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The Outlook for Energy: a View to 2030

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The Outlook for Energy: a View to 2030 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 Gene Tunison ExxonMobil Refining & Supply Diesel Engine-Efficiency and Emissions Research (DEER) 2008 Conference Dearborn, Michigan August 4, 2008 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual futurefuture conditionsconditions (including(including economiceconomic conditions,conditions, energyenergy demand,demand, andand energyenergy supply)supply) couldcould differdiffer materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and otherr factorsfactors discusseddiscussed hereinherein (and(and inin ItemItem 11 ofof ExxonMobil’sExxonMobil’s latestlatest reportreport onon FormForm 10-K).10-K). ThisThis materialmaterial isis notnot toto bebe reproducedreproduced withoutwithout thethe permissionpermission ofof ExExxon Mobil Corporation. Energy Outlook Basis Energy Supply/Demand MBDOE 350 • Energy Demand Outlook – Detailed buildup by country and end-use sector 300 – Links energy use to economic drivers – Incorporates efficiency improvements – Considers trends, economics, and supply by fuel type 250 – Reflects assessment of potential policy initiatives 200 • Oil & Gas Supply Outlook – Incorporates ultimate recoverable resource estimates 150 Other – Models production profiles for all countries or regions Coal – Considers economics and ongoing advances in technology 100 Gas 50 Oil 0 1980 2005 2030 Global Economics and Energy GDP Energy Intensity Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ BOE/2005$K GDP MBDOE Average Growth / Yr. 100 1980 – 2005 2005 – 2030 3 350 2.9% 3.0% -1.0% -1.6% 1.8% 1.3% 300 75 250 2 200 50 150 1 100 25 50 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 World Energy Demand By Fuel By Sector - 2030 Average Growth / Yr. MBDOE 2005 – 2030 350 1.3% 300 Other Industry Res / 250 1.7% Comm Power Generation 200 0.9% Chemicals 150 Other Heavy 1.7% Manufacturing Coal Transportation 100 Gas 1.2% 50 Oil ~ 324 MBDOE 0 1980 2005 2030 Global Transportation Demand MBDOE Average Growth / Yr. 1980 - 2005 50 2.2% 40 Rail 30 Commercial Marine 2.4% 20 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles 10 Personal Light Duty Vehicles 2.0% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Global Commercial Transportation Growth 1980 - 2005 By Sector Average Growth / Yr. MBDOE MBDOE 1980 - 2005 10 50 2.4% 5 40 Commercial 0 Rail -3.0% 1.7 % HDV AVI MAR RAIL 2.4% -5 30 Marine Demand versus GDP 3.3% MBDOE 20 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles 30 20 10 Light Duty Vehicles 10 0 0 20 25 30 35 40 45 1980 2005 GDP (Trillion 2005$) Global Commercial Transportation MBDOE Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 50 2.3% 40 0.9% 30 2.6% Rail 2.2% Commercial 20 Marine 2.2% 10 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global Transportation Demand OECD Average Growth / Yr. Non-OECD 2005 - 2030 MBDOE MBDOE 35 0.6% 35 3.1% 30 30 1.2% 25 Other Transport 25 1.7% 20 20 3.6% 15 Heavy Duty Vehicles 15 -0.5% 2.8% 10 10 5 Light Duty Vehicles 5 3.4% 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 Liquids Supply & Demand Average Growth / Yr. MBDOE 2005 – 2030 120 1.3% 90 ~47 ~38 Liquids Demand ~32 Biofuels 60 ~27 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other OPEC Crude Non-OPEC Oil Sands 30 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World Energy Demand – Primary Energy Supplies Primary Energy Renewables Wind, Solar & Biofuels Average Growth / Yr. MBDOE 2005 - 2030 MBDOE MBDOE 350 45 6 1.3% 1.5% 8.7% 40 300 Wind, Solar & 5 Renewables 1.5% 8.7% 35 Biofuels 250 2.0% 30 2.0% 4 Solar 9.9% 0.9% Hydro/Geo 200 25 3 150 20 0.7% Nuclear 1.7% 10.5% Coal 15 2 100 Wind Gas 10 Biomass/Other 1.2% 1 50 Biofuels 7.6% Oil 5 0 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 ExxonMobil Technologies Gasoline Internal Combustion Engine from Crude Oil – Well-to-Wheels Analysis Crude Crude Crude Refining Product Storage Retail Gasoline Recovery Transportation to Products & Transportation Site Vehicle Well-to-Tank Tank-to-Wheels 20% GHG/mile 80% GHG/mile 20% Energy/mile 80% Energy/mile Well-to-Tank Technologies Tank-to-Wheels Technologies • Energy Efficiency • Advanced Lubricants (Mobil 1 AFE) • Cogeneration • Low weight plastics • Flare Reduction • Films for Li-ion Batteries • Tire Inner liners • HCCI Research • On-board hydrogen generation Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP) Source: WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005 CO2 Mitigation Options Scale Cost Cellulosic Annual CO2 (Billion Tonnes) $ per Tonne CO2 Avoided Full Ethanol 20 250 Hybrids Conventional Ethanol 200 2030 15 150 2005 100 10 Start-Stop 50 Hybrids 0 5 NG Nuclear IGCC Wind CCS -50 Engine 0 Improvements Power Light Duty -100 Power Light Duty Generation Transport Generation Transport Source: SFA Pacific, TNO-IEEP-LAT, JEC (2007) Biofuels do not include emerging land-impacts issues Conclusions • Economic progress, especially in developing countries, will drive global energy demand higher despite substantial efficiency gains • Oil, natural gas and coal are indispensable to meeting this energy demand, even with rapid growth in renewables • Significantly impacting CO2 emissions requires global participation, step changes in energy efficiency, technology gains and massive investment .
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