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Working Paper
WORKING PAPER The Value of Oil Price Projectiom Nebojsa Nakinnovic Leo SchrattenhoLzer October 1935 IQ-85-68 lnternrtionrl Institute tor -lid System, Anrlyth NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS The Value of Oil Price Projections Nebo jsa Nakicenovic Leo SchrattenhoLzer October 1935 TW-85-68 Working Papers are interim reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute or of its National Member Organizations. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria -ABSTRACT AND SUBXAXY The central theme of this paper is the development of the international price of crude oil. A short overview of oil price his6ry is followed by a discussion of the factors that were responsible for previous, sometimes erratic, changes. We con- clude that these factors are likely to maintain their influence in the future, thus giving the forecasts of oil prices a high uncertainty. This uncertainty is reflected in several reports containing oil price proje[ctions. We argue, therefore, that a question soieiy about future oil prices must remain unanswered. Tnis does not render the efforts to examine the future futile; it simpiy means that the question shouid be rephrased. We offer one possible problem formulation that explicitly accounts for the high uncertainty. This formulation requires that specific policy probiems and options for solving them be specified before oil prices are projected - a condition that does not always hold or, at least, that does not seem to be regarded as important enougn to be described in many reports on oil price studies. -
U.S. Energy in the 21St Century: a Primer
U.S. Energy in the 21st Century: A Primer March 16, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46723 SUMMARY R46723 U.S. Energy in the 21st Century: A Primer March 16, 2021 Since the start of the 21st century, the U.S. energy system has changed tremendously. Technological advances in energy production have driven changes in energy consumption, and Melissa N. Diaz, the United States has moved from being a net importer of most forms of energy to a declining Coordinator importer—and a net exporter in 2019. The United States remains the second largest producer and Analyst in Energy Policy consumer of energy in the world, behind China. Overall energy consumption in the United States has held relatively steady since 2000, while the mix of energy sources has changed. Between 2000 and 2019, consumption of natural gas and renewable energy increased, while oil and nuclear power were relatively flat and coal decreased. In the same period, production of oil, natural gas, and renewables increased, while nuclear power was relatively flat and coal decreased. Overall energy production increased by 42% over the same period. Increases in the production of oil and natural gas are due in part to technological improvements in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that have facilitated access to resources in unconventional formations (e.g., shale). U.S. oil production (including natural gas liquids and crude oil) and natural gas production hit record highs in 2019. The United States is the largest producer of natural gas, a net exporter, and the largest consumer. Oil, natural gas, and other liquid fuels depend on a network of over three million miles of pipeline infrastructure. -
2021 Annual General Meeting and Proxy Statement 2020 Annual Report
2020 Annual Report and Proxyand Statement 2021 Annual General Meeting Meeting General Annual 2021 Transocean Ltd. • 2021 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND PROXY STATEMENT • 2020 ANNUAL REPORT CONTENTS LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS NOTICE OF 2021 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND PROXY STATEMENT COMPENSATION REPORT 2020 ANNUAL REPORT TO SHAREHOLDERS ABOUT TRANSOCEAN LTD. Transocean is a leading international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells. The company specializes in technically demanding sectors of the global offshore drilling business with a particular focus on ultra-deepwater and harsh environment drilling services, and operates one of the most versatile offshore drilling fleets in the world. Transocean owns or has partial ownership interests in, and operates a fleet of 37 mobile offshore drilling units consisting of 27 ultra-deepwater floaters and 10 harsh environment floaters. In addition, Transocean is constructing two ultra-deepwater drillships. Our shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RIG. OUR GLOBAL MARKET PRESENCE Ultra-Deepwater 27 Harsh Environment 10 The symbols in the map above represent the company’s global market presence as of the February 12, 2021 Fleet Status Report. ABOUT THE COVER The front cover features two of our crewmembers onboard the Deepwater Conqueror in the Gulf of Mexico and was taken prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, our priorities remain keeping our employees, customers, contractors and their families healthy and safe, and delivering incident-free operations to our customers worldwide. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Any statements included in this Proxy Statement and 2020 Annual Report that are not historical facts, including, without limitation, statements regarding future market trends and results of operations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities law. -
Empirical Inference of Related Trading Between Two Securities: Detecting Pairs Trading, Merger Arbitrage, and Strategy Rules*
Empirical inference of related trading between two securities: Detecting pairs trading, merger arbitrage, and strategy rules* Keith Godfrey The University of Western Australia Working paper: 5 September 2013 The traditional approach to studying pairs trading is to simulate profitability using ex-post historical prices. I study the actual trades reported anonymously in security pairs and build statistical inferences of related trading. The approach is based on the time differences between trades. It can distinguish intrinsically related securities from pseudo-random sets, find stocks involved in merger arbitrage in massive sets of paired index constituents, and infer dominant trading rules of mean reversion algorithms. Empirical inference of related trading can enable further studies into pairs trading, strategy rules, merger arbitrage, and insider trading. Keywords: Inferred trading, empirical inference, pairs trading, merger arbitrage. JEL Classification Codes: G00, G10, C10, C40, C60 The availability of intraday trading or “tick” data with time resolution of a millisecond or finer is opening many avenues of research into financial markets. Analysis of two or more streams of tick data concurrently is becoming increasingly important in the study of multiple-security trading including index tracking, pairs trading, merger arbitrage, and market-neutral strategies. One of the greatest challenges in empirical trading research is the anonymity of reported trades. Securities exchanges report the dates, times, prices, and volumes traded, without identifying the traders. In studies of a single security, this introduces uncertainty of whether each market order that caused a trade was the buy or sell order, and there are documented approaches of inference such as Lee and Ready (1991). -
To Arrive at the Total Scores, Each Company Is Marked out of 10 Across
BRITAIN’S MOST ADMIRED COMPANIES THE RESULTS 17th last year as it continues to do well in the growing LNG business, especially in Australia and Brazil. Veteran chief executive Frank Chapman is due to step down in the new year, and in October a row about overstated reserves hit the share price. Some pundits To arrive at the total scores, each company is reckon BG could become a take over target as a result. The biggest climber in the top 10 this year is marked out of 10 across nine criteria, such as quality Petrofac, up to fifth from 68th last year. The oilfield of management, value as a long-term investment, services group may not be as well known as some, but it is doing great business all the same. Its boss, Syrian- financial soundness and capacity to innovate. Here born Ayman Asfari, is one of the growing band of are the top 10 firms by these individual measures wealthy foreign entrepreneurs who choose to make London their operating base and home, to the benefit of both the Exchequer and the employment figures. In fourth place is Rolls-Royce, one of BMAC’s most Financial value as a long-term community and environmental soundness investment responsibility consistent high performers. Hardly a year goes past that it does not feature in the upper reaches of our table, 1= Rightmove 9.00 1 Diageo 8.61 1 Co-operative Bank 8.00 and it has topped its sector – aero and defence engi- 1= Rotork 9.00 2 Berkeley Group 8.40 2 BASF (UK & Ireland) 7.61 neering – for a decade. -
Preparing for Carbon Pricing: Case Studies from Company Experience
TECHNICAL NOTE 9 | JANUARY 2015 Preparing for Carbon Pricing Case Studies from Company Experience: Royal Dutch Shell, Rio Tinto, and Pacific Gas and Electric Company Acknowledgments and Methodology This Technical Note was prepared for the PMR Secretariat by Janet Peace, Tim Juliani, Anthony Mansell, and Jason Ye (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions—C2ES), with input and supervision from Pierre Guigon and Sarah Moyer (PMR Secretariat). The note comprises case studies with three companies: Royal Dutch Shell, Rio Tinto, and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). All three have operated in jurisdictions where carbon emissions are regulated. This note captures their experiences and lessons learned preparing for and operating under policies that price carbon emissions. The following information sources were used during the research for these case studies: 1. Interviews conducted between February and October 2014 with current and former employees who had first-hand knowledge of these companies’ activities related to preparing for and operating under carbon pricing regulation. 2. Publicly available resources, including corporate sustainability reports, annual reports, and Carbon Disclosure Project responses. 3. Internal company review of the draft case studies. 4. C2ES’s history of engagement with corporations on carbon pricing policies. Early insights from this research were presented at a business-government dialogue co-hosted by the PMR, the International Finance Corporation, and the Business-PMR of the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) in Cologne, Germany, in May 2014. Feedback from that event has also been incorporated into the final version. We would like to acknowledge experts at Royal Dutch Shell, Rio Tinto, and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)—among whom Laurel Green, David Hone, Sue Lacey and Neil Marshman—for their collaboration and for sharing insights during the preparation of the report. -
1 Potential Influences on the Prospect of Renewable Energy Development in OPEC Members Hanan Alsadi1 1. Introduction the Global
1 Potential Influences on the Prospect of Renewable Energy Development in OPEC Members Hanan Alsadi1 1. Introduction The global energy transitioning trend escalates due to the continuous growth of energy consumption and advancing climate change. While the total fossil fuel consumption is increasing twice as fast as the average rate over the last decade, making 70% of the global energy demand, the reckless use of fossil fuel is causing substantial damage to the environment (International Energy Agency, 2018; Šolc, 2013). An effective fix to the problem while dubious is to replace the energy source by alternatives. The renewable energy (RE) offers the most definite prospect for producing clean, sustainable power in substantial quantities, which arouses interest around the world. According to Gielen and Colleagues (2019), the RE’s share of global consumption energy would rise from 15% in 2015 to 63% in 2050. However, if this increasing trend in renewable energies would also prevail among Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is subject to debate. They all have abundant potential to invest in renewable energy sources. Yet, some of the Middle Eastern and Arab Gulf OPEC members do not have or have a small amount of renewable energy sources. In contrast, other members have significant renewable energy sources. Researchers have studied some aspects of renewable energy and its relationship to the OPEC countries. For example, Wittmann (2013) looked at the potential for transitioning from petroleum exportation to renewable energy exportation among the OPEC countries. Still, Wittmann does not explain any specific transition strategies or plans for the Middle Eastern OPEC countries. -
The West African Oil & Gas Market 2013-2023
The West African Oil & Gas Market 2013-2023 Table 4.28 Exploration Fields that Gabon Oil Company is Involved in Fields Operator MAGHENA Addax AGALI Anadarko NKANI Atas E2 Eni D3 Eni D4 Eni F2 Eni F3 Eni F7 Eni EPAEMENO GGPC EOV GGPC DUSSAFU Harvest ETEKAMBA Maurel & Prom OMOUEYI Maurel & Prom NYANGA MAYOMBE Maurel & Prom KARI Maurel & Prom MOABI MPDC NGUMA MPDC SHAKTHI Oil India MBELI Ophir Gabon NTSINA Ophir Gabon MANGA Ophir Gabon GNONDO Ophir Gabon NZIEMBOU Perenco OGUEYI Perenco DE 7 Perenco AROUWE Perenco DUSSAFU Sasol IGOUMOU MARIN Shell Gabon BC9 Shell Gabon BCD10 Shell Gabon SALSICH Sino Gabon LOTUS Sinopec MBINDA Total Gabon ALOUMBE Total Gabon DIABA Total Gabon AZOBE Tullow Oil AKOUM Tullow Oil KIARSSENY Tullow Oil Source: Gabon Oil Company 4.7.5.3 Prospects for Pre-Salt Development As with Angola and several other West African countries, the rapid development of Brazil’s pre-salt formations has sparked considerable interest in the prospects for Gabon’s pre-salt regions, which were part of the same prehistoric supercontinent, Pangea. Gabon’s pre-salt regions had been www.visiongain.com Page 99 The West African Oil & Gas Market 2013-2023 4.8 Republic of the Congo Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 Table 4.31, Figure 4.32 and Figure 4.33 show visiongain’s forecast for Republic of Congo’s oil & gas market over the next ten years. Table 4.31 Republic of the Congo Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($bn, AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013-23 Capex $bn 1.55 1.70 2.57 4.15 4.55 2.70 2.50 1.80 1.87 2.10 2.40 2.80 29.14 AGR (%) 9.8 50.9 61.6 9.6 -40.7 -7.4 -28.0 3.9 12.3 14.3 16.7 CAGR (%) 2013-18 8.0 2018-23 2.3 CAGR (%) 2013-23 5.1 Source: Visiongain 2013 Figure 4.32 Republic of the Congo Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2013-2023 ($bn, AGR%) 5.0 80% 4.5 60% 4.0 3.5 40% 3.0 20% 2.5 $Bn AGR 0% 2.0 1.5 -20% 1.0 -40% 0.5 0.0 -60% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Year Source: Visiongain 2013 www.visiongain.com Page 103 The West African Oil & Gas Market 2013-2023 6. -
A Holistic Framework for the Study of Interdependence Between Electricity and Gas Sectors
November 2015 A holistic framework for the study of interdependence between electricity and gas sectors OIES PAPER: EL 16 Donna Peng Rahmatallah Poudineh The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2015 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-042-9 A holistic framework for the study of interdependence between electricity and gas sectors i Acknowledgements The authors are thankful to Malcolm Keay, Howard Rogers and Pablo Dueñas for their invaluable comments on the earlier version of this paper. The authors would also like to extend their sincere gratitude to Bassam Fattouh, director of OIES, for his support during this project. A holistic framework for the study of interdependence between electricity and gas sectors ii Contents Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. ii Contents ............................................................................................................................................... -
BG Group's LNG Business
FACT SHEET – LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS BG Group’s LNG business BG Group’s LNG activities are founded on a deep understanding of our target markets and customers, along with a unique combination of infrastructure, flexible supply, shipping capacity and marketing capabilities. We have a strong presence in all segments of the chain, from upstream exploration and production, through liquefaction, shipping and regasification, to the end market. In liquefaction, we have a track record of execution, having been materially involved in the delivery of six liquefaction trains at projects in Trinidad and Tobago and Egypt. In shipping, we have one of the largest LNG fleets of any international oil and gas company consisting of (as of March 2012) around 25 owned or chartered modern vessels that are able to meet BG Group LNG sales terminal equity and/or capacity BG Group LNG sales terminal short/medium term BG Group LNG long term contracted sources BG Group LNG short term sources the needs of a rapidly changing market. In regasification, we have supply rights or terminal capacity in the UK, the US and Singapore, valuable entry points for agreement for LNG exports from the LNG supply position by around 50% LNG into these markets, as well as long- US, with a purchase of 5.5 mtpa from above current levels over the next three term sales to customers in Chile, Japan the Sabine Pass LNG terminal being years, targeting 20 million tonnes per and China. developed by Cheniere Energy Partners, annum (mtpa) by 2015. In light of our L.P., and are progressing plans for export progress at QCLNG, together with the The Group has developed an industry from the Lake Charles facility, where we growth potential inherent within the leading portfolio of flexible long-term hold 100% of the import capacity. -
UK/Netherlands SNS Hackathon Output Report
UK/Netherlands SNS Hackathon Output Report April 2019 Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 How Does a Hackathon Event Work? ................................................................................................................... 5 Findings ............................................................................................................................................................... 6 Operator Challenges ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Operator 1: Shell .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Operator2: Oranje Nassau Energie B.V. ........................................................................................................ 8 Operator 3: Spirit Energy .............................................................................................................................. 9 Operator 4: Neptune Energy ...................................................................................................................... -
United States Bankruptcy Court Southern District of Texas Houston Division
Case 20-34114 Document 528 Filed in TXSB on 10/19/20 Page 1 of 58 UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS HOUSTON DIVISION ) In re: ) Chapter 11 ) VALARIS PLC, et al.,1 ) Case No. 20-34114 (MI) ) Debtors. ) (Jointly Administered) ) GLOBAL NOTES, METHODOLOGY, AND SPECIFIC DISCLOSURES REGARDING THE DEBTORS’ SCHEDULES OF ASSETS AND LIABILITIES AND STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Introduction Valaris plc (“Valaris”) and its debtor affiliates, as debtors and debtors in possession in the above-captioned chapter 11 cases (collectively, the “Debtors”), with the assistance of their advisors, have filed their respective Schedules of Assets and Liabilities (the “Schedules”) and Statements of Financial Affairs (the “Statements,” and together with the Schedules, the “Schedules and Statements”) with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas (the “Bankruptcy Court”), under section 521 of title 11 of the United States Code (the “Bankruptcy Code”), Rule 1007 of the Federal Rules of Bankruptcy Procedure (the “Bankruptcy Rules”), and Rule 1007-1 of the Bankruptcy Local Rules for the Southern District of Texas (the “Local Rules”). These Global Notes, Methodology, and Specific Disclosures Regarding the Debtors’ Schedules of Assets and Liabilities and Statements of Financial Affairs (the “Global Notes”) pertain to, are incorporated by reference in, and comprise an integral part of all of the Debtors’ Schedules and Statements. The Global Notes should be referred to, considered, and reviewed in connection with any review of the Schedules and Statements. The Schedules and Statements do not purport to represent financial statements prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States (“GAAP”), nor are they intended to be fully reconciled with the financial statements of each Debtor.