RIPON Election Issue Including a 17 page Cumulative Index to the Ripon FOR U M since 1965.

DECEMBER VOL. IV. No. 12 ONE DOLLAR

THE NIXON OPPORTUNITY his time - Nixon, said the posters and this time they were right. TThe long and often lonely odyssey has ended in triumph. Rich­ ard Nixon has fashioned the most remarkable political comeback. in our nation's history and achieved the highest honor his country­ men can bestoW'. In his acceptance speech at Miami Beach, Mr. Nixon recalled to his audience the declaration of Winston Churchill: "We have not journeyed all this way, . . . across the oceans, across the mountains, across the prairies, because we are made of sugar candy." He used the comment to describe the proven strength of the American peo­ ple. But the words also speak an important truth about Richard Nixon and his journey to the White House. Now the loneliness of the long distance runner gives way to the different loneliness of high office. Mr. Nixon must now face the great question which he also put to the American people that night last August: For what purpose have we traveled all this way? As he wrestles with that awesome concern, the new' President will require and deserve all the support and assistance our people can provide. The Ripon Society, for its part, recognizes this high obligation. Over the years, Ripon has tried in two ways to playa construc­ tive political role. First, we have worked to develop progressive policy recommendations based on identifiably Republican themes. Values such as decentralization, voluntarism and self-help have been important elements in Ripon's approach. A number of the proposals which the Society has endorsed have also received Mr. Nixon's support. Such research and policy development efforts are now more important than ever. we believe. For our party must a­ void both inaction and redundancy in the next four years and raise -Please turn to page 19 SUMMARY OF CONTENTS

EDITORIAL STATE BY STATE Ripon's assessment of the 1968 election and where In Alabama, encouraged Republicans look forward the results leave the Republican Party. Our conclusion is to a period of expansion which will make Alabama a two­ that this election must be viewed as one of forfeited party state. Unfortunately, the directions they envision opportunity for the GOP, which failed to increase its may perpetuate the Republicans as a minority by polar­ appeal to crucial blocs and alienated many swing voters. izing blacks and liberals within the Democrats. -IS We attempt to outline a strategy by which the President­ Taxes and the negative Nixon coattails make the elect can govern and increase the chances of significant GOP story in Rhode Island a sad one. -14 gains in the next elections. --S Organizations and Republican i.iiiity-rn Oiifo;hOwever, provided the fiipside of the coin, and Republicans racked ELECTION MYTHS up an impressive victory . -14 Christopher BeaI analyses the analyzers and attempts In MIssouri, the performance of 32-year-old John to dispell a number of fallacies about the 1968 election Danforth provides the one ray of hope in the dismal GOP which are already hardening into facts. -7 picture. -15 The GOP took all the brass rings except one, and the voters rejected former governor Archie Gubbrud for CABBAGES AND KINGS George McGovern in Sooth Dakota. -16 A look backwards at the 1968 elections through the New York Republicans face a critical era ahead if eyes of principals and observers. -5 they are to remain a strong party. -16 The GOP picture in Florida remains in fiux as Gover­ nor Claude Kirk and Party Chairman Murfin fight it RIPON INDEX out for control. -17 An 18-page cumulative index of the last four years' Maine Republicans will have to enter the twentieth cen- issues of the FORUM by author subject and article. tury if the Party is to survive there. -17 --Centerfold MOTHER GOOSE -15 POLL A Post-election, pre-administration questionnaire that attempts to gauge the sentiments of moderate Republi­ .. ELECTORAL REFORM cans on this year's political developments up to the Bob Rebn discusses the options and pitfalls and sug­ present. -Facing Page 11 gests a profitable first step for the new President. -20

THE RIPON SOCIETY INC. Is a Republican researeb and THE RIPON FORUM Is published montbly by tbe Ripon So· • policy organization whose clety, Inc., 14a Eliot Street, Cambridge, members are young business, academic and professional man and woman. Massachusetts 02138. Second class postage ral8S paid at Boston, Masse· It has national headquarters In Cambridge, Massachusetts, chaptars In chusetts. Conlants ere copyrlghtad @ 1968 by tbe Ripon Society, Inc. seven cities, NatIonal Assoclata members tbrougbout tbe fifty states, and Correspondence addressed to tbe Editor Is welcomed. . severel affiliated groups of sub·cheptar status. The Society Is supported In publishing tbls magazine tba Ripon Society seeks to provide I by chapter dues, Individual contributions, and revenues from Its publica· forum for fresh Ideas, well·researched proposals and for a spirit of criti­ tlons and contract work. The Society offers the following options for cism, Innovation, and Independent tblnklng within tha Republican Party. annual contribution: Contributor $25 or more; Sustalner $100 or more; Articles do not necessarily represent the opinion of tbe National Govern· Foundar $1000 or more. Inquiries about mambershlp and chapter organ· ing Board or the Editorial Board of the Ripon Society. unless tbey are lzatlon should be addressed to the National Executive Director. explicitly so laballed. NATIONAl GOVERNING BOARD SUBSCRIPTION RATES are $10 a year, $5 for students, servicemen, OHlC8l1l and for Peace Corps, Vista and other voluntaers. Overseas air mall, $10 °Lee W. Huebner, PresIdent extra. Advertising ral8S on request. . • John R. Price, Jr., Cllalrman of tile Board ° Christopher T. Beyley, VIce President Editor: Josiah Lee Auspltz 'Wllfred E. Gardner, Jr., T_ Frank E. Samuel, Jr., 5ecretarJ CoatrIbutors: Hayden Anderson, Christopher W. Baal, Robert W. Gordon, Duncan K. Foley, Phillip C. Johnston, John Kyrk, John McClaughlJ, Boston "- York Howard L Reltar, Mlchaal A. Sandman, Peul Szap, Andrew T. Well. °Robert D. Crangle oJ. Eugene Marana Terry A. Barnett Edward S. Cabot Assistant Editor: Nancy G. Keirn Chicago Peter J. Wallison • John A. Bross, Jr. TeclmlceJ Editor: Janet Beal Benjamin C. Dustar Seattle Ad1l8rtlslnglllaneger: Donald R. Meyer George H. Walker "Bruce K. Chapman Del ... Thomas A. Alberg Circulation: Nancy Morton . ONeil D. Anderson Camden Hall Richard F. Smith At Large Correspondentl T. WIlliam Porter Christopher W. Baal Mrs. Norman W. Osher, ArIzona James L Robertson; MlssllslppJ Los Angel.. Robert l. Baal Maggie Nichols, California John Evans. Missouri "MelYin H. Bemstaln Richard E. Baamen Mrs. Anne C. Johns. Delaware Arthur F. McClure, II. Missouri Thomas A. Brown Emil A. Frankel James F. McCollum, Jr., florida William Harding, Nebraska Joal M. fisher Howard F. Gillette, Jr. Cullan Hammond, Georgta Charles O. Ingraham, "- York N_ Hnan WIlliam J. K1lberg Sand E. Brim, Georgia Johnson Howard, North Canliina 'Rlchard A. Zimmer Edward H. MeAnlff Michael Mcerery, IdaIJo William K. Wood&, Oblo Barbara Greene (Miss) W. Stuart Parsons Blaine Evans, Idaho Eric R. Blackledge, Ongon William Jeffrese John S. Saloma, III Hlnq Dink Kanna, illinois James'. C. Humes,. P8IIIISJI1an1a J. Kenneth Doks, Indiana Donato Andre D'Andrea, Rhode Island Ex-Offlclo At Larp Burton Southard, Indtana Bruce M. Selya, Rhode Islud Josiah Lee Auspitz, Editor of tile RIpon FORUII Terrence Dwyer, 1_ William H. Linder, South Carolina Robert D. B!Jh.nl NatIonal a-rcII DIrector J. T. Moore, Kanas Stanford M. Adelstein, Sooth Dakota Thomas E. 1'8tI1, NatlcmaI ExecutIIe DlnICIDr Gary Scott Nunley, Kanas T. William Porter, Texas °lndlcates mamber of tbe National Executive Committee William A. Merrill, Massachusetts Robert R. Murdoch, VlrgJDla Don Fowler, MaIne Bruce K. Chapman, iIfaeblngton THE RIPON INTELLIGENCE UNIT =g~t;I"=~':t Richard Ober, Jr., ~ W. Stuart Parsons; "'-In basis to Republican office· holders and candidates end to non·partisan com· Terrence Dwyer, MI John R. Lazarek, Southam Statal munlty leaders. All Inquiries are kept strictly confidential. Write tba Douglas C. Watson, Inneota National Research Director. EDITORIAL n view of Richard Nixon's almost legendary 15-year was in the former. I devotion to the cause of fostering a strong Repub­ The trouble lay in the dichotomy between the lican Party, it is particularly ironic that his candidacy springtime pronouncements of Mr. Nixon and his did so little to help it in last month's election. As the performance in the fall, as this month's cover at­ nation's anticipation of the reign washes away mem­ tempts to dramatize, which eroded his appeal to the ories of the campaign, it remains important to take a swing voters. The Richard Nixon of the spring was last look at the past to determine how it will impinge the new, mellowed, responsible centrist Nixon stres­ on the future. sing his acceptibility to primary voters and liberal con­ To begin with, let us recall what the script orig­ vention delegates. The candidate of the fall was at inally called for in 1968. Ever since the remarkable first conciliatory Mr. Nixon trying to hold onto every­ Republican successes in 1966 and last year, political one by offending no one and remaining an acceptable experts in both parties had predicted that 1968 would alternative. The apotheosis of this strategy was the climacticly cap the GOP comeback story. The unpop­ selection of Spiro Agnew as running mate, a man ularity of the President, his counterproductive and a­ who apparently fit all the politically mechanical ex­ gonizing war and the spiraling domestic disorder and ternals of the campaign. Although Mr. Agnew turn­ discontent seemed to assure their prophecies. To top ed out to be less than the ideal campaigner, his lack everything off, the ugly spectacle of Chicago high­ of finesse could not be predicted, and the policy of lighted the contrast between the united Republicans caution was a plausible one for the front runner and the atomized Democrats and drove disgusted Nixon. Thus, he promised to end the war in Viet­ liberals away from Humphrey. nam, but took care not to repudiate the Cold War as­ sumptions that trapped the United States there in the Even the cautious London bookmakers rated first place. (He troubled to make the curious point Nixon's chances at ten to one, and the only real de­ that his administration would see a new Attorney bate became whether the Nixon landslide would General but made no mention of a Secretary of sweep Republicans into control of the House or leave State.) His substitution of tax incentives to private them a hair short of it. In any event, the New Deal enterprise to solve the problems of the city had appeal coalition was at last going to shatter in this water­ and covered over his lack of willingness to commit shed election, and for the first time since the 1920s, the government to actions which lower-income whites the GOP was to become the majority Party. might find threatening. This prognosis held up until the end of Septem­ But there comes a point when one can appease ber. But a scant month later, it was the once discredi­ one group only by offending another. When Mr. Nix­ ted Democrats who were on the offensive. Given a on decided that "justice" was too controversial a word bit more cooperation from Richard Daley in August, to be included in his discussions of "law and order," Lyndon Johnson in September, Eugene McCarthy in he could hardly expect its omission to escape notice. early October, or even a slightly later election date in Lukewarm support of racial integration subtly im­ November, Hubert Humphrey, Edmund Muskie, Lar­ plied that his obeisances to it were merely tactical, an ry O'Brien, George Meany and Joe Napolitan might impression reinforced by his general avoidance well have won the contests. (George Gallup for one and even cancellation of ghetto appearances. To trans­ believes that a few more days would have made the form honorable differences with the philosophy of difference.) As it was, the Republicans won the elec­ the Warren Court into a Walladte theory of crime tion but they lost the campaign. causation displayed at best flagrant opportunism and We do not believe that the American electorate at worst a frightening lack of social insight. Seizing lost its appetite for change between August and No­ upon the Czechoslovakian invasion as an opportunity vember of 1968. But they did, in large measure, lose to denounce backhandedly the treaty that may go their confidence that a Republican President would down in history as the one positive achievement of produce the kind of change they desired. Mr. Nixon the Johnson administration in foreign affairs was not has frequently said that he pursued the Republican only bad diplomacy; it proved to be poor politics as nomination in a way that would allow him to win the well. election and that he pursued electoral victory in a In the end, Richard Nixon's strategy played way that would allow him to govern effectively. Un­ right into Hubert Humphrey's hands. The Humphrey fortunately, his 43 % share of the popular vote indi­ campaign was calculated to conjure up an image of cates he was not as successful in the latter task as he Nixon as the embodiment of anti-union, anti-social-

3 legislation, pro-military-industrial-complex demon of or Rockefeller this spring. This group comprises Republican mythology. Humphrey ran his campaign about 17 % of the electorate outside the South and against the old Nixon, and Richard Nixon obliged by favored Nixon two-to-one in September. Because playing the role. The most perfect illustration of this of the three-way race, their support became very sad fact was his response to the issues raised by Hum­ strategic since a switch from Nixon to Humphrey phrey's Vietnam speech, probably the most effective simultaneously impoverished the former and enrich­ moment of the Humphrey campaign. Nixon rum­ ed the latter. While it hurt Nixon, however, a vote maged in the cellar of the 1950's and came up with switch from him to Wallace did not help Humphrey his atavistic "security gap" statement. This irrespon­ directly. Ripon predicted in September that if Nix­ sible fantasy probably did more than any other move on aimed his campaign at Wallace voters, he would in the campaign to persuade liberals that Humphrey dissipate his margin in the North and win only a was indeed the less backward-looking, less unin­ "narrow victory," and we must conclude that this spiring and less disquieting choice. analysis was essentially accurate. So, trying to ride the backlash tide, Mr. Nixon Although Nixon finally won enough votes almost floundered in the powerful "frontlash" un­ from Wallace in the peripheral South to defer the dertow. As it was, the anticipated gains in the House dreams of the Alabama spoiler, in the process he of Representatives all but vanished. Although all reversed the two-to-one frontlash edge of September but two of the Republican class of 1966 survived, to a two-to-one deficit by November. It appears only five of the 34 marginal Democratic seats chang­ that about one-third of the Republican voters who ed Party. The role of the frontlash in this election crossed over to vote for LB J in 1964 crossed over was crucial, spelling the difference between the anti­ to the Democratic candidate again in 1968, despite cipated victory and the actual stalemated near de­ their early inclination not to do so. On the whole feat. "Frontlash" is a shorthand for the emergent Nixon ran about 10% behind his suburban pace of highly independent, well informed, largely subur­ eight years ago, with only a fifth of that falloff go­ ban group which ordinarily leans Republican but ing to Wallace. In the northeast, Nixon's perform­ supported Johnson in 1964 and preferred McCarthy ance was even further off the GOP norm, and it

Cabbages andl Kings On Creeping Disarmament Telling It Like It Is George Hanson, Republican senate candidate in Massachusetts Senator Edward Brooke introducing Idaho: "How long will our hunters have their guns Richard M. Nixon - after attacking Hubert Hum­ in Idaho if the soldiers and sailors who are defending phrey and George Wallace: "And so Dick, I guess their country have theirs taken away?" that leaves only you." Button Up Your Overcoat Dept. Truer Words Never Spoken Dageus Nyheter, Stockholni"s daily newspaper: Carl Albert as he took the gavel as permanent "We must express our hope that no harm comes to chairman of the Democratic national Convention: Mr. Nixon because it would pave the way for Spiro "We will be judged on our decorum." Agnew whose qualifications - to use a neutral term - are world famous." Better LeMayism than Gayism The More You Stir It Dept. Nixon aide in response to suggestions that a State Department Purge which brought in new hard-liners Governor John Volpe defends Spiro Agnew's would increase the risk of war: "Better thermonu­ use of the term "fat jap" on the grounds that it is clear war than letting the fairies take over." merely an abbreviation for Japanese and "was used in all the newspapers during World War II." Reasssurances We'd As Soon Not Get Summing Up From Richard M. Nixon: "Some people say Cali­ Glenn E. Goretsica, Iowa farmer on the campaign: fornia is different from the rest of the country, but "I think that if you stuck them both in a barrel and they are wrong. I say what is happening in Orange shook them up, neither one of them would come County tonight is happening allover America." to the top."

4 stands out in particularly bold relief when compared et's percentage support from blacks-didn't even hit to Republican candidates who made strong front­ double figures in most areas and fell to less than five lash appeals, notably Charles McC. Mathias of percent in urban centers like Chicago, Brooklyn, Maryland, Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania, and Detroit, Los Angeles, and Gary. Jacob Javits of New York. In the case of a few lib­ In short, the Nixon candidacy with its stubborn eral GOP Congressmen living in frontlash districts, and almost fatal adherence to the "border strategy", the contrast is even stronger. Paul McClockey of far from marking the end of the New Deal coali­ suburban San Francisco won by 80% of the vote in tion, strengthened it outside the South and polarized a district that was carried by both Humphrey and voting patterns against the Republicans. All this Democratic Senate candidate Alan Cranston. Char­ occured at a time when the GOP was marked by un­ les Whalen carried Dayton, Ohio and its environs by precedented unity matched only by the opposition's 78.1 % of the vote, again while the Democratic pres­ disarray. As Hubert Humphrey began to gain on idential and senatorial ticket was carrying his area. him, Richard Nixon acted like a confused young If Nixon had been able to keep pace with Mathias maid whose virtue was assailed, frantically defending and Gilbert Gude in the Maryland suburbs of Wash­ the secondary almost at the expense of the primary. ington, D. C, the Nixon-Agnew ticket would have The voters who abandoned Nixon, the young, carried that state. the black, the urbanized, and the frontlash, com­ This is not to say that Nixon lost all of his lib­ prise the fastest growing groups in the electorate. eral and moderate Republican support, nor that In­ Adding to them the farmers, who seem of late to dependents and Democrats did not vote for him. It swing strongly against the "in" Party, and even fur­ appears that about one-fourth of his vote came from ther defections from urban CatholiGs if the next 1964 Johnson voters. He was supported by at least Democratic candidate is of their faith, highlights seven percent of the Cranston voters in California, more clearly than ever the highly perishable nature mostly Kuchel Republicans who opposed Rafferty. of the slim Nixon plurality. He shared large numbers of voters with Democratic All in all, despite Nixon's ultimate victory and Wayne Morse in Oregon, Harold Hughes in Iowa, despite the gains in the Senate and toa lesser extent and Gaylord Nelson in Wisconsin - mostly in swing on the State level, the Republican story of 1968 areas in these states. must be written as one of forfeited opportunity. The Republicans cannot take for granted in The possibility for building a healthy and progres­ 1972 the frontlash votes that it received this year, sive Republican majority has not been foreclosed, but given a reasonable performance in the meantime however. As the Republican experience in the last it can expect to woo many of them back to the party. decade demonstrates, in American politics opportu­ Far less optimistic are the prospects of increasing Nix­ nity knocks again and again. on's dismal performance among other crucial seg­ ments of the population. Right now, the door on which the opportunity For example, at a time when the polls showed for rebuilding the Party knocks most loudly is that 50% of college students identifying with neither of the White House, newly occupied by a profes­ major party and with so many young people repulsed sional Republican politician for the first time in 40 by tales of Chicago, the Republicans lost an impor­ years. The strategy by which power was pursued tant opportunity to gain new adherants. Most of the need not be the strategy by which it is wielded. In­ undecided young went for Humphrey, and the pen­ deed, one of the more dubious but enduring tradi­ umbra of alienation from the GOP was spread not tions of American politics is that the promises-stated only to those who were not attracted this year, but or implied - of the candidate are only of minimal to those who will be voting for the first time in 1970 help in predicting the performance of the office­ and 1972. holder. In many areas we fervently):tope this will be And precisely when urbanization has become the case with Richard Nixon as he 'assumes Presi­ the definitive theme of our culture, the Nixon-Ag­ dential power. new ticket, running consistently behind even the We firmly believe that Mr. Nixon has both the mediocre 1960 pace, carried almost no large cities, capacity and the desire to be an effective President. (Nixon enemy Murray Kempton made this point a Clearly, he wants very much to respond to the sign­ little too strongly when he claimed no GOP vic­ board plea of the little girl in Dechsler, Ohio to tories in any city "large enough to have a book­ "bring us together," a point he made convincingly store." ) in his post-election appearance. In two radio ad­ But perhaps the most foreboding omen of all dresses during his Spring campaign, he expressed the was Nixon's performance with blacks, a crucial seg­ same philosophy and with the greatest sophistica­ ment of the population just beginning to organize as tion. In "Toward an Expanded Democracy" he a politically effective bloc. The Nixon-Agnew tick- -Please turn to page 10 5 Christmas Book C'lub Selection

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6 ELECTION '68:

What Did and Didn't Happen

The election is over, but the analysts have just be­ the nostalgic "security gap" charge, was a tactical blun­ gun to fight, as each interpretor strives to extract lessons der which reinforced Humphrey's very effective prior from the 1968 results to vindicate ideological precon­ depiction of Nixon as a mindless militant who favored ceptions or fill columns and airwaves. the spread of nuclear weapons. In addition, Nixon was Actually, the real hard analysis must await the unable to counter Johnson's last-ditch tactics on the appearance of more detailed returns and their interpre­ bombing halt since he had refused to take any position tation by the computers, but already a number of cam­ at all on the war, even to repeat the balanced phrases paign myths are hardening in "facts" and "lessons" of the Republican platform. completely belied by the even fragmentary evidence The results of the election and the barometer of now available. Perhaps it is too early to discern what the polls even allows us to dispel yet another myth, really happened, but it may be even too late to set the that the Democratic Convention did Humphrey in. Per­ public mind straight on what didn't. Nevertheless, haps it anchored those who were already in the Nixon herewith a modest attempt: camp more firmly, but all the ones it chased away from Myth No.1: Nixon was winning by a landslide Humphrey eventually came back to him. in September but he peaked too soon and almost lost. Myth No.2. No one went fishing on election day Richard Nixon indeed almost lost, but both Gallup as was feared, perhaps because of Wallace's third party and Harris agree that he reached his peak just before and McCarthy's eventual endorsement of Humphrey. the Democratic Convention. They also concur that for This year only 69% of the eligible age group voted. the next three months he leveled off, Gallup placing the smallest percentage since 1948. Voting has in­ him at 43-44% and Harris four points lower at 39- creased dramatically in the South since 1964 but few 40%. In November, On the weekend before the elec­ northern states had normal turnouts for a presidential tion, the pollsters temporarily converged, giving him year. Only nine northern states, of which Illinois was 42%, a drop according to Gallup and a gain according the only large one, had turnout percentages as large as to Harris; within hours, however, Harris put him back those of 1960 and 1964. In most northern states, down to 40%. Nixon had fewer votes this year than in 1960. The public was unusually close-mouthed this year, with as many as one-third of prospective respondents The low 71 million turnout refusing to have anything to do with the pollster. Even 5,000,000 this year has not been publicized, worse, almost half of the rest expressed serious dissatis­ MISSING though it confounded all predic­ faction with both candidates. Given this hostility, a tions. Gallup's last report to the public emphasized single national poll might have been off by the usual that his workers asked six questions to determine 4% error, but there is no reason to doubt the consistent whether a person would vote, and he confidently pre­ picture presented by two sets of repeated polls. dicted that 76 million Americans would do so. The Census bureau predicted the same, and a book co-au­ Nixon did not pick up sig- thored by a former director of the census, Richard NARY A VOTE nificant support when either of Scammon (Where the Voters Are) projected a 77- SINCE JULY his rivals fell- Humphrey after million vote. the Chicago convention and Wallace just before elec­ This is not the first year a low turnout has been ig­ tion day. Even though he gained part of the Wallace nored. In 1948, the turnout percentage fell, and Dew­ vote, the authoritarian tone of his campaign pro­ ey got fewer votes against Truman than he had re­ nouncement cost him dearly in "Frontlash" votes. ceived in wartime against Roosevelt. As in 1948, the In short, Nixon did not follow his often described proportion of the vote among one of the three candi­ strategy of "peaking," gaining the last minute support dates may have been determined by the relative turn­ of volatile voters with a bandwagon psychology and a outs of the different ethnic groups. last minute clinching maneuver. Despite enormous pub­ Myth No.3. The 1968 election, like those of licity about his substantial lead over Humphrey, which 1948 and 1960, was a cliffhanger in which the outcome Gallup twice reported as over 10% and Harris once in the electoral college could have been reversed by a conceded was almost that much, Nixon made no net small number of extra votes in a few states. Despite gains in popular support. His last minute maneuver, the remarks of the TV commentators recalling the pic-

7 turesque frauds of 1960 in Chicago and Texas, Nixon's not far exceed Nixon's total in the three-way race. The victory in the electoral college is not as narrowly based congressional candidates only got 47% of the state­ as Kennedy's was. In 1960, there were 16 states in wide vote, three points below the thin majorities reg­ which the winning margin was less than two votes out istered in 1966 and in 1960, when Nixon narrowly of every hundred cast. Kennedy won 12 of them, two lost the state in a two-party race. Despite this drop in of them by fraud. This year, there were only six such the Republican vote, Nixon managed to edge out Hu­ close states. Nixon won only three of them (Ohio, bert Humphrey 46% to 44%. The only possible con­ New Jersey and Alaska), and they had fewer electoral clusion is that Wallace seduced eight times as many votes than the ones Humphrey squeaked through in Democrats as Republicans into giving him his 9% (Texas, Pennsylvania and Maryland). showing. Myth No.4 : Wallace the spoiler significantly dis­ In California, where the TV networks claimed rupted the normal pattern of state-by-state party vot­ that Wallace was helping Nixon, Republicans in gen­ ing hurting either Nixon or Humphrey decisively in eral did very well. Republican congressional candidates some states. This assumption is used by both parties won 52¥2% of the statewide vote this year (54¥2% if to lay claim to the Wallace vote. The whole future of congressional blanks are excluded), about as good as the Republican Party may turn on the ultimately dom­ the 53% statewide vote associated with Reagan's inant interpretation of which party Wallace's votes 58%% gubernatorial victory in 1966. Nixon could came from. win California for the presidency while Democrat Alan The conservative Republican myth is that Wal­ Cranston was winning for the Senate because front­ lace's supporters are really members of a "conservative lash Republicans crossed party lines and voted for opposition" to liberal Democrats. To add Wallace's them both, then switched back to Republicans at the 13% of the national vote to Nixon's 43% and project congressional level. Despite Wallace, it was a Repub­ a new winning Republican coalition assumes that Wal­ lican year in California and therefore a Nixon year. lace's supporters are rational, issue-oriented souls who The 7% Wallace showing came mostly from con­ would vote for Republicans if their party moved to servative Republicans who also deserted Nixon in 1962 the right. Goldwater's "Southern strategy" simply as­ after he defeated conservative Republican Shell in the sumed that Wallace's white Protestant supporters in primary. If Nixon were to plan future California vic­ the South would respond more quickly to conservative tories on wooing the bulk of the conservatives over to Republicans than would his partly Catholic supporters his side, he would lose the gains in frontlash at the in the North. other end of the spectrum. The pursuit of the Wallace TWO-EDGED Liberal Democrats use the ALBATROSS mini-bloc in the big industrial ASSUMPTION "spoiler" assumption to buttress their counter myth - that Wal- MINI-BLOC states would also be a counter­ lace supporters are so hostile to Republicans that they productive maneuver. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, can never be won over by a Republican candidate what­ Nixon's defeats this year were associated with low Re­ ever his ideology. In short, they maintain, the "hate publican votes, the lower houses of both legislatures vote" has been conditioned for generations to hate Re­ falling to the Democrats. Even though arithmetically publicans and will continue to do so and be safely ab­ Wallace "held the balance" in Michigan, the real prob­ sorbed by the Democratic party without unduly influ­ lem was that Nixon fulfilled the fears of party leaders encing its policies. The geographical position of the and was a drag on the whole GOP ticket. In New York liberal Democratic stronghold in the North may cause and Connecticut, Humphrey got 50% of the vote, ren­ each myth to feed on the other; Republicans are temp­ dering Wallace irrelevent, while local Republicans made ted to write off the North and the Democrats are temp­ important gains, winning the lower house and two Con­ ted to take the South for granted. The Republican Par­ gressional seats in New York, and one in Connecticut. ty is consequently both pulled and pushed southward The two seats the GOP lost in New York City did not and to the right. reflect party strengths, for they had belonged to Mayor Neither conclusion is borne out by the basic data Lindsay and Judge Fino, whose personal appeals to available right after the election. The state-by-state a­ Democrats and Independents could not immediately be lignment remains basically the same as that of 1960. equaled. The only major difference is that five of the six Deep MISSING Wallace's fingerprints fail South states which Johnson's courthouse visits won for to show up elsewhere. Wash- Kennedy in 1960 went for Wallace and the other was FINGERPRINT ington State in 1960 experienced delivered to Nixon via the good offices of Strom Thur­ an anti-Catholic surge against Kennedy, but this year mond rather than because of any Wallace influence. succumbed to a great union effort for Humphrey. In only one other state did the Wallace crusade (Washington is the most unionized state in the coun­ have any clear influence: New Jersey, one of the only try) . Maine voted for Nixon in 1960, but switched to states where the rest of the ticket in two party races did Muskie this year. Delaware and North Carolina were narrow Nixon losses in 1960 and narrow Nixon wins tant in that year. Union members voted almost 60% this year. Nixon got more votes in Illinois than the for Nixon if they were Protestant but barely over 20% Democrats this year, as he did in 1960 when Richard if they were Catholic. Daley's unique vote accounting methods put the state The Catholics have remained with the Democrats in the Kennedy column. Nixon lost honestly in Texas for the last two elections. In 1964, Goldwater only this time, but very closely. One cannot, incidently, use pulled 24%, and Nixon this year was able to grab only the large 49% vote for GOP gubernatorial candidate 28%, only 6% better than 1960 even though his op­ Paul Eggers as an indication that the Wallace vote hurt ponent was not Catholic this time. Nixon more than Humphrey because their total includes The Goldwater candidacy the Texas liberals who supported Humphrey but to THE BARRY fueled the second phase of po­ whom Eggers' opponent Preston Smith was anathema. BOGEYMAN larization in 1964. Eisenhower Another indication of the had pushed his share of Negroes almost to 40% in CONTINUITY stability of party voting patterns 1956, and Nixon managed to hold on to 32% in 1960, OF TREND despite the Wallace presence is carrying many Negro precincts despite Kennedy's fa­ that this year's presidential election also followed the mous phone call to the jailed Martin Luther King. The congressional results of 1966, when Republicans re­ Goldwater bogeyman effect managed to scare away covered most of the seats lost in the Goldwater disas­ four-fifths of that bloc and pull the percentage down ter. In 1966, Republicans won statewide majorities of to an almost negatively unanimous 6%. Goldwater the congressional vote in 26 states, and all of them ex­ ironically managed to polarize Jews against the Republi­ cept Michigan and Pennsylvania voted for Nixon. can Party in 1964, although no Gallup estimate is a­ There were nine more states in which the congression­ vailable. al vote went at least 46% Republican in 1966, and six At the same time, Goldwater loosened the Repub­ of these went for Nixon this year. (Washington, New lican Party's hold on well-educated (white) Protes­ York and West Virginia were the laggards.) Nixon tants, the "frontlash," particularly in the Northeast. won only two other states: Nevada and South Carolina The defection was largely attributable to the peace is­ (already accounted for). In none of the rest was he sue, and LBr s post-election Vietnam doublecross com­ even close except for Texas, where Republicans do not bined with their customary Republicanism allowed Nix­ contest many congressional seats, and Maryland, his on to recoup some of these losses. Nevertheless, Nixon running mate's home state. failed to woo back many of the defectors, particularly In short, Nixon won in states where Republicans in the North. U. S. News and World Report compar­ do well as a party and lost in states where Republicans ed upper and middle income precincts in New York do badly. Wallace won five states on his own in the City and San Francisco and discovered that in both South, but elsewhere drew evenly from the two major cities Nixon's support had fallen to 50% from the parties. 60% he got in 1960. In the Yankee towns of Massa­ Myth No.5: Nixon's victory after a bland, non­ chusetts, Nixon lost one fourth of the towns he won committal campaign, vindicates his policy of alJoiding against Kennedy including such Republican bastions as controversy as a strategy to tlnify the nation. Lexington and Concord. He might have lost much less The sad reality principle of American politics is had not his troglodyte "security gap" posture been high­ that it is dominated by racial, ethnic, religious and re­ lighted by the McCarthy campaign, last minute Hum­ gional antagonisms. phrey push and the desperately contrived but politi­ cally effective bombing halt. As of 1960, Eisenhower, Only national polls and pre­ CHARISMA building on the urban-oriented CONQUERS CLEAR-CUT cinct-by-precinct analyses can es­ campaigns of Dewey and Wil­ INFLUENCE timate the extent of this develop­ kie, had softened both class and emotional antagonisms ing polarization, but its importance is clear from read­ in American politics. The elections of 1960 and 1964, ily accessible data. Twenty-five states have fewer than however, have polarized American politics, just as the 10% Negroes and Jews, the most anti-Republican elections of 1928 and 1936 did. groups, and more than 60% white Protestants, the on­ The first step in 1960 came along religious lines. ly pro-Republican group. The largest of these states is By 1956, Eisenhower had pushed up his percentage of Indiana (13 electoral votes). Nixon won all but four Catholic voters to 49%, enough to increase his percen­ of these ethnically favorable states (84%) and the four tage of the total vote in the face of farm defections. others were either favorite-son states (Minnesota and Kennedy got almost 30% of the country's Catholics Maine) or highly union-influenced ones (Washington to switch, putting his share at 78% of the Catholics, and Virginia). who gave him the margin of victory in five close, big Of the remaining 26 states (including D.C.) Nix­ states. (New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Jersey on won only ten, and eight of those ten had at least and Connecticut.) Class lines were relatively unimpor- -Please turn to page 12 9 EDITORIAL - From Page 5 viduals who are strong and effective figures in their spoke eloquently and compassionately of the alien­ own right. Nixon's men will presage Nixon's poli­ ated citizen" both black and white, who sensed that cies. Not only will these appointments determine "society in the mass is losing touch with the indivi­ the success of the new government in the long run, dual in the flesh." And in "A New Alignment for but they will also be seized upon by eager and nervous American Unity," he perceptively identified the com­ publics as occasions for immediate despair or uplift. mon strands which could bring together a new politi­ Ultimately, of course, the success or failure of cal coalition for the last third of the 20th century, a the Nixon administration will depend on the deci­ grouping which would include old Republicans, new sions that the President alone can make. As he takes liberals, the new South, the black militants, and the office, the legacy of his predecessor's decisions weigh silent center. heavily on the nation. The war in Vietnam is far But, as we have seen, the themes and implica­ from ended. And the slow motion economic crisis tions of these two speeches were muted this fall. In which it has engendered is reaching a stage that calls his new role as healing statesman, Mr. Nixon's first for agonizing decisions. In the absence of any change task will be to persuade the groups his campaign in our policy of backing the dollar with gold, Nixon alienated that he is "on their side." An important will have to walk the tightrope between unemploy­ step in the substitution of the politics of hope for ment and recession on one side, and inflation and bal­ the politics of fear will be, for example, to enlarge ance of payments problems on the other. How soon his interpretation of America's crime problem to the Vietnam drain will be slowed, how persuadable include the vicious cycle of poverty and racism. It Wilbur Mills is on the tax incentive scheme, and would also be helpful if he would take pains to cor­ whether he can establish a working coalition with rect the impression that he prefers to err on the plus Democrats in Congress complicate the economic side in military spending and on the minus side in equation tremendously. social investment. If Mr. Agnew is to play a prom­ But the most important trade-offs Nixon will be inent role in the problems of the cities and states, making are the ones between missiles and housing, a prompt exposition of an enlightened urban philo­ the cities and the Pentagon. Having won the battle sophy would do much to allay lingering apprehen­ for the "thin" missile system, the military and defense sions stirred up by some of his campaign pronounce­ contract lobbyists are now eyeing a "thick" system, ments. tentatively budgeted at $4 billion. (Preliminary es­ The President-elect is obviously groping in the timates on large-scale government sponsored techni­ direction of reconciliation. His announcement that cal projects have unfailingly run from 50% to 100% he would include Democrats in his administration is low.) As scientists of the stature and integrity of probably a necessary step, considering his tenuous Nobel laureate and weapons expert Hans Bethe have mandate, but his emphasis in naming them first indi­ pointed out, the offense can always easily outrun the cates that there are to be more than token appoint­ defense in the missile game. There simply is no real ments. "Youth" qua youth is a neutral quality, but defense against a multiple warhead blanket missile the claim that the Nixon appointees will be the most attack in the nuclear age, and already the develop­ youthful ever must be taken as good news. Political ment of a new type of plasma film memory cell casts appointments have an unspotlighted but tremendous serious doubt about the obsolence of the thick sys­ impact on the effectiveness of government as ghetto tem before it is even off the drawing boards! leaders trying to deal with federal agencies can tes­ Whether President Nixon will be unduly im­ tify. If Mr. Nixon has more in mind for these youth pressed by such gadgetry remains to be seen. But in than prominent display, energetic young Republican view of the magnitude of the long-neglected domes­ activists can have a huge effect on galvanizing the tic crisis and the rising expectations of slum dwellers, often unresponsive bureaucracies to action. Mr. Nixon and his advisors had better think long and Above all, it is essential that a significant num­ hard before reinvesting the dividends of peace in the ber of appointments at the Cabinet, sub-Cabinet, enterprise of war. Indeed, in view of the terrible toll Agency and Commission level provide sources of en­ our record of questionable foreign involvement has couragement to those who did not support Mr. Nixon taken in the past four years, it is not just shaking the and the more liberal of those who did. To attempt stick of history to point out that the economic conse­ to fill the administration with inoffensive appoint­ quences of military spending have vitiated other na­ ments, bland choices which neither please nor offend tions as comparatively great and rich as ours. any important group would reinforce many unfortu­ Those who would counsel Mr. Nixon to follow nate and prevalent impressions about the President­ a different strategy hold out the unattained Wallace elect. Far better that the new administration repre­ vote of 1968 as the prize in 1972 for a conserva­ sent a wide political spectrum but be limited to indi- - Please turn to Page 11

10 EDITORIAL - From Page 10 electoral votes). Nor is it likely that northern back­ tive orientation before then. They also argue that lash voters would join the Nixon cause, particularly legislative success requires important, dramatic, con­ since their frustration tends to focus on the "ins" and cessions to the conservative Southern Democrats who most particularly if the Democratic candidate is Ed­ control some Congressional Committees. ward M. Kennedy. A great many Wallace sup­ Ripon's recommendations rest primarily on con­ porters in the North this year were originally suppor­ siderations of good policy rather than good politics. ters of Robert Kennedy, it should be remembered. But we also believe that an effective reconciliation It would appear advisable, therefore, for Presi­ strategy. will prove to be the only viable political dent-elect Nixon to listen to the advice of California strategy in 1970 and 1972. He who works the Wal­ Lt. Governor Robert Finch, who, according to news­ lace political vein mines fool's gold. paper reports, maintains that the election of 1968 is In the first place, marginal districts in the House the last that will be decided by the un-young, the un­ and Senate in 1970 will continue to be located pri­ poor and the un-black. The new President should marily in more liberal areas of the country. also recognize that, recalcitrant committee chairmen House seats in the Northeast in 1970 as in notwithstanding, he can expect strong support in both 1968 will present the ripest field for Republican Houses of the Congress for progressive initiatives. reaping, a fact which Congressional leaders like Con­ He himself can deliver a bloc of Republican votes un­ gressmen Ford and Laird have repeatedly stressed available to President Johnson simply because he puts this year and which led them to favor a progressive a Republican stamp on progressive programs. And vice-presidential candidate in August. Democratic liberals are likely to support such pro­ In the Senate, the potential for Republican grams whatever their source in preference to com­ gains - and even control- in 1970 is also consid­ plete inaction. Early surveys show that when all per­ erable. Only eight Republican Senators are up for sonnel changes are taken into account the 91st Con­ reelection, while 25 of the Democrats must run gress is perhaps a shade more liberal than the 90th. again. This disproportion results from the twin GOP We believe that a bold and enterprising Nixon lead­ disasters of 1964 and 1958. But it is also true that ership could produce a legislative record which would the third of the Senate seats which are contested in match or surpass that of any of his predecessors. 1970 is a set with which Republicans have often done To be overconcerned about Southern Committee very well. In fact, the only two times the GOP has chairmen is to seek maneuvering room on the right controlled the Senate since the 1920's were just after which Nixon as President already has. It can be a the elections of 1946 and 1952. One reason for this valuable asset, but if he is to maximize his own free­ record is the fact that only five of the Senators who dom and power, he must attend to other constitu­ grouped with this one-third are from the South. encies. The Republican cause in the 1970 Senate can­ Just as Mr. Nixon has a great opportunity for not be aided significantly by a Southern strategy, creating an impressive domestic record, so does his especially since the mOst vulnerable Democratic credibility with conservatives give him far more free­ seats are in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Connecticut dom of maneuver in foreign policy, and particularly in the East, and in Wyoming, Utah and Nevada in in Vietnam, than Mr. Humphrey would have pos­ the West. Meanwhile the most vulnerable Repub­ sessed. The Republican ticket received no mandate lican seats are in California, New York, Delaware from the voters on November 5th, but an early and and Pennsylvania. honorable settlement of the Vietnam war will pro­ The political case against a pre-empt Wallace duce a wave of public enthusiasm which will give Mr. strategy is equally compeling in view of the 1972 Nixon his mandate. election. The only new electoral votes that Presi­ Successful performance, in short, both at home ident Nixon could hope to add to his 1968 total and abroad, is the best way for Mr. Nixon to achieve would be those of the five Wallace states, plus Texas the party growth he talks about and to aid his own and possibly Maryland, a potential total of 80 at the chances for reelection, and a progressive orientation outside. Even this gain would require such a con­ is the path to that achievement. Armed at last with servative stance by Nixon that Wallace - or a more Presidential power, the Republican leader is now free appealing surrogate - would decline to run against to create new political realities rather than passively him. But it is unlikely that Mr. Nixon, operating adapt to old ones. His narrow margin of victory need now in the bright spotlight which focuses on the not prevent him from being a good and even great President, could successfully keep right and success­ President. That is why members of the Ripon Soc­ fully hold on to swing voters who helped him carry iety, while we may look back with regret to what states like Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Wisconsin, might have been, also look forward with hope to Oregon and California (representing at least 127 what can still de.velop. -The Editors

11 60% white Protestants. Humphrey, a white Protestant, deed, while the minorities are polarizing against the won higher percentages than Kennedy did in the coun­ GOP, the Republicans hold on well-educated, upper-in­ try's most Catholic States-Rhode Island and Massa­ come whites has weakened in the North. Even Eisen­ chusetts! Of the ten states Humphrey won by more hower lost strength among some groups, particularly than 2%, he won nine by at least 60% in a three-party the farmers, but he was able to gain much more strength contest, eight of them by higher percentages than Ken­ elsewhere, among Catholics. For Nixon it will be much nedy had. Yet another indication of the polarization is harder to gain compensating increases among rednecks, the decrease since 1960 in the number of closely fought Catholics, Negroes, or Jews because of his admitted states from 16 to 8 despite the similarly close national shortage of charisma. popular vote. THE DRIP Meanwhile, the Republi- Republicans could write off 1964 as an aberra­ can Party must expect to lose tion, particularly after the revival in 1966. The 1968 GOES ON congressional and legislative seats returns are harder to dismiss. Despite election day fears, in the off-year election of 1970. Even the next Presi­ the party has avoided a stalemate in the Electoral Col­ dential year will not hold out anything better than re­ lege. However, a portentious omen for the future is gaining the Party's present minority position unless the failure of the Presidential ticket to pick up strength the Party's leaders recognize that white Protestants are beyond the states dominated by white Protestants. almost - but not quite - enough. The Republican Even worse, Republicans failed to make significant Party must soon come to grips with the fact that it is gains in the US House, (ten seats won, six lost) or in resting on a melting cake of ice. state legislatures (seven houses won, three lost). In- - CHRISTOPHER W. BEAL

THE BOTTOM OF THE TICKET:

The Auguries are Propitious Although Richard Nixon failed to carry the for a net gain of five. The briar patch of sales taxes House of Representatives, the GOP showed encourag­ seems to have been decisive in the two lost seats of ing "bottom-of-the-ticket" strength and is in the Montana's Tim Babcock and Rhode Island's John Cha­ strongest state-level position since the early Eisenhow­ fee. The Republican-Democratic line-up has now er years. The Republican Party now controls 19 state switched from 26-24 to 31-19 (although an almost legislatures (in both houses). Adding in California, sure Democratic selection to succeed Vice-President­ where a Republican Lieutenant Governor gives the elect Agnew will equilibrate the levels at 30-20). The GOP de facto control of the split (20-20) State Sen­ GOP also added two new lieutenant governors, six ate and brings the total to 20 including the two most attorneys general, a secretary of state, three treasurers, populous states in the union. and two auditor/controllers. The following table brief­ The balance of power shifted in nine upper and ly sums up state government alignment by party: lower chambers of which the Republicans gained con­ trol of five (the lower chambers of California, Nev­ LINE-UP 1966 Elect. 1968 Elect. ada, and New York and the upper chambers of Indi­ GOP Gov. & GOP Leg. 10 States 15 States ana and Iowa); tied one, (the Tennessee House, at 49- GOP Gov. & NP* Leg. 2 2 49 with a Republican-leaning Independent); and lost GOP Gov. & Split Leg. 4 6 three (the lower chambers of Alaska, Michigan and GOP Gov. & Dem. Leg. 9 8 Pennsylvania. ) Dem. Gov. & GOP Leg. 7 5 The net change of only 36 actual seats seems to Dem. Gov. & Split Leg. 3 2 Dem. Gov. & Dem. Leg. 12 belie all of these turnarounds, especially in comparison 15 - with the 1966 gain of 503 and the 1967 gain of 102. Total 50 50 However, as the research division of the Republican *NP: non-partisan National Committee has pointed out, the 36 net change is technically larger when one considers that reappor­ The new Republican strength comes at a crucial tionment in many legislatures has created smaller-sized time for the economically pressed states, and they will chambers. Thus the Republicans have gained a total of surely be looking to Washington for help. At the same 641 seats since 1964, but the Democrats have lost a time, a governor is part of the White House team for total of 1501 in that period, whittling down their overall the first time since the Roosevelt administration. All lead from over 2500 to about 1000. in all, the basic elements are propitious for the new In the state executive branches, the Republicans era in federal-state relations that President-elect Nixon gained seven new seats and lost two incumbent ones is anxious to inaugurate.

12 STATE BY STATE

ALABAMA: despite Wallace sweep, encouraged GOP eyes his red necks

Despite a Wallace sweep under the traditional Dem­ mer Party Chairman John Grenier and former guberna­ ocratic Rooster in Alabama, the three Republican incum­ torial candidate Jim Martin clashed head-on in a bid for bents for Congress held their seats. And party leaders in the National Committeeman seat. Martin won, but pro­ the state consider it an indication that Alabama will vote Martin men lost in a bid to enlarge the state committee. Republican for solid, conservative men who wage strong, If Martin remains the more powerful (and the more well-financed campaigns. conservative), Republicans still don't agree on who will The Republican victors were first district Congress­ be unifying and leading the party by 1970. man Jack Edwards of Mobile, second district Congress­ Also dividing the party is the issue of whether to man Bill Dickinson of Montgomery and sixth district hold a primary, which many feel the Republicans must Congressman John Buchanan of Birmingham. Notable do if they are seriously to challenge the Democrats, among the scarce Republican victories in local cam­ whose May primary, in which anyone can vote, has be­ paigns was Bill Joseph's re-election to the Montgomery come the general election in Alabama. The primary is County Board of Revenue (county commission). Joseph opposed mostly by the small and rural counties. ran a personal, well-financed campaign, bucked the While Republicans are fighting intra-party personal Wallace tide while three other GOP incumbents for battles and trying to put their machinery in order, the the same five-man board fell. Democrats have been cultivating new ground. The In other House races, Democrats ran unopposed by Republicans have declined to seek Negro participation a Republican for two of the five other seats. Former at the county level, but the Democrats, albeit quietly, Lt. Governor Jim Allen, a Democrat, rode the Wallace have sought to establish vote-getting connections with tide to the Senate over Montgomery County Probate the Alabama Democratic Conference, a coalition of Judge Perry Hooper. Negro groups. A special slate of Humphrey electors Republicans held their Congressional territory in­ pledged to oppose the Nixon electors and the Wallace dependent of the Nixon campaign. Nixon, who at­ roster was established by the liberal wing of the Demo­ tracted only bedrock Republicans, finished an embar­ cratic party. The Republicans seem to notice only the rassing third behind Humphrey who received almost all Democratic division, but the special Democratic group of the state's black vote. Republicans conscientiously attracted strong black support in the presidential vote. kept the Nixon campaign token and separate to avoid Republicans base their future hopes on the fact, as endangering local and congressional candidates on the outlined by one former GOP congressman, that the GOP ticket, as it was certain most of the state would "people who voted for Wallace this year were voting resent opposition to the Wallace presidential campaign. Republican four years ago." The fact is true, but Despite the separate Nixon campaign and the low whether these voters can be brought back to the Repub­ Nixon vote, party leaders feel the Nixon administration lican party remains to be seen. will provide an atmosphere in which the Alabama The voters who voted for Goldwater in 1964 and GOP can begin to grow as the Wallace fury is expended. Wallace this year, also voted for Democratic Governor As state GOP chairman Alfred Goldthwaite sees Albert Brewer as a Wallace Elector and Jim Allen for it: "this is the first time in years you've had a Presi­ Senate. Brewer is expected to seek re-election in 1970. dent on friendly terms with the people of Alabama." Allen will have six years to establish himself. Wallace Goldthwaite feels that if Nixon will send his repre­ would be eyeing John Sparkman's Senate seat, which sentatives into the state - for example, particularly comes up for re-election in 1972. the Secretary of Agriculture - he can begin to give the Still the Republicans are encouraged by the presi­ Republican party concrete meaning for Alabamians. dential outcome. A Republican victorious on the south­ At the moment, however, Republicans are strug­ ern strategy is good news. The state GOP emerged gling to give the party some real meaning for them­ from the 1966 elections with a $54,000 debt, which has selves. Though they hold their congressional ground, since been cut to $20,000. With the new auspicious at­ their other holdings are scant - zero in the state legis­ mosphere for state Republicans, they hope to knock lature. The five congressional seats won during the that off within six months and get down to serious 1964 Goldwater sweep were whittled down to the business. A committee will be appointed to study the GOP's urban stronghold as hopes for GOP increases in state primary laws to see whether the state executive 1966 were blasted when Lurleen Wallace beat Republi­ committee should cause a primary to be held, as recom­ can Jim Martin 2 to 1 in the governor's race. In the mended by the state convention. face of the Wallace presidential bid this year, no actual If the primary is held, more voters will become in­ GOP gains were possible. volved in Republican politics. And as Party Chairman What's more, the party has no strong, unifying Alfred Goldthwaite sees it, the Republicans could begin leader. At the state convention in Mobile in June, for- copping some carefully selected state legislative seats

13 by 1970. On other races, Republicans are not sure what to the Brooke-Richardson program in Massachusetts, will happen at this date. But, says an optimistic for­ and by campaigning hard, eked out a narrow victory. mer congressman: "Now there's a whole coterie of The party also did much better in the state legislature people who are ready to take the conservative cause and than it did eight years ago. go with it." During his time in office, John Chafee attracted to the Republican Party many young, articulate people, as well as persons who found the Democratic Party too full of tired old men who blocked the progress of the younger and more ambitious. These persons remain in control of the party which in turn is in a strong posi­ RHODE ISLAND: from distinction tion for a comeback with Chafee, DeSimone or some to disaster other person heading the ticket in 1970.

Whether the Rhode Island GOP has gone from distinction to disaster is a question uppermost in the the machine did its job minds of many political observers in Rhode Island. On OHIO: the surface, the answer to the question would seem to be yes. The Party, which two years ago elected three general officers for the first time in 28 years lost two Organization, unity, full campaign coffers and a of the three on election day. John Chafee, the most potpourri of aggressive candidates gave Ohio's GOP popular governor in Rhode Island's history - in 1966 a crushing state-wide victory this November 5th. Hunt­ - suffered a loss of 100,000 out of 400,000 votes cast ley-Brinkley afficionados may challenge this conclusion, in two years. The result was a narrow defeat by Superi­ because of their knowledge of Richard M. Nixon's and or Court Justice Frank Licht. Lieutenant Governor Jo­ William B. Saxbe's slim margins over Hubert H. Hum­ seph O'Donnell was also defeated by a small margin. phrey and John J. Gilligan. Saxbe's close election to a The lone survivor was Republican Attorney General senate seat and Nixon's narrow victory that gave him Herbert DeSimone. Ohio's twenty-six electoral votes fail to indicate how The reasons for this turnabout seem to be two: effectively Ohio's Republican machine rolled out votes The first is a five letter word: Nixon. Richard Nixon for its local, state and national candidates. lost the state to Hubert Humphrey by 125,000 votes. Although a Deshler, Ohio teenager provided Nix­ For the third time in a row Rhode Island gave the on with a slogan for his first days in office ("bring us Democrats their biggest victory in the nation. The Nix­ together"), this state's voters denied him a mandate to on dead weight effect was obvious, especially in the loss lead. Unlike Barry Goldwater's disasterous impact on of the two congressional races by large margins. local Republican candidates in 1964, Nixon's candidacy The second reason was taxes. Governor Chafee, in created no backlash for this state's GOP office seekers. a display of great political courage, had proposed a per­ It appears, however, that no Ohio Republican rode into sonal income tax early in this election year. He had first office on Mr. Nixon's coattails. On the contrary, a won the governor's chair by opposing such a levy. He case can be made that Nixon owes his shaky 91,229 vote argued that in the six year interval, the needs of the margin to the effectiveness of GOP organizations state had grown, and the tax had. become necessary. throughout Ohio. The Democrats countered with a limited income tax If an analyst can make one safe conclusion about which would affect only income from bank accounts, Ohio's recent campaign it is this: Success comes to investments in intangible property and capital gains. parties that utilize superior political techniques and He insisted that it was not an income tax. The voters maintain efficient organizations. Citizen concern over went on an anti-spending spree, defeated the governor, law and order, inaction and high taxes helped many Re­ and rejected most of the statewide bond issue proposals. publicans, but these issues can't explain impressive vic­ Republican overconfidence should not be over­ tories by moderate to liberal GOP Congressmen like looked as a cause either. Some GOP leaders, recognizing Robert Taft, Jr., William M. McCulloch, Charles W. the Party was in organizationally poor shape, suggested Whalen, Jr., and Charles Mosher. Conservative Con­ things would be much better in 1970 when Lieutenant gressmen like Donald E. Lukens, Donald Clancy, John Governor O'Donnell would win the governorship. On Ashrook, and William Harsha also scored lopsided tri­ January 1, O'Donnell will be out of office. umphs in their districts. While Whalen received 78% On the brighter side, the 1968 election stands in of the votes in his district, Lukens tallied a 71 % margin contrast to the 1960 disaster. In that year, all Republi­ in his bailiwick. Taft garnered 62% of the votes cast cans were defeated. The closest anyone came to winning in his contest, and Clancy gathered in 62% of the bal­ was the 50,000 vote defeat of incumbent Republican lots in his race. Statistics record a Republican sweep governor Christopher DelSesto. This year, Attorney rather than a victory for liberalism or conservatism. General DeSimone, by compiling a good crime fighting Age more than issues probably accounts for Fran­ record, by attempting to push through a recalcitrant ces P. Bolton's defeat after twenty-eight years as a Democratic legislature crime reform legislation similar Congresswoman from her twenty-second district. This

14 loss of one member still leaves Ohio's GOP with an 18-6 edge in seats in the House of Representatives. If Saxbe wishes to be known as a Republican pro­ Post-Election Mother Goose gressive, he must win this reputation as a working sen­ ator. With regard to issues in this campaign, Gilligan THERE WAS AN OLD NIXON clearly spelled out his opinions, while clever slogans There -was an old Nixon who said he was and vague rhetoric made it difficult for voters to fath­ thr01tgh, om Saxbe's positions. Although Saxbe's constructive crit­ He hired so many ad men that now he's icism of the Vietnam war should have gained him some called New. support .from Republican and Independent doves, Gilli­ gan's national publicity at Chicago and his image as a So cool and unruffled was his fall campaign, "new politics" man allowed Gilligan to inherit most That a surge by the Hump almost cost him of Kennedy's, McCarthy's and Rockefeller's workers. his reign. Saxbe, like Nixon, could certainly afford to make some overtures to students, blacks and academicians. HUBY One Ohio congressional race in particular should Huey, Huby, round as pie, cheer up progressive Republicans. While Hubert Hum­ phrey and John Gilligan carried his district, Charles Gushes words and loves to cry,. W. Whalen, Jr., walloped his young Democratic oppo­ From behind he had to run, nent by a vote of 113,386 to 31,702. In Ohio's third dis­ But couldn't pull a Truman. trict, an urban-industrial area with a Democratic tradi­ tion, Whalen scored an upset victory in 1966. His THE BONE WAS A BOMB smashing re-election shows that city voters will support Old Lyndon Johnson a man regardless of his party if he squarely confronts Reached in his stetson today's urban crisis. Whalen ran a campaign that stressed ending the war so that urban problems could To find his poor veep a bone,. receive top national priority. After his impressive win, He pulled out a bomb, Whalen's aides talk about their man seeking the gov­ And promised world calm, ernor's mansion in 1970. But the poor little veep had none.

ROLL ON, GEORGE George, George, the South's true son, He loves to rail against the young, MISSOURI: Danforth's star shines He'd steam-roll pickets as they lay, And work for peace with Curt LeMay.

Richard Nixon's narrow electoral victory failed to DAVE AND CHET provide coattails for Missouri Republicans as popular Dave and Chet Governor Warren Hearnes rolled up a big margin over Had hoped to get Republican candidate Lawrence K. Roos, and the young liberal dove Thomas Eagleton defeated former Con­ An early calculation,. gressman Thomas B. Curtis for the United States Sen­ A scrappy veep ate. The outstanding exception to the Democratic ticket Kept us from sleep, victory was Ripon-endorsed John C. Danforth, who was But can- 'You imagine Nixon? elected Attorney-General by a 50,000 vote margin over the Democratic incumbent. The leading Republican vote­ POLL RIDING getter, Danforth became the first Republican to win statewide office since 1946. The victory established the Ride a cock horse to Banbury Cross, 32-year-old lawyer and Episcopal minister as the man to To see the polls of each ward boss,. watch, an almost certain candidate for higher office. For candidates can't be sure what's up, Danforth's campaign stressed fair administration of the Until they take a daily Gallup. laws as a requisite for law and order, and was aided by campaign appearances of Mssrs. Lindsay, Rockefeller, HEY, DIDDLE, DIDDLE Hatfield, Percy and Romney. Hey diddle, diddle, Republican representation in Missouri's congress­ ional delegation dropped from two to one, as former The Vast Silent Middle Congressman Curtis' seat was lost to James Symington, Sitting in front of the tube. son of US Senator Stuart Symington. But look for Cur­ If you're thirty or older,. tis to get the kind of important presidential appointment Candidates hold ya that his role as a hard-working and innovative Congress­ By shouting law n' order. man has merited.

15 campaign in 1960. Though George Wallace drew some 5%, probably one-fifth of this was urban Democratic S. D'AKOTA: GOP steamrolls but "backlash" type. Some of the drop in Nixon's percent­ age can be attributed to those who supported other can­ Gubbrud flattened didates for the Republican nomination and who were rudely pushed aside in the spring. The general consen­ National attention was focused on Democratic Sen­ sus is that Richard Nixon can and will increase his pop­ ator George McGovern's bid for re-election to his sec­ ularity in South Dakota. Congressman Ben Reifel, who ond term in the United States Senate, and now there is was overwhelmingly re-elected, and who has a real feel­ considerable discussion in Republican circles seeking ing for the thinking of South Dakotans, stated: reasons why George McGovern received 570/0 of the "Though we have a Republican President, the total vote, despite overwhelming majorities piled up closeness of the election shows a divided American by most Republican candidates in that state. Progressive community. I feel that the new Republican Admini­ young Republican Attorney General Frank Farrar was stration is called upon to provide progressive pro­ elected Governor with 58% of the vote. All the other grams to fill the needs of disadvantaged Americans, state constitutional officers elected were Republican, av­ regardless of race, and also to fill the needs of the eraging better than 55%. The newly elected legislature meaningfully oriented young people to feel a part will be more than two-thirds Republican, and both in­ of the system. In South Dakota, the maturity and cumbent Repulican Congressmen were elected with large sincere involvement of teen-age Republicans proves majorities. that young people can be meaningfully involved. I While the majority view holds that McGovern was sincerely feel that Richard Nixon can provide this elected because of a well financed, extremely skillful kind of leadership. The absence of the ethnic coali­ campaign, there are many who find other explanations tion and organized labor support that the Democrat for former governor Archie Gubbrud's defeat. Though party has held togeth~r since Roosevelt's first election they admit that Gubbrud's campaign was top-heavy with could spell defeat and frustration for the Nixon ad­ central staff and poorly coordinated with county central ministration unless he can convince the American committees, was under-financed, and used ill-advised people, as he has convinced me, of his sincere con­ "personal attack" type advertising, they feel that other cern with the needs of the people. Without this un­ troubles are indicated by contrasting the 1962 general derstanding of his sincere concern our social fabric election. In that election, Archie Gubbrud was elected will continue to be divisive and the '72 campaign to a second term as governor with 560/0 of the total vote could be disastrously splintered." while George McGovern won his senate seat with only 50.20/0. It is obvious that South Dakota voters have now become extremely selective, and are not hesitant to cross over for a candidate who appeals to their imagination. Perhaps winds of change have reached South Dakota to NEW YORK: critical era ahead the extent that the Republican party can only win with progressive younger candidates who offer change from the traditional conservative party line. Certainly, South When Spiro Agnew blurted out that "when you've Dakota voters can no more be taken for granted as seen one slum you've seen them all," everybody stopped knee-jerk conservatives. looking for spectacular Nixon gains in New York City. When the arithmetic is performed, it appears that about Within the Republican party, the struggle for more a million voters took pains to split the ticket to vote progressive leadership will be intensified by this elec­ tion. Those who seized control of the national commit­ against Nixon and for other Republicans, notably Jav­ its. In the process, the GOP dropped two seats in New tee posts at the last state convention and who were then intimately involved in the progress of the Gubbrud York City, though it recouped them upstate. campaign will undoubtedly blame their opponents with­ Not everything was Agnew's fault, however. The in the party for the loss. Progressives will argue that the school strike hurt Republicans downstate, and Nixon success of other Republican candidates proves the need forces upstate did not get the backing from national for the party to be more progressive and responsive lest headquarters needed to turn out the vote. other Democrats of Senator McGovern's persuasion be For the future, the Republican Party in New York elected. They feel that Democrats can still be stopped can be gratified by its state-wide achievements, having in South Dakota; that McGovern's success is an individ­ won total control of the State Assembly, but it can ual one; that many Democratic party officials are disen­ ill afford complacency. In 1969, the election for Mayor chanted because McGovern at no time has sought to of New York City comes up. At the moment, John strengthen the state party organization, but rather has Lindsay is in deep trouble; and though he has shown always emphasized his personal appeal. If not, and more resilience previously, some observers think that he can­ Democrats are elected, an increasingly organized Demo­ not survive the current labor difficulties plaguing the crat party might doom Republican supremacy in South city. In 1970 both the office of governor and junior Dakota. senator are up. Charles Goodell, the up-state Repub­ Richard Nixon carried South Dakota with 51 % lican appointed by Governor Rockefeller recently to fill of the vote. This is contrasted to 58 % in his previous Robert Kennedy's seat, will face a difficult task holding

16 his seat if the Democrats come up with a superior can­ are already polarizing. Only three days after the election, didate. Although he is already making a rapid move to James Wilson (R), acting director of the Florida De­ the left, he may find campaigning in Harlem a bit more velopment Commission, submitted his resignation be­ difficult than that in Jamestown, from which he comes. cause of interference from "Kirk's Turks." There are The Democratic Party in New York has a ten year his­ rumors of other resignations. tory of nominating mediocre men for statewide office. Uncertainty in the Republican Party is matched by Only Robert Kennedy, a force unto himself, was an confusion in the Democrat Party. Maurice Ferre, state exception to this rule. But now the McCarthy and Ken­ coordinator for Humphrey, said, in a three and one-half nedy wings of the Party are actively struggling for new page statement, that the "real losers in this election are influeoce. They are looking to men like Steve M. Smith, the state-wide office holders who sometimes, when the Arthur Goldberg and Theodore Sorenson. The day may sun is shining, parade under the Democratic banner." be fast approaching when Republicans will no longer be There is talk of extralegal organizations setting up out­ winners because of the blunders of Democratic Party pro­ side the Democrat Party to promote candidates - even fessionals. talk of a new party. But Republicans have no reason to be discouraged, This leaves Governor Kirk, already running for re­ either. The new Assembly Speaker, with its powerful election, and Chairman Murfin with the responsibility patronage, will be Perry Duryea, who is a bright, attrac­ of holding the party together rather than clashing their tive, and aggressive Assemblyman from Nassau County. personalities. If they can accomplish this there will be Some say he has his eyes set on the Governor's office. no stopping the dynamic Florida Republican Party. Malcolm Wilson, present Lieutenant Governor, has been beneath Rockefeller for ten years, and has the potential to blossom into a state-wide force. He, too, is making few bones about his interest in becoming governor. Og­ den Reid, Congressman from the 26th District of New MAl NE: senescent GOP losing touch York (Westchester County), once again was re-elected by an overwhelming mandate, and continues to be an attractive candidate for statewide office. Maine gave its favorite son ticket a wide 10% margin All of these men are progressive Republicans who over the Nixon-Agnew ticket and returned its two Dem­ are actively concerned with urban problems, race rela­ ocratic Congressmen to their seats for good measure. tions, and the future. Maybe, when all is considered, The Muskie coattails were long enough to allow the Nixon's defeat might mean simply that New Yorkers Democrats to pick up strength in the Legislature as well. were not confident that he shared these qualities. In the First Congressional District, Republican chal­ lenger Horace A. Hildreth, Jr., ran much worse against incumbent Peter Kyros than many Republicans had been hoping for at the beginning of the campaign. Hildreth FLORIDA: Kirk vs Murfin had racked up a progressive record as a State Senator in the last session of the Legislature, bore the name of his father, a Maine Governor in the forties, and initially Florida's conservatives have come home to roost and seemed an attractive candidate. In addition, his cam­ in the process have built a strong two-party system. The paign was well financed and produced the most profes­ voters, who only two years ago voted overwhelmingly sional advertising that ever hit the state. for Governor Claude Kirk, turned the George Wallace Unfortunately, Hildreth didn't live up to it. In pub­ movement into a third-rate attempt by voting for Nixon. lic he appeared nervous and unsure of himself and con­ No. sttanger to voting Republican in Presidential cam­ sistently lost in a series of debates with Kyros. To some paigns ('52, '56, '60), most voters thought it impossible extent, also, his advertising backfired. Its slickness re­ to register Republican until several years ago. inforced feeling that he was a rich man's candidate, and Kirk, the political neophyte, who hurled his "some­ the slogan, "Hildreth Is The Better Man - Far Better," times Party loyalty asks too much" against the "ultra­ was a bit too much. Kyros was a hard man to beat, any­ liberal forces who threaten to take over the state of Flor­ way. He has a good feel for the press and recently got ida" was the first Republican to be elected Governor in considerable mileage in the state by attacking the award almost one hundred years. of a gun contract to a midwestern firm despite a lower Now the voters have proven their staying power bid from a plant in his district. On balance, the voters by electing a Republican senator as well. Republicans undoubtedly felt that he was better than Hildreth, even held on to two congressional slots and made gains in if not "far better." the State House of Representatives (though there was In the Second District, one-term Republican State Leg­ a slight loss in the State Senate.) islator Elden H. Shute, Jr., conducted a vigorous cam­ These gains were the result of a Party unification paign against Congressman William D. Hathaway. His drive after Kirk alienated himself from the Murfin (Par­ hardline conservative approach to the issues didn't wash ty Chairman) forces in his attempt to take over the state with the increasingly liberal electorate of Maine, how­ organization and to get on the ticket as V.P. ever, and they returned the lackluster but more liberal This unity may prove to be short-lived as the forces Hathaway to Washington.

17 The Republicans lost four seats in the State Senate STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, MANAGEMENT AND and ten in the House to whittle their respective margin CIRCULATION to 18-14 and 84-67. The losses were actually fewer than (Act of October 23, 1962; Section 4369. Title 39. United States many in both parties had feared. Code) 1. Date of Filing: October 1, 1968. The outlook for the Republican Party in Maine in the 2. Title of Publication: The Ripon FORUM. near future is frankly grim. Basic Republican strength, 3. Frequency of Issue: Monthly. both in the way of superior candidates and in voter alle­ 4. Location of Known Office of Publication: 14a Eliot giance, is shown by its continued dominance on the lower Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138. portions of the ticket. However, the 1968 election, not­ 5. Location of the Headquarters of General Business Of­ fices of the Publishers (not printers): 14a Eliot Street withstanding Muskie's appearance on the top of the tick­ Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138. et, is an indication of a continuing deterioration of Re­ 6. Names and Addresses of Publisher and Editor: Publisher: Thomas E. Petri. 14a Eliot Street; publican strength. While many sections of the State Editor: A. Douglas Matthews, 14a Eliot Street. remain solidly Republican, the Republicans are consis­ 7. The Owner is: The Ripon Society, Inc., 14a Eliot tently slipping in the cities and larger towns, and other Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138. Stockholders owning or holding 1% or more of total areas of economic and population growth. amount of stock: None. In this small State, with a relatively short ballot, there 8. Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security are few offices open to aspiring politicians. The Dem­ holders owning or holding 1% or more of total amount of bonds, mortgages or other securities: None. ocrats now hold the two Congressional seats, one of the 9. For completion by non-profit organizations authorized Senate seats and the Governorship. The aging Margaret to mail at special rates: Not applicable. Chase Smith is the occupant of the other Senate seat for 10. Circulation: Average No. Copies Actual No. of life, and she has little interest in building up the Repub­ Each Issue During Copies of Single Preceding 12 Issue Published lican Party. She has always been outside the regular months Nearest to Republican organization. Consequently, it is difficult A. Total No. Copies Printed Filing Date (Net Press Run) 3,375 4,500 for ambitious Republicans to build a power base and B. Paid Circulation difficult for the Party as a whole to make a comeback. 1. Sales through dealers and carriers, street vendors and On the liberal side of the party, there are several prom­ counter sales. 63 710 ising but as yet untested Republican politicians in the 2. Mail Suscriptions. 1,868 1,988 C. Total Paid Circulation. 1,872 2,698 State Legislature, where Republican-sponsored legisla­ D. Free Distribution (including tion has often been more imaginative and liberal than samples) by mail, carrier or other means. 925 1,341 that of its Democratic counterparts. E. Total Distribution Not to be forgotten is former Congressman Stanley R. (Sum of C and D). 2,797 4,039 F. Office use, Left-over, unac­ Tupper, who survived the Goldwater landslide in 1964 counted, spoiled after printing. 578 461 only to take a Johnson appointment to be Ambassador G. Total (sum of E & F­ to Expo '67 in Montreal. He is now employed by a should equal net press run shown in A) 3,375 4,500 Rockefeller financed urban affairs organization in New I certify that the statements made by me above are correct York, but is obviously still interested in public office. If and complete. -Thomas E. Petri, Publisher. he could survive the Republican primary, he would still be a formidable candidate. THE RIPON SOCIETY The Republican Party in Maine still carries an image of negative conservatism with· the younger voters of the RESEARCH STAFF State and this must be overcome. Will Undertake In a State where doctrinal considerations have not been improved in recent years, the Republican image can only SPONSORED RESEARCH be improved upon by the appearance of more imagina­ for tive, attractive and youthful candidates and office holders. " Republican Officeholders seeking to develop a Without a change in the Republican image, its fortunes legislative program on a particular issue. at the polls will continue to decline. The outlook for such a development is not good, and it is not helped by ':' Republican figures attempting to broaden their the prospect of Edmund S. Muskie heading the ticket knowledge of the needs and appropriate solu­ in 1970 again and possibly in 1972 as well. tions in a specific problem area. '" Community leaders desiring to make a contribu­ tion to the articulation of constructive proposals GOP LIPPMAN'S for social action. The FORUM is seeking to expand its network of volunteer correspondents. If there is no one on the Ripon's Sponsored Research is a flexible program masthead for your state or you would like to supple­ designed to meet the individual needs of issue ment correspondents' reports, why not help us watch development. All inquiries will be kept confi­ the GOP in your state? Drop a line to A. Douglas dential and should be addressed to: Matthews, 14a Eliot St., Cambridge, Mass. 02138 for The Ripon Society more information. Incidentally, wives, we are an 14a Eliot Street equal opportunity employer. Cambridge, Massachusetts 02188

18 The Nixon Opportunity - from page 1 Reform - from page 20 instead a banner which is both new and distinctively Re­ formance in each state. The list goes on and the publican. permutations multiply. Ripon has also mmmented from time to time on So do the pitfalls. Any enthusiasm for direct party strategies, both with praise and with criticism. We popular vote, for example, should be tempered by have cons~tently called for a revitalized Republican the fact that it would take weeks to settle who the Party which would have greater appeal to young people, winner was in any dose election; also, since every poor people, city dwellers, blacks and also to the indepen­ vote counted, so would every fraudulent ballot and dent suburbanite, the so-called "frontlash" voter. The the incentive for broad-based vote tampering would failure of our party to achieve this goal in the 1968 elec­ be tremendous. Splinter parties would be encour­ tion is discussed in an editorial which appears on page 3 aged also; former director of the census and voting of this issue, written by our FORUM editor and routinely expert Richard Scammon believes that if the direct released to the press on December 1. vote for President had been in effect this year, there News media coverage of the editorial quoted phrases would have been strong independent campaigns for which a number of our officers and board members would Rockefeller, McCarthy and a black power candidate. not have used in describing the campaign. But the editor­ To deal with the risk of eroding the President's ial also makes important, constructive points which we mandate might necessitate unwieldly runoff elections would not like to see obscured. For all of us share Mr. or limiting access to the ballot, a dangerous and un­ Nixon's earnest hope that he can "bring us together a­ democratic precedent. At the minimum, direct vote gain." And we are concerned, therefore, that those groups would certainly devalue the party nomination and which gave him the least support in the election are the weaken the party system as we know it. same groups in our SDciety which have long felt the most The attractiveness of more direct choice of the apart. electorate via increasing the importance of primaries That Mr. Nixon and his advisors appreciate the thrust should also be viewed in the light of the fact that it of these observations is already clear from his early ap­ would make money and media manipulation an even pointments. By and large they have been impressive and more decisive factor in the Presidential race. encouraging, building confidence among those who did not In short, electoral reform is not merely an in­ support Mr. Nixon and reinforcing it among those who nocuous bit of constitutional tidying up with unam­ did. There is every reason to hope, moreover, that a prom­ biguous and automatically sanguine results; yet the ising set of appointees will be matched by equally prom­ present set-up of the college is unsatisfactory enough ising legislative proposals and administrative performance. to mandate some changes. There is plenty of ground If that is the case, then the public response to effective for any commission that might be appointed to cover, government could provide the new President with the although such excellent studies as Congressional mandate which the election failed to give. Quarterly's Neal Peirce's The People'S President Mr. Nixon is the first professional Republican poli­ will make the spade work much easier. tician to occupy the White House in 40 years. His strong, A Commission is not designed to prevent ade­ personal interest in the structure and image of the GOP quate public debate, but rather to insure that the could do much to encourage a vibrant two-party system debate is productive; indeed, the existence of a Com­ in places where it does not now exist, in both the Demo­ mission will foster continued public interest. Other­ cratic South, for example, and in the Democratic cities. wise there is no real indication that the political An important resource in this effort will be the sense of motivation is sufficient to produce reform by 1972. new unity among Republicans, a quality which Mr. Nixon The prestige of a politically diverse and intelligently remarked on again and again this fall. led Presidential Commission provides the best op­ Still, it must also be remembered, as Ripon has often portunity for action. said, that a unified minority is still minority. We firmly George Wallace has promised to run again in believe that the GOP will not become an effective majority 1972 and there is no reason to doubt his intent or party until it can make significant inroads with groups ability. The process of Constitutional revision is a which have long been absent from its ranks. Nor can the long one and it is only prudent that action be taken new President be an effective healer without broadening now - early in Mr. Nixon's term. If the hard his appeal. This he is now in an ideal position to do. For maneuvering of 1972 Presidential politics begins be­ the Presidency mixes with its heavy burdens some splendid fore reform is implemented, the opportunity to pre­ opportunities. May President Nixon make the most of vent Constitutional confusion may have passed. them. - Lee W. Huebner - ROBERT D. BEHN .Mr. Huebner is President of the Ripon Society.

19 ELECTORAL REFORM

Options, Pitfalls, and Step No. 1

It was not until nearly noon Wednesday that form of a Presidential Commission. The recent ra­ the nation' was able to relax - not because Mr. tionale for such bodies has been to relieve political Nixon had been elected President, but because a pressure on the President; here the purpose would be President had been elected. During the previous to provide a vehicle that can eliminate the potential evening, the contrast between a communications log jam of the normal legislative process. Function­ technology, which displayed almost instantaneously ing as a mini-constitutional convention, the Com­ the election returns, and an archaic Constitution, mission's deliberations could hopefully produce a which presented the specter of all those votes being compromise proposal devoid of significant political indecisive was' particularly vivid. After a political opposition. year when many segments of the electorate doubted The principal concern of the commission would if the political process was at all responsive, an elec­ be to develop an election process that conclusively toral deadlock could have been the final blow to and equitably selects a President, but the mandate public faith in the Constitutional system. should be broad enough to encompass additional Now, because the crisis has been avoided, any needed reforms. The adoption of a universal 24- public pressure to improve the election system has hour polling time might be considered. Along with been dissipated. It has yet to be a prominent issue, this idea, the need to prevent early results from pre­ with specific proposals and counter proposals, de­ judicing later votes might call for specific statutes bated publicly and in depth. Direct election of the prohibiting the publication of any vote totals or "pro­ President has been proposed but not examined in jections" before all the polls have closed. The no­ sufficient detail to produce a political alliance of mination process cannot be philosophically separated those groups who would be hurt and consequently from the aim of ensuring representative and respon­ opposed. sive government, and should also be subject to inves­ This is a crucial point in any realistic discussion tigation. of electoral reform, because to change the method of A fairly extensive preliminary agenda can al­ selecting the President is automatically to tinker with ready be outlined from ideas that have begun to cir­ the political balance of the country; and on this ac­ culate in the pre-election discussion of possible re­ count political parties have always been suspicious forms. of past proposals to change the system. In 1956 On nomination reform, certainly, direct na­ John Kennedy argued against change because he tional primary should be debated and considered, as thought the bias toward large states was needed to well as the alternatives of "regional primaries" with provide an urban balance wheel to rural bias in elec­ a number of simultaneous primaries in adjacent tions to Congress and State Legislatures. Now, after states. As a preliminary step in primary reform, the redistricting, it is the Conservatives who fear they Commission should urge the states to adopt more will suffer from direct election of the President. open and responsive primaries. When Congress convenes in January, both Sen­ As for the election process per se, perhaps the ator Birch Bayh and Representative Emanuel Celler concept of electors might be kept but chosen on a have promised to hold hearings on electoral reform. congressional district rather than a statewide basis, However, the consequence of a slow public airing on thereby structuring an electoral college of 435 dis­ this touchy subject will be the almost immediate crete bits. Or the present statewide electoral system drawing of political battle lines along partisan or might be kept but automated to assure that each state's ideological grounds. electoral vote goes to the winner of each state. Or Precisely because positions have not solidified, direct national vote could be approached by elimin­ however, election reform is susceptible to intelligent ating the winner-take-all feature of the system' and political leadership. The opportunity for Mr. Nixon apportioning state electoral votes according to per- to move confidently and decisively is available in the - Please tum to page 19

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