HURRICANE MATTHEW DISASTER RECOVERY AND RESILIENCE INITIATIVE ______

A project of the North Carolina Policy Collaboratory

Gavin Smith, PhD, AICP Project Director ______September 11, 2017 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Table of Contents

Introduction ...... 2 A. Background ...... 2 B. Objectives ...... 2 C. Activities ...... 2 D. Organizational Structure ...... 4

Leveraging State and Federal Resources ...... 7

Executive Summaries of Project Reports ...... 8 A. Home Place ...... 8 B. Affordable Housing ...... 13 C. Economic Development ...... 23

Reports/Appendices available upon request...... 25 A. Home Place ...... 26 B. Recovering Affordable Housing in Eastern North Carolina Post-Hurricane Matthew ...... 497 C. Development Finance Initiative Market and Financial Analysis Reports ...... 538

1 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

I. INTRODUCTION This report describes the work that was funded through the North Carolina Policy Collaboratory. The budget for the project totaled $341,000 for the purposes of establishing the Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative. The period of performance for the research began on February 10, 2017 and concluded on June 30, 2017. The North Carolina Policy Collaboratory budget has served as a significant catalyst for other funding and resources that are summarized below. However, the focus of this report is to capture the substantial work done in the Spring and early summer of 2017 as supported by the UNC Policy Collaboratory.

A. Background

The Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative (HMDRRI) involves the university engagement of faculty and students as well as professional planning experts in addressing community and state-level needs associated with recovery from Hurricane Matthew. This North Carolina Policy Collaboratory also provided a way to build upon a number of existing and emerging programs, relationships, and growing interest among faculty and students surrounding the study and practice of creating disaster resilient communities.

This idea for the Initiative was proposed by the Director of North Carolina Division of Emergency Management during a meeting held with the Division on October 19th. In addition, it was suggested that this effort should be codified as part of a formal ongoing partnership between the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management and the UNC system. Since that time three primary objectives were developed and implemented.

B. Objectives The HMDRRI focused efforts around the following objectives:

1) Serve as point of contact for UNC faculty, students and staff to help the state address a range of policy and technical issues as identified. 2) Engage with select communities to assist them identify local needs and help them develop post-disaster recovery plans. 3) Coordinate activities with FEMA’s Community Planning and Capacity Building team which strives to assist communities collect data, assess needs and facilitate recovery planning.

C. Activities

Serve as point of contact for UNC faculty, students and staff to help the state address a range of policy and technical issues as identified.

One way the HMDRRI has assisted in the recovery effort is to serve as a conduit for the linkage of faculty expertise with specific needs identified by the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management. In addition to university faculty, a number of students have participated in the HMDRRI, many of whom are currently enrolled in the University of North Carolina’s Graduate Certificate in Natural Hazards Resilience (http://planning.unc.edu/nhrcp). Most of these student’s master’s projects and dissertations focus on the study of natural hazards and disasters, including some whose focus is on North Carolina communities. As such these efforts will be linked to the HMDRRI and findings provided to the State. This provides another unique

2 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

linkage as students have had the opportunity to present their findings to state and federal officials as their research evolves and garner meaningful practitioner feedback.

Informed by the HMDRRI concept, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University have taught several graduate and undergraduate classes focused on Hurricane Matthew recovery. A primary intent of the classes was to help educate the students participating in HMDRRI, thereby providing a base level of knowledge and experience that would help the larger team meet identified objectives. The three courses and associated faculty that taught the classes include: 1) The Department of City and Regional Planning (DCRP) taught a Planning Workshop (PLAN 823) in which faculty and graduate students work with “clients” as part of a semester-long targeted project. DCRP focused on four communities to include assisting them collect pertinent information that is being used to help them develop disaster recovery plans as part of the larger HMDRRI effort. UNC-CH Department of City and Regional Planning Professor Mai Nguyen and Andrew Whittemore led this class with support provided by Professor Gavin Smith. 2) Andy Fox and David Hill, faculty in the North Carolina State University’s College of Design led a week-long DesignWeek in January focused on working with Kinston, Windsor and Greenville. This effort included Master of Landscape Architecture and Architecture students (to include those enrolled in the NCSU Coastal Dynamics Studio) and UNC-CH Master of City and Regional Planning students (to include those enrolled in the Natural Hazards Resilience Certificate). 3) Natural Hazards Resilience Speaker Series (PLAN 754) was taught in the Spring of 2017 by Dr. Gavin Smith as part of the 10-credit hour Graduate Certificate in Natural Hazards Resilience. The course was designed to expose students to a range of scholars, practitioners, and translational experts in the field and help foster an esprit de corps among those pursuing the Certificate. Invited guest speakers focused on disaster recovery and lectures that were intended to help inform the work of faculty and students involved in the HMDRRI. Engage with select communities to assist them identify local needs and help them develop disaster recovery plans.

A key task undertaken by the HMDRRI includes working with communities identified by the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management and members of the HMDRRI. The Initiative has focused on assisting the following communities: Windsor, Princeville, Fair Bluff, Kinston, Seven Springs, and Lumberton. Following preliminary data collection efforts and briefings from state officials, initial visits were set up to scope out specific tasks. This information has been used to develop a targeted engagement strategy and develop disaster recovery plans in close coordination with public officials and those living in targeted communities.

Specific needs identified by communities included the development of housing relocation strategies. These locally-specific strategies included the development of interview instruments to collect data from those residents pursuing the “buyout” of their homes following Hurricane Matthew. Once acquired, the land is converted to open space. The HMDRRI relocation strategy

3 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

uses this information to assess the characteristics of families to determine the types of replacement housing (e.g., size, cost, local housing styles) that may be needed. The housing plans found in the Home Place document are designed to be used by builders (funded through federal funding) to construct replacement housing. The HMDRRI team is also conducting land suitability analyses, identifying areas for development located outside of the floodplain, but within a community’s extraterritorial jurisdiction in order to reduce future flood losses while helping to maintain the tax base of the six jurisdictions.

Coordinate activities with FEMA’s Community Planning and Capacity Building team.

The HMDDRI actively coordinated with FEMA’s Community Planning and Capacity Building (CPCB) team, to include Matt Campbell, who leads the program in Washington, D.C. Bob Haywood, who is the states designated FEMA representative for Hurricane Matthew and Kehla West CPCB RSF Field Coordinator, North Carolina. This partnership was further solidified on November 3rd as Matt Campbell and two field staff from FEMA served as reviewers of DCRP student projects which evaluated disaster recovery plans (in the PI’s Fall class), and based on this review, suggested that students should present their analysis to his staff in the Hurricane Matthew JFO. The activities of CPCB include data collection and community engagement, two tasks that have been closely coordinated with the faculty and students involved in the development of recovery plans in identified communities. This collaborative relationship is expected to continue through the remainder of time spent with Hurricane Matthew recovery.

D. Organizational Structure

The HMDRRI organizational structure (See Figure 1, next page) illustrates the various interdisciplinary connections and collaborations across institutions that formed the structure of the Initiative. It also highlights how the Collaboratory-funded work has been leveraged with other efforts to significantly expand the scope of HMDRRI and serve as the base upon which a long-term program has been developed to assist the State of North Carolina address Matthew recovery and serve as a model for future disasters in the state. This model is being explored by other universities as a way to assist the State of Texas recover from Hurricane Harvey.

Together, the partnership spans and connects efforts, including the University of North Carolina, North Carolina State University, the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, the Governor’s Office, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), other federal agencies, experienced disaster recovery experts (hired using other funding sources), the private sector firm Skanska, and local communities recovering from Hurricane Matthew.

Fourteen graduate students and two faculty from UNC-CH’s Department of City and Regional Planning as well as eight graduate students plus seven faculty from North Carolina State University’s College of Design assisted the six HMDRRI communities throughout the summer, many working full time on the project. Specific efforts included conducting the housing strategy, undertaking the financial analysis of community downtowns (via UNC’s Development Finance Initiative housed at the School of Government), and assisting with the development of disaster recovery plans.

4 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

The data collected through the Initiative also supported research tied to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate, funded through the UNC Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence. For instance, the DHS-funded Flood Apex program brings together new and emerging technologies designed to increase communities’ resilience to flood disasters and provides flood-predictive analytic tools. Funds from this program are being used to assess the degree to which hazard mitigation and disaster recovery actions taken following Hurricane Floyd in 1999 (the state’s most costly disaster to date) in the 6 HMDRRI communities influenced the impacts and consequences of Hurricane Matthew in 2016. This coordinated effort will apply the Apex-related findings to assist in the development of better disaster recovery plans designed to increase resilience. Additional research underway or under development include assessing the application of Coastal Resilience Center-developed disaster recovery indicators in the 6 HMDRRI communities as well as the assessment of lessons learned spanning infrastructure-related efforts post-Matthew.

Following the completion of the UNC Policy Collaboratory-funded project, HMDRRI has applied for a federal grant that, if funded, will provide up to 12 personnel from AmeriCorps National Civilian Conservation Corps (NCCC) to assist the 6 HMDRRI communities address a range of issues including gutting downtown businesses, cutting greenway trails and creating greenspaces (designed through Collaboratory-funded efforts), building flood memorials, and other tasks as assigned.

5 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

FIGURE 1. HMDRRI Organizational Chart

6 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

II. LEVERAGING STATE AND FEDERAL RESOURCES The Collaboratory funding has been leveraged with funding provided by the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management as well as resources provided by the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of University Programs and the UNC-based Department of Homeland Security’s Coastal Resilience Center of Excellence. This array of funding has allowed the team directly engage with our 6 communities, conduct applied research, whose findings are shared with the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management and HMDRRI communities, and involve students in all aspects of the Initiative. The HMDRRI has also allowed the UNC-led team to develop a North Carolina Resilience Lab to include international partners in Australia and Vietnam.

The Division of Emergency Management has also provided office space for the HMDRRI in the Joint Field Office (JFO) which has been set up in the Research Triangle Park. A JFO, which is typically established following a Presidentially-declared disaster, provides a space for federal and state officials to work together on issues associated with the long-term recovery needs of stricken communities. In large events, the JFO is often maintained for several years. This additional funding is expected to cover the costs of HMDRRI for an additional year.

The ability of UNC and NCSU faculty and students to co-locate in the JFO has provided a unique level of access to state and federal officials and varied types of data that would be difficult to obtain otherwise. The value of these experiences cannot be overstated for both faculty and students as this partnership is very uncommon as most states do not actively engage with the academic community in a systematic manner. Examples of proposed interactions included regular meetings in the JFO with those involved in the recovery effort; the hosting of class lectures in the JFO as appropriate; the hosting of interns paid for through the proposal or other sources of funding; the review and use of post-disaster data in conducting research, developing policy briefs, and teaching; as well as traveling to impacted communities where members of the HMDRRI have been working in partnership with federal, state and local officials, non-profits, quasi-governmental organizations (e.g., Council of Governments), the private sector, and other stakeholders as identified.

In addition to work focused on North Carolina, the HMDRRI served as the first step in the creation of the North Carolina Community Resilience Lab. The Lab concept recognizes that the state is highly vulnerable to a number of natural hazards including coastal storms and flooding, which makes it an ideal environment for research, learning, and the transition of findings to practice. Further, North Carolina, following Hurricane Floyd, was involved in several important initiatives that provide important lessons. These include one of the largest single state acquisition and relocation of flood- prone homes in the nation (more than 5,000 homes) and the elevation of more than 1,000 structures; the creation of state disaster recovery programs meant to compliment federal assistance (some of which are likely to be used again following Matthew); and the creation of the nation’s most advanced floodplain mapping program in the country.

Considering many of the same communities were impacted by Hurricane Matthew, this provides a unique opportunity to comparatively study past and current activities. The North Carolina Division of Emergency Management program, which is widely recognized as a national leader in the field, has welcomed our engagement with them as evidenced by not only their idea of the Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative, but also through prior efforts such as hosting our summer interns, allowing students enrolled in the University of North Carolina’s Graduate

7 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Certificate Program in Natural Hazards Resilience classes to visit their facilities as part of regularly scheduled field trips, and the hiring of our students upon graduation.

This policy rich and hazard-prone area has provided a unique learning environment and as such serves as part of an emerging program designed to foster an international exchange with other nations facing similar challenges. Thus the HMDRRI and the closely aligned Community Resilience Lab serve as a key node in a larger International Learning Laboratory concept that is currently under development. The International Learning Laboratory concept is comprised of partnerships between North Carolina, Vietnam and Australia. The PI’s have established relationships with Vietnamese and Australian and officials which will be leveraged to support the North Carolina-focused Community Resilience Laboratory. In Vietnam, the foreign collaborators are the dean and department head in the School of Architecture of planning at National University of Civil Engineering (NUCE) in Hanoi, Vietnam. Since 1966, NUCE has trained more than 60,000 technical experts, including engineers, architects, and urban planners, in Vietnam. In Australia, the foreign collaborators work at the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Center (BNHCRC), a public not-for-profit and Hawksley Consulting, a private consulting firm. The BNHCRC draws together all of Australia and New Zealand's fire and emergency service authorities, land management agencies, as well as non- government organizations and leading experts across a range of scientific fields to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of natural disasters. The BNHCRC is funded by the Australian Government, as well as partnering agencies, government organizations, and research institutions in Australia and New Zealand. In the summer of 2017, Dr. Gavin Smith the Director of HMDRRI and Collaboratory PI, travelled to Australia to further solidify the partnership with the Natural Hazards and Bushfire Centre, to include the proposed development of a Memorandum of Understanding that codifies this relationship. The MOU is currently under development.

III. EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES OF PROJECT REPORTS Next, we highlight three specific projects funded through the North Carolina Policy Collaboratory. These project reports include: 1) Home Place, 2) Recovering Affordable Housing in Eastern North Carolina Post-Hurricane Matthew: A Strategy Forward, and 3) Development Finance Initiative Market and Financial Analysis Reports. Each full project report (found in the Appendix) is preceded by an executive summery which summarizes the extensive work done by members of the research and community engagement team, comprised of faculty, practitioners and students.

A. Executive Summary: Home Place

Summary of the Research

In an effort to support innovative, resilient planning and design strategies for hazard prone communities in North Carolina, the Home Place project was created to build capacity, extend the reach, and transfer knowledge of existing and novel processes, research, and best practices related to resilient planning and design strategies, tools, policies, and procedures.

The overarching goal of the project is to assist in the development of design strategies that support the long-term function, health, and vitality of communities located in historically flood- prone North Carolina communities. Home Place offers design and planning recommendations for neighborhood and housing (re)construction activities associated with post-Matthew

8 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

recovery efforts and is a component of the ongoing Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative (HMDRRI). The project team has incorporated into Home Place, hazard- related issues facing this region, including the potential impacts of flooding, development patterns, and population trends. Home Place is a design-guide meant to spark and inform conversation around crucial themes for resilient redevelopment in affected communities, within and between government agencies, and by other involved parties like non-profit aid and planning entities. Guidance focuses architectural and landscape architectural approaches to development, conservation, and management practices and uses, with an emphasis on assessing options and providing recommendations tied to infill development in existing neighborhoods as well as options and recommendations tied to new neighborhoods and developments. Design recommendations in Home Place reflect current codes and standards in the six communities and include suggested changes needed to meet proposed design options and recommendations.

The Home Place document offers design recommendations that address a variety of spatial and temporal scales of recovery, including aspects of community-wide infrastructures (transportation, energy, water, etc.), planning, site, and building patterns/typologies. This first version of Home Place focuses on recommendations that are applicable to all six HMDRRI communities: Fair Bluff, Kinston, Lumberton, Princeville, Seven Springs, and Windsor. In total, we believe the elements undertaken through this effort will assist post-Matthew rebuilding efforts by promoting design best practices centered on long-term community function, health, resilience, culture, and vitality.

Findings and Recommendations

The Home Place project is a process document designed to add clarity to the recovery process through the application of relevant design practices. Although it can be expected that there are tangible outcomes from the application of Home Place, the intent of the guide does not offer concrete findings or recommendations. What Home Place has offered is a framework for understanding the pieces of resilient recovery and a window into what it could look like in each of the six HDMRRI communities. Home Place guide approaches resilient redevelopment at three scales within the affected communities:

a) Community patterns, including but not limited to connectivity to existing resources, access to daily needs, and density. b) Neighborhood patterns, including but not limited to mixed-income housing types, multi- modal transportation networks, and open space. c) Housing patterns, including but not limited to elements of structural typologies, scale, proportion, vernacular, and materiality. These three categories help to address a specific set of physio-geographic issues that commonly afflict disaster stricken areas.

a) “Checkerboard” patterns of abandoned, FEMA-acquired, and/or publicly owned parcels; b) Identifying large-scale buyout areas (existing and potential future); and c) Performing useful land suitability analysis of proposed sending areas for communities (towns/neighborhoods) seeking relocation.

9 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

By characterizing recovery at multiple scales, Home Place becomes a valuable guide for individual survivors, community leaders and state and federal response to disaster. Beyond a set of ‘things to be done’ the Home Place project empowers local, ground-up understanding and action to create well-construed, long-lasting recovery.

Current Impacts

Even though the Home Place guide has just been released to our 6 communities and is soon-to- be posted on a variety of information dissemination venues, there are already some specific applications of the document. The Town of Princeville hosted a 5-day design charrette (led by HMDRRI) in August 2017 to engage the public in the process of developing design-based policy options for a 52-acre site to be developed adjacent to the Town, but located outside the floodplain. The Home Place guide was an important resource for the participants at the charrette as they imagined the complexities and possibilities around moving a large portion of their community out of high-hazard areas. This included visualizing elevation vs relocation of housing, streetscape elements characteristic of their community, and tools for improving connectivity and livability at a community-scale.

The housing section of the Home Place guide has attracted the attention of the American Institute for Architects in North Carolina (AIANC) who plan to build upon the housing designs in the guide as they develop a more robust offering of home types and functions for communities recovering across Eastern North Carolina. Use of Home Place as a jumping-off point for further, focused action like that plan by AIANC serves one of the primary intended outcomes of the guide.

The Home Place guide offers custom conceptual designs for each of the six communities and these designs illustrate principals of community structure that support connectivity and cohesion throughout a structural transition away from flood prone areas. Home Place community design concepts address the changing interface between the built and natural environments and were created to local governments successfully plan and implement land-use changes resulting from recovery.

Collaboration and Engagement

A successful guide to recovery must effectively synthesize the existing recovery response framework and current recovery context. Despite the short window for development, the Home Place project was able to have meaningful engagement with many of the important players in Hurricane Matthew recovery. Throughout the creation of the Home Place document state, federal and local officials weighed in on the themes and content that informed the guide. With a finished draft in hand, HMDRRI can now use Home Place as a piece in a larger effort to improve resiliency and clarity in the recovery process for future disasters. Collaborations during the development of Home Place include:

• North Carolina Emergency Management at State and County levels • Federal Emergency Management Agency officials • Local and county officials in five of six HDMRRI communities • Survivors and residents in all five of six HDMRRI communities

10 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

• UNC Development Finance Initiative representatives • UNC Coastal Resilience Center staff

In addition to professional collaborations, the Home Place team participated in community engagement events in Fair Bluff and Princeville as well as site visits with specific community representatives in all 6 of the communities except Windsor. The discourse and field observation were critical steps in crafting a document that resonates with the diverse audience.

Continuation

The Home Place project represents a first step in the larger scope and effort by HDMRRI to support resilient recovery from Hurricane Matthew. HDMRRI is now working with NC State College of Design faculty to explore next steps and future resources with the intention of bringing the conceptual framework laid out in Home Place into communities and ultimately synthesizing public and professional inputs into a more detailed set of design work that can be directly employed by communities, counties and the state in recovery implementation activities.

At NC State College of Design, the Home Place project has inspired action within the Department of Landscape Architecture. The Fall 2017 Design Development Studio is to be taught by Home Place team members and will dedicate the entire semester to envisioning and illustrating full landscape design packages for the riverfront portion of downtown Fair Bluff. This studio work will offer 15+ design iterations from concept through construction documentation that the Town of Fair Bluff can use to inspire and visualize the powerful potential of their town- center.

Efforts by HDMRRI and the Home Place project have led to a second studio effort in the College of Design. The Spring 2018 Coastal Dynamics Studio is now planning to develop an interdisciplinary effort between the School of Architecture and the Department of Landscape Architecture focused on downtown redevelopment design in one or more of the HDMRRI communities. This integrative studio will support ongoing work at HDMRRI in downtown flood retrofitting, greenspace design, and land-use planning by offering graphic illustrations of conceptual designs that reflect local needs and the outcomes from the ongoing public engagement in the six communities.

HOME PLACE TEAM

Andrew Fox, ASLA, PLA, Associate Professor and University Faculty Scholar, Department of Landscape Architecture, NC State College of Design

Celen Pasalar, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Landscape Architecture and Assistant Dean for Research and Extension, NC State College of Design

Charles A. Flink, FASLA, PLA, Senior Advisor at ALTA Planning

David Hill, AIA, Associate Professor, University Faculty Scholar, and Interim Head, School of Architecture, NC State College of Design 11 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Kofi Boone, ASLA, Associate Professor and University Faculty Scholar, Department of Landscape Architecture, NC State College of Design

Robby Layton, Ph.D., FASLA, PLA, CPRP, Principal at Design Concepts

Tania Allen, Assistant Professor, Department of Art & Design, NC State College of Design

NCSU Students

Adam Walters, Master of Landscape Architecture Candidate, NC State College of Design

Danielle Chelles, Master of Graphic Design Candidate, NC State College of Design

Ezgi Balkanay, Doctorate in Design Candidate, NC State College of Design

James Poplin, Master of Architecture Candidate, NC State College of Design

Lindsey Naylor, Master of Landscape Architecture Candidate, NC State College of Design

Sharna Chowdhury, Master of Landscape Architecture Candidate, NC State College of Design

Stephanie Heimstead, Master of Landscape Architecture Candidate, NC State College of Design

Yu Chun Chiu, Master of Landscape Architecture, NC State College of Design

12 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

B. Executive Summary: Recovering Affordable Housing in Eastern North Carolina Post-Hurricane Matthew: A Strategy Forward

Overview

The Coastal Plain region of North Carolina has some of the most extreme housing conditions in the state, as measured by unaffordability and overcrowding. This is particularly the case in rural census tracts located in this region (UNC Center for Urban and Regional Studies, 2017). The Coastal Plain region also suffered the most damage during Hurricane Matthew in October of 2016. Displacement of families from their homes after the hurricane has further exacerbated the unavailability of quality, affordable housing. Leaders in the State have expressed the importance of affordable housing development as a central aspect of the disaster recovery efforts. HMDRRI’s Affordable Housing Strategy for Eastern North Carolina will offer guidance to the state and its stakeholders on how to work with private and non-profit sectors to build high quality, affordable housing in the Coastal Plain region.

Summary of Research

Our team has conducted the following three tasks:

1) Developed an analysis of pre-storm supply and demand of affordable housing in the 45 Matthew-impacted counties using data from: 2005-2009 American Community Survey and 2010-2015 American Community Survey. 2) Projected housing demand in Cumberland, Edgecombe, Wayne, and Robeson using data on demographic, housing, and industry projections up to the year 2022 using data comes from ESRI Business Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statics, the US American Community Survey, PolicyMap, and other various residential real estate search engines/ listing websites. 3) Analyzed the barriers to financing and constructing affordable housing in Eastern North Carolina by conducting semi-structured interviews with 23 key stakeholders and site visits to affected communities. For a list of interviewees, see Appendix A. We also examined published reports, newspaper articles, and website content.

Key Findings by Tasks

Task 1: Findings for Supply and Demand of Affordable Housing Eastern North Carolina

a) The shortage of affordable housing was a problem in Eastern North Carolina prior to Hurricane Matthew, but the storm exacerbated the problem. Disaster recovery planning, funding, and implementation provides an unusual opportunity to develop holistic strategies to advance goals related to housing affordability in the region. b) The causes and effects of housing unaffordability differ spatially across Eastern North Carolina, as demonstrated through our mapping work. i. The data suggest that in some rural parts of Eastern North Carolina, spatial concentration of community distress is occurring due to: 1) poor economic opportunities, 2) high numbers of cost-burdened families and depressed local housing markets, and 3) severe housing damage from Hurricane Matthew.

13 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

ii. High poverty, high unemployment, and low median incomes make it difficult for households to spend less than 30 percent of their income on housing, which is the standard measure of housing affordability. In areas experiencing these conditions, both the population and housing stock is shrinking, suggesting that disrepair and abandonment are likely to occur in these areas. c) In other parts of the region, populations are shrinking while housing units are increasing, suggesting a mismatch between housing needs and current housing availability. This mismatch could be related to housing type, size, cost, or location. d) Finally, there are some counties where growth is occurring: Wake, Chatham, New Hanover, and generally more coastal counties. In these areas, populations and housing markets are growing, but other indicators, such as increased poverty and stagnant income suggest rising inequality. In these places, housing costs are increasing, thereby making housing less affordable for low-income households or households with stagnant or declining incomes. While these housing markets may be attractive to private developers, subsidies may be required for developers to build affordable housing rather than market-rate housing.

Task 2: Housing Market Analysis

The housing market analysis provides information that influences the decisions of private market actors, namely developers of residential housing. Composed of key local economic indicators, this analysis provides estimates of projected supply and demand for housing up to the year 2022 in the four counties most heavily affected by Hurricane Matthew: Edgecombe, Cumberland, Robeson, and Wayne. It also seeks to identify the state of these four economies before they were impacted by Hurricane Matthew.

a) When looking at the projected change in demographics for all four counties, we see that Cumberland has the healthiest economy. It is projected to grow the most by median income, renter and owner households, and population. Edgecombe is projected to grow the least and/or decline over the same period of time, see Table 1 in Appendix B. b) Our analysis also included a retail analysis gap to examine commercial and industry trends that are indicative of consumer spending patterns within each county. A negative retail gap number reveals that there is surplus of spending in the county while a positive number reveals that there is leakage. A surplus indicates that people from outside the county come to the county to shop, while leakage indicates that residents are leaving the county to purchase goods elsewhere. Cumberland has a retail surplus of over $212 million, indicating that the county attracts substantial retail spending from individuals living in other counties. Conversely, Edgecombe, Robeson, and Wayne have significant retail leakages. Edgecombe has the largest retail leakage, over $104 million. Robeson and Wayne have retail leakages of $60 million and $43 million respectively. c) Accommodation and Food services, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, and Health Care and Social Assistance are the largest direct employers in each of the four counties as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (figures do not include agriculture). Projected annual wages are highest for Manufacturing ($48,718) and Health Care and Social Assistance ($42,162) jobs and much lower for Retail Trade ($27,707) and Accommodation and Food Services ($15,075), see Table 3 in Appendix B. Jobs in

14 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Manufacturing and Health Care and Social Assistance, on average, provide salaries well above the wages required to afford the median rent in each of the counties. Places with more jobs in these industries may be able to attract private sector developers to build market-rate housing. In contrast, places with more Retail Trade and Accommodations and Food Services jobs may require more subsidized housing and may want to consider diversifying their local economy by attracting industries that pay a higher wage. d) Robeson and Cumberland have experienced different trends in job gains and losses from 2011 through 2016. While Robeson has gained the most Manufacturing jobs, it lost jobs in the Health Care and Social Assistance field. The opposite is true of Cumberland. See Table 4, Appendix B. e) Cumberland, the county with the highest median income ($45,768), is projected to have the lowest ratio of supply to demand of subsidized affordable housing. A low ratio indicates that there is a high demand but low supply of subsidized affordable housing while a high ratio means that the county is meeting a greater demand for subsidized housing. Robeson has the highest rate of supply to demand, followed by Edgecombe. See Table 5, Appendix B. f) Before the storm, the four counties differed in their economic conditions and in their respective needs for affordable housing. Cumberland and Wayne counties had the healthiest economies; both were expected to experience income, housing, and population growth. Robeson’s median income had been expected to grow almost as much as Cumberland and Wayne; however, its population growth and owner-occupied housing growth lagged behind the two counties Edgecombe’s economy appears to have been the most challenged. While income was expected to grow marginally, population and housing were not. Hurricane Matthew is may have depressed the projections in all four counties, although the counties’ overall economic conditions are unlikely to be drastically changed by storm impact and recovery.

Task 3: The Barriers to Resilient Affordable Housing

We identified barriers to funding and building more resilient affordable housing through our quantitative data analysis of secondary data and interviews with key stakeholders and this research revealed the following barriers.

a) A need for affordable housing at all income levels and some special populations i. Single-family housing that is resilient to storms and energy efficient for in a range of affordability levels (at 30%, 50%, 80%, 100%, and 120% AMI) ii. Multi-family rental housing in a range of affordability (at 30%, 50%, 80%, 100%, and 120% AMI) iii. Multi-family housing is particularly needed for young professionals (e.g. teachers) iv. Housing to accommodate aging and disabled populations v. New neighborhoods with affordable housing that fits a rural lifestyle, such as rental housing with more space between homes for a garden

15 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

b) Current stock of affordable housing has limitations i. Affordable housing, such as mobile and modular homes, which are abundant in Eastern North Carolina, are not resilient ii. Modular homes are frequently placed on slab foundations with septic systems, making them more susceptible to flood damage iii. Mobile and modular homes have higher loan interest rates and do not provide the wealth building opportunities of stick-built homes iv. Older housing stock that is affordable may be energy inefficient and thus more costly due to higher utility costs to heat and cool. c) A lack of capital for affordable housing i. There is a need for more liberal (but safe) lending practices to increase access to capital for both low and moderate income homebuyers, Community Development Corporations (CDCs), and others interested in developing or rehabbing affordable housing ii. Low Income Tax Credit Housing is the primary funding vehicle for the creation of affordable multi-family housing, but funding is limited and few developers are experienced in using this program. iii. Poor availability of CDBG funds to be used for housing in recent years has had a significant impact on development of affordable housing. d) Limited capacity i. Loss of CDBG and other state funding to support administrative capacities at CDCs, other non-profit affordable housing developers, and governmental agencies has resulted in a reduction in new affordable housing. These organizations are unable to fund, attract, and retain staff with the experience to conduct market analyses and to manage housing development and rehabilitation projects. ii. There is an insufficient qualified labor to meet the demand for post-disaster housing construction/rehabilitation and to conduct title searches. e) Historical patterns of segregation and poverty i. Widening disparities in income, education, and health across racial and ethnic groups create greater challenges to improve economic and housing for some groups ii. The loss of jobs, particularly in manufacturing, in the region has resulted in the out migration of younger, healthier, and more highly educated individuals iii. Households with Housing Choice Vouchers (HCVs) are not always able to rent homes that will meet HUD housing quality standards thereby concentrating these families in lower quality housing and neighborhoods

16 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Affordable Housing Strategies & Recommendations

Based on our analysis, we offer the following strategies and recommendations to advance affordable housing goals in Eastern North Carolina.

A. The Governor’s Office should form a standing committee to recommend policy, programmatic, and funding strategies to encourage development of affordable housing in Eastern North Carolina. 1. This committee should include statewide housing experts, development professionals, disaster recovery officials, and economic development planners and facilitators. Key stakeholders to include are: NC Housing Finance Agency, NC Emergency Management, Commerce’s Rural Development Division, the NC Community Development Initiative, the NC Housing Coalition, key CDCs with expertise in housing development in eastern North Carolina, community college business development officials, private developers active in the Eastern North Carolina housing market, two state legislators from each chamber, elected officials from a diversity of cities and towns, policy officials within the administration, and academic experts. 2. Funding is required for a staff person half-time or greater to staff the committee. 3. The role of the committee is to develop holistic recommendations for expanding affordability in Eastern North Carolina, including strategies likely to catalyze economic development that will raise incomes and quality of life. These recommendations should take into account recovery funding but should also address opportunities created by long-term federal, state, local, philanthropic, and private sector funding. The committee should draft policies and practices that would address housing needs in the region. 4. The committee should generate recommendations for both the executive and legislative branch within six months of being formed, and present semi-annual updates to the governor. B. Promote housing development in geographies of opportunities 1. In areas with shrinking populations, preserve and maintain housing that is affordable and appropriate to the demography of the area 2. Encourage new models for financing affordable housing construction in markets that are failing to provide private sector housing 3. In areas with stronger housing market, encourage the development of modes market-rate homes that are affordable to moderate-income households 4. Promote LIHTC or other subsidized development in areas with high potential for follow-on investment, without disturbing the general geographic equity that the Qualified Allocation Plan provides, which includes areas near medical and educational institutions, as well as economic development initiatives or other private investments

17 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

5. Consider land banking in areas where many landlords have deferred maintenance for their properties, particularly those landlords with rental properties damaged by the storm that are yet to be rehabilitated 6. Recognize and proactively address the effects of institutional racism in this region and the effects on housing disparities 7. Consider passage of non-discrimination laws that support use of Housing Choice Vouchers in “opportunity neighborhoods” C. Align policy and programming to meet the housing development challenges in Eastern North Carolina 1. Use a mix of local and state subsidy models to build single family and multi- family housing that is affordable (no more than 30% of income including utility costs and taxes) at a range of income levels (30%, 50%, 80%, 100%, and 120% of AMI). 2. Restore previous funding levels for the Community Development Initiative and other agencies that distribute working capital to local non-profit housing developers 3. Restore previous funding levels to the Housing Trust Fund to increase rehabilitation programs that prevent the decline of older homes that are currently affordable 4. Structure funding and development opportunities to benefit other populations, not only seniors and the very low income 5. Make capital more readily available and easier to obtain without increasing the risk of foreclosure 6. The state should lobby the federal government for policy changes advantageous to solving economic and housing problems in Eastern North Carolina, such as restoring funding for the USDA Rural Housing program to previous levels D. Include economic development as part of affordable housing strategies in Eastern North Carolina 1. Seek to stabilize housing decline and cost burdens generated by very low incomes through expanding industries and economic opportunity in Eastern North Carolina 2. Include economic development professionals in housing committees and vice versa 3. Expand funding for programs already generating entrepreneurship and workforce development in Eastern North Carolina, such as in the community college system 4. Housing recovery efforts can be one mechanism for economic development if residents can be trained in housing construction, repair, and rehabilitation; disaster mitigation; and searching titles. 5. Homeownership programs should be funded and expanded to allow households with low incomes or limited/poor credit greater access to homeownership,

18 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

especially in the non-subsidized affordable housing market to allow households to gain equity in their homes 6. Engage major private employers in a regional marketing campaign to demonstrate the value to employers of contributing to local vitality. This can occur through encouraging employees to live in the area as well as general placemaking that promotes further economic development/investment and enhances quality of life 7. Invest in development projects that have the potential to be catalytic drivers of economic development for communities. Engage the Development Finance Initiative in the School of Government to identify and analyze financial feasibility of development project. E. Build civic capacity in Eastern North Carolina to champion and implement affordable housing programs 1. Use COGs to distribute training to elected officials on rural housing and economic development leadership and programs. Some additional training to COGs may be necessary to do so. 2. Invest in leadership development among younger generations in eastern North Carolina. For example, establish a leadership academy for young adults who are interested in running for local office. 3. As mentioned earlier, state funding should be restored for those statewide organizations that had helped provide operating capital to community development corporations. If this is not restored soon, institutional memory and skills may be lost. 4. The state should publicly recognize successful partnerships and collaborations that result in realized solutions to housing problems in eastern North Carolina 5. Utilize successful builders and lessons learned from Hurricane Floyd to guide Matthew housing recovery F. Make homes more resilient to flooding and extreme weather 1. Use the Home Place design recommendations from NC State’s College of Design 2. Remove or rehabilitate dilapidated/poor quality housing that pose a danger to public health and safety and reduces home values. 3. Supplement funding for the HMGP program so that more homes can be relocated, elevated, or rebuilt more resiliently

19 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Appendix A: List of Interviewees

1. Paul D’Angelo, Affordable Housing Specialist at Tribute Companies, Inc. and Chair of Cape Fear Housing Coalition 2. Erika Brandt, Support Analyst, NC Housing Finance Administration 3. Tina Dawson, Child Protective Services Program Manager, Robeson County Dept. of Social Services 4. Joyce Dickens, Executive Director, Affordable Housing Director, Rocky Mount Edgecombe Community Development Corporation 5. Al Foote, Adult Services Coordinator, Cumberland County Dept. of Social Services 6. Riley Foster, Intern, NC Community Development Initiative 7. Dawn Gavasci, Adoption and Foster Care Program Manager, Robeson County Dept. of Social Services 8. Gary Hooker, Intern, NC Housing Finance Administration 9. Andrea Harris, Senior Fellow, Self-Help Credit Union 10. Kevin Harris, Affordable Housing Director, Rocky Mount Edgecombe Community Development Corporation 11. LeMarc Harris, Director, Pembroke Public Housing Agency 12. Lea Henry, Community Development Manager, Upper Coastal Plain Council of Governments 13. Will Parry-Hill, Manager of Government and Industry Relations, NC Housing Finance Administration 14. Wayne Horne, Lumberton City Manager, City of Lumberton City 15. William Kenney, North Carolina Director of Single Family Housing, US Department of Agriculture 16. D. Faye Lewis, Rural Planning Organization Technician, Mid-Carolina Council of Governments 17. Brandon Love, Planning Director, City of Lumberton 18. Adrian Lowry, Director, Lumberton Public Housing Agency 19. Jan Maynor, Executive Director, Lumber River Council of Governments 20. Terry Pate, Owner, Terry Pate Realty 21. Charlotte Steward, Policy and Program Analyst, NC Housing Finance Administration 22. Emila Sutton, Senior Policy and Program Analyst, NC Housing Finance Administration 23. Sonyia Tuner, Intern, NC Community Development Initiative 24. Roy Worrells, Housing Director, Choanoke Area Development Association

20 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Appendix B: Market Analysis Tables

Table 1. Projected Percent Change in Demographics through 2022

Robeson Cumberland Wayne Edgecombe (%) (%) (%) (%) Median Income 7 9 9 3

Renter Households 2 3 3 -4

Owner Households 1 3 2 -5

Population 1 3 2 -4

Table 2. Retail Gap Analysis

Robeson Cumberland Wayne Edgecombe

Retail Gap $60,041,329 $(212,717,420) $43,405,529 $104,930,277

Leakage Surplus Leakage Leakage

Table 3. 2022 Projected Major Industry Average Wage and Affordable Rent (Assumed to track with 2 percent inflation)

Projected 2022 Affordable Rent at Annual State 30% of the Average Wage average wage

Accommodation and food services $15,075 $376.87

Retail trade $27,707 $693

Manufacturing $48,718 $1,218

Health care and social assistance $42,162 $1,054

21 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Table 4. Five-year Percent Change in Major Industries, 2011-2016

Robeson Cumberland Wayne Edgecombe (%) (%) (%) (%) Accommodation and food services 16 12 12 18

Retail trade 1 11 14 5

Manufacturing 11 -11 8 5

Health care and social assistance -5 8 3 0

Table 5. Affordable Housing Demand

Robeson Cumberland Wayne Edgecombe

Market Rental Assumption $441 $752 $791 $580

Non-burdened Household Income $17,621 $30,075 $31,621 $23,186

Estimated number of Burdened Households based on Market Rent 11,114 31,980 13,739 7,034 Assumption

Total Units Supplied 3,121 4,527 2,733 1,676

Unmet need 7,993 27,453 11,006 5,358

Supply / Demand Ratio 28% 14% 20% 24%

22 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

AFFORDABLE HOUSING TEAM

Mai Thi Nguyen, Associate Professor, UNC Department of City and Regional Planning

UNC Students

Samantha Farley, Undergraduate student, UNC School of Public Health

Kirstin Frescoln, PhD student, UNC Department of City and Regional Planning

Amanda Martin, PhD student, UNC Department of City and Regional Planning

Jonathan Peterson, Master’s Student, UNC Department of City and Regional Planning

C. Development Finance Initiative Market and Financial Analysis Reports

Overview

The following executive summary examines pre- and post-Matthew local market conditions and presents a financial analysis of the reconstruction of downtown Fair Bluff, Seven Springs and Windsor, North Carolina either through relocation or rehabilitation and retrofit. This document is meant to guide local officials through key decisions regarding the revitalization of their downtowns post-disaster.

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Government established Development Finance Institute (DFI) in 2011 to assist North Carolina communities with achieving their community economic development goals. DFI partners with communities in North Carolina to attract private investment for transformative projects by providing specialized finance and real estate development expertise. DFI works with local governments and their partners on projects including: downtown revitalization, public-private partnerships, adaptive building reuse, tax credit financing, district designation, and neighborhood redevelopment.

DFI services support implementation of local community and economic development priorities that require private investment. DFI can be considered an extension of an organization’s planning, development services, economic, and community development departments.

Summary of the research

In May of 2017, the Hurricane Matthew Disaster Relief and Recovery Initiative (HMDRRI) engaged DFI to provide its development and finance services to three communities recovering from Hurricane Matthew: Fair Bluff, Seven Springs, and Windsor.

The reports for the towns examine pre- and post-Matthew local market conditions; compile commercial recovery lessons from around the country; and present financial analyses of commercial redevelopment options for each downtown.

23 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

Findings and recommendations

In each town, DFI assessed two broad policy options including flood retrofitting the downtown or its relocation outside of the floodplain. For each town a comparison of estimated costs were assembled. The research conducted by DFI was intended to help local government officials set goals for commercial downtown recovery. Based on pre-market conditions and historic trends, the research informs local government officials of potential strategies for resilient downtown recovery and redevelopment. Further, it provides the cost of executing each strategy and guidance, whenever possible, and on structuring public participation in order to attract private investment.

Collaboration or Engagement

DFI held discussions with local government officials to define the public interests around which redevelopment strategies developed. If the local government entities are interested in pursuing a commercial redevelopment program for their downtowns, DFI can provide further assistance.

Continuation

DFI recommends that the Town of Fair Bluff, Seven Springs and Windsor use this report to guide decisions about how it would like to participate in the stabilization and recovery of downtown. This report has identified two projects (relocation and rehabilitation) that require significant government participation. DFI can provide additional guidance regarding each option, including site suitability analysis and development of an acquisition strategy.

HMDRRI will be conducting a series of Flood Retrofit Workshops in Fair Bluff, Seven Springs and Windsor in partnership with the Association of Floodplain Manager’s (ASFPM) Flood Retrofit subcommittee in September and October of 2017. Members of ASFPM’s Flood Retrofit Committee have volunteered their time to conduct flood retrofit audits in the three communities while the North Carolina Rural Center has agreed to cover the cost of their air fare and lodging. The building-by-building assessment will identify varied flood retrofit techniques and their associated costs. The cost figures will be used by DFI to further assess the viability of downtown revitalization strategies.

Conclusions and Thoughts

The UNC Policy Collaboratory provided funding to start the Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative, an innovative university-state partnership born out of a conversation with the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management following Hurricane Matthew. Since its inception, the state has asked us to document the process and create a set of standard operating procedures to be used in future events. As we continue our work, supported by the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management and the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of University Programs, other states and nations have shown interest. Most recently, the State of Texas and Rice University have asked us to describe our work to them and how it might be used following Hurricane Harvey. At the international level, Australia and Vietnam have agreed to work with us to share policy lessons, conduct joint research, and explore a student, faculty, and practitioner exchange program. In the examples summarized here, the UNC Policy Collaboratory provided the initial funding that allowed a

24 Progress Report Hurricane Matthew Disaster Recovery and Resilience Initiative

unique team of UNC and North Carolina State University faculty and students to engage in a sustained effort to assist communities throughout eastern North Carolina recover from Hurricane Matthew.

UNC Faculty

Sarah Odio, Project Manager, Development Finance Initiative, UNC School of Government

Students

Kaley Huston, Masters Candidate, UNC Department of City and Regional Planning

IV. Reports/Appendices Complete reports, including: 1) Home Place, 2) Recovering Affordable Housing in Eastern North Carolina Post-Hurricane Matthew: A Strategy Forward, and 3) Development Finance Initiative Market and Financial Analysis Reports are located in the following appendices.

25