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Home , Hurricane Matthew

eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Matthew Information from NHC Advisory 25A, 8:00 AM EDT Tue October 4, 2016 On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew will move near eastern later today, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 145 mph Position Relative to 125 miles S of the eastern tip of Speed: (category 4) Land: Cuba Sunday along the outer Est. Time & Region: banks of Min Central Pressure: 934 mb Coordinates: 18.4 N, 74.2 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 100 mph 185 miles Bearing/Speed: N or 5 Degrees at 9 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (category 2)

Forecast Summary ■ Hurricane conditions are already affecting the southwestern portion of , and these conditions will spread northward today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today, the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the remainder of Haiti today, eastern Cuba later this morning, the southeastern Bahamas later today, and the central and northwestern Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of and along the southern coast of the within the warning area today, and will spread northward into the tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later today. ■ Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: 15-25 inches with isolated areas up to 40 inches in Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic; 8-12 inches with isolated areas up to 20 inches in Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti; 4-6 inches with isolated areas up to 10 inches in Eastern Jamaica; 8 -12 inches, with isolated areas up to 15 inches in ; 2-5 inches with isolated areas up to 8 inches in Turks and Caicos Islands; 1-3 inches with isolated areas up to 5 inches in Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic; 1-2 inches with isolated areas up to 3 inches in Western Jamaica. Life- threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. ■ The combination of a dangerous and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels: 7-11 feet on the Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz; 7-10 feet on the South Coast of Haiti; 4-6 feet on the Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey; 2-4 feet on Jamaica; 3-5 feet on the Gulf of Gonave in Haiti; 1-3 feet on the Southern coast of the Dominican Republic; 10-15 feet in The Bahamas. Forecast Track for Hurricane Matthew Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Matthew (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for: Haiti; Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas; Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island;

Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Island, and New Providence. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, Jamaica, Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti.

Summary of Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic Season to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 TS Matthew 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 10/04/16) 13 5 2 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016 12 TS Lisa TS Karl 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/04/15) 10 3 2 TS Julia 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Ian 8 TS Hermine 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Gaston TS Fiona 2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 TS Earl HU Matthew 4 TS Danielle HU Hermine (Colorado State University at July 1,‘16) TS Colin HU Gaston M Matthew 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 TS Bonnie HU Earl M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Tropical Storm Activity to Date Matthew is the thirteenth named storm, fifth hurricane, and second The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and major hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It saw ten named storms by October 4, one of which was Major shows, for example, that Matthew became the season’s second major

Hurricane Joaquin. hurricane on September 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season pressure area located about 500 miles northeast of . Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) Satellite wind data indicate that the low is producing winds to both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average force, and the system could become sufficiently well organized to remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at October result in the formation of a tropical storm later today. The low is 4 is 18% for all hurricanes and 13% for major hurricanes. expected to move generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the next few days, and upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development. Formation chances are 80 percent through 2 days and 80 percent through 5 days. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook on October 4, 2016 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652

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