2020 - Atlantic Hurricane Season: a Record-Breaking Season

Home , Atlantic hurricane, Hurricane Alex (2016), Hurricane Delta, Hurricane Dorian, Hurricane Epsilon (2005), Hurricane Eta

2020 - Atlantic Hurricane Season: A record-breaking season

Pamela Probst Alessandro Annunziato Chiara Proietti Stefano Paris

2021

EUR 30635 EN This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc

JRC123932

EUR 30635 EN

PDF ISBN 978-92-76-32177-4 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/00114

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021

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How to cite this report: Probst, P., Annunziato, A., Proietti, C., Paris, S. 2020 – Atlantic Hurricane Season: A record-breaking season, EUR 30635 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-32177-4, doi:10.2760/00114, JRC123932.

Authors affiliations:

Pamela Probst, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Alessandro Annunziato, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Chiara Proietti, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Stefano Paris, FINCONS service provider of European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Vimercate, Italy

Contents

Acknowledgements ...... 4 Abstract ...... 5 1 Introduction ...... 6 2 2020 Atlantic hurricane season ...... 9 2.1 Overview: Impact, frequency and GDACS alerts ...... 9 2.2 Comparisons with past events: 2005 & 2016-2020 ...... 13 2.3 Relevant past events ...... 16 3 Hurricanes & COVID-19 ...... 18 4 Hurricanes & La Niña ...... 19 4.1 ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation): El Niño and La Niña ...... 19 4.2 ENSO situation & forecast ...... 20 5 Hurricanes & Climate change ...... 21 6 Conclusions ...... 22 References ...... 23 List of abbreviations and definitions ...... 26 List of figures ...... 27 List of tables ...... 28 List of boxes ...... 29 Annexes ...... 30 Annex 1. Detailed maps ...... 30 Annex 2. GDACS TC Alerts ...... 32 Annex 3. TCs Classification ...... 33

3 Acknowledgements Daniele Brusa, Tom De Groeve, Luca Giustolisi, Jurgena Kamberaj, Marco Mastronunzio, Valerio Salvitti, Michele Tucci.

4 Abstract The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 30 “named storms” (tropical storm or higher strength), including 13 hurricanes, which is more than double the long-term average of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes. Several records were set (e.g. number of named storms) and the Greek alphabet was used for the second time on record (in the past only in 2005) to assign a name to the tropical storms and hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) officially starts on 1 June and ends on 30 November, with the highest activity from August to late October. However, in 2020, two tropical storms formed in May, before the start of the season, and the last month of the season was particularly active with two major hurricanes: ETA and IOTA. The 2020 season is the fifth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season above-average and several conditions contributed to make the 2020 record-breaking season possible, including La Niña which developed during the peak of the hurricane season and enhanced the hurricane activity in this basin. Every year the tropical cyclones (TCs) affect millions of people around the world, including several vulnerable islands of the Caribbean area and Central America, leaving a trail of destruction that requires the international assistance of the humanitarian community. In this report, the 2016-2020 Atlantic hurricane seasons and the extremely active 2005 season have been analysed, considering the impact on the affected areas and the international humanitarian support. Moreover, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic emergency influenced the TCs preparedness and response activities, creating a multi-risk scenario and increasing the vulnerability. Since 2011, the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) estimates the impact of all the TCs occurring worldwide and timely issued RED alerts for the most destructive events, like for ETA and IOTA in 2020, which devastated Central America.

5 1 Introduction The official hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) officially starts on 1 June and ends on 30 November1 and the highest activity is from mid-August to late October. On average, 12 “named storms” (tropical storms or higher strength, see Annex 3) occur each season, with an average of 6 becoming hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes2. The official Tropical Cyclone3 (TC) Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of this basin is the RSMC Miami - NOAA National Hurricane Center (NOAA-NHC, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). The TCs over the period 2010-2020 of this basin can be found in Fig. 1, while more information in the previous JRC reports (see References) and on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) websites4.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had: Tropical Storm Hurricane/ 6 Basin or stronger Typhoon/Cyclone ❏ 30 Named storms (Vmax ≥ 63 km/h) (Vmax≥63km/h) (Vmax≥119km/h) ❏ 13 Hurricanes (Vmax ≥ 119 km/h) NW Pacific 26.0 16.5 NE/Central Pacific 16.6 8.9 which is significantly above the normal activity. Atlantic 12.1 6.4 The official NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic hurricane Aus SW Pacific 9.9 5.2 season Outlooks, as well as the other seasonal SW Indian 9.3 5.0 forecasts of other agencies published before the Aus SE Indian 7.5 3.6 start of the season, correctly predicted this N Indian 4.8 1.5 extremely active season. Table 1 - Average TC number by basin (source: NOAA)5.

In particular, the number of systems that reached at least tropical/subtropical storms strength in 2020 is above the 2005 record of 28 and even above the average number of all the other TCs basins (see Tab. 1).

Figure 1 - All TCs in the Atlantic basin (2010-2020, data sources: GDACS, NOAA).

1 TCs could form also outside the “official season” (e.g. Hurricane Alex formed in January in 2016, ARTHUR and BERTHA in May in 2020). 2 Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes, due to their potential significant impact. 3 Tropical Cyclone (TC) is a generic term used to describe “a warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center” (see NOAA and see Annex 3). 4 WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme website (https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/index_en.html), at https://severeweather.wmo.int/ and in the WMO Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecast (https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/library/global-guide-tropical-cyclone-forecasting) 5 Based on data from 1981-2010 (1981/82 to 2010/2011 for the Southern Hemisphere). The values are based on data supplied by the WMO Regional Meteorological Center responsible for tropical cyclone forecasting for that particular basin (source: NOAA https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/#records- and-rankings) 6 Vmax = 1-min sustained winds (see WMO guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in TC conditions, WMO/TD-No. 1555 https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=290)

6 The extremely active 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had 28 “storms” (27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm) with 15 hurricanes (including 7 major hurricanes), breaking the old record of 217set in 1933 (data available since 1851). Only for the 2005 and 2020 seasons, the Greek alphabet has been introduced, since the predetermined list of names includes only 21 names (see WMO8, NOAA9). The 2020 season is the fifth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season above-average, while the 2015 season was below-average, also due to strong El Niño conditions, which reduced the number of TCs in this basin. Instead, in 2020, La Niña developed in the Tropical Pacific in Aug-Sep (peak of the Atlantic hurricane season: Aug-Oct) and affected the climate and weather patterns around the world, including the hurricane activity in the Caribbean: when La Niña is sufficiently strong it could enhance the hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, conversely El Niño could reduce it in this basin (different behaviour in the other TC basins, see NOAA10).

Figure 2 - Atlantic hurricane seasons (2000-2020) distinguished by named storm (Vmax ≥ 63 km/h, *sub/tropical storm or higher strength, including unnamed TCs identified during the postseason re-analysis), hurricane (Vmax ≥ 119 km/h) and major hurricane (Vmax ≥ 178 km/h). Data sources: GDACS, NOAA. Every year, TCs affect millions of people around the world, including several vulnerable islands of the Caribbean area and Central America (see Fig. 1), causing fatalities and damage that requires international assistance, like in 2020 with hurricanes ETA and IOTA. In addition, in 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic emergency had an effect also on the hurricane preparedness and response activities, creating a multi-risk situation (COVID-19 & TCs) and increasing the vulnerability. Given this situation, an Early Warnings System able to estimate the correct impact of TCs well in advance is therefore essential, also considering the potential effects of climate change (see UN11 and WMO12). The Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS, see Annex 2), which is a cooperation framework between the United Nation13 and the European Commission14, provides the impact estimation of several different natural hazards, including all TCs occurring worldwide since 2011. GDACS partners join their own specific tools to provide different services within one single system, providing real-time access to web-based disaster information systems and related coordination tools, facilitating information exchange among all different actors. In particular, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) is responsible of the development of the GDACS multi-hazards impact estimation. During the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, GDACS timely issued RED alerts for the two most destructive events, hurricanes ETA and IOTA, which devastated Central America.

7 This number was reduced to 20 after the NOAA re-analysis: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120507_pa_reanalysis1935.pdf 8 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/2020-hurricane-season-exhausts-regular-list-of- names#:~:text=The%20use%20of%20the%20Greek,whose%20names%20were%20all%20retired 9 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news/2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-takes-infamous-top-spot-for-busiest-on-record and https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek 10 NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season 11 UN: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-12-02/secretary-generals-address-columbia-university-the-state-of-the-planet-scroll-down-for- language-versions 12 WMO: https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21804#.X8kDMs1KiUk 13 United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) and the UN Institute for Training and Research – Division for Satellite Analysis and Applied Research (UNITAR-UNOSAT). 14 Joint Research Centre (JRC).

7 In this context, the JRC has provided a dedicated science-based support to the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) of the Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO) for more than 15 years, following all emergencies with various activities (e.g. GDACS, Copernicus Emergency Management Service, maps and reports). In particular, the JRC has prepared detailed reports before the start of the TC seasons (see list below). These reports include background information, detailed analyses of the previous seasons, considering scientific information, impact on the affected areas (in terms of fatalities and economic losses) and the international humanitarian support (OCHA funding, EUCPM activation, EU Solidarity Funds), as well as the seasonal forecasts for the new season. They provide clear and simple information on the past and current situation in the specific TC basin and the possible evolution over the next few months, as well as all the references to the official and authoritative products. These reports could support the humanitarian communities during the preparedness activities before the start of the seasons and as a “lesson learnt” after the end of the season. Here below the list of this type of JRC reports, while all the other reports and maps are available in GDACS15 and on the ERCC portal16: ❏ 2018 - Caribbean: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=155 ❏ 2018 - NW Pacific Typhoons: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=154 ❏ 2018 - South Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=156 ❏ 2018 - South West Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=161 ❏ 2020 - Atlantic Hurricane Season: Past events, current situation, seasonal forecast and COVID-19 situation: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC121004/jrc_technical_report_2020_atlanti c_hurricane_season.pdf

For the Atlantic hurricane basin, as shown in the list above, the JRC has already produced two detailed reports, therefore only the most relevant information has been included in this report, with two additional Sections (La Niña and climate changes) as requested by ERCC/DG ECHO. The analyses of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, including the comparisons with the previous fourth seasons (2016-2019) and the extremely active 2005 season are presented in Section 2. The potential effects that the COVID-19 pandemic emergency could have had during the hurricane season have been included in Section 3, while the effects of La Niña and climate changes, linked to the Atlantic hurricane activity, respectively in Section 4 and Section 5. Concluding remarks are in Section 6, while additional information in Annexes 1-3 and in the previous JRC reports (see References).

15 GDACS Publications: https://www.gdacs.org/Knowledge/publications.aspx 16 ERCC Portal: https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

8 2 2020 Atlantic hurricane season A short analysis of the 2020 extremely active season is shown in Section 2.1, while a comparison with the last five above-normal seasons (2016-2020) and the 2005 season of the record-breaking are presented in Section 2.2. In addition, a detailed analysis of the most significant events occurred over this period is shown in Section 2.3. 2.1 Overview: Impact, frequency and GDACS alerts The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November, however in 2020 it started earlier17, with the formation of tropical storms ARTHUR on 16 May and BERTHA on 27 May and was extremely active and destructive. Several records for a single season activity were set, overpassing several records of the 2005 season, including the highest number of “named storms” ever recorded (see Tab. 3 and Section 2.3). All TC tracks of the 2020 season, categorised by intensity, and the max. GDACS Alerts issued are in Fig. 3.

2020 Atlantic hurricane season 1. Tropical storm ARTHUR 12. Tropical storm KYLE 22. Tropical storm BETA 2. Tropical storm BERTHA 13. Hurricane LAURA (Category 4) 23. Tropical storm WILFRED 3. Tropical storm CRISTOBAL 14. Hurricane MARCO (Category 1) 24. Subtropical storm ALPHA 4. Tropical storm DOLLY 15. Tropical storm OMAR 25. Tropical storm GAMMA 5. Tropical storm EDOUARD 16. Hurricane NANA (Category 1) 26. Hurricane DELTA (Category 4) 6. Tropical storm FAY 17. Hurricane PAULETTE (Category 2) 27. Hurricane EPSILON (Category 3) 7. Tropical storm GONZALO 18. Tropical storm RENE 28. Hurricane ZETA (Category 2) 8. Hurricane HANNA (Category 1) 19. Hurricane SALLY (Category 2) 29. Hurricane ETA (Category 4) 9. Hurricane ISAIAS (Category 1) 20. Hurricane TEDDY (Category 4) 30. Tropical storm THETA 10. Tropical depression TEN (unnamed) 21. Tropical storm VICKY 31. Hurricane IOTA (Category 5) 11. Tropical storm JOSEPHINE

Table 2 and Figure 3 - 2020 Atlantic hurricane season (sources: GDACS, NOAA). Tab. 2: List of the names and peak strength, Fig. 3: all TC tracks (colours based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale- SSHWS, see Annex 3) and max. GDACS alert issued.

17 Note: During the past 6 Atlantic hurricane seasons (2015-2020), a “named storm” formed before the “official start” (1 Jun).

9 2020 - Total number of systems and GDACS Alerts issued

2020 - Number of systems by month

2020 - Cumulative number of systems and averages 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON EXTREMELY active season with: 30 Named storms (Vmax ≥ 63 km/h)

13 Hurricanes (Vmax ≥ 119 km/h)

6 Major hurricanes (Vmax ≥ 178 km/h)

Figure 4 - 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season (names are coloured by intensity, see SSHWS Annex 3) TOP (Fig. 4a): Nr. of systems by intensity and max. GDACS alerts issued (Green, Orange or Red, see Annex 2) MIDDLE (Fig. 4b): Total num. of TCs by intensity and month (the month corresponds to the first date of the max. intensity) BOTTOM (Fig. 4c): Comparisons between the cumulative number of systems of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the average (1966-2009), source: NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/).

10 The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was a “record-breaking” season18. The number of events recorded during this season, as well as the averages, records and seasonal forecasts are in Tab. 3, while a number of records set during this season are shown below: ❏ 30 Named storms formed during the season (previous record: 27 in 2005 considering only the named storms, 28 considering all the systems that reached at least tropical/subtropical storms19). ➔ Only for the 2005 and 2020 seasons, the Greek alphabet has been introduced, since the predetermined list of names includes only 21 names (see WMO20, NOAA21). It will not be used anymore in the future (see WMO22). ❏ 5 Named storms in July (previous record in 2005, typically only 1-2 named storms formed before August). ❏ 10 Named storms in September (record for any month, typically 4 named storms formed in September). ❏ 12 Named storms made landfall in the USA (previous record: 9 in 1916), 5 of them in Louisiana state, with hurricane LAURA the most damaging event (see Box 1). ❏ Extremely active TC activity in November: 3 named storms (ETA23, IOTA, THETA), including two major hurricanes (ETA & IOTA, see Box 1), with IOTA becoming the latest-forming Category 5 Hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin (30-year climatology 1981-2010: 1 major hurricane every 7-8 year). In should be noted that this season was longer-than-average with numerous rapid-intensification events, and the ACE-Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which measures the strength/duration of tropical storms/hurricanes, of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been 75 % above the long-term mean24. More information on all the records of this season can be found on the NOAA25 and WMO26 websites.

NOAA 2020 Atlantic Hurricane

Number of events Averages Records Season Outlook Activity 2020 1981-2010 21 May 8 Aug 2020 New Record Above normal ↑ 30 (≥TS) 12 (≥TS) 13-19 (≥TS) 19-25 (≥TS) Previous: 28*(≥TS) in 2005

Above normal ↑ 13 (HU) 6 (HU) 15 (HU) in 2005 6-10 (HU) 7-11 (HU)

8 (MH) in 1950 Above normal ↑ 6 (MH) 3 (MH) 3-6 (MH) 3-6 (MH) 7 (MH) in 2005 Table 3 - 2020 TC activity, averages, records, seasonal forecasts (extended-range) (TS=Tropical Storm, HU=Hurricanes, MH=Major Hurricanes, and ≥TS = Tropical Storms or higher strength, Named Storm, see Annex 3) * 27 tropical storms (named storms) and one subtropical storm (unnamed), see Beven et al (2008). NOTE: Early Warning Systems are essential to reduce the impact of these TCs and the preparedness actions play a key role in reducing the impact of these phenomena. Following the forecast and advisories is essential because a TC could quickly form and intensify: for example a devastating Category 5 Hurricane could be a tropical storm or a Category 1 only a couple of days before landfall (e.g. Hurricane MARIA in 2017 intensified from Category 1 to 5 in less than one day before making landfall in Dominica, while Hurricane IOTA in 2020 intensified from Category 1 to 5 in about one day, devastating Central America and the Colombian islands of San Andrés and Providencia). In 2020, there were 10 rapid intensifications (see NOAA27). The official NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks28 (see previous JRC reports and Tab. 3) published before the start of the season correctly predicted this extremely active season. The potential La Niña development was factored into the NOAA Outlooks issued in August (see Section 4).

18 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end 19 In 2005 there was also an unnamed subtropical storm, bringing the total to 28 considering the cumulative number of the systems reaching at least tropical or subtropical storm intensity, while the number of named storms was 27. 20 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/2020-hurricane-season-exhausts-regular-list-of- names#:~:text=The%20use%20of%20the%20Greek,whose%20names%20were%20all%20retired 21 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news/2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-takes-infamous-top-spot-for-busiest-on-record 22 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek 23 ETA formed at the end of October and continued in November reaching its max. intensity 24 NOAA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml 25 NOAA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/202010, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/tws/?yyyy=2020&bb=AT&mm=11 26 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-ends 27 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end 28 NOAA: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2020/August/Slide1.JPG and https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/noaa-expert- answers-our-questions-about-historical-2020-hurricane-season

11 GDACS Alerts (2020) Since 2011, the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS, www.gdacs.org) includes the real-time impact estimation of every TCs occurring worldwide and its alerts allow to identify the cases in which the assistance of the international community could be required (see Annex 2). Specifically, for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, GDACS issued 4 Red alerts (LAURA29 in August, DELTA in October, ETA and IOTA in November) and 5 Orange alerts (see Fig. 5c). For 2 Red alerts (ETA & IOTA), the International Assistance (IA) was effectively required (see Section 2.2 and 2.3).

❏ Hurricane LAURA (20-28 Aug 2020): it made landfall on 27 Aug along the coasts of Louisiana (USA), close to the border with Texas, as an intense Category 4 with max. sustained winds of 240 km/h. Strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge (up to 3-4 m) affected these areas. After the landfall, it moved inland weakening, but still producing heavy rainfall in several states of the USA. LAURA, before reaching the USA, moved across the Caribbean as a tropical storm, causing damage and fatalities, especially in Haiti and Dominican Republic. It caused the death of at least 49 people, including 31 in Haiti. It should be noted that the coastal areas of Louisiana were affected only a few days before, by the passage of tropical storm MARCO, and LAURA was the strongest (tied) hurricane to ever hit Louisiana30. ❏ Hurricane ETA (31 Oct - 13 Nov 2020): it formed over the Caribbean Sea on 31 Oct and started moving west strengthening. It made landfall in Nicaragua, in the area south of Puerto Cabezas, on 3 Nov as a Category 4 hurricane with max. sustained winds of 220 km/h. Then it moved inland over Nicaragua and Honduras and emerged again over the Caribbean Sea, reaching Cuba on 8 Nov and Florida (USA) on 9 and 12 Nov, as a tropical storm. During its passage, it caused very heavy rainfall and extensive floods in several areas of Central America (mostly in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Mexico and Panama), as well as in parts of the Caribbean islands and south-eastern USA. ❏ Hurricane IOTA (13-18 Nov 2020): it formed over the Caribbean Sea on 13 Nov and moved west towards Nicaragua, strengthening into a very dangerous Category 5 Hurricane on 16 Nov, passing very close to the archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina (Colombia). Then it slightly weakened and reached the area south of Puerto Cabezas (almost the same landfall area of hurricane ETA) early on 17 Nov, still as a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane with max. sustained winds of 240 km/h. Afterwards, it continued moving inland towards Honduras and El Salvador weakening, but affecting these areas with heavy rain. IOTA especially affected Nicaragua, San Andrés and Providencia (Colombia)31 and Honduras. ➔ ETA & IOTA caused extensive floods and damage in Central America, as well in the Colombian islands of San Andrés and Providencia, affecting millions of people and causing over 300 fatalities (preliminary data32) and the international assistance was required (see Section 2.3). ➔ The extended severe weather situation due to the passage of hurricanes ETA and IOTA posed increasing risk of excessive overspilling for the El Cajon dam in Honduras, one of the countries mostly hit by these events. The international community in general and the humanitarian organizations in particular raised concerns on the possible consequences of the dam emergency release operations. To support the ongoing humanitarian response JRC performed a specific dam inundation analysis, as for the situation of the dams after the passage of MARIA in Puerto Rico (2017), SON-TINH in Laos PDR (2018) and IDAI in Mozambique (2019). Box 1 - Description of the deadliest events of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

29 Final GDACS alert for LAURA: Orange (at the beginning it was a Red alert, but after the new forecasts became available, the alert level was reduced to Orange). 30 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/hurricane-laura-hits-usa 31 It should be noted that Colombia was also facing the effects of La Niña (see Section 4) 32 ECHO Daily Map of 18 Dec 2020: https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/getdailymap/docId/3576

12 2.2 Comparisons with past events: 2005 & 2016-2020 In this Section, a comparison among the latest four seasons with above-normal activities (2016-2019) and the “record-breaking seasons” (2005, 2020) is presented. All TC tracks over the period of this analysis, categorised by intensity, are shown in Fig. 6. Of these TCs, JRC has analysed the following aspects: o Humanitarian impact by TC season (Fig. 5a) o Total number of TCs by season and intensity (Fig. 5b) o Maximum alerts issued by GDACS (Fig. 5c) The TCs that form in this basin could affect several vulnerable islands of the Caribbean area (see Fig. 1), causing every year hundreds of fatalities and damage that could require international assistance (see previous JRC Reports and UN OCHA report - Latin America and the Caribbean: Natural Disasters 2000-201933). Specifically, the 2005 is one of the most active and deadliest Atlantic hurricane seasons ever recorded34, with several devastating events like KATRINA, STAN, RITA, WILMA, DENNIS, ALPHA, GAMMA. Among them, KATRINA and STAN were the deadliest events and only these two events have been described in Box 2 and analysed in Section 2.3, while more information can be found on the NOAA website35 and in Baven et al. (2008).

❏ Hurricane KATRINA (23-30 Aug 2005): One of the most damaging TCs disasters in the history of the USA, which caused fatalities and damage in several regions (Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana and Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama), with more than 1500 direct fatalities, mostly in Louisiana. KATRINA, after reaching Category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 3. It caused a large storm surge, straining the levee system protecting New Orleans and significant failures occurred in this system, causing extensive floods. ❏ Hurricane STAN (1-5 Oct 2005): It formed over the Caribbean Sea and it reached first the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) early in October, as a tropical storm, then Veracruz state as a Category 1 hurricane, causing the direct death of 80 people. However, STAN was “embedded within a portion of a larger low- level cyclonic circulation”, which caused very heavy rains and floods in Mexico and Central America, causing the death of 1000-2000 people, especially in Guatemala (see Beven et al., 2008). Box 2 - Description of the two deadliest events of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

Considering the last fourth Atlantic hurricane seasons 2016-201936, the 2017 was particularly active and intense, with 6 major hurricanes (as in 2020), 3 of them (HARVEY, IRMA and MARIA) caused large damage37 and fatalities in the Caribbean and USA38. In addition, hurricane MATTHEW in 2016 caused nearly 600 fatalities (mostly in Haiti) and hurricane DORIAN in 2019 left a trail of destruction in the Bahamas. Also, during the 2020 extremely active Atlantic season, around 400 people died (preliminary number), with hurricanes ETA and IOTA that affected millions of people and caused extensive damage in Central America and Colombian islands. During the same season, several hurricanes affected the USA, especially Louisiana, with LAURA the most severe event, and Caribbean islands like Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba and the Bahamas were also affected by various systems.

For the most significant events of the period analysed (except for NATE in 2017, see previous JRC reports), GDACS issued a Red or Orange alert at least 3 days in advance, timely alerting the international community.

33 https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/latin-america-and-caribbean/document/latin-america-and-caribbean-natural-disasaters-2000 34 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record before the 2020 season in terms of named storms and it is still the most active in terms of hurricanes. It broke several “records”: 27 tropical storms (named storms) and one subtropical storm (unnamed), with 15 becoming hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes (with five Category 5 Hurricanes), see Beven et al. (2008) 35 NOAA: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/200513 36 A detailed analysis of these seasons is presented in the previous JRC Emergency Reports. 37 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/lessons-learnt-from-2017-caribbean-hurricane-season. 38 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/wmo-hurricane-committee-reviews-devastating-2017-season-retires-names

13 ✻ Most of the deaths due to hurricane Katrina. For STAN, only the direct fatalities have been included, but it was embedded within a portion of a larger low-level cyclonic circulation, resulting in 1000- 2000 fatalities, see Box 2.

✻ Only direct fatalities have been included (number of indirect fatalities could be significantly higher).

✻ Preliminary data of the 2020 Atlantic season.

✻ 2005 “unnamed” subtropical storm included

Figure 5 - TOP (Fig. 5a): Number of fatalities and people affected by TC season (2005, 2016-2020), as well as the names of the most significant TCs of the season. MIDDLE (Fig. 5b) - Total number of named storms (Tropical storms or higher strength) by season (2005, 2016-2020) and intensity (see SSHWS, classification in Annex 3). BOTTOM (Fig. 5c) - All TCs GDACS Alerts (Green, Orange, Red) issued for the Atlantic Basin (max. alert sent to the users), including also the tropical depressions. The names of the TCs GDACS Red Alert are also indicated in this figure. Sources: Impact (ECHO, UN, EM-DAT, NOAA, Beven et al. 2008), TC information (GDACS, NOAA).

Figure 6 - TCs in the Atlantic basin for the seasons 2005 & 2016 - 2020. The names of the most significant events (see Section 2.3) are included in the maps. Data sources: GDACS, NOAA.

15 2.3 Relevant past events The most significant TCs for the seasons analysed (2005, 2016-2020) have been selected, considering: • Humanitarian impact (number of fatalities > 20*) • Support from UN OCHA (on field and economic) • EUCPM activation • EU Solidarity Funds request * NOTE: For the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season there were several devastating events that caused extensive damage with more than 20 fatalities (e.g. KATRINA, STAN, RITA, WILMA, DENNIS, ALPHA, GAMMA). Among them, KATRINA and STAN (see Section 2.2.) were the deadliest events and only these two events have been selected. For 2020, only the three major events IOTA, ETA and LAURA have been included using the information available so far and not the NOAA’s 2020 - TC final reports (not yet available for all TCs).

Tab. 4 on the next page contains the following information for the 15 TCs identified and included in Fig.7.

TC Information ● TC time period: from the formation until its dissipation (sources: GDACS, NOAA) ● TC intensity: information provided for the peak intensity (sources: GDACS, NOAA)

○ Classification based on the maximum 1-min sustained winds (Vmax) and the category of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), see Annex 3.

■ Vmax ≤ 62 km/h (Tropical Depression-TD)

■ Vmax 63-118 km/h (Tropical Storm-TS)

■ Vmax ≥ 119 km/h (Hurricane, Category from 1 to 5) Impact ● Humanitarian impact: in terms of number of direct fatalities (sources: NOAA, EM-DAT, ECHO, OCHA) ○ Direct fatalities: “fatalities occurring as a direct result of the forces of the TC, including people who drowned in storm surge, rough seas, rip currents and freshwater floods, as well as casualties resulting from lightning and wind-related events”. ○ Indirect fatalities: “fatalities occurring from other indirect factors like heart attacks, house fires, electrocutions from downed power lines, vehicle accidents on wet roads.” The number of “indirect fatalities” could be considerably higher than the direct ones. ➔ In the case of hurricane MARIA in 2017, the number of fatalities is highly uncertain: the official number in Puerto Rico is 65, but various studies suggested that hundreds (possibly thousands) may have died during its aftermath, when lack of electricity, water and access to medical cares affected many people. The total number of fatalities is highly uncertain also in the case of hurricane STAN in 2005 (see Box. 2). ● Affected area: the most affected countries.

Early Warning System ● GDACS Alert level: Red/Orange/Green alert issued (max. alert sent to the users);

Response ● Humanitarian response: total amount of the requested funds39 (source: UN OCHA, https://fts.unocha.org) and amount of which provided from European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Department). ● EUCPM Activation. ● European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF): total EUSF aid (source: EC, https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/solidarity-fund/). ● Copernicus EMS activations: activation code for Rapid Mapping and Risk and Recovery activations.

39 Values converted to EUR from USD

Figure 7 and Table 4 - Relevant TCs in the Atlantic basin for the seasons 2005 & 2016 - 2020. Data sources: TC information (GDACS, NOAA), Humanitarian impact (NOAA Reports, EM-DAT, UN OCHA, ECHO), Response (ECHO, OCHA, Copernicus EMS (a) death toll in Puerto Rico was uncertain see Pag. 16, (b) including pre-disturbance, (c) only direct fatalities of STAN, the whole complex system: 1000-2000 fatalities see Box 2, (d) reduced to Orange in the Final alert level, (e) further economic support has been provided, see https://ec.europa.eu/echo/news/eu-adds-35-million-post-hurricane-matthew-aid- haiti_en). Note for 2020 events: Preliminary number of fatalities / TC intensity (NOAA RSMC Miami TC reports not yet available for all the events) and total humanitarian funds amount not yet available.

17 3 Hurricanes & COVID-19 In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic emergency influenced the preparedness and response activities of the TC seasons and the governments updated/revised their guidelines to address all the containment measures adopted for COVID-19. This “multi-risk situation” could have increased the vulnerability of the people at risk, complicating the management of the emergency (see WHO40); for example, as a consequence of the difficulty to respect the social distancing inside the shelters and during the evacuations and recovery activities, with the potential risk of the insurgence of new cases. It might also have affected the response and recovery operations (see WMO41). A detailed analysis on the potential effects and containment measures was included in the previous JRC Report (Probst et al., 2020), while more information can be found at: EC-JRC COVID-19 Dashboard42, ECDC43, WHO COVID-19 Dashboard44, Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO45, CDEMA46, CARICOM47 and CARPHA48. For example, the number of cases in Honduras in Nov showed an increase in the departments strongly affected by the passage of ETA at the beginning of the month49 . The same areas were affected again by the passage of the hurricane IOTA only two weeks later. It is difficult to say if its passage could have had an effect on the number of cases (e.g. due to possible lack of social distancing), but it is clear however that any additional crisis can endanger the efforts for the COVID-19 crisis, especially since several areas were still recovering from the previous hurricane. Preliminary reports showed health/care facilities damaged, limitation/no access to health services, major losses in medical equipment and other supplies in the areas affected. According to PAHO/WHO report50: “The affected countries present a multi-hazard scenario, where in addition to the impacts of both hurricanes Eta and Iota, the countries have been facing an ongoing COVID19 pandemic which have been saturating their already vulnerable health services for months. The situation is worsened by pre-existing epidemiological situation (Dengue, Malaria, Leptospirosis) in some countries. Furthermore, there are existing risks related to COVID19 shelter management due to the insufficient access to PPE and the difficulties implementing COVID19 preventive measures.” In this context, during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, JRC monitored the COVID-19 emergency, through the EC-JRC COVID-19 Dashboard (https://covid-statistics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/), and the new GDACS section on the COVID-19 situation in the affected countries (see Fig. 8 for hurricanes ETA and IOTA).

Figure 8 - COVID-19 time evolution in Honduras affected by hurricanes ETA & IOTA (Source: GDACS, as of 3 Dec 2020)

40 WHO: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Advisory-Preparedness-2020.1 41 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/early-warnings-and-actions-mitigate-disasters-pandemic- situation?utm_source=WMO+Bulletin&utm_campaign=e3b7035b2e- EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_11_20_01_43_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46acf39490-e3b7035b2e-, https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10444 42 EC-JRC: https://covid-statistics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ 43 ECDC: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases 44 WHO: https://covid19.who.int/ 45 PAHO/WHO: https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/16a046e687b3400b920b5b2f398587e1 and https://ais.paho.org/phip/viz/COVID19Table.asp 46 CDEMA: https://www.cdema.org 47 CARICOM: https://caricom.org/ 48 CARPHA: https://carpha.org/What-We-Do/Public-Health/Novel-Coronavirus 49 WHO/PAHO: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ETA.pdf 50 PAHO/WHO: https://www.paho.org/en/documents/pahowho-response-hurricanes-eta-and-iota-central-america-situation-report-9

18 4 Hurricanes & La Niña The 2020 is the fifth consecutive year with an above-normal TC activity in the Atlantic basin (see Section 2.2) and La Niña had an important role, but “El Niño/La Niña” are not the only factors that could influence the TCs activity, there are many other aspects that have to be considered. As reported by NOAA51: “This increased hurricane activity is attributed to the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) — which began in 1995 — and has favoured more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms since that time. Such active eras for Atlantic hurricanes have historically lasted about 25 to 40 years. The interrelated set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions linked to the warm AMO were again present in 2020. These included warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger west African monsoon, along with much weaker vertical wind shear and wind patterns coming off of Africa that were more favourable for storm development. These conditions, combined with La Nina, helped make this record-breaking, extremely active hurricane season possible.” NOTE: Since this analysis is not focused on the topic “El Niño/La Niña”, only the most significant information for the Atlantic TC basin is reported below, while for more information see the links included in the References.

4.1 ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation): El Niño and La Niña

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes a period of fluctuation in the sea surface temperature and air pressure of the overlying atmosphere in the east and central Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can have a large impact on the usual climate/weather pattern throughout the year (see References, NOAA, WMO) Warm phase: El Niño, Cold phase: La Niña

These phenomena could also affect the TCs in various parts of the world: when El Niño is sufficiently strong could reduce the TC activity in the Atlantic basin (different effect in the other basins) like in 2015 (see Fig. 2), conversely La Niña could enhance it in this basin, like in 202052.

Atlantic basin: Typical Weather Impacts (temperature & precipitation patterns, Hurricane activity) during a typical La Niña event and not specific for the 2020-2021 event

during a typical El Niño event and not specific for the 2020-2021 event

Figure 9 - Typical influence of La Niña (TOP) and El Niño (BOTTOM) on the weather patterns (A-D) (see NOAA53) and potential effects on the hurricane activity (E-F) (see ENSO blog, climate.gov54)

51 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end 52 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin and https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/behind-the- 2015-atlantic-hurricane-season-wind-shear-tropical-cyclones/ 53 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/global-impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a 54 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season

19 An indication of the ENSO intensity over the past 40 years is presented in Fig. 10, where the Multivariate ENSO 55 Index (MEIV2.0) is shown, as well as the most recent major strong events of La Niña / El Niño. Specifically, the last strong La Niña event occurred nearly a decade ago (2010-2011) and was one of the strongest events, followed by a moderate event in 2011-201256,57. These events caused widespread floods in several countries, like in Australia and in part of south-east Asia, drought in East Africa, and enhanced the TC activity in the Atlantic basin (see NOAA58, WMO59). It also affected other countries, like Colombia, where 4 million people were affected with large economic losses (see Hoyos et al, 2013), see more information in the References. NOTE: After the 2015-2016 El Niño event, which affected millions of people around the world, an ENSO cell was developed by the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, WMO and humanitarian organizations to provide impact-based advice to the United Nations and its humanitarian partners (see WMO60).

61 Figure 10 - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEIv2.0, NOAA ). The latest strong La Niña/El Niño events are highlighted.

4.2 ENSO situation & forecast La Niña developed in the tropical Pacific in Aug-Sep62 2020, during the peak of hurricane season, influencing the climate/weather patterns around the world, including the Caribbean, enhancing the Atlantic hurricane activity63 (see impact summary in WMO64 and UN65). It strengthened in Oct and continued over the following months. According to the latest forecast (11 Mar 2021, NOAA66), La Niña persisted in Jan and Feb 2021 and there is: ❏ ~60% chance of a transition to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June) → ENSO Alert system Status: La Niña Advisory Current ENSO conditions/forecasts are available at WMO67, NOAA68, IRI69, CariCOF70 (see References).

55 A description of the ENSO indexes available are in https://www.weather.gov/fwd/indices and https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ 56 La Niña 2010-2011 event was comparable in strength with the events of 1917–1918, 1955–1956 and 1975–1976, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/La-Nina-2010-12.pdf, see the strong events on the NOAA MEI website 57 BOM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/ 58 NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/double-dip-la-ni%C3%B1a 59 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/la-ni%C3%B1a-has-developed 60 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/la-ni%C3%B1a-has-developed 61 NOAA: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ 62 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-updat e 63 Additional conditions for an extremely active season: warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon, see NOAA https://www.noaa.gov/media- release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin 64 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/la-ni%C3%B1a-has-developed 65 UN: https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076432 66 NOAA: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 67 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update 68 NOAA: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 69 IRI: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ 70 CariCOF: https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/long-range-forecasts/caricof-climate-outlooks/

20 5 Hurricanes & Climate change As shown in the previous sections, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous natural disasters, with their destructive winds, torrential rainfall (and consequent effects like floods, flash floods and landslides) and storm surge. Every year these natural phenomena affect millions of people around the world, leaving a trail of destruction in several countries, especially along the coastal areas, including in the Caribbean area. In 2020, the number of TCs (globally) was above average with more than double long-term activity in the Atlantic basin71,72. The destructive effects of the climate change around the world are widely studied around the world (see UN73) and in 2020, as reported in the latest WMO Provisional Report on the State of the Global Climate 202074: “Concentrations of the major greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O, continued to increase in 2019 and 2020. Despite developing La Niña conditions, global mean temperature in 2020 is on course to be one of the three warmest on record. The past six years, including 2020, are likely to be the six warmest years on record.” In this context, to understand the role of the climate change also on the TC activity is fundamental and the dialogue between the humanitarian and scientific communities is even more important to improve the TC impact estimation. However, the link between TCs and climate change is very complex and it has been looked at closely by several scientists over the last decade, with sometimes conflicting results. Note: This complex topic goes beyond the aim of this report and therefore only some relevant information are reported below, to show how climate change could have influenced TCs activity in the past and could affect them in the future. More information can be found on the WMO and IPCC websites (see References). ❏ Past TC activity: A new study (see Murakami et al, 2020, NOAA75) shows how the climate change may have been influencing the locations where the TCs occur, in terms of global spatial distribution. → An increasing trend has been observed over the period 1980-2018 in the North Atlantic and Central Pacific, while a decreased trend in the western North Pacific and southern Indian Ocean. → According to the same study, three forces are influencing where the TCs are hitting: greenhouse gases, manmade aerosols (including particulate pollution and other aerosols) and volcanic eruptions. ❏ Future TC activity: According to several studies, climate change might have for example the following impacts in the future: ▪ Future sea level rise, due to global warming, could lead to a higher storm surge ▪ TC precipitation rates will likely increase Other studies (see References) show also other possible effects (e.g. slowdown in TC translation speed, poleward shift, rapid intensification, decreases in TC numbers, but increases in their maximum intensities). It should be noted that there is still uncertainty among the various topics and work is still on-going, especially on the representation of the air-sea processes and how the extreme intensity of TC’s centre and its rapid intensifications can be modelled. There is also a variation between different modelling studies of the TC parameters in the different TC basins. More information on the WMO76, IPCC77, NOAA78 websites, as well as in several studies like Walsh et al. (2019), Kossin (2018), Sharmila and Walsh (2018), Knutson et al. (2010 and 2019).

Note: More information on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), see Section 4, and climate change can be found at: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/news-story/el-ni%C3%B1o-southern-oscillation-changing-climate

71 NOAA: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/noaa-expert-answers-our-questions-about-historical-2020-hurricane-season 72 NOAA: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/202013 73 UN: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-12-02/secretary-generals-address-columbia-university-the-state-of-the-planet-scroll-down-for- language-versions 74 WMO: https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10444 75 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news/study-climate-change-has-been-influencing-where-tropical-cyclones-rage 76 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/tropical-cyclones-warmer-climate and https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/devastating-tropical-cyclones- florence-and-mangkhut-raise-renewed-questions-about-climate 77 IPCC: https://www.ipcc.ch/ 78 NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news/study-climate-change-has-been-influencing-where-tropical-cyclones-rage

21 6 Conclusions The 2020 Atlantic hurricanes season (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico) was extremely active: 30 named storms (tropical storm or higher strength), with 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes; these numbers are more than double the long-term averages (respectively: 12, 6 and 3). The season in this Tropical Cyclone (TC) basin officially starts on 1 June and ends on 30 November, with the highest activity from mid-August to late October. However, in 2020 two tropical storms formed in May, before the start of the season, and two major hurricanes (ETA and IOTA) formed during the last month of the season, including hurricane IOTA which was the latest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record. Numerous records were set in 2020, including the highest number of named storms in one single season (30), single month (10 in September), and which made landfall in USA (12). In this report, the 2016-2020 seasons and the extremely active 2005 season have been analysed in detail, considering the impact on the affected areas (in terms of fatalities) and the international humanitarian support (OCHA funding, EUCPM activation, EU Solidarity Funds). Notably, there were: KATRINA (2005) in the USA, STAN (2005) in Central America; MATTHEW (2016) in Haiti; IRMA (2017) and MARIA (2017) in the Caribbean and USA; DORIAN (2019) in the Bahamas; ETA and IOTA (2020) which left a trail of destruction in Central America. The 2020 season is the fifth consecutive Atlantic hurricane season above-average and several conditions contributed to make this record-breaking season possible: La Niña, which enhanced the hurricane activity in this basin, combined with the interrelated set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions linked to the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation-AMO (e.g. warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, stronger west African monsoon, much weaker vertical wind shear, wind patterns coming off of Africa; NOAA). It should be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic emergency influenced the hurricane preparedness and response activities, creating a multi-risk situation and increasing the vulnerability of the affected areas. The Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS, www.gdacs.org) timely and correctly issued RED alerts also for the most destructive events of the 2020 record-breaking hurricane season: ETA and IOTA.

22 References ❏ Annunziato A. and P. Probst (2016). JRC storm surge system for Europe: JRC SSCS bulletins and the new GDACS system. EUR 28327 EN ❏ Beven, J. L., L. A. Avila, E. S. Blake, D. P. Brown, J. L. Franklin, R. D. Knabb, R. J. Pasch, J. R. Rhome, and S. R. Stewart (2008). Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005. Monthly Weather Review. AMS Journal. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2074.1 ❏ Bloemendaal, N., de Moel, H., Muis, S. et al. Estimation of global tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities using the STORM dataset. Sci Data 7, 377 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00720-x ❏ Franchello, G., and E. Krausmann (2008). HyFlux2: a numerical model for the impact assessment of severe inundation scenario to chemical facilities and downstream environment. EUR 23354 EN ❏ Hoyos, N., J. Escobar, J.C. Restrepo, A.M. Arango, J.C. Ortiz (2013). Impact of the 2010–2011 La Niña phenomenon in Colombia, South America: The human toll of an extreme weather event, Applied Geography, Volume 39, 2013, Pages 16-25, ISSN 0143-6228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.11.018. ❏ Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann (2010). The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 363-376. doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1 ❏ Knapp, K. R., H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, M. C. Kruk, C. J. Schreck (2018): International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. ❏ Knutson, T., S. J. Camargo, J. C. L. Chan, K. Emanuel, C. Ho, J. Kossin, M. Mohapatra, M. Satoh, M. Sugi, K. Walsh, and L. Wu. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution (2019). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. AMS Journal. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1 ❏ Knutson, T., McBride, J., Chan, J. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change (2010). Nature Geosci 3, 157– 163. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779 ❏ Kossin, J.P (2018). A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed. Nature 558, 104–107. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0158-3. ❏ Murakami, H., T. L. Delworth, W. F. Cooke, M. Zhao, B. Xiang, P. Hsu (2020). Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences May 2020, 117 (20) 10706-10714; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922500117 ❏ Poljansek, K., Vernaccini, L. and Marin Ferrer, M. (2020), INFORM Covid-19 Risk Index, EUR 30240 EN, ISBN 978-92-76-19203-9, doi:10.2760/596184, JRC120799 ❏ Probst, P., Annunziato, A., Proietti, C., Fonio, C., Santini, M., Paris, S. and Giustolisi, L. (2020) - Atlantic Hurricane Season: Past events, current situation, seasonal forecast and COVID-19 situation. EUR 30259 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Ispra, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-19625-9, doi:10.2760/713400, JRC121004 ❏ Probst P. and A. Annunziato (2017). JRC storm surge system: new developments. Ispra (Italy): ISBN 978- 92-79-77802-5, doi:10.2760/903165 Publications Office of the European Union; 2017. ❏ Probst, P. and G. Franchello (2012). Global storm surge forecast and inundation modelling. EUR 25233EN ❏ Sharmila, S., Walsh, K.J.E (2018). Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion. Nature Clim Change 8, 730–736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5 ❏ Walsh, K.J.E., S.J. Camargo, T.R. Knutson, J. Kossin, T.-C. Lee, H. Murakami, C. Patricola (2019). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Volume 8, Issue 4, Pages 240-250, ISSN 2225-6032, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.004.

23 EC-JRC Emergency Reports

❏ 2018 - Caribbean: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=155 ❏ 2018 - NW Pacific Typhoons: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=154 ❏ 2018 - South Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=156 ❏ 2018 - South West Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones: Past events, current situation and seasonal forecast: https://www.gdacs.org/Public/download.aspx?type=DC&id=161 ❏ 2020 - Atlantic Hurricane Season: Past events, current situation, seasonal forecast and COVID-19 situation:https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC121004/jrc_technical_report_2020_atlantic_ hurricane_season.pdf ❏ 2020 - Hurricane ISAIAS in the Bahamas ❏ 2020 - Hurricane IOTA and El Cajon Dam discharge scenario (report & update)

ECHO Daily Map prepared by EC-JRC for ERCC/DG ECHO

For the events of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season (available at: https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Maps/Daily-maps): 18 Dec, 26 Nov, 16 Nov, 12 Nov, 5 Nov, 28 Oct, 7 Oct, 14 Sep, 3 Sep, 31 Aug, 24 Aug, 5 Aug, 30 July, 24 July, 3 Jun, 29 May

Relevant links

❏ GDACS: https://www.gdacs.org/ ❏ EC-JRC COVID-19 Dashboard: https://covid-statistics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ ❏ EC-ERCC portal: https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ ❏ INFORM: https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index ❏ IPCC: https://www.ipcc.ch/ ❏ Copernicus EMS: https://emergency.copernicus.eu/ ❏ WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/index_en.html ❏ WMO Severe weather Information Centre: http://severe.worldweather.org/ ❏ RSMC Miami-Hurricane Center/NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, USA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ❏ Reliefweb: https://reliefweb.int/ ❏ VOSOOC: https://vosocc.unocha.org/ ❏ UN OCHA:http://www.unocha.org/ ❏ Disaster Charter: https://disasterscharter.org ❏ UNOSAT-UNITAR: https://www.unitar.org/unosat/ ❏ EM-DAT - The Emergency Events Database - Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED, D. Guha-Sapir - www.emdat.be, Brussels, Belgium

COVID-19 situation monitoring and risk assessment platforms

❏ EC-JRC COVID-19 Dashboard: https://covid-statistics.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ ❏ ECDC: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html ❏ WHO: https://covid19.who.int/ ❏ UNESCO (COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response): https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse ❏ ACAPS COVID19 Government Measures Dataset: https://www.acaps.org/projects/covid19/data

24 Tropical Cyclone (TC) - Information, Past events, Formation, ongoing events and forecasts

❏ WMO - Tropical Cyclone Programme: https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/index_en.html ❏ WMO - Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting: https://cyclone.wmo.int/ ❏ NOAA Historical TCs track: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ ❏ NOAA IBTrACS: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/ ❏ WMO - Tropical Cyclone Forecaster website: http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW/ ❏ WMO - Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast information: https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/seasonal-tropical-cyclone- forecasts ❏ NOAA - National Hurricane Centre: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ❏ NOAA-HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php ❏ NOAA Climate Prediction Center, CARIBBEAN & CENTRAL AMERICA: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/camerica/camerica.shtml ❏ NOAA-NESDIS: Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTCSWA): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html ❏ RAMMB: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical_cyclones/ ❏ ECMWF: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/ ❏ Colorado State University: https://tropical.colostate.edu/

ENSO: El Niño/La Niña information

❏ WMO: ➔ https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update ➔ https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/la-ni%C3%B1a-has-developed ➔ https://public.wmo.int/en/About-us/FAQs/faqs-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a ➔ https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=7888 ❏ NOAA: ➔ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf ➔ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html ➔ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ ➔ https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/ ➔ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/ ➔ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml ➔ https://www.climate.gov/enso ➔ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ ➔ https://www.weather.gov/fwd/indicesd ➔ https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ ➔ https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/lanina-faq ➔ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ ❏ IRI: ➔ https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/ ➔ https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook ❏ UN / UN OCHA: ➔ https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076432 ➔ http://www.unocha.org/el-nino ❏ CariCOF: https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/long-range-forecasts/caricof-climate-outlooks/ ❏ CIIFEN: http://www.ciifen.org/ ❏ BOM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/ ❏ UK MetOffice: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-lanina/enso-impacts

25 List of abbreviations and definitions BOM Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government CariCOF Caribbean Regional Climate Center CIIFEN International Centre for the Investigation of El Niño (CIIFEN) CDEMA Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency CEMS Copernicus Emergency Management Service CSU Colorado State University EC European Commission ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ECHO European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations ECMWF European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast ERCC Emergency Response Coordination Centre of DG ECHO GDACS Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System GFS Global Forecasting System GHSL Global Human Settlement Layer GPM Global Precipitation Measurement HWRF Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System INFORM INDEX FOR RISK MANAGEMENT IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRI International Research Institute for Climate Society JRC Joint Research Centre JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center NESDIS National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service NHC National Hurricane Center NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS National Weather Service OCHA UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PAHO Pan American Health Organization / UN RSMC Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres SSCS Storm Surge Calculation System SSHWS Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale TC Tropical Cyclone TCWC Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres UN United Nation UNITAR UN Institute for Training and Research WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization

26 List of figures Figure 1 - All TCs in the Atlantic basin (2010-2020)...... 6 Figure 2 - Atlantic hurricane seasons (2000-2020) distinguished by named storm (Vmax ≥ 63 km/h), hurricane (Vmax ≥ 119 km/h) and major hurricane (Vmax ≥ 178 km/h)...... 7 Figure 3 - 2020 Atlantic hurricane season: all TC tracks and max. GDACS alert issued...... 9 Figure 4 - 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season: TOP (Fig. 4a): Nr. of systems by intensity and max. GDACS alerts issued. MIDDLE (Fig. 4b): Total num. of TCs by intensity and month. BOTTOM (Fig. 4c): Comparisons between the cumulative number of systems of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the average (1966-2009) ...... 10 Figure 5 - TOP (Fig. 5a): Number of fatalities and people affected by TC season (2005, 2016-2020), and names of the most significant TCs of the season. MIDDLE (Fig. 5b) - Total number of named storms by season (2005, 2016-2020) and intensity. BOTTOM (Fig. 5c) - All TCs GDACS Alerts issued for the Atlantic Basin...... 14 Figure 6 - TCs in the Atlantic basin for the seasons 2005 & 2016 - 2020...... 15 Figure 7 - Relevant TCs in the Atlantic basin for the seasons 2005 & 2016 - 2020...... 17 Figure 8 - COVID-19 time evolution in Honduras affected by hurricanes ETA & IOTA ...... 18 Figure 9 - Typical influence of La Niña (TOP) and El Niño (BOTTOM) on the weather patterns (A-D) (see NOAA) and potential effects on the hurricane activity (E-F) ...... 19

Figure 10 - Multivariate ENSO Index (MEIv2.0, NOAA). The latest strong La Niña/El Niño events are highlighted.20 Figure 11 - ECHO Daily Map of 18 Dec 2020 prepared by EC-JRC on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season...... 30 Figure 12 - Detailed map on COVID-19 (as of 5 Dec 2020) & 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season...... 31

27 List of tables Table 1 - Average TC number by basin ...... 6 Table 2 - 2020 Atlantic hurricane season ...... 9 Table 3 - 2020 TC activity, averages, records, seasonal forecasts (extended-range) ...... 11 Table 4 - Relevant TCs in the Atlantic basin for the seasons 2005 & 2016 - 2020...... 17 Table 5 - GDACS Alert levels ...... 32 Table 6 - TC classification used in GDACS and in the report ...... 33

28 List of boxes Box 1 - Description of the deadliest events of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season...... 12 Box 2 - Description of the two deadliest events of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season...... 13

29 Annexes Annex 1. Detailed maps

Figure 11 – ECHO Daily Map of 18 Dec 2020 prepared by EC-JRC on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Fatalities 2020: preliminary data, HANNA and CRISTOBAL updated in Jan 2021; NOAA RSMC Miami TC reports were not available for all TCs)

Figure 12 - Detailed map on COVID-19 (as of 5 Dec 2020) & 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

31 Annex 2. GDACS TC Alerts Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous natural disasters, causing every year extensive damage and deaths in several countries around the world. They have three destructive effects (strong wind, heavy rain and storm surge). The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS, www.gdacs.org) provides the impact estimation of several different natural hazards, including all TCs occurring worldwide since 2011. A detailed description of the GDACS systems developed for TCs can be found at: https://www.gdacs.org/Knowledge/models_tc.aspx.

GDACS ALERTS

Green Alert Moderate event, International Assistance not likely

Orange Alert Potential local disasters, International Assistance might be required

Red Alert Potentially severe disasters, International Assistance is expected to be required Table 5 - GDACS Alert levels TC information: JRC set up an automatic routine that includes the TC bulletins produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) / RSMC Miami and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) into a single database, covering all TC basins. This information is used in GDACS for the wind impact and as input for the JRC storm surge system. In addition, JRC has developed several new tools for the analysis of the TC impacts and included new sources (NOAA Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast - HWRF and Global Forecasting System - GFS, global high-resolution model of the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast - HRES-ECMWF). → N Atlantic basin: NOAA-NHC RSMC Miami data Wind The GDACS alert levels for the TCs are based on the risk formula that includes: • TC wind speed (hazard) • Population affected • Vulnerability of the affected country The equivalent Category based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), 1-min sustained winds, is also indicated in GDACS (see Annex 3). The overall alert for a Tropical Cyclone is currently based on the wind effects. Storm Surge Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water above the predicted astronomical tides, generated by strong winds and by a drop in the atmospheric pressure. It was implemented in the JRC HyFlux2 code, used in GDACS to model inundation due to tsunami run-up (see Probst and Franchello, 2012). The new atmospheric sources (NOAA- HWRF, NOAA-GFS, ECMWF-HRES) are also used as input in the Delft3D code of DELTARES (see Probst and Annunziato, 2017). The GDACS alert levels are based on the maximum storm surge height: • Green: < 1.0 m • Orange: 1.0 m - 3.0 m • Red: > 3.0 m It should be noted that the estimation of the sea level is strongly dependent on the initial data (winds and pressure). The sea level changed according to each bulletin that was available. JRC is preparing a new alert algorithm that will combine all the effects (wind, rain and storm surge).

32 Annex 3. TCs Classification Tropical Cyclone is a generic term used to describe “a warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center” (see NOAA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#t). The distinction among the other terms is shown in Tab. 6. This classification is used in this report, as well as in GDACS, where the term “Category” represents the hurricane category and it is based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The SSHWS is the official scale used by NOAA-NHC (RSMC Miami) for the North Atlantic, Central and Eastern Pacific basins. It is a scale from 1 to 5, based on the hurricane's 1-min sustained wind speed and estimates the potential property damage.

Table 6 - TC classification used in GDACS and in the report, where the hurricane category from 1 to 5 is based on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - SSHWS (see NOAA-NHC79)

In this report, three additional terms have been used: ● Named storm: A specific “name” is assigned when the system reaches a tropical storm or higher strength (with 1-min sustained winds ≥ 63 km/h) and there is a predefined list of 21 names for each Atlantic hurricane season (six-year rotation). However, in 2020, there were 30 systems that reached at least tropical (or subtropical) storm strength, for this reason the Greek alphabet has been used for the additional storms. Only another time in history, in 2005, it has been used (see NOAA80, WMO81), but in the future a supplemental list of names will be used instead of using the Greek alphabet (see WMO82). ● Major hurricane: “Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered Major Hurricanes, due to their potential significant damage and loss of life” (see NOAA). ● Tropical disturbance: “Discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 h or more” (see NOAA).

More information can be found at: ● https://cyclone.wmo.int// ● https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php ● https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/hurricane.html ● https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml? ● https://community.wmo.int/classification-tropical-cyclones

79 NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php 80 NOAA: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/storm-names.html 81 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/natural-hazards-and-disaster-risk-reduction/tropical-cyclones/Naming 82 WMO: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

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30635

doi:10.2760/00114

ISBN 978-92-76-32177-4