Germany: on Track to a Successful Energiewende
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Germany: On Track to a Successful Energiewende Martha Ekkert, Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Deputy Head of Division „International and External Energy Policy, Multilateral Cooperation in Energy, Energy Cooperation with Industrialized Countries“ 9 March 2016 16-03-09 Referent 1 CO2 emissions by country and population 18.00 16.00 ) 14.00 12.00 Peninsula 10.00 8.00 Arabian 6.00 t CO2 capita per in 2014 4.00 Saharan Africa Saharan 2.00 - Latin America & America& Latin Caribbean the India Brazil Western Asia Asia (incl. Western Asia (excl.Asia Asia) Western United States & Canada & States United Germany China Northern Africa Australia & New New & Australia Zealand & EU 28 Switzerland Sub Russia & fomer Soviet Union fomerRussia & Soviet 0.00 5% 0%1% 19% 5% 6%2% 6% 17% 3% 3% 18% 12% 500 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,260 Population (in percentage and millions) Source: Ecofys 2015 based on data from Edgar Joint Researchfrom EdgarJointon data based 2015Ecofys Source: BureauReference2014UN andPopulation Centre2014 The per capita emissions of large western economies are still twice as high as those of China. United States & Canada & States United 16-03-09 Martha Ekkert 2 Energy imports and domestic production in Germany 100 90 renewables domestic production 80 lignite 70 60% RES hard coal target gas 60 oil 50 oil imports primary energy supplyenergy primary 40 gas imports 30 import dependence otal t hard coal imports 20 nuclear % of 10 total imports 0 renewables target 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: AGEB 2012, AGEB 2014 2012,AGEB AGEB Source: The Energiewende hits many birds with one stone as renewables and efficiency reduce Germany’s energy dependence. 16-03-09 Martha Ekkert 3 German nuclear phase-out timeline Jun 2015 Dec 2021 Grafenrheinfeld Gundremmingen C (1288 MW), (1345 MW) Grohnde (1360 MW), GW Fukushima Brokdorf (1410 MW) Dec 2017 Dec 2022 Grundremmingen B Isar 2 (1410 MW), (1284 MW) Emsland (1329 MW), Neckarwestheim 2 20 Dec (1365 MW) 43% 2019 Philippsburg 2 Grafenrheinfeld (1402 MW) 10 Ecofys 2015, BMWi 2015BMWi 2015,Ecofys : 57% Source today Jun 2015 Jun Aug 2011 Aug Nov 2003 Nov May 2005 May 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Nuclear phase-out will reduce Germany’s total power capacity. The remaining 8 nuclear power plants will be phased out by 2022. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 4 Five reasons for the Energiewende . Development of new technologies as new sources of growth and employment . Energy policy can be both sustainable and economically successful . Reduce dependency on energy imports . Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets . Phase-out nuclear power generation The Energiewende is a long-term strategy based on public acceptance. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 5 Key elements of the Energiewende Supporting fields of action Market and system integration Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Key legislation: Energy research and Key legislation: Energy Saving Ordinance development Renewable Energy Sources Act Heating Cost Ordinance Renewable Energy Heat Act • Increasing energy • Steady growth productivity European energy and • Environmentally friendly • Cost-efficient savings climate policy energy supply Energy efficiency and renewables secure a sustainable energy transition. Martha Ekkert 9-Mar-16 6 2050 Energiewende targets Achieved 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2014 2015, -55 % greenhouse gas -27% -70 Climate -80 to -95 BMWi reduction (vs. 1990) -40 2014, % gross electricity 32.5% 80 50 55 to 60 65 consumption (2015) 40 to 45 Renewable 35 BMWi Energies % gross final energy 60 13,7% 18 45 consumption 30 2010,BMU/ -20 % primary energy - 7.3 % 2016Agora 2015, consumption (vs. 2008) (2015) -50 final energy productivity Government Energy 1.7% p.a. +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) (vs. 2008) 2014,AGEB Efficiency : Federal : Stat building renovation ~1% p.a. doubling of renovation rate: 1% 2% p.a. - % transport energy AGEE 1.7% -10 -40 Source consumption (vs. 2008) The energy transition follows a transparent, long-term strategy with specific targets. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 7 Political steering of the Energiewende Federal and state coordination • Chancellor • Prime ministers of the Länder In charge of the Energiewende Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Electricity Market Energy Efficiency Stakeholder Platform Platform 2014 Dialogue BMWi Energy Grids Buildings Research and : Platform Platform Innovation Platform Source Monitoring report “Energy of the Future” Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 8 German primary energy consumption by energy source 15,000 14,000 Target: target minus 20% 13,000 12,000 others 11,000 10,000 nuclear [PJ] 9,000 8,000 natural gas 7,000 lignite Petajoule 6,000 5,000 hard coal 4,000 3,000 oil 2,000 2015 1,000 renewables 0 AGEB * preliminary data Source: Energy efficiency and the switch to renewables are gaining momentum. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 9 German gross electricity production 2005 total: 622,6 TWh 2015 Total: 647.1 TWh renewables share: 62,5 TWh renewables share: ~ 194 TWh Oil & Other: [CATEGOR[VALUE] Oil & Other: Y NAME]: 5,8% [VALUE] Hard Coal: [CATEGOR 21,5% [CATEGOR Y NAME]: Wind: 4,4% Nuclear Y NAME]: [VALUE] Energy: Solar: 0,2% [VALUE] RES: [CATEGOR 26,2% RES: 10% Biomass:2,3 [VALUE] Y NAME]: % [CATEGORY [CATEGOR[VALUE] NAME]:11,7 [CATEGOR Y NAME]: % Lignite: Y NAME]: [CATEGOR [VALUE] Hydro: 3,1% Hydro:3.0% 24,8% [VALUE] Y NAME]: [CATEGOR [VALUE] Y NAME]: [VALUE] Source: Ecofys 2016, AGEB 2015, Agora Energiewende 2016 2015,EnergiewendeAgoraAGEB 2016,EcofysSource: Renewables have overtaken each conventional source to become the largest electricity source in just ten years. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 10 Cornerstones of the Renewable Energy Sources Act • Guaranteed grid access for renewables; priority transmission and distribution • Support payments for every kWh produced • Feed-in premium (and feed-in tariffs in some cases) • From 2017 on mostly based on auctions • Technology specific payments, also with regard to further provisions (e.g. site and size) • Renewables’ support costs are offset through the EEG levy; the special equalization scheme reduces the burden for energy-intensive industries Kommunikation, Ecofys, BMWi 2016BMWi Ecofys,Kommunikation, • Grid operators ensure grid stability independently from the public budget - • Expansion corridors guide growth pathway • Regular monitoring and evaluation; accompanying research Source: ERGO Source: Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 11 Renewable Energy Sources Act Amendment 2014 More planning security Binding target corridors for RES deployment Introducing quantity control mechanisms More efficiency Affordability Focus on cost-efficient technologies More market integration Increase market integration through premium system Environmentally- Tendering scheme for ground-mounted PV friendly energy supply More diversified distribution of costs EEG levy on self-supply Security of supply Adjusted exemptions for the industry More Europe Open auctioning scheme for European neighbours Martha Ekkert 9-Mar-16 12 Renewables share in gross electricity consumption 50 Overall target corridor 45.0 45 . In 2025: between 40% and 45% RES-E 40 . In 2035: between 55% and 40.0 60% RES-E 32.5 in % in 35 30 Capacity additions share . Onshore wind and PV 25 2 500 MW (2.5 GW) per 20 17 year each 2015 . Bioenergy 100 MW per year 15 10.2 . Offshore wind 6.5 GW by Renewables 10 6.2 2020, 15 GW by 2030 : Ecofys, BMWi : 5 Focus on Wind and PV as Source 0 most cost-effective solutions 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 13 RES levelised cost of electricity in Europe 2014, 2020, 2030 Source: Fraunhofer ISI 2014ISIFraunhofer Source: Renewables are increasingly competitive with conventional power plants. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 14 Auctions to replace feed-in premium based support Results of German renewables auctions pilots scheme for ground-mounted PV in April 2015: • 500 MW were on offer in three separate rounds: 150 MW in 1st and 2nd round each, and 200 in 3rd round • Competition was high and therefore prices declinded significantly. • A variety of different types of actors was successful. Level of feed-in premium as result of the auctions compared to the old EEG 10 9.5 9.17 BNetzA 9 Feed-in permium of old EEG 8.5 8.49 cent/kWh 8 8.00 Results of auctions in cent/kWh 7.5 1st round (pay-as-bid) 2nd and 3rd round: uniform pricing 7 on based2016Ecofys Source: Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016 The auction scheme led to a further decrease in PV support levels. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 15 Key pillars of the NAPE 2015 Stepping up Energy efficiency Individual energy efficiency as a return and responsibility for in buildings business model energy efficiency • Energy efficiency • Tender model • Energy efficiency incentive • Default guarantees networks programme for energy • Top-Runner strategy • Energy efficiency performance strategy for buidlings contracting Source: Ecofys 2015 based on European Commission 2014, BMWi BMWi 2014,onCommission European based 2015Ecofys Source: 16-03-09 Speaker 16 Energy efficiency policy frameworks 2030 Targets EU policy Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) Energy Performance of Ecodesign and Energy Buildings Directive (EPBD) Labelling Directive Policies in Energiekonzept (2010) Germany National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency 2015 (NAPE) (2014) Energy Efficiency Strategy for Buildings Ecofys (2015) Source: Germany’s energy efficiency policy is embedded in the EU framework. 16-03-09 Speaker 17 Benefits of fostering energy efficiency and renewables INVESTMENTS ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGIC EFFECTS OF THE “ENERGIEWENDE” RGO RGO 2014 Source: E Source: The energy transition has positive effects on various levels of the economy. Martha Ekkert 16-03-09 18 German energy import cost savings in 2014 bill. € 40.0 26.0 35.0 25.1 24.0 22.2 30.0 import costs saved 18.6 due to energy 25.0 efficiency 20.0 import costs saved 15.0 due to RES 10.0 9.1 8.8 10.0 8.4 6.1 6.6 7.1 on BMWi 2015on 2.9 4.4 5.6 6.3 5.0 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.4 based 0.0 In 2014, Germany could save about €13 billion compared EcofysSource:, to the previous year by reducing the import costs for fossil fuels.