The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Joost Van Roost, ExxonMobil Benelux Deloitte Dutch Oil & Gas Conference Rotterdam, June 25, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
15 demand sectors
20 fuel types
technology & policy
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global Progress Drives Demand
Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 21 120 1400 Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 18 0.8% 2.8% 1200 1.0% 100
15 1000 80 Energy Saved 12 800 ~500 60 9 600
40 6 400 Non OECD 20 3 200
OECD 0 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 300 2040
2025 250 Electricity Demand
200 2010
150
100
50
0 Electricity Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Generation
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Transportation Transportation Demand
Sector Demand Demand by Region MBDOE MBDOE 75 30 Rail ‘40 25 60 Marine
Aviation ‘25 20 45
15 Heavy Duty ‘10 30 10
15 Light Duty 5
0 0 2000 2020 2040 AP NA Europe LA ME ROW
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles
500 204020252010
400 PHV/EV Advanced* Full Hybrid CNGCNG 300 LPGLPG Conv.Diesel Diesel Conv Conv.Mogas Gasoline Conv 200
100
0 North Europe Other China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD OECD America OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles Europe Transportation Demand
Transportation Light Duty Vehicle Fleet MBDOE Million Cars CNG/LPG 10 300 Rail PHV/EV
Marine 250 8 Hybrid Aviation 200 Conv. Diesel 6 150 Heavy Duty 4 100
2 50 Light Duty Conv. Gasoline
0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Electricity generation Electricity Demand by Region
Non OECD OECD Thousand TWh Thousand TWh 25 25
Other Non OECD
20 Russia/Caspian 20 Southeast Asia
15 15 Middle East Africa Other OECD 10 10 India Europe OECD
5 5 China North America
0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region
Electricity Generation Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040 Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 300 120
Renewables 250 90 Renewables
Nuclear 200 Non OECD Nuclear 60
150 Gas Coal 30 100 Coal 0 50 Oil OECDGas
0 Oil -30 2000 2020 2040 Non OECD OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Europe Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Thousand Terawatt Hour Quadrillion BTUs 5 35
Other Renewables Transportation 30 4 Wind & Solar 25 Commercial Biomass 3 20 Nuclear
Residential 15 2
Other Industry 10 Coal 1 5 Heavy Industry Gas
Oil 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Economic Choices for Europe Electricity
Baseload, Startup 2030 2012 Eurocents/kWh
20 $60/ton of CO2
16 Reliability Cost 12
8
4 $0/ton
0 Coal Gas Nuclear Onshore Solar PV Wind* Utility*
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Renewables Gain Share
United States Europe Asia Pacific Percent of TWh Percent of TWh Percent of TWh 45 45 45 Solar 40 Geothermal 40 40 Biomass/Other 35 Wind 35 35 Hydro 30 30 30
25 25 25
20 20 20
15 15 15
10 10 10
5 5 5
0 0 0 '10 '20 '30 '40 '10 '20 '30 '40 '10 '20 '30 '40 *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
225 0.8% 2040 Average Growth / Yr. 200 1.7% 2010 - 2040
175 2010 1.0% 150 -0.1% 125
100
75 2.4% 0.4% 50 5.8% 1.8% 25
0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Hydro / Geo Biofuels
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy CO2 Emissions Plateau
By Region Emissions Per Capita Billion Tons Tons per Person
40 20
30 Rest of Non OECD 15
India 20 10
China ‘25 ‘10 ‘40 10 5
OECD
0 0 2000 2020 2040 China India U.S. Europe
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Europe Energy Demand and Supply
By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 100 100
80 80 Other Renewables Res/Comm Biomass 60 Industrial 60 Nuclear
Coal
40 40 Electricity Gas Generation
20 20 Oil Transportation
0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Europe Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
By Sector By Fuel Billion Tons Billion Tons 5 5
4 4
Res/Comm Coal 3 3 Industrial
Gas 2 Electricity 2 Generation
1 1 Transportation Liquids
0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Supply Liquids Supply
Supply by Type Resource* MBDOE TBO 120 Biofuels 6 Other Liquids
100 5 NGLs
Oil Sands 80 Tight Oil 4 Remaining Deepwater Resource
60 3
40 2 Conventional Crude & Condensate Cumulative 20 1 Production
0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy * Source: IEA Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts
North America Gas Supply Global Gas Supply BCFD BCFD 120 600
LNG Rest of World 100 500 Unconventional
North America 80 400 Unconventional
60 Local 300 Unconventional Rest of World 40 200 Conventional
20 100 Local Conventional North America Conventional 0 0 2010 2025 2040 2010 2025 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at current demand 6.2
4.3 1.6 4.9
Europe Russia/ OECD Caspian* North America 4.5
1000 TCF Middle East 30 25 2.6 2.5 Asia Pacific 20 Unconventional 15 Africa 10 Latin America Conventional 5 0 World
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies
North America Europe Asia Pacific BCFD BCFD BCFD 175 175 175
150 150 150
125 125 125
LNG 100 100 100
75 Unconventional 75 75
50 50 50 Local Production Pipeline 25 25 25 Conventional 0 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Hydraulic Fracturing Shale Gas: Demonstrate Responsibility
Water Aquifers
Demonstrate Responsibility Local Area Ground Shale Gas Production Process
Uses two established technologies: horizontal drilling (1960s+) and hydraulic fracturing (1950s+)
• Both widely used in Europe for decades
Shale reservoirs are generally 2,000m to 4,000m below surface
Water, sand and additives are pumped at pressure into the shale, opening up hairline fractures that allow gas to flow
Thousands of meters of impermeable rock separate fractures from drinking water aquifers
Shale Fractures cannot propagate to the Source: Total surface Aquifer Protection
Multiple layers of steel • Aquifers protected by several layers of steel casing and cement and impermeable cement
• No different from a conventional oil or gas well, or geothermal well
Steel casings
5cm cement
Source: Total Shale
Source: OGP Opportunities: Economic Benefits
Henry Hub = virtual trading location USA JAPAN (natural gas pipeline system in Erath, NBP = National Balancing Point Louisiana ) virtual trading location UK
JLNG = Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price
EUROPE
US
Sources: Platts, ICIS ESGM Heren Report and Waterbourne Liquefied Natural Gas
Adriatic LNG Terminal LNG Supply
Source: IHS CERA Disclaimer: No portion of this slide may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written CERA consent
Europe LNG Supply Potential
BCM
Pacific Supply
ME Supply Net LNG Available to Europe
Atlantic Supply 170 BCM 50 BCM 120 BCM
Significant volumes of LNG available to Europe 2015 – 2030 50 BCM 2015 (~10% Demand) to 170 BCM in 2030 (~ 25% Demand)
Source: WoodMackenize Research (1H 2012 – Gas & Power Tool)