Service Assessment October 2016 Hurricane Matthew
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Service Assessment October 2016 Hurricane Matthew U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland Cover Photograph: Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite view from the NASA Terra Satellite of Hurricane Matthew taken at 12 pm EDT, October 7, 2016. ii Service Assessment October 2016 Hurricane Matthew August 2017 National Weather Service John D. Murphy Chief Operating Officer iii Preface Hurricane Matthew left a trail of destruction from the Caribbean to Virginia from September 29 – October 9, 2016. High winds, pounding surf, storm surge, and historic flooding led to widespread, devastating impacts along the southeast U.S. coastline. Hurricane Matthew traveled northward nearly parallel to the coast before making landfall in South Carolina. The storm produced winds in excess of 100 mph, storm surge in excess of 7 feet, and up to 20 inches of rainfall. Weather-related fatalities occurred up and down the southeast U.S. coast. The majority of fatalities were the result of flooding, making inland flooding a primary focus for this assessment. Because of the significant impacts of the event, the National Weather Service (NWS) formed a service assessment team to evaluate its performance before and during Hurricane Matthew’s impacts. The NWS Mission Delivery Council will review and consider the findings and recommendations from this assessment. As appropriate, the recommendations will then be integrated into the Annual Operating Plan to improve the quality of operational products and services and enhance the NWS’s public education and awareness materials related to flooding and other tropical cyclone hazards. The ultimate goal of this report is to help the NWS meet its mission to protect life and property and enhance the national economy. August 2017 iv Table of Contents Page 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. NWS Mission .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Purpose of Assessment Report ................................................................................ 1 1.3. Methodology ........................................................................................................... 2 2. Event Summary ................................................................................................................... 3 2.1. Wind Impacts .......................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Heavy Rain & Flooding Impacts ............................................................................ 5 2.2.1. Storm Surge Impacts ................................................................................ 8 3. Findings, Recommendations, and Best Practices ............................................................. 14 3.1. NWS Forecasts, Products, Warnings—Inland Flooding ...................................... 14 3.2. NWS Forecasts, Products and Warnings—National Hurricane Center Products and Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 17 3.3. NWS Forecasts, Products and Warnings—Policy and WFOs and RFCs ............. 20 3.4. IDSS and External Communications Services ...................................................... 22 3.5. IDSS and External Communications—Communication Process ......................... 26 3.6. Facts, Findings, Recommendations, and Best Practices – Staffing ...................... 29 3.7. Facts, Findings, Recommendations, and Best Practices—Technology ................ 31 3.7.1. System Upgrades .................................................................................... 31 3.7.2. Phone and Internet Connection Challenges ............................................ 32 3.7.3. Website Issues ........................................................................................ 33 3.8. Internal Communication, Collaboration & Coordination ..................................... 33 3.9. Pre-Season Training and Education ...................................................................... 36 Appendices Appendix A: Acronyms ...................................................................................................... A-1 Appendix B: Findings, Recommendations and Best Practices ......................................... B-1 Appendix C: Hurricane Matthew Fatalities by State .......................................................... C-1 v List of Figures Page Figure 1: Matthew post-storm analysis of track & intensity (best track). Source: NOAA3 Figure 2: MODIS satellite image from the NASA Terra Satellite showing Hurricane Matthew at 12 pm EDT, October 7, 2016. At the time, Hurricane Matthew was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Source: NASA .............................. 4 Figure 3: Peak wind gusts during Hurricane Matthew. Source: The Weather Channel ...... 5 Figure 4: Precipitation totals for Matthew with black line indicating track of storm center. Source: NOAA ........................................................................................... 6 Figure 5: Annual Exceedance Probabilities for the worst case 24-Hour rainfall for Matthew. Source: NOAA ...................................................................................... 6 Figure 6: Washed out road near Fayetteville, NC. Source: Reuters .................................... 7 Figure 7: USGS graph of gage height or stage at stream gage 02089500 on the Neuse River at Kinston, NC, September 20 to October 20, 2016. Source: USGS .......... 8 Figure 8: Estimated maximum storm surge inundation levels (ft. above ground level) on Atlantic coast due to Hurricane Matthew based on USGS and NWS high water mark observations, NOS tide station observations and USGS storm tide pressure sensors: Source: NHC ............................................................................. 9 Figure 9: NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding map issued October 6, 2016. Source: NOAA .................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 10: NHC Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Product issued on October 6, 2016....................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 11: Low-altitude oblique photos taken before Hurricane Matthew (September 6, 2014) and after (October 13, 2016) showing where the storm cut a new inlet between the Atlantic Ocean and the Matanzas River, stripping away 12-foot dune and carrying sand into the estuary. Source: USGS ..................................... 12 Figure 12: Beach erosion and road damage on Highway A1A left by Hurricane Matthew in Flagler Beach, FL. Source: NBC News ........................................................... 13 Figure 13: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service River Forecast, WFO Raleigh, NC, Friday, October 7, 2016 about 24 hours before heavy rainfall arrived. Source: NOAA ...................................................................................................... 15 Figure 14: Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecast (MMEFS) from SERFC for WFO Raleigh, NC, Thursday, October 6, 2016. Source: NOAA ........................ 16 Figure 15: NHC official forecast graphic, with track included, from 5 am on Wednesday, October 5, 2016. Source: NOAA .................................................... 18 Figure 16: HTI information from WFO Miami, FL, issued via social media on October 5, 2016. Source: NOAA ...................................................................................... 21 Figure 17: SC Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Matthew. Source: WFO Columbia, SC ........................................................................................................ 22 Figure 18: WFO Columbia WCM John Quagliariello speaking in a South Carolina Governor’s press conference on Hurricane Matthew’s expected impacts. Source: South Carolina Emergency Management Division ................................ 24 Figure 19: Example of News Headlines section of NWS web pages. Source: NOAA NWS....................................................................................................................... 27 vi Service Assessment Team The following people participated as members of the Service Assessment Team: Jamie Bielinski Meteorologist in Charge, WFO Charleston, WV Tyra Brown Social Scientist, NWS Miami, FL Mike Cantin Meteorologist in Charge, WFO Boise, ID Arianne Deruise Emergency Management Specialist, FEMA Region 6 Jeff Garmon Meteorologist in Charge, WFO Cheyenne, WY Jeanne Robbins Assistant Director for Data, USGS Raleigh, NC Dennis Staley Chief Operating Officer, NCEP, College Park, MD Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist, West Gulf RFC, Fort Worth, TX Valerie Were Social Scientist, Office of the Chief Economist, CFO, Silver Spring, MD Other valuable contributors: Cindy P. Woods Chief, Operations Division, Silver Spring, MD Douglas C. Young Chief, Performance and Evaluation Branch, Silver Spring, MD Salvatore Romano Evaluation Meteorologist, Performance and Evaluation Branch, Silver Spring, MD Melody Magnus Technical Editor, Analyze, Forecast and Support Office/INNOVIM LLC, Silver Spring, MD vii Executive Summary Hurricane Matthew laid a path of destruction from the Caribbean to the Mid-Atlantic coast of the