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Home , Michael Dukakis

The Harris Poll

For release: Thursday AM, March 31, 1988 1988 #26 ISSN 0895-7983

CLEAR CHOICES FOR NOVEMBER ELECTION SHAPING UP By Louis Harris The contests for both major party nominations are not only taking shape rapidly, but could be all but over only six weeks after the turmoil of mid-February. It is strange to think that the catapulted Senator on the Republican side and Representative Richard Gephardt among 1)emocrats as the early frontrunners. Both are now retired from the race. Now, George Bush is the nominee of his party. As the legatee of , he is attempting to become the first sitting vice president to win the presidency since back over a century ago. He is also trying to win for the Republicans an unprecedented 20 out of 24 years occupancy of the White House. Both are tall orders. The Democrats, as always, are far less tidy than the Republicans. But they might well be in the process of coming to a decision faster than nearly anyone had contemplated. Gephardt made his last stand in Michigan this past Saturday. All indications are that Senator will make his in Wisconsin next Tuesday. Albert Gore is making a do or die effort in New York on April 19th, by attacking L for being pro-Arab in order to corral the populous Jewish vote in that primary. The last candidate to make this kind of appeal to the Jews in New York was in 1984. Hart was roundly defeated by in New York and that was the effective end of his candidacy. Governor failed in Illinois and Michigan, but then recouped some in his native New England in Tuesday's Connecticut primary. His supporters claim that Illinois was muddied because Simon was a white favorite son and Jackson a black favorite son in that state. In Michigan, the caucus system brought out an incredibly low turnout. In Connecticut, the primaries brought out a much higher turnout. In Wisconsin and New York, the next two primaries, the vote promises to be relatively higher. However, Wisconsin might well be muddied by the rather veiled but implied suggestion by Republican Governor Tommy Thompson to his fellow Republicans to cross over into the Democratic primary and vote for Jesse Jackson. If this is what Thompson meant when he praised Jackson, then it is an obviously mischievous ploy to trap the Democrats into either nominating Jackson in Atlanta next July or to force them to give Jackson a raw deal by denying him the nomination and thereby causing the black vote to sit home in November. On the surface, this might seem like hardball Republican tactics designed to bring pain and anguish to the Democrats. However, it could cause a backlash in Wisconsin, robbing Jackson of another major victory in a major Midwestern state. In fact, beginning with the Connecticut returns, it is entirely possible, even probable, that yet another process is likely to be taking place in Democratic ranks.. Jesse Jackson has put together a phenomenon made up of a nearly unanimous black vote, coupled with record high black turnout. It used to be that although blacks make up 11 percent of the entire adult population, they would never be more than 8 percent of the total voters on election day. The reason? Blacks just didn't get out to vote like whites. Now, all that is changing. In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate in 1986, the Republicans spent literally millions to get young white voters out to the polls. Among those 18-24 years of age, more say they are Republicans than say they are Democrats, having really experienced only two presidents, Carter and Reagan. But the GOP effort largely failed. By contrast, Jesse Jackson and a network of black ministers throughout the South made an effort to get young blacks out to register and vote. They increased blick turnout by as much as 15 percent, and that made the difference in five southern

( over 1 THE HARRIS POLL -2- March 31, 1988

states that gave control of the Senate back to the Democrats. Now, in 1988, in primary d after primary, Jackson is not only getting close to 100 percent of the black vote, but the black vote is coming out in record numbers. It is not inconceivable now that next November the black vote will be 14 percent of the total electorate, that blacks will vote in higher percentages than whites. This happened in both Philadelphia and Chicago mayoral contests in recent years. This means the black vote could be increasing from 8 percent of the total cast in 1980 to 14 percent in 1988. That could add a full 5 points to the Democratic column come November. This means that Jesse Jackson's effort in his quest for the Democratic nomination could help rather than hurt the Democrats' chances of winning the White House. However, that can only happen if blacks are motivated to come out to vote for a Democratic ticket that is neither headed by Jackson nor has Jackson on it. The chances are that as Jackson is viewed less as a symbol of protest and as a serious possible nominee, the Democrats will reject his bid. He is running behind George Bush by 60-36 percent, compared with Governor Dukakis running ahead of Bush by 50-47 percent. Senator Albert Gore runs 11 points behind Bush. While not inevitable, the signs are that the Democrats are thinking in terms of getting a winner in November. That could lead to a defacto agreement on Dukakis by the end of April, after the New York and Pennsylvania primaries. If that happens, then the stage would be set for a Bush-Dukakis race which at the moment is too close to call. (c) 1988 Creators Syndicate, Inc. 1554 South Sepulveda Blvd. +os Angeles, CA 90025 C