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Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, Observations, and an Analysis of Coastal Change

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Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, Observations, and an Analysis of Coastal Change Hurricane Matthew: Predictions, Observations, and an Analysis of Coastal Change By Justin J. Birchler, Kara S. Doran, Joseph W. Long, and Hilary F. Stockdon Open-File Report 2019–1095 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior DAVID BERNHARDT, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey James F. Reilly II, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2019 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit https://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS (1–888–275–8747). For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit https://store.usgs.gov/. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Birchler, J.J., Doran, K.S., Long, J.W., and Stockdon, H.F., 2019, Hurricane Matthew—Predictions, observations, and an analysis of coastal change: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2019–1095, 37 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ ofr20191095. Cover: Oblique aerial photographs in Vilano Beach, Florida, collected before (top) and after (bottom) Hurricane Mat- thew. Storm waves and currents eroded sand dunes and exposed previously buried building foundations. The yellow arrows in each image point to the same buildings in both photos. ISSN 2331-1258 (online) Acknowledgments The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project would like to thank the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Joint Airborne Lidar Bathymetry Technical Center of Expertise for the post-storm data collection effort. We would also like to thank the many scientists and support staff who invested long hours during the 2016 hurricane season. Specifically, we thank our colleagues in the USGS in St. Peters- burg—Xan Fredericks, Nathaniel Plant, and Jolene Gittens—for their invaluable contributions to the Hurricane Matthew effort. We thank the USGS Caribbean-Florida and South Atlantic Water Science Centers for their as- sistance with data collection. This Open-File Report is part of a succession of reports (Hurricane [Name of storm]: Predictions, Observa- tions, and an Analysis of Coastal Change) about hurricanes in the western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and it includes descriptions of storm conditions and effects. As a series, there is a common language used for consistency and ease of comparison from storm to storm and year to year. iii iv Contents Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................................................... iii 1. Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................1 2. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................................1 3. Storm Overview ....................................................................................................................................................2 3.1 Storm History ..................................................................................................................................................2 3.2 Extent of Hurricane-Force Winds ...................................................................................................................3 3.3 Wave Climate .................................................................................................................................................5 3.4 Storm Surge ...................................................................................................................................................5 3.5 Water Levels at the Coast ..............................................................................................................................6 4. U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Change Predictions ..........................................................................................7 5. U.S. Geological Survey Coastal-Change Observations .......................................................................................9 5.1 Oblique Aerial Photography ...........................................................................................................................9 5.2 Airborne Lidar Topographic Surveys ............................................................................................................10 5.3 Overwash Delineation .................................................................................................................................11 6. Forecast Validation .............................................................................................................................................12 6.1 Florida ..........................................................................................................................................................14 6.2 Georgia .........................................................................................................................................................15 6.3 South Carolina ..............................................................................................................................................15 6.4 North Carolina ..............................................................................................................................................15 7. Coastal-Change Analysis ...................................................................................................................................16 7.1 Florida ..........................................................................................................................................................17 7.2 Georgia .........................................................................................................................................................23 7.3 South Carolina ..............................................................................................................................................27 7.4 North Carolina ..............................................................................................................................................31 8. Conclusion .........................................................................................................................................................35 9. References Cited ...............................................................................................................................................36 Figures 1. Map showing Hurricane Matthew track and intensity, moored National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoys recording wave height and period, NOAA tide stations recording tide and surge, and U.S. Geological Survey sensors recording stormwater levels .......................................................................3 2. Map showing the maximum sustained wind speeds generated by Hurricane Matthew, as calculated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center .............................................4 v 3. Graph showing: A, significant wave height and B, dominant wave period during the passage of Hurricane Matthew, as measured by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Data Buoy Center buoys .............................................................................................................................................................5 4. Graph showing storm surge determined by the tidal residual, equal to the measured tide level minus the predicted tide level ............................................................................................................................................6 5. Graph showing water levels measured by U.S. Geological Survey rapidly deployed storm-tide and wave- height sensors on beaches in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina along the track of Hurricane Matthew ........................................................................................................................................7 6. Screen-capture image of Hurricane Matthew pre-storm forecast probabilities of coastal change from the Coastal Change Hazards Portal updated 1200 Coordinated Universal Time October 7, 2016, National Hurricane Center Advisory 37 ...........................................................................................................................8 7. Map showing Hurricane Matthew pre- and post-storm aerial photography, left; and airborne lidar coverage, right .............................................................................................................................................10 8. Aerial imagery of Cape Canaveral, Florida, A, C, E; and St. Augustine, Florida, B, D, F ............................12 9. Map showing Hurricane Matthew overwash extent delineations and breach locations for Florida through North Carolina. ...............................................................................................................................13 10. Combination histograms showing
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