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(2386 HK) Sinopec Refining, Chems, LNG Capex Tailwind

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(2386 HK) Sinopec Refining, Chems, LNG Capex Tailwind 18 September 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) 2386 HK Outperform Sinopec refining, chems, LNG capex tailwind Price (at 08:50, 18 Sep 2018 GMT) HK$8.14 Valuation HK$ 7.50-13.20 Key points - EV-EBITDA (Bear-Bull We are constructive on the earnings turnaround at Sinopec Engineering 12-month target HK$ 11.00 (SEG), albeit with below consensus estimates. Upside/Downside % +35.1 Order flow has positively surprised YTD, and we see material incremental 12-month TSR % +40.5 orders from Sinopec’s expansion plans in refining, chemicals, LNG. Volatility Index Low/Medium Our new HK$11.0 price target (prior HK$9.7) with 35% upside potential GICS sector Capital Goods implies 8x 2019 EV-EBITDA, 0.3x EV-Backlog, and 1.6x P/B. Market cap HK$m 36,044 Market cap US$m 4,594 An improved order backlog and revenue outlook for SEG Free float % 31 30-day avg turnover US$m 4.3 Number shares on issue m 4,428 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue m 36,199 41,391 45,486 49,484 EBITDA m 1,859 3,285 3,955 4,408 EBITDA growth % -30.3 76.7 20.4 11.4 EBIT m 1,112 2,501 3,187 3,645 EBIT growth % -42.7 124.8 27.4 14.4 Reported profit m 1,703 2,417 2,749 3,071 Adjusted profit m 1,703 2,417 2,749 3,071 EPS rep Rmb 0.38 0.55 0.62 0.69 EPS rep growth % 2.0 41.9 13.7 11.7 EPS adj Rmb 0.38 0.55 0.62 0.69 EPS adj growth % 2.0 41.9 13.7 11.7 PER rep x 18.5 13.1 11.5 10.3 PER adj x 18.5 13.1 11.5 10.3 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 Total DPS Rmb 0.20 0.33 0.37 0.42 Total div yield % 2.8 4.6 5.2 5.8 1. Sinopec capex tailwind: Over the next 3-5 years we note scope for Sinopec ROA % 1.9 4.1 5.2 6.2 ROE % 6.7 9.5 11.0 12.7 (386 HK) to: (1) spend Rmb200bn cumulative capex on four major refinery EV/EBITDA x 8.3 4.7 3.9 3.5 and petchems integrated production bases, (2) potentially expand LNG regas Net debt/equity % -61.2 -66.1 -70.1 -69.9 capacity by ~10mtpa or c.$5+bn (30mtpa quoted), and (3) build gas storage. P/BV x 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 These potential orders are yet to show for SEG, and we see upside risk to the Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2018 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD) current new order annual run-rate of ~Rmb50bn, from just one customer. Earnings changes 2. An already improved order backlog: While SEG’s order backlog a few While we lift 2018-20 EPS by an average 5%: note that our years ago was skewed to ‘coal-chemicals’ projects with questionable 2018/19/20 EPS is circa 8-10% below consensus. economics, following several new order wins (fig 3), the backlog today is 2386 HK vs HSI, & rec history ~70% skewed to refining and chemical projects (fig 4). Further we note, SEG’s current order backlog covers 2.6 years of group revenue. 3. Inherent operating leverage: On our revenue / backlog consumption modelling, we note 14% / 10% / 9% growth for SEG in 2018-20e (in line with consensus). While we don’t assume any material improvement in SEG’s gross margin (fig 5), we note group EBIT margins will still rise due to largely stable admin, R&D costs. On our modelling, EBIT margin expands from a low 4% in 2017 to 7% in 2020, albeit still below ~10% achieved in 2010-13. (all figures in HKD currency unless noted) 4. Dividend upside – We estimate SEG has a $1.2bn net cash position today (- Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an 130% ND/ND&E), after adjusting for customer advances and parent loans (fig embargo period. 7). As we saw with Sinopec (386 HK), we continue to see scope for a material Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2018 special dividend. Analysts 5. Multiple upside – SEG is trading on 1.2x P/B, 5x EV-EBITDA today. While Macquarie Capital Limited Aditya Suresh, CFA +852 3922 1265 the shares appear fully valued today relative to SEG’s own trading history (fig [email protected] 8), (fig 9). we note the stock is cheap relative to global peers Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Fig 1 Sinopec Engineering Financial Summary Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Outperform Price Target: HK$11.00 P&L (Rmb, million) 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Assumptions 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E External Revenues 36,199 41,391 45,486 49,484 Brent ($/bbl) 54.7 69.5 56.8 68.8 Rmb/US$ (average) 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 EPC Contracting 2,517 2,528 3,142 3,393 Sinopec Capex (Rmb, bn) 99.4 99.2 113.5 122.5 Engg, Consulting, Licensing 881 1,165 1,372 1,510 Construction 591 993 928 1,021 Segment Forecasts (Rmb, mn) 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Equipment Manufacturing 37 39 42 44 EPC Contracting Revenue 21,056 23,801 26,181 28,276 Others -10 0 0 0 Y-o-Y change 2% 13% 10% 8% Gross Profit 4,017 4,726 5,484 5,967 EPC Contract Gross margin 12% 11% 12% 12% EBITDA 1,859 3,285 3,955 4,408 EBIT 1,112 2,501 3,187 3,645 Engg, Consult & License Revs 2,844 3,410 3,921 4,313 Finance Income 601 657 565 536 Y-o-Y change 9% 20% 15% 10% Finance Expenses -90 -102 -101 -101 EC&L Gross margin 31% 34% 35% 35% Other gains/ (losses), net 12 15 15 15 Profit Before Tax 1,635 3,070 3,665 4,095 Construction Revenue 14,601 16,870 18,557 20,413 Tax -505 -662 -916 -1,024 Y-o-Y change -22% 16% 10% 10% Effective tax rate % 31% 22% 25% 25% Construction Gross margin 4% 6% 5% 5% Net Income 1,703 2,417 2,749 3,071 Basic EPS (Rmb/sh) 0.26 0.54 0.62 0.69 Equip Manufacturing Revenue 534 569 598 628 Dividends (Rmb/sh) 0.20 0.33 0.37 0.42 Y-o-Y change 21% 7% 5% 5% Dividend Payout 78% 60% 60% 60% Manufacturing Gross margin 7% 7% 7% 7% Balance Sheet (Rmb, million) 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Order Backlog 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Cash & Equivalents 11,661 12,750 13,200 12,821 Group Order Backlog (yrs) 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 Amounts due from customers 6,053 6,053 6,053 6,053 EPC Contracting 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 Loans due from parent 15,500 14,500 13,500 12,500 Engg, Consulting, Licensing (ECL) 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 Others 18,651 20,821 20,804 20,540 Construction 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 Total Current Assets 51,865 54,125 53,558 51,914 Equipment Manufacturing 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 Property, plant and equipment 3,856 3,402 2,988 2,681 Others 3,685 3,685 3,685 3,685 Order Backlog (Rmb, mn) 91,028 98,820 102,984 105,144 Total Non-Current Assets 7,541 7,087 6,673 6,366 New Orders (Rmb, mn) 39,063 47,750 49,650 51,645 Notes and trade payables 14,020 16,103 15,926 14,439 Amounts due to customers 9,494 9,494 9,494 9,494 Ratios 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Others 7,501 7,501 7,501 7,501 ND/ND&E -123% -129% -131% -133% Total Current Liabilities 31,015 33,098 32,921 31,433 EBITDA margin 5% 8% 9% 9% Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 EBIT margin 3% 6% 7% 7% Total Shareholders Equity 25,591 25,314 24,510 24,047 Net Income margin 3% 6% 6% 6% ND/(cash), incl. loan to parent -14,101 -14,278 -13,887 -13,731 ROE 4% 10% 11% 13% ND/(cash), ex. Loan to parent -9,124 -10,214 -10,663 -10,284 ROACE 5% 12% 17% 20% Cashflows (Rmb, million) 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E CFO pre-WC changes 2,508 3,300 3,970 4,423 Valuation 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Working cap change 2,181 -87 -160 -1,223 EV/EBITDA 11.8x 5.8x 4.8x 4.4x Others -449 -461 -745 -853 EV/Backlog 0.24x 0.19x 0.18x 0.18x Cashflow from Operations 4,241 2,751 3,065 2,347 P/E 27.4x 12.2x 10.8x 9.7x Purchase of PP&E -457 -330 -355 -455 P/B 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x Others -3,345 -343 -435 -464 P/CEPS 15.0x 10.3x 9.2x 8.3x Cash Flows from Investing -3,801 -673 -790 -919 FCF Yield (Enterprise) 17% 13% 14% 10% Cash Flows from Financing -179 -988 -1,825 -1,807 Dividend Yield 3% 5% 6% 6% Net change in cash -239 1,090 450 -379 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 18 September 2018 2 Macquarie Research Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Fig 2 SEG Revenue Outlook: 11% cagr 2018-20 driven by existing EPC order backlog with Sinopec in refining, petchems Fig 3 SEG New Orders: Recent order wins skewed to refining and petchems; Sinopec’s (1) refinery and chemicals integration projects with potential Rmb 200billion capex, and (2) LNG regas capacity expansion plans, yet to show Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 18 September 2018 3 Macquarie Research Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Fig 4 SEG Order Backlog: Current order backlog covers 2.6 years of group revenue, within this backlog for SEG’s core EPC division now over 4 years Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 18 September 2018 4 Macquarie Research Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Fig 5 SEG Margin Outlook – Gross margin compression driven by EPC segment (likely related to material order book expansion); our base case assumes no meaningful gross margin improvement for 2019/20; at the EBIT line, margins modestly improve along with higher revenue Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 Fig 6 SEG EBIT Outlook – group EBIT growth driven by execution of existing refining and petchems EPC order book Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 18 September 2018 5 Macquarie Research Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Fig 7 SEG FCF vs Dividends: A substantial net cash position (adjusted for customer advances, parent loans) and steady FCF outlook likely implies upside to dividends (as we saw with parent 386 HK in Mar-18) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2018 18 September 2018 6 Macquarie Research Sinopec Engineering Group (2386 HK) Fig 8 SEG trading multiples – SEG appears fairly valued today relative to its own trading history… Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, September 2018.
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