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2019 OUTLOOK for ENERGY: 2018 Outlook Fora Energy: PERSPECTIVE a View to 2040 to 2040

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2019 OUTLOOK for ENERGY: 2018 Outlook Fora Energy: PERSPECTIVE a View to 2040 to 2040 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY: 2018 Outlook forA Energy: PERSPECTIVE A View to 2040 TO 2040 David Khemakhem November 20, 2019 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we include a number of third party scenarios such as the EMF 27 scenarios and the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2018 and the first half of 2019. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, and other ‹#› factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY How we develop our Outlook ExxonMobil uses a data-driven approach to understand potential future energy demand and supply. EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY DEMAND: POLICY. TECHNOLOGY. CONSUMER PREFERENCES. THREE DRIVERS All three impact how the world uses energy. 3 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Energy is essential for society's progress U.N. 2017 Human Development Index THE SIZE OF THE CIRCLES DEPICTS RELATIVE SIZE OF POPULATION ~50% World Population 2015 Energy Demand per Capita (1000 BTU/person/day) Source U.N. Human Development Reports 2018, World Bank DataBank 2019, EM analyses, updated 9/11/2019 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Energy trends vary by sector and geography Global energy demand by sector Global energy demand by region Primary energy – Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 750 Growth '17-'40 Residential/Commercial India China Industrial 500 Other Non-OECD Electricity Generation 250 Light-duty Transportation OECD Commercial Transportation 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Global energy demand and supply Global energy demand by sector Global energy demand by fuel Primary energy – Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Growth '17-'40 Residential/Commercial IndustrialIndustrial Electricity Generation Electricity Generation Light-duty Transportation Commercial Transportation Transportation EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Electricity grows across all regions, but supply varies Delivered electricity Thousand TWh Europe China 4 10 United States Other Renewables Other Renewables 4 Wind & Solar 2 Wind & Solar Nuclear 2 5 Nuclear Natural gas 0 India 2017 2040 4 Natural gas Coal 0 2017 2040 Coal Africa 2 4 Other Non-OECD AP 0 4 Latin America 0 2017 2040 4 2 2017 2040 2 2 0 2017 2040 0 2017 2040 0 2017 2040 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Liquids supply highlights regional diversity By region and type MBDOE Other / Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional Crude & Condensate . Demand Net Net exports imports '17 '25 '40 North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia America America Caspian East Pacific EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY United States Energy Demand Primary By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Res/Comm Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Industrial Coal Gas Electricity Generation Oil Transportation 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY U.S. Oil and Gas Production Grows Crude and Condensate Production Dry Gas Production MBDOE BCFD 12 80 9 60 6 40 3 20 0 0 1970 1986 2002 2018 1970 1986 2002 2018 Source: EIA EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY U.S. Liquids Supply Grows U.S. Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE 25 Other Petroleum Biofuels Liquids Demand 20 NGLs 15 Net Imports 10 Crude & Condensate 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY PURSUING A 2ºC A perspective on the role of oil and natural gas and the PATHWAY importance of technology in a decarbonizing world 12 EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Emissions vary with policy and technology assumptions Global energy-related CO2 emissions Billion tonnes Stanford Energy Modeling Forum EMF27-base-FT scenarios 2019 Outlook for Energy Stanford Energy Modeling Forum EMF27-450-FT scenarios EMF27-FT cases include CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Assessed 2ºC scenarios: 2040 global energy mix 2040 global demand by energy type from assessed 2oC scenarios Exajoules Non-bio renewables Bioenergy Bioenergy w/ CCS Nuclear Coal Coal w/ CCS Natural gas Natural gas w/ CCS Oil Oil w/ CCS EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB *IEA WEO 2018 SDS includes CCS but breakdown by energy type is not readily identifiable EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Supply / demand gap warrant investment Global oil supply and demand Global natural gas supply and demand MBDOE BCFD Outlook demand High demand based High demand based on assessed 2ºC on assessed 2ºC scenarios scenarios Outlook demand New supply required Average demand Average demand based on assessed based on assessed 2ºC scenarios 2ºC scenarios New supply required Low demand based on assessed 2ºC Low demand scenarios based on assessed 2ºC scenarios Decline without Decline without investment investment Excludes biofuels; Source: IEA, EM analyses Source: IHS, EM analyses Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Supply / demand gap warrant investment Global oil supply and demand Global natural gas supply and demand MBDOE BCFD Outlook demand High demand based High demand based on assessed 2ºC on assessed 2ºC scenarios scenarios Outlook demand New supply required Average demand Average demand based on assessed based on assessed 2ºC scenarios 2ºC scenarios New supply required Low demand based on assessed 2ºC Low demand scenarios based on assessed 2ºC scenarios Decline without Decline without investment investment Excludes biofuels; Source: IEA, EM analyses Source: IHS, EM analyses Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway Assessed 2oC scenarios based on EMF27 full technology/450ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2ºC pathway Costs borne by society to lower GHG emissions Hypothetical ~2oC Technology Breakthrough Opportunities ~2 B Higher policy / technology Below frontier Power grid reliability & long-duration storage: societal Poverty Batteries, chemical storage, hydrogen costs Lower-carbon commercial transport: algae & cellulosic biofuels, fuel cells, batteries Lower-carbon industrial processes: carbon capture, hydrogen, process intensification Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society Advanced, less carbon-intensive materials for efficient buildings and infrastructure Lower societal Negative emissions: bioenergy with carbon capture, costs direct air capture, CO2 utilization Societal Costs / Technology matrix is illustrative only Technology advancement Existing Advances Breakthrough (e.g. natural gas, (e.g. negative emissions, storage, wind, solar, CCS) CCU, advanced biofuels) DUAL CHALLENGE NOVEMBER 20, 2019 ExxonMobil Alaska Alignment with Outlook for Energy State of Alaska – Potential for Gas Legend Pipeline • World-class resource Federal Boundary • 200 TCF estimated (AK DNR) Pt Thomson Prudhoe Bay • EM largest gas resource holder in state ~24 TCF ~8 TCF • Bringing Alaska gas to market would: • Supply growing demand • Support 2oC climate change scenarios • Increase revenue for Alaska • Create Alaskan jobs • Industry and Government cooperation will be required to enable gas projects 20 ExxonMobil supports options to bring Alaska gas to market FLOATING LNG 21 Oil & Gas Industry Taxes • ExxonMobil continues to deliver the oil needed to drive demand for liquid fuels • Largest working interest in Prudhoe Bay (36.4%) • Operator of Point Thomson – 2016 startup • Alaskan’s benefit from every barrel produced • Revenue from production tax, royalties, income tax, property tax • Job creation and sustainment • Increasing taxes will harm the state in the long term • Decreased investment / jobs • Decreasing production • Decreased TAPS field life $54/bbl Source:
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