comment Compound climate risks in the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic will be an unprecedented test of governments’ ability to manage compound risks, as climate hazards disrupt outbreak response around the world. Immediate steps can be taken to minimize climate-attributable loss of life, but climate adaptation also needs a long-term strategy for pandemic preparedness. Carly A. Phillips, Astrid Caldas, Rachel Cleetus, Kristina A. Dahl, Juan Declet-Barreto, Rachel Licker, L. Delta Merner, J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, Alexandra L. Phelan, Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Shuchi Talati, Christopher H. Trisos and Colin J. Carlson he COVID-19 emergency has acutely Floods Heat waves Wildfires overshadowed public reckoning with Tthe climate crisis; the outbreak is still growing in most places, with over three million confirmed cases in 185 countries Wildfires at the time of writing. The pandemic’s disruption of daily lives, health systems Hurricanes Typhoons and economies is unprecedented, and reverberations will continue long after the Locust Heat waves Cyclones first wave of infections ebbs and a vaccine crises is developed. As outbreaks continue, governments will be faced with developing Floods and adjusting policies that address not Droughts and water only the pandemic itself, but also potential scarcity Floods collisions and intersections with other regional or global crises. Bushfires A concerning body of evidence already indicates that climate hazards, which are Fig. 1 | Likely upcoming climate hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic. Climate-attributable risks are increasing in frequency and intensity likely to intersect with the COVID-19 crisis all around the world, with many already causing disruptions under climate change, are likely to intersect or likely to do so over the next 12 to 18 months. with the COVID-19 outbreak and public health response. These compound risks will exacerbate and be exacerbated by the itself or jeopardized sensitive public health extremely difficult to implement. In unfolding economic crisis and long-standing work. While the specific nature of threats Zimbabwe, drought has left millions without socioeconomic and racial disparities, both will change over seasons and regions (Fig. 1), access to clean water and at risk of acute within countries and across regions, in the overall problem is universal and should food insecurity during June–September ways that will put specific populations at be seen as a sobering signal of what lies 2020 (ref. 3). These impacts, as well as heightened risk and compromise recovery. ahead for countries all over the world. the power cuts associated with drought These burdens will fall disproportionately Storms, flooding and droughts are among in southern African countries heavily on countries in the Global South; United the most immediately apparent sources dependent on hydropower4, will affect these Nations Secretary-General Guterres has of displacement and disruption under countries’ response to the virus. noted that “...as with the climate crisis, the the pandemic. Fiji was hit by a category Furthermore, this upcoming year may be African continent could end up suffering 5 tropical cyclone during the onset of the the hottest on record5. Extreme heat events, the greatest impacts [of the COVID-19 outbreak; Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and like those already experienced this year in pandemic]”1. Tonga will also face challenges to recovery Florida and the southwestern USA, may This poses a tremendous policy under states of emergency while preventing lead to particularly high excess mortality challenge: while keeping climate goals and introduction of the virus2. The Gulf Coast and morbidity, and will likely disrupt power pandemic containment in sight, countries of the USA is bracing for a severe hurricane supplies, hospitals and emergency services, will face a drumbeat of climate adaptation season while the state of Louisiana has especially in cities. This is likely to severely crises that require immediate response and, become a national hotspot of COVID-19 impact persons already at high risk of ideally, advance preparation. mortality, in part due to a legacy of racial heat-related illness, including older adults, discrimination and underinvestment in those living in poverty (especially those who The compound risks healthcare. In South Africa, local authorities cannot afford air conditioning), those with Only a few months after the start of the are struggling with how to maintain social pre-existing health conditions, incarcerated COVID-19 pandemic, several climate distancing during flooding in informal people, the shelterless and persons with hazards have collided with the outbreak settlements where the policy is already mobility challenges or disabilities. Wildfires 586 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 10 | JULY 2020 | 586–598 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange comment will also intersect with the COVID-19 In addition to acute emergency to address worsening impacts through response in the western USA over the responses, policy measures are needed the highly inadequate frame of disaster coming months, especially as the pandemic that ensure continuity of basic services. response. This means that there is still disrupts wildfire prevention measures Ensuring continuity of electricity, water far too little emphasis on pre-disaster and firefighter training programs6. This and other utilities will be critical to limit preparedness, and that the same agencies challenge is already apparent in Australia, loss of life during heat waves, wildfires and resources that manage disasters are where lasting health impacts from air and hurricanes11. Similarly, when water forced into attempting to build resilience pollution caused by an extreme bushfire agencies shut off service for non-payment to climate change on an ad hoc basis. season will likely exacerbate COVID-19 of bills — a situation more likely to affect Prepositioning adequate technical assistance morbidity7, and the outbreak will further those who live in poverty or have lost jobs and funding, and committing to automatic strain healthcare and the economy. during the current economic crisis — escalators in aid to cope with acute crises, On an even broader scale, a hand-washing becomes infeasible. In areas is vital. One successful example is the combination of climate and geopolitical of the Global South, wealthy countries Famine Early Warning System Network stressors are driving forced migrations8. must provide budget support both to (FEWS NET), a collaborative effort among Displaced populations, like those residing maintain these basic services in the near USAID, several US science agencies in refugee camps, are also uniquely at term and to invest in climate-resilient (NOAA, NASA, USGS and USDA), and risk from COVID-19 outbreaks because infrastructure to manage long-term risk. 28 countries to track conditions — like of living conditions that are incompatible Countries will need to develop detailed the COVID-19 crisis — that could lead to with social distancing and a lack of access plans for compound risk preparedness, acute food crises. Programs like FEWS NET to testing or healthcare. Pandemic-related taking account of regional differences exemplify multinational cooperation that border closures further exacerbate in climate vulnerability, the strength of is informed by scientific projections, uses these challenges. existing health and social safety net systems, a systems approach to develop solutions and outbreak trajectory. In all cases, and helps ensure ambitious action on a Policy actions to limit loss of life today governments and multilateral institutions scale commensurate with global risks. In this rapidly unfolding crisis, governments, responding to COVID-19, the climate crisis However, as the COVID-19 pandemic has health agencies and disease experts and their intersection must recognize that demonstrated, technical core capacities must take immediate action to confront interventions and guidance must be tailored alone are insufficient for preparedness COVID-19, but must also tackle inevitable to the unique vulnerabilities, needs and and resilience: any climate adaptation climate-related disasters to help minimize circumstances of affected populations. framework must prioritize equitable loss of life. Emergency response agencies outcomes and entrench good governance and first responders are particularly likely A pandemic preparedness strategy for and accountability. to find themselves deployed across multiple climate adaptation Furthermore, structural racism and crises simultaneously, putting them under The climate adaptation community must systemic inequities put people of colour unprecedented strain. As an example, in the develop a long-term strategy for pandemic and the economically vulnerable at USA, the Federal Emergency Management preparedness12,13, as COVID-19 is neither heightened risk in the face of both climate Agency (FEMA) is now tasked with the first nor only time that our globalized change and pandemics, a situation that coordinating the nationwide COVID-19 society will face these types of compound we are already seeing unfold. One policy response as well as any response to ongoing risks; for example, Puerto Rico was forced to address the structural inequalities extreme weather and climate-related to stop Zika surveillance and response highlighted under climate change and disasters, all while understaffed and in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. the COVID-19 outbreak is affordable under-resourced to do so. Current