News Release October 7, 2016 12:30 p.m.
Folly Beach Hurricane Matthew Update 4
The Governor’s evacuation order is in full effect. The City of Folly Beach remains at OPCON 1 today which signals that an maximum emergency preparedness is in effect. The City Emergency Operations Center is operational and the Mayor has declared a State of Emergency.
Latest information regarding Hurricane Matthew from the National Weather Service • Wind, heavy rain, and other effects including possible tornadoes expected to begin after 6pm tonight, with 40-60mph sustained winds, gusts around 80 mph, 8-14 inches of rainfall, and a storm surge of up to 8 feet above ground (depending on tides and wave activity) • Worst effects of the storm will occur during the day on Saturday • Please see article below on forecasted effect of the storm on our beach
Citizen Information
• All City Hurricane Information is included in our online plan: http://www.cityoffollybeach.com/city- departments-services/public-safety/hurricane-info/ • For all other citizen and visitor questions, please contact Folly Beach Dispatch at 843-588-2433 or the Charleston County Citizen Information Line at 843-746-3900 (non-emergency) or call 911 in an emergency • Public Safety is doing a City-wide door-to-door roll call to identify residents who have remained and marking homes with residents remaining o Emergency responders will not respond after the winds reach 40 mph. People who choose not to evacuate risk being on the island without emergency repsonders; emergency responders will be evacuated prior to the storm • Updated access policy o Effective at 5pm today, Friday October 7, only residents will be permitted to enter the island and will only be permitted to enter until winds reach 40mph. o Once sustained winds reach 40mph, the causeway will be closed and access to the island will be closed. Cars should not be on the road at this time. o The beach will closed to visitors for both visitor safety and the dangers of exacerbating flooding or potential property crime on the island • Re-Enry: Access to the City will remain closed until Public Safety deems it safe to return. At that time, only residents with two forms of ID will be permitted o Re-entry for property owners and then employees will be phased in after that time o Do not attempt to return to the island until you receive word (via Code Red auto-call, City social media, and local media) that you will permitted access. Clear timeframes will be publicized after the storm, depending on conditions • Evacuation routes can be found here: http://www.scdot.org/getting/evacuation.aspx o I-26 has resumed normal directions and the buses are no longer running o Charleston County Bridge Policy: http://www.charlestoncounty.org/departments/emergency- management/files/BridgeProceduresHighWinds.pdf o Please secure all garbage cans and loose yard items that may become projectiles in the storm • The Charleston County shelter that accepts pets is Edmund A. Burns Elementary is 3750 Dorchester Road in North Charleston • To report power outages or downed power lines, please contact SCE&G at 1-888-333-4465 or visit their website www.sceg.com/storm
Emergency Notifications: Folly Beach residents can register for Code Red, a free program that allows the public to receive voicemail and text message notifications about emergency situations, such as critical information quickly in a variety of situations, such as severe weather, unexpected road closures, missing persons and evacuations of buildings or neighborhoods or a hurricane evacuation order. When notified, citizens will hear a message that gives details on the emergency and includes instructions on any actions they should take. Register online at: http://www.cityoffollybeach.com/city-departments-services/public-safety/emergency-notification/
For information on City of Folly Beach Government news and services, the public can: • Visit our website: www.cityoffollybeach.com • Facebook: City of Folly Beach & Folly Beach Department of Public Safety
Hurricane MATTHEW Will Be with Us for Days Tim Kana PhD President Coastal Science & Engineering
Hurricane MATTHEW is on track to create a major wave event along the South Carolina coast. And that will be bad news for the oceanfront.
The storm surge will be much lower than HUGO’s in 1989 because MATTHEW will track parallel to shore rather than coming straight in from the ocean. It will initially produce onshore winds as it moves northeast. Then winds will back around and come from the west as the storm center passes each coastal town. This will play out on Saturday, October 8th as the hurricane moves from Savannah to points north.
As the storm enters South Carolina waters, wave heights close to shore are likely to exceed 16 feet according to the latest NOAA models. This will be the energy that cuts back the beach, washes out dunes and initiates damage to houses that are too close to the high tide line.
Yes, we’ve seen this before, but here’s what will be different. MATTHEW is expected to loop slowly around to the southeast and still be just off the SC coast on Monday. The projected track means winds will keep pumping energy into waves, making them larger, and driving them directly onshore for days. Models are predicting 8-10 feet waves close to shore Sunday through Tuesday. Therein lies the problem.
Our beaches will have to absorb more big waves than would be typical during most hurricanes. These waves will be much higher than the ones we experience during northeasters that linger for days. We’ve seen winter storms – northeasters- cut the beach back by 40 feet. HUGO cut the dunes back over 80 feet at Litchfield Beach well north of its storm center. The models suggest MATTHEW will do even worse. As things stand now, South Carolina will have to get through at least five or six high tide periods of big waves. The first or second high tide early Saturday afternoon will reshape the beach, but the successive high tides are likely to produce major structural damage. By then, the waves will be breaking directly on houses that lost their dune protection in the preceding tide. A minor consolation is the fact that predicted tides through Tuesday are at least 1 foot lower than the highest tides of the month. But the hurricane’s low pressure will offset that advantage and lift water levels higher even with its center poised offshore. In short, we’ll have the equivalent of king tides for days. From all accounts this will be an extreme event. The waves will swash up and over the dunes carrying sand under houses and on to roads. The post-storm beach will appear to be wider and flatter than many people have ever seen. Houses that were safely behind dunes on Saturday will find themselves perched on the active beach by Tuesday, if they are still standing.
The most vulnerable beachfronts will be places where houses are less than 100 feet from the dry sand beach. This includes much of Edisto Beach, Folly Beach, Pawleys Island and Garden City.
Seawalls that have been buried for years will be re-exposed. In many cases, these structures will reduce damages, but they will not protect all properties as we’ve seen in other storms.
In the aftermath, here are some things, the state, municipalities and property owners should anticipate doing once power is restored and communities assess their damages: - Clear roads of sand and remove debris - Push up an emergency dune along vulnerable properties - Mobilize equipment to sift debris from sand and place the sand back on the beach. - Install sand fencing and dune plantings to jump start regrowth of dunes
Beaches are quite resilient and bounce back in a few years after major storms. This won’t happen quickly, but it should be a prime consolation as we look forward to next summer at the beach.
Each hurricane has its own behavior and it is never smart to trust anyone to predict the precise impacts and outcome. But in the case of MATTHEW, South Carolinians should assume that the storm will still be damaging our oceanfront through October 11th –next Tuesday. I would like nothing better than to be wrong about this.
Tim Kana 6 October 2016
Dr. Kana is president of Coastal Science & Engineering Inc based in Columbia. He served as special advisor to the Governor’s Office during the response to Hurricane HUGO.
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