comment Compound climate risks in the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic will be an unprecedented test of governments’ ability to manage compound risks, as climate hazards disrupt outbreak response around the world. Immediate steps can be taken to minimize climate-attributable loss of life, but climate adaptation also needs a long-term strategy for pandemic preparedness. Carly A. Phillips, Astrid Caldas, Rachel Cleetus, Kristina A. Dahl, Juan Declet-Barreto, Rachel Licker, L. Delta Merner, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Alexandra L. Phelan, Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Shuchi Talati, Christopher H. Trisos and Colin J. Carlson

he COVID-19 emergency has acutely Floods Heat waves Wildfires overshadowed public reckoning with Tthe climate crisis; the outbreak is still growing in most places, with over three million confirmed cases in 185 countries Wildfires at the time of writing. The pandemic’s disruption of daily lives, health systems Hurricanes Typhoons and economies is unprecedented, and reverberations will continue long after the Locust Heat waves Cyclones first wave of infections ebbs and a vaccine crises is developed. As outbreaks continue, governments will be faced with developing Floods and adjusting policies that address not Droughts and water only the pandemic itself, but also potential scarcity Floods collisions and intersections with other regional or global crises. Bushfires A concerning body of evidence already indicates that climate hazards, which are Fig. 1 | Likely upcoming climate hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic. Climate-attributable risks are increasing in frequency and intensity likely to intersect with the COVID-19 crisis all around the world, with many already causing disruptions under climate change, are likely to intersect or likely to do so over the next 12 to 18 months. with the COVID-19 outbreak and public health response. These compound risks will exacerbate and be exacerbated by the itself or jeopardized sensitive public health extremely difficult to implement. In unfolding economic crisis and long-standing work. While the specific nature of threats Zimbabwe, drought has left millions without socioeconomic and racial disparities, both will change over seasons and regions (Fig. 1), access to clean water and at risk of acute within countries and across regions, in the overall problem is universal and should food insecurity during June–September ways that will put specific populations at be seen as a sobering signal of what lies 2020 (ref. 3). These impacts, as well as heightened risk and compromise recovery. ahead for countries all over the world. the power cuts associated with drought These burdens will fall disproportionately Storms, flooding and droughts are among in southern African countries heavily on countries in the Global South; United the most immediately apparent sources dependent on hydropower4, will affect these Nations Secretary-General Guterres has of displacement and disruption under countries’ response to the virus. noted that “...as with the climate crisis, the the pandemic. Fiji was hit by a category Furthermore, this upcoming year may be African continent could end up suffering 5 tropical cyclone during the onset of the the hottest on record5. Extreme heat events, the greatest impacts [of the COVID-19 outbreak; Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and like those already experienced this year in pandemic]”1. Tonga will also face challenges to recovery Florida and the southwestern USA, may This poses a tremendous policy under states of emergency while preventing lead to particularly high excess mortality challenge: while keeping climate goals and introduction of the virus2. The Gulf Coast and morbidity, and will likely disrupt power pandemic containment in sight, countries of the USA is bracing for a severe hurricane supplies, hospitals and emergency services, will face a drumbeat of climate adaptation season while the state of Louisiana has especially in cities. This is likely to severely crises that require immediate response and, become a national hotspot of COVID-19 impact persons already at high risk of ideally, advance preparation. mortality, in part due to a legacy of racial heat-related illness, including older adults, discrimination and underinvestment in those living in poverty (especially those who The compound risks healthcare. In South Africa, local authorities cannot afford air conditioning), those with Only a few months after the start of the are struggling with how to maintain social pre-existing health conditions, incarcerated COVID-19 pandemic, several climate distancing during flooding in informal people, the shelterless and persons with hazards have collided with the outbreak settlements where the policy is already mobility challenges or disabilities. Wildfires

586 Nature Climate Change | VOL 10 | July 2020 | 586–598 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange comment will also intersect with the COVID-19 In addition to acute emergency to address worsening impacts through response in the western USA over the responses, policy measures are needed the highly inadequate frame of disaster coming months, especially as the pandemic that ensure continuity of basic services. response. This means that there is still disrupts wildfire prevention measures Ensuring continuity of electricity, water far too little emphasis on pre-disaster and firefighter training programs6. This and other utilities will be critical to limit preparedness, and that the same agencies challenge is already apparent in Australia, loss of life during heat waves, wildfires and resources that manage disasters are where lasting health impacts from air and hurricanes11. Similarly, when water forced into attempting to build resilience pollution caused by an extreme bushfire agencies shut off service for non-payment to climate change on an ad hoc basis. season will likely exacerbate COVID-19 of bills — a situation more likely to affect Prepositioning adequate technical assistance morbidity7, and the outbreak will further those who live in poverty or have lost jobs and funding, and committing to automatic strain healthcare and the economy. during the current economic crisis — escalators in aid to cope with acute crises, On an even broader scale, a hand-washing becomes infeasible. In areas is vital. One successful example is the combination of climate and geopolitical of the Global South, wealthy countries Famine Early Warning System Network stressors are driving forced migrations8. must provide budget support both to (FEWS NET), a collaborative effort among Displaced populations, like those residing maintain these basic services in the near USAID, several US science agencies in refugee camps, are also uniquely at term and to invest in climate-resilient (NOAA, NASA, USGS and USDA), and risk from COVID-19 outbreaks because infrastructure to manage long-term risk. 28 countries to track conditions — like of living conditions that are incompatible Countries will need to develop detailed the COVID-19 crisis — that could lead to with social distancing and a lack of access plans for compound risk preparedness, acute food crises. Programs like FEWS NET to testing or healthcare. Pandemic-related taking account of regional differences exemplify multinational cooperation that border closures further exacerbate in climate vulnerability, the strength of is informed by scientific projections, uses these challenges. existing health and social safety net systems, a systems approach to develop solutions and outbreak trajectory. In all cases, and helps ensure ambitious action on a Policy actions to limit loss of life today governments and multilateral institutions scale commensurate with global risks. In this rapidly unfolding crisis, governments, responding to COVID-19, the climate crisis However, as the COVID-19 pandemic has health agencies and disease experts and their intersection must recognize that demonstrated, technical core capacities must take immediate action to confront interventions and guidance must be tailored alone are insufficient for preparedness COVID-19, but must also tackle inevitable to the unique vulnerabilities, needs and and resilience: any climate adaptation climate-related disasters to help minimize circumstances of affected populations. framework must prioritize equitable loss of life. Emergency response agencies outcomes and entrench good governance and first responders are particularly likely A pandemic preparedness strategy for and accountability. to find themselves deployed across multiple climate adaptation Furthermore, structural racism and crises simultaneously, putting them under The climate adaptation community must systemic inequities put people of colour unprecedented strain. As an example, in the develop a long-term strategy for pandemic and the economically vulnerable at USA, the Federal Emergency Management preparedness12,13, as COVID-19 is neither heightened risk in the face of both climate Agency (FEMA) is now tasked with the first nor only time that our globalized change and pandemics, a situation that coordinating the nationwide COVID-19 society will face these types of compound we are already seeing unfold. One policy response as well as any response to ongoing risks; for example, Puerto Rico was forced to address the structural inequalities extreme weather and climate-related to stop Zika surveillance and response highlighted under climate change and disasters, all while understaffed and in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. the COVID-19 outbreak is affordable under-resourced to do so. Current governance and institutional universal health coverage that rectifies Coordination is needed at every level of structures — and the risk frameworks inequitable access to both preventative government to prevent potential conflicts of used in the IPCC and National Climate (addressing potential comorbidities during strategy across agencies, sectors and scales. Assessment reports — are vulnerable to pandemics and climate-related disasters) For example, this spring, communities in the compartmentalization, especially in the and acute (ensuring rapid treatment Midwestern USA have faced the prospect of health sector. More interdisciplinary, during emergencies) care. In many places, evacuation due to flooding at the same time cross-sectoral risk assessments are needed, the current overlapping crises are laying as stay-at-home orders have been in place9, including planning for low-probability, bare pre-existing gaps in healthcare and and local emergency responders are urging high-impact events. These assessments social services that must be addressed. social distancing. In these and other exposed must explicitly consider spatial and Achieving the World Health Organization’s communities (for example, hurricane temporal coincidence of physical hazards goal of global universal health coverage zones or wildfire regions), difficult policy and health or socioeconomic risk factors, by 2030 is critical to reduce health system decisions lie ahead, including whether interdependencies between sectors (for vulnerability and to minimize long-term and how hospitals — especially intensive example, the food–energy–water–health health impacts of climate-attributable care units — can be evacuated safely, and nexus) and the potential for feedback events. In some countries, policy steps how to manage broader health risks in the loops. Solutions must similarly be more taken during COVID-19 may lay the event of large-scale emergency sheltering integrated and robust, taking into account groundwork for permanent expansion needs10. Given that federal disaster response interactions, trade-offs and co-benefits of healthcare in this direction; already, will likely prioritize evacuation and will across sectors and at different scales — and Ireland has nationalized healthcare leave local efforts to contain the resulting therefore across traditional jurisdictions for the duration of the pandemic. Solutions surges in COVID-19 cases, issuing formal of government agencies — under a range like these that centre equity, justice and updates to COVID-19 response guidance of scenarios. human rights will ensure resilience in for state and local authorities (for example, On the climate resilience front, many both climate change adaptation and covidlocal.org) will be critical. countries, including the USA, continue pandemic preparedness.

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Beyond universal health coverage and Carly A. Phillips 1 ✉ , Astrid Caldas 1, wmo.int/en/media/news/tropical-cyclone-harold-challenges- disaster-and-public-health-management (2020). 1 1 proactive climate resilience measures, both Rachel Cleetus , Kristina A. Dahl , 3. Zimbabwe famine early warning systems network. FEWS NET climate change adaptation and pandemic Juan Declet-Barreto1, Rachel Licker1, https://fews.net/southern-africa/zimbabwe (2020). preparedness can be framed as part of L. Delta Merner1, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida 1, 4. Conway, D. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 837–846 (2015). 5. State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for March 2020 2 1 countries’ legal obligation to realize the Alexandra L. Phelan , Erika Spanger-Siegfried , (NOAA, 2020); https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202003/ right to health through their laws, policies Shuchi Talati1, Christopher H. Trisos 3,4 and supplemental/page-2 and budgets. Under international human Colin J. Carlson 2 ✉ 6. Groom, N. Trump administration halts wildfre prevention tool in California over coronavirus. Reuters https://www. 1 rights instruments, such as the International Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-wildfres/ Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural USA. 2Center for Global Health Science and Security, trump-administration-halts-wildfre-prevention-tool-in- Rights (1966), countries have obligations Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington california-over-coronavirus-idUSKCN21X1HD (2020). 3 7. Wu, X., Nethery, R. C., Sabath, M. B., Braun, D. & Dominici, F. to respect, protect and fulfil the right to D.C., WA, USA. African Climate and Development Preprint at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05. health, including taking steps to prevent Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, 20054502v2 (2020). epidemic disease14. There is increasing South Africa. 4Centre for Statistics in Ecology and the 8. Abel, G. J., Brottrager, M., Cuaresma, J. C. & Muttarak, R. recognition that addressing climate change Glob. Environ. Change 54, 239–249 (2019). Environment, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, 9. Dahl, K. A. Continued social distancing critical for U. S. regions is a component of realizing the right to South Africa. where fooding and COVID-19 are set to collide. health: the Paris Agreement acknowledges ✉e-mail: [email protected]; Union of Concerned Scientists https://blog.ucsusa.org/kristy-dahl/ that in taking action to address climate [email protected] continued-social-distancing-critical-for-us-regions-where- fooding-and-covid-19-are-set-to-collide (2020). change, countries should consider, respect 10. Graeden, E., Carlson, C. J. & Katz, R. Lancet Glob. Health and promote their obligations on the right Published online: 15 May 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30191-1 (2020). to health. Robust global cooperation and https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0804-2 11. Graf, M. & Carley, S. Nat. Energy https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560- 020-0625-6 (2020). governance with a human rights-centred References 12. Marco, M. D. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 3888–3892 approach — supported by appropriate 1. Secretary-General’s remarks at virtual meeting with the African (2020). legal and institutional frameworks — is a Group. United Nations https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/ 13. Carlson, C. J. et al. Preprint at https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10 sg/statement/2020-04-15/secretary-generals-remarks-virtual- .1101/2020.01.24.918755v1 (2020). prerequisite for successfully confronting meeting-the-african-group (2020). 14. International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights these multi-dimensional, overlapping 2. Tropical Cyclone Harold challenges disaster and public health (United Nations, 1966); https://www.ohchr.org/en/ challenges with integrated solutions. ❐ management. World Meteorological Organization https://public. professionalinterest/pages/cescr.aspx

Climate-related fnancial disclosures in the public sector Expectations for the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure’s framework to drive climate action in the private sector are high, and there is growing interest in its relevance for guiding public sector climate action. However, consideration of the framework’s limitations is critical prior to public sector application. Ian Edwards, Kiri Yapp, Sam Mackay and Brendan Mackey

Task Force on Climate-related elements — governance, strategy, risk application to the public sector itself. Financial Disclosures (TCFD) was management, and metrics and targets — the For example, the city of Vancouver Aestablished by the G20’s Financial TCFD recommendations extend existing included TCFD-aligned disclosures in Stability Board on the premise that more frameworks by recommending disclosure its 2018 annual financial report as one complete and consistent disclosure of of material climate-related risks, risk mechanism for mainstreaming climate risk climate-related risks would encourage better governance and management processes, considerations into the city’s processes. decision-making and risk management by and resilience of the business strategy Further, legislation introduced by the New entities, resulting in a more stable financial under different climate-related scenarios. Zealand government in 2019 compels system1. The expectation is that disclosure By February 2020, the TCFD had drawn organizations, including the public service by entities of their climate-related financial over 1,037 proclaimed supporters, including and local authorities, to provide disclosures risks will enable the collective market to NGOs, corporations and stock exchanges2. on climate change adaptation consistent incorporate such risks into pricing decisions, Government support of the TCFD with the core elements of the TCFD. in turn imposing the market discipline recommendations has predominantly taken While the uptake of the TCFD among needed to transition towards achieving low the form of financial regulator endorsement both regulators and businesses represents carbon and climate-resilient targets. and consideration of associated regulation positive progress on climate action, The TCFD released its final for their use in private sector disclosures, application of the framework without recommendations in June 2017, to and considering regulation for the same. consideration of its limitations risks widespread attention and support. However, this support has extended suboptimal results for the private and public Premised on the disclosure of four core to consideration of the framework’s sectors alike.

588 Nature Climate Change | VOL 10 | July 2020 | 586–598 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange