Market Survey Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics Hamburg

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MARKet Survey Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics Hamburg

2016/Q1-4

GrossmannQ4 & Berger’s promise: Market surveys. Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics hamburg 2016/Q1-4

Key Facts | Industrial

Take-up of space Share of owner-occupiers Premium rent mth (net) Average rent mth (net) (Net) Prime yield

whole of 2016, was Amazon’s rental of around 64,000 m² of space “Seven of a total of twelve con- in the “Logistikpark Hamburg 1” to create a new logistics centre tracts for over 10,000 square me- (Borgwardstrasse 10, South-East environs). The second-biggest transaction of the year was the construction start for food dis- tres were concluded in the fourth counter Netto, which is building a 35,000 m² logistics and warehousing centre plus 3,000 m² of office space in Henstedt-Ulzburg quarter.” (Heideweg, North West Environs). The third-biggest transaction Stefan Harder | Head of Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics of the year, likewise signed in the 4th quarter, was Eupen Logis- tik’s rental agreement for 26,900 m² of hall space at the Alten- werder port terminal, plus 1,700 m² of office space (Am Altenw- Take-Up of Space erder Kirchtal 1-3, Hamburg South). Second-highest take-up since 2011 Take-up of space Take-up of space in industrial, warehousing and logistics prop- 2012–2016/Q1-4 | in 000s m² | incl. owner-occupiers erties in Hamburg and the environs totalled some 665,000 m² at the close of 2016. This represents a 13% increase on 2015, which 10-year average (2007-2016): was already a very good year. The result was the second-highest approx. 508,000 m² ever posted in Hamburg apart from 2011, when take-up reached Q4 740,000 m². The 4th quarter made the crucial difference, be- 265 cause 265,000 m² of take-up was the highest ever recorded for one quarter. This above-average value was due above all to the fact that seven of year’s twelve contracts for more than 10,000 m² were signed in the 4th quarter. Owner-occupiers accounted for a share of 18%, far below the 28% returned a year ago.

Year on year, the number of rental agreements and owner-oc- 560 450 453 590 665 cupier contracts fell by 18% in 2016 to 155 (2015: 190). The biggest agreement completed in the 4th quarter, indeed in the 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Grossmann & Berger Research www.grossmann-berger.de | page 2 Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics hamburg 2016/Q1-4

SelecteD Top Contracts 2016/Q1-4

Take-up of space Almost half of the take-up of space (49%) involved premises of- 2016/Q1-4 | in m² | by size and no. of lettings fering over 10,000 m²; this size category grew by a huge 91%. The Take-up of space next most popular categories were the two mid-sized segments, No. of lettings from 5,001 to 10,000 m² and from 3.001 to 5,000 m², which accounted for 20% and 15% of take-up of space respectively.

Since eleven of the twelve agreements in 2016 for over 10,000 m² of space were signed by companies in the trade/retail and logistics/haulage sectors, this section of industry dominated take-up, as it had in 2015. The lion’s share was taken by trade/ retail, which posted 44% of the total including five big-scale agreements. Logistics/haulage companies were responsible for six large transactions and a 36% share of space taken up. Man- 59 40 25 19 12 ufacturing/industry/trades&crafts accounted for 12% of total take-up and one of the large-sized agreements. This trans- 6 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 49 % 39,000 68,000 100,000 133,000 325,000 action was the rental of about 15,200 m² of hall space and 900

up to up to up to up to over m² of office space on an industrial estate in Elmenhorst, agreed 1,000 3,000 5,000 10,000 10,001 in the 4th quarter with Reisswolf, a company specializing in the Source: Grossmann & Berger Research destruction of files and data (Irwin-Helford-Strasse 2, East En- virons).

Take-up of space Greater numbers of tenants and owner-occupiers chose space 2016/Q1-4 | by industry in the environs, where 57% of take-up was registered. By the close of 2015, some 70% of agreements had been concluded for space within Hamburg city limits. The most popular sub-markets

Other 8% were Hamburg East and South East Environs, each with 20% of Production/ industry/ the market. Essentially this was due to the Amazon contract for trades & crafts 12% a very large amount of space in the South East Environs, as already mentioned, and to three big agreements in Hamburg East Trade 44% totalling 43,000 m². Hamburg South and North West Environs registered 18% and 15% of total take-up respectively, thanks to the second and third-biggest agreements that were noted earlier. Part of the high level of take-up in the North West Environs was Logistics 36% due to Tramaco, a specialist firm for chemical foaming agents and adhesion promoters, which bought premises in Tornesch (Lise-Meitner-Alle 8) for its own use. A contract was signed for some 5,700 m² of industrial space and 1,100 m² of offices. Source: Grossmann & Berger Research www.grossmann-berger.de | page 3 Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics hamburg 2016/Q1-4

RENTS Premium rents rise

2016 closed with average rents for industrial, warehousing and Take-up of space logistics space in Hamburg standing unchanged at €4.80/m²/ 2016/Q1-4 | in m² | by rent and no. of lettings month. The premium rent, by contrast, climbed €0.10 to €5.80/ Take-up of space m²/month. No. of lettings

Investment Collapse in transaction volume

By the close of 2016 investors had spent €154m on logistics and industrial properties in Hamburg. Year on year, the volume of transactions plummeted by 57%. The steep decline was caused by the shortage of available land for commercial building within 8 35 19 10 38 24 21 the city limits. In addition, many new builds are transferred to the developer’s in-house investment vehicles and do not come onto 8 % 38 % 8 % 5 % 18 % 18 % 5 % 50,500 254,700 53,200 33,300 119,700 121,000 32,600 the markets.

up to up to up to up to over Owner- n/a 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 5.50 occup. The prime net yield* for logistics and industrial properties con- Source: Grossmann & Berger Research tinued its downwards spiral, ending at 4.90% or 50 basis points below the figure seen a year ago. Premium and average rent 2012–2016/Q4 | in €/m²/mth (net) Outlook Premium rent Speculative new builds on the rise 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.60 5.70 In the second half of 2016 the last remaining available large sites in Winsen and Hamburg-Neuland were let to Amazon and DP 4.90 4.80 4.80 DHL, and the result is an even more acute shortage of commercial 4.70 4.60 building land inside Hamburg city limits and in the surrounding Average rent districts. In core locations, there are still some building lots sized between 20,000 and 30,000 m² available. No commercial sites inside Hamburg that will accommodate large developments are expected until 2019 or later. Therefore developers and owner-occupiers are now taking a closer look at brownfield sites. Buoyed 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016/Q4 by the positive trends on the market, some developers are in- Source: Grossmann & Berger Research tending to erect new builds that are partly speculative. Due to the big development that DP DHL plans in Hamburg-Neuland, Prime yields with construction projected to begin in the second half of the 2012–2016/Q4 | (net) initial yield | in % year, take-up of between 575,000 and 600,000 square metres is forecast for the year 2017. 7. 2 0 7. 2 0 Logistics 6.90

6.00 6.00

4.70 4.50 4.50

Office/Retail 4.00 4.00 * To make figures more readily comparable, Grossmann & Berger switched from stating initial prime yields at their gross rate to the net rate 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016/Q2 as of the 4th quarter of 2016. Source: Grossmann & Berger Research www.grossmann-berger.de | page 4 Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics Groß Niendorf Hohenfelde Kaltenkirchen Sievershütten hamburg 2016/Q1-4 Reinfeld Lutzhorn 21

Bad Oldesloe Horst 7 Itzstedt

Sülfeld 23 Langeln Overview of Industrial/Logistics Sub-marketNahes Hamburg and environ1 s Barmstedt 2016/Q1-4 Henstedt-Ulzburg Westerau Pölitz

Elmshorn Hemdingen Elmenhorst Beyren Kayhude

Bargteheide ENVIRONS Tangstedt NORTH-EAST Ellerhop Quickborn Wohlsdorf- Ohlstedt ENVIRONS Steinburg Ammersbek NORTH-WEST Duvenstedt Tornesch Norderstedt Todendorf 1 Uetersen Lemsahl- Mellingstedt Tangstedt Schönberg Moorrege 7 Bergstedt Pinneberg 23 Ahrensburg

Poppen- Hoisdorf Langenhorn büttel Hummels- Rellingen büttel Volksdorf Großhansdorf CITY Sasel Ellerbek Lütjensee NORTH- Wellingsbüttel Fuhlsbüttel Schnellsen Halstenbek WEST Holm Niendorf Ohlsdorf Rahlstedt Steils- Bramfeld Eidelstedt Groß- Hettlingen Schenefeld borstel hoop Farmsen- Großensee Trittau Alsterdorf Berne Stapelfeld Rissen Hamfelde Lurup Lokstedt Eppen- Winterhude CITY NORTH-EAST dorf Barmbek- Linau Stellingen Nord Tonndorf 1 Sülldorf Hoheluft g West Ost Barmbek- Dulsber Iserbrook Bahrenfeld Osdorf Harveste- Süd Wandsbek Barsbüttel hude Eimsbüttel Uhlen- Jenfeld Wedel horst Witzhave CITY WEST Rother- Eilbek Marienthal 24 Groß- Altona- Stern- 24 Kasseburg Blankenese Flottbek Nord baum Hohen- schanze felde Hamm St. Borg- -Nord Otten- St. Pauli Georg Horn Nienstedten felde -Mitte Othmarschen sen Neustadt Altona- HH- Billstedt Süd Altstadt Hammer- -Süd Glinde brook Hafencity Oststeinbek Cranz Rothen- Jork Steinwerder Kleiner burgsort Grasbrook Billbrook Finkenwerder Aumühle Veddel 1 26 Lohbrügge Reinbek Schwarzenbek Francop Altenwerder Moorfleet Neuenfelde ENVIRONS EAST Wilhelmsburg Billwerder CITY SOUTH Spaden- Wentorf Moorburg land Taten- Bergedorf Allermöhe Neugraben- berg Amt Hohe Fischbek 25 7 Elbgeest Hausbruch

Buxtehude Reitbrook Heimfeld Neu Harburg Neuland Ochsenwerder Curslack Wulmstorf 1 Neuengamme Eißendorf Gut Moor Wilstorf Geesthacht Rosengarten CITY EAST Altengamme Gülzow Apensen Langen- Rönne- Marmstorf burg beck Kirchwerder Elstorf Sinstorf

Marschacht ENVIRONS Drage 261 SOUTH-WEST 7 Tespe

Stelle Mienenbüttel 1 Seevetal 39 Arlenburg Helmstorf Winsen (Luhe) ENVIRONS

Wenzendorf SOUTH-EAST 1 Barum

Bendestorf Wittorf Buchholz

39 Heidenau Take-up of space Year-on-year Hamfelde Radbruch Average rent Jesteburg in m² incl. Share change Linau No. of Share in €/m²/mth Sub-market owner-occupiers in % in % Garstedt lettings in % (net 7 Adendorf 1 City westTostedt 20,600 3 -42 17 11 5.90 Vögelsen 2 City north-west 12,600 2 -15 Vierhöfen8 5 5.30

Hanstedt 3 City north-east 5,300 1 -82 Kasseburg 8 5 4.30 Lüneburg 4 City east 129,800 20 -24 45 29 4.60 Welle Garlstorf 5 City South 121,000 18 -23 23 15 5.60

Total City Area 289,300 44 -29 101 65 5.20 6 Environs North-West 97,100 15 +65 25 16 4.40 7 Environs North-East 27,300 4 +7 5 3 - 8 Environs East 29,900 5 +15 8 5 3.80 9 Environs South-East 132,300 20 +918 3 2 4.20 10 Environs South-West 89,100 13 +46 13 8 4.10

Total Environs 375,700 57 +104 54 35 4.20 Total 665,000 100 +13 155 100 4.80 www.grossmann-berger.de | page 5 Commercial | Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics hamburg 2016/Q1-4

Skilled consultancy Services and contacts

From left to right: Felix Krumreich | Carolin Grabenhorst (Assistant) | Stefan Harder | Nico Beckmann

What can we do for you? Stefan Harder | Head of Industrial, Warehouse, Logistics An analysis of the property markets is an important part of the Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 592 wide-ranging consultancy services offered by Grossmann & Mail: [email protected] Berger. We would be pleased to be of assistance in your deci- sion-making process and can draft an offer that is tailored to your Nico Beckmann | Real estate consultant specific requirements. Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 530 Mail: [email protected]

Felix Krumreich | Real estate consultant Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 528 GlossarY Mail: [email protected] Definitions, industrial/logistics market

Take-up of space: Take-up of space is the total of all space newly let plus that sold to apportionable ancillary costs and the gross purchase price (net purchase price plus or built by an owner-occupier during the period under review. The operative date for land acquisition tax, notary’s fees and agency commission.) inclusion in the statistics is the date on which the lease or purchase agreement was signed. Lease renewals are not counted as take-up. Areas are stated on the basis of Transaction volume: The transaction volume is the sum of the purchase prices of all the guide for calculating the rental area in commercial leases (MF/G). commercial property sold in Hamburg during the period under review. The date of signing determines when a transaction is included in the statistics. Buy to let invest- Premium rent: The premium rent is that paid for the most expensive 3% of the mar- ments in residential properties are not included in the transaction volume. ket for new lets (not counting owner-occupiers) during the 12 months just ended and is stated as the average of such rents. Photo credits: Cover: Port panorama © Shutterstock, page 2: High-bay storage © Shutterstock Average rent: The average rent paid is calculated by taking the individual rents We draw your attention to the fact that all statements made here are non-binding. Most of agreed in all leases signed over the past 12 months, weighting them by the amount the information is based on third-party reports. The sole intention of this market survey is to of space rented and computing the mean value. Figures refer to nominal net rents provide general infomation for our clients. ex services. Grossmann & Berger GmbH • Bleichenbrücke 9 (Bleichenhof) • D - 20354 Hamburg Prime yield: The prime yield is the initial return attainable on a property that has Tel.: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 0 • Fax: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 36 [email protected] • www.grossmann-berger.de been let on normal market terms (tenants with good credit ratings), has top quality structure and fit-out and stands in one of the very best locations. It is stated as the Managing directors: Andreas Rehberg, Holger Michaelis, Lars Seidel, Axel Steinbrinker Chairman of the supervisory board: Dr. Jörg Wildgruber net initial yield in per cent, i.e. the ratio between the annual rental income less non- Registered office Hamburg • Registered at Hamburg no. B 25866