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Atlantic Hurricane Season 2020 - Atlantic Hurricane Season Past events, current situation, seasonal forecast and COVID-19 situation Pamela Probst, Alessandro Annunziato, Chiara Proietti, Chiara Fonio, Marzia Santini, Stefano Paris, Luca Giustolisi 2020 EUR 30259 EN This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC 121004 EUR 30259 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-19625-9 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/713400 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020, except: Fig. 2a, Fig. 2b, Fig. 9 (source: NOAA) How to cite this report: Probst, P., Annunziato, A., Proietti, C., Fonio, C., Santini, M., Paris, S. and Giustolisi, L., 2020 - Atlantic Hurricane Season: Past events, current situation, seasonal forecast and COVID-19 situation, EUR 30259 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Ispra, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-19625-9, doi:10.2760/713400, JRC121004. Authors affiliations: Pamela Probst, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Alessandro Annunziato, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Chiara Proietti, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Chiara Fonio, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Marzia Santini, European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Stefano Paris, FINCONS external service provider of European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Luca Giustolisi, FINCONS external service provider of European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 2 Past events (2015-2019) .................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Overview: Impact, frequency and GDACS alerts ....................................................................................... 8 2.2 Relevant past events ............................................................................................................................... 11 3 Current Situation ............................................................................................................................................. 13 4 Seasonal Forecasts .......................................................................................................................................... 15 5 TCs & COVID-19 ............................................................................................................................................... 17 5.1 GDACS & COVID-19 ................................................................................................................................. 18 5.2 COVID-19 current situation ..................................................................................................................... 20 5.2.1 Cases and fatalities ...................................................................................................................... 20 5.2.2 National containment measures ................................................................................................. 23 5.3 Potential effects of COVID-19 on the TC preparedness and response activities .................................... 23 6 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 25 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 26 List of abbreviations and definitions ..................................................................................................................... 29 List of figures ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 List of tables .......................................................................................................................................................... 31 Annexes ................................................................................................................................................................. 32 Annex 1. Detailed maps ................................................................................................................................... 32 Annex 2. GDACS TC Alerts ............................................................................................................................... 36 Annex 3. TC Classification ................................................................................................................................ 37 Annex 4. Humanitarian impact (2015-2019) ................................................................................................... 38 Annex 5. TCs & ENSO ....................................................................................................................................... 39 Annex 6. COVID-19 & TCs in the other TC basins using the new GDACS resources ........................................ 40 3 Acknowledgements Technical support: Daniele Brusa, Michele Tucci INFORM: Luca Vernaccini 4 Abstract The official “Atlantic Hurricane Season” (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) starts on 1 June and ends on 30 November. On average, 12 “named storms” (Tropical Storm or higher strength) occur each season, with an average of 6 becoming Hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes, while the climatological peak of activity is around 10 September. The Tropical Cyclones (TCs) could affect several vulnerable islands of the Caribbean area, causing damage and fatalities that could require international assistance from the humanitarian community. The past five seasons (2015-2019) have been analysed considering the TCs impact and the international humanitarian support provided. For the most significant events (e.g. MATTHEW in 2016, IRMA and MARIA in 2017, DORIAN in 2019), the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) issued a RED alert (at least three days in advance), timely alerting the international community. According to the official NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks, as well as most of the other seasonal forecasts published by other agencies, the TC activity for this season is forecasted to be above average. However, given the large uncertainty associated with the long term forecasts those estimations should be considered only indicative. NOAA will update its seasonal forecast in August 2020 before the typical peak of the season. This year the COVID-19 pandemic emergency is likely to affect the preparedness and response activities for the Hurricane season. It is therefore essential to consider it, adapting the evacuation plans and preparing people well in advance to follow new guidelines due to this multi-risks and complex situation. The guidelines might vary across countries, depending on the spread of the virus and the adopted containment measures. This report provides an update of the current pandemic emergency in the area and an overview of the guidelines issued so far. In this context, an Early Warnings System able to estimate the correct impact of TCs well in advance is even more essential for decision makers to take more informed decisions and make plans accordingly, also considering the potential effects of the climate change on the TCs activity. JRC is closely monitoring the
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