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Policy Brief

March 2007

The King Baudouin Foundation and Compagnia di San Paolo are strategic partners of the European Policy Centre

Balkans in : why, when and how?

By Graham Avery and Judy Batt

Background

When they met in in the Western needs to be onto the self-sustaining trajectory of 2003, EU leaders made a firm restated and firmly upheld. reform and EU integration pursued promise that “the future of the by the CEE countries in the . Western Balkans is within the Enlargement to Central and Eastern ”. Europe (CEE) was a huge success. Elsewhere, weak states struggle It demonstrated the transformative with distrust between ethnic groups, The EU’s existing Member power of the EU, putting an end poor governance, corruption and States have accepted these to a history of national antagonisms criminality. Political passivity and countries – namely , between these countries and dependence on external pressure Bosnia-Herzegovina, , driving their democratisation and are common characteristics. Political the Former Yugoslav Republic economic modernisation. It also will – the capacity to generate (FYR) of , , reaffirmed the fundamental value internal drivers of reform – seems and – as future of . to be lacking. As a result, questions members because: are being asked as to whether The ‘why’ the promise of EU integration I the Treaty says that any can really work for this deeply European state which respects Today, the countries of the Western troubled . its basic principles may apply Balkans need the same transformative for membership; power to work for them, after the Understandably, many in the I the EU has a historical and bloody conflicts of the 1990s that Western Balkans doubt the Union’s moral obligation to help the shocked European public opinion. political will to keep its promise. countries of the region; The EU has a moral and political They remember how feeble it I politically and economically, responsibility to keep the prospect proved in stopping the wars of the EU has an interest in the of membership open and credible. the 1990s, and how it failed to stability and prosperity of pay attention to the emerging crisis these countries. The Western Balkans are part of in . They fear that the Europe and, with the accession EU could fail them again. Talk of However, since 2004, several of and in January ‘enlargement fatigue’ keeps alive EU Member States have succumbed 2007, are now wholly surrounded uncertainty as to whether the Union to a bout of ‘enlargement fatigue’ by EU Member States, forming a is serious about its commitment to and European leaders are failing conspicuous ‘hole’ in the EU map. the region. to convince public opinion of the case for further enlargement. However, only Croatia has shown Enlargement to Central and Eastern The Union’s commitment to convincing evidence of moving Europe was recognised early as a strategic gain: ending the Cold of the aspirant countries. It is strategic vision and sustain War division of Europe brought neglected too often that the popular commitment to benefits that EU leaders could promise of EU membership for mutual promises. readily explain to public opinion. the Balkans was not made out In comparison, the arguments for of altruism, but for reasons of EU enlargement to the Western enlargement to the Western Balkans practical self-interest. Balkans is more challenging, and appear negative: if we don’t let will take longer, than for the CEE them in, we will be threatened by People in the Western Balkans, countries: the limited capacity an impoverished , moreover, are disappointed that of the region’s states means that wracked by criminality and the so little notice is taken of what they the Union cannot just set conditions ever-present threat of bloody have achieved in recent years – in and provide incentives, but has to conflicts, which means endless very difficult circumstances. help build the states themselves. costs to the EU in security missions and financial aid. The mood within the Union today The EU accession process, offering is neither natural nor irreversible. a ‘template’ for economic and Such arguments cement an EU citizens are capable of sympathy administrative reform backed by unattractive image of the Western and generosity, as their responses to financial and technical support, Balkans. Public opinion, especially war and its miseries regularly show. is the best available solution. There in older EU Member States, tends What is needed is leadership – both is no reason why it cannot work to see further enlargement as in the EU and in the Western for the Balkans as it did for other being mainly in the interests Balkans – to articulate a shared parts of Europe.

State of play

Much is at stake for the EU. It is not an applicant country to relax, by credible reassurances of its just a matter of avoiding the costs rather than reinforce, their readiness to move candidates and inconveniences of not enlarging preparatory efforts. We saw in along the path to membership as (significant as these would be) but the recent expansion to include soon as they are ready. The principle also of reaffirming the Union’s Bulgaria and Romania how the of ‘differentiation’ – that each confidence in its basic raison near-certainty of joining in 2007 country advances to membership d’être, its values and its purpose in reduced the leverage for reforms. at its own pace – must be upheld. the contemporary world. There is good evidence that But EU candidates do need to countries lagging behind are The ‘when’ set target dates for themselves motivated to catch up when for the purposes of government those advancing with reform In its 2005 report, The Balkans in planning, for setting priorities and more rapidly are duly rewarded Europe’s Future, the International sequencing reforms. A target date by the EU. Commission on the Balkans is also an important means of argued that the target date mobilising the broad national Setting a target is, of course, for accession should be set at effort needed and can be used no guarantee of actually hitting 2014-2015 – symbolically, a to hold governments to account it. What now has to be done? The century after war broke out in for progress. nuts-and-bolts of the process are in the summer of 1914. already clearly laid out in the But the EU is reluctant to decide Croatia has declared that its target Stabilisation and Association such dates: the European Council for accession is 2009, in time for its Process, which draws on the in December 2006 stated that people to vote in the next European successful experience with the “target dates for accession will Parliament elections. For the other CEE countries’ accession. not be set until negotiations are Balkan countries, which have not close to completion”. yet opened accession negotiations, The key challenge lies it is harder to make any predictions. elsewhere – strengthening the Experience shows that uncertainty Yet people feel the need for a firmer political relationship between about the precise date of accession timetable in order to believe that the EU and the aspirant Member is an important part of the accession will happen. States in the Western Balkans. conditionality of the accession Successful enlargement depends process: even an ‘indicative’ The EU’s refusal to give target on both sides; it is a partnership date may the authorities of dates needs to be complemented in which both must show political will and sustain mutual confidence. The EU’s 2007-2014 budget ...and on the Balkans’ side It is here that each side must disappointed those who expected do better. generous funding for the Western The Balkan countries should not Balkans. If the Union wants to be deterred by the EU’s current The ‘how’ – on the EU’s side... send a more encouraging attitudes. Ambivalence and signal to the region, some indecision on the part of Member First of all, the EU has to resolve additional funds should be States have always accompanied its constitutional impasse. Clearly, found in the budgetary review enlargement, as the CEE countries expansion beyond the EU-27, even planned for 2008. witnessed in the early 1990s. to include Croatia, will require But they did not waver in their agreement on institutional reform. The European Council of December resolve; they got on with reform The EU, in its own interest, cannot 2006 rightly emphasised the need and presented a case that could afford further drift: surely a solution to foster people-to-people contacts. not be rejected. can be found within the next two The visa regime has long been a years that will avoid a situation major source of Western Balkans’ In the Western Balkans, people where the Union is not ready to mistrust of the EU. How can the ask ‘why should we make these admit Croatia when the country ‘European perspective’ arouse painful reforms if the EU is not is ready. enthusiasm in people who are going to let us in anyway?’ But held at arm’s length by the EU? even posing this question sends None of the other Western Balkan the message that their societies countries will be ready for accession Visa facilitation is now in have not yet fully ‘bought into’ for some years more. Thus the EU preparation. Will this go far reform as a strategic imperative, has the time to digest the recent enough to make a significant necessary for themselves. People enlargements and renew itself difference to ordinary people, in the region need to drop the for those to come. especially students, scholars, and passive stance of ‘takers’ of businessmen? The Council of externally-imposed conditions The EU has not, in fact, failed Ministers now needs to deliver. and see that they can become to reward the progress made in ‘makers’ of their own future – as the Western Balkans. Since 2005, Enlargement to the Western partners, not subjects, of the EU. it has opened accession negotiations Balkans should be kept separate with Croatia, and accepted FYR from the question of ’s Nowhere is this truer than in Macedonia as a candidate. The accession. With a population relation to compliance with the Stabilisation and Association three times greater than the International Criminal Tribunal Agreement (SAA) with Albania whole of the Western Balkans for the former Yugoslavia. EU has been concluded, and SAA put together, and a geographic citizens find it unacceptable negotiations opened with location at Europe’s outer limits, that would-be Member States Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia Turkey poses quite different are unable or unwilling to meet and Montenegro. But these challenges. For the Western their international obligations positive messages have been Balkans, joining the EU is concerning indicted war criminals. weakened in various ways. imperative – without the European perspective, they The EU’s conditionality is more The visibility and impact of the EU cannot hope to achieve stability stringently applied today, with on the ground in Western Balkan and prosperity. more emphasis on implementation. countries needs to be enhanced There is no point in complaining so that it becomes a more effective The problem of ‘enlargement that this is ‘unfair’ to the Western communicator. The formation of fatigue’ should not be exaggerated. Balkans. The conditions are the European External Action Much of the EU’s malaise arises designed to prepare applicants Service, which would have from social and economic for membership, and rigorous improved its effectiveness, is problems at home, rather than monitoring should be regarded now on hold. Even so, it would enlargement. The Union, and as offering more support and help to increase resources and especially its Member States, guidance on how to succeed. staffing on the ground. The new must do better in explaining These countries should not CEE Member States have valuable how recent enlargements have want to join the EU as ‘second experience of transition and EU benefited the EU and why we class’ members. integration, as well as linguistic are committed to the Western skills that enhance effective Balkans. Stabilisation of the Regional cooperation is an area communication. These assets region is an agreed strategic where progress has been made. should be more extensively priority for the EU: it should not An Energy Community has been exploited. get ‘tired’ of such a priority. formed and a regional free trade agreement, the Central European It is now vital for leaders to show and cross-border cooperation Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), that they really want to make among local authorities. Showing was signed in December 2006. regional cooperation work, and to that ‘local ownership’ of regional The Stability Pact is about to overcome political and practical cooperation works will provide be transferred fully into Western obstacles. More support must convincing proof that the Western Balkan hands. be given to civil society initiatives Balkans are capable of integration.

Prospects

2007 will be a decisive year political recovery and integration political behaviour, when the for the future of the Western in the EU. Union has been an attentive, Balkans. It should see the supportive and fully committed settlement of Kosovo’s status: The Union is also preparing to partner. unresolved statehood and take over key responsibilities minority questions pose serious in Bosnia-Herzegovina as the Croatia needs to be reassured threats to democratisation and Office of the High Representative that the EU will admit it as soon reform, but if the Kosovo is phased out and replaced by as it has fully met the criteria. process is managed swiftly the EU Special Representative, Its accession should not be and resolutely, the result should who is already in charge of the difficult for the Union: public be durable stabilisation of the military and police missions opinion is favourable towards region, allowing energies to be on the ground. Croatia and, given its small refocused on EU integration. size, it will not be expensive. Serious questions remain about If Croatia is able to join in 2009 But there are inherent risks. the maturity of the political elites or soon after, this will show The settlement is likely to and their commitment to the EU citizens that enlargement disappoint both the Kosovar reforms that EU integration can work in the Western Balkans, and the . There demands. There are no ‘quick bringing benefits all round. is the potential for violent fixes’ for the conundrum of reactions, whipped up by Bosnian statehood. The Union’s The challenges ahead have to extremists but also reflecting commitment will need to be be confronted by both sides. social frustrations, grievances sustained with consistency and The EU and the countries of the and a sense of humiliation. patience. Western Balkans need to work together better in mustering The EU is about to assume FYR Macedonia, Albania and leadership and political will, responsibility for overseeing Montenegro have made some strengthening mutual confidence implementation of the settlement. progress towards the EU over and sustaining the momentum This places a premium on EU the past year, but not as much of enlargement. Successful EU unity and political will in the as might have been hoped. enlargement is a joint partnership coming months. This is due largely to political in managing the dynamic interplay polarisation, which diverts of politics within and between For several years, the Kosovo energies and weakens the the EU and the aspirant members. mission will absorb EU resources drive to reform. It takes both sides to make it work. and manpower. But attention must also be paid to Serbia, This is worrying in the current Graham Avery is Senior Adviser striking a balance between regional context: FYR Macedonia, at the European Policy Centre principled consistency and in particular, is vulnerable to and Secretary General of the generous flexibility. Serbia fall-out from a poorly managed Trans European Policy Studies needs the opportunity to Kosovo settlement, but so too, Association (TEPSA). recover its self-respect and potentially, are Albania and Judy Batt is Senior Research redefine its interests as a Montenegro. Yet in each case, Fellow at the European Union decisive contributor to the the perspective of EU membership Institute for Security Studies region’s economic and has shown its power to change (EUISS), Paris.

European Policy Centre I Résidence Palace, 155 rue de la Loi, 1040 Brussels, Tel: + 32 (0)2 231 03 40 I Fax: +32 (0)2 231 07 04 I Email: [email protected] I Website: www.epc.eu

With the support of the European Commission