Energiewende Germany‘s energy system and the status of the energy transition

Dr Falk Bömeke, LL.M.

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 25 June 2018

18-06-27 Referent 1 The Energiewende combines security of supply, cost-effectiveness and environmental protection

Environmentally sound Affordable and cost-effective

Secure and

reliable

2016

Edelman.ergo Source: Source:

6/27/2018 | 2 Five reasons for the Energiewende

• Phase-out of nuclear power generation • Reduce dependency on energy imports • Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets • Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful • New technologies as additional source of

growth and employment

BMWi Source: Source:

6/27/2018 | 3 Germany is gradually phasing out nuclear power up to 2022

Nuclear power plants in Germany 12/2017 12/2021 Gundremmingen B Gundremmingen C (1284 MW) (1288 MW), Grohnde (1360 MW), Brokdorf (1410 MW) GW 06/2015 Grafenrheinfeld (1345 MW) 12/2019 Philippsburg 2 12/2022 (1402 MW) Isar 2 (1410 MW), Emsland (1329 MW), Neckarwestheim 2

20 (1365 MW)

10

May 2005 May Nov. 2003 Nov. 2011 Aug. 2015 Jun. 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 already retired scheduled for retirement

Fukushima 2018Ecofys BMWi2018,Source: Nuclear Accident

6/27/2018 | 4 Five reasons for the Energiewende

• Phase-out of nuclear power generation • Reduce dependency on energy imports • Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets • Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful • New technologies as additional source of

growth and employment

BMWi Source: Source:

6/27/2018 | 5 Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports

100 100 renewables (RES)

90 90 lignite domestic production hard coal 80 80

70 70 gas

oil 60 60 other 50 50 oil imports 40 Dependence on imports 40 gas imports 30 30 hard coal imports

% of total primary energy supplyprimary energy % total of 60% RES target 20 20 (final energy) nuclear

10 10 target) (RES consumption finalenergy % total of RES target - 0 (final energy,

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 right axis) Source: Ecofys 2017 based on AGEB 2012, AGEB 2014 AGEB on2012, AGEB based 2017Ecofys Source:

6/27/2018 | 6 Five reasons for the Energiewende

• Phase-out of nuclear power generation • Reduce dependency on energy imports • Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets • Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful • New technologies as additional source of

growth and employment

BMWi Source: Source:

6/27/2018 | 7 Per capita carbon emissions of some western economies are still twice as high as those of China

16

12

percapita

2

8

Global average: 4.9 t CO2 per capita

Tonnes of CO of Tonnes 4

EDGAR (2016) and World BankWorld (2016) andEDGAR

4.9% 0.4% 1.1% 6.1% 0.4% 2.0% 18.8% 4.7% 2.0% 5.9% 16.6% 3.0% 2.8% 17.9% 12.9%

0

Asia

India

Brazil

China

Russia

Germany

Middle East Middle

USA & Canada & USA

Saharan Africa Saharan

-

Northern Africa Northern

Rest of Europe** of Rest

Sub

EU28 (excl. Germany) (excl. EU28 Percentage of global population

Australia & South Pacific South & Australia

Former Soviet Republics* Soviet Former

Source: Ecofys 2017, data fromdata 2017,EcofysSource: (2016) Latin America + Caribbean + America Latin *excluding Russia and EU members **Rest of Europa includes IS, NO, CH and the Balkans

6/27/2018 | 8 Efficiency measures allow clean growth by decoupling economic development from energy consumption

350 final energy productivity 300 final energy

productivity target

250 GDP status 2016 200 163,4 * primary energy demand 150 146,6 primary energy demand target 100 91,0

GHG emissions Index 1990=100 Index 50 72,6

GHG emissions

target 2017

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 * status 2015 Ecofys 2017 based on UBA 2017, World Bank 2017, BankWorldon2017, UBA based 2017 Ecofys National targets: +2.1% final energy 2020/2050: 20/50% 2050: 80-95%

productivity p.a. reduction vs. 2008 reduction vs. 1990 Energiebilanzen

Source: AG

6/27/2018 | 9 Germany has made significant progress. But more action needed to achieve the emission reduction targets

1400 Kyoto target (1st com period) 1200 other emissions households

1000

eq transportation 2 800 CO commerce, trade,

Mt services 600 industry

400 agriculture

200 energy industry

* preliminary data

0 Source: UBA 2017 UBA Source:

6/27/2018 | 10 Five reasons for the Energiewende

• Phase-out of nuclear power generation • Reduce dependency on energy imports • Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets • Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful • New technologies as additional source of

growth and employment

BMWi Source: Source:

6/27/2018 | 11 The Energiewende is Germany’s long-term energy and climate strategy

Achieved 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2017 % greenhouse gas 27.6% 55-55 Climate -7070 -8080 to to-95 95

reduction (vs. 1990) (2016) 40-40

% gross electricity 8080 36.2%36% 50 55 to 60 65 Renewable consumption 3535 4040 to to 45 45 65 Energy % gross final energy 14.8% 6060 18 30 4545 consumption (2016) 18 30 Primary energy -6.0%-6% -20 -50

consumption (vs. 2008) -50

BMWi 2016, UBA 2018, AGEB 2018 AGEB 2018, UBA BMWi 2016, on on Final energy productivity 1.1% p.a. +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) (vs. 2008) (2016) . Energy based

Efficiency 2018 Primary energy demand in -15.9% 4,380 PJ -80-80

buildings (vs. 2008) (2015) (2008)

Ecofys : : Final energy consumption in +1.3% -10 -15 to -20 -40-40 transport (vs. 2005) (2015) -10 -15 to -20 Source

6/27/2018 | 12 Germany’s renewables share of total power use reached a record of 36%

700

600 Electricity consumption in 2017

500

400 fossil wind; 17,7% fuels;

300 63,8% RES; biomass, geo- 36,2% thermal*; 8,6%

200 solar; 6,6% hydro; 3,3% 100 gas: 12% gross electricity consumption in TWh in consumption electricity gross *Share of geothermal (0,03%) 0 RES: renewable energy sources

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

renewables fossil fuels Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2018, AGEB 2018, UBA 2018 UBA 2018, AGEB on BMWi based2018,2018 Ecofys Source:

6/27/2018 | 13 Renewables have become Germany’s No. 1 source of electricity

Electricity mix in 2017 (654.8 TWh in total) 700,0 654,8 [CELLREF] 600,0 600,2 [CELLREF]

500,0 [CELLREF]

[CELLREF] 400,0 RES: 33.3%

[CELLREF] 2018 300,0 [CELLREF]

200,0 [CELLREF] [CELLREF]

Gross Gross electricity productioninTWh 100,0 [CELLREF] [CELLREF]

0,0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 hard coal lignite natural gas mineral oil others nuclear

renewables electricity consumption Source: Ecofys 2018 based onBMWi based2018Ecofys Source:

6/27/2018 | 14 Germany’s security of electricity supply remains one of the highest worldwide

400 354 350 300 250 200 150 114 100 68 55 failures in 2014 [minutes/year] 2014 in failures 42 50

Average duration of electricity supply supply ofelectricity duration Average 12 0

GermanyGermany Italy UK France USA Canada

Source: Ecofys 2017 based on VDE 2015, CEER 2015; EIA 2014;2015; EIA CEER on 2015, VDE based 2017Ecofys Source: SAIDI index, on basedData Association2014; ElectricityCanadian to according20142013fromandDataevents exceptional excluding availability

6/27/2018 | 15 Average electricity bill in Germany is comparable to those of other industrialised countries

Consumption (kWh) Price (€ ct/kWh) Electricity bill (€)

US 12305 13 1564 Denmark 3780 30 1127 Japan 5275 21 1095 Germany 3360 31 1035 Canada 11135 9 1019 France 5290 17 907

Spain 3900 21 814

UK 3910 20 769 German Chambers of Commerce Abroad Commerce of Chambers German Italy 2640 22 588

-20000 3000 8000 13000 0 20 40 0 1000 2000 Source: Ecofys 2018 based on Eurostat 2017, World Energy Council 2014, 2014, Council Energy World 2017, Eurostat on based 2018 Ecofys Source:

Data from 2014-2017

6/27/2018 | 16 Five reasons for the Energiewende

• Phase-out of nuclear power generation • Reduce dependency on energy imports • Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets • Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful • New technologies as additional source of

growth and employment

BMWi Source: Source:

6/27/2018 | 17 The energy transition is having positive effects

at various levels of the economy

Source: Edelman.ergo 2016Edelman.ergoSource:

6/27/2018 | 18 The renewable energy sector has created over

10 million jobs worldwide in 2017

Source: IRENA IRENA 2018 Source:

6/27/2018 | 19 Global trend: Auction results highlight rapidly declining costs for renewables

Denmark* The Netherlands* 1.9 5.5 6.0 7.4 UK* Jordan

8.5 Germany* 6.0 4.2 4.2 0 USA UAE 2.7 Morocco 2.4 2.5 Mexico India 1.9 1.8 4.1 3.8 Australia

3.8 2018, PV Magazine, Bloomberg Magazine,PV 2018, Saudi Arabia

Peru 2.3 BNetzA on on Zambia 4.8 3.7 6.0 Brazil based South Africa 4.5 3.0 Chile 6.4 4.7 2.1

Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar Lowest awarded bids 2018 Source:Ecofys All prices in US ct/kWh at 1.1 USD/EUR * Countries with a feed-in premium (instead of a feed-in tariff / PPA) The Energiewende as a whole enjoys relatively large support within the German population

Attitudes towards the Energiewende in %

ISI

We need a resolute switch to renewable energy 5 13 23 27 33 disagree

mostly disagree Fraunhofer I am convinced that the energy transition will lead undecided 20 26 29 19 6 to shortages in the supply of electricity mostly agree agree Electricity supply from renewables is, in the long 5 16 26 31 23 term, more affordable than from other sources

Germany's competitiveness in the world will decline 22 27 25 19 7 due to the energy transition

The energy transition will allow citizens to produce 7 13 31 30 20

their own energy and so become more Münster, Stuttgart,of Universityof University independent

0 20 40 60 80 100

Source: 2016 ISE and

6/27/2018 | 21 Thank you for your attention

Contact details

Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie Referat IIA1 Scharnhorststr. 34-37 10115 Berlin, Germany

Dr. Falk R. Bömeke, LL.M. [email protected]

www.bmwi.de

18-06-27 Referent 22