eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Dorian Information from NHC Advisory 20, 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 29, 2019 On the forecast track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 85 mph Position Relative to 150 mi NNW of San Juan, PR Speed: (Category 1) Land: Est. Time & Region: Monday on Florida Min Central Pressure: 991 mb Coordinates: 20.5 N, 66.6 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 325 degrees at 13 mph 111+ mph (Category 3) Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Dorian passing east of the central Bahamas today and Friday, and approaching the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Dorian’s forecast track, Ï!D Trop Dep forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map in pale gray. ■ Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expectedÏ!S Trop Storm to become a 1 major hurricane on Friday. Ï! Ca t 1 ■ Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the central Bahamas, 4 to 8 inches in the northwestern BahamasÏ!D Trop Dep and coastal 2 Ï! Ca t 2 sections of the southeast United States Ï!S Trop Storm ■ Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting3 the east-facing shores Ï!1 Ca t 3 of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threateningÏ surfCa t 1 and rip current 4 conditions. !2 Ca t 4 Ï! Ca t 2

Forecast Track for Hurricane Dorian Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Dorian!53 Ca t 5 Ï! Ca t 3 NH C track !4 NHCÏ Ca t 4 CAT_ID !5 Ca t 5 Ï TD TSNH C track NHCCa t 1 Ca t 2 CAT_ID Ca t 3 TD Ca t 4 TS Ca t 5 Ca t 1 Watch/WarnTS Watch Ca t 2 Ï!D Trop De p All Fcst Tracks Ca t 3 al972016_multimod_atcf Ca t 4 Ca t 5 Ï!S Trop Storm TS Watch All Fcst Tracks al972016_multimod_atcf Ï!1 Ca t 1

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Ca t 5 All Fcst Tracks

Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2019 Atlantic Season to Date 2019 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2019 year to date (1/1/19 – 08/29/19) 5 2 0

2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 08/29/18) 5 2 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2019 CSU season forecasts 14 7 2 (Colorado State University at Aug 5,‘19) 2019 NOAA season forecasts 10-17 5-9 2-4 (NOAA/CPC at Aug 8, 2019)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2019 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Dorian is the fourth named storm and the second hurricane of the 2019 The graph above shows 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlan tic Hurricane Season. Last year saw five named storms by August average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It 29 , including Hurricanes Beryl and Chris. shows, for example, that Dorian became the season’s fourth named storm on August 24. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both located about 400 miles east-southeast of the southeastern Bahamas. peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 29 is 74% for all The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post- hurricanes and 76% for major hurricanes. Tropical Cyclone Erin, located more than 200 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60%

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us 50%

Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Mahesh Shinde

roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] 40%

+1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 30% 2 20%

10%

0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec