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Hurricane Dorian eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Dorian Information from NHC Advisory 20, 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 29, 2019 On the forecast track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 85 mph Position Relative to 150 mi NNW of San Juan, PR Speed: (Category 1) Land: Est. Time & Region: Monday on Florida Min Central Pressure: 991 mb Coordinates: 20.5 N, 66.6 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 325 degrees at 13 mph 111+ mph (Category 3) Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Dorian passing east of the central Bahamas today and Friday, and approaching the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Dorian’s forecast track, Ï!D Trop Dep forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map in pale gray. ■ Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expectedÏ!S Trop Storm to become a 1 major hurricane on Friday. Ï! Ca t 1 ■ Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the central Bahamas, 4 to 8 inches in the northwestern BahamasÏ!D Trop Dep and coastal 2 Ï! Ca t 2 sections of the southeast United States Ï!S Trop Storm ■ Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting3 the east-facing shores Ï!1 Ca t 3 of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threateningÏ surfCa t 1 and rip current 4 conditions. !2 Ca t 4 Ï! Ca t 2 Forecast Track for Hurricane Dorian Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Dorian!53 Ca t 5 Ï! Ca t 3 NH C track !4 NHCÏ Ca t 4 CAT_ID !5 Ca t 5 Ï TD NHTS C track NHCCa t 1 Ca t 2 CAT_ID Ca t 3 TD Ca t 4 TS Ca t 5 Ca t 1 Watch/WarnTS Watch Ca t 2 Ï!D Trop De p All Fcst Tracks Ca t 3 al972016_multimod_atcf Ca t 4 Ca t 5 Ï!S Trop Storm TS Watch All Fcst Tracks al972016_multimod_atcf Ï!1 Ca t 1 Ï!2 Ca t 2 3 Ï! Ca t 3 4 Ï! Ca t 4 Ï!5 Ca t 5 NH C track © Copyright 2018 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether NHC electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled from third party sources and Willis Towers Watson Hazard and damage potential maps (as defined below) does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein produced by Willis are basedCAT_ID on numerical should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, modeling results from Kinetic Analysis subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC and all member companies thereof (hereinafter collectively, “Willis Towers Watson”). Willis Towers Watson is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and TD expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability, based on any legal theory, for damages in any form or amount, based upon, arising from or in connection with for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other Corporation. matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis Towers Watson TS accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites that are referenced. Ca t 1 The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards Ca t 2 modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the Ca t 3 information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Ca t 4 Ca t 5 All Fcst Tracks Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2019 Atlantic Season to Date 2019 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2019 year to date (1/1/19 – 08/29/19) 5 2 0 2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 08/29/18) 5 2 0 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2019 CSU season forecasts 14 7 2 (Colorado State University at Aug 5,‘19) 2019 NOAA season forecasts 10-17 5-9 2-4 (NOAA/CPC at Aug 8, 2019) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2019 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Dorian is the fourth named storm and the second hurricane of the 2019 The graph above shows 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlan tic Hurricane Season. Last year saw five named storms by August average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It 29 , including Hurricanes Beryl and Chris. shows, for example, that Dorian became the season’s fourth named storm on August 24. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both located about 400 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas. peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 29 is 74% for all The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post- hurricanes and 76% for major hurricanes. Tropical Cyclone Erin, located more than 200 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us 50% Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Mahesh Shinde roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] 40% +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 30% 2 20% 10% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.
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