Race for President Narrows, Bush-Quayle Lead by 50-48 Percent

The Harris Poll

For release: Thursday AY., October 13, 1988 1988 ~83 ISSN 0895-7983

RACE FOR PRESIDENT NARROWS) BUSH-QUAYLE LEAD BY 50-48 PERCENT

By Louis Harris Follo...·ing the big 64-25 percent victory for Lloyd Bentsen over Dan Quayle in their debate last week, the race for the White House has narrowed marginally, with the Bush-Quayle Republican ticket holding a close 50-48 percent lead over the Democratic combination of Dukakis-Bentsen. When just Bush and Dukakis are paired against each other, the Bush margin rises to 50-46 percent. However, when the same cross section of likely voters is asked on a party basis, whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for president, the Democrats come out on top by 48-46 percent.

All of this, along with other results from this latest Harris Poll, conducted by telephone between October 6th and 10th among a representative cross section of 1,999 adults nationwide, of whom 1,355 might be voters in November, suggests that 1988 might well end up as one of the closest presidential contests in recent years, reminiscent of the 1960 contest between Kennedy an:: Nixon or the 1968 election between Humphrey and Nixon. On a regional basis, the race has tightened everywhere. In the East, Dukakis is ahead now by a close 50-48 percen~, and in the Midwest by 50-47 percent. However, Bush leads in the South by 52-46 percen~, and is ahead in the West by 51-47 percent. In the biggest 11 states of the country, where the election is likely to be settled, Dukakis is ahead by 50-48 percent. In the largest 8 states outside the South, Dukakis leads by 50-47 percent. While the regional races have tightened, among key sub-segments of the electorate, polarization has no ...· beg-.;,n to set in. This is not unusual as election day approaches. -- For example, in the cities, Dukakis has now moved out to a 58-40 percent lead, while in the suburbs, Bush now is ahead by 55-43 percent. In small towns and rural areas, Bush is also ahead by a closer 52-45 percent.

The gender gap is running strong again, with men going for Bush-Quayle by 54-44 percent, but women going for Dukakis-Bentsen by 53-45 percent. Conservatives are now going heavily for Bush by 70-28 percent, While liberals are for Dukakis by 81-17 percent. Moderates in the middle are also for DukAkis by 52-46 percent.

Another sign of the closeness of the race is evident when voters are asked if they believe each presidential candidate "has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have. ,. For Bush, a 58-40 percent majority thinks he has those qualities. For Dukakis, a 59-38 percent majority thinks he possesses those characteristics.

On this kame question, Senator Lloyd Bentsen comes up with a 62-28 percent majority who think he has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have -- higher than either of the actual nominees for the top job. By contrast, however, a 60-31 percent majority does not think Senator Dan Quayle has these key qualities that a president should have.

Clearly, the election appears to be as close to a dead heat as could be on the eve of tonight's final debate. If one man or the other breaks out tonight, it might prove to be enough to determine the outcome on November 8th. (over) THE HARRIS POLL -2- October 13, 1988

T 11 B L E S

Between October 6th and 10th, the Harris Poll asked 1,355 voters, screened from a representative cross section of 1,999 adults, by telephone: "All in all, if you had to say, who do you think did better overall in the vice presidential debate -- Senator Lloyd Bentsen, the Democratic candidate for vice president, or Senator Dan Quayle, the Republican candidate for vice president?"

BENTSEN OR QUAYLE WIN DEBATE

Bentsen 64 Quayle 25 Neither (vol.) 7 Not sure 4 "If you had to choose, would you vote for the Republican ticket of Bush for President and Quayle for Vice President or the Democratic ticket of Dukakis for President and Bentsen for Vice President?"

BUSH-QUAYLE VS. DUKAKIS-BENTSEN

Bush- Dukakis- Not Quayle Bentsen Sure % % ~

TOTAL 50 48 2

East 48 50 2 Midwest 47 50 3 South 52 46 2 West 51 47 2

Big 11 states 48 50 2 Big 8 northern states 47 50 3

Cities 40 58 2 Suburbs 55 13 2 Towns-rural 52 45 3

Men 54 44 2 Women 45 53 2

Conservative 70 28 2 Moderate 46 52 2 Liberal 17 81 2

"This November for president, it will be Vice President George Bush for the Republicans and Governor Michael Dukakis for the Democrats. If you had to choose right now, would you be for Bush or Dukakis?"

BUSH VS. DUKAKIS

Bush 50 Dukakis 46 Not sure 4

"In this year's presidential election, if you had to choose right now would you vote for the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate?"

(continued) THE HARRIS POLL -3- October 13, 1988

DEMOCRAT VS. REPUBLICAN

Democrat 48 Republican 46 Other party (vol.) 1 Not sure 5 "I will read you some statements about Vice President Bush. For each, tell me if you agree or disagree." BUSH HAVE PERSONALITY AND LEADERSHIP QUALITIES

Disagree %

He has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have 58 40 2 "Let me read you some statements about Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts. For each, tell me if you tend to agree or disagree."

DUKAKIS HAVE PERSONALITY AND LEADERSHIP QUALITIES

Not Disagree Sure % -%

He has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have 59 38 3 "Do you agree or disagree that (READ EACH ITEY.) has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have?"

BENTSEN AND QUAYLE HAVE PERSONALITY AND LEADERSHIP QUALITIES

Not Disagree Sure % -%

Senator Lloyd Bentsen 62 28 10 Senator Dan Quayle 31 60 9

MET HOD 0 LOG Y

This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 6th and 10th, among 1,355 voters screened from a representative cross section of 1,999 adults nationwide. Voters are defined as those adults who voted in the 1984 presidential election, or who are now 18 to 20 years of age and say they are absolutely or probably certain to vote in the 1988 presidential election. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.