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Coal and Oil: the Dark Monarchs of Global Energy – Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and Their Importance for Futur

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Coal and Oil: the Dark Monarchs of Global Energy – Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and Their Importance for Futur nam et ipsa scientia potestas est List of Papers This thesis is based on the following papers, which are referred to in the text by their Roman numerals. I Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2008) A decline rate study of Norwe- gian oil production. Energy Policy, 36(11):4262–4271 II Höök, M., Söderbergh, B., Jakobsson, K., Aleklett, K. (2009) The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour. Natural Resources Research, 18(1):39–56 III Höök, M., Hirsch, R., Aleklett, K. (2009) Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Pol- icy, 37(6):2262–2272 IV Jakobsson, K., Söderbergh, B., Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agen- cies? Energy Policy, 37(11):4809–4818 V Höök M, Söderbergh, B., Aleklett, K. (2009) Future Danish oil and gas export. Energy, 34(11):1826–1834 VI Aleklett K., Höök, M., Jakobsson, K., Lardelli, M., Snowden, S., Söderbergh, B. (2010) The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008. Energy Policy, 38(3):1398–1414 VII Höök M, Tang, X., Pang, X., Aleklett K. (2010) Development journey and outlook for the Chinese giant oilfields. Petroleum Development and Exploration, 37(2):237–249 VIII Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook. International Journal of Coal Geology, 78(3):201–216 IX Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2010) Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks. Natural Re- sources Research, 19(3):189–208 X Höök, M., Zittel, W., Schindler, J., Aleklett, K. (2010) Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model. Fuel, 89(11):3546–3558 Reprints were made with permission from the respective publishers. List of papers not included in this thesis: 1. Nygren, E., Aleklett, K., Höök, M. (2009) Aviation fuel and fu- ture oil production scenarios. Energy Policy, 37(10):4003–4010 2. Höök, M., Sivertsson, A., Aleklett, K. (2010) Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios. Natural Resources Research, 19(2):63–81 3. Tang, X., Zhang, B., Höök, M., Feng, L. (2010) Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China. Energy, 35(7):3097–3102 4. Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2010) A review on coal to liquid fuels and its coal consumption. International Journal of Energy Re- search, 34(10):848–864 5. Höök, M., Bardi, U., Feng, L., Pang, X. (2010) Development of oil formation theories and their importance for peak oil. Marine and Petroleum Geology, article in press Other works not included in this thesis: 1. Höök, M., Zittel, W., Schindler, J., Aleklett, K. (2008) A sup- ply-driven forecast for the future global coal production. Con- tribution to ASPO. 2. Höök, M. (2009) Depletion and decline curve analysis in crude oil production. Licentiate thesis 3. Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks. Proceedings of the International Pittsburgh Coal Conference 2009 4. Höök, M. (2010) Future coal production outlooks used in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: are they plausible? Proceedings of the International Pittsburgh Coal Conference 2010 5. Höök, M. (2010) Coal and Peat: Global resources and future supply. In: Mayers, R.A. (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Sustainabil- ity Science and Technology. Springer, in press Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 11 1.1 Thesis disposition ............................................................................... 11 1.2 Introduction to papers ......................................................................... 12 2. The dark saga begins ................................................................................. 16 2.1 Taming the dark flames of coal .......................................................... 17 2.1.1 The genesis of mechanization ..................................................... 17 2.1.2 In hollow halls beneath the fells ................................................. 18 2.1.3 Crafting a dawn of steel .............................................................. 19 2.1.4 Intellectual sprouts from the emerging industry ......................... 20 2.2 The radiance of a rising twin monarchy ............................................. 21 2.2.1 Harpoons, whales and the quest for illumination ....................... 21 2.2.2 Discovering a new form of liquid light ....................................... 22 2.2.3 Foreclose of a dream ................................................................... 24 2.2.4 The march of the electrons ......................................................... 26 2.3 Oil outshines coal through a reign of blood ....................................... 27 2.3.1 The first worldwide waves of blood and oil ............................... 28 2.3.3 Automobiles and nationalism rising ........................................... 28 2.3.2 Petroleum troubles brewing ........................................................ 29 2.3.4 The Second World War .............................................................. 30 2.4 Dark rivers flowing forth .................................................................... 31 2.4.1 Exporting the shackles of foreign oil dependence ...................... 32 2.4.2 The birth of OPEC ...................................................................... 33 2.4.2 A troublesome shift of thrones ................................................... 33 2.5 Threading the path to the present ....................................................... 36 2.5.1 Recent production and price peaks ............................................. 36 2.5.2 The Peak Oil debate .................................................................... 38 2.6 Unveiling the black heart of everything ............................................. 39 3. A sequel of decay ...................................................................................... 41 3.1 Coal formation .................................................................................... 42 3.1.1 Coal formation epochs ................................................................ 43 3.1.2 Coal resources and reserves ........................................................ 44 3.2 Oil formation ...................................................................................... 46 3.2.1 The petroleum system ................................................................. 46 3.2.2 Oil resources and reserves .......................................................... 48 3.3 Coal and oil recovery methods ........................................................... 50 3.3.1 Coal production .......................................................................... 50 3.3.2 Oil production ............................................................................. 51 3.5 Production patterns of finite resources? ............................................. 52 4. Approaching the problem ......................................................................... 55 4.1 Data gathering .................................................................................... 56 4.2 Data analysis overview ....................................................................... 58 4.3 Numerical software and computations ............................................... 59 5. The concept of depletion ........................................................................... 61 5.1 Direct depletion mechanisms ............................................................. 62 5.1.1 Oil reservoir fundamentals ......................................................... 62 5.1.2 Depletion-driven production decline in oilfields ........................ 65 5.1.3 Depletion rate analysis ................................................................ 69 5.1.4 Decline curves ............................................................................ 70 5.2 Indirect depletion mechanisms ........................................................... 71 5.2.1 Hubbert’s original approach ....................................................... 73 5.2.2 Logistic models ........................................................................... 74 5.2.3 General growth curve methods ................................................... 76 5.2.4 Statistical arguments ................................................................... 78 5.2.5 Prey-predator models .................................................................. 80 5.2.6 Complex models ......................................................................... 82 5.3 General remarks on production modelling ......................................... 83 6. Concluding remarks .................................................................................. 85 6.1 General findings ................................................................................. 85 6.1.1 Connection to energy security .................................................... 87 6.1.2 Connection to anthropogenic climate change ............................. 88 6.1.3 Connection to sustainability ....................................................... 89 6.1.4 Directions for future work .......................................................... 90 6.2 Final notes .......................................................................................... 90 7. Summary in Swedish / Sammanfattning ................................................... 91 Acknowledgements
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