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eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Matthew Information from NHC Advisory 29A, 8:00 AM EDT Wed October 5, 2016 On the forecast track, Matthew will be moving across through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 115 mph Position Relative to 185 miles S of the Long Island Speed: (category 3) Land: Bahamas Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 964 mb Coordinates: 21.5 N, 74.9 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 185 miles Bearing/Speed: NNW or 345 Degrees at 10 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the northwestern portion of this morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring over eastern and portions of the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and eastern Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the southeastern Bahamas and , and should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions should diminish within the warning area in the this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday. ■ Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: 15-25 inches, with isolated amounts of 40 inches, in Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic; 8-12 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches in Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti; and additional 1-2 inches, with isolated storm totals of 12 inches in Eastern ; 8-2 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches in the Bahamas; 2-5 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches, in the Turks and Caicos Islands; 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, in Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic; 4-7 inches, with isolated amounts of10 inches, in the Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-; 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts of 5 inches, in the Middle to Lower Florida Keys. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. ■ The combination of a dangerous and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels: 7-11 feet on the Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz, 7-10 feet on the South Coast of Haiti, 4-6 feet on the Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey, 3-5 feet in the Gulf of Gonave in Haiti, and 10-15 feet on The Bahamas, and 3-5 feet on North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. Forecast Track for Hurricane Matthew Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Matthew Charlotte

Atlanta

10-10 Hamilton 10-09

TS ! Jacksonville 10-08 ÏS Trop Storm Ca t 1 Ca t 2 !1 Ï Ca t 1 Tampa Ca t 3 Ca t 5 !2 Watch/Warn TS Watch Ï Ca t 2 10-07 All Fcst Tracks !3 Ï Ca t 3 Nassau

Tropic of Cancer Havana 10-06 Tropic of Cancer

Camaguey Grand Turk

Santiago0 De Cuba 250 10-05 500 1,000 George Town Miles

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti; the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas; the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island; the Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San

Salvador, and Cat Island; the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Island, and New Providence; North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet; and Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey, and North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward, and the Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti. Summary of Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic Season to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 TS Nicole Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 TS Matthew 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 10/054/16) 14 5 2 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016 12 TS Lisa 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/054/15) 10 3 2 TS Karl TS Julia TS Ian 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 8 TS Hermine 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Gaston TS Fiona

2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 TS Earl HU Matthew TS Danielle HU Hermine (Colorado State University at July 1,‘16) 4 TS Colin HU Gaston M Matthew 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 TS Bonnie HU Earl M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity

Nicole is the fourteenth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average Season. Last year saw ten named storms by October 5, one of which occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, was Major . that Nicole became the season’s fourteenth named storm on October 4. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Potential and Average Remaining Risk A is producing a large area of disorganized showers and Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the . Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining while the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at October 5 is 17.5% for several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, locally all hurricanes and 12.6% for major hurricanes. heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or two as the wave moves through the area. Formation chances are 10 percent through 2 days and 20 percent through 5 days. National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook on October 5, 2016 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% AverageRisk Daily Average Remaining Risk Remaining Average 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652

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