Storm Tide Simulations for Hurricane Hugo (1989): on the Significance of Including Inland Flooding Areas

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Storm Tide Simulations for Hurricane Hugo (1989): on the Significance of Including Inland Flooding Areas STORM TIDE SIMULATIONS FOR HURRICANE HUGO (1989): ON THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INCLUDING INLAND FLOODING AREAS by DANIEL DIETSCHE B.S. Basle Institute of Technology, Switzerland, 1993 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in the College of Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Summer Term 2004 ABSTRACT In this study, storm tides are simulated by performing a hindcast of water surface levels produced by Hurricane Hugo (1989). The region of interest incorporates inundation areas between Charleston and Shallotte Inlet (120 miles northeast of Charleston) and includes Bulls Bay where the highest storm surge of about 20 feet occurred. The study domain also contains an important riverine system which is connected to the Winyah Bay: the Waccamaw River up to Conway including all pertinent tributaries (Sampit River, Black River, and Pee Dee River), and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) within the Grand Strand (Myrtle Beach). Five different two-dimensional finite element models with triangular elements are applied in order to simulate the storm tides, allow for inundation, and provide a basis of comparison to assess the significance of including inundation areas and two extents of spatial discretization. Four computational regions comprise a semicircular mesh encompassing the South Carolina coast including all relevant estuaries and bays as well as the continental shelf. Two of these four computational regions include inland topography allowing the model to simulate inland flooding. One of the floodplain meshes is then incorporated into the Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) model domain to produce a fifth computational region. ii The computation of the water surface elevations is obtained from the long-wave hydrodynamic ADCIRC-2DDI numerical code, which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations. The code is driven by wind field information (wind velocities and atmospheric pressure) and by astronomical tide forcings at the open ocean boundaries. Short wave action (wave set-up and run-up) is not described by the code. The primary focus of the study is the computation of two boundary conditions at Winyah Bay inlet and Nixon’s Crossroad on behalf of the National Weather Service’s Southeast River Forecast Center. Furthermore, the finite element meshes with and without inland topography exhibit whether incorporating inundation areas significantly improves the accuracy of the computed water elevations along the shorelines. A secondary product of this research is the assessment of near-inlet boundary locations with respect to forcings from storm surge hydrographs and astronomical tidal signals. Assessments between historical data and the simulated storm tides based on the various model domains are presented. The simulated results show good consensus with historical data along the South Carolina coast. While the results show that including inland topography significantly influences the accuracy of the computed water elevations, it was determined that a limited extent with a coarse mesh resolution is sufficient. The boundary condition assessment indicates that storm tide hydrographs are very spatially dependent near inlets, whereas astronomical tides have minimal variance. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my appreciation to those people whose assistance and guidance helped me to finalize this research. First, I would like to thank Dr. Scott C. Hagen for his exceptional support, advise, and guidance on this project as well as the many beneficial and pleasant conversations I had with him during my stay at the University of Central Florida. I also would like to thank Dr. Gour-Tsyh Yeh and Dr. Manoj B. Chopra for agreeing to serve on my committee; Andrew T. Cox of Oceanweather Inc., for providing the wind field information; Yuji Funakoshi for his help on the mesh generation software SMS and his excellent support by developing some of the meshes used in this thesis; Mike Salisbury for his assistance with the Hydrology labs and updating the FORTRAN codes; and many thanks to the other lads in the lab: Peter Bacopoulos, Satoshi Kojima, and former colleague Ryan Murray. Last but not least, I am very thankful to the members of the Southeast River Forecast Center in Peachtree, Atlanta: Reggina Garza, Wylie Quillian, Jamie Dyer, and John Feldt for their help in collecting data and providing vital information for the success of this project. This study is funded in part from University Cooperation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Subward No. UCAR S01-32794 pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award No. NA97WD0082 to the University of Central Florida. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA, its sub-agencies, or UCAR. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES ix ABBREVIATIONS xiii CONVERSION FACTORS xv CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Hurricane Impacts 1 1.2 Hurricane Hugo (1989) 3 1.2.1 The History of the Storm 6 1.2.2 Reported High Water Marks 8 1.3 Research Objective 9 CHAPTER 2. TROPICAL CYCLONES 12 2.1 Hurricane Origin 12 2.2 Hurricane Environment 14 2.3 Hurricane Development 18 2.4 Hurricane Classification 23 2.5 Hurricane Movement 23 2.6 Hurricane Weather 24 2.7 Hurricane Winds 25 2.8 Hurricane Land Impacts 26 2.8.1 Winds 27 2.8.2 Rainfall 27 2.8.3 Tornadoes 28 2.9 Hurricane Decay 28 2.10 Hurricane Modification 29 2.11 Hurricane Surveillance and Tracking 32 v 2.11.1 Aircraft Reconnaissance 33 2.11.2 Satellite Remote Sensing 34 2.12 Hurricane Prediction Models 35 CHAPTER 3. LITERATURE REVIEW 37 3.1 Pressure Surge, Long Wave, and Short Wave Processes 37 3.2 Short-wave Generation 41 3.3 Predicting Storm Surge 43 3.3.1 SLOSH Features 45 CHAPTER 4. NUMERICAL MODEL DOCUMENTATION 47 4.1 Tropical Wind Model 48 4.2 Meteorological Forcing Transformation into ADCIRC 53 4.3 Coastal Ocean Circulation Model 54 CHAPTER 5. DESCRIPTION OF STUDY AREA 60 5.1 Riverine System 61 5.1.1 Waccamaw River 61 5.1.2 Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway 62 5.1.3 Pee Dee River and Black River 63 5.2 Estuarine System 64 5.2.1 Winyah Bay 65 5.2.2 Bulls Bay 66 5.2.3 Charleston Harbor 67 CHAPTER 6. DEVELOPMENT OF THE FINITE ELEMENT MESHES 69 6.1 The open-ocean Boundary Placement 70 6.2 South Carolina Study Domain 72 6.2.1 SC-1 76 6.2.2 SC-1-FP 77 6.2.3 SC-2 80 6.2.4 SC-2-FP 83 6.2.5 Comparison South Carolina Meshes 91 vi 6.3 Western North Atlantic Tidal Domain 93 CHAPTER 7. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PERFORMANCE 99 7.1 Computational Model Parameters 99 7.1.1 South Carolina Domain 99 7.1.2 Western North Atlantic Tidal model domain 100 7.2 Computational Performance 102 CHAPTER 8. SIMULATION RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 104 8.1 Tidal Signal Verification 104 8.2 Inundation Areas 109 8.3 Storm Tide Hydrographs South Carolina Coast 115 8.3.1 Charleston Harbor 115 8.3.2 Bulls Bay 120 8.3.3 Winyah Bay Inlet 123 8.3.4 McClellanville 126 8.3.5 Awendaw 128 8.4 Winyah Bay Inlet Hydrograph Assessment 129 CHAPTER 9. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK 139 9.1 Conclusion 139 9.2 Future Work 141 APPENDIX A. ADCIRC 2DDI INPUT FILE: MESH DESCRIPTION SC-2-FP 143 APPENDIX B. ADCIRC 2DDI PARAMETERS SC-2-FP 145 APPENDIX C. WIND FIELD DESCRIPTION SC-1 150 LIST OF REFERENCES 152 vii LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Deadliest U.S. Hurricanes 1900-1996 (NOAA, 1996) 2 1.2 Costliest U.S. Hurricanes 1900-2000, damages inflation adjusted to Year 2000 (NOAA, 2000) 4 2.1 Total Number of Storm for each Genesis Region, Period 1952-71 (Pielke, 1990, p. 35) 13 2.2 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (Elsner and Kara, 1999, p.16) 19 2.3 General Characteristics of North Atlantic Hurricanes (Elsner and Kara, 1999) 22 2.4 The Saffir/Simpson Scale. The Table shows the five defined Hurricane Levels and their Features (Elsner and Kara, 1999, p.22) 24 3.1 Physical Processes associated with Storm Event 43 4.1 Computed Wind Field Information Hurricane Hugo 52 5.1 Annual average Freshwater inflows to Winyah bay (Johnson, 1972) 64 6.1 Characteristics of the South Carolina Model Meshes 92 7.1 Tidal Constituents used to force the ADCIRC-2DDI model 102 7.2 Computational Model Setup and Performance (1.75 days) 102 8.1 Peak Elevations at Winyah Bay Inlet in meters above MSL, recorded at Node 1 and Node 4 138 viii LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Hurricane Hugo Track (NOAA). September 11 to 25, 1989 5 1.2 Hurricane Landfall Region Charleston 7 1.3 South Carolina, Waccamaw River, and AIW 10 2.1 Global Tropical Cyclone Source Regions, Period 1952-71 (Pielke, 1990) 13 2.2 Schematic of Wind Motion within a Hurricane 16 2.3 Tropical Disturbance, Gulf of Mexico (USACE, 2003) 18 2.4 Tropical Depression, West Coast Africa (USACE, 2003) 20 2.5 Tropical Storm Claudette, 1997, East Coast USA (USACE, 2003) 20 2.6 Hurricane Hugo Perspective (NASA) 22 2.7 Schematic of Hurricane Winds in the Eye Wall 25 2.8 Hypothesis Hurricane Modification, Project “Stormfury” (NOAA) 31 3.1 The Definition of the Storm Surge and the Storm Tide (BoM) 39 3.2 Schematic of the Storm Surge Composition (UCAR) 39 3.3 SLOSH Basins in the Atlantic (NOAA) 44 3.4 SLOSH Contour Surface Envelopes of Hurricane Hugo (NOAA) 45 4.1 Wind Field Extent with respect to the Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) Model Domain 51 4.2 Computed Wind Field Vectors at Time of Landfall, Charleston Harbor 52 5.1 South Carolina Study Domain 60 5.2 Study Domain Waccamaw River and AIW (Drewes and Conrads, 1995) 61 ix 5.3 Winyah Bay (Maptech Terrain Navigator 2002) 65 5.4 Bulls Bay (Maptech
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