The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
Rob Gardner April 2015
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. GDP Growth Varies By Region
World GDP by Region GDP Growth Rate Trillion 2010$ Y/Y Percent
2.8%
Non OECD 3.1%
India
China Key Growth OECD United States OECD Europe*
*Turkey included in Key Growth countries
2 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy The Middle Class Continues to Grow
Middle Class per The Brookings Institution Billion People
Rest of World
Key Growth Turkey Iran China Egypt China India Mexico Saudi Arabia Thailand Nigeria
Brazil India Indonesia
South Africa OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
3 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy
4 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Developing Economies Dominate Growth
Demand by Region Quadrillion BTUs
Rest of World
Key Growth
India
China
OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
5 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy
6 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
Global Capacity Utilized By Generation GW k TWh
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Wind & Solar
Other Renewables Oil
7 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy People’s Living Standards Depend on Energy
8 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy China’s Urban Households Have Modernized Rapidly
China’s Urban Appliance Ownership Demand By SectorFuel Appliances per 100 Households Quadrillion BTUs
Color TV Air Conditioner
Commercial Washing Machine Refrigerator Electricity Water Heater Computer
Other Renewables Biomass Coal Residential China Gas
Oil OECD*
Source: China Statistical Yearbook
9 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation
10 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Advanced Powertrains and Alternative Fuels
Gasoline Spark Ignition ICE
Diesel Compression Ignition ICE
Ethanol Stop-Start Hybrid FCENGINE STACK MOTOR
Biodiesel Full Hybrid
FUEL H2 TANK BATTERY CNG TANK BATTERY
LNG Plug-in Hybrid
Electricity Battery Electric Vehicle
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle
11 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
Powertrain Technology Million Vehicles 201020252040
12 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial Demand
Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs
Paint
Fertilizer Plastics
Chemical Automobiles Textiles Steel Heavy Industry Natural Gas Liquid Coal Agriculture Fuels Energy Industry Lubricants Other Asphalt
13 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Demand by Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Nuclear Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
14 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy CO2 Emissions
15 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy World Emissions
CO2 Emissions by Region Emissions per Capita Billion metric tonnes Tonnes / Person
‘10 Rest of World
Key Growth ‘40
India
China
OECD*
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
16 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy z
z
Supply
17 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Highest Texas Production Since 1980’s
Texas Field Production of Crude Oil KBD
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2014 through Aug
18 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region
MBDOE
Demand Biofuels Other
Natural Gas Liquids
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional C&C Development
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 Conventional Crude & Condensate
North America
19 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region
MBDOE Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia America America Caspian East Pacific
20 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Pennsylvania’s 20x Increase
Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production BCFD
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
21 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Gas Trade Balance by Region
BCFD
Unconventional Production ProductionConventional Production Demand
‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia America America Caspian East Pacific
22 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app
North America Gas Production
BCFD
Unconventional
Conventional
25 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy LNG Exports Triple and Inter-regional PL Exports Double
Gas Supply LNG Exports by Basin BCFD BCFD
LNG
Pipeline ME Atlantic Pacific
Local Unconventional Inter-regional Pipeline Exports BCFD
Local Conventional
26 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand
2040 LDV Fleet World LDV Demand Million MBDOE
Improved Standard of Living
Population Growth Energy Savings Base Fleet
Improved Standard of Living
Population Growth
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
27 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Thousand TWh
2014 China Improved Standard of Living
Population Growth
Key Growth Industrial Growth United States
Europe India
Base Demand
28 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
2030 Levelized Cost of Electricity Baseload Intermittent 2014 U.S. cents/kWh
Unable to meet NSPS Reliability Cost*
Reliability
Cost*
CO2 Cost: $60/tonne
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
29 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Wind and Solar Demand
Global Wind and Solar Capacity Electricity Share Delivered by Wind and Solar Gigawatts Percent
European Union
Solar
United States
China
India Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
30 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency
Fleet by Type Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency Million On-Road Miles per Gallon
Average Fleet
Europe
U.S.
31 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation Fuel Demand
World United States MBDOE MBDOE
Other Natural Gas
Fuel Oil Jet Fuel
Biodiesel
Diesel
Ethanol
Gasoline
32 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy U.S. Energy Trends
Indexed to 2000
GDP
Population
Demand Carbon Emissions
33 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy U.S. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
By Sector By Fuel Billion Tonnes Billion Tonnes
Res/Comm
Coal Industrial
Gas Electricity Generation
Liquids Transportation
34 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Fuel by Region
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Other Solar Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil Key Growth
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
35 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Demand
2040 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 0.8% 2010 - 2040
1.6% 1.0% 2010
0.1%
0.5% 2.3%
5.8% 1.8%
36 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Energy Trade
Liquids Demand Gas Demand MBDOE BCFD
Imports/Exports LNG
Pipeline
Local Production Local Production
37 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy