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Chapter 7 on Energy Systems Gas (GHG) Emissions 7 Energy Systems Coordinating Lead Authors: Thomas Bruckner (Germany), Igor Alexeyevich Bashmakov (Russian Federation), Yacob Mulugetta (Ethiopia / UK) Lead Authors: Helena Chum (Brazil / USA), Angel De la Vega Navarro (Mexico), James Edmonds (USA), Andre Faaij (Netherlands), Bundit Fungtammasan (Thailand), Amit Garg (India), Edgar Hertwich (Austria / Norway), Damon Honnery (Australia), David Infield (UK), Mikiko Kainuma (Japan), Smail Khennas (Algeria / UK), Suduk Kim (Republic of Korea), Hassan Bashir Nimir (Sudan), Keywan Riahi (Austria), Neil Strachan (UK), Ryan Wiser (USA), Xiliang Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: Yumiko Asayama (Japan), Giovanni Baiocchi (UK / Italy), Francesco Cherubini (Italy / Norway), Anna Czajkowska (Poland / UK), Naim Darghouth (USA), James J. Dooley (USA), Thomas Gibon (France / Norway), Haruna Gujba (Ethiopia / Nigeria), Ben Hoen (USA), David de Jager (Netherlands), Jessica Jewell (IIASA / USA), Susanne Kadner (Germany), Son H. Kim (USA), Peter Larsen (USA), Axel Michaelowa (Germany / Switzerland), Andrew Mills (USA), Kanako Morita (Japan), Karsten Neuhoff (Germany), Ariel Macaspac Hernandez (Philippines / Germany), H-Holger Rogner (Germany), Joseph Salvatore (UK), Steffen Schlömer (Germany), Kristin Seyboth (USA), Christoph von Stechow (Germany), Jigeesha Upadhyay (India) Review Editors: Kirit Parikh (India), Jim Skea (UK) Chapter Science Assistant: Ariel Macaspac Hernandez (Philippines / Germany) 511 Energy Systems Chapter 7 This chapter should be cited as: Bruckner T., I. A. Bashmakov, Y. Mulugetta, H. Chum, A. de la Vega Navarro, J. Edmonds, A. Faaij, B. Fungtammasan, A. Garg, E. Hertwich, D. Honnery, D. Infield, M. Kainuma, S. Khennas, S. Kim, H. B. Nimir, K. Riahi, N. Strachan, R. Wiser, and X. Zhang, 2014: Energy Systems. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von 7 Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 512 Chapter 7 Energy Systems Contents Executive Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 482 7 7�1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 518 7�2 Energy production, conversion, transmission and distribution � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 519 7�3 New developments in emission trends and drivers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 522 7�4 Resources and resource availability � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 524 7�4�1 Fossil fuels � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 524 7�4�2 Renewable energy � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 525 7�4�3 Nuclear energy � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 526 7�5 Mitigation technology options, practices and behavioral aspects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 527 7�5�1 Fossil fuel extraction, conversion, and fuel switching � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 527 7�5�2 Energy efficiency in transmission and distribution � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 528 7�5�3 Renewable energy technologies � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 528 7�5�4 Nuclear energy � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 530 7�5�5 Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 532 7�6 Infrastructure and systemic perspectives� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 534 7�6�1 Electrical power systems � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 534 7.6.1.1 System balancing — flexible generation and loads ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������534 7.6.1.2 Capacity adequacy ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������535 7.6.1.3 Transmission and distribution ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������535 7�6�2 Heating and cooling networks � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 535 7�6�3 Fuel supply systems � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 536 7�6�4 CO2 transport � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 536 513 Energy Systems Chapter 7 7�7 Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 537 7�8 Costs and potentials � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 538 7�8�1 Potential emission reduction from mitigation measures � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 538 7 7�8�2 Cost assessment of mitigation measures � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 542 7�8�3 Economic potentials of mitigation measures � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 543 7�9 Co-benefits, risks and spillovers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 544 7�9�1 Socio-economic effects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 544 7�9�2 Environmental and health effects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 546 7�9�3 Technical risks � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 549 7�9�4 Public perception � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 551 7�10 Barriers and opportunities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 551 7�10�1 Technical aspects � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 551 7�10�2 Financial and investment barriers and opportunities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 552 7�10�3 Cultural, institutional, and legal barriers and opportunities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 552 7�10�4 Human capital capacity building � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 553 7�10�5 Inertia in energy systems physical capital stock turnover� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �
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