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United States in Central & Eastern and the

How should the new US administration revive its allure in the ?

www..org Author ?

Dominika Hajdu Countries surveyed Research Fellow

Democracy & Resilience Center

Methodology

The outcomes and findings of this report are based on public opinion poll surveys carried out in September and 2020 on a representative sample of the population in nine countries: , Czechia, , , North , , , and . The Poland surveys were conducted on a sample of 1000 respondents using stratified multistage random sampling in the form of computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) due to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. In all countries, the profiles of the respondents were representative of the country according Czechia to gender, age, education, place of residence and size of settlement. Slovakia For the purposes of graphical data visualisation, the results were rounded to full numbers. To improve the readers’ experience, the responses in closed questions with a scale were generalised. For example, a question Hungary with options definitely agree/ rather agree/ rather disagree /definitely Romania disagree was merged to agree / disagree.

Serbia

Bulgaria

Montenegro

North Macedonia Introduction & According to the data recommendations collected, the US should:

The public image of the democratic , so too can Biden’s has suffered considerable setbacks “America is back.”3 1 https://www.pewresearch.org/ global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets- Invest in communication throughout the world following a internationally-as--say-country-has- poorly managed COVID-19 crisis Against this backdrop, this paper turns handled-coronavirus-badly/ towards the region and individual response and four years of an inward- its focus to the approach the US should 2 1 Ibid. countries through partners and looking, distrustful1 and unpredictable now pursue towards the Central and president.2 While this reputation loss and Western Balkan 3 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/ trusted voices p.06 compounds the challenge faced by . Based on opinion polls4 speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by- president-biden-on--place-in-the-world/ the new administration, it also opens conducted in October 2020 – at the up space for President Biden to define tail end of the Trump presidency – it 4 On a representative sample of 1,000 the United States on the international provides an overview of societal respondents from each country (altogether 9,000 respondents) including Bulgaria, Czechia, scene de nouveau. Just as President perceptions towards the US in the two Hungary, Montenegro, , Obama’s “Yes we can” moment in 2008 regions and suggests a path forward. Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia Use NATO, within which sparked a wave of across the the US is respected as a partner, 2 as a multilateral cooperation The countries surveyed can be put into four platform p.08 groups according to their overall affinities towards the US: Invest more in relationship-building Stable Middle-ground Sceptics Averse and broaden cooperation to areas proponents partners 3 beyond security p.11 Poland Czechia Slovakia Serbia Romania North Macedonia Bulgaria Hungary Montenegro

Revive close Each country in the region, however, is The end of the paper, moreover, distinct and their attitudes towards the Overall, respondents includes an overview of socio- cooperation US motivated by different factors. This supportive of the demographic variables (e.g. education, 4 with the EU p.14 leaves no single and straightforward US in all surveyed age or gender) contributing to the US approach that the US should take in a countries generally image in each country, information that rapprochement. The recommendations tend to be: can enable the development of more put forward here, consequently, effective and targeted communication reflect the overall survey findings, with • supportive of NATO and diplomatic efforts. country-specific information pinpointed • pro-democratic when relevant. • more sceptical of conspiracy theories Make use of • less pro-Russian the positive appeal • more educated.

United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the 5 of the new administration p.16 Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

4 5 ? 1 1 Which country do you consider to be 1 a strategic partner for your country?* United States

Invest in 69% Poland 6% communication 7% 50% Romania 6% towards the region 10%

29% and individual Czechia 21% 23% countries through 29% Montenegro 38% partners and 15% 28% North Macedonia 23% trusted voices 6% 18%

The survey data, elaborated on the The extensive influence efforts Bulgaria 41% page, indicate that a lack of strong directed by Russia and China towards 13% US engagement in the region, whether the region, undoubtedly, are also in a form of publicly expressed interest contributing to these patterns. These or communication strategies, might operations come in the form of, for 17% have had negative repercussions. example, economic support and How does it Slovakia 42% Only in Poland and Romania, two infrastructure (primarily countries that have long maintained China in the Balkans) and political compare to 14% pro-US attitudes, do an overwhelming relationship-building, media influence Europe? majority of respondents identify the and cultural (both countries). 16% US as a strategic partner. In five of From the Western Balkan nine surveyed countries, in fact, more An augmented US presence, countries, 18% Serbians, 31% Hungary 33% of Macedonians and 54% of people perceive Russia as a strategic therefore, is necessary in the region to 32% partner for their country than the US. counterbalance these moves including would choose In Hungary, meanwhile, twice as many in media and civil society support and the EU. was chosen people perceive China to be a strategic cultural diplomacy. as a strategic partner by 57% of 8% the respondents in EU member partner than the US. And in Czechia, Serbia 59% the US holds only a slight edge over states. 59% United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States Russia and China. Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

* Respondents were asked to choose max. 2 countries / groups of countries from the following list: 6 US, Germany, Russia, China, , EU (only for the Balkan countries). 7 ? 2 2 US is our ally and traditional partner within 2 NATO Agree Disagree Respondents who would vote to stay in/join NATO Use NATO, within which the US 90 88% 83 83

69 60 is respected 74% 73% 47 72 45 64% 63% as a partner, 58% 55% 51% as a multilateral 9 cooperation 34% platform

While a strong partnership with the US accustomed to multilateral cooperation consistent declines in public support is not the favoured choice for many in and now hold relatively stable for NATO membership since GLOBSEC 7% their bilateral relations, the opposite expectations of what is to come out of began polling this question in 2018. is true when it comes to multilateral it. They also attach greater trust in Poland cooperation within the NATO certain institutional designs where their 16% 20% framework. In all long-term NATO voices can be heard and gain backing 22% 23% member states (thereby excluding the from other partners in the region. Hungary Romania Balkan countries), a majority agree that Czechia 30% Bulgaria the US is an ally and partner within A lack of experience in and exposure to the Alliance. This robust finding, in the organisation could, meanwhile, be 62% of Slovakia 38% fact, even holds true in Bulgaria, a one reason that some members place respondents North country that has traditionally shown lessened prioritisation on the US role Macedonia 47% higher levels of support for Russia and within the Alliance. consider the US correspondingly less affinity towards to be the ally or Montenegro the US and NATO. Montenegro and Bulgaria maintain fragile memberships in NATO. This partner for their 5 In Serbia, the question was asked without a 62% NATO reference, only a degree of agreement As members of the organisation for is particularly heightened in the case country. with the statement „US is our ally“ was 5

United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States at least 15 years, these countries are of the latter, which has recorded measured. Serbia Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

8 9 Education as a factor strategic communications tailored to mainstream television channels, 2 influencing support tabloids and other outlets consumed by 3 for (the US in) NATO those with lower levels of educational attainment. On this point, Serbia is the Education ranked as a factor positively only exception, with more educated Education influencing support for NATO respondents indicating a greater 3 is a decisive membership in nearly all countries. preponderance of anti-US and anti- Individuals with university degrees are NATO views. factor in US generally more inclined to judge both perceptions in NATO and the US as an ally favourably 7 of 9 countries than those with less formal education. Invest more It could prove prudent, therefore, to surveyed. invest additional resources in NATO in relationship-

? Those who perceive the US as an ally building, broaden Low education High education cooperation to

91% 86% areas beyond 83% 79% 74% security 68% 69% 85% 61% Many in the region associate the US openness to greater US involvement with power, even aggressivity. in the region. Increased efforts and 57% 55% 55% This group is largely comprised of bilateral cooperation in non-military 53% 53% those sceptical of NATO, but even issue areas closer to people’s hearts, 51% among those who consider the US to such as technology, education and be an ally, a surprisingly large number climate6 could thus contribute to a 44% of respondents deem the US to be a gradual shift away from the perceptions 57% of 40% threat to their country or an aggressor of “military” or “aggressive” US. that uses NATO to control others. The much-maligned invasion of in Lack of trust in the US may, however, and 44% of 32% 2003 (where many Central European be also linked to the previous Macedonians governments risked their reputations administration’s unpredictable and by backing the initiative against the inconsistent approach towards Europe. believe the US wishes of their Western European This is evidenced by the fact that should play a counterparts) and its aftermath and the distrustful attitudes towards the US have more prominent NATO bombardment of in worsened throughout the , not 1999 both still resonate, especially in only CEE and the Balkans.7 role in their the . US engagement in region. the world is, consequently, primarily still 6 https://www.gmfus.org/sites/default/files/ seen through a military lens. TT20_Final.pdf

This legacy has witnessed societies, 7 https://www.pewresearch.org/ global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets- North apart from Romania and North internationally-as-most-say-country-has-

United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States Bulgaria Czechia Hungary Montenegro Macednonia Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Macedonia, shy away from expressing handled-coronavirus-badly/ Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

10 11 ? ? 3 3 Countries where the perception of the US Countries where the perception of the US as a threat is high: as a threat is low:

US is a threat (2019 polling) US is a threat US is not a threat US is a threat (2019 polling) US is a threat US is not a threat

81% 77%

70%

59%

49% 49% 50% 46% 46% 42% 41% 36% 30%

20% 19% 16% 13% 12% 10%

0%

Montenegro Serbia Slovakia Czechia North Macedonia Hungary Poland

The US is perceived as a threat because of…? The US is not perceived as a threat because of…?

In Montenegro In Slovakia In Czechia In Hungary

Its desire to be first and rule Expansionist proclivities, Czechia being too small Hungary being too small for the world desire to rule the world for the US to care the US to care Aggressive behaviour Destabilisation efforts and Threat General sentiment that the Constructive relations and Its efforts to control provoking of conflicts perception country is not under threat by economic ties and Romanians Montenegro through NATO and/ Aggression against other anyone Geographical distance or the EU countries and attempts to is also linked Constructive relations within difficult to Unjustified bombing in 1999 influence the internal affairs of to levels of NATO categorise. other countries Shared democratic values education in While only around 15% of all countries In Poland Bulgarians and Romanians perceive the US as a threat, at NATO alliance and In Serbia surveyed. the same time, 48% of Bulgarians partnership In North Macedonia and 43% of Romanians did not Unjustified bombing in 1999 Those with university education Poland being too small for the know how to respond to the Its desire to rule the world and are less likely to perceive the North Macedonia being too US to care threat question, which puts them dictate what others should do US as a threat. On average, small for the US to care Perceptions that the countries into a separate category in this A history of only bad there is a 19 percentage points Perceptions that the countries share good or fair relations regard. experiences with the US difference between respondents share good, fair or friendly Its preferable treatment to with university education relations over Serbians and and respondents with lower NATO alliance willingness to “take” education in the US threat from Serbia perception. United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

12 13 4 4 4 Revive close cooperation with the EU

The EU can also serve as a vehicle for More focused cooperation on issues that societies may facilitating non-military cooperation. As consider integral to prospects for a “better future” could evidenced through their perceptions both boost the US image in the two regions and bolster of NATO, Central and Eastern relationships with the EU. These issues include: European countries are accustomed to multilateral cooperation. The attitudes of these countries towards the EU, furthermore, are more favourable Stronger business ties and trade. 1 than those towards NATO. Any re-engagement with the EU could, consequently, also translate into a rapprochement with the region where Common anti-corruption stance and position 2 countries often view the EU as a means towards the protection of the rule of . to increase their voice and relevance.

The Balkans, similarly, view the EU in a A common stance towards multilateral more positive light than the US, with a 3 institutions like the WHO and WTO. majority of respondents believing that EU membership would mean a “better future” for the next . Shared policies on key foreign policy areas 4 important to the region, particularly China and Russia. On average, 75% of respondents

Consensus on combating information 5 in EU member states support EU The EU can manipulation and regulation of tech giants. also serve as a vehicle for membership and 72% believe facilitating non-military membership means better life cooperation.

United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States prospects for future . Balkans Balkans in CEE & the Western in CEE & the Western United States United States

14 15 ? 5 5 Who would you like to win the US presidential 5 elections? or Joe Biden? Joe Biden Donald Trump Don’t know Make use of the positive Poland 34% Biden

40% Trump

appeal of the new 26% Don’t know administration

Czechia In Slovakia and Czechia, according 57% Biden

to the survey, an overwhelming 21% Trump Slovakia majority of respondents expressed 58% Biden their preference for Joe Biden rather Who are the biggest fans 22% Don’t know 16% Trump than Donald Trump to win in the 2020 US Elections when asked in October. of Biden? 26% Don’t know The new administration should Romania constructively use the positive image of 33% Biden Hungary Joe Biden in the two countries. 30% Trump 40% Biden 37% Don’t know aged 35-64, aged 18-34, aged 25-54, 37% Trump

university education at least secondary university education, 23% Don’t know education urban areas Serbia 16% Biden 58% in Slovakia 59% Trump 25% Don’t know and 57% in aged 35-44, male, aged 25-34, aged 18-44, Bulgaria secondary education, university education university education, 26% Biden Czechia wanted rural areas urban areas Joe Biden Montenegro 18% Trump to win the 41% Biden 56% Don’t know election. 47% Trump N. Macedonia 12% Don’t know 32% Biden

aged 18-44, aged 18-34, female, 42% Trump university education, university education university education urban areas 26% Don’t know United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

16 17 Hungary

Age

The respondents aged between 18-34 years are more pro-US and pro-NATO than older . Country- Education Pro-US and pro-NATO attitudes rise with education in Hungary too. While 34% of respondents with lower by-country: education (elementary & secondary without final exam) see NATO as aggressive and a tool for the US Montenegro to control others, only 22% university-educated think the same. What changes the Age Urban-rural divide Pro-US attitudes decline with age. 56% of those aged 18-44 believe the US is an ally and traditional partner Those from rural areas tend to be less pro-US or pro- of Montenegro, compared to 43% of those aged 55+. view of the US? NATO. Education

Education plays a role in questions on threat perception and seeing the US as an ally. 54% of those with elementary education and secondary education without final exam see the US as a threat compared to Bulgaria North Macedonia 37% of those with university education. Gender Education Czechia Age Women are less inclined to leave NATO (47%) than Pro-US attitudes rise with the level of attained Macedonian older generation of 65+ is less supportive men (54%). education. For example, while 51% of respondents Age of NATO but 61% believe the US is their ally and with lower education believe the US is Bulgaria’s ally partner within NATO. The pro-US and particularly pro-NATO attitudes and partner, 68% of university-educated believe the gradually decline with age. same. Urban-rural divide 90% of those aged 18-24 years would vote to stay in Around a quarter of respondents with elementary NATO compared to 60% of those aged 55+. Those from rural areas are more supportive of both education, however, did not know how to respond to NATO and the US. 33% from rural areas would choose most of the questions. the US as a strategic partner compared to 25% of Poland Education respondents from the cities.

Age Education plays a strong role as well. Those with university education are by 25% more likely to be Education Large part of young people aged 18-24 did not know pro-US and pro-NATO than those with elementary how to respond to questions asked in the survey. Those with higher education are more supportive of education. 30% could not pick any strategic partner for Bulgaria NATO and have a lower feeling of being threatened and 57% could not say whether the US is a threat for by the US. 76% of respondents with elementary Bulgaria or not. Gender education would vote to stay in NATO compared to 95% of university-educated. Women have a slightly higher tendency to respond „don‘t know“. United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

18 19 Romania Notes

Age Serbia

The youngest surveyed generation (18-24 years old) is the most supportive of the US and NATO, Age the remaining generations have mixed feelings Serbia is the only country where the category of 65+ depending on a question. is the most pro-US and pro-NATO, rather than younger generations. 33% of those aged 65+ perceive the US Education as a threat compared to 60% of respondents aged 18-24. University educated are more pro-US and pro-NATO, but many respondents with elementary education did not know how to respond to questions. 60% of university-educated, for example, consider the US to be Romania’s partner and ally, compared to 34% of those with elementary education. 19% from the latter group, however, did not know how to respond.

Slovakia

Age

Pro-US attitudes gradually decline with age. 27% of from the group aged 18-24 years would choose the US as a strategic partner for Slovakia, compared to 11% of those aged 55+.

Education

Support for the US and NATO also rises with education. For example, 69% of university-educated believe the US is Slovakia’s ally and partner, compared to 53% of respondents with elementary education. United States in CEE & the Western Balkans in CEE & the Western United States Balkans in CEE & the Western United States

20 21

Collection of opinion polls in each country was coordinated by FOCUS, s.r.o.

Terminology used to identify regions in the report:

• CEE / Central and Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia

• Western Balkans – North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia

This publication was supported by the US Department and the National Endowment for .

GLOBSEC, the US Department of State and the National Endowment for Democracy assume no responsibility for facts or opinions expressed in this publication or their subsequent use. Sole responsibility lies with the authors of this publication.

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