ABC NEWS POLL: CAMPAIGN TRACKING #11 - 10/27/00 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 9 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 29, 2000

Democratic Stalwarts Keep Gore in the Race

Blacks and Hispanics are keeping Al Gore competitive in the presidential race, while another traditional Democratic constituency – union voters – back him less broadly than he might like. Mobilizing this base is one of the factors that could make the difference in this very close contest.

George W. Bush leads by 10 points among whites – a group Bill Clinton lost, albeit much more narrowly, in 1992 and 1996 alike. And Bush leads by 22 points among traditionally Republican white Protestants. Gore, though, is supported by 87 percent of blacks, 66 percent of Hispanics and 55 percent of union voters.

That leaves swing voters, and they could hardly be more evenly divided: Independents split 44-43 percent between Bush and Gore; white Catholics, 45-47 percent. In the last five elections – since the network exit polls began – the candidate who’s won these two groups has won the election.

Bush Gore Whites 52% 42 Blacks 9 87 Hispanics 26 66

White Catholics 45 47 White Protestants 58 36

Independents 44 43 Union voters 40 55

Gore’s 15-point advantage among voters from union households is less impressive than he might like – it’s identical to Michael Dukakis’ margin among union voters in 1988, and Dukakis lost. In 1996 Clinton won union voters by 29 points, 59-30-9 percent. (There’s no comparable exit poll data from 1992.)

OVERALL – The overall race moved a titch tighter in the latest ABC News tracking poll: Bush with 47 percent support, Gore 46. Bush has held a slight numerical edge – one to five points – in all but three ABC News polls since Labor Day.

Gore Bush Nader Buchanan 10/27 46% 47 4 1 10/26 45 49 4 1 10/25 45 48 3 1 10/24 46 48 3 1 10/23 46 47 3 1 10/22 47 47 3 1 10/20 45 48 3 1 10/19 43 48 3 1 10/15 44 48 4 1 10/9 45 48 3 * 10/1 48 46 3 1 9/6 47 47 3 * (Full trend below)

60

50 Bush

40 Gore

30 The 2000 Election ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post Polls 20 Results are among likely voters

10 Nader

Buchanan 0

g ly u May Ju A Oct GENDER - The gender gap remains: Men favor Bush by 12 points; women favor Gore by eight. Women’s vote preference have been far more changeable than men’s all season.

That reflects one of the key issues in the race – size of government. Most men prefer smaller government, and that philosophical view sends them to Bush. Women are more divided on the question – which explains why more of them favor Gore, and also suggests why they’ve had more trouble settling on a candidate.

NADER – Ralph Nader’s supporters are still few and far between – he has four percent support (and Pat Buchanan, one percent). Removing them both from the equation makes no difference, a 49-48 percent Bush-Gore race.

But they are in the equation, and Nader’s supporters are well worth a second look. One reason: They might bail. Only 43 percent say they’ll “definitely” vote for Nader; twice as many Bush and Gore supporters are definite about their choice. And if it were a two-man race, Nader supporters say they’d pick Gore over Bush by more than 2-1.

Because they include thousands of interviews, tracking polls make it possible to analyze small subsets of voters. Nader voters, as their second-choice preferences would suggest, are a more Gore-friendly than Bush-friendly group: There are many liberals and few Republicans or conservatives in their ranks. (There also are more independents, more young adults and more men.)

In an election this close, if it stays this close, every group matters. And given their self- expressed moveability, that most certainly includes those who currently favor Nader.

Size of Group Nader Supporters All Likely Voters Men 55% 48% Women 45 52

Liberal 39 20 Moderate 42 40 Conservative 15 37

Democrats 33 38 Republicans 8 34 Independents 47 23

METHODOLOGY - This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 25-27, 2000 among a random national sample of 1,009 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Analysis by Gary Langer.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/PollVault/PollVault.html

Here are the full results (* is less than 0.5 percent.). Call for full trend.

3. The candidates in November's presidential election are (Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats,) (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke of the Green Party) and (Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster of the Reform Party). If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - (Gore), (Bush), (Nader) or (Buchanan)?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/27/00 46 47 1 4 * 1 * 2 10/26/00 45 49 1 4 * * * 2 10/25/00 45 48 1 3 * * * 2 10/24/00 46 48 1 3 1 0 * 2 10/23/00 46 47 1 3 * 0 * 2 10/22/00 47 47 1 3 * * * 2 10/21/00 45 48 1 3 * * * 2 10/20/00 45 48 1 3 * * * 2 10/19/00 43 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/18/00 44 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/17/00 43 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/15/00 44 48 1 4 1 * * 3 10/9/00 45 48 * 3 * 1 * 2 10/1/00 48 46 1 3 1 * * 2 9/6/00 47 47 * 3 1 1 0 2 8/20/00 48 44 2 3 1 * * 1 8/10/00 42 50 2 5 * * * 1 8/6/00 37 52 3 5 * 0 * 2 7/29/00 37 52 2 7 1 1 * 1 7/23/00 38 46 6 8 1 * 1 1 6/11/00 43 48 3 3 1 * * 2 5/10/00 38 48 5 5 2 0 * 2

4. Do you support (Gore/Bush/Buchanan/Nader) strongly, or not strongly?

------Gore------Bush------Nader*----- Strng Not No op. Strng Not No op. Strng. Not No op. Likely Voters: 10/27/00 82 17 1 83 15 2 68 30 1 10/26/00 81 18 1 81 17 1 68 31 2 10/25/00 79 20 1 81 17 1 10/24/00 80 18 1 80 18 2 10/23/00 78 20 2 81 17 2 10/21/00 76 22 2 84 15 1 10/20/00 77 21 2 85 14 1 10/19/00 80 18 1 84 15 1 10/18/00 81 17 2 82 16 1 10/17/00 81 18 1 82 16 1 *Includes aggregated data from all tracking waves to date.

5. Will you definitely vote for (Gore/Bush/Nader/Buchanan) in November, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? Is there a good chance you'll change your mind or would you say it's pretty unlikely?

10/27/00 Likely Voters: ------Change mind------Definitely vote Good chance Unlikely No opinion Gore 85 6 8 1 Bush 88 6 6 1 Nader* 43 37 14 6 *Includes aggregated data from all tracking waves to date.

6. If the only candidates were (Gore) and (Bush), who would you vote for?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/27/00 48 49 1 * 1 1 10/26/00 47 51 * 0 1 1 10/25/00 48 50 * 0 1 1 10/24/00 48 49 1 0 * 1 10/23/00 49 49 1 1 1 1 10/22/00 49 48 1 1 1 1 10/21/00 48 49 * 0 1 2 10/20/00 47 49 1 0 1 2 10/19/00 45 50 1 0 2 2 10/18/00 46 49 1 0 2 2 10/9/00 46 50 1 * 1 1

***END***