Arctic Climate Change ATMOSPHERIC and OCEANOGRAPHIC SCIENCES LIBRARY VOLUME 43

Arctic Climate Change ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANOGRAPHIC SCIENCES LIBRARY VOLUME 43

Editors Lawrence A. Mysak, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada Kevin Hamilton, International Paciﬁ c Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, U.S.A.

Editorial Advisory Board A. Berger Université Catholique, Louvain, Belgium J.R. Garratt CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia J. Hansen MIT, Cambridge, MA, U.S.A. M. Hantel Universität Wien, Austria W. Hsieh University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada H. Kelder KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), De Bilt, The Netherlands T.N. Krishnamurti The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, U.S.A. P. Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany G.E. Swaters University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada A.J. Willmott National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, U.K. J.C. Wyngaard Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, U.S.A.

For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/5669 Peter Lemke • Hans-Werner Jacobi Editors

Arctic Climate Change

The ACSYS Decade and Beyond Editors Peter Lemke Hans-Werner Jacobi Alfred-Wegener-Institute Université Joseph Fourier-Grenoble 1/ CNRS for Polar and Marine Research Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique Postfach 12 01 61 de l’Environnement UMR 5183 27515 Bremerhaven 54, rue Molière Germany 38041 Saint-Martin d’Hères cedex [email protected] France [email protected]

ISSN 1383-8601 ISBN 978-94-007-2026-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-2027-5 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-2027-5 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York

Library of Congress Control Number: 2011943094

All Rights Reserved for Chapter 3 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microﬁ lming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied speciﬁ cally for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.

Printed on acid-free paper

Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Dedication

Dr. Victor Savtchenko (22.07.1937–15.08.2008)

This book is dedicated to the memory of Victor (Gavrilovitch) Savtchenko, a scientist and coordinator of international climate science, who, in turn, dedicated a signifi cant part of his life, knowledge and energy towards formulating the founding ideas and setting the stage for two major research projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), namely the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) and the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project. Victor was born on 22 July 1937 in Poltava in the former Soviet Union. Now this city and the region surrounding it is a part of Ukraine. In 1969 Victor completed a postgraduate course of the Leningrad Hydrometeorological Institute (at present the Russian State Hydrometeorological University), and joined the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) in Saint Petersburg. In 1970 in his successfully defended dissertation for the academic degree of the Candidate of Science, he elegantly used sophisticated mathematical apparatus for a study of internal waves in fl uids. This project solidifi ed the characteristic style of his research that combined an accurate mathematical description of the simplifi ed but essential features of complex pheno- mena with a deep and all-embracing understanding of their overarching complexity. Victor has kept this style of scientifi c investigation for his entire life and it proved to be particularly fruitful in theoretical studies of ocean and atmosphere interactions. Because of his affi liation with AARI, all scientifi c work of Victor had a strong focus on the role of the Arctic and Southern Oceans in climate variability and change. For more than a decade Victor was the head of the Modelling Laboratory in the AARI’s Department of Ocean – Atmosphere Interactions. He participated in several fi eld expeditions to the Arctic and Antarctic. Main results of his studies are summarised in the Doctor of Science thesis, defended in 1989, in a well-known monograph ‘Impact of heat fl uxes from the ocean on oscillations of climate in high latitudes’ (co-authored with close colleague Andrey Nagurny), and in over 60 research articles in leading scientifi c journals. In 1978, Victor started to work for the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, serving as senior scientifi c offi cer of the Global Atmospheric Research Programme, until 1981, and, in 1989–1999, as senior scientifi c offi cer of WCRP. His scientifi c insight and managerial support were decisive in the establishment of

v vi Dedication the WCRP Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS). In the 1990s, while ACSYS was still underway, Victor started to work on a new global project to address the role of frozen water in the climate system. He was the one who recalled the now famous term ‘cryosphere’ and insisted on including it in the title of the new project, the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC). Victor was a kind, sensitive, and modest person. Even for those who knew him well, it may come as a surprise that this very serious scientist and seasoned program manager had a charming hobby of collecting toy owls. Victor Savtchenko passed away on 15 August 2008 in Divonne-Les-Bains, France, at the age of 71. We are very grateful to Victor for his devoted service to climate and polar science and for his very signiﬁ cant contributions to founding ACSYS and CliC, two successful projects of the WCRP.

Geneva Vladimir Ryabinin Foreword

The Arctic is a region of rapid changes caused by global warming, resulting in rising atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, and declining sea ice cover and thickness, with signifi cant impacts on ecosystems and human settlements. Therefore, a better understanding of climate processes in the Arctic is fundamental to assess major impacts of these changes in the Arctic and within the entire Earth system due to a variety of feedback processes. The ACSYS project was fundamental in raising the awareness of the role of the Arctic in the global climate system. It has greatly advanced our understanding of the processes acting in the Arctic due to development of improved observing systems, using both in situ and remote sensing techniques, and numerical models describing the various components of the climate system and their interaction. ACSYS activated nearly 250 scientists from 19 countries for its fi nal conference, with many more researchers, who participated in the respective fi eld work and modelling activities. ACSYS was designed as a ten-year project, which started in 1994 and fi nished at the end of 2003. It has provided a valuable legacy of data sets, model components and understanding, which is used as a basis for ongoing research within the frame- work of the bi-polar Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project of the WCRP, as well as for many projects during the International Polar Year 2007–2009. This book represents an account of this legacy and its relevance for current Arctic climate research. We express our thanks to the impressive number of scientists that have contributed to the success of the ACSYS project. This book could not have been realised without the huge support of the authors who submitted their chapters for this volume. We further acknowledge the following scientists for their help in reviewing the individual chapters of this book: Sabine Attinger (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany), Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen (Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark), Klaus Dethloff (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany), Wolfgang Dierking (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany), Peter S. Guest (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA), Stefan Hagemann (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), Peter M. Haugan (University of Bergen, Norway), Daniela Jacob (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg,

vii viii Foreword

Germany), Thomas Jung (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany), Johann Jungclaus (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), Wolfram Mauser (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Germany), Jens Meincke (University of Hamburg, Germany), Michael Tjernström (Arrhenius Laboratory, Stockholm, Sweden), Leif Toudal Pedersen (Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark), Joachim Reuder (University of Bergen, Norway), Erich Roeckner (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), Valery Vuglinsky (State Hydrological Institute of Roshydromet, St. Petersburg, Russia) and Michael Winton (Princeton University, USA).

Peter Lemke Hans-Werner Jacobi Contents

1 The Origins of ACSYS ...... 1 Victor Savtchenko

Part I Observations

2 Advances in Arctic Atmospheric Research...... 11 James E. Overland and Mark C. Serreze 3 Sea-Ice Observation: Advances and Challenges ...... 27 Humfrey Melling 4 Observations in the Ocean ...... 117 Bert Rudels, Leif Anderson, Patrick Eriksson, Eberhard Fahrbach, Martin Jakobsson, E. Peter Jones, Humfrey Melling, Simon Prinsenberg, Ursula Schauer, and Tom Yao 5 Observed Hydrological Cycle ...... 199 Hermann Mächel, Bruno Rudolf, Thomas Maurer, Stefan Hagemann, Reinhard Hagenbrock, Lev Kitaev, Eirik J. Førland, Vjacheslav Rasuvaev, and Ole Einar Tveito 6 Interaction with the Global Climate System ...... 247 T.A. McClimans, G.V. Alekseev, O.M. Johannessen, and M.W. Miles

Part II Modelling

7 Mesoscale Modelling of the Arctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Its Interaction with Sea Ice ...... 279 Christof Lüpkes, Timo Vihma, Gerit Birnbaum, Silke Dierer, Thomas Garbrecht, Vladimir M. Gryanik, Micha Gryschka, Jörg Hartmann, Günther Heinemann, Lars Kaleschke, Siegfried Raasch, Hannu Savijärvi, K. Heinke Schlünzen, and Ulrike Wacker

ix x Contents

8 Arctic Regional Climate Models ...... 325 K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, A. Lynch, W. Dorn, S. Saha, and D. Handorf 9 Progress in Hydrological Modeling over High Latitudes: Under Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) ...... 357 Dennis P. Lettenmaier and Fengge Su 10 Sea-Ice–Ocean Modelling ...... 381 Rüdiger Gerdes and Peter Lemke 11 Global Climate Models and 20th and 21st Century Arctic Climate Change ...... 405 Cecilia M. Bitz, Jeff K. Ridley, Marika Holland, and Howard Cattle 12 ACSYS: A Scientiﬁ c Foundation for the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project ...... 437 Konrad Steffen, Daqing Yang, Vladimir Ryabinin, and Ghassem Asrar

Index ...... 461 Contributors

G. V. Alekseev AARI , St. Petersburg , Russia, [email protected] Leif Anderson Department of Chemistry , University of Gothenburg , SE-41296 Göteborg , Sweden, [email protected] Ghassem Asrar World Climate Research Programme, c/o WMO Secretariat, 7bis, Avenue de la Paix, CP2300, Geneva 2, CH-1211 , Switzerland, [email protected] Gerit Birnbaum Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Cecilia M. Bitz Atmospheric Sciences , University of Washington , Seattle , WA , USA, [email protected] Howard Cattle National Oceanography Centre , Southampton , UK, [email protected] K. Dethloff Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit Potsdam , Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam , Germany, [email protected] Silke Dierer Meteorological Institute, Centre for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg , Germany, [email protected] W . D o r n Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit Potsdam , Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam , Germany, [email protected] Patrick Eriksson Finnish Meteorological Institute , P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki , Finland, Patrick.Eriksson@fmi.ﬁ Eberhard Fahrbach Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research , P.O. Box 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Eirik J. Førland The Norwegian Meteorological Institute , P.O. Box 43, Blindern 0313 Oslo , Norway, [email protected] Thomas Garbrecht OPTIMARE Sensorsysteme GmbH & Co. KG , Am Luneort 15a, D-27572 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected]

xi xii Contributors

Rüdiger Gerdes Sea Ice Physics, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bussestr. 24, 27570 Bremerhaven, [email protected] Vladimir M. Gryanik Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Micha Gryschka Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz University of Hannover , D-30419 Hannover , Germany, [email protected] Stefan Hagemann Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology , Bundesstraße 53, D-20146 Hamburg , Germany, [email protected] Reinhard Hagenbrock WetterOnline Meteorologische Dienstleistungen GmbH , Am Rheindorfer Ufer 2, D-53117 Bonn , Germany, ReinhardHagenbrock@ wetteronline.de D. Handorf Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam , Germany, [email protected] Jörg Hartmann Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research , Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Günther Heineman n Department of Environmental Meteorology , University Trier , D-54286 Trier , Germany, [email protected] Marika Holland National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder , CO , USA, [email protected] Martin Jakobsson Department of Geological Sciences , Stockholm University , SE-10691 Stockholm , Sweden, [email protected] O. M. Johannessen NERSC , 5059 Bergen , Norway, [email protected] E. Peter Jones Department of Fisheries and Oceans , Bedford Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 1006, Dartmouth NS B2Y 4A2, Canada, Peter.Jones@ dfo-mpo.gc.ca Lars Kaleschke Institute of Oceanography , University of Hamburg , Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg , Germany, [email protected] Lev Kitaev Institute of Geography RAS , Staromonetniy 29, 109017 Moscow , Russia, [email protected] Peter Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research , Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Washington , 164 Wilcox Hall, Box 352700 , Seattle , WA 98195-2700 , USA, [email protected] Christof Lüpkes Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research , Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Contributors xiii

A. Lynch School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne , VIC 3800 , Australia, [email protected] Hermann Mächel German Weatherservice , Frankfurter Str. 135, D-63067 Offenbach , Germany, [email protected] Thomas Maurer Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), Am Mainzer Tor 1, D-56002 Koblenz, Germany, [email protected] T. A. McClimans SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture , 7465 Trondheim , Norway, [email protected] Humfrey Melling Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada, V8L 4B2, [email protected] M. W. Miles Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway and Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder, USA ESARC, Boulder, CO, USA, [email protected] James E. Overland NOAA/Pacifi c Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle , WA 98115-6349 , USA, [email protected] Simon Prinsenberg Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Bedford Institute of Oceanography , P.O. Box 1006 , Dartmouth NS B2Y 4A2 , Canada, Simon.Prinsenberg@ dfo-mpo.gc.ca Siegfried Raasch Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz University of Hannover , D-30419 Hannover , Germany, [email protected] Vjacheslav Rasuvaev All-Russian Scientifi c Research Institute of the Hydrological and Meteorological Information – World Data Center , Koroleva 6 , Obninsk 249020 , Russia, [email protected] Jeff K. Ridley Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Offi ce , Exeter , UK, jeff.ridley@metoffi ce.gov.uk A. Rinke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit Potsdam , Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam , Germany, Annette. [email protected] Bert Rudels Department of Physics , University of Helsinki , P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki , Finland Finnish Meteorological Institute , P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki , Finland, bert.rudels@helsinki.fi ; bert.rudels@fmi.fi Bruno Rudolf German Weatherservice , Frankfurter Str. 135 , Offenbach D-63067 , Germany, [email protected] Vladimir Ryabinin World Climate Research Programme, c/o WMO Secretariat , 7bis, Avenue de la Paix, CP2300 , Geneva 2 , CH-1211 , Switzerland, [email protected] S. Saha C & H Division , Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology , Pune 411008 , India, [email protected] xiv Contributors

Hannu Savijärvi Department of Physics , University of Helsinki , P.O. Box 64, 00014 Helsinki , Finland, hannu.sarvijarvi@helsinki.fi Victor Savtchenko Deceased 15 August 2008 Ursula Schauer Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, P.O. Box 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] K. Heinke Schlünzen Meteorological Institute, Centre for Marine and Climate Research , University of Hamburg , Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg , Germany, [email protected] Mark C. Serreze CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder , CO 80309-0449 , USA Konrad Steffen University of Colorado, CIRES , Campus Box 216, Boulder , CO 80309 , USA, [email protected] Fengge Su Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.18, Shuangqing Rd., Beijing 100085 , China, [email protected] Ole Einar Tveito The Norwegian Meteorological Institute , P.O. Box 43, Blindern 0313 Oslo , Norway, [email protected] Timo Vihma Finnish Meteorological Institute , P.O. Box 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki , Finland, timo.vihma@fmi.fi Ulrike Wacker Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Postfach 120161, D-27515 Bremerhaven , Germany, [email protected] Daqing Yang CliC International Project Offi ce , Norwegian Polar Institute , Polarmiljøsenteret, NO-9296 , Tromso , Norway, [email protected] T o m Y a o 3989 W 18th Ave, Vancouver , BC , Canada V6S 1B6, [email protected]