Voters Overwhelmingly Positive On

The Harris Poll

For release: Sunday AM, July 17, 1988 1988 W57 ISSN 0895-7983

VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE ON DUKAKIS NOMINATION: GOVERNOR RATED MORE PCSJTIVELY THAN BUSH ON LEADERSHIP SCALE By Louis Harris As Governor Michael Dukakis prepares for his nomination as the Democratic candidate for President, he is more positively perceived by the voters than nearly any Democrat in many years. For example, a substantial 77-17 percent majority of the voters say they feel positive about his upcoming nomination this week in Atlanta. Even a 66-26 percent majority of Republicans say they are reacting positively to his being named, as does a higher 81 percent of Democrats who left their party four years ago to vote for the President. A just finished Harris Poll, taken by telephone between July 7th and 12th, asked a cross section of 1,252 voters nationwide to rate the two current candidates and Presidents Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, and John F. Kennedy as "leaders," on a scale of 1 to 10, with one the most negative and 10 the most positive. These results reveal how well Dukakis stands on the eve of the Democratic convention:

L -- A dramatically high 81-15 percent come up positive on President Kennedy as a leader. -- A substantial 65-34 percent are positive about Ronald Reagan as a leader. -- Close behind Reagan comes Dukakis, rated positively as a leader by a 55-38 percent margin. -- Vice President George Bus\ emerges on this same measurement at 50-47 percent negative. -- Finally, the American people give President Jimmy Carter a 61-37 percent negative rating on his leadership capabilities. These results are revealing, for they point up the fact that Kennedy clearly is viewed as a model of what presidential leadership should be, with Reagan up there but not in the same league. Jimmy Carter brings up the rear. Dukakis' showing is significant because for a person about whom most voters know relatively little, he obviously is scoring well, coming up with a positive response by a convincing 17 point margin. By contrast, George Bush is negatively perceived by a narrow 3 point margin. The key group differences across the country are also significant, with Dukakis outscoring Bush in every region, including the South, where the prospective Democratic nominee is 54-39 percent positive, while Bush is 53-43 percent positive. In the West, Dukakis is 50-42 percent positive, while Bush is viewed negatively as a leader by 55-40 percent. In the East, Dukakis comes up 59-35 percent positive and Bush 54-43 percent negative. Finally, in the Midwest, Dukakis is 55-38 percent positive, while Bush is 49-47 percent negative. BY any measure, Michael Dukakis is riding high in esteem, while George Bush seems flawed. Bush is not as negatively perceived as Jimmy Carter, but is also far behind - Reagan and the ultimate point of comparison, John F. Kennedy.

( over ) THE HARRIS POLL July 17, 1988

TABLES Between July 7th and 12th, the Harris Poll asked a nationwide cross section of d 1,252 voters by telephone: "The week after next, the Democrats will meet in Atlanta, where Governor Dukakis will be nominated for President. How do you feel about the nomination of Governor Dukakis by the Democrats -- positive or negative?" DUMIS NOMINATION Not Pcritive Negative Sure % % %

rnAL Republican Democrat Independent "How would you rate (READ EACH NAME) as a leader, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the worst and 10 the best?" RATINGS OF VARIOUS LEADERS Not (**)Positive Negative Sure % % % Former President Kennedy President Reagan Governor Dukakis Vice President Bush Former President Carter (**)Positive = 6-10 on the scale Negative = 1-5 on the scale METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between July 7th and 12th, among a cross section of 1,252 voters nationwide. Voters are defined as those adults who voted in the 1984 presidential election, or who are now 18 to 20 years of age and say they are absolutely or probably certain to vote in the 1988 presidential election. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.