumbent, Congressman John Paul against former Democratic State Chair­ Hammerschmidt in the 3rd C.D. His op­ man Roger Boas, 50, who is articulate ponent, Guy W. Hatfield, 65, a retired and well-financed. In the 11 th C.D., the actor, has hit upon an interesting cam­ district being left by Congressman Pete paign tactic. Since his campaign man­ McCloskey, State Assemblyman Leo J. ager is a look-a-like, Hatfield uses him Ryan is highly favored over Republican as a stand-in so he can cover twice as Charles E. Chase, a very conservative at­ much territory. Hatfield has been en­ torney who beat a black Palo Alto city dorsed by Groucho Marx. councilman and a Redwood City en­ STATE: The key factor in the state legislative races gineer in the Republican primary. Mc­ this year will be black candidates in both Closkey is expected to win in the 12th. parties. There are currently no black leg­ In the 4200 C.D. State Sen. Clair W. islatol's, although the Republicans did run Burgener should beat Bob Lowe, a Dem­ black candidates in 1970. Two black Re­ ocrat. And in the 20th C.D., State As. pubiican candidates for the State Senate, semblyman Carlos J. Baker (R) is favor­ Ann,ie R. Zachary in Marvell and Sam ed to succeed Congressman H. Allen Sparks in Little Rock have good chances Smith (R) who is retiring. of election. In the Senate, 11 of the 35 STATE: The Republicans are now outnumbered 21 to seats will be contested by the GOP. In 19 in the State Senate and the State As­ the lower house, the Rev. M.L. Hendricks, sembly is 43 to 36 in favor of the Demo­ a black Republican minister, is running crats. Only half the seats in the Senate are against 'a white Democrat in a predom­ at stake and Republicans could split the inantly black district in Little Rock and Senate with the Democrats if Assem­ give~.a' good chance to win. Altogether, blyman Ernest La Coste (D) is beaten five bla,ck Republicans are running for by former Assemblyman Claire Berry­ the low.er house. Republicans are given hill (R). Two Republicans could be in a greater chance of success in legislative trouble but should win: State Sen. Milton races this year because single-member Marks and State Sen. John Nejedly. In districts will be used for the first time the Assembly, the Republicans could lose - a reform strongly opposed by Gov. their shirts if Nixon loses badly. Only Bumpers. 26 seats are safe or probable for the GOP. Five seats are "leaning" for the Repub­ California lican incumbents and five more are being PRESIDENTIAL: San Clemente's sometime resident vacated by Republican incumbents and may be in trouble in his native state this are marginal. Only four currently Dem­ year. Nixon could win without taking ocratic seats are in real danger from Re­ California's 45 electoral votes, but the publican challengers. The GOP legisla­ Democrats need the state to win and tive candidates may have trouble getting McGovern has a strong organization. money this year, but the legislative races Nixon beat Humphrey by about 4 per­ will be important for the California Re­ centage points in 1968, but increased publican Party. Democratic registration has more than made up the Minnesotan's 1968 vote de­ Colorado ficit. Gov. Ronald Reagan will be leading PRESIDENTIAL: Colorado has a strong economy and the Nixon charge. Nixon will be a strong candidate. He CONGRESSIONAL: California has picked up three took Colorado in 1960 and 1968 and new seats in redistricting. In the 37th should win the state's seven electoral C.D., State Assemblywoman Yvonne W. votes this year. There is a busing suit in-

16 Ripon Forum volving the state now in the courts. Gov­ At this wrItmg, nothing has. Suits and ernor John A. Love is heading the Nixon countersuits, court orders, legislative re­ re-election campaign. apportionment plans, court-ordered reap­ SENATORIAL: Sen. Gordon Allott's announcement portionment plans, and appeals leave the will be tantamount to re-election. A politicians and the voters perplexed about strong Nixon supporter and chairman of both Congress and the General Assembly. the Senate Republican Policy Committee, Nominating conventions have been post­ Allot got 58 percent of the vote in his poned pending court decisions on the last race. The Democratic candidate wiII redistricting mess. Whatever happens in be chosen in a September 12 primary. court, the voters are likely to elect the The leading candidates are former State same congressmen they did in 1970. Sen. Floyd Haskell, an ex-Republican, and Freshman Congressman Robert Steele State Sen. Anthony Vollack, 42. VolIack has made a favorable impression and is given the edge but the campaign hasn't should win re-election despite a Demo­ warmed up. cratic challenge by former State Depart­ CONGRESSIONAL: Environmentalists have target­ ment official Roger Hilsman. The other ed Congressman Wayne Aspinall, 76, as Republican incumbent Stewart McKin­ one of Congress's "Dirty Dozen" they ney, in the 4th C.D., has the most Repub­ would like to defeat. Although his dis­ lican district in the state. It wiII take trict was made less hospitable to a large-scale political explosions to blow Democratic candidate by redistricting, the the Democratic incumbents out of their chairman of the House Interior and In­ seats. sular Affairs Committee is favored to STATE: Over the last two years, the voters in Con­ retain his seat. In the new 5th C.D., necticut have grown pretty disgusted with however, State Sen. Majority Leader Bill their legislators - particularly in 1971 Armstrong, is expected to become the when the legislature approved an income third Republican congressman on the Col­ tax bilI which most of them hadn't read orado delegation. The district was al­ - only to later rescind the tax when most tailor-made for Armstrong. The faced with a "taxpayer revolt." The new other three incumbents - two Republi­ complexion of the presently Democrat­ cans and one Democrat - are expected ic legislature wiII depend on the redis­ to be returned to Washington. tricting plan approved. Two Republican STATE: There may be a few more Democrats in the judges came up with a plan favorable legislature after his year's court-ordered to the Republicans but it got thrown out redistricting, but the Republicans should on appeal - partly because the judges retain large majorities. forgot to include parts of a couple of towns. Democratic prospects have been improved by large-scale Democratic gains Connecticut in local elections in 1971. PRESIDENTIAL: If there's one thing certain about the "Land of Steady Habits" this year Delaware it's uncertainty. The courts, the legisla­ PRESIDENTIAL: President Nixon wiII capture Del­ ture, and the state party leaders have so aware's three electoral votes again this far been unable to redistrict either the November. The chairman of the Nixon six Connecticut congressional seats or the campaign is William R. Campbell Jr. General Assembly. Republican leaders are who managed Governor Russell Peter­ hopeful that President Nixon will carry son's campaign and who is a top aide to the state this year. He had also been ex­ John W. Rollins, a key Nixon fundraiser pected to carry the state in 1968, but and recently chairman of the nation­ Humphrey beat him by 6 percent. Con­ wide Salute to the President Dinners. necticut's eight electoral votes will be a Nixon is currently expected to do even tossup, and State Democratic Chairman' better than he did last time against any John Bailey's ability to produce Demo­ foreseeable Democratic nominee. cratic victories cannot be underestimated. SENATORIAL: Republican Senator J. Caleb Boggs, Popular Sen. Abraham Ribicoff helped is one of the most popular figures in the pull in Humphrey in 1968 and wiII be state and is at this stage almost certain out stumping for McGovern. Ribicoff to be returned for this third term. He was cited for a post in a McGovern ad­ won in 1966 with almost 60 percent of ministration, but he has rejected such the vote. His Democratic opponent will speculation. State Comptroller Nathan be New Castle County Counsel Joseph Agostinelli, who gained the President's ap­ R. Biden Jr., a rather smooth and eager proval for grabbing a Viet Cong flag from 29-year-old former Republican. an antiwar protestor, will be in charge GUBERNATORIAL: The real battle in Delaware will of Nixon's campaign. be in the gubernatorial race. Gov. Peter­ CONGRESSIONAL: As one judge considering the son has incurred the resentment of many state of Connecticut's congressional dis­ voters through two tax increases during tricts said, "Certainly, something should his first term, thus breaking a no-tax­ be done to straighten out this confusion." rise pledge he had made. Peterson came

litly, 1972 17 into office in 1969 with a reputation as an publican; and the 10th is considered a administrator and a civic leader, and he tossup. Cramer associate Jack Isco is ex­ has succeeded in thoroughly reorganizing pected to benefit from the strong ICY the government. Peterson is being chal­ (Isco-Cramer-Young) political machine lenged for the nomination by conserva­ in his bid for the 5th C.D. nomination. tive David P. Buckson of Dover, a former Otherwise, the makeup of the state's con­ state Attorney General and Lieutenant gressional delegation is expected to re­ Governor, who was the unsuccessful can­ main 9-3 for the Democrats. didate for Governor in 1964 and for the STATE: Both houses of the state legislature are up congressional nomination in 1970. Buck­ for re-election, but the large Democratic son has a good chance to force a pri­ majorities are not expected to change mary contest by getting the necessary until the Republicans field a strong gu­ 35 percent of the vote at the July 17 bernatorial candidate. Republican legisla­ State Republican Convention. The date tive races would be aided if the split be­ of the primary, originally set for Sep­ tween the Kirk faction and Republicans tember 9, may be changed. In their June led by State Party Chairman Tommy convention, the Democrats nominated Thomas were healed. Sherman W. Tribbitt, House Minority Leader and former Lieutenant Governor who made an unsuccessful run for Gov­ Georgia ernor in 1968. Peterson is likely to win PRESIDENTIAL: Georgia gave its 12 electoral votes the primary. A close Tribbitt-Peterson to Wallace in 1972. With Wallace in the race is e~pected. Democratic fold, Gov. Jimmy Carter has CONGRESSIONAL: The state's lone congressman, had good reason to lead the stop-Mc­ Republican Pierre S. "Pete" duPont, faces Govern movement. Nixon would be the no opposition from his own party and overwhelming favorite against the South will faee very little from the Democrats. Dakota Senator in a two-man race. Most Democratic candidates would be running STATE: Both houses of the state legislature are Re­ away from McGovern as a standard­ publican-controlled and are expected to bearer in Georgia. Busing will be im­ remain that way although there is some portant. Former Democrat John Ray will doubt about the House of Representa­ be in charge of the President's re-election tives. The Democratic Party is badly campaign. split and in recent years has not been able to take advantage of its registra­ SENATORIAL: Like several other Democratic South­ tion edge. ern Senators, David H. Gambrell is having a hard time this year with his fellow Dem­ ocrats. Although he is probably still the Florida frontrunner for the August 8 primary, PRESIDENTIAL: Florida has voted for Nixon in both Gambrell will be contesting 15 Demo­ 1960 and 1968. With McGovern as the crats including former Gov. Ernest Van­ Democratic standard-bearer, the Presi­ diver, heir-apparent to the Russell fam­ dent will be the overwhelming favorite ily; former State Treasurer Bill Burson, to pick up Florida's 17 electoral college whose office has been abolished; State votes. The party divisions which develop­ Rep. Sam Nunn, 33, a Wallace supporter ed during former Gov. Claude Kirk's gu­ who has won the endorsement of former bernatorial campaign in 1970 and former Gov. Marvin Griffin and the implied en­ Congressman William Cramer's senato­ dorsement of Lester Maddox who decided rial campaign the same year still have to sit this one out; and Hosea Williams, not healed. Kirk, however, is attempting an official of the Southern Christian Lead­ to mend his political fences in an attempt ership Conference. One man hedged his to make a comeback for the Statehouse bets and signed up for both primaries. in 1974. Busing will be a key issue A runoff, if necessary, will be August in the presidential campaign just as 29. Meanwhile, Republican Congressman it was in the Democratic primary. Kirk Fletcher Thompson, an arch-conservative picked up a few points by backing the who himself faces token primary opposi­ statewide straw vote opposing busing tion, is piloting his plane across the state, while Governor Reubin Askew (D) lost pulling out his bicycle, and making a voter backing with his more realistic strong bid for the Senate seat. Thompson stand against the referendum issue. Wal­ is a good campaigner - which Gambrell lace supporters are expected to jump on is not - and with a well-financed cam­ the Nixon campaign bus in 1972. paign he could be pulled into the Senate CONGRESSIONAL: Florida picked up three extra by a large Nixon win. Both Thompson congressional seats in redistricting this and the Democratic nominee will be out year, but candidates will not be selected beating buses to death this fall. until the September 9 primary. Of the CONGRESSIONAL: In five of Georgia's ten congres­ new districts, the 13th (northern Dade sional races, Republicans have filed no County) should lean Democratic; the 5th candidates. In two more, the Democratic (St. Petersburg-Orlando) will lean Re- incumbents will not be overexerted. In

18 Ripon Forum the 4th C.D., Congressman Ben Black­ inching left; and a young moderate, Dr. burn, (R), a strong Nixon supporter Glen Wigner, fresh from the White House should win easily as he has in: the past. staff. No front-runner has yet emerged In only two districts, the 5th and the in the wide open Democratic contest. 8th will there be real contest. Thomp­ CONGRESSIONAL: The three GOP candidates for son's 5th C.D. seat will be sought by McClure's 1st C.D. seat are State Senate Rodney Cook, a Republican moderate Majority Leader Wayne KidweU (the who narrowly lost the Atlanta mayoral­ most moderate), McClure's 1968 primary ty race and is favored now. The district opponent, businessman Robert Purcell is over 40 percent black and four Dem­ (evidently to Kidwell's right), and ultra­ ocrats, including the Rev. Andrew Young, rightist farmer Steven Symns. No major a black SCLC organizer, are seeking the issues have emerged; the outcome is too nomination. Cook could be helped by close to call. Two-term Republican Orval Nixon as could Macon GOP Mayor Hansen is safe in the 2nd District. Ronnie Thompson in the 8th C.D. He STATE: The predominately GOP state legislature will be challenging Congressman W. S. should stay that way, although Demo­ "Bill" Stuckey. cratic Governor Cecil Andrus is trying STATE: Both houses of the legislature are up for re­ to convince the electorate that Republi­ election but the Southern Strategy ap­ can intransigence is holding up his pro­ parently doesn't apply there yet. Repub­ grams. licans will continue to remain a rare leg­ islative animal in Georgia, though among their number are several of the most at­ Illinois tractive young moderates in the state's PRESIDENTIAL: Illinois' 26 electoral votes are now politics. slated to go to President Nixon. John Kennedy beat Nixon in the state in 1960 by an average of less than one vote Hawaii per precinct, many of them packaged by PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon received only 39 percent of Mayor Richard Daley. Although McGov­ the vote in 1968. His campaign for Ha­ ern will not get much help from Daley waii's four electoral votes is not expect­ this time, William Singer, the head of ed to be much more effective in 1972. the official Cook County delegation, will CONGRESSIONAL: U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink who was give Chicago Democrats wider ties. The unopposed for election in 1970, may face polls show the President well ahead as primary opposition from Democrats who usual, in preparation for a November cliff­ are closer to the hierarchy of the State hanger. Democratic Party than she. If Mrs. Mink SENATORIAL: Charles Percy, the progressive Repub­ is vulnerable, it will probably be ·in the lican senior Senator from Illinois, will Democratic primary October 7 rather be re-elected. His opponent, Roman than the November election when she "Pooch" Pucinski, is down almost two to will be opposed by State Rep. Diana one in the polls. Pucinski, a Congressman Hansen. The island's other congressman, from a safe Chicago district, ran at the Spark Matsunaga is likewise a strong fa­ request of Mayor Daley when everyone vorite for re-election. He will be chal­ else (including the Lieutenant Governor lenged by State Sen. Fred W. Rohlfing, and both of Adlai Stevenson's campaign 43, a progressive Republican. managers) wanted to run against Gov. STATE: Both houses are controlled by 2-1 Democratic Richard Ogilvie instead. "Pooch" is a re­ majorities and are likely to remain that formed liberal who followed his white way in the November elections. middle class district into a law and order stance. He can, and does, point to votes on both sides of the political spectrum. Idaho The name Pucinski is not a liability in PRESIDENTIAL: Although this conservative moun­ Illinois where tickets commonly include tain state elected its first Democratic Gov­ Rostenkowski, Derwinski, Kluczynski and ernor in a quarter-century in 1970, Nixon Kucharski. Pucinski's primary opponent should easily take this state's four elec­ was Dakin Williams, whose only apparent toral votes again, regardless of the Dem­ qualification, platform, and source of ocratic opponent. publicity was brother Tennessee. SENATORIAL: Len B. Jordan is one of the two Re­ Senator Percy's campaign style has im­ publican senators retiring this year; the proved enormously in the eight years August 8 primary contest to succeed him since he was defeated for Governor. He is hot on both sides. There are several an­ can present his position on the ABM or nounced GOP candidates, including the SST (he led the floor fight against it) distinguished former Governor Robert E. to a group of businessmen and leave them Smylie, whose three-term reign earned cheering. He is running a hard, well­ him broad support; rightist former Con­ financed campaign. Pucinski will narrow gressman George Hansen; conservative the margin as he builds name recogni­ Congressman James A. McClure, who is tion and as the voters as usual revert to

July, 1972 19 party voting patterns with the approach percent. Ogilvie is a fine Governor and of election day. Nevertheless, Percy need has never lost an election, even in Cook make no plans to move his family from County, and he has always started as an Washington. underdog. Walker is intellectually shal­ GUBERNATORIAL: Gov. Ogilvie, on the other low and lacks relevant experience. But hand, is in deep trouble. He is an ex­ without a strong national swing to the cellent Governor, combining a blend GOP, Walker must be favored. of pragmatism and idealism that makes CONGRESSIONAL: Under the court-ordered reap­ him difficult to place on a liberal-con­ portionment plan, Chicago lost two dis­ servative spectrum. He has brought to tricts and the suburbs gained two. In one Springfield a new type of young, bright of the new suburban Chicago Districts, dedicated official and has introduced a the 3rd C.D., Robert F. Hanrahan (R) broad series of reforms. But he also begat 37, former Cook County School Super­ the state income tax. He does not con­ intendent, is running an antibusing cam­ trol the evenly-divided, easily-corrupted paign against Democrat Daniel J. Coman, State Legislature, and this has made it a Daley supporter. Hanrahan is given the impossible to carry through important edge. In the 7th C.D. in Chicago from reforms in judge selection and personal which Congressman Pucinski is current­ property taxes or to fully implement the ly the representative, Congressman Frank new state constitution. Annunzio (D), a reapportionment victim There were two Democratic Primaries is in a tight battle with Chicago Alder­ for Governor. The first was fought in man John J. Hoellen, who lost narrow­ the Sherman House, the sanctum of the ly to Pucinski in 1966 and 1968. Demo­ Chicago Democratic Party. Tom Foran, cratic Congressman Abner Mikva reloc­ prosecutor of the Chicago Seven, rep­ ated in the suburbs when his Chicago resented law, order and the prevalence district was eliminated. A liberal, with a of the Irish in Chicago politics. He splurg­ 100 percent COPE rating and three la­ ed on billboards downtown so as to be bor organizers in his campaign, Mikva visible to the Mayor. His opponent was is favored against Samuel H. Young, a Paul Simon, downstater, reformer and conservative, though it is Young's ter­ author of books on subjects like Catholic­ ritory. In the 21st C.D., from which Con­ Protestant marriages. Simon was elected gressman William L. Springer is retiring, Lieutenant Governor in 1968, running an State Rep. Edward R. Madigan (R) amazing 350,000 votes ahead of the in­ and Champaign County District Attorney cumbent Democratic Governor. He had Lawrence E. Johnson are locked in a presided over the State Senate without close race on account of new voters at any visible rift with Daley but also with­ the University of Illinois campus in out, it was felt, any real tarnish in his Champaign-Urbana. Normally, it's a Re­ reform image. Only Daley's vote count­ publican district, so Madigan has the ed in that one and Foran was the loser. edge. Another possible change could come The other primary was fought over in the 22nd C.D. where Congressman 1,20.0 dusty downtown highways. Dan George E. Shipley (D) has been redis­ Walker, whose Walker Report called the tricted into an even more Republican dis­ 1968 Democratic Convention disturbance trict and could be vulnerable to Robert a "police riot," could not expect the vote Lamkin (R). at the Sherman House (he had been Ad­ STATE: Due to vacancies, neither party has a major­ lai's campaign manager until the detente ity in the legislature at present. The out­ with Daley; then it was Foran and come of the legislative elections may very Walker in that order), so he went to the well depend on how well Gov. Olgivie voters. Borrowing from Florida, he tramp­ fares in his downstate re-election cam­ ed the state. The newspapers and tel­ paign. evision stations, always short of local items, reported his approach, his arrival, Indiana and his departure. They covered not his politics but his geography. By the end of PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon is the favorite and McGov­ the summer everyone knew Walker and ern may be the "issue" in the contest for no one seemed to connect him with the Indiana's 13 electoral votes. The Indiana report. Even so, smart money was on Democratic primary was won by Hum­ Simon, with the important newspaper en­ phrey and a voided by McGovern. Will dorsements, the Daley machine in Cook H. Hays] r., former mayor of Crawfords­ County, and downstate residence and ex­ ville, will be in charge of the President's posure. Walker's campaign manager was re-election effort. Nixon ran well in the criticized for dishonesty when he releas­ state in both 1960 and 1968. ed polls just before the March primary GUBERNATORIAL: Dr. Otis R. Bowen, 54, the showing his candidate in the lead, but the highly regarded speaker of the House of polls were right and Simon was the loser. Representatives for four sessions, won the Now no one doubts the polls, and they Republican nomination to succeed Gov. give Walker 67 percent to Ogilvie's 30 Edgard D. Whitcomb, who is ineligible

20 Ripon F Mum r

for another term. Bowen, who is known challenging MiIJer. So long as every­ as a legislative authority and proponent thing's OK down on the farm, Miller of state tax reform, got the June conven­ will be the heavy favorite. tion nomination despite the support for GUBERNATORIAL: Two-term incumbent Gov. Rob­ Circuit Court Judge William T. Sharp ert D. Ray (R) avoided a primary against from Whitcomb and National Commit­ Lt. Gov. Roger Jepsen (R) when Jepsen teeman L. Keith Bulen. The general withdrew from the race in May. Their t:'lection wiIJ be a toss up between Bowen cooperation in the legislature despite their and former Gov. Matthew E. Welch, bitter personal feelings should aid Ray's (D), 59, who won election in 1960 fall campaign. Ray is the favorite to de­ while Nixon was carrying the state. fend his post against the winner of a Welch is given the edge by most media Democratic primary between former Statt:' analysts but Republican politicians are Treasurer Paul Franzenburg and State hopeful of a Bowen win. The strong state­ Sen. John Tapscott, a relatively unknown wide GOP ticket is counterbalanced by liberal. A close race is anticipated be­ an equaIJy strong statewide Democratic tween Ray and Franzenburg with the ticket so ticket splitting wiIJ hurt the Re­ edere to the incumbent. The outcome is publicans. im~ortant because it wiJI have a strong CONGRESSIONAL: Almost all of the incumbents on bearing on the fate of Nixon, Milkr, and Indiana's five Democrat/six Republican GOP legislative aspirants. congressional delegation are favored for re-election but there could be some close CONGRESSIONAL: The most interesting race wiII bt:' in the new fourth C.D. where both con­ contests. Congressman Earl F. Landgrebe servative Republican Congressman John in the 2nd C.D. had a tough primary Kyl and liberal Democratic Neal Smith campaign against State Rep. Richard A. Boehning but should win re-election. In have been redistricted into the same dis­ trict. Because of the Democratic lean­ the 4th C.D. Congressman J. Edward Roush is favored for a second term. The ings of Des Moines, Smith is favored. Tht:' contest was caused by the reduction of chances of Allan Bloom, the conservative Iowa's delegation from seven to six Republican challenger to Roush, probab­ members. Congressman Fred Schwengel, ly depend on Republican unity in the Iowa's most progressive Republican rep­ district. Bloom defeated former Indiana resentative, will be in for a stiff fight in the Secretary of State William N. Salin in 1st C.D. Two Democratic are contest­ the May 2 primary. Congressman Andrew Jacobs (D) in the 11th C.D. could be ing for the fight to run against Schwen­ rrel. One of them, a college professor who troubled by redistricting which has add­ beat Schwengel in 1964, is trying for a ed more Republican strongholds to his district. The Republican candidate, tht:' rematch, as is Edward Mezvinsky who lost narrowly to Schwengel in 1970. Be­ Rev. William Hudnut, will need to re­ cause of the addition of several thousand unite the Party after his recount victory State University of Iowa students to the over former State Sen. Daniel L. Burton, district, Schwengel wiIJ probably be tht:' a conservative. underdog. The other three Republicans STATE: Republicans now have control over both and Culver should win re-election. houses and have fielded a good crop STATE: State Sen. Arthur Neu is running against of legislative candidates. There will be a large turnover in incumbents in both House Speaker William Harbor for the parties however, due to retirements Republican nomination for Lieutenant and o~her changes, so the Republican Governor. Harbor, a conservative, leads, chances of maintaining control are prob­ but Neu, a moderate, is gaining. Republi­ lematical. cans are favored for most lesser state offices and the heavily Republican leg­ Iowa islature will remain that way as long as tht:' men at the top run well. PRESIDENTIAL: High food prices may hurt Nixon elsewhere in the country, but Iowa is farm country and Iowans seem to have Kansas decided that Secretary of Agriculture PRESIDENTIAL: Four years ago, Nixon captured Earl Butz isn't so bad after all. Nixon the votes of 55 percent of Kansas cit­ should pick up Iowa's eight electoral izens. Wichita banker, Robert Gadberry votes unless farm prices coIJapse or he will head the President's re-election ef­ runs a "Southern Strategy" campaign. fort, which is expected to win this nor­ SENATORIAL: Well-financed and weII-organized, maIJy Republican state's seven electoral Senator Jack Miller is headed for his votes. third term in the Senate. MiIJer wiIJ be SENATORIAL: Moderate Republican James B. Pear­ opposed by Richard C. Clark, a former son, seeking a third term in the Senate, aide to Congressman John C. Culver (D). wiJI defeat his young unknown GOP op­ Both Culver and controversial FCC mem­ ponent, Harlan D. House, and win in ber Nicholas Johnson decided against November. As of this writing, Pearson

lltly, 1972 21 does not have a Democratic opponent. It liability. Nunn and Huddleston both have had been widely assumed that Governor extensive experience as campaign man­ Robert Docking would try for Pear­ agers for others, but while Nunn is a son's seat, but he has decided to play conservative, Huddleston is a strong dove. it safe and go for an unprecedented fourth Nunn will have to generate his own per­ term. State Attorney General Vern Mil­ sonal organization because Kentucky Re­ ler also has decided to run for re-elec­ publicans are low on both organization tion, rather than challenge Pearson. There and registered party members. are rumors that John Schnittker, a for­ CONGRESSIONAL: Most members of Kentucky's mer Assistant Secretary of the U.S. De­ seven man Congressional delegation are partment of Agriculture will step in to favored to gain easy re-election. The 5 to the race. 2 split in favor of the Democrats should GUBERNATORIAL: The Democratic Party, with Rob­ be continued. However, in the 3rd C.D., ert Docking as the nominee, seems likely to Congressman Roman L. Mazzoli, 39, may retain possession of the State House. The be vulnerable if McGovern fares disas­ probable Republican candidates include trously in the Louisville area. Mazzoli Lt. Governor Reynolds Schultz a rela­ wilI be opposed by Phil Kaelin Jr., 34, tively conservative and unexciting can­ who crushed a black Louisville attorney, didate, and former Governor John An­ James Crumlin, in the May primary. In derson, Jr. (1962-4) who, although he has the 6th C.D. where the Democratic in­ had an eight-year "layoff," still has some cumbent is not seeking re-election, the enemies in the state. Anderson is given Democrats are favored to send respect­ a very slight edge in the Republican ed Lexington lawyer, John Breckinridge, August 1 primary, and he would be to Congress. Breckinridge, whose famous the toughest candidate for Docking. Southern heritage is no handicap, will CONGRESSIONAL: The only Democrat in the five­ run against Laban Jackson, a conserva­ man Kansas congressional delegation, tive former Democrat. William H. Roy, is likely to be returned to the House, after deciding not to op­ pose Senator Pearson. He will probably Louisiana run against Republican National Com­ PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon ran second to Wallace in mittee Chairman, Senator Bob Dole in 1968 and got less than 24 percent of 1974. The four incumbent Republicans Louisiana's vote. Although Louisiana's are considered to be safe. delegation to the Democratic National STATE: Both the State Senate and House of Repre­ Convention is heavily pro-McGovern, the sentatives are heavily Republican and state is expected to be another lO-vote, will remain so. "Southern Strategy" victory for the Pres­ ident in a McGovern-Nixon contest. Kentucky SENATORIAL: Republicans didn't even bother put­ PRESIDENTIAL: Kentucky Republicans are under­ ting up candidates to run for the Senate in standably ecstatic about the nomination 1966 or 1968. Republican National Com­ of Sen. McGovern as the Democratic mitteeman Tom Stagg will be running in presid!mtial nominee. Nixon was favored 1972, but it won't make much difference. to win the state's electoral votes, any­ The real contest is in the August 19 Dem­ way, but a McGovern candidacy would ocratic primary where octogenarian Sen. insure a GOP victory. Although the Allen J. Ellender may well be dum~ed leadership of the Nixon state campaign by State Sen. J. Bennett Johnston of is undetermined, the President's election Shreveport. Johnston lost the 1971 Dem­ efforts will probably be directed from in­ ocratic gubernatorial nomination by less side the camp of Republican Senate as­ than one percent of the vote and is con­ pirant Louis Nunn, a former Governor. sidered a "New South" moderate. The The GOP presidential campaign head­ race is now a tossup. quarters will be in Lexington rather than CONGRESSIONAL: Not all of the state's eight Dem­ LouisvilIe - in the same building as the ocratic congressmen are running for re­ Nunn campaign headquarters. election, but that doesn't mean any Re­ SENATORIAL: With the aid of a strong primary publicans have a chance in Louisiana. showing by Nunn and an ineffective cam­ paign thus far by his Democratic rival, Maine State Sen. Majority leader Walter "Dee" Huddleston, the former Republican gov­ PRESIDENTIAL: Humphrey got a convincing 55 per­ ernor has become the campaign favorite cent of the vote in 1968 in Maine, but to succeed retiring Republican John Sher­ Muskie was his running mate. With Nix­ man Cooper. Both Nt:.!ln and Huddleston on facing a George McGovern candi­ defeated five-man primary fields with dacy this year, he is the clear favorite two thirds of their Party's vote but to pick up Maine's four electoral votes. Huddleston's association with Governor Portland businessman Ned Hardy will be Wendell H. Ford is beginning to be a directing the Nixon campaign. The Pres-

22 Ripon Forum ,

ident could be hurt by Maine's high un­ door-to-door campaign with an extensive employment rate but Down East is basic­ organization of young volunteers to win ally conservative and McGovern's -liberal­ a narrow victory. Moderate Republicans ism will probably be a bit much. lost a third seat, however, when GOP SENATORIAL: In an age of high-priced campaigns, National Committeeman Cyril Joly oust­ Sen. Margaret Chase Smith spent $8,000 ed State Sen. Harvey Johnson in a new­ to defeat the ambitious former Boston ly-redistricted area. State chairman for attorney, Robert Monks, who spent at Goldwater in 1964 and former Chairman least $250,000. Mrs. Smith was widely of the State GOP, Joly, has said that if advertised in the press to be in deep po­ you're liberal, you might as well be a litical trouble - and in danger of fail­ Democrat. ing to either Monks or Congressman William D. Hathaway in November. She Maryland handed Monks a convincing defeat by a PRESIDENTIAL: Maryland's ten electoral votes are 2 to 1 margin, thanks partly to the strong now favored to go to Nixon. He lost the turnout by Maine's senior citizens for state narrowly to Humphrey in 1968 (42 the 74-year-old incumbent. Hathaway will to 44 percent), but in the May presiden­ be a strong candidate and Mrs. Smith tial primary, McGovern garnered only 22 may be hurt by her age and the stag­ percent of the vote and did well only nated condition of the state's economy, in Montgomery County, while Wallace but she will be the November favorite. carried the state. So barring a dramatic Although famed for her independence, she has emphasized her close relation­ change in the war, Nixon should do well. ship with Nixon. The voters recently He's on the right side of the busing con­ troversy for most Maryland voters. abolished the "Big Box," a straight-party ballot mechanism which the Republi­ CONGRESSIONAL: The outcomes of two congres­ cans opposed and which had workpd to sional races in Maryland may be deter­ Democratic advantage. With the expect­ mined by how well the President runs ed strong Nixon-Smith showing, the re­ in the state. If Nixon runs well, the 5-3 form may have come a year too soon lineup in Congress in favor of the Dem­ for the Republicans. ocrats may be reversed. The key districts are in the new 4th C.D. where Anne CONGRESSIONAL: In the 1st C.D., department store Arundel County Clerk, Marjorie S. executive Robert Porteous will contest Hilt, an anti-busing moderate, is run­ the election of Congressman Peter N. P. ning against Democrat Werner H. Fomos. K yros (D). K yros is seeking his fourth Fornos is favored for the seat. The Chair­ term and will be favored over the con­ man of the House Merchant Marine servative Porteous, who is a fonner state Committee, Edward A. Garmatz, (D) legislator, but the incumbent has been who was redistricted into the 3rd C.D. hurt by the revelation that he was in­ lost a primary battle to Congressman volved in a hit-and-run accident in Wash­ Paul Sarbanes (D), who two years earlier ington. A strong Nixon win could elect had defeated George Fallon, Chairman of Porteous. In the 2nd C.D., progressive the House Public Works Committee. In Bangor Mayor William Cohen, 31, de­ the 6th C.D. Congressman Goodloe E. feated his conservative Republican op­ Byron (D) will have stiff opposition from ponent, Abbot O. Greene, and will meet State Senator Edward Mason, a Re­ State Sen. Elmer Violette (D) in Novem­ J. publican moderate. Byron's predecessors ber. Cohen began his primary campaign include not only his mother and father, with low voter recognition but is now but also Maryland Republican Senators given a good chance of beating Violette, Charles Mathias and Glenn Beall, Jr. whose name recognition stems from his J. 1966 campaign against Mrs. Smith. STATE: Both houses of the state legislature are Re­ Massachusetts publican-controlled and both are up PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon won only one-third of the for election. Republican control may be vote in 1968, and although he will un­ threatened in the Senate where the Re­ doubtedly do better this year, he won't publicans were hurt by redistricting, but make the 50 percent mark. Indicative of the GOP should retain command of the the importance the Committee to Re-elect House. In the J Ime primary, two mod­ the President is giving Massachusetts is erate Republican candidates ousted con­ the fact that the Nixon state campaign servative Republican incumbents. Har­ chairman has yet to be selected. rison L. Richardson, a former majority SENATORIAL: In June, the Democratic state con­ leader in the House who opposed Nixon vention endorsed Middlesex County Dis­ in 1968, ousted State Sen. Robert Moore, trict Attorney John J. Droney to op­ a Sacco conservative. In the Winthrop pose incumbent Republican Edward W. area, young Atty. Jerrold Speers un­ Brooke. However, Droney will face op­ seated State Sen. George Chick. The position in the Democratic primary in moderate Speers combined an aggressive, September from Boston City Councillor

}ttly, 1972 23 Gerald F. O'Learv. The reluctance of all district, with McDonald the stronger can­ leading Democrat~ to oppose Brooke af­ didate in the primary. Marvin Esch's dis­ firms his current image of invincibility. trict is marginal. Guy Vander Jagt, Ed­ CONGRESSIONAL: Two Republican Congressmen, F. ward Hutchinson and Elford Cederberg Bradford Morse, who has been appointed had to move their residences, and Hut­ Under-Secretary of the United Nations, chinson may have a primary fight. The and Hastings Keith wiJI not be on the only bright spot: Democrat James O'Hara ballot in November, and the GOP may has a more suburban district and may lose both seats. Gerry E. Studds won 49 have a stiff GOP challenge from young percent of the vote against Keith in 1970 state legislator David Sarotkin. and will probably defeat former Repub­ STATE: Democrats narrowly control the House; the lican State Sen. William D. Weeks. Senate is split 19-19. Reapportionment Seeking Brad Morse's seat is a clutch of helped the Democrats, but they will be candidates, with anti-war veteran John challenging strong incumbent Republicans F. Kerry leading the charge - moving in some districts. Outlook is for little into the district the day after Morse's change in the House, but with possible appointment and announcing his candi­ Democratic control of the Senate, making dacy a week later. The McGovern ma­ life even more difficult for GOP Gov. chine may get him the nomination, par­ William Milliken. ticularly if the two State Representatives from Lowell, John J. Desmond, Chairman of the House Social Welfare committee Minnesota and Paul J. Sheehy who is on the PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon lost Humphrey's home state Ways and Means Committee, remain in 1968 and received only 42 percent in the race. Paul W. Cronin, who has of the vote. In 1972, a McGovern-Nixon served both as a congressional assistant race for Minnesota's 10 electoral votes to Morse and as a State Representative, will be a toss up. McGovern has a good wiJI be the Republican nominee, but will statewide organization but the zeal of have a tough race. Another up-hill bat­ his delegates in pushing through a lib­ tle faces State Representative Martin A. eral platform at the State Democratic Linsky, Assistant Republican Leader in Convention upset many Democrats and the House, who is challenging Congress­ may hurt their presidential candidate in man Robert Drinan. November. (The Republican State Con­ STATE: The campaign to elect Republicans to the vention, apparently reacting to the earlier Democratic fight, rejected a number of legislature, called SAVE for Sustain A (gubernatorial) VEto, may be unable to liberal planks to their own proposed plat­ capture the goal of one-third of the seats form.) One key element in a McGovern­ in the House of Representatives, unless Nixon contest would be the support given Governor Francis W. Sargent changes his McGovern by Senator Humphrey. The attitude about the Party and decides to President's campaign wiJI be run by campaign for Republican candidates in former GOP National Committeewoman the fall, as he has belatedly indicated he Rhoda Lund and John Mooty, former will do. state party vice-chairman. SENATORIAL: The Rev. Phil Hansen has the un­ Michigan enviable Republican task of opposing PRESIDENTIAL: The most heavily organized labor the state's senior Sen. Walter Mondale. state, where Republican presidential can­ Hansen will be a long shot. Hansen is didates have rarely run well, Michigan cast as a Nixon supporter in his aggres­ seems little different for Nixon, though sive campaign and has a good young cam­ a strong. race by Sen. Robert Griffin, plus paign staff. He may have difficulty rais­ the work of an able, but under-financed ing campaign funds, however, Republi­ Republican organization will give him cans in Minnesota fared badly in state­ some chance. Jack Gibbs, a longtime par­ wide elections in 1968 and 1970. ty activist, is managing the Nixon cam­ CONGRESSIONAL: The Minnesota congresssional paign. delegation is currently split 4 to 4 between SENATORIAL: Senate GOP Whip Griffin, in his first the two parties, and one seat for each re-election bid, has improved his position party is considered pivotal this year. In from last fall by becoming a strong, vocal the 7th C.D., State Rep. Jon Haaven anti-busing advocate. He would now have (R) is running against freshman Con­ to be considered the slight favorite against gressman Bob Bergland (D). Bergland is colorless Democratic Attorney General given the edge but Haaven is young, Frank Kelley. Though Michigan voters knowledgeable and articulate and may frequently split their tickets, a poor Nix­ pull an upset. In the 6th C.D., Congress­ on showing could hurt Griffin. man John Zwach (R) is favored to win CONGRESSIONAL: A recent court-ordered re-dis­ re-election over his 28-year-old chaIIeng­ tricting plan has caused chaos among Re­ er, State Rep. Rick Nolan. All other in­ publicans. Incumbents Jack McDonald cumbents are favored. and William Broomfield are in the same STATE: The key races for the Minnesota Republican

24 Ripon Forum Party are in the legislature this year. The mary over St. Louis Prosecuting Atty. legislature is nonpartisan but its conser­ Gene McNary. The Democratic field to vative and liberal caucuses correspond succeed Gov. Warren E. Hearnes includes closely to the Republican and Democratic Lt. Gov. William Morris, Rearnes' hand­ parties. Redistricting has given the Dem­ picked successor; St. Louis Atty. Edward ocrats a strong advantage although the Dow, who lost the nomination for Lieu­ conservatives now control both houses. tenant Governor to Morris four years ago; Both houses could be controlled by the "Walking" Joe Teasdale, the prosecuting liberal caucuses after the November elec­ attorney from Kansas City who would tion. like to imitate Dan Walker's walkathon victory in neighboring Illinois; and Earl Blackwell, the leader of the anti-Rearnes Mississippi conservative Democrats. The Democratic PRESIDENTIAL: If there ever was such a place as disarray should make Bond's chances of "Wallace Country," this is it (64 percent beating Morris, the Democratic favorite, in 1968). If the Alabama Governor's in­ good in November. juries keep him from campaigning, the CONGRESSIONAL: The congressional delegation of Southern Strategy may well payoff with nine Democrats and one Republican is this state's 7 electoral votes. likely to remain that way. Bircher Rep. SENATORIAL: The 67-year old Chairman of the Sen­ Durward Hall (R) wiII probably be re­ ate Judiciary Committee, James O. East­ placed by GOP National Committeeman land, routed two rivals for the Democratic Gene Taylor. In the 6th C.D., where in­ nomination, piling up almost 70 percent cumbent W.R. Hull, Jr. (D) is also re­ of the vote in the June 6 primary, and tiring, the seat is likely to continue to is expected to have little trouble with be occupied by a Democrat. his GOP opponent, Gilbert Cannichael, STATE: Republican chances of winning the Lieuten­ who beat black civil rights activist James ant Governorship with Joseph Badarac­ H. Meredith for the nomination. co, president of the St. Louis Board of CONGRESSIONAL: Three of the five J')emocratic in­ Aldermen, are good if Bond makes a cumbents from Mississippi are retiring. strong showing. Attorney General Jack Nine Democrats sought the seat of re­ Danforth, another popular Republican, is tiring Congressman Thomas G. Aberna­ also favored, but Republicans are partic­ thy in the 2nd C.D. In the June 27, run­ ularly anxious to win the key post of off, David R. Bowen, 39, the former co­ State Treasurer. Republican popularity ordinator for federal-state relations, de­ at the top of the ticket will not be enough feated Tom Cook, the former superin­ to carry a Republican legislature, how­ tendent of the state penitentiary, for the ever, and the legislature will likely re­ Democratic nomination to run against Re­ tain its heavy Democratic majorities. publican Carl Butler, a progressive college professor. In the 4th C.D., State Sen. Montana Ellis B. Bodron, who is blind, edged out State Rep. Walter Brown in runoff PRESIDENTIAL: Although there is no active cam­ for the Democratic nomination. Thad paign in this state yet, President Nixon Cochran, 34, a Jackson attorney, is the seems certain to repeat his '68 victory Republican candidate. In the 5th C.D., the and pick up 4 electoral votes. seat of retiring Rouse Rules Committee SENATORIAL: Democratic Senator Lee Metcalf easi­ Chairman William M. Colmer is being ly won his primary and is likely to win sought by Colmer's administrative assis­ his third Senate term over State Senator tant, Trent Lott, who became a Repub­ Henry S. Hibbard, who defeated three lican for the race. The Democratic nom­ others to win the Republican nomination. inee was determined in another runoff, GUBERNATORIAL: One-term Democratic Governor as State Sen. Ben Stone defeated Chan­ Forest H. Anderson has declined to run cery Court Judge Howard L. Patterson. for re-election for health reasons, but as Democrats are stilI favored for congres­ of now it appears that a Democrat will sional elections in Mississippi. still occupy the Executive Mansion next year. The Democratic nomination went Missouri to the current Lieutenant Governor, PRESIDENTIAL: Missouri's twelve electoral votes Thomas L. Judge, who defeated State wilI probably go to Nixon in a Nixon­ Senate Majority Leader Richard Dzivi McGovern contest. The Republican Par­ in the June 6th primary. Three term ty in the state is in much better shape State Representative and rancher, Ed than in previous years and Nixon will Smith, was elected the Republican nom­ be helped by the presence of a strong inee for Governor, defeating the state's GOP ticket for state offices. Fish and Game Director, Frank Dunkle. GUBERNATORIAL: State Auditor Christopher "Kit" CONGRESSIONAL: Freshman GOP Congressman Bond, 34, is favored to win the Repub­ Richard C. Shoup is in trouble. The man lican nomination in the August 8 pri- he defeated last time for the 1st C.D.

July, 1972 25 seat, five-term incumbent Arnold Olsen, When he does, he will face September is on the verge of making a successful 5 primary opposition from James H. BiI­ comeback, having himself defeated ex­ bray a Las Vegas attorney and Universi­ State Public Instruction Superintendent ty of Nevada regent. The conservative Harriet Miller in the Democratic Con­ Baring usually has more trouble with pri­ gressional primary. maries than he does wi th the general STATE: The Senate is Democratic; the House is nar­ election. Baring has been marked for des­ rowly controlled by the Republicans; at truction by environmentalists as one of this point it does not appear that the Congress's "Dirty Dozen," but, unfortuna­ November election will shift control in tely, he's a hardy politician. either chamber. STATE: The lower house of the Nevada legislature is now controlled by Republicans and the Nebraska upper house is now controlled by Dem­ ocrats. It's too early to predict the new PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon, the Nebraska winner in both legislature's composition. 1968 and 1960, should again be the easy winner of 5 electoral votes, but Mc­ Govern's state organization is strong and New Hampshire he defeated Humphrey in the Democratic primary. The Nixon campaign will be PRESIDENTIAL: Although Nixon is expected to pre­ headed by George Cook, a Lincoln bank­ vail easily in N.H., all political races this er, but will include representatives from year will test the impact of major demog­ each of the major factions of the state raphic changes occurring in the state Republican Party. since 1968. The population has increased by 50,000, mostly in the south central SENATORIAL: Sen. Carl T. Curtis, 66, will prevail area oriented toward Massachusetts jobs, against State Sen. Terry M. Carpenter, markets and media, and mostly beyond 72, but he should have a stiff fight in the reach of the addlepated right-wing the process. Carpenter has been in and Manchester Union Leader, New Hamp­ out of the office and in and out of the shire's only statewide paper and one of Democratic Party for 40 years. The mav­ the state's major political forces. erick Democrat was once a Republican and has the distinction of being kicked SENATORIAL: Although Senator Thomas Mcintyre is out of the 1956 Republican National Con­ expected to defeat any GOP opponent, a vention for nominating a phony can­ lively race has erupted for the Repub­ didate for vice president. The eccentric, lican nomination. Most attractive is Mar­ but dovish, Carpenter defeated an avow­ shall Cobleigh, the volatile, fun-loving ed liberal, University of Nebraska econ­ and effective speaker of the New Hamp­ omist Wallace C. Peterson in the primary. shire House of Representatives. Described CONGRESSIONAL: All three Republican incum­ by the Union Leader as "the Little Dic­ bents are favored. Freshman Congressman tator," "Mighty Marshall," and "Der Charles Thone squeaked out a victory Speaker," Cobleigh carried the ball on in 1970, but soundly defeated Kathy the Governor's controversial tax reform Braeman, 31, a women's rights activist, measure last session. New Hampshire is and Lester Lamm, 43, a Lutheran min­ currently the nation's only state without ister in the primary. Thone will face an­ either an income or a sales tax and the other minister, Methodist Democrat Dar­ Union Leader, together with most voters, rel E. Berg, in the general election. would like to keep it that way. His two opponents, both close to the Union Lead­ STATE: Half of Nebraska's nonpartisan, unicameral er, are David Brock, a former U.S At­ legislature is up for election this year, torney, and former Governor Wesley but the lobbyists, who are more power­ Powell, currently the evident favorite of ful, aren't up and they're mostly Repub­ both the newspaper and a possible plu­ lican. rality of the voters in a three-way race. If Powell is nominated many Republican Nevada officials across the state, conservative and PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon got 48 percent of Nevada's moderate alike, will root for McIntyre. presidential vote in 1968 and is again the An unknown quantity in the race is favorite to pick up Nevada's three elec­ Peter Boras, a well-to-do greeting card toral votes. McGovern has not yet fielded manufacturer, who headed the spectacu­ a strong organization in the state. One larly successful Agnew write-in in the of the key issues thiil faIl could be the March primary. federal crime strike force which Las GUBERNATORIAL: Governor Walter Peterson (R) Vegas gambling industry sees as a threat. over Roger Crowley (D) by a narrow Busing has also arrived in Nevada where margin is the most likely outcome. Re­ Clark County schools in southern Nevada flecting the general pattern of two party have received a court busing order. politics in the state, the Republican is a CONGRESSIONAL: Congressman Walter Baring (D) moderate while Crowley is a right wing has not yet announced for re-election. Democrat with the support of the Union

26 Ripon Forum. ,.

Leader. Peterson is expected to defeat the gat ion may occur as a result. State Sen. Union Leader challenge in the GOP from Matthew Rinaldo, the conservative cam­ one-time Wallacite Meldrim Thompson, paign manager for Nelson Gross's inept who lost narrowly to Peterson in 1970 and Republican Senate campaign two years then ran on the American Independence ago, will run against Democrat Jerry Party ticket. The other possible Peterson English in the 12th C.D. The edge for opponent is Robert C. Hill, recently re­ that seat, from which veteran Congress­ signed as U.S. Ambassador to Spain, who woman Florence P. Dwyer (R) is retiring, has received so little support thai he is goes to Rinaldo, although Mrs. Dwyer is currently prospecting for a job on the reported unhappy over her Republican Committee to Re-elect the President. He successor. In the new 13th C.D. in Mor­ also may enter the Senate race. ris County, State Sen. Joseph Maraziti, STATE: The State Legislature, which is about two a conservative, defeated two moderate op­ thirds GOP in each House, will remain ponents in the primary and is expected overwhelmingly Republican, although the to win in the general election. One con­ Democrats may make some gains in the gressman will not return. Congressman Southern part of the state. A major ef­ Peter Cornelius Gallagher, now under fort is under way to recruit younger can­ federal indictment for what he says is didates this year in the belief that the an FBI frameup, was trounced in the nation-leading average age of the current 14th C.D. Democratic primary by fellow legislators has not led to great displays Congressman Dominick Daniels. Former of legislative wisdom and sagacity. Among State Sen. Milton A. Waldor, 46, a pro­ the most upwardly mobile incumbent Re­ gressive Republican, has a good chance publicans are Representative Kim Zachos, to beat Congressman Joseph G. Minish one of the first White House Fellows and· in the 11 th C.D. Redistricting has hurt chairman of the House Judiciary Com­ Minish, who might be further hur~ by mittee, Senator David Nixon, one of the a strong Nixon-Case showing. Other in­ state's most respected young political cumbents are expected to be returned. leaders, and Senator C. Robertson Trow­ ':'he recent indictment of State Secretary bridge, Chairman of the Public Works of State Paul J. Sherwin, a top aide to Committee and Editor of the old Fanners Governor William T. Call:]! ~R), on po­ Almanac. litical kickback charges could h:cve a seri­ ous effect on the election futures of many Republicans this year. New Jersey has New Jersey had more than its share recently of in­ dictments of high elected officials. PRESIDENTIAL: The President won here in 1968 and will probably do so again, although it may be a close contest for the state's New Mej{ico 17 electoral votes. George Wallace's PRESIDENTIAL: The "Land of Enchantment" has American Independent Party will appar­ always voted for a winning Republican ently be on the ballot again and an Eagle­ Presidential candidate. Since Nixon should ton Institute of Politics poll showed Nix­ carry this state as handily as in 1968, on winning a three-way race. Governor the omen at least is good for his re-elec­ William Cahill has been named head of tion. The early, well-financed, well-or­ the Nixon re-election effort but Cahill's ganized Nixon effort to take the state's unpopular state income tax could hurt four electoral votes is not duplicated in the whole Republican ticket. many other states. SENATORIAL: If there are any coattails in the 1972 SENATORIAL: The State's 76-year-old Democratic election in the Garden State, Clifford P. Senator, Clinton P. Anderson, is not seek­ Cas:!, the liberal Republican incumbent ing re-election. As a result of the June in the Senate is likely to provide them to 6 primary former State Representative both Nixon and the rest of the ticket. He Jack Daniels, 48, will be the Democrat easily outdistanced his conservative oppo­ opposing Pete V. Domenici, an Albu­ nent in the June 6 primary and will face querque lawyer who captured the Re­ former Congressman Paul Krebs (D) in p'lblican nomination. Daniels spent the the fall. Krebs defeated the '68 McCarthy relatively huge sum of $100,000 to de­ state campaign director, Daniel M. Gaby, feat a field of 25 candidates, including for the nomination by picking up strong the state's Attorney General, Treasurer, labor support and the backing of the and a former Congressman. Domenici, Democratic machines in Essex and Hud­ who ran for Governor in 1970, defeated son counties. Labor, however, may be former two-term Governor David Cargo, neutral in the fall. who in turn was trying to make his sec­ CONGRESSIONAL: Congressional districts in the ond race for the Senate.' It will be a state were significantly altered by a court­ close race. ordered plan when the state legislature CONGR2SSIONAL: Incumbent Republican Manuel could not come up with an acceptable Lujan, Jr. of the 1st C.D. was renomi­ alternative. Several changes in the dele- nated and will face a Santa Fe business-

July, 1972 27 man, Eugene Gallegos, in November. troller. Roncallo is expected to win easi­ Lujan should win, but he has an aggres­ ly. In Brooklyn, former Long Island Con­ sive opponent. In the Second District, gressman Allard K. Lowenstein, who is freshman Harold Runnels was unopposed na tional Chairman of Americans for for the Democratic nomination, but will Democratic Action and wiII remain on face a stiff challenge from a 29-year-old the ballot as a Liberal, lost his bid for a former aide to Congressman Lujan, Ed­ comeback against Congressman John J. ward Presson. Rooney (D), 84, the nemesis of the State STATE: Democrats control the legislature 2 to 1 but Department on the House Appropria­ there are chances for Republican im­ tions Committee. Emanuel CeIler, the provemen t in both houses. venerable Chairman of the House Judi­ ciary Committee, however, was less for­ tunate, losing to the spirited campaign New York of Barbara Holtzman, a graduate of Rad­ cliffe and Harvard Law School. Congress­ PRESIDENTIAL: At the moment, President Nixon man Peter A. Peyser (R) in the 23rd C.D. has a good chance to pick up New York's is being contested by former Congressman 41 electoral votes. His campaign will be Richard L. Ottinger (D) who was Sen­ nominally led by Governor Nelson Rock­ ator Charles Goodell's Democratic op­ efeller and Senators Jacob Javits and ponent in 1970 and who will be running James Buckley. The real operations will as a law and order candidate. In the be headed by R. Burdell Bixby, chairman 24th C.D., Congressman Ogden R. Reid of the New York State Thruway Author­ (D), formerly of the GOP, will be making ity. Bixby was Rockefeller's campaign his first race as a Democrat against Carl chairman in the last gubernatorial elec­ A. Vergari, the Republican Westchester tion and the Nixon re-election effort will County district attorney. Gov. Rockefel­ be largely led by the reactivated Rock­ ler took the unusual step of hosting a efeller campaign team. Nixon efforts in fundraising affair at Rockefeller's Pocan­ New York City will be led by Fiorvante tico HiIIs estate. Lots of money will be G. Perrotta, the Republican candidate for spent in this race. It will be close. In the New York City comptroller in 1969 and 31st C.D. State Assemblyman Donald J. Rockefeller campaign manager in the Mitchell (R) is favored to beat business­ city in 1970. The Nixon campaign has man Robert Castle (D) for the seat be­ not yet been activated, to the consterna­ ing vacated by retiring Congressman tion of some Republicans. McGovern's Alexander Pirnie (R). In the 33rd C.D. own organization carried the New York former Syracuse Mayor William F. Walsh State primary for him and McGovern (R), 59, is favored to beat Clarence has received a good deal of regular or­ Kadys (D), a hardware store owner. ganizational support in the state as well. Former Congressman Richard McCarthy ;,rrl "Jw, Nixon lost the state in 1968 by 370,000 (D) is trying for a comeback in the HG') !dIJq'L votes. Democrats outnumbered Republi- 36th C.D. against Congressman Henry JJ' JJ''' [c rIllY cans and young Democratic voter regis- P. Smith III (R). Three Democratic in­ f.;~·- r HI ;"'1; tration is far outrunning the Republicans. cumbents could be endangered by redis­ _" )"/'[ Gill 'roNevertheless, the Republican chances can­ tricting. Congressman Lester L. Wolff (D) -'[(·-I"~'1l ,b'J')·m>t be discounted. faces a challenge from State Assembly­ ~p~q}}~~,~mqN~L: The ,New York State .congres- man John T. Gallagher, 42, a conservative , I sIOnal delegatIOn now has a sohd Dem- Republican. Congressman Seymour Halp­ ';'" !"lTI·r.r~nd the defeat of Congress­ ,') ono/)~~ l~~s «.. ,Scheuer. by Congressman 67, will run against State Assemblyman . nathan-'n'l~Qlgham In the 22nd C.D. Benjamin A. Gilman (R), 49, a liberal T "'ll :1. flI'" (~ , " IT"!f}(lfi~D bs~f,,~~del'y reported. Other .races Republican who defeated a conservative " " ' Cl [["ha.Y'~'T,mor~ ~n1licance to Republicans. for the GOP nomination. !, ~",,' O:'(1~ljtn'!

-" [' C' • 'r;'/l a: ~\-ltepQb~~fin:\vi1fTun against Angelo Anderson. In the State Assembly, a shift --.'" ,r ')1: 'l'J:l}(onciiId Cit')', l1S.e>N~~sah County Con- of five votes would change a Republican is Ripon Forum ,

majority into a Democratic majority, but popular. The prospects of Nixon winning barring a large Nixon def~at, the As~em­ the three North Dakota clectoral votes bly is expected to remam RepublIcan. are excellent. The chairman of the pres­ (See May 15 FORUM newsletter for ident's campaign is John Rouzie, a Bow­ summary of key Republican races.) man banker. GUBERNATORIAL: Governor WiIIiam L. Guy (D), North Carolina a 12-year veteran, is retiring. The Dem­ PRESIDENTIAL: Humphrey came in a poor third ocratic candidate for the position is Con­ to Nixon and Wallace here in 1968, and gressman Arthur Link, who chose not to Wallace made a clear sweep of the re­ run for Congress when North Dakota cent Democratic primary. With the busing lost one of its two Congressional seats. issue still quite hot, Nixon will win the Lt. Gov. Richard Larsen won a sur­ state's 13 electoral votes in November. prisingly easy second-ballot nomination for the gubernatorial spot at the Repub­ SENATORIAL: Age and "new politics" were the key lican State Convention July 6, but Rob­ issues which led to the upsetting of 75- ert P. McCarney, 60, a Bismarck car year-old incumbent B. Everett Jordan in dealer who often runs for state office, the June 3rd Democratic runoff. Gi,:en has threatened to enter a September 5 little chance at first, challenger Nick primary without seeking a convention en­ Galifianakis, 43, swept to a 70,000 vote dorsement. The general election contest margin over the two-term Senator with promises to be hard-fought. the enthusiastic support of young volun­ CONGRESSIONAL: Popular Republican Congress­ t,~ers and voters in the state's populous Piedmont region. Congressman Galifiian­ man Mark Andrews is favored for North akis is in a tight race against ultra-con­ Dakota's lone at-large seat. servative Republican television broadcast­ STATE: Both houses of the legislature will stay Re­ publican-controlled. er Jesse Helms in this traditionally ?~~­ ocratic state. But recent GOP activities have been cutting into the 3 to 1 Demo­ Ohio cratic enrollment ratio, and strong cam­ paigns by Nixon and Helms could swing PRESIDENTIAL: As in a few other key states, the this state into the Republican camp for Nixon organization has been slow to get the first time in decades. off the ground because of indecision by national Nixon headquarters over the GUBERNATORIAL: State Representative James choice of a chairman. In this case one Holshouser was an unexpected victor over problem is party infighting, broadly de­ former U.S. Representative and 1968 gu­ fined as being between the Taft and bernatorial candidate James C. Gardner Rhodes forces. Ohio is a key state for in the GOP primary. On the Demo­ Nixon; the late start may jeopardize his cratic side, former State Senator Har­ chances of winning Ohio's 25 electoral grove "Skipper" Bowles' expensive cam­ votes despite the general well-organized paign paid off, as he easily defeated Lt. state party operation. The recently-named Gov. Hoyt Patrick Taylor, Jr. The Nixon chairman, Chuck Ross of Dayton, incumbent Democrat, Robert W. Scott, will pull it together if anyone can. is ineliaible for a second term. As with the senbatorial race, there is a possibility CONGRESSIONAL: Redistricting cost the state one for a GOP takeover if the national cam­ seat and created one new district. Con­ paign does well. servative State Sen. Tennyson Guyer of Findley (R) should win the heavi~y ~e­ CONGRESSIONAL: Most of the Congressional seats. publican 4th C.D. Another open district, are held by Democrats and are rated as the 16th C.D., should be won by mod­ "safe." In the seat being vacated by erate State Sen. Ralph Regula of Canton Galifianakis, the 4th C.D., the Democratic who will succeed retiring Congressman nomination has gone to State Representa­ Frank T. Bow. Regula has a generally tive Ike Andrews. In the 7th C.D., a con­ good legislative record. The only incum­ servative is likely to be replaced by a bent to face a serious challenge is duII, moderate, as Representative Alton Len­ conservative Congressman WiIIiam Min­ non, 65, has retired, and will be replaced shall (R) in his suburban Cleveland 23rd by Democratic nominee Charles Rose III, C.D. His opponent is Dennis Kuchinich, a Fayetteville attorney. a Cleveland councilman who is young and STATE: The Democrats dominate the legislature. abrasive and in the end, is expected to lose. North Dakota STATE: The Democratic-controlled Apportionment PRESIDENTIAL: Harry Dent, Nixon pol},tical stratt;­ Board has radically changed both House gist, reported recently that, the news IS and Senate district lines, giving the Dem­ aood (about the farm vote) even from ocrats an outside chance at capturing North Dakota, and that's always the the House, now 54-45 for the Republi­ worst state." Even Secretary of Agri­ cans. The Senate, with a 20-13 Repub­ culture Earl Butz seems to be currently lican majority, should stay that way, al-

July, 1972 29 though the majority could be cut be­ May 23 primary and won 61.4 percent cause of the retirement of several able of the vote against three challengers, as GOP senators. Republican Gov. Tom McCall decided to stay out of the race. Meanwhile, the Dem­ ocrats engaged in their usual bloodletting. Oklahoma In a four-man contest, former U.S. Sen. PRESIDENTIAL: There are eight electoral votes at Wayne Morse defeated his old nemesis, stake in Oklahoma and they are expect­ hawkish former Congressman Robert B. ed to go to Nixon as the did in 1960 and Duncan, 44 to 33 percent. Hatfield is a 1968. A politically active Oklahoma City strong favorite. woman, Rita Moore, will be running the CONGRESSIONAL: Oregon's evenly divided four-man Nixon campaign. delegation should remain that way. The SENATORIAL: Although Sen. Fred Harris' presiden­ closest race will be for the seat of Con­ tial campaign was abortive, he chose not gressman john Dellenback who trounced to run for re-election. Congressman Ed­ Medford Mayor William Singler for the mondson will probably give a tough race Republican nomination in the 4th C.D., to former Gov. Dewey F. Bartlett, if Ed­ but he may have a harder time defeating mondson survives the rough Democratic former Congressman Charles O. Porter primary campaign and can unite his par­ who squeaked out a victory in a crowd· ty after the August 22 voting, ?ut. early ed primary field of seven Democrats. indications of an easy Democratlc VictOry no longer apply. Bartlett's gubernatorial STATE: Both the Republican-controlled House and record, financing and ticket association the Democrat-controlled Senate are up with Nixon should help him. Lapses of for election this year, but it's too early liberalism in Edmondson's generally con­ to predict which party will control next servative record have exposed him to year's legislature. Both popular Republi­ strong attacks from right-wing Demo­ cans, Secretary of State Clay Myers and cratic opponents. Attorney General Lee johnson are expect­ ed to win easily. CONGRESSIONAL: The Democratic legislature re­ districted the state to favor the continued 4-2 lineup for the Democrats. In the 1st Pennsylvania C.D., II-term Congressman Page Bel­ PRESIDENTIAL: The Pennsylvania Nixon campaign cher (R) is retiring. In the field of Re­ will be organized by Philadelphia District publican hopefuls, former Tulsa Mayor Attorney Arlen Specter, who is building james Hewgley is probably the frontrun­ toward the 1974 Republican gubernato­ ner although two younger former legis­ rial nomination. Nixon is expected to lators, Ralph Rhodes and joe McGraw carry the thinly populated central areas and Attorney Bob Risley are also seek­ of the state, while the southwestern and ing the nomination. jim jones, a former northeastern coal counties and the cities Democratic White House aide, gave Bel­ of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia general­ cher a good race in 1970. Although the ly vote Democratic, although Democratic opening in 2nd C.D. being left by Con­ Philadelphia Mayor Frank Rizzo has call­ gressman Edmondson presents a GOP ed Nixon "The greatest President ever." opportunity, no Republicans have yet Humphrey carried the state with about announced. The other four seats are con­ 52 percent of the vote in 1968 and won sidered safe for the incumbents. the primary this year. McGovern tied STATE: The Oklahoma legislature is 4-1 Democratic. Senator Edmund Muskie for third with It is not likely that the Republicans will 20.4 percent. The general election result work political miracles. will swing on whether Nixon can make inroads in the traditionally Democratic Oregon blue-collar and ethnic areas in the cities PRESIDENTIAL: Although McGovern carried Or­ and whether the heavily-populated sub­ egon's presidential primary with 50.3 per­ urbs, particularly the Republican sub­ cent of the vote, the South Dakotan was urbs of Philadelphia, swing towards the really the only major Democratic aspirant Democratic candidate as they did in the to campaign in the state. The state gave 1970 gubernatorial race. Labor is a ma­ its six electoral votes to Nixon in both jor factor in Pennsylvania and Nixon's 1960 and 1968 and is likely to do so again chances of taking Pennsylvania's 27 elec­ this year, barring major changes in the toral votes will depend substantially on national political scene. Domestic issues events on the labor and economic fronts. like the economy and export-import quo­ If McGovern does not get strong labor tas on timber will be the major electoral support, he will be in trouble. One issue concerns of Oregon voters. should be the speed and efficacy wi th SENATORIAL: Although dovish Republican Sen. which flood relief reaches Pennsylvania Mark o. Hatfield has had his share of after Tropical Storm Agnes devastated political difficulties in Oregon in the past the state. Nixon is currently given a good year, he made a strong comeback in the chance to win in Pennsylvania.

30 Ripon Forum CONGRESSIONAL: Most of the incumbents on Penn­ SENATORIAL: Former Navy Secretary John Chaffee sylvania's congressional delegation are fa­ won election as Governor despite the Gold­ vored for re-election. The delegation is water landslide in 1964 and he is present­ now 14 to 13 for the Democrats but two in­ ly given the edge for the Senate seat cumbents will not return because their dis­ held by the popular Democratic incum­ tricts were eliminated in Philadelphia and bent, Claiborne Peli. Both men have good Allegheny County. Congressman James organizations but the Newport-raised Pell A. Byrne was defeated for an 11 th term is leading in the campaign coffers while in the 3rd C.D. by Congressman William Chaffee leads in the opinion polls. A J. Green as the two Democrats were Chaffee win is needed to pull in other thrown into the same district by reappor­ candidates on the Republican ticket. tionment. In the 27th C.D., Congress­ GUBERNATORIAL: The race to succeed the current man William S. Conover (R) won a spe­ unpopular governor, Frank Licht, will be cial election April 27 to fill the unexpired a close one between Herbert F. DeSimone, term of the late Congressman James G. a former Rhode Island Attorney General, Fulton (R), but the 27th will be elim­ and Warwick Mayor Philip Noel. Noel inated by redistricting. The same day he will draw French Canadian votes while was elected to Congress, Conover, a Pitts­ DeSimone will attract Italian-American burgh insurance broker, was defeated for voters, but the importance of ethnic con­ the Republican nomination in the 22nd siderations is on the wane in Rhode Is­ C.D. by James Montgomery, a West land. DeSimone will be favored. Alexander glass inspector. The incumbent in the 22nd, Congressman Thomas E. CONGRESSIONAL: The state primary isn't until Morgan (D) is favored. The man Con­ September 12 so Republican candidates over beat for the 27th seat, Douglas Walg­ to challenge the state's two Democratic ren (D), will be running against bright incumbents aren't yet obvious. Waiter young Congressman H. John Heinz III Miska, a conservative, is hoping for a re­ in the 18th C.D. Heinz is running an ag­ match against Congressman Fernand St. gressive campaign under the direction of Germain in the 1st C.D. Whoever the Jim McGregor, who is considered one of Republican candidates are, they will be the best campaign technicians in the state heavy underdogs in November. and who ran the 1971 Heinz campaign. STATE: The General Assembly, which is heavily Dem­ The predicted Heinz victory is seen as ocratic, is not expected to change its po­ another possible prelude to the 1974 gu­ litical complexion. The posts of Lieutenant bernatorial campaign. In the 20th C.D., Governor, Secretary of State, and General McKeesport Mayor Zoran Popovich, a Treasurer are expected to remain in Dem­ Ripon member, is running an uphill race ocratic hands, but the promising Repub­ against Congressman Joseph M. Gaydos lican Attorney General, Richard J. Is­ (D) in a strong Democratic district. rael, should be re-elected. Rhode Island STATE: Republicans have targeted about a dozen leg­ voters like to have a Republican Attorney islative seats for special attention this General to keep track of the Democrats. year in an effort to take control of the state legislature. The Democrats are still favored to retain command but Republi­ South Carolina cans are hoping that a Nixon victory could effect the lower ranks of the GOP PRESIDENTIAL: President Nixon managed to out­ ticket. distance both Wallace and Humphrey in In two statewide races - for Auditor 1968 and South Carolina's eight electoral General and State Treasurer - a "watch­ votes are unlikely pickings for Senator dog" team of Republicans of Frank Mc­ McGovern. The Nixon campaign is be­ Corkel (for Auditor) and Glenn Williams ing run by Jim Henderson, a Greenville (for Treasurer) , a black from the Harris­ advertising executive. burg area, are running, accompanied by SENATORIAL: Sen. Strom Thurmond, was consider­ a lap dog. (They're going to watch Gov. ed vulnerable after the gubernatorial de­ Milton J. Schapp and the rest of the Dem­ feat of his political aIly, Albert Watson, ocratic administration.) like Thurmond a former Democrat, but the Senator is now considered a strong favorite for re-election. Thurmond re­ Rhode Island ceived 62 percent of the vote in 1966 and PRESIDENTIAL: The President is almost a sure-fire since 1970 has worked hard at mending loser in Rhode Island. He lost the state the fabric of his political future. He has decisively in 1968 and his popularity has even put blacks on his Senate staff and not increased in the interim. The Nixon recently accepted honors from the "Na­ campaign in the state will be led by tional Council of Afro-American Repub­ Cranston Mayor James L. Taft, Jr., but licans." Former Gov. Robert E. McNair it will be hampered by a lack of GOP or­ decided not to challenge Thurmond; his ganizational depth in areas like Provi­ opponent will be decided in a primary be­ dence. tween State Sen. Eugene N. Zeigler, a

July, 1972 31 moderate, and John B. Culbertson, a lib­ Charles Lien for the second-place spot eral attorney who managed to praise in the primary. The November prospects Thurmond for the recent shift in his ra­ of an Abourezk-Hirsch campaign are dif­ cial attitudes. The Democratic Senate ficult to forecast, but Abourezk probably, contest was originalIy scheduled for June has the edge despite the state's normal­ 27 but because of difficulties with redis­ ly Republican proclivities. tricting of the state legislature, a three­ GUBERNATORIAL: Democratic Gov. Richard F. judge federal panel enjoined the balIot­ Kneip was the pre-primary favorite to ing, holding up the selection of Senate win re-election, but State Sen. Carveth and congressional nominees as well. A Thompson, 39, scored a strong, 72-27 new date has not been set. percent, victory over felIow legislator CONGRESSIONAL: The only Republican Congress­ Simon W. Chance in the Republican pri­ man from South Carolina, Floyd Spence, mary. Thompson is an aggressive cam­ doesn't have Democratic opposition so paigner but is still the underdog against he'lI continue on the minority side of a a McGovern-led ticket. 5 to 1 congressional delegation. Congress­ CONGRESSIONAL: Republicans have a chance to man John L. McMillan, in the 6th C.D., take back the seats they lost in the 1970 is considered to have serious opposition elections. In the 1st C.D. progressive Re­ from two young Democratic chalIengers: publican John Vickerman, a 34-year-old State Rep. John W. Jenrette Jr., 36, and former SmalI Business Administration di­ Billy R. Craig, a HartsvilIe lawyer. Jen­ rector in South Dakota will contest the rette is considered the stronger contender. seat held by Congressman Frank E. Den­ holm, 48. Vickerman is given a good STATE: The legislature is being redistricted. Current­ chance to unseat Denholm who neverthe­ ly, the Republicans hold three of 14 seats less is the favorite. In the seat being va­ in the Senate and 11 of 124 state repre­ cated by Abourezk, former McGovern sentatives. aide Pat McKeever, 36, will be the Dem­ ocratic nominee. On the Republican bal­ South Dakota lot, James Abnor, a conservative former Lieutenant Governor whose organization PRESIDENTIAL: South Dakota is normalIy a Repub­ included prominent Republican progres­ lican state and gave Nixon a 53-42 per­ sives, defeated Rapid City attorney Mike cent victory over Humphrey in 1968 for DeMerseeman by almost 2 to 1. A the state's four electoral votes. But South conservative-dominated GOP ticket might Dakota's voters are sensitive to admin­ sink Abnor. istration farm policies and registered their dissatisfaction by electing a Democratic STATE: Commanding Republican majorities in both Governor and two Democratic congress­ houses of the legislature could be con­ siderably reduced by the November elec­ men in 1970. AlI three positions had for­ merly been held by Republicans. A Dem­ tion. ocratic ticket led by favorite-son McGov­ ern - who got 57 percent of the vote in his 1968 Senate race - wiII be favored Tennessee here. The tendency of South Dakota voter PRESIDENTIAL: Most of the Democratic presiden­ to vote a straight party ticket could deter­ tial aspirants virtually abandoned Ten­ mine the fate of many Republican office­ nessee to George WalIace who got 68 seekers. percent of the vote (while McGovern got 7 percent). In 1968, Nixon edged SENATORIAL: Retiring Sen. Karl E. Mundt has been out WalIace 38 to 34 percent, and pick­ ill for several years, and his seat is high­ ed up Tennessee's ten electoral votes. He ly vulnerable to freshman Congressman will again be the clear favorite against James Abourezk (D). While Abourezk McGovern this year, although he received was unopposed for the nomination, the strong press criticism in the state for not Republican Convention on June 26 was being quick enough to attack busing. His forced to choose between conservative campaign will be closely tied to the Re­ former State Sen. Robert Hirsch, and publican organization of Gov. Winfield moderate Attorney General Gordon Myd­ Dunn and Sen. Bill Brock, his state co­ land, because none of the five-man chairmen. McGovern's views on busing primary field got 35 percent of the vote. are not likely to be popular here. Hirsch, a vigorous candidate, sewed up the nomination before the convention and SENATORIAL: Whether Sen. Howard Baker is re­ was nominated by acclamation. He was elected wiII depend in large measure on aided by his alliance with State Chair­ the combined electoral fortunes of Nixon­ man Bob Bums, strong organization, and Baker. Right now, both are strong favor­ a first-place finish in the primary. Myd­ ites. Baker. who has money and organ­ land, who was the top Republican to ization. will be chalIenged by Congress­ survive the 1970 Democratic sweep, bare­ man Ray Blanton, whose seat was the one ly nudged out conservative businessman lost to Tennessee in redistricting. (The

32 Ripon Forttm nominee will be determined in an August servative, and Texas has been traditional­ primary but Blanton is the only serious ly Democratic on the state level. The contender.) Baker's major problem is GOP did not have a candidate for Lieu­ that he is out-bused by Blanton, who tenant Governor, so WiIIiam P. Hobby, has criticized him for supporting the nom­ Jr., the editor of the Houston Post who ination of the federal judge who order­ won the Democratic primary over State ed the integration of the Nashville school Senator Wayne Connally (brother of system. Blanton can appeal to as many John), is assured of election. conservative emotions as Baker, so the CONGRESSIONAL: Texas Republicans are still losing 1972 senatorial race will not be a replay by default in many races. After the May of the 1970 campaign between Brock and 6 primary, there were no candidates in liberal former Sen. Albert Gore. 11 of the 24 Texas Congressional seats. CONGRESSIONAL: The redistricting plan passed by Perhaps the most interesting race in the legislature over the veto of Governor November will put two incumbent con­ Dunn hurt the Republicans. Congress­ gressmen, Robert Price, (R), 44, and man LaMar Baker (R-3), a conservative, Graham Purcell (D), in a close race for will be hardpressed to beat Democrat the new 13th C.D. In the 5th C.D., Howard Sompayrac, and Republican Con­ Congressman Earl Cabell (D), 65, may gressman Dan Kuykendall in the 6th C.D. have a tough fight against Alan Steel­ is in even more trouble. But the Ten­ man, a former Dallas County Repub­ nessee delegation will definitely have one lican official. In the 2nd C.D. Con­ less Democrat - Blanton. gressman John Dowdy has been convict­ STATE: The current legislature is Democratic - to ed of bribery, conspiracy and perjury, the consternation of Republican Gov. and his wife sought to sllcceed him. She Dunn. A strong Republican win by Nix­ lost the primary to liberal State Sen. on-Baker could bring in a Republican Charles Wilson who seems a sure bet to House of Representatives. beat Charles O. Brightwell, 37, a Repub­ lican lumber salesman. Also in political trouble is Congressman James M. Col­ Texas lins (R), who won renomination despite PRESIDENTIAL: Should those recurring rumors of a kickback scandal on his staff. Col­ a John Connally vice-presidency prove lins will face Democrat George A. Hughes true, a Nixon sweep here would seem Jr., Chairman of the Dallas Citizens likely. At any rate, Texas is certainly a Against Forced Busing. State Sen. Bar­ key state - Nixon lost by only 1 per­ bara Jordan (D), a black legislator who cent of the vote here in 1968, while Wal­ was elected vice chairman of the Texas lace picked up almost 20 percent. Nixon Democratic Convention, should be an must be favored now. easy bet to become the South's first black SENATORIAL: The excitement this year was on the Congresswoman in modern times. Democratic side, since two-term conserva­ tive Republican incumbent John G. Tow­ er was unopposed for renomination. For­ Utah mer Sen. Ralph W. Yarborough (' 5 7- PRESIDENTIAL: Richard Richards, an Ogden attor­ 71), a liberal who had the backing of ney, will head the President's re-election organized labor, tried to make a come­ campaign in Utah, expected to yield an back but was defeated in the June 3 easy four electoral votes. None of the Democratic primary by Barefoot Sanders, state'~ top Democrats appear overjoyed a Dallas attorney who had been a leg­ about a McGovern candidacy. islative counsel to President Johnson. GUBERNATORIAL: Governor Calvin Rampton (D) Right now, the money is on Tower in is favored for an unprecedented third November. term and the third term issue is likely GUBERNATORIAL: As in the Senate race, the real to be a key theme of the campaign of fireworks were in the Democratic column. the only announced Republican candi­ A major bank scandal has implicated date, Nicholas Strike. Strike, a Salt Lake some of the key Democratic figures in City businessman and political newcomer, Texas, including Governor Preston Smith, will be nominated at the July 15 Repub­ State Chairman Elmer Baum, and Lt. lican convention and may benefit from Gov. Ben Barnes. As a result the pri­ Nixon's coattails in the general election. mary boiled down to two "outsiders": CONGRESSIONAL: The 1st C.D. is a normally Re­ Dolph Briscoe, a conservative rancher publican district but it elected Congress­ and banker, and State Representative man K. Gunn McKay (D) in 1970. His Frances "Sissy" Farenthold, a liberal. probable Republican opponent is Dr. Briscoe, who was successful, is favored Robert Wolthuis, a political moderate over right-wing GOP State Sen. Henry C. who until recently was an aide to Sen. Grover, who beat Houston oilman Albert Wallace Bennett. If Wolthuis can amass Bel Fay for his party's gubernatorial nom­ 70 percent of the delegate votes at the ination. Briscoe and Grover are both con- state convention, he can avoid a primary

July, 1972 33 fight against Joe Ferguson, a John Birch contest will be resolved in the September Society member. Wolthuis is given a good primary. The Republican-controlled leg­ chance to unseat McKay. Congressman islature is not expected to change its par­ Sherman P. Lloyd (R-2), had unexpect­ tisan orientation. ed difficulty winning re-election in 1970, and may have trouble this year with Wayne Owens, the Democratic aspirant Virginia who gained publicity with a 689-mile PRESIDENTIAL: Republicans in Virginia are looking walk through the 2nd C.D. in April. forward to a Nixon-McGovern race. The STATE: The legislature is up for election this year GOP would like to see McGovern as the and the Senate is expected by GOP lead­ Democratic nominee because it should ers to remain Republican. The fate of help their congressional candidates as well the currently Democratic House could as insure 12 electoral votes for Nixon. swing on the relative popularities of Nix­ The Nixon campaign in Virginia is be­ on and Rampton. ing run independent of the Republican Party and its intraparty difficulties. For­ Vermont mer Gov. Mills E. Godwin, a Democrat, however, has announced tha t he will take PRESIDENTIAL: The McGovern supporters took over a prominent part in the President's re­ the Vermont Democratic Convention this election campaign in the state. The move year and passed a platform favoring strict has been suggested as a preliminary to gun control, amnesty for draft dodgers, a conservative Republican-Democratic co­ legalized marijuana, and unrestricted alition to oppose Lt. Gov. Henry E. How. abortion. As a result, Democratic voters ell for governor next year. in Vermont are quickly becoming an en­ dangered species. Nixon, who won in SENATORIAL: After the Republican organization's 1960 and 1968, should have no trouble recen t sharp righ t turn and the Demo­ repeating. The President's campaign will crat's recent sharp left turn, Sen. William be run by State GOP Chairman Russell B. Spong who's somewhere in the middle Merriman and Mrs. Karen F. Draper, of the spectrum, is the favorite for re­ the young co-chairwoman of the state election. He will be opposed by Congress­ Nixon effort. man William Scott (R), who not only opposes busing but compensatory educa­ GUBERNATORIAL: With the Democratic party in tion as well. Scott will have organization­ disarray, the party is having a hard time al problems, and will be relying on the finding a candidate to succeed retiring state's weak GOP organization. Former Gov. Deane C. Davis (R). State Sen. Republican State Chairman Horace E. Charles Delaney, 48, of Winooski has an­ "Hunk" Henderson will offer an interest­ nounced but is wavering. The Republi­ ing liberal alternative as an independent can nominee will be decided in the Sep­ in the race. tember 12 primary. The aspirants are Luther F. Hackett, a moderate and re­ CONGRESSIONAL: In two districts, the new con­ spected administrator who has strong par­ servative Republican organization has not ty backing and Attorney General James even fielded candidates. Congressmen W. J. Jeffords, whose flashy actions have C. Daniel (D) and David E. Satterfield alienated party professionals. Jeffords was (D) are unopposed at present, but so in the news last year for demanding that is Republican Congressman G. William the International Paper Company take out Whitehurst. The key races will be in the all the sludge it had dumped into Lake 4th and 8th C.D. Republican plantation Champlain in the past 100 years. Refer­ owner Robert W. Daniel, Jr., 36, is seek­ ring to the company which had just built ing the seat of retiring Congressman Wat. a new "clean" factory, Jeffords had bum­ kins M. Abbitt (D-4). Prospects for Re­ per stickers produced which read: "Don't publican victory against Robert E. Gib· Let Them Do It in the Lake." Jeffords son (D), a state legislator, are unclear goes over well at county fairs but Hackett at the moment. In the 8th C.D. State goes over well at party meetings. Hackett Del. Stanford E. Parris, 42, a conserva­ is favored. tive, beat former Assistant U.S. Attorney James R. Tate, 28, for the Republican CONGRESSIONAL: Congressman Richard Mallary nomination in the district being left by (R), who was elected to fill the unexpired Congressman Scott. The Democratic can­ term of Sen. Robert T. Stafford (R), is didate for the suburban Washington seat the strong favorite for re-election. He as is Fairfax Attorney Robert F. Horan but yet has no opponents. two independents are running as well. STATE: State Rep. John McClaughry, 34, is mounting Again, the outcome is uncertain. In the a serious intra-party challenge to Lt. Gov. 6th C.D. where Congressman Richard John S. Burgess for this year's Republi­ Poff will resign soon to take up a seat can nomination. Burgess hurt his chances on the Virginia Supreme Court, Caldwell severely by vacillating on whether to run Butler, a former state legislator, is favor­ for governor or for his current seat. The ed over Willis M. Anderson, another, but

34 Ripon Forum r

more conservative, state legislator. An in­ now with the edge to McGovern, based dependent liberal is also in the race. on his organization and the heavy state Other incumbents are favored. There are Democratic registration advantage. now six Republicans and four Democrats SENATORIAL: State Sen. Louise Leonard, a conser­ in Congress. vative Republican, is running against Sen. Jennings Randolph (D), but Sen. Marga~ Washington ret Chase Smith isn't likely to have any PRESIDENTIAL: The President is given a fair chance female company in the Senate next year. to carry Washington, which he lost to Most of Sen. Leonard's limited name rec­ Humphrey in 1968 by a 47 to 45 percent ognition stems from a campaign against margin. Fragmentation among Democrat­ pornography. ic supporters of Senators McGovern and GUBERNATORIAL: Gov. Arch A. Moore Jr. a Re­ favorite-son Henry Jackson could hinder publican is running for re-election against the Democratic campaign for the state's popular Secretary of State Jay D. Rock­ nine electoral votes. The war and the efeller, a RockefelIer Democrat. Who's economy will be strong issues because favored depends on to whom you talk. of Washington's high unemployment rate. Moore won election in 1968 with 50.9 GUBERNATORIAL: Gov. Daniel J. Evans is seek­ percent of the vote. RockefelIer trounced ing an unprecedented third consecutive two opponents in a May 9 primary and term. The Democratic candidate should has de-emphasized his opposition to strip­ be State Senator Martin Durkan, 49, an mining and emphasized the state's poor attorney. Although the Evans campaign economic climate. The edge is Rockefel­ is running welI, Durkan is given a chance ler's. to unseat Evans, partly because of the CONGRESSIONAL: West Virginia lost one seat in third-term issue. the Congress this year so incumbents CONGRESSIONAL: In the 1st C.D., Congressman Ken Heckler and James Kee squared Thomas M. Pelly (R) has decided to re­ off in a primary. The Kee family, - tire. The probable GOP candidate is mother, father, and son - have held former State Senator Joel Pritchard, a the 4th C.D. seat since 1933. No more. Seattle businessman. William E. Boeing Heckler won the primary 2 to 1 and Jr. has decided not to enter the primary should have little difficulty defeating Re­ after all. The chief Democratic contender publican Sheriff Joe Neal. is John HempeImann, a young attorney STATE: The legislature is 2 to 1 Democratic. The and "Scoop Jackson Democrat" who voters are registered over 2 to 1 Demo­ claims to have an $80,000 warchest. The cratic. Republicans aren't expected to ef­ 4th C.D. contest between freshman Con­ fect startling changes in the State Capitol. gressman Mike McCormack and State House Majority Leader Stewart Bleds­ Wisconsin coe (R) is too close to call. In the 2nd PRESIDENTIAL: Although Nixon carried Wisconsin C.D., Congressman Lloyd Meeds seems in 1968, he is now the underdog in a close likely to overcome a chalIenge by King race for Wisconsin's 11 electoral votes County Councilman Bill Reams (R). this faIl - though his popularity rose STATE: State Attorney General Slade Gorton will folIowing his Moscow trip. Dita Beard and probably be unopposed for renomination James McCord are not helping Nixon and is given a good chance to be re-elect­ much among Wisconsin voters. Milwau­ ed. He wilI probably run against State kee lawyer John MacIver wilI again be in Sen. Fred Dore. For Secretary of State, charge of the Nixon campaign, in which Republican incumbent A. Ludlow Kramer the war and the economy wilI be the seems assured of victory over Don Bonk­ big issues. Eleven votes in the Electoral ers (D). The upper house of the state' Co lIege will be at stake. legislature is Democratic and probably CONGRESSIONAL: Reapportionment, which elimi­ will remain so, but the fate of the house, nated one of Wisconsin's ten seats, has which is narrowly controlIed by Repub­ thrown together Congressman Davis Obey licans, is uncertain. (D), 32, from the 7th C.D. and Congress­ man Alvin E. O'Konski (R), 65, of the old West Virginia 10th C.D. Obey, who won Melvin Laird's PRESIDENTIAL: West Virginia has gone Democratic old seat, will be the slight favorite over in the last three presidential election, but O'Konski, who has been in Congress a McGovern-Nixon race in the state for 30 years. O'Konski has not yet an­ could be close at the moment. Nixon's nounced, however. The GOP may lose ties to big business and big industry may another seat in the 8th C.D. where Con­ not go over welI with the West Virginia gressman John W. Byrnes is retiring. voter. Mine-related issues could be im­ About a dozen Republicans have an­ portant in the faIl - like strip mining nounced for the seat at one time but and Nixon's reluctance to sign the Coal some have withdrawn. The edge wilI go Mine Health and Safety Act. West Vir­ to Father Robert J. Cornell, a Catholic ginia's six electoral votes are a tossup right co lIege professor, who lost to Byrnes in

July, 1972 35 1970. The major Republican contend­ ers for the seat include State Senator The New Voters vs. 1968 Margins Myron Lotto, a moderate, District At­ torney James Long, a perennial candi­ 1968 Presidential Potent:al New date who keeps his campaign headquar­ state Winner's Vote Margin ¥onng Voters" ters permanently list in the phone book, Alabama (Wallace) 494,846 440,000 and State Assembly Minority Leader Alaska (Nixon) 2,169 29,000 Harold Froehlich, an archconservative. Arizona (Nixon) 96.207 232,000 The other four Democratic and three Re­ Arkansas (Wallace) 50,223 230,000 publican Congressman are favored for re­ California (Nixon) 223,346 2,580,000 Colorado (Nixon) 74,171 319,000 elt'ction. Connecticut (Humphrey) 64,840 343,000 STATE: Taxes and the very liberal Democratic state Delaware (Nixon) 7.520 68.000 platform may aid Republican legislative Florida (Nixon) 210,010 773,000 Georgia (Wallace) 155,439 354,000 candidates, but the GOP is expected to Hawaii (Humphrey) 49,899 91,000 have a difficult time keeping its major­ Idaho (Nixon) 76,096 90,000 ity in the State Senate and given no Illinois (Nixon) 134,960 1,321,000 (Nixon) 261,226 662,000 chance to capture the lower house. One Indiana Iowa (Nixon) 142,407 347,000 bright spot: former Ripon Executive Di­ Kansas (Nixon) 175,678 304,000 rector Thomas E. ("Tim") Petri, is run­ Kentucky (Nixon) 64,870 254,000 ning for the State Senate in the 2 nd Louisiana (Nixon) 220,685 297,000 (Humphrey) 48,058 122,000 District. And the daughter of Republi­ Maine Maryland (Humphrey) 20,315 478000 can Attorney General Robert M. Warren, Massachusetts (Humphrey) 702,274 725,000 Chery! Warren, 22, is seeking an Assem­ Michigan (Humphrey) 222,417 1,127,000 bly seat from Green Bay. Minnesota (Humphrey) 199,095 478,000 Mississippi (Wallace) 264,705 297,000 Missouri (Nixon) 20,488 569.000 Wyoming Montana (Nixon) 24,718 84.000 PRESIDENTIAL: Nixon won't pick up many electoral Nebraska (Nixon) 150.379 191000 (Nixon) 12,590 54,000 votes in Wyoming - just three. McGov­ Nevada New Hampshire (Nixon) 24,314 95.000 ern currently has only a limited organ­ New Jersey (Nixon) 61,261 129.000 ization here and only one committed del­ New Mexico (Nixon) 39.611 769,000 egate to the Democratic National Con­ New York (Humphrey) 370,538 2,101,000 vention, Nixon won solid victories in 1960 North Carolina (Nixon) 131,004 750,000 North Dakota (Nixon) 43,900 83,COO and 1968 and if he can surmount the Ohio (Nixon) 90,428 1,313,000 meat-import-quota issue, ht' should be in Oklahoma (Nixon) 148,039 325.000 like Cheyenne. Oregon (Nixon) 49,567 259,000 Pennsylvania (Humphrey) 169,388 1,371,000 SENATORIAL: Sen. Clifford P. Hansen was a pop­ Rhode Island (Humphrey) 124,159 135,000 ular Governor and apparently a popular South Carolina (Nixon) 38,632 391,000 Senator. The major announced Demo­ South Dakota (Nixon) 31,818 88,000 cratic aspirant for the August 22 primary Tennessee (Nixon) 47,800 511,000 Texas (Humphrey) 38,960 1,490,000 is Mike Vinich, a tavern owner. Hansen Utah (Nixon) 82,063 154,000 should be buying the drinks in November, Vermont (Nixon) 14,887 64.000 CONGRESSIONAL: Congressman Teno Roncalio (D) Virginia (Nixon) 147,932 645,000 Washington (Humphrey) 27,527 460,000 won a narrow victory in 1970 and is facing West Vir-;inia (Humphrey) 66,536 217,000 another close contest in 1972, particular­ Wisconsin (Nixon) 61,193 565,000 ly if Nixon makes a really strong show­ Wyoming (Nixon) 25,754 40,000 ing-. The August 22 Republican primary Dist. of Col. (Humphrey) 108,554 111,000 will be a tossup between State Sen. John TOTALS - Nixon Margin, 510,314; New Young Patton, 42, a moderate-conservative and Voters, 25,125,000. Bill Kidd, 28, a rightwing Casper stock­ tl

36 Ripon F omm ------.

" chance of winning in November. Political Notes This misses a fundamental flaw in the analogy - while Goldwater AN ARMY OF IDEOLOGUES won only one contested primary The pundits are all trying to fig- by similar efforts. But Eisenhower (and that by the narrowest of mar­ ure out where they went wrong on and Stevenson also relied on the gins), McGovern will go into the McGovern, and they are coming up help of party machines, such as convention with more than ten with pat answers like the unusual Thomas Dewey's and Jacob Arvey's. solid primary victories. Besides the dedication of his workers, anti- There are still aging politicos who obvious implications for McGov­ Establishmentarianism, and the Mc- believe that Presidential nomina- ern's greater electoral appeal, this Govern Commission rules. tions can be won by a few well- suggests that his workers have de­ Anyone who has been watching placed telephone calls, and their veloped in many states the kinds the decline of American political preponderance on George Romney's of campaigning skills which the party organization, and in particular planning staff in 1967 helped to Goldwaterites, adept only at caucus the demise of the national conven- doom his ambitions for 1968. tactics, never had. Goldwater's sole tion as a decision-making arena, But armies of ideologues, such primary victory was in California, should not have been surprised by as those who have fueled the Gold­ where his showing in November, the contours of McGovern's gains. water and McGovern efforts, are relative to Nixon's in 1960, was Party organization, as even Mayor not the only alternative to machines. fifth highest outside the South; Daley is discovering, is a myth; the John Kennedy in 1960 built a ma­ those electioneering skills learned image of block workers pounding chine that took the nomination by in June did his cause some good. their beats, distributing literature destroying state machines from the But there is another area in which and soliciting voter preferences, is top rather than the bottom. In the Goldwater-McGovern analogy a happy bedtime story to give older Ohio, he won the grudging sup­ may hold, to the detriment of the politicians a false sense of security. port of Governor Mike DiSalle by Dakotan: already his party's "mod­ Were party organizations via­ threatening him with opposition in erates" are leveling charges of ex­ ble, Kevin White and Milton Shapp the primary, and in Oregon he tremism and unpopularity at him. could have "delivered" Massachu- squashed Wayne Morse's favorite­ No small part of Goldwater's total setts and Pennsylvania to Muskie, son candidacy by winning that collapse was due to the obvious and John Gilligan and John Tun­ state's primary. The spectacle of a discomfort of respected Republican ney could have held Ohio and Cal­ young, wealthy, Catholic Presiden­ moderates like Rockefeller, Rom­ ifornia in reserve for him. Instead, tial hopeful from a small state ney, and Scranton. Should Dem­ Muskie was only the latest in a steamrollering favorite sons is one ocratic rightists and centrists follow long line of candidate to discover hardly consistent with strong party suit with regard to McGovern, their the non-transferability of personal government. fears of a Nixon landslide will be­ allegiance. If Shapp, for example, Equally dramatic has been the come self-fulfilling prophecy. had an organization based on party decline of the convention as a cru­ Yet if such rightists and centrists ties and not personal appeal, there cial part of the Presidential selec­ secretly welcome a McGovern dis­ would have been little difficulty tion process. Not since 1952 - be­ aster, they should remember two energizing its members for Muskie. fore some of this year's voters were things about the Goldwater prece­ If party organization is gone, born - has either party's conven­ dent: first, that it destroyed the po­ what has replaced it? The ideolog­ tion played an important role in the litical careers of many Republicans ical and personal cadres of George making of the nominee; every nom­ of all shades that November; sec­ McGovern, which replace establish­ inee since then has recorded a ma­ ond, that Goldwaterism did not die ed party cadres in caucuses, are not jority on the first ballot, with no in November 1964. Dean Burch, new to Presidential politics, nor did necessity of vote changes to decide Richard Kleindienst, and of course they originate with Barry Gold­ the outcome. The infiltrate-from­ William Rehnquist all got their water's effort eight years ago. The below machines of Goldwater and jobs via the Goldwater campaign, landmark study of the 1952 nom­ McGovern and the coup-from­ and the next Democratic President inating contests by Paul David, above organization of John Ken­ will have to deal with the remarka­ Malcolm Moos, and Ralph Gold­ nedy were able to decide the out­ ble McGovern people. No single man demonstrated the extent to comes before the gavel dropped to election represents Armageddon in which Eisenhower relied on en- open their respective conventions. American politics, and Democratic thusiastic volunteers, especially in And yet many have used the regulars will have to put up with crucial states like Texas, and the Goldwater-McGovern analogy to the party's left from now on. Stevenson campaigns were marked suggest that McGovern has no - HOW ARD L. REITER

July, 1972 37 While attention has been focused on the safety of consumers of manufactured goods across the nation, far less concern has been shown for the safety of the producers of these goods. Workmen's compensation for illness and injury is no longer an adequate goal,. workmen's safet, may require new national legislation and certainly will entail more stringent government regulation. Here Steven Haft, a Ripon member recently associated with the United Auto Workers, describes the problem, which is likely to become a significant public issue as well as moral challenge for businessmen and politicians in the months and years ahead.

The Human ('ost of Production

by Steven Haft

As our economy churns out its bil­ lion dollar gross national product - consisting, in large part, of ever more glossy merchandise and sophisticated services - it continues to pay a grave national price. For some strange rea­ son, this nation tolerates with scarce­ ly and audible complaint the perpetra­ work force. Unions often lack both the and retired miners who die of black tion of a dire human tragedy in our interest and the expertise to confront lung each year, according to Dr. factories and other work sites. this problem. The Federal govern­ Donald Whorton, Task Force Director According to the government's raw ment is underfunding and disregard­ of the Medical Committee for Human and understated figures, 400,000 work­ ing its occupational health mandate. Rights, are statistically invisible. As­ ers have died and 50,000,000 have The state governments will not act bestos workers die of lung cancer. been disabled from on-the-job injuries for fear of losing industries. The Machinists lose their hearing and since the Second World War. During leading private research organizations inhale shredded slivers of metal. the past few years the reported an­ working in industrial safety and Textile workers contract "Brown nual toll has reached 14,000 deaths health are owned by the corporate Lung" from the particles of lint they and 2.5 million disabling injuries. sector. Many physicians with the back­ are forced to breathe. Welders are Furthermore, a U.S. Public Health ground to recognize and treat occupa­ fatally poisoned by cadmium fumes. Service study among 1,000,000 work­ tional diseases are affiliated with the Farmers succumb to nitrogen dioxide. ers in the Chicago area in 1968 culpable businesses in their localities. Steelworkers contract cancer working found that 46 percent (460,000) All across the board the worker is around the coke ovens. Cobblers, were exposed to "serious and urgent" the victim. painters, finishers, and dry cleaners health hazards, and equally significant, There is little disagreement that die from inhaling benzine and sol­ a U.S. Department of Labor survey the government's industrial illness fig­ vent vapors. Beryllium workers and two years later found that "health ures represent only a fraction of the their families waste away with beryl­ and safety hazards" ranked as the actual toll. "The occasional man who liosis and beryllium poisoning some­ number two complaint on a scale of is crushed by heavy machinery becomes times fatal. These victims tend to go 19 sources of worker discontent. a statistic," says Tony Mazzocchi, Leg­ uncounted. The reasons for the continuing car­ islative Director of the Oil Chemical Excessive noise is probably the most nage are not hard to find. Corpora­ and Atomic Workers Union, "but the pervasive occupational health prob­ tions appear more willing to payout man who withers away with cancer, lem. A ranking official of the Bureau an occasional pittance in compensatory emphysema, or brain damage does of Labor Standards said last year at costs than to adequately protect their not." The estimated 4,000 coal miners a Ripon meeting in Washington that,

38 Ripon Forum "We could put the whole textile in­ ploys a force of 103 game wardens. cies. According to the bylaws of the dustry out of business if we enforced One of the major reasons for the organization, standards can only be noise standards - probably most of inadequacy of state statutes and en­ set when a "consensus" is reached. the steel industry as well." It is gen­ forcement is the fear of driving in­ The organization's size, of course, erally accepted that continuous noise dustries elsewhere. It is a fear well­ makes achieving a consensus on any levels greater than 80 decibels can be founded in fact, as the State of Penn­ standard difficult and its domination hazardous and levels over 90 are like­ sylvania learned recently when it by industry leaves agreement on ly to seriously impair hearing. Yet legislated a ban on a chemical used strong standards a virtual impossibili­ recently, an expert witness appear­ in making textile dyes. The chemical ty. ANSI further complicates this ing before the Senate Labor Commit­ clearly caused cancer in 3 out of 5 ,machinery by pricing their compiled tee stated that many of the nation's workers who were occupationally ex­ standards listings at about $300 per textile weave rooms subject their thou­ posed to it for 30 years or more. Yet, copy, thereby leaving them unavail­ sands of occupants to levels in excess despite the compelling necessity of able to workers and most lOCal unions. of 100 decibels. Since a "decibel" is such a ban, a number of plants al­ One simple compound for which measured on a logarithmic scale, the most immediately moved to states standards have been set is carbon difference between 80 and 100, 20 where worker health was pursued less monoxide. The limit presently prom­ decibels, for instance, is not twice as diligently, rather than alter the proc­ ulgated for worker exposure to CO loud as 10 decibels - it is 100 times ess. in the air is 50 parts per million, as loud. These conditions persist al­ having been 100 ppm up until as though an article in a 1970 issue of Federal Action recently as 5 years ago. By comparison On the federal level the effort was the Industrial Hygiene Journal stated the standard for worker exposure to that noise pollution in textile mills divided between the Federal govern­ carbon monoxide in the Soviet Union could be controlled at an average cost ment and assorted private research or­ and Czechoslovakia is 18 ppm and of 50¢ a month per worker. ganizations. The Federal program prior the National Air Pollution Control to the 1970 Act comprised some reg­ Administration has, in the course of It was following the "muckrakings" ulating, a minimal amount of investi­ their development of overall clean air of the early 1900s that government gating, and an effort to encourage the standards, reported adverse health ef­ first felt the need to make some promulgation of standards. fects in individuals exposed to 10-15 effort to monitor factory conditions. The general degree of competence The various states took the initiative ppm for 8 hours. Foundry and garage is seen in the Federal performance workers work in such concentrations and they maintained almost exclusive as a standards catalyst. Probably the 8 hours a day, 5 and 6 days a week, responsibility for occupational safety greatest need for strict standards is 50 weeks a year. and health until 1970 when Con­ in the protection of workers and the gress passed an industrial health bill general public from dangerous chem­ Workmen's Compensation is prob­ which temporarily transfers authority icals. A recent Public Health Service ably the government's best known re­ to Washington. bulletin estimated "that a new and sponse to the plight of the working By and large the states were criminal­ potentially toxic chemical is introduced man. The country's oldest form of ly negligent in discharging their man­ into industry '" every 20 minutes." social insurance, it is also the most date. According to a Department of But these approl'imately 50,000 chem­ antiquated. There has been no major Labor survey of industrial health laws ical substances in regular industrial federal legislation in this area since in the 50 states, "only a few met the use only about 600 have been tested 1936 despite the tremendous increase standards set by the American Stan­ and assigned safe tolerance levels. in knowledge of what constitutes an dards Association." (One of the most Even these 600 are not examined for environmental hazard in industry. And prominent of the numerous private mutagenic effectSc and as a result it like most occupational health pro­ groups which play a significant role may be years before we are even par­ grams, it is administered at the state in the industrial health picture by tially aware of the real extent of their level. The competitive economic pos­ providing legitimacy for a whole range damage. ture of the various states and their of tragically inadequate standards) . Most of the operating standards re­ widely varying administrative capabil­ The states vary widely in their ac­ garding toxicity in the work environ­ ities has led to a relatively stagnant tivity in this area. Ohio is a fair ment have been established by pri­ legislative climate. example of one of the more active. vate (although quasi-governmental) Virtually no state which has acted Ohio has about 130,000 factories cov­ standards-setting organizations such as at all in this area provides the 67 per­ ered under its industrial safety law the American National Standards In­ cent of the lost weekly wage estab­ and although hundreds of Ohio work­ stitute ( ANSI) and the American lished as a goal by the original fed­ ers annually are killed on the job Conference of CJovernment and In­ eral legislation. Moreover, Workmen's and conceivably thousands contract oc­ dustrial Hygienists (AGGIH). Compensation is further impaired by: cupationally-related diseases, in one The Americaq National Standards • a restrictive medical benefit sched­ recent year only five factories were Institute is a multi-million dollar non­ ule cited for punitive action and not one profit, voluntary. organization com­ • rising medical costs was punished. In a strange allocation posed of 900 companies, 160 trade • exclusion of 20 percent of the of priorities, while employing only 50 associations, six international unions, working force due to numerous industrial safety inspectors, Ohio em- and a few scattered government agen- statutory exemptions

July, 1972 39 • the exclusion by statute of all majority of the inspections came on­ t~e past. three years demonstrated per­ diseases not listed specifically in ly following serious industrial acci­ sistent disregard for the subject. White the legislation dents. Often the findings of these so­ House operatives played a key role in • minimal coverage for agricultural called inspections are so misleading opposing enactment of effective stan­ workers that they might just as well have not dards and enforcement machinery un­ • a scale which places arbitrary val­ taken place at all. .Joseph "Chip" der the two most significant pieces ues on the loss of particular parts Yablonski of the Miners Research of worker health legislation enacted of the body Project in Washington D.C. recently during its tenure: the 1970 Occupa­ • inadequate emphasis on rehabil­ told this author of one such report: tional Safety and Health Act and the itation Coal Mine Safety Act. An inspection followed an acci­ • underfunded and understaffed dent in Finley Mine 16 in Hyden, During the 89th session of Con­ state and federal administrative Ky. (where an explosion occurred gr.ess, the Administration attempted, and research facilities a month later in which 38 miners with. ~ome success, to eliminate key • the usurpation of many admin­ were killed, leaving nearly 100 proVISions of the 1970 Occupational istrative functions by insurance children orphaned). In this partic­ Safety and Health Bill, as proposed carriers ular accident a 24-year-old miner by Senator Harrison Williams, Chair­ • physicians who refuse to cooper­ was killed while operating a bat­ man of the Senate Committee on ate with Compensation boards on tery-powdered tractor used for re­ Labor and Public Welfare. While the behalf of their patients. moving coal. The tractor had a official White House position vacil­ The problem of industry-associated history of malfunctions in the late~ between vagaries and paying lip physicians, moreover, is serious, if we "contact switch" used for changing service to the Labor Department's en­ are to believe Dr. William Shepard, gears. The mine foremen and op­ couragement of relatively strong pro­ former chairman of the Council of erators were aware of this condi­ visions. But the Secretary of Commerce Occupational Health of the A.M.A. tion but chose to keep the equip­ lobbied strenuously and undaunted for Shepard wrote that "the physician·s ment in use. Finally, one day when another bill and for a series of amend­ p~ace in the industrial system is quite the driver threw the tractor into ments designed, in the judgement of different from that to which he has forward it slipped into reverse - organized labor, to insure industry's become accustomed in private practice. jerking backward and crushing the continued domination of the standards He is not top man as he is in the miner's skull against the low ceil­ and enforcement mechanisms. Thanks hospital or his private office. His serv­ ing. The Kentucky Bureau of Mines to the efforts of a number of unions, ices are strictly ancillary to the main inspected the scene to determine a handful of legislators, and some pri­ purpose of the business: production who was responsible and concluded vate organizations - including a co­ at a profit. His value depends on his that the cause of death was that alition of environmental groups found­ willingness and ability to work with the operator was not facing in the ed expressly for this purpose - the others to achieve that main purpose." direction of the movement of the Secretary's efforts were only partially Although millions have benefitted vehicle. successful. from Workmen's Compensation, it Over the six month period prior In December of 1970 the Presi­ must be recognized that it generally dent signed into law the Occupational c~mes too little and too late and pro­ to the explosion in Finley Mines 15 and 16 there were 55 serious fed­ Safety and Health Act. It covers vides no real incentive to industry 57,000,000 workers and, among other t~ reduce the incidence of occupational eral and state mine safety violations recorded in those two shafts alone statutes, replaces the Walsh-Healy disease. In any case the existence of Act. Responsibility for enforcement is compensation must not continue to be and reported by the authorities to the Finley brothers. This does not in­ placed with the Department of Labor, an :xcuse for urgently needed pre­ while Health, Education, and Welfare ventive measures. clude post-accident reports like the one above. During this period they is charged with research and evalua­ With regard to the Federal investi­ tion of occupational diseases. The gating effort, let it suffice to say that were penalized only once, when they were forced to shut down for two stronger provisions of the Act in­ until 1971 the government employ­ clude giving inspectors the right of ed a maximum of 27 inspectors, 5 days to make repairs. The two days coincided with a weekend when the entry into any plant at any reasonable field hygienists, and $500,000 annual­ time; every workplace is now cover­ mines were dosed any way. ly to cover the 30,000,000 workers ed; workers have the right to request who were entitled to protection under There have been and continue to an inspection and the Department of the Walsh-Healy Act of the 1930s, be numerous examples of this sort of Labor is bound to respond to all writ­ which until this year was by far the mis-, mal-, and nonfeasance at all ten requests; and employees have the government's greatest responsibility in levels of industrial safety enforcement. right to have a representative accom­ worker protection. In addition, figures pany t~e compliance officer during the collected by the Center for the Study Administration Stance InspectIOn. Among the weaker provi­ of Responsive Law indicated that 90 Occupational health and safety is sions, less stringent than some existing percent of inspections conducted under one issue on which the position of state laws, is a loophole big enough Walsh-Healy uncovered violations. the Nixon Administration has been to fly an C-5A through, which allows Largely because of understaffing the clear and consistent. It has during the Secretary of Labor to provide such

40 Ripon FOrlJm r ------,

"reasonable tolerances and exemptions who are inspected amounts to only can "Syndicate" and consequently to and from any or all provisions of $18.44 - a mere tap on the wrist, is close to top White House assis­ this Act as he may find necessar; and about the price of a fancy dinner for tant Bill Timmons and to Lew proper to avoid serious impairment to two." One employer was fined $6. be­ Helm, Deputy Assistant Secretary the national defense." cause his workers had to eat their of Interior, whose responsibilities $57,000,000 was budgeted for the lunch near dangerous toxic substances. include overseeing the activities of Act's implementation in fiscal '72 by In another case Carl Carlson, safe­ the Bureau. Failor should feel right President Nixon. Equal to $1 for ty chairman of UA W local 6, told at home with Helm's other col­ every worker covered, this amount a recent meeting of his experiences leagues, one of whom is a former was divided between the Departments with the International Harvester Com­ lobbyist for the American Mining of Labor, and Health, Education, and pany in Melrose, Illinois. Carlson Congress (the industry trade as­ Welfare. Much of the money, how­ charged that the annual report sub­ sociation) and the other, the for­ ever, in effect went to support the mitted to the Labor Deportment false­ mer director of the Colorado Min­ preparation of state plans. This year ly reported no fatalities or occupa­ ing Association. the President has budgeted $97,000,- tional illnesses, and he said he was These Administration shortcomings 000 under the Act. The Department refused permission to use a noise me­ represent only a small piece of the dis­ of Labor will receive $67,000,000 but ter purchased by the local. So he re­ mal picture of our larger national fail­ immediately dispense half of that pri­ quested a Federal inspection. Seven ure in this area. Seeking answers is marily to pay for paper-shuffling in months later, the government finally difficult. Yesterday's stock response - the preparation of state plans. inspected the plant and cited Harvest­ that the laws are completely inad­ er for 331 violations, including noise Meaningful research and enforce­ equate - expired the moment the violations and maintaining a welding newest package of occupational safe­ ment require money and personnel. area where the iron oxide level was 11 ty and health legislation became law. As of January '72 the Federal Govern­ times the prescribed standard. Man­ So the answers lie elsewhere. ment had only 14 industrial hygien­ agement quickly appealed the sum­ ists on the payroll to do the so­ Some believe that the government monses. Until the Review Commission phisticated health hazard inspections has resisted the mandate to improve hears the case at some future date, required at the nation's workplaces. the quality of our work environments. International Harvester need neither They expect to have 50 by this month The departments defensively inSISt and have no plans to hire any more. comply nor pay penalties. that we expect too much too soon. There are presently 300 general in­ Too many in Congress agree. Mine Safety spectors on the Federal payroll, with Still others blame President Nixon plans for a total force of 500. To­ In the much better known area of Coal Mine Safety, the Nixon White and the White House for not treating gether, that adds up to 550 trained the occupational health situation as an inspectors to protect the lives of 57,- House has demonstrated a comparable lack of commitment, despite receipt emergency requiring a full-scale mo­ 000,000 workers at over 4,000,000 bilization of federal resources. More­ separate work sites. of a strong mandate from the Con­ gress to pursue vigorous improvement over, many critics say that political The Secretary of Labor is charged in the working conditions of the na­ maneuverings in the departments by with promulgating the regulations un­ tion's 125,000 active coal miners. the White House have done irrevoca­ der which the Act will be implement­ Faced with a Mine Safety Regulations ble harm to the cause of worker ed. This power combined with Sec­ bill, the Administration proceeded to: health. tion 16, the "tolerances and exemp­ a. Attempt to veto the bill as infla­ Wide criticism is aimed at industry, tions" loophole, gives him consider­ tionary. which has maintained a hand-in-glove able latitude in shaping Federal en­ b. Name a board to oversee Coal relationship with their supposed reg­ forcement. He is responsible only to ulators. They have resisted, defiantly a "National Advisory Council," chair­ Mine Safety Research whose mem­ bers are largely either political ed by Howard Pyle, a conservative Re­ in some instances, the Congressional hacks, industry hacks or others publican and industry ally who re­ mandate that the health and safety of simply unqualified to examine coal portedly professes the attitude that the worker shall be the first "priority workers are safer on their jobs than mine safety techniques. and concern" of all in industry. they are on the highways. An example c. Nominate J. Richard Lucas as Di­ Neither the medical profession nor the of the Secretary's exercise of his flex­ rector of the Bureau of Mines. unions escape blame. Lucas was so patently inadequate ibJ.e powers under the Act is seen in While there have been some real and blatantly wedded to the coal the Labor Department's levying of accomplishments, one must conclude industry that his name was sub­ fines for noncompliance. The Act per­ that, despite the legislation and the mits the Labor Department to impose ~equently withdrawn. lofty pronouncements, industry, labor fines of up to $10,000 per violation. d. Name Ed Failor to oversee coal According to Frank Wallick, who mine safety enforcement. Failor's and government have not yet reconcil­ monitors OSHA for the United Auto only qualification it appears is that ed themselves to the principle that the Workers in Washington, the average he formerly was involved with the worker, as Congress put it, is our fine levied "on those few employers ultra-conservative Young Republi- "most precious resource."

July, 1972 41 The U.S. military has been severely criticized in recent years, largely for carrying out policies - such as the Vietnam War - dictated by U.s. civilian leadership. To a great extent, therefore, the debate over civilian control of the military might better be addressed to thequ4Stion of civilian control of the politi­ cians, or more broadly to the issue of the demilitarization of civilian opinion. Peter Welch, a Philadelphia Ripon member, cIITrently working in Taiwan, treats all these matters in the following article. But he focltses on the ways in which the military itself can be inz,'igorated and reformed for the specialized and often non-martial challenges of protracted preparedness in the nuclear age. In this difficult assignment, the military needs to acquire new virtues and new support from the society at large. Welch concliides with a program by which these goals ran be achietJed.

"IV118n,.- -I- Control

by Peter Welch

Last month's disclosures of free­ over our armed forces. have never been extensively tried. lance bombing raids on North Viet­ The ways to control the military Yet, because of the President's depen­ nam ~ against the specific orders of are many - Congressional regula­ dence on the judgments of thousands civilian authorities - raise once again, tion, administrative overview, organ­ of officers, the country cannot main­ during this tragically revealing war, izational changes, decreased appropria­ tain control of policy unless there is the question of exorbitant military in­ tions, and changed personnel policies. a civilian input into the processes by fluence. While the Pentagon's profile During the Cold War, civilian con­ which these people are selected, train­ is high, the time is ripe for consider­ trol has focused on organizational ed, and promoted. ing how to reaffirm civilian control form, not substanC(~; personnel changes The biggest current controversy over

42 Ripon Forum r

personnel policies is between the Vol­ Even if one assumes a degree of of society would decrease. While such unteer Armed Force and the draft. draftee influence, what percentage of shifts may be in response to grow­ Although the case for the Volunteer the military should be conscripted to ing disenchantment with the military, Armed Force is multi-sided, of prima­ safeguard our liberties - 33 percent, no changes in fact occurred until af­ ry importance is that it will strength­ 50 percent, or 75 percent? According ter the Gates Commission had recom­ en civilian control of the military. The to all estimates, draftees will not con­ mended, and the President had ap­ strengthening will come both through stitute more than 12 percent of the proved in principle, a Volunteer the civilian influence of volunteers Armed Services. The pre-Vietnam fig­ Armed Force. from within and through their use of ure of 8 percent is probably closer. economic power from without: by in­ It is unlikely that such a small per­ High-Echelon Entry creasing the market price of their serv­ centage of powerless enlisted men With a Volunteer Armed Force, ices for unpopular wars. can affect the Department of Defense. the military will also be forced to The difficulties of the argument that The argument that draftees prevent promote lateral entry, offering volun­ the draft increases civilian influence the formation of an isolated military teers the opportunity to work within are many. The influx of draftees has caste ignores not only the insignifi­ their specialty as they "serve their not perceptibly affected the military's cance of draftee influence on policy country and see the world." (At the behavior in any desirable way. The but also the already close-knit pro­ same time the military will have to supposed mechanism by which citizen­ fessionalism of tlle military officer offer to other potential volunteers the soldiers control the generals has not corps. chance to learn a skill.) It will have yet been revealed. Historically, they The probl::m of conscription is not to recruit men into higher ranks and have not mutinied in the face of dis­ how to avoid a professional military, excuse these individuals from basic tasteful orders. In fact, there is no for we already have one. The issue training. way through which small numbers of is what type of people professional In the past the Army has not taken draftees, holding no rank above cap­ military men should be and what re­ advantage of many useful skills with­ tain, will control the policies of the lationship they should have with the in its ranks. For instance, of 270 men strictly hierarchical military organiza­ rest of American society. with architecture degrees in 1969, on­ tion. We must have general and flag rank ly 8 were used in their specialty, The closest thing to a draftee in­ officers who have a rerspective on while the Army had need of 394 ar­ fluence mentioned by draft support­ American society reaching far beyond chitects. Of the 912 men with account­ ers, is the exposure of military scan­ the problems of combat or national Ing degrees, only 62 were used as dals. In the My Lai massacre, how­ security. This breadth of vision is pro­ accountants while the Army needed ever, the first soldier to report having moted by a Volunteer Armed Service. 463. The changes which the military seen the killings was Sgt. Bernhardt, Under a volunteer system, the Army will have to institute will be similar who was not a draftee, but who left could not remain an isolated institu­ to the program the Seabees develop­ college to fight this war as a volun­ tion and be able to attract men for ed when faced with World War II teer. While Sgt. Bernhardt did not service. manpower shortages. participate in the massacre, Lt. Cal­ It is paradoxical truth, therefore, In an age where only 29 percent ley, who joined the Army just one that the ending of citizen-soldiers of military personnel are in purely mil­ step ahead of the draft, was found itary specialties, the opportunities for guilty for the incident. will strengthen civilian influence in the military. To attract civilians, the lateral entry are great. Even professional soldiers will not Armed Services must "civilianize" mil­ Because the real cost of draftees as a group be so dependent on the itary life and basic training, because is much higher than their compensa­ Army for their careers that they can­ first-term enlisted men, as a group, tion, draftees are often used where not rebel against policies they regard would no longer be powerless in the civilians would be cheaper in real illegitimate. Projections by the Gates face of the military establishment. And costs. As wages of servicemen are in­ Commission* indicate that approxima­ indeed, the very threat of a Volun­ creased, civilians will become cheap­ tely 325,000 men will annually leave teer Armed Force has prompted mil­ er than soldiers in budgetary terms. the military under a volunteer system itary reforms. The Gates Commission estimated that - a drop of only 25 percent. Of In the future the pressure of a Vol­ 117,000 civilians could be substituted those, roughly 215,000 or 65 percent for servicemen in a force of 2.5 mil­ will leave after a single tour of duty, unteer Armed Force may well force expanded off-base living. As the Gates lion men. These positions are in ad­ a drop of first-term turnover of less ministration and medical and logistics than a third. If increased turnover is Commission noted, not only does a serviceman often live on base and support. Some changes of this type desirable for exposing military scan­ are already occurring. dal, concern might be more effective­ shop in the PX but also he may send ly focused upon the higher ranks in his children to a school filled with The reforms brought about by the the officer corps and among Depart­ children whose parents are also in the threat of a Volunteer Armed Force ment of Defense civilians. military and his family to a military have instilled a new civilian orienta­ hospital. If more military compensa­ tion in the entire military bureaucracy. • A study commission, headed by former De­ fense Secretary Thomas Gates, which ad­ tion were paid in cash and less in As the idea of a volunteer force gains vocated creation of an all-Volunteer Armed Fcr:;e. kind, military isolation from the rest momentum, the responsiveness of the

July, 1972 43 Army will increase in direct propor­ trol is plausible. Middle class parents, has approved an amendment to limit tion. General Westmoreland has a however, are far less vocal in political the number of men the President can special assistant for the Modern Vol­ protest against the war than their off­ conscript to 150,000 a year. As the unteer Army and gave this lieutenant spring on college campuses. The re­ ceiling could be raised only by :t general considerable authority. action of many otherwise apathetic joint Congressional resolution, Con­ gressional control apparently would be The second liberal pro-draft argu­ parents to the draft has. often been to reinstated. Although the amendment ment is that the draft forces the po­ support the war as a means of sup­ porting their sons in combat. In dem­ is a step in the right direction, it re­ litically powerful middle class to pro­ onstrations and marches, the more rad­ mains a poor halfway measure. test wars. As Senator Kennedy states ical students (on which the television the argument: Any time throughout the last five cameras naturally focused) forced a "It is unwise to insulate from years of war, the Congress could have choice in many viewers' minds between asserted Congressional control. What the horrors of war, middle and up­ the unshaven marchers and the Pres­ per class Americans, who might it lacked was the will not the means ident of the United States. Following to oppose directly the President. To lead the protest agair:st senseless the three largest demonstrations, sup­ foreign adventures. I frankly would stop the future Vietnams, the peace port for the President's policy rose. forces in Congress need to be able question, for example, whether the In contrast to both World War I current pressure for deescalation of to focus debate around the only is­ and the Korean War where support sue which can compare in emotional the Indo-China war would be as for the war fell off quickly, in this great if young men from every so­ intensity with national security - war demonstrations helped to maintain the principle that no American should cial background were not threaten­ support. The draft has thus given us ed with service in that war." be drafted in peacetime. Unless this the worse of both worlds - supply­ principle is established, a President That conscription is a necessary pre­ ing the military with unlimited man­ can always ask for "small" increases condition for an aggressive military power at ostensibly rock bottom rates of the ceiling and escalate gradually. policy, however, is apparent from the and helping to maintain support for To end the peacetime draft would history of Napoleon, the British in the war. destroy the facility with which Pres­ the American Revolution, and the Those who defend the draft on the idents have circumvented Congression­ Prussians, but it is nowhere more ap­ hostage argument take the same moral al authority. Without an ongoing draft parent than in the Vietnam War. It view of our citizens that the military no President will be able to imple­ was the draft that enabled President advocates - seeing draftees as only ment a policy requiring massive num­ Johnson to constantly escalate troop means to an end other than them­ ber of soldiers without convincing levels throughout 1965 with a mini­ selves. One group views them as re­ Congress that the national security is mum of public debate. Had the na­ placeable parts in the war machine. directly and immediately threatened. tion not retained a peacetime draft, The other views them as hostages to A ceiling on conscription recognizes Johnson would have been forced to force political control over the mili­ the problem, but does not effectively request one from the Congress. With­ tary. Both philosophies are repulsive. deal with it. out such a tradition of conscription In the history of the Vietnam War, Congress would have authorized it three facts stand out dearly. First, the The Officer Corps only after a lengthy debate and pos­ draft allowed us to become involved. While the Volunteer Armed Force sibly a declaration of war. The polit­ Second, the draft permitted us to re­ will strengthen civilian control of ics of it would have embarrassed main involved. And third, for eight the military, especially in the enlisted Johnson, who ran on a peace plank in long years this nation has remained ranks, other methods are needed to 1964. at war, inspite of illusions that the control the already professional of­ As the war continued, its burdens draft would force our exit. Our with­ ficer corps. For those who still believe increasingly fell on the draftee. By drawal now from infantry combat is (for whatever reason) that the draft 1970, of Army infantry riflemen in hardly a tribute to the efficacy of the aids civilian control, the alternatives Vietnam, 88 percent were draftees; draft in controlling the military. for control are many and varied, and 10 percent, first-term volunteers; and In contrast, forcing the military to do not require abridgement of our two percent, career men. The draft be dependent on volunteers for in­ liberties. insulates the ranks of the career sol­ fantry soldiers, a Volunteer Armed Promotion to all general and flag diers from the consequences of con­ Force strengthens popular control not ranks is made by promotion boards tinuation of the war. At the same only of generals but also of the Pres­ (officially called selection boards), time it provides them with the promo­ ident. It adds a second channel of which are in theory chosen by the tion opportunities which come with control - the economic power of not service secretaries. In practice, the an enlarged Army and if they choose, volunteering for an unjustified war - board members are chosen by the serv­ with short-term combat experience to the usual channel of trying to stop ice chief of staff and nominally ap­ necessary for promotion in the high­ it through the political process. proved by the secretary. Most civil­ er ranks. Implicitly recognizing that the draft ians, either in the Department of The idea of holding middle clas~ enables us to get into unpopular wars, Defense or the Congress, have been sons hostage to force political con- the Senate Armed Service Committee reluctant to interfere with the process

44 Ripon Forum r

for fear of charges of playing politics. In the past, interservice promotion Freedom to Fail The service academy graduates have boards have been recommended. But Even better than below the zone a virtual monopoly among the highest interservice bc-uds or board members promotion would be jumping ranks. ranks. Although only 5 percent of the from other services would hinder, not A few outstanding officers could be officers are academy graduates, all but aid, civilian control. It is isolation rewarded for their initiative and crea­ 11 of 47 Army lieutenant generals from society, not competition between tive problem solving. The name of graduated from the academies and 7 services, which is to be feared. In al­ the promotion game is to avoid making of those 11 are in specialized com­ most every modern nation, the divi­ waves. Promotion favors the mediocre mand such as logistics or engineer­ sions of military forces into separate performance with no mistakes instead ing. At full general only one out groups has been used to bolster civil­ of the brilliant career with errors. Of­ of 16 is a Reserve Officers Training ian control. In Congressional debates ficers need the freedom to fail and Corps (ROTC) graduate. The ardent (such as over the ABM) , services reward for risky nonconformist action. sometimes supply information to scut­ discrimination against ROTC grad­ The military, regardless of how it tle the programs of sister services. uates is virtually complete at all flag is recruited, also needs more direct ex­ ranks in the Navy. The Air Force To aid chief executive involvement posure to civilian values. The Armed is more open than the other services in promotion, Congress' Armed Serv­ Services rotate officers every three but is expected to discriminate more ices Committees might review care­ years to give them a broad experience as Colorado Springs graduates rise fully promotions to lieutenant and full in the military. Since three years is through the officer corps. general and vice and full admiral. the time it takes to learn a job well, Discrimination exists against sup­ Since all appointments above lieu­ the procedure is wasteful. Its philoso­ port officers in all services, as well as tenant and ensign must be approved phy is also wrong. We do not need against ROTC graduates. Although 52 by the Congress, the mechanism for military generalists, we need general­ percent of all colonels are in support control is available. Not until a man ists, period: that is, men who are com­ positions, only 28 percent of briga­ becomes a three-star general does he petent in their specialty but who know diers are. At the rank of lieutenant influence policy. With less than 200 the needs and thinking of American and full generals, the figure falls to men in ~l services of that rank or society. Instead, officers might be ro­ 10 percent. The percentage of officers higher, and with the principal jobs tated in and out of the military every in operations commands is 33 for colo­ in the Army, numbering only 24, ac­ five years. nels, 54 for brigadiers, and 73 for cording to Army Registrar, Congres­ Sabbaticals or leaves of absence lieutenant and full generals. Since sional review becomes possible. All might be required both for graduate officers in operations have duties un­ these men and their counterparts in studies (a majority of generals now like any citizens, a disproportional the other services might testify be­ have MA's) and for other non-military number in the highest ranks lessens fore Congressional committees before exposure. If men remain in specialist the similarity of thinking between the confirmations. careers (such as research or com­ munications), as the Fitzhugh Com­ military and civilian worlds. To invigorate the military, vigor­ mission urged, they will have expertise ous leadership from within the ranks Boards for promotion to and with­ to offer to businesses, universities, or must be found. When Secretary of in general and flag ranks should be private foundations. Through civilian War George Dern wanted to modern­ composed of civilians. jobs, their experience will be broad­ ize the Army in 1936, he took Colo­ These boards should not cover ened. Also, retired officers might be nel George Marshall from his "exile" promotion to colonel or to lower ranks asked to return at higher rank if their as a nonconformist at National Guard because the decisions made at those civilian experience has been relevant training duty and promoted him over ranks are not significant enough to to their military responsibilities. While more senior officers. Marshall, in turn, justify civilian involvement, and the rarely taken advantage of, the leg:tl chose vigorous officers. numbers are too large. According to basis for recalling officers is already Ward Just, however, the best men in Promotion boards are allowed to available. For instance, President Ken­ the Army are colonels who never consider only a certain small percent­ nedy recalled General Taylor in 1962. made general. age of officers "below the zone" of Holding civilian jobs will remind Civilian boards could provide more the required seniority. As recommend­ officers that they are not dependent civilian influence than a million draft­ ed halfheartedly by the Fitzhugh Com­ on the military for their livelihood, ees. New ideas from society would be mission and now partially instituted making them more willing to dissent communicated to the military through in the Navy by Admiral Zumwalt, be­ within the ranks. They will further the selection process. Generals and ad­ low the zone promotion should be know that if their promotion is re­ mirals, present and potential, would expanded. To retain the most able fused and they retire early, the wind be forced to judge their actions in men, rapid advancement must be may blow in a different direction in the light of the country's thinking. offered. Promotion with the herd the future. They may be rewarded These boards are an excellent way to creates a homogeneous officer corps and by coming back from retirement .it break the grip that academy graduates wastes the most vigorous years of of­ a higher rank. and operations officers have on the ficers' lives by having them work their The military remains a relatively Armed Services. way up. closed system because only one career

July, 1972 45 pattern is available: commission as plaints by three junior officers, all of In the nuclear age, national defense a second lieutenant or ensign and whom were ROTC graduates. Among is constant and often technical work. promotion rank by rank. The only other things, Arnheiter had ordered None the less, whether the nation route to becoming a general or ad­ the shooting of Vietnamese civilians ultimately benefits from the service miral is through 20-odd years of serv­ on shore. To Annapolis-graduate Arn­ academies is too complex a question to ice - 20 years of taking orders, of heiter's defense came his executive be answered fully here. But it is ap­ learning the Army's procedures, and officer, a captain and, two rear ad­ parent that they create obstacles to of internalizing its norms. Almost no mirals, all of whom were academy civilian control which have been rare­ other organization requires 20 years graduates. It is such relationships ly discussed. A full-scale study of of service within it before influence which the academies create and which their role is needed. is gained. To open up this system, makes civilian control so difficult. civilians must be offered commissions While there is no evidence that War Colleges at all levels including that of general training at the academies significantly On the way to becoming generals and flag rank. This procedure will changes attitudes, the attitudes which or admirals, most officers also attend be most successful with men in the cadets enter and graduate with one of the War Colleges. In spite of their thirties being offered commis­ are different from ROTC cadets' at­ recently rising intellectual standards, sions from major to colonel. titudes. For instance, of Annapolis these institutions still serve as trans­ cadets 33 percent thought a military During World War II men were mission belts for policy instead of in­ take-over might be justified and 28 directly commissioned up to the rank novators. It is private research organ­ percent regarded a nuclear first strike of colonel. Secretary of Defense Mc­ izations and major universities which as acceptable. For ROTC cadets the Namara, for instance, served as a lieu­ are the source of new strategic con­ figures were 19 percent and 16 per­ tenant-colonel. Except for tradition, cepts and national security theories. cent. Although academy cadets are there is no reason why this might not The War Colleges' impact on national sufficiently motivated so they would be extended upward. Though it would policy can be inferred from the fre­ join ROTC if there were no aca­ be undesirable for civilian generals to quent remark of graduates, "What demies, the academies strengthen the have operational commands, less than you learn there is less important than ties between such men and enable 40 percent of our Army are combat the friends you make there." Men more of them to rise in the ranks. commands. Executives are needed for from different services and different logistics, recruitment, and medicine. The substantial curtailing of un­ branches discover a common interest The skills needed in the military, dergraduate academies would necessi­ in strengthening the national defense, moreover, are those needed in busi­ tate the strengthening of ROTC pro­ helping to cement the defense com­ ness. To ensure that the influx is grams. But ROTC has two problems: munity and increasing its power. The not thwarted by traditionalists in the its graduates lack career motivation type of training future generals re­ Pentagon, service secretaries or Con­ and the trend is to force it off ceives should be carefully reviewed, as gress might require that a minimum campuses. Both can be overcome. The should the possibility that the War percentage of commissions at each great advantage of the academies is Colleges' functions might better be rank be direct from civilian life. that they produce officers expecting performed by private research organ­ A further and more difficult di­ the military to be their life work. izations and major universities. lemma is created by the Service Aca­ While ROTC attempts to stimulate demies. Whatever their virtues, these interest in a military career at every The problem of civilian control academies hinder civilian control in opportunity, the problem of commit­ does not end with the military itself. two ways. First, isolating future mil­ ment remains. What has been overlooked is that itary leaders during their formative A partial solution is greatly in­ some Defense Department civilians years, these schools increase the chance creased scholarships, which require are just as biased in favor of the mil­ of military alienation from Amer­ men to serve for four years. Retention itary as the most hawkish general. ican society. Second, they develop a rates are much higher within this pro­ While officers are regularly rotated, solidarity among officers which pro­ gram partl y because a good officer is the civil servants remain in the same tects the military against outsiders -­ a captain or Navy lieutenant after positions for years. Instead of giving reporters, Congressmen, and service four years. The second problem, on­ them permanent tenure, turnover at secretaries. In contrast to graduates of campus training, can be solved by higher ranks might be encouraged. most schools, academy graduates re­ having off-campus training in the This would require revamping civil main in the same organization, with summer. The Marines have done this service requirements, but new blood their paths continuously crossing. It for years with their Platoon Leaders is needed here as elsewhere. is as if all graduates of the Universi­ Corps, as has the Navy. Civil servants should not be con­ ty of Michigan worked for General The raiS011 d'etres of the academies, fused with the politically appointed Motors and as if GM drew only on providing training in specialized mil­ civilians in the Office of the Secretary University of Michigan graduates. itary leadership and maintaining peace­ of Defense. Turnover here, every two One example of this service aca­ time morale, are of decreasing valid­ years on the average, is too rapid for demy solidarity came in early 1968, ity. In the last century the percentage men to understand their jobs and the when Lt. Commander Arnheiter was of soldiers in pure military speciali­ system. Strengthening civilian control relieved of his command after com- ties has fallen from over 90 to 29. depends on capable civilian leadership

46 Ripon Forum in the Office of the Secretary. The enthusiasm and dedication of individ­ .... We must never let the weight ~olution may be informal - selecting uals, no administrative structure will of this combination endanger our men who will stay for four or five be successful. It was President Eisen­ liberties or democratic processes. years or reminding them that they hower who first sounded the call for Since the Ripon Society first sup- severely limit their usefulness by re­ control of the military-industrial com­ ported a Volunteer Armed Force over signing. plex. He spoke: six years ago, national sentiment has For Republicans to adopt and push "In the councils of Govern­ shifted sharply in that direction. But the cause of civilian control through ment, we must guard against the civilian control now should be extend­ personnel changes is a natural out­ acquisition of unwarranted influ­ ed beyond the elimination of conscrip­ growth of our traditions. We are the ence, whether sought or unsought, tion, for the danger lies primarily in party which realizes that without the by the military-industrial complex the higher ranks.

and loss. The only thing correct about it is that Mountain States impact at the 1976 National Convention could be LETTERS diminished by over a third. I corrected the faulty mathematics in a later memorandum., which the press Wrong County didn't pick up. I noted in your June, 1972 issue that you carried a I also was interested in your article regarding Vir­ story on the 1974 elections in California. In this story, ginia. I haven't had any communication with Dick Oben­ author Daniel J Swi1llnger referred to my Congressional shain for years, but you may misestimate him. He was District as being in "conservative, populous and wealthy the Virginia Young Republican Chairman in 1963 and, Orange County in the south ..." authough a professed Goldwaterite, resisted all "conserva­ I would like to correct that statement, as I do not tive" pressure and voted for Chuck McDevitt, the ''mod­ reside in, nor does my district encompass, any part of erate" candidate, at the San Francisco YR national con­ Orange County. I represent well over half of the vention that year. r. as his Utah counterpart, seconded geographical area of Los Angeles County, and part of Buz Lukens' "conservative" nomination. Kern County. Under reapportionment, my district wou~d To further compound the confusion, my current bat­ include the western part of the San Fernando Valley m tle is with the John Birch Society, which considers that Los Angeles County and a large part of Ventura County. Senator Bennett, Congressman Lloyd, and the current BARRY M. GOLDWATER, JR. Utah machinery isn't "conservative" enough. If OUr ex­ Member of Congress tremists had their way, we'd reject all reclamation proj­ ects because they suffer from the "unconstitutionality" Mountain States which they and Robert Welch claim attends federal As regard my letter on loss of convention representa­ grants. tion from the Mountain States, you are quite correct in KENT SHEARER your "sic." (June 15 FORUM, "People in Politics") In Chairman fact it should have been "sic, sic, sic," for the totals were Utah Republican State wroi"g for present representation. future representation. Central Committee

WASHINGTON, D.C.: Brit Home wru; the guest of 14a the Washington, D.C. Ripon Chapter on June 27. Hume, ELIOT STREET one of columnist Jack Anderson's investigators, made no • Ralph Loomis, a member of the National Governing new disclosures of political chicanery or Pentagon con­ Board, from Hartford will take over as Ripon's new ex­ niving, but did discuss the Anderson newsgathering ap­ ecutive director this month. He replaces Robert D. Behn paratus. who will become a lecturer at Harvard Business School. NEW JERSEY: Three members of the Ripon's New Loomis had been director of the Voluntary Action Center Jersey chapter will be attending the Republican National of Greater Hartford since 1970 and had previously been Convention. Virginda. Benjamin will be an alternate, Joseph Secretary of the Connecticut State Chamber of Com­ PeIlington will serve as a page, and AI Fe1zenberg will merce. be an aide to the delegation. • The J,uly 15 FORUM newsletter on Gov. Francis MEMPHIS: The Memphis provisional chapter held Sargent and the Massachusetts GOP got wide publicity an auction June 30 at the home of the Shelby County in the Bay State. Released the day before the Massachu­ Chairman, Dr. T. Kyle Creson. Items auctioned off in­ setts Republican Convention, one reporter noted that the cluded an autograph pen from Pre'lident Nixon; an auto­ "ghost" of the article on Sargent was very strongly felt graphed card from Vice President Agnew (a "hot" item); at the convention. Apparently in response to the article. a doodle from HEW Secretary Elliot Richardson; and reporters noted that Sargent seemed to have changed his items from GOP National Chairman Robert Dole, HUD speech to stress his support for the Republican officehold­ Secretary George Romney and most of Tennessee's Repub­ ers and candidates throughout the state. The FORUM lican Congressional delegation. About 100 persons attend~ article criticized Sargent for his lackadaisiCal attitude to­ ed the auction which raised money for both local and na­ ward the Party. Several days later. Sargent appeared tional Ripon and the local GOP. I..ocal Republicans are on a television program. "There is a general decline in already looking forward to the Memphis Ripon's 1973 interest in both parties," he noted, and stressed that Re-. answer to Warren Beatty. publicans would have to work hard to maintain a viable two-party system in Massachusetts. • Other Ripon members attending the Republican Na­ MINNESOTA: Attorney Jim Manaba.n is Minneso­ tional Convention include WUlie L. Leftwich. as a dele­ ta's new representative on the National Governing Board, gate from the District of Columbia; Jaye Whittier as a replacing Bon Speed who is now Secretary of the NGB. delegate from Massachusetts; Robert Hehn and Martha Manahan is an alternate to the Republican National Con­ Reardon as alternates from Massachusetts; and Glenn vention. Gerstell and Tanya Mellch as alternates from New York. }tJly, 1972 47 California Corner MoCloskey's Win tified supporters on election day. For the fourth time since 1967 McCloskey got 8,000 additional Pete McCloskey has been nomi­ voters from mailed appeals to the nated to Congress over deter­ undecided voters. The opposition mined conservative opposition. was also well organized and well McCloskey won 44 percent of the financed and did almost as good GOP vote against 31 percent a job in turning out the anti-Mc­ and 25 percent for his two chal­ Closkey vote. The overall turn­ lengers. The sizeable mar~ of out among Republicans in the victory was a pleasant surprIse to congressional district was 74 per­ moderates. cent, substantiaIIy above the state­ Adding gready to McCloskey'S wide 67 percent Democratic turn­ difficulties was the drastic reshap­ out for the McGovern-Humphrey ing of his congressional . district. contest. During the long rea,t'port!onme?t Although most prominent Nix­ struggle in the Ca1iforwa legts­ on supporters in the district took lature, a quid pro quo was reach­ no act1ve part in the campaign, ed whereby Republicans wo~d Reagan financial angel Henry vote to create a new Democratic Salvatori contribu.ted $5,000 to district in McCloskey's San Mateo Royce Cole and later intervened County if Democrats would vote directly in a last-minute effort to (in Ronald Reagan's words) to get one of McCloskey'S opponents "reapportion McCloskey into the to throw his support to the other. San Andreas fault." The part of The effort failed because both San Mateo County which included Cole and Barry felt they were do­ McCloskey'S home was tacked on­ ing better and wanted the other to a contorted strip of adjoining to withdraw. (Actually Barry Santa Clara County, which c~)O­ ended up 4,000 votes ahead of tained the bulk of the population Cole.) Salvatori's efforts were of the new district. Since 80 per­ nounce for re-election until af­ more than counterbalanced by cent of McCloskey's old district ter the New Hampshire primary, Congressman Alphonzo Bell's had been replaced ~y new te;ri­ there was some preliminary skir­ personal campaigning for Mc­ tory, a new campa1~ orgaruza­ mishing between Barry and Cole, Closkey. (Salvatori had tried to tion had to be built up from e:lch trying to establish himself purge Bell in 1970.) scrat~ j as McCloskey's major opponent. At the outset of the campaign In retrospect it seems likely Barry was labelled a perennial that McCloskey could have won those intent on defeating McClos­ candidate because, after losing his key feared that he might move against either of his opponents, New York seat in the Goldwater even had the other withdrawn. into the newly-created Democrat­ debacle, Barry had run against ic district and run there, since his The weakness of both candidates Congressman Tunney in 1966, is illustrated by the fact that Bar­ general election majorities of against McCloskey in 1968, and 75-80 percent left little doubt as ry, a San Mateo County resident, against George Murphy for Sen­ got 26 percent in San Mateo and to his appeal among Democrats. ate in 1970. Barry portrayed him· To forestall this possibility, a co­ 34 percent in Santa Clara, while self as a centrist candidate be­ Cole a Santa Clara County resi­ alition of GOP conservatives ran tween the ultraliberal McCloskey a spoiler, Charles Chase, in the dent, got 21 percent in Santa and the ultraconservative Cole. Clara and 30 percent in San Democratic district to block a Mc­ When McCloskey began active Closkey nomination. In the more Mateo. The anti-Cole and anti­ campaigning, he kept his critic­ Barry votes were both strong en­ Republican district in which Mc­ ism of his two opponents low key, Closkey lived, this coalition se­ ough to have lifted McCloskey aiming primarily at whichever from 44 percent to a majority in lected Royce Cole, a member of seemed ihead of the other. the Palo Alto school board, to a two-man race. run in the primary. This effort Because of the irregular shape McCloskey now faces a Demo­ to force McCloskey into a con­ of the district, direct canvassing cratic opponent, James Stewart, test with a single conservative op­ was more effective than mass me­ 34, who showed up at the Con­ ponent failed when former New dia. McCloskey volunteers were gressman's victory celebration to York Congressman Bob Barry able to contact most voters in offer congratulations. McCloskey, also became a candidate in Mc­ the district, identify 20,000 who at last, seems assured of an easy Closkey's district. were favorable to McCloskey and campaign. Since McCloskey did not an- turn out 97 percent of the iden- MICHAEL HALLIWELL

48 Ripon Forum