Human Rating for Future Spaceflight a Roundtable Discussion

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Human rating for future spaceflight A roundtable discussion

Emerging regionals crowd a flat market T minus 15 years...and holding

APUBLICATIONOFTHEAMERICANINSTITUTEOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS toc.JUL2010.rev.qxd:AA Template 6/25/10 12:36 PM Page 1

July/August 2010

DEPARTMENTS EDITORIAL 3 Page 8 The human factor.

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Flying gets personal in Europe/Correspondence. Page 12 WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Gearing up for budgetary battles.

VIEW FROM HERE 12 T minus 15 years...and holding.

AIRCRAFT UPDATE 16 Emerging regionals crowd a flat market. Page 16 ELECTRONICS UPDATE 20 Defense electronics: The spigot is not closing.

ASIA UPDATE 24 Japan’s solar sail heads starward.

OUT OF THE PAST 48 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 52

Page 24 FEATURES HUMAN RATING FOR FUTURE SPACEFLIGHT 26 AIAA held a roundtable to discuss the ramifications of human rating spacecraft for commercial space transportation.

TUNNEL 9:A NATIONAL TREASURE REBORN 42 Barely spared from extinction, Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel Number 9 reemerges from upgrades to serve as the nation’s premier facility for hypersonic testing. by Mark Lewis

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Calls for Papers B19

COVER Whatever the next generation of human space transportation systems look like,human-rating requirements will be a driving force in their development.Follow the discussion on human rating,beginning on page 26. Page 42

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Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor The human factor Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin As has been noted before, in February 2010, President Obama released his NASA budget proposal calling for the cancellation of the Constellation pro- Correspondents gram, which was developing a series of launch vehicles and crew modules to Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe replace the space shuttle. Instead, he called on private industry to provide the Michael Westlake, Hong Kong next generation of rockets and crew vehicles that would enable the continued human exploration of space. Contributing Writers Now, several months later, the battle over this proposal is still being waged Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, Marco Cáceres, Philip Finnegan, Edward in the Congress. Some of the fight is no doubt political, driven as much by the Flinn, Tom Jones, Théo Pirard, David determination to save local jobs as by a passion for space exploration. Some Rockwell, Frank Sietzen, J.R. Wilson congressmen, and other interested parties, have registered their belief that NASA is the only appropriate venue for developing the tools by which the U.S. Fitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and Design will be able to maintain its leadership position in manned space exploration. But even as the debate roils, some commercial enterprises are continuing Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution their development of systems meant to provide paying customers, perhaps in- Mark Lewis, President cluding the U.S. government, transport to the space station and elsewhere. Robert S. Dickman, Publisher Other ventures are at a crossroads, unsure that a sound business case can be STEERING COMMITTEE made for moving beyond hauling cargo. No doubt economic and technical Michael B. Bragg, University of Illinois; questions will both weigh heavily in determining whether their efforts should Philip Hattis, Draper Laboratory; Mark S. extend to providing human transport. Maurice, AFOSR; Laura McGill, Raytheon; Regardless of the outcome of the congressional skirmishes, and whichever Merri Sanchez, National Aeronautics and companies determine that they should proceed, it is the human factor that will Space Administration; Mary Snitch, Lock- dominate the design decisions for the next generation of rockets. Whether built heed Martin; David W. Thompson, Orbital for or by NASA or private enterprise, no matter how sound the launch vehicle EDITORIAL BOARD is, it must be taken the extra mile to be human rated. Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics; On May 24, AIAA held a roundtable to discuss what human rating the Jean-Michel Contant, EADS; Eugene next-generation space transportation system will entail, along with a look back Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- at what lessons can be gleaned from the space shuttle and the Russian Soyuz. ogy; L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Texas A&M Uni- That discussion, which has been captured within these pages, is just the begin- versity; Michael Francis, United Technologies; ning of the dialogue. NASA’s request for information, which may have rolled Christian Mari, Teuchos; Cam Martin, out as you read this, will set some fundamental requirements for human rating, NASA Dryden; Don Richardson, Donrich Research; Douglas Yazell, Honeywell but will invite all interested parties to offer comments, questions, rebuttals, and alternatives as the industry tries to move forward. ADVERTISING In this roundtable you will find a deeply thought out discussion about how National Display and Classified: the criteria for human rating are established, what the requirements should be, Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 and who the players are who will make the final decisions. One point that [email protected] quickly emerges is the importance of the partnership between the public and West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, private sectors in establishing the various paths to achieving human rating. 949.361.1870 / [email protected] In this conversation, all of the interested parties—NASA; the FAA, which Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 must license any commercial launch; private industry—have made it clear that Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA safety must be their number one priority. The twin space shuttle tragedies are 20191-4344. Changes of address should be never far from the thoughts of everyone involved. However, it becomes equally sent to Customer Service at the same address, clear that safety issues cannot be allowed to overwhelm the process. Overregu- by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax at lation can easily lead to stasis.The safest launch vehicle may indeed be the one 703/264-7606. that never leaves the ground, but it also serves no one’s interests. Send Letters to the Editor to Elaine Camhi at the same address or [email protected] Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief July-August 2010, Vol. 48, No. 7 BEATlayout.qxd:AA Template 6/21/10 1:15 PM Page 2

FlyinggetspersonalinEurope

In FEBrUAry oF THIS yEAr, THE EUroPEAn member of the Polish Institute of Avia- with pilot numbers falling and small air- Commission announced the launch of a tion, pointed out in a presentation at the fields facing closure. €4.4-million 30-month research pro- 2008 Berlin ILA air show, this will only The EC added general aviation to its gram examining the development of a be possible through the development of portfolio of interests in early 2008, inte- personal air vehicle. The Personal Plane a high-density network of airports, the grating the industry within its transport (PPlane) program involves 13 European agenda. However, despite the prospect research organizations looking at the of the commission promoting the sale of technology and infrastructure chal- 90,000 new general aviation air- lenges in developing small auto- craft in the continent over the mobile-size aircraft able to de- next nine years, there are still liver the benefits of speed some concerns about the and routing efficiencies involvement of state bod- possible only via a direct-to- ies in general aviation air- destination flight. craft programs. It is a small but signifi- “I’m skeptical,” notes cant piece of research work, Guy Lachlan, chief executive and fits within a much larger of the British Business and concept being evaluated within the General Aviation Association. continent for developing new transport “Governments should concentrate on links, primarily within central and east- developing programs such as the Single ern Europe, much along the lines of availability of new air traffic manage- European Sky and solving airport access nASA’s Small Aircraft Transportation ment (ATM) technology, and technically issues rather than involving themselves System of a few years ago. advanced aircraft. in industrial issues. After all, very light jet According to the EC, “Some recent [VLJ] developments have all been under- EPATS and general aviation studies conclude that smaller aircraft ex- taken by private companies.” This European equivalent is EPATS, or hibiting individual characteristics will play However, the development of per- European Personal Air Transport System a greater role in air transportation in or- sonal transport vehicles is now firmly on (http://www.epats.eu), a study group der to avoid increasing congestion on the EC’s agenda. According to commis- that has developed a long-term road European roads. The PPlane project em- sion project officer José Hernandez, map for the development of a personal phasizes environmentally responsible de- PPlane is part of the agency’s brief air transport system based on new-tech- sign, including noise and gas emission within its aeronautics strategy of “pio- nology light aircraft. The EPATS group reduction, green propulsion, and energy neering revolutionary” projects that will has studied the challenges and implica- efficiency, and is expected to increase pave the way for future European based tions of growing Europe’s general avia- savings and sustainability on one hand, air transport systems. tion fleet by up to 90,000 new personal and decrease overall traffic environmen- aircraft by 2020—56% of which would tal impact on the other, resulting from a be piston engine aircraft, 18% turbo- more efficient travel.” PPlane project partners props, and 26% jets—and flying 43 mil- PPlane research will examine afford- The PPlane project is being led by Claude Le lion flights a year, to meet the transport ability, technology availability, social ac- Tallec of ONERA (France), assisted by Moshe needs of central Europe. ceptance, and regulatory issues. For Harel of Intergam Communications (Israel). Much of the rationale behind the per- many in Europe’s beleaguered general PPlane’s consortium members comprise Israel Aerospace Industries (Israel), AIRNET (Slove- sonal aircraft initiative has derived from a aviation industry, the involvement by the nia), Bologna University and CIRA (Italy), study the EPATS group compiled show- European Union in efforts to promote Brno University (Czech Republic), Warsaw ing that, for many countries, developing general aviation concepts is a welcome University of Technology (Poland), German a transport system based on small per- change. There are around 50,000 mo- Aerospace Center DLR (Germany), Instituto sonal aircraft will be cheaper, more effi- tor-powered general and business avia- Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial (Spain), cient, and less environmentally damag- tion aircraft in Europe, with a further National Aerospace Laboratory NLR (Nether- ing than building huge new networks of 180,000 microlight and non-motor- lands), University of Patras (Greece), and motorways. But as Krzysztof Piwek, powered aircraft. But in many parts of REA-TECH Engineering (Hungary). The re- EPATS study project coordinator and a the continent the industry is in trouble, search will last 30 months.

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TRANSPORT PROPERTIES COMPARISON Travel of more than 200 km,Polish road conditions

Properties Units Automobile Light propeller Single-engine jet- aircraft driven aircraft Empty vehicle weight Kilograms 1,300 800 1,500 Average travel speed Kilometers/hour 70 300 600 Average effective fuel consumption Liters/100 km 9 14 40 per 100 km Average fuel consumption Liters/pass.-km 6.4 5 14 per passenger-km Operational life Years 15 20 25 Fatalities rate Number of fatalities 0.460 0.055 0.045 per 100 million pass.-km Vehicle price U.S.dollars 25,000 50,000 400,000 Vehicle-km cost Dollars per vehicle-km 0.4 0.6 0.9 Passenger-km cost Dollars per pass.-km 0.3 0.2 0.3 External costs Dollars per pass.-km 0.06 0.01 0.01 Time of training to achieve the skill Hours 25 50 50 to control vehicle at the level necessary to individual trips Percentage of adult population able to 80 50 40 drive the vehicle Operational availability:annual number 98 80 90 of trips realized as % of planned trips Average distance to the vehicle Kilometers 0 20 20 parking area Stress level on a 1-10 scale 96 7 (10 = high stress) Daily radius of action Kilometers 150 600 1,400 Time of a 500-km business trip Hours 60 12 8 Number of vehicles needed to 60,000 1,900 680 realize 1 billion pass.-km Additional ground area,occupied by Hectares 81,000 No additional No additional roads and car parks needed to realize area needed; area needed; transport work of 1 billion pass.-km underused underused airports will airports will be used be used Saved pass.time on 1 billion Hours 0 9.7 million 11.4 million pass.-km hours

Source:EPATS.

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NASA’s Puffin will be electric powered. possible to fly complex ap- traffic. This would be the level in which proach and departure personal air vehicles could operate. routes, avoiding populated “It is easy to dismiss these ideas as areas. There would be nothing more than science fiction—the enough airport capacity; ’50s vision of life in 2020—but the bene- each GA airport could han- fits for those that need access to Western dle around 140,000 passen- Europe are huge, and the payback in gers annually, based on 1.4 terms of that access immediate,” accord- passengers per aircraft—and ing to Andrew Charlton, a Geneva based there are about six times as aviation legal consultant to the ATM many airports available for industry. EVTS compared to airliners. “The rate-determining step will be in- The project is based on the findings The researchers are also optimistic frastructure, not aeronautics. These of previous European research and de- about the availability of an appropriate plans will call for a huge investment in velopment projects, including Out-of-the- airborne collision avoidance system. airspace management. But that need not Box, a study funded by the EC as part of “When an aircraft is equipped with an just be a question of money. There is, as the Advisory Council for Aeronautic Re- ADS-B transceiver, the pilot is able to ever, also a need for intelligent regula- search in Europe initiative; the Single see all ADS-B-equipped aircraft and TIS- tion. It is worth remembering that the European Sky ATM Research program; B [Traffic Information Service-Broadcast] explosion in car usage called for rules and the Innovative Operational UAS In- aircraft. Therefore it is very easy to make and regulations, some of which we con- tegration work program. separation more autonomous and go to tinue to fail to harmonize, long before Some of the EPATS concepts have the next ASAS mode: ASAS-spacing. we needed to build more roads. We have already been analyzed by the Eurocon- ATC is still responsible, but aircraft can the chance here to put in place practical trol experimental center in Bretigny. Eu- do separation tasks. When ASAS has solutions to address the regulatory issues rocontrol’s work to analyze the potential proven itself, higher levels of autonomy alongside the technical issues—but the impact of VLJ operations on European can be allowed so that eventually VFR project needs to address these concerns ATM was an important factor in paving flights can be combined with ASAS-Sep- fully,” says Charlton. the way for VLJ start-up in operations in aration or ASAS-Self-separation,” ac- the continent—it concluded that even if cording to consortium findings. vvv VLJs accounted for 10% of air transport The major hurdles will involve air- A few days before the commission an- movements within Europe they could still craft certification and regulation. Auto- nounced its PPlane research program be accommodated safely. mating the aircraft cockpit will imply the NASA Puffin (http://www.nasa. that, under the present rules, the EVTS gov/topics/technology/features/puf- Institutional hurdles will be considered an IFR (instrument fin.html) concept of a personal air trans- But the industrial, commercial, and tech- flight rules) operation and therefore must port vehicle reached the virtual world. nological trends are not favorable to the be controlled by ATC. In reality, EVTS This is an electric powered, 3.7-m-long, concept in Europe. “Flying car” notions sits somewhere between IFR and VFR: 4.4-m-wingspan personal air vehicle that have been around for many years, but to The pilot is flying on instruments under will take to the air—in a one-third-scale produce these aircraft on an industrial VFR. This will require a rule change. So form—later this year. It has been devel- scale a number of breakthrough tech- will pilot licensing rules; current Euro- oped by a team from the Massachusetts nologies and procedures will need to be pean private pilots licensing procedures Institute of Technology, the Georgia In- matured. do not require an instrument rating ca- stitute of Technology, the National Insti- According to a recent study by the pability, which would be needed for a tute of Aerospace, and M-DOT Aero- Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory, highly automated ETV cockpit. And ac- space in the U.S. TNO Defence, Security and Safety, and cess to airfields without an ATC pres- The timing was significant. Although Aerospace Software and Technologies ence would also need a rule change. entirely unrelated to PPlane, it was fur- Institute (http://evts.nlr.nl/index.html) But it is a good time to consider ther evidence that there is growing inter- into introducing an enhanced VFR (vi- changing the rules. As part of the Single est in a new type of personal aviation sual flight rules) transport system (EVTS), European Sky initiative, Eurocontrol is technology on both sides of the Atlantic. based on slightly larger aircraft than the considering moving toward redefining Perhaps this is not just a new market op- PPlane, the challenges will be more insti- the airspace usage above Europe from portunity for legacy technology suppliers tutional than technical. seven to three levels, including an air- but a new type of aviation concept to Researchers from the three organiza- space level where aircraft unknown to rekindle the interest of a next generation tions concluded that noise generation ATC authorities would be allowed to op- of engineers in the aerospace industry of and emissions of the aircraft suitable for erate on self-separation principles, per- the future. the EVTS concept are acceptable and haps using data-link for 4D navigation Philip Butterworth-Hayes will be improving in the future. With the and more automated sense-and-avoid Brighton,U.K. onboard technology of EVTS it will be procedures being developed for UAS [email protected]

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Working toward compromise (April, engine as the Constellation program. which would make each shuttle flight page 3) suggests using the Atlas V and The RS-68 is a very inefficient rocket. It cost in excess of $20 million more. Inef- the Delta IV EELVs as what? Manned ve- has a specific impulse of 415 sec com- ficiency is the reason the Constellation hicles to carry crew to the space station, pared with the space shuttle main en- program was cancelled and it is a reason or to replace the Constellation heavy lift gines, which operate at an Isp of 454 not to use the Delta vehicle as a com- capability? I'm not sure about the Atlas, sec. As an example, the shuttle using the promise space vehicle. The proper way but Delta uses the same RS-68 rocket RS-68 engine would use 17% more fuel to have efficient space transportation is to develop advanced performance rocket engines having an Isp of 470 sec. All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless Dale Lawrence Jensen it is expressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject to editing for length and to author response. JENTEC Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by e-mail to: [email protected]. vvv This is in response to Wind Tunnels: Don’t count them out (April, page 38). Events Calendar In the discussion of prospects for the fu- JULY 10-15 ture, here is part of the quote by Ed Twenty-seventh International Symposium on Rarefied Gas Dynamics, Mickle, manager of aerodynamics test Pacific Grove, Calif. facility planning at AEDC, Arnold AFB: Contact: Deborah Levin, 814/865-6435, [email protected] “I think this is where you will see more JULY 11-15 merging of large-scale computations Fortieth International Conference on Environmental Systems, with testing. Not in spite of, or in re- Barcelona, Spain. placement of, but the two will meld more Contact: 703/264-7500 to each other.” This reminded me of the Minta Mar- JULY 18-25 tin Lecture at MIT in 1975 or 1976 by Twenty-eighth Scientific Assembly of the Committee on Space Research, Dr. Hans Mark, then director of NASA Bremen, Germany. Ames. The title of his presentation was Contact: www.cospar2010.org “The Future of Computational Aerody- JULY 25-28 namics,” and was based on the AIAA Forty-sixth AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and 1975 paper “Computers vs. Wind Tun- Exhibit, Nashville, Tenn. nels for Aerodynamic Flow Simulations.” Contact: 703/264-7500 Dr. Mark made the point that wind tunnel usage was increasing exponen- JULY 25-28 tially in new programs and, with consid- Eighth International Energy Conversion Engineering Conference and erable prescience, he made the same Exhibit, Nashville, Tenn. point as in the quote above that compu- Contact: 703/264-7500 tational methods would be used, in con- JULY 27-28 junction with testing, for future develop- 2010 RAeS Aerodynamics Conference, Bristol, U.K. ments. His paper went into detail on the Contact: Emma Brown, [email protected] further improvements that were necessary for computational methods to be AUG. 2-5 able to give useful results. AIAA Conferences on Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Atmospheric In the 35 years since that lecture, Flight Mechanics; Modeling and Simulation Technologies; and computational aerodynamics, now called Atmospheric and Space Environments; AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics CFD, has been validated for many appli- Specialist Conference. Toronto, Ontario, Canada. cations and can be used to reveal funda- Contact: 703/264-7500 mental flow behavior. An engineer of today having the remarkable insight of AUG. 7-13 Richard Whitcomb may well recognize 2010 International Heat Transfer Conference, Washington, D.C. some new phenomenon from the results Contact: Avram Bar-Cohen, 301/405-3173; [email protected] of CFD studies, as Whitcomb did from AUG. 30-SEPT. 2 wind tunnel tests. There will always be AIAA SPACE 2010 Conference and Exhibition; 28th AIAA International the need to validate CFD results from Communications Satellite Systems Conference. Anaheim, Calif. tests, but inspiration will come from both. Contact: 703/264-7500 Hubert I.Flomenhoft Palm Beach Gardens,Fla.

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Gearingupforbudgetarybattles

WHETHER, ANDHOW,U.S. ASTRONAUTS sortie, which would be the 135th for the will venture into space in the postshuttle shuttle fleet since 1981. Nelson told the era is rapidly evolving into a head-on dis- Associated Press that he is encouraging pute between the Obama administration one more flight for Atlantis and noted, and members of Congress—in both par- “There’s a good chance the president ties—who want NASA to field the na- will approve it.” Astronaut Thomas D. tion’s next generation of space vehicles. Jones predicted on these pages (“Space shuttle: An astronaut looks at its legacy,” Fighting over Constellation May, page 16) that we may very well see The administration wants to cancel the “several ‘final’ shuttle launches” before Constellation program for postshuttle the program wraps up months later than spacecraft. Lawmakers who want Con- planned. Sen. Bill Nelson stellation to proceed—including repre- But even if no more flights are added sentatives from Florida and Alabama, to the existing schedule, the once-firm states containing key NASA sites—are cutoff date for shuttle operations, Octo- expected to oppose the White House putting astronauts into orbit may be a ber 1, is now being moved to the right: policy vigorously during debate and leg- task that’s beyond private industry.” The last flight by Discovery is slipping to islative markup sessions this fall. Be- Those with an opposing view note at least November and possibly later. tween now and October 1, as the differ- that in 2005 the private sector launched ences between the two sides fester, 18 unmanned spacecraft, and several Defense authorization debate NASA employees and field centers are companies are close to developing vehi- It will be a long, hot summer—perhaps caught up in a time-warp paradox: Leg- cles to carry astronauts. even a “nasty” one, suggested one ob- islation for the current fiscal year author- The looming debate is creating rifts, server—as Congress debates the FY11 izes them to work on Constellation’s even between close allies. NASA Admin- defense authorization bill. Defense Sec- Ares I rocket booster, the Orion crew ex- istrator Charles Bolden was not Presi- retary Robert Gates is a deficit hawk ploration vehicle, and other hardware. dent Barack Obama’s first choice to who says he will trim $10 billion from The administration’s plan for the new fis- head the agency, but he got the job be- planned defense spending. Just where cal year calls for them to halt work on cause of close ties to Sen. Bill Nelson (D- the cut will occur is unclear, and it is a to- nearly all components of the Constella- Fla.). Bolden and Nelson once flew in ken figure in the view of critics who seek tion program. space together—Nelson is the only serv- a more significant decrease in Pentagon “It’s a strength of government to de- ing lawmaker to have been in orbit—and expenditures. velop and field the hardware for manned they are friends. But now Bolden is The secretary faces opposition on spaceflight,” says author and analyst Ed- charged with implementing the Obama the Hill over such issues as an alternate ward Martin. “Everybody likes the all- plan, while Nelson wants to continue de- engine for the F-35 Lightning II Joint American idea of entrepreneurship, but veloping Constellation. Strike Fighter and continued production The shuttle Atlantis, commanded by of the C-17 Globemaster III airlifter. He Navy Capt. Kenneth Ham with six astro- says he will “strongly recommend” that nauts aboard, landed on May 26 after a the president veto the DOD budget if it 12-day mission (STS-132) that installed includes the extra engine or more C-17s. a Russian module on the international Gates also faces legislative opposition to space station. That left only two more his plan for retiring aging ships and air- shuttle flights on NASA’s official sched- craft, a process that would reduce the ule, one each by Endeavour and Discov- size of the armed forces but leave some ery. However, NASA plans to keep At- communities without hometown bases. lantis in operating condition in case a Altogether, the House of Represen- rescue mission is needed during the two tatives version of the defense authoriza- remaining flights. tion bill would spend $760 billion, in- Even without an emergency, ob- cluding $567 billion in the DOD budget servers believe Atlantis may be used for and the nuclear weapons programs of another ISS supply flight, if the White the Dept. of Energy, $159 billion for NASA Administrator Charles Bolden House approves the add-on of one last “overseas contingency operations” (Iraq

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largest chunk of the military spending. But Gates is not budging on the extra JSF engine or on additional C-17s. “I believe the defense budget process should no longer be characterized by business as usual, within this building or outside of it,” Gates said at a press conference. He added, “We will strongly re- sist efforts to impose programs and changes on the department that the military does not want and cannot afford, and that take dollars from programs and Rep. Adam Smith endeavors the military services do need.” Defense Secretary Robert Gates The JSF is under close scrutiny from Congress because of scheduling delays and Afghanistan), and $34 billion in and cost overruns. No aspect of the pro- cates “it would cost no more to reduce overseas commitments left over from last gram is more controversial than the operational risk and achieve the benefits year (including relief work in Haiti). At House Armed Services Committee’s de- of a competitive engine program than to this writing, the Senate had not passed cision to include $485 million in contin- fund a sole-source engine program.” an authorization bill but was expected to ued funding for the aircraft’s General Many supporters of the alternate en- join the House in opposing Gates on Electric/Rolls-Royce F136 engine. The gine are Republicans like Rep. Roscoe key issues. administration wants to proceed with just Bartlett (R-Md.), who says a competing Those who worry about the U.S. na- one engine type, the Pratt & Whitney engine is “warranted and critical and tional debt and about deficit spending F135. Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), in costs nothing more, according to the are attacking Gates from the opposite di- whose state Pratt & Whitney is head- Government Accountability Office.” The rection, insisting that the DOD’s civilian quartered, says the House funds should GAO estimates that competition be- chief is not being tight-fisted enough. be shifted to the F135. tween engine makers could lead to long- Gates acknowledges that the U.S. By supporting the F136, which is term savings of up to 21% for ongoing will spend more on defense than the rest more than 70% through development, programs. of the world’s nations combined. When the House committee is demanding an adjusted for inflation, the total is the annual, head-to-head competition for a Getting JSF on track largest defense outlay since the Korean JSF powerplant, avoiding a decades- As for the F-35 itself, all parties agree War. The secretary is “merely seeking to long, $100-billion engine monopoly that that the aircraft has fallen behind sched- slow the growth of defense spending, otherwise would go to the F135. Rep. ule and gone over cost, but supporters not to reduce it in absolute terms,” wrote Adam Smith (D-Wash.) says the DOD’s say they are taking strong measures to William D. Hartung, director of the own study on JSF engine options indi- bring the fighter back on its flight path. Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation. “Everything needs to be on the table, from delay or cancellation of the F-35 to deeper cuts in missile defense spending to elimination of spending for new aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines.” To remove one roadblock to reaching the spending level he seeks, Gates backed away from an issue that Wash- ington observers say is too hot to handle. He initially wanted to cap this year’s pay raise for military members at 0.5%, but quickly saw that it couldn’t be done. “I want change, but I’m not crazy,” he told reporters after a House panel approved a 1.9% pay increase for service men and women. Personnel costs, including “retirement pay,” or pensions, make up the There is strong support on the Hill for purchasing additional Super Hornets while waiting for the F-35.

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“We’re reducing the time it takes to build Corps will continue to have a strike an F-35 by half,” Lockheed Martin’s fighter shortfall.” He describes the short- Steve O’Bryan, vice president of business fall as “closer to five carriers’ worth of development and customer engagement, aircraft,” calling that “a pretty big deal” tells Aerospace America. In addition, says despite Pentagon assurances otherwise. O’Bryan, “We are reducing parts short- One alternative to the JSF would be fur- ages from over 300 to about 10.” ther “new build” production of the F/A- He also notes that, despite setbacks, 18E/F Super Hornet, manufactured in the F-35 delivery schedule “remains un- Akin’s home state. changed.” He says the Air Force, not the Expressing support for continued planemaker, must decide when to seek procurement of the Super Hornets “bar- initial operating capability (IOC) for the ring a complete reversal of the develop- F-35A land-based version. Gen. Norton ment and performance failures in the Schwartz, Air Force chief of staff, has Rep. Todd Akin Joint Strike Fighter program,” the House slipped IOC from 2013 to 2015. committee added eight additional F/A- The House Armed Services Commit- fighter attack aircraft over the course of 18E/Fs to the administration’s FY11 re- tee wants to limit current JSF production the next five to 20 years. We have to quest for 22 aircraft. Moreover, the Navy to just 30 airframes until the Pentagon make sure that it works and functions.” now says that over a period of years it completes a study certifying progress in In addition, sea power panel ranking will order 124 additional Super Hornets the restructured procurement program. member Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) points beyond the 493 that constituted the pro- Smith told reporters, “It’s a critical pro- out that “even if JSF suddenly meets gram of record for many years. It must gram. It’s replacing almost all of our schedule and cost, the Navy and Marine fill in a projected “fighter gap” on aircraft carrier decks, says the Navy, which also says it is not bucking Obama and his administration or their unwavering commit- its Your Life ment to JSF. Rear Adm. Mike Manazir, Learning That F head of naval aviation programs, says the Navy needs almost 700 F-35s to up- gineering grade aircraft carrier power projection Online Master of Engineering or En capabilities starting in April 2016. Certificate of Completion in Systems From its inception, the JSF program was intended as a giant multinational effort to provide more than 5,000-6,000 fighters over 30 years, in three versions, to a dozen countries. A similar program, the F-16 Fighting Falcon, was under- taken in the 1970s, with the Nether- lands taking the lead in the plane’s overseas development and with all customers offered two engine choices. U.S. forces, among other users, operate F-16s with two different sets of engines. r Busy Career Now, the Dutch parliament has voted on that Fits i nto You to end participation in the operational Educati ation. Col orado line and Distance of systems in tegr test phase of JSF and cancel an earlier Convenient On neering. a comprehensive understanding n Syste ms Engi dership requires riven c urriculum i order for one aircraft. The Netherlands Aerospace lea ith a n industr y-d eads t he w ay w ls. contributed $800 million to JSF devel- State U niversity l e your s kil eering tha t gram today to enhanc ems Engi n n our onlin e p ro ine education in Syst opment and had planned to purchase up Joi d convenient onl for flexible an areer g oals. to 85 fighters, but political opposition on Apply or e nroll today ve y our c e nee ds and helps you achie {ÎÎÈ the home front has always been strong. meets wo rkforc U nÇÇ® {£ V>Ì°V While observers in Amsterdam were say- }iiÀ} `Õ -1 ing that some of the anti-JSF rhetoric is merely election-eve posturing, at press time it appeared that JSF critics would gain strength in June 9 Dutch elections. Robert F.Dorr [email protected]

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Tminus15years...andholding

IN 2001, ASMYCREWAND I WEREABOUT Despite President Barack Obama’s test of the Orion launch abort system, or to set off for the ISS on my last shuttle April speech at Kennedy Space Center, LAS, at White Sands, N.M. The 90-sec mission, we had a brief conversation the nation’s future in space remains flight showed the LAS could blast an with the executive in charge of NASA’s mired in political debate. To address crit- Orion capsule clear of a launch pad space operations. Fidgeting in crew ics of his FY11 budget proposal (re- emergency, hurling the spacecraft “a quarters, we shot the breeze about our leased in February), the president di- mile high and a mile long,” followed by STS-98 Atlantis mission and the future. rected NASA to resurrect a version of parachute deployment and safe landing. When I asked when he thought astro- the Orion spacecraft for use as an ISS With Orion slated for cancellation, it is nauts would once again move beyond lifeboat, promised to choose a design for unclear whether the sophisticated LAS the station into deep space, his answer a new heavy-lift booster by 2015, and will ever fly again. startled me. pledged to send explorers to a near- On May 14, Atlantis (STS-132) was “Not until 2012 or 2013 at the earli- Earth object (NEO) around 2025. Still launched on its final flight, as NASA est.” He was nonchalant, but the idea of slated for cancellation, however, are the continued winding down the space shut- still being mired in LEO a dozen years Constellation lunar landing program and tle program. Reaching the ISS on May hence bowled me over. Here I was about Ares boosters. Commercial launch serv- 16, Atlantis’ 32nd crew delivered the to strap into a 4.5-million-lb rocket, sur- ices would provide access to the ISS, and Rassvet miniresearch module, or MRM- rounded by about 2,000 tons of chemi- the president made clear his disinterest 1, to a nadir-facing docking port on the cal explosives, all to further the cause of in the Moon as an objective. Russian Zarya module. human exploration. Yet my boss was Congress took up Obama’s propos- With Rassvet’s installation, the ISS is telling me we were going nowhere fast. als with increased skepticism through 93% complete by mass and 98% com- The only thing on his plate was the sta- late spring, against a backdrop of signifi- plete by habitable volume. The orbiting tus quo: shuttle, station, and LEO. cant activities in space. On May 6, complex spans more than a football field What a difference a decade makes. NASA conducted a successful inaugural and currently weighs in at 816,349 lb. The six-person Expedition 23 crew now 3 STS-132 mission specialist Garrett Reisman is surrounded by windows and computers in the ISS Cupola inhabits more than 29,500 ft of pres- during his mission’s flight day five activities. Credit: NASA. surized volume, about the size of a five- bedroom house. Following Atlantis’ final landing roll- out, two shuttle missions remain. After the orbiters Discovery and Endeavour head into the barn this fall, the U.S. will see its human spaceflight capabilities un- dergo the deepest reduction since the end of Apollo in 1975. Gone will be the heavy upmass and downmass capacity of the orbiter fleet, along with the flexible robotics and EVA capabilities that serviced Hubble, retrieved satellites, and enabled an array of scientific expeditions to LEO. Renting seats on Russian Soyuz transports will allow NASA to send only four Americans and two partner astronauts annually to the ISS. But the retiring orbiters will also take with them the high costs of shuttle operations. By contracting out astronaut transport to the Russians and then commercial companies like SpaceX, Orbital Sciences, and others, the Obama admin-

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limbo will certainly extend both the policy turmoil surrounding NASA and the length of time the agency will be unable to put its own astronauts in orbit. After Apollo-Soyuz ﬂew in 1975, even with shuttle development in full swing, it took NASA six years to launch Columbia. To- day, NASA does not even know which LEO-access system—if any—it might be authorized to build, let alone when a new system might ﬂy.

Unavoidable impacts Even as this White House and Congress spar over policy, the standoff’s impacts are already being felt. The shuttle program will likely end this year, with all the attendant workforce layoffs at Kennedy, Johnson, and Marshall. Employees— SpaceX’s Falcon 9 booster stands on launch complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. from Mission Control personnel to Falcon 9’s first stage generates more than a booster, main engine, and external tank million pounds of thrust. engineers, to orbiter maintainers and technicians—will be shown the door, with few transition opportunities available in The Pad Abort 1 flight test on May 6 was the istration hopes to cut LEO transporta- the industry. first integrated flight of the Orion launch abort tion costs further. Elon Musk, the Given the space sector’s uncertainty, system meant to whisk the crew away from a SpaceX founder whose Falcon 9 rocket they are very likely to leave the industry failing booster during launch. Credit: NASA. made a successful test flight on June 4, altogether. The $40 million the adminis- has vowed to have a human-rated space- tration has promised for Florida space craft bound for the ISS three years after coast workers is rightly perceived as a by the Falcon 9 launch pad at Complex inking a NASA contract. political band-aid. As Cernan told Con- 40. He spoke to a hand-picked VIP gress, “…these technicians, engineers, crowd at the operations and checkout Impasse scientists, a generation removed from building, once home to Apollo space- That plan was on hold in May, along Apollo, yet reinspired by the prospect of craft and recently refurbished for Orion with other major elements of the presi- going back to the Moon and on to Mars, assembly. There he announced Orion’s dent’s FY11 NASA budget, as Congress will be gone—where I don’t know—but new role as ISS lifeboat. Launched un- enacted legislative language directing full gone.” manned, it would serve successive six- 2010 funding of Constellation. On May The nascent commercial launch ser- month tours berthed at the station to 12, a Senate committee heard from for- vices firms, even given a congressional provide emergency escape capability. mer astronauts Neil Armstrong and “Go,” are unlikely to take on shuttle and The rationale for an Orion lifeboat Gene Cernan, who with other Apollo Constellation workers in anything like crumbles under programmatic, fiscal, and shuttle veterans were clearly skepti- the necessary numbers. To ease home- and engineering scrutiny. ISS partner cal about both the vetting of the Obama state impact, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) Russia already maintains two Soyuz plan and its impact on the nation’s future has proposed a continuing series of Ares transports at the ISS for emergency es- in space. In calm but direct phrasing, I test flights at Cape Canaveral, perhaps cape. Orion would merely duplicate this Apollo 11 commander Armstrong ob- one per year, with the results feeding the capability at the considerable cost of de- served, “As I examine the plan as stated evolving design of the president’s prom- velopment and two launches annually. …I find a number of assertions which, at ised heavy-lift booster. The administra- Unless it is intended to serve as NASA’s best, demand careful analysis, and at tion, however, is unlikely to keep Ares I hedge against commercial failure, some- worst, do not deserve any analysis.” lurking in the wings to undercut its fa- thing the White House will not discuss, With November’s elections looming, vored commercial launch partners. Orion’s reprieve seems intended more to the Congress may avoid deciding on preserve jobs than to meet any ISS de- NASA’s future this year altogether, by “Orion Lite” mand. Armstrong assessed the proposal funding the agency at last year’s levels in During his Kennedy Space Center visit as “a very expensive project with limited a continuing resolution. The resulting on April 15, President Obama dropped usefulness.”

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Serious about deep space? The president emphasized in April his commitment to sending astronauts beyond the ISS: “The bottom line is, nobody is more committed to manned spaceflight, to human exploration of space, than I am.…Early in the next decade, a set of crewed flights will test and prove the systems required for exploration beyond low Earth orbit. And by 2025, we expect new spacecraft designed for long journeys to allow us to begin the first-ever crewed missions beyond the Moon into deep space….We’ll start by sending astronauts to an asteroid for the first time in history.” On May 14, Atlantis lifted off from KSC pad 39A for its final mission. Astronauts Ken Ham, commander; Tony Antonelli, pi- NEOs are worthy explo- lot; Garrett Reisman, Michael Good, Steve Bowen, and Piers Sellers, all mission specialists, delivered the MRM-1 research module and a fresh set of solar array batteries to the ISS. Credit: NASA. ration goals for our nation’s continued progress into space (see “Why asteroids beckon: human missions to NEOs would be an yond this administration’s political hori- NASA and near-Earth objects, March, affordable and rewarding first move into zon, at most six years away. The presi- page 12). NEOs are accessible, rich in deep space, before moving on quickly to dent thus escapes any serious budget scientific interest, and chock full of water lunar or Mars exploration. commitment to meeting the deep space and other resources for human explo- The Moon still warrants our atten- goal. Politically speaking, America’s jour- ration. They offer an excellent (and “flex- tion, and the president too quickly dis- ney to deep space is infinitely flexible— ible”) path to increase our deep space missed its value. His statement, “We’ve and endlessly deferrable. experience toward Mars, and studying been there before; Buzz [Aldrin] has been them in detail will help us head off a fu- there,” while correct, is hardly an argu- A path forward ture destructive impact with Earth. Such ment for overlooking a nearby world with Critics of Obama’s 2010 plan have had a disaster is a certainty, unless we learn a surface area the size of the Americas. a thorough hearing in Congress, and the how to deflect a NEO. A series of piloted Buzz, after all, explored only a patch the debate continues today. Instead of an- size of a baseball dia- other year of uncertainty in space, the After 32 missions and a cumulative 120 million miles in orbit, Atlantis mond. We should rec- White House, legislators, NASA, and the flared over Runway 33 at KSC to bring STS-132 to a close on the morning of May 26. This was the final scheduled mission for Atlantis. Credit: NASA. onnoiter it first with aerospace community should seek a robots, then send hu- path forward that recognizes the ur- mans when the re- gency of restoring our waning capabili- source and scientific ties and the past failure to fund the na- attractions are worth tion’s space goals. The solution should the cost. leverage near-term commercial innova- But the NEO an- tions and longer term R&D programs, nouncement was wel- and should provide a budget sized to de- come, Obama reiter- liver real achievement. ating President Bush’s First, NASA’s sponsorship of com- commitment to send mercial launch services should go for- American explorers ward, first with cargo, then with astro- into deep space. nauts, when performance, cost, and NASA has a long- safety goals are met. Because the com- term goal worthy of mercial cargo effort is already two years the risks of space- behind schedule, establishing that record flight. But the 2025 might take as long as five years. We thus target date is far be- face an unacceptably high risk of having

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no LEO access well beyond 2015. commitment to space exploration and Last April, the president declared To address this risk, then, NASA an expanding space economy. that, “Fifty years after the creation of must field, test, and fly its own near-term NASA, our goal is no longer just a desti- crewed spacecraft, perhaps a stripped- Budget realities nation to reach. Our goal is the capacity down, fast-tracked Orion, providing as- The White House has based much of its for people to work and learn and oper- sured LEO access until the commercial public rationale for cancelling Constella- ate and live safely beyond the Earth for industry matures. The chosen booster tion on its “unsustainable” costs. Yet had extended periods of time, ultimately in should be one that most quickly achieves NASA been funded as planned between ways that are more sustainable and even this interim capability. This is bound to 2005 and today, the agency would be indefinite. And in fulfilling this task, we be costly, but long-term disruption of well on its way to flying Ares I, and Ares will not only extend humanity’s reach in LEO access, and the possible loss of ISS, V would be ready before 2020. Past space—we will strengthen America’s would be even more so. budgetary neglect, however, is no reason leadership here on Earth.” NASA’s retention of LEO-launch ca- to shortchange the future. The declaration was welcome, set- pability will also ease workforce transi- The president’s FY11 budget in- ting forth a commitment worth pursuing tions over the next few years. To free crease for NASA is welcome but by no with ingenuity and passion. As the last funds for deep space exploration, the means extravagant. If the administration shuttle astronauts suit up, we will be agency must commit to phasing out its allotted one $3-billion “cash for clunk- looking to the future, hoping that the na- LEO operations as soon as commercial ers” windfall to NASA annually, by 2015 tion’s space policy makers match their suppliers are ready. we not only would achieve robust access words with sustained action. to LEO, but would also be within tangi- Thomas D.Jones Accelerate deep space ble reach of mounting our first human [email protected] Other nations are aggressively pursuing deep space expeditions since 1972. www.AstronautTomJones.com human spaceflight, and they will not stand still until 2025. To ensure U.S. leadership, the White House should move up the goal of sending astronauts to deep space by at least five years, to 2020. Work on the heavy-lift launcher should begin now. There is nothing sa- cred about Ares V. NASA should pursue a design course aimed at low life-cycle costs and a true heavy-lift capability. That probably means a move away from shuttle technology, away from solid rocket boosters and toward a new, kerosene-fueled first stage, as discussed by the Augustine committee. Clearly focused, vigorous R&D on the new booster should aim at providing a vehicle ready to fly well before 2020. Open- ended “breakthrough” R&D is illusory: History shows that unfocused R&D programs are all too easily pirated away by the OMB and congressional earmarks. NASA needs a specific exploration objective, schedule, and budget to match. Man- agers need all three to assess performance and stay accountable to taxpayers. Without acceleration of the U.S. deep space goal, there is a real danger that the nation’s human spaceflight effort will end when the ISS reaches the end of its useful life circa 2020. (Some see this second “gap” as an opportunity.) Only a vigorous budget commitment to moving beyond ISS, with one program phasing smoothly into another, will demonstrate the nation’s long-term

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Emergingregionalscrowd aflatmarket

A NEWCROPOFREGIONALAIRCRAFTHAS millions of dollars. This resulted in bank- ment interference. This means emerging appeared on the horizon. Most of them ruptcy in 2007, after the political will to aircraft producers cannot rely on the reflect the aspirations of government-di- keep funding a money-losing enterprise protection of a guaranteed home market rected national industrial policies rather gave out. (China is not a signatory, but it does re- than new business ventures created by A big problem affecting the viability tain observer status; more important, it private-sector companies. The history of of all these programs concerns aircraft has lived up to the agreement). Industry national aircraft, along with the flat re- manufacturing costs and pricing. New trends have been heading in this direc- gional market, suggests industrial car- market entrants typically tout low labor tion for some time, even without the nage ahead. costs as a way of creating lower cost air- WTO. In the 1980s and 1990s, for ex- craft. But since most of an aircraft’s sys- ample, McDonnell Douglas established a A legacy of disaster tems and components come from estab- production line for the MD-80 narrow- In the 1980s and early 1990s, no fewer lished providers, the majority of any body jetliner. Yet without active govern- than 10 countries harbored ambitions to aircraft’s costs are at established pro- ment promotion, this airplane enjoyed a enter the regional aircraft business. Na- ducer prices. As for the airframe itself, notably low market share in China, with tions such as Argentina, Taiwan, and aviation workers in countries entering production totaling a mere 35 planes, in- Malaysia had plans for regional turbo- the market are likely to be considerably cluding five exported back to the U.S. props or jets. All planned to use state- less productive than those at established Even if ATCA did not play a role in owned and funded industries to meet companies with decades of experience, limiting mandated sales to national carri- perceived local needs and perhaps tap obviating much of that cost advantage. ers, simple airline economics might do into a broader export market. Yet all of Meanwhile, the new entrants do not the same job. Russia has had to relent on them failed. In fact, since 1960, only have the established mechanisms in its efforts to mandate sales of local air- one new country and company—Brazil place to finance aircraft sales, a key part craft to national carriers for the simple and its Embraer—successfully entered the of market development. This is a partic- reason that they would have been at a aircraft business. ularly big problem, because their prod- tremendous competitive disadvantage if Indonesia’s IPTN provides the best il- ucts have no residual value track records, they could not purchase the right planes lustration of the pitfalls of such an under- complicating efforts to arrange third- for their needs. taking. Technically, the company suc- party financing. Also, establishing cus- Meanwhile, as new players failed, ceeded. Along with Spain’s CASA, it tomer sales and support networks is as numerous legacy players that had been codeveloped the CN-235 and built big a barrier to market entry as aircraft around for many decades also were dozens for Indonesia’s military, several design and integration. forced to exit the market. The Nether- local airlines, and a few export cus- Another problem faced by new mar- lands’ Fokker, Spain’s CASA, Sweden’s tomers. It designed and built a prototype ket entrants concerns the World Trade Saab, the U.K.’s British Aerospace, of its N-250/270 50/70-seat turbo- Organization. WTO’s Agreement on among others, all left the regional air- prop, and had plans to move on to the Trade in Civil Aircraft (ATCA) signatories craft market behind, concentrating in- N-2130, a 130-seat jetliner. All the are required by the treaty to let their air- stead on military or jetliner work, or on while, however, it was losing hundreds of lines choose jetliners without govern- component production.

CN-235

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A flat market REGIONAL AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS MARKET SHARE All of these new entrants attempted and failed to break into the regional market Value of deliveries in 2010 $billions when it was actually growing. Yet for the past decade, the market has actually been flat, or declining. $8 In 1989, regional aircraft deliveries were 15% of the total world transport 6 market. In 2009, they were under 11%. High aircraft seat mile costs, persistent scope clauses, and problematic relations 4 between major and regional carriers all portend continued market flatness. Regional aircraft were the one seg- 2 ment of the aviation business that did not grow during the great 2003-2008 boom 0 market. Large jetliner deliveries grew at 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 a 7% annual rate during that period, and continued at a 13.5% rate in 2009. Yet Bombardier Fairchild Domier Saab Fokker SuperJet MRJ regional aircraft grew at a mere 1.4% Embraer ATR BAE Beech ARJ21 rate in 2003-2008, and even this was completely due to turboprop deliveries growth (in point of fact, regional jets ac- China leads…kind of cause of weak intellectual property laws, tually shrank). Worse, in 2009 the re- In 2002 China announced that it would Western suppliers needed to make this gional sector declined by 5.7%. Between develop its 90-seat ARJ21. This project, project work are using last-generation 2009 and 2010 Embraer, the biggest re- fronted by AVIC (Aviation Industries of equipment. Nobody wants to give Chi- gional player, saw its backlog drop from China) and Comac (Commercial Aircraft nese industry access to their very latest 375 jets to 229. Corporation of China), is the latest in a technology. Though the market may stop shrink- long line of China RJ proposals. No- In short, the ARJ21 now looks as ing this year as traffic returns, the most tably, 2002 also saw an agreement be- though it will be used as a learning expe- likely forecast scenario offers a flat mar- tween AVIC-II’s Harbin unit and Em- rience for Chinese industry, with very ket, a far cry from the great days of braer to coproduce ERJs. In terms of limited commercial appeal. Priority is 1997-2001, when the industry went orders, this agreement has produced a now being given to designing the C919, from $4.5 billion in deliveries to $7.7 mere handful of planes, and the line a 150-seat mainline jet. billion in deliveries. looks set to close in 2011. While the ARJ21 struggles, China Not only is this market flat, it is also Originally scheduled to enter service continues to produce several turboprop stunningly concentrated. The 2,000 jets in 2007, the ARJ21 is now still slowly regional aircraft. Since 2000, Xian has based in North America represent about going through flight testing. The fourth built about 40 of its 60-seat MA60s, but 60% of the world’s fleet. Asia, which has aircraft flew in April, but the earliest pos- most have gone to marginal markets. In become the biggest single market for sible delivery date is now late this year. March, China’s government announced large jetliners, has a mere 230 regional Unfortunately, the ARJ21 does not that it had sold four MA60s to the Sri jets, or 7% of the fleet. In short, there is look at all like a promising product. It Lankan air force and three to the Myan- no sign at all that these new aircraft pro- is 15% heavier on a per-seat basis than mar air force. Both of these deals will be ducers were or are being established to any of its competitors. That assumes the financed, predictably enough, from China meet local market needs. IPTN’s efforts manufacturer’s specifica- to sell CN-235s to its local carriers al- tions stay as-is, an opti- most collapsed, with threats of prison mistic assumption. In over- sentences needed to coerce airline man- all dimensions, it looks very agers to accept the planes. much like the DC-9—a clas- Despite this cash-destroying legacy sic example of reinventing of failure, and despite a very challenging the wheel. The engines and market, there is a new and large crop of avionics are pretty much government-funded players seeking to identical to any other RJ de- enter the regional aircraft business. The signed 10 years ago. The first, unsurprisingly, is China. basic problem is that be- MA60

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government loans. China is also intro- NAL has also worked on its Saras 19- ducing a new, larger, improved turbo- seat turboprop program. It first flew in prop, the MA700. It might arrive in 2004 and may enter service in the next 2014. few years. In March 2009 the second Saras prototype crashed, killing two pi- From military to civil…maybe lots and an engineer. The other countries attempting to break Meanwhile, military work has sus- into the regional aircraft game all share tained IAe, as Indonesia’s IPTN is now one thing in common: They represent Saras known, at least in a much smaller post- an effort to leverage military aerospace bankruptcy position. In May the com- knowledge, assets, and experience into a pany launched a three-year program to commercial program. Russia, Japan, In- 1990s Japan’s Ministry of Economy, create a new 19-seat turboprop trans- dia, Turkey, and South Korea are all at- Trade, and Industry announced plans to port. The market for planes in this class tempting the big jump to the civil world, develop an indigenous 30-seat regional basically collapsed in the 1990s, and at and all are looking at the flat regional jet. The Japan Aircraft Development least six production programs died as a sector as their target market. Corporation (JADC) also proposed an result. IAe has not indicated any techno- While Russia has a technically re- 80/110-seat regional jet family. Known logical enablers or market changes that spectable legacy of building jetliners, all as YS-X, this effort was effectively a rein- will allow its new project to avoid the of the country’s civil aerospace work has carnation of the YS-X proposal that was same fate. faded into a mere shadow of its former active in the mid-1990s and was can- The most unexpected potential new self. There are numerous mainline and celed in Japan’s FY97. This YS-X, in market hopeful is Turkey. After decades regional models either in production or turn, was distantly related to the joint of building aircraft components and li- ready for production, but only a handful Boeing/JADC 7J7 proposal of the cense-built versions of foreign military are built each year, and most feature ag- 1980s. aircraft such as the F-16, the country’s ing technology. But the latest Japanese regional air- transport ministry has announced plans Notably, Russia’s one hope for pre- craft development is actually from the for a 50/70-seat regional jet. The no- serving this legacy comes from a com- private sector, albeit with government tional budget is $1 billion, with an pany that has so far worked exclusively support. At the 2007 Paris Air Show, equally notional in-service date of 2023. in military markets. Sukhoi’s Superjet, to Mitsubishi began promoting its own RJ Given the tiny size of the country’s be built in cooperation with Italy’s Fin- in the YS-X class. Since its F-2 fighter jet regional airline sector, and the relatively meccanica (as Superjet International), is is about to end production, the company free market economic system to which scheduled to enter service later this year, perceived the need for continued diversi- Turkey normally adheres, this proposal about two years after the original plan. fication into civil markets to keep its is the most highly improbable new re- As of May, there were five Superjet prime contractor skills intact. ANA has gional aircraft so far proposed. 100s in final assembly. provided a launch order. In October Transitioning from military to civil Superjet actually has one key attrib- 2009, the MRJ scored a notable break- work is a difficult process owing to the ute the other regional players do not en- through with a tentative order for 50 wildly differing market dynamics, aircraft joy: A potentially strong home market. firm and 50 option planes from Trans design parameters, and customer needs. There are hundreds of aging regional air- States Holdings, the parent company of Yet no matter how difficult it is to enter craft in Russian airline service, and if the Trans States Airlines and GoJet Airlines. the civil aircraft arena by leveraging mili- Russian government can help finance re- As for South Korea, it has copro- tary work, the world will continue to see placement aircraft for just a third of the duced jet fighters and helicopters, and a steady stream of countries moving on fleet, that is a respectable home market. created its own jet and prop trainers and that path. Although this would violate ATCA, Rus- transport helicopters (with Western as- In fact, if evidence is needed that sia’s resource extraction economy is far sistance). However, it has also revived its emerging regional producers represent less dependent on world trade agree- long-dormant plans to get into the civil state-directed cluelessness about market ments than are the export-driven econ- sector. Predictably, the government is needs, there is one looming worst exam- omies of China and India. now considering a proposal to fund a ple yet: Iran. The country is already build- As Sukhoi moves forward with Su- 90-seat turboprop airliner. No firm going Antonov’s 52-seat An-140 turboprop perjet, its Ukrainian rival, Antonov, is ahead has been provided. under license, and in May Defense Minis- also proceeding with its An-148, a 68/ India wants to travel the same path. ter Ahmed Vahidi said the country had 85-seat design. While only about five of While the country has yet to succeed designed a 100-150-seat jet. these have been built, in May the com- with its multidecade Light Combat Air- In short, there may be a new emerg- pany flew a 99-seat stretch, the An-158. craft, the government’s National Aero- ing producer that somehow manages to In Japan, a very serious collapse of space Laboratories (NAL) want to move make the others look good. military aircraft production has led the on to design and develop 70/100-seat Richard Aboulafia country’s government to help fund a commercial aircraft. The latest proposal Teal Group long-awaited national regional jet. In the is the 70-seat RTA-70. Since 1991, raboulafia.com

18 AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2010 REGISTER www.aiaa.org/events/atio TODAY!

Early Registration Deadline: 16 August 2010 Standard Registration Deadline: 7 September 2010

10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference The Future of Global Aviation – Complex Analysis for a Complex System

13–15 September 2010 • Renaissance Worthington Hotel • Fort Worth, Texas

13th AIAA/ISSMO Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization Conference Enabling Complex Design for the 21st Century

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Defenseelectronics: Thespigotisnot closing

A CLOSE LOOK AT TOP-LINE INDICATORS IN the capability to fight two major wars si- tronic warfare), and EO (electrooptics). the defense electronics market over the multaneously and to combat terrorism: The highest growth rates—perhaps sur- next 10 years shows that, contrary to This is not a cost-cutting QDR. Five-year prisingly—will be in electronic warfare. In stories of “the tap closing” or a new- funding plans in the FY11 budget, re- a major turnaround from the past two found spending conservatism, defense leased in February, show continuing in- decades, EW will offer many of the best electronics funding will almost certainly creases: There is no downturn for elec- opportunities for both growth and value, not decrease at all. Our market forecast tronics. Updating legacy platforms has which is perhaps not so strange when shows slow growth every year this dec- taken over from all-new procurements, the U.S. is again faced with real threats ade, for several reasons. so even if overall defense budgets de- and real casualties; as in the Vietnam The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Re- crease, electronics will not. Every can- War, funding has turned toward protec- view (QDR) argues the U.S. still needs celed F-22 may mean radar or electronic tion, which means EW. warfare upgrades for 25 F-15s. And, al- The second fastest growth rates (and though today’s open systems and com- the largest total market value) will be in Equipment was rolled out at the WIN-T Increment mercial architecture programs are adver- C4I. Networked ISR (intelligence, sur- Two Engineering Field Test at Fort Huachuca, Ariz., in December. tised as cheaper to buy and upgrade, in veillance, and reconnaissance) and an practice this has rarely been the case. In- overall growth in the importance of instead, expect continually improving ca- terconnected electronic systems will of- pabilities for similar or greater costs. fer constant new opportunities in C4I, As with all forecasts that have ap- both for established defense primes and peared in this column, funding is built new electronics subcontractors. from the bottom up, from dozens of cu- Although threats have changed since mulative individual program forecasts in the Cold War, intelligence, protection, each market sector (hundreds in the and connectedness will grow faster than overall market), not top down solely from direct shooter electronics over the next Pentagon R-1 (RDT&E) or P-1 (procure- 10 years. Mature markets for radar and ment) lines, which offer little precision or EO will remain large, but with moderate discrimination for electronics programs. CAGRs (compound annual growth rates). All funding is for U.S. and interna- The C4I market will grow steadily tional markets available to U.S. manu- over the next decade, as network-centric facturers. Thus, for example, we have warfare and U.S. doctrine focus increas- not included funding for Russian or Chi- ingly on making sensor and other data nese markets, and very little for French available to all. There are many new busi- markets. Programs included are prima- ness possibilities here, for nearly all major rily U.S. systems. Sales of international sensor programs—and many options. systems (such as the Ericsson fighter The two biggest coherent market radar for Gripen) are not included unless there is a significant U.S. component, which is rare. International systems are MARKET SECTOR FUNDING TOTALS included only when they have made major sales in U.S. markets, such as the Sector Value CAGR CAGR Saab/BAE Systems BOL chaff/flare dis- (FY09-18) (FY09-14) (FY09-18) penser, and the Rafael/Northrop Grum- C4I $117.2B 3.7% 2.6% man Litening targeting pod. Radar $91.6B 1.6% 1.0% EW $84.0B 7.0% 4.3% Market sectors The largest defense electronics market EO $72.1B 1.4% 2.2% sector, overall, will be C4I (command, Other $26.0B 2.8% 2.7% control, communications, computers, and Sonar $15.0B 4.1% 0.6% intelligence), followed by radar, EW (elec-

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T (Warfighter Information Network-Tac- TOTAL DEFENSE ELECTRONICS MARKET FORECAST tical) and JTRS (Joint Tactical Radio RDT&E+procurement System). $Billions EO sensor markets have steadily risen for several years, as a number of $50 major programs entered full-rate produc- 43.3 43.8 41.7 42.8 43.0 tion following years of delays. With sup- 39.5 40.4 40 37.8 38.3 35.3 plemental procurements for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan already well estab- 30 lished, and possibly ending soon, the biggest market surge is over. Teal Group forecasts growth in FY10, primarily be- 20 cause of continuing wartime ground system refits and new UAV production, but 10 then sees a slight decline until the next generation of airborne systems (especially on the Joint Strike Fighter) enters 0 full production. FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 If the new administration makes major budget changes, or JSF funding is cut C4I EO EW Radar Sonar Other back, the uptick after FY12 could be de- layed, resulting in a further decline, especially if EO is increasingly supplanted segments will be data links (primarily air- war on terror, and Cold War systems are by RF (radio frequency) systems. borne) and tactical radios (primarily not adequate (while they remain over- EO is a mature market, but new ar- ground). One area that requires all-new qualified at sea and in the air). Examples eas are developing, especially for the glo- equipment and capabilities is C4I for of programs that will earn massive fund- bal war on terror, to detect and counter ground sensors; this is the realm of the ing include the Army’s ground/air WIN- irregular opponents: networked ground sensors, hyperspectral sensors, UAVs, and naval sensors. There will be billions The AN/SPY-1 radar antennas can be seen on the front and starboard side spent for EO sensors, and hundreds of of the superstructure of USS Lake Erie. millions for C4I. Electronic warfare CAGRs of 7.0% and 4.3% from FY09-FY14 and FY09- FY18 will lead all market sectors. Very strong growth in signals intelligence, airborne infrared countermeasures (vs. infrared-guided missiles), and naval ECM (electronic countermeasures)—each area with a 10-year CAGR above 7%—will lead solid growth expected throughout the EW market. The airborne market will dominate, earning 84.2% of prime contract value. The only airborne EW market segment that will decline significantly is chaff/flare dispensers and expendables, largely because we forecast less use if the current shooting wars taper off in a few years. Radar warning receivers, RF decoys, missile warning systems, and RF ECM are all mature market segments, but even these will increase strongly. In some ways similar to the EO market, the even more mature radar market will see declines in many segments, with

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prepare to fight the and JSF, we have sometimes allocated thousands of Soviet percentages to “other” and “available.” fighters that will now Uncontracted programs, as well as spec- never come swarming ulative programs in the out years, we al- across the border. locate as “available.” Out-years of fore- The ground radar casts may be slight underestimations: We market will decline do forecast “undetermined” future pro- somewhat, despite a grams, but try to be conservative. strong ballistic missile Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, defense segment. Lockheed Martin, and to a lesser extent The naval radar BAE Systems, will dominate the defense market will probably electronics market from FY09-FY18, peak in a few years with nearly 50% of prime contracts. and then shrink, as Raytheon will lead by a substantial mar- BMD spending de- gin, with $62.8 billion, leading radar and The AN/AQS-22 Airborne Low-Frequency Sonar will equip the Navy’s MH-60R multimission helicopters. creases; over 70% of EO markets, placing second in C4I and naval radar funding sonars, and third in EW. synthetic aperture radars for ISR the will go to one program—Lockheed Mar- Northrop Grumman will place a rea- strongest growth area. AEW (airborne tin’s AN/SPY-1 Aegis for more than sonably close second, with $52.5 billion early warning)—think the Boeing 707- 100 cruisers and destroyers. in total funding, based on leadership in based AWACS—will increase slightly, be- Often overlooked as an airborne EW, a strong second in radar (half cause of the new E-2D Advanced Hawk- market, helicopter and aircraft-borne Northrop’s total forecast funding), third eye’s AN/APY-9 radar. Other airborne dipping sonars and sonobuoys will retain in EO, and fifth in C4I. In airborne sys- radar segments, including fighters, have their importance as the Navy operates tems, Northrop will be number one, already shrunk, despite the current surge more often in shallow water littoral envi- ahead of Raytheon, with a large lead in of digital upgrades and active electroni- ronments, and helicopters will play an airborne radars and EW. cally scanned array antenna retrofits, al- increasing role as ASW (antisubmarine Lockheed Martin will show a very though the JSF will turn this around warfare) assets. The airborne sonar mar- close third with $51.7 billion, absent once production ramps up. Indeed, as ket segment has grown quickly as AN/ from many market sectors but dominant the importance of ISR of ground-based AQS-22 ALFS production has ramped in others, especially airborne fighter and targets takes over from the Cold War up, but when ALFS tapers off near the attack helicopter EO targeting systems, AEW and fighter fire-control-radar em- end of the decade the overall market will and naval radar. Lockheed will lead in phasis, the amazing thing is how much decline. C4I and sonar (with its dominant A-RCI will still be spent on air-to-air radars, to The ship and submarine sonar mar- program), place second in EO, and third ket will remain more stable, but will now in radar (because of the naval AN/SPY-1 be buoyed by the increasingly strong Aegis system). TOTAL DEFENSE ELECTRONICS growth of Lockheed Martin’s dominant BAE Systems will follow in fourth at MARKET SHARE AN/BQQ-10(V) Acoustic-Rapid COTS $18.1 billion, little more than one-third FY10 $Millions, FY09-FY18 Insertion (A-RCI) program. Lockheed’s value, due primarily to its strength in EW (a fairly close second to Raytheon $62,793 Manufacturer shares Northrop), and a growing fifth in EO. Northrop Grumman $52,522 Our market share prediction for the next Only two other primes will exceed Lockheed Martin $51,701 10 years shows 29.1% of the market will 2% of the total market: General Dynam- BAE Systems $18,114 be available for new primes (a value of ics, with $9.6 billion total (third in C4I), General Dynamics $9,640 $118.2 billion), when considering that and ITT, with $9.0 billion total (fourth in continuing production for most current EW and sixth in EO). Just two more will ITT $9,014 programs is locked up by the incumbent earn more than $5 billion—Boeing ($7.2 Boeing $7,232 (for example, most future JSF radar billion) and L-3 Communications ($6.9 L-3 Communications $6,897 funding will likely go to Northrop Grum- billion). FLIR Systems $4,157 man, despite theoretical recompetes). A Note, however, that many of these Harris $3,487 much higher share than this 29.1% will prime contractors, especially outside the be available for subcontractors. Big Three, will earn considerable addi- Thales $3,329 In making this prediction, for most tional funding as subcontractors. There DRS Technologies $3,066 programs we have allocated manufac- will be many new opportunities in all Other $55,676 turer share funding in full to the prime fields of defense electronics. Available $118,240 contractor, not split between subcontrac- David L.Rockwell Total $405,868 tors, as this is often difficult to break out. Teal Group For really big programs, such as AWACS [email protected]

22 AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2010 30 August– 2 September 2010

Anaheim Convention Center Anaheim, California

Early Bird Registration Deadline: 2 August 2010

The AIAA SPACE 2010 Conference & Exposition Explore solutions for the advancement of humankind at the AIAA SPACE 2010 Conference & Exposition!

New Topics for 2010:

• New Space—Review a new breed of entrepreneurial space companies • National Security Space—Discuss developments in advanced concepts of operations, material and architectural solutions, enterprise architecture analysis, multi-stakeholder, and space acquisition trends • Space Robotics—Gain insight into the latest technical advances in orbital I and planetary surface applications and space architectures, especially systems supporting robotic construction Co-located with the techniques 28th AIAA International • Space Colonization—Captivate the Communications Satellite Systems imagination of the next generation as we explore the moon and beyond Conference (ICSSC-2010)

www.aiaa.org/events/space www.aiaa.org/events/icssc

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NASA Jet Propulsion U.S. Air Force Space and Laboratory Missile Systems Center

Technical Program Co-Chaired by Organized by Supported by Ofﬁ cial Media Sponsors

AIAA Technical Activities Committee (TAC) Space & Missiles Group

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Japan’ssolarsailheadsstarward

FORGETTHE AMERICA’S CUP YACHTING and decided to try for an interplanetary should be able to accelerate up to 10% battle of Valencia in February this year— trial run, adding the space sail experi- of the speed of light. If there is a prob- what’s happening in space now may be ment to four other minisats piggybacking lem with this, it is how to slow down at the sailing event of the century. But we aboard its own HII-A F11 rocket, which the end of the trip. probably will not know the final result for was already due to launch the Akatsuki In practice, a great deal of patience about six months. (Dawn), a more conventional Venus Cli- will be needed; at the Earth’s distance On May 21, Japan launched into mate Orbiter observations satellite. from the Sun, the acceleration of the space a minisatellite with a thinner-than- Weather delays held the launch back space sail should be one-sixtieth the gossamer sail, to be powered by photons by a few days, but then the rocket left force of gravity. Beyond that distance, from the Sun. Been there, done that, you from the Tanegashima Space Center in the inverse square law applies, so the say? Agreed, part of the idea may seem southern Japan with no problems, and number of photons producing accelera- old hat—until you take a closer look. This rapidly deployed all six of its payload tion reduces as the sail gets farther away. 667-lb, 59-in.-tall, 15-in.-thick cylindrical components. The space sail minisat is Various solutions have been suggested, minisat is to show its paces by heading named Ikaros, which stands for inter- such as aiming giant laser beams into past Venus and the Sun rather than try- planetary kitecraft accelerated by radia- space to give space sails power, or using ing to demonstrate top performance in tion from the Sun. (Never mind that the a “slingshot” trajectory past the Sun. Earth orbit. No previous satellite has used acronym has unfortunate connotations In this application of science and en- light pressure as its primary means of because of the ancient Greek legend of gineering, size matters. Ikaros’s sail is a propulsion—this is what’s new, and it is Icarus: He and his father flew with wings technology demonstrator, and is a mod- why this experiment is so important to made of feathers held together with wax, est square measuring 46 ft on each side, the future of space exploration. but Icarus went too close to the Sun and made up of four triangular petals that un- There is nothing new about the idea crashed because the wax melted.) Going furled from a drum. To avoid having to of a space sail in itself—Japan deployed for an interplanetary run with a space provide bracing struts to pull the sail out, one on a suborbital flight to prove the sail is new, and that is why this technol- JAXA opted for small weights on lines, unfurling technology in 2004; the U.S. ogy demonstrator is important to the fu- and centrifugal force from spinning the has tried them in Earth orbit; India and ture of space exploration. minisat to throw the weights outward Russia have tried the same. None of the The sail expanded fully on June 9. and pull the sail petals off their storage orbital trials succeeded. Pressure exerted by photons—minute drum. A later version of Ikaros, many The idea has been around in science “packages” of light energy emitted by times larger, is intended to head for fiction since 1865, when Jules Verne the Sun—are now pushing the sail along Jupiter in about 2020. briefly mentioned the notion of using in much the same way that wind drives Deployment of the sail occurred over light pressure to drive a spacecraft. Sci- maritime sailing craft. The rate of accel- several days. With Ikaros spinning at 25 entists, engineers, and writers have pur- eration created by such tiny bundles of rpm, the membrane was pulled from its sued the idea over a good many years, energy is very small, but it is constant, container by guide weights. The four sail including, in 1964, scientist and writer and although it takes a while, the sail petals were released, extending outward Arthur C. Clarke. (The invention of the should accelerate to a reasonable speed, as the weights exerted centrifugal force. solar sail is often incorrectly attributed to an estimated 100 m/sec, according to In the final phase, holders restraining the Clarke, who did conceive the idea of the Ikaros’ creator, JAXA (Japan Aerospace sail petals’ bundled material were or- geostationary communications satellite.) Exploration Agency)—and should be able dered released and the petals unfurled. to reach Venus within about six months. JAXA performed the delicate maneuvers Interplanetary trial run slowly to avoid tearing the fragile mem- Weight and how to get sails to unfurl Slowness and patience brane. As planned, the sail’s expansion without tangling or tearing in space have Such a slow speed is hardly useful for slowed the craft’s spin rate, just as an ice always been problems. But materials sci- manned spaceflight, at least over rela- skater slows a pirouette by extending ence has come a long way since the pre- tively short distances like those within arms outward. Ikaros should continue to vious U.S. experiments (of which an- the solar system, considering the weight spin at about 1-2 rpm. JAXA confirmed other is scheduled for later this year by of people and stores to be accelerated. the full expansion of the sail and electric the Planetary Society, a nongovernmen- But for long-range unmanned probes, it generation with the thin film solar cells at tal group). So Japan has bitten the bullet is fine: In theory, at least, a light sail about 7.7 million km from Earth.

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Material breakthrough •Demonstrating guidance and attitude The sail itself is a masterpiece of design control by the sail’s reaction control de- and technology, comprising several dif- vices to show that a particular flight path ferent elements. The basic sail is an alu- can be achieved and maintained. minized polyimide film only 7.5 µm The first two are regarded as mini- thick. Ikaros project leader Osamu Mori mum objectives and have now been describes the material: “This film has to achieved, according to JAXA. be made from a material that’s not just Assuming all goes well, showing the lightweight but can withstand extreme solar power system to be capable has radiation and heat in space. The material implications for the Jupiter mission in that meets these conditions is polyimide the next decade. Says Mori, “The plan is resin, which is used as a foam insulation to equip the probe with an ion engine, for satellites. Once such a high-quality as well as a solar sail approximately 50 m material became available, the develop- in diameter. The larger the sail, the ment of a solar sail came much closer to larger the solar cell area, so the probe reality. will be very efficient, with no need to “Today, Japan has the largest mar- carry fuel. ket share in the world for polyimide part of the film, we can reduce the re- “But it is very difficult to use only so- resin. We are currently leading the race flectivity of that area.” This, in turn, cuts lar power for acceleration and at the to develop applications for this technol- the force exerted by the photons on that same time control the probe’s attitude, ogy, and it would mean a great deal to us part of the sail, and so can change the so we are planning to use a fuel-efficient to be the first in the world to build a direction of flight. ion engine along with the solar sail. working solar sail. Polyimide resin allows It has not been an easy trip to the However, the weakness of an ion engine us to create a much lighter sail. As well launch pad. The sail’s deployment was a is that it consumes a lot of electricity, so as being extremely strong, it doesn’t particular headache, said Mori before how do we give it a power source with- need glue, because it can be joined using takeoff. “The sail film doesn’t have a out carrying fuel? Jupiter is five times far- heat sealing. supporting frame,” he said, and for stor- ther from the Sun than Earth is. At that “Polyimide resin is originally yellow, age at launch it was folded and wrapped distance, solar cells will be only 4% as ef- but one side of Ikaros’s sail is silver. This around the main body of the spacecraft. ficient in generating power. is because aluminum is vapor-deposited Because the spacecraft continues to spin “For that reason, other countries’ on one side of the film, in order to reflect following the deployment of the sail, it missions that ventured past Jupiter have sunlight more efficiently. In addition, the will maintain centrifugal force and thus all used isotope batteries. But we are de- film is reinforced in such a way as to pre- keep the sail open. “This eliminates the termined to go to Jupiter using solar vent it from splitting all the way if it is need for a supporting frame for the sail cells, so we invented a way to generate ripped. If the solar sail is torn, its per- film, so the spacecraft can be very light.” electricity using the thin-film solar cell on formance will decline slightly, but it can the sail. We would like to use Ikaros to still continue its space travels.” Goals and outlook evaluate it, and share the technology The sail is also providing electrical Looking ahead to future missions, Mori with the next near-Jupiter exploration power. About halfway up each sail petal continued: “Using the centrifugal-force mission.” are thin-film solar array strips; collec- method, a bigger sail is easier to unfurl. Japan has a history of setting up very tively all four sets of strips occupy about Ikaros’s sail is small for a solar sail, but I reasonably priced scientific efforts. JAXA 5% of the sail’s area and produce about think sails with a diameter of 50-100 m previously announced plans to set up an 500 W of power. Assuming it works as will be developed in the near future.” unmanned lunar base by 2020 with a planned, this will take care of Ikaros’s The Ikaros Venus/solar mission has wheeled robotic lunar rover to explore “housekeeping” reports and computing four main objectives: the surface and report its findings back needs. Sail shape is fixed; changing •Demonstrating deployment of a large to Earth. Achieving that is expected to course is a matter of using the steering membrane sail in space by mechanical cost around $2 billion. Against that, the device in each petal—two reaction con- means—this is described as an “enabling cost of the Ikaros experiment was a bar- trol device strips near each edge contain technology.” gain at $16 million (yes,$16 million)—a liquid crystal cells whose reflectivity can •Generating power through the solar small price for a potentially huge scien- be changed. cells on the sail. tific and engineering reward. Says Mori, “It works just like frosted •Demonstrating photon propulsion or Michael Westlake glass. Normally, the entire area of the “light power” and measuring and analyz- Hong Kong sail will reflect sunlight, but by ‘frosting’ ing the results. [email protected]

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HUMAN RATING On May 24, AIAA held a roundtable NASA would have strong, proactive mis- to discuss the ramifications of human sion assurance and oversight of commercial human transport. We’ve got it in our rating spacecraft for commercial budget for the next few years. In the presi- space transportation. dent’s budget words, “To contract with industry, to provide ISS transport to and ROBERT DICKMAN Last December, John from the ISS for NASA astronauts as soon Marshall, who’s on the NASA Aerospace as possible to reduce the risk of depen- Safety Advisory Panel, told the House dence on foreign transport.” It has a sense Science Committee, “Because it’s illogical of immediacy. But it’s a proposal, we can’t to rely on commercial providers to pro- just jump on this right away. vide their own requirements for contrac- One of the things I am involved with is tual services on human spaceflight to how we’re going to acquire this service. NASA, the ASAP strongly believes that Now, there isn’t one to acquire right now; specific criteria should be developed to there is a lot of work to be done in devel- “A human-rated system establish how safe is safe enough for oping this capability. We did acquire a these services, including the need to stip- transportation service in 1995. We put accommodates human ulate directly the acceptable levels of risk NASA astronauts, Norm Thagard was the for various categories of activities.” first, on the Soyuz. And we didn’t do any- needs, effectively utilizes Our goal is to identify the processes thing like what you’d think of as human necessary to get to the point where com- rating. Here was a government operation human capabilities, controls mercial providers are certified by the that had already flown cosmonauts on government to carry NASA astronauts, about 60 flights. The question was, how hazards, and manages and then anyone, because these will be does NASA get comfortable enough to commercial launches licensed by the put our folks on there? We spent about safety risk associated with FAA. Let’s start with Bryan O’Connor. three years on this. BRYAN O’CONNOR When we talk about We had a human-rating document on human spaceflight, and how we’re going to deal with commercial the books in 1995, but we didn’t look for human transport to the international compliance with the Soyuz. This was a sys- provides, to the maximum space station [ISS], we’re reminded of tem with a very good track record—two guidance in the 2008 Appropriations Act fatalities in 60 flights, the last inside the extent practical, the and Authorization Act that encouraged first 10. They’d had some mission failures, us to continue looking at what we call aborts, and we looked into all of that. This capability to safely recover COTS [Commercial Orbital Transporta- was at a time when there was a lot more the crew from hazardous tion Services], which encouraged us to openness in discussions with the Russians. move further along in allowing for use of We camped engineers there to learn situations.…The overall commercial assets in transporting cargo how they designed, how they operated, and people to LEO. their weaknesses and strengths. And once objective is to provide the The business is coming along, maybe the books were opened we got comfort- not quite as fast as people thought when able enough to fly Norm. safest possible design that the Commercial Space Act came out, but When you’re developing a system like still coming along. Rockets are being de- Constellation, that’s when we put the can accomplish the mission, signed and human transport ideas thrown normal NASA acquisition process in place, around that NASA will eventually need to and that’s what our human-rating require- given the constraints on the depend on to reach the ISS. ments are based on—NASA development. How will we do that? Even though the When I think of human rating, I think, program, mass, volume, government is trying not to overregulate “This is a NASA development. We’re commercial human space transport, we going to put our requirements on this schedule, and cost.” don’t believe we have the flexibility to system. We’ll have an acquisition and a back off too much. In fact the Augustine procurement approach with our contrac- NASA NPR 8705.2 commission had the expectation that tors; we’ll have roles for the program, the

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projects, the various center oversight lents. There are very few mandatory that we’re going to continue.” organizations, and so on.” standards that we will not accept ideas DICKMAN You have a clear contractual rela- In carrying out that acquisition, there’s on tailoring. There are some we don’t tionship with the two COTS contractors an assumption that you’re doing a stan- have authority to tailor, in the safety and and different contractual relationships dard NASA-type development activity, medical areas, but there are hardly any in with a few others. Is there any barrier for and our standards and mandatory require- what I call the basic engineering require- a company talking to NASA about how ments would be incorporated. Much of ments and standards. things would go forward? that would then flow from program to As far as the acquisition approach, we O’CONNOR No. We want to hear from po- project to contractors. That’s how human are not sure exactly how to set up a pro- tential bidders, should we get a go-ahead rating is defined in our policy. gram like this; it’s a little unusual for us. I next year, on how they see our human-rat- Now, if we say, “What if we’re going to know a lot of people would like to hear ing plan making sense for them and us, do something between a standard NASA all that now, but we’re still working it. and ideas on tailoring some of the techni- acquisition and buying an existing ser- But remember, we believe that we are cal requirements. vice?” Well, we’re going to tailor it. accountable for their safety when we put We will find that, when we issue what That’s what we’re we call mandatory discussing right requirements we’d now. How do you impose on our- take what we selves if we were would do for a full- starting this from up NASA acquisi- scratch, some of tion, back off a the response will notch, and say, “If be, “We’ve already we’re not quite as built a rocket to involved at the this other stan- project or system dard.” And that’s level, but we’re man- fine. Let’s get some aging a program, and the program is our astronauts on something. We felt that feel for equivalents. Does it make us feel as dealing with contractors who are doing way on Soyuz. We learned as much as we comfortable as it would if we had done it development work to our requirements, could and felt a comfort level that our way? If not, is anything missing? Is and we need the insight to see how they allowed us to do that, and we’ll do the there something we can do instead? are doing it, and the appropriate over- same thing here. It may have a little dif- That’s using Soyuz thinking—there’s not a sight for risk management and to engage ferent form, and I anticipate it’ll be some- chance in the world that we’re going to our own technical authorities as appro- thing between those two extremes. have the Soyuz redesigned. priate, how would we do that?” DICKMAN A few Soyuz reentries were non- It was a matter of, “Does it give us a First, we’d send out an RFI and say, nominal. Did you take a different approach comfort level?” And if it’s not the way we “These are the requirements we would to looking at the systems and process? would do it and it does impose some risk, use if we were doing something like this.” O’CONNOR For the off-nominal entries, our is that a show-stopper, or is that just a lit- We’d take the requirements that apply to engineers felt they needed to know a little residual risk we’re willing to accept? human rating, trim off those that might tle more about what was going on. The I’m sure we’ll find some of that. But we’ve not be applicable, look at those that are Russians set up an independent commis- also worked with some of these folks fly- actually mandatory, and start there. We sion to investigate. We weren’t involved, ing cargo. We understand their systems, are talking about contractors who have but we got the results. We weren’t the so we won’t be starting from scratch. good processes and requirements in decision-makers other than, “Do we want Another point, though, is that we’ve place. And if we haven’t decided to call to continue to fly on this.” We did some got to integrate the escape and abort something mandatory, let’s not create it independent assessments on things we capability. That’ll be something different as mandatory if we don’t need to. could model to see if we’d get about the for everyone, whether they’re starting It will go to all interested parties for same answers we were hearing. from scratch or from an existing rocket. comment, and it’s basically a first cut at By and large, I was happy with the infor- Integrating that capability—we have a what our human-rating requirements and mation we were getting. In both cases, requirement for abort capability from 0-0 standards would look like. we came out saying, “Okay, we’ve got on the pad all the way to orbit insertion— And we will accept ideas on equiva- enough understanding and trust here is not a trivial engineering thing. It will

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probably be more difficult than any of us ing the design, development, and opera- or too prescriptive on the requirements anticipate. tions of our human spaceflight programs. for future vehicles and future operations, DICKMAN Let’s move to George at the FAA. But even if NASA were to design, build, we may inadvertently prevent the kind of GEORGE NIELD We’re working very closely test, operate, and certify the human rat- innovation and creativity we need if we’re with NASA on both current and planned ing of a launch vehicle without industry going to end up with safer, more cost- programs, because we have complemen- involvement, it would not be guaranteed effective systems. If we stick with current tary missions. NASA’s job is to pioneer the to be safe. Because all forms of transpor- design philosophies and operational future in space exploration, to extend hu- tation involve risk. According to the Na- practices, it’s likely we’ll end up unable to man presence throughout the solar sys- tional Transportation Safety Board, in significantly improve upon our current tem. The FAA’s job is to be the govern- 2007, over 41,000 people were killed on fatal accident rate for human spaceflight, ment regulator. our highways, over 800 in rail mishaps, which is on the order of one in 100, about Under current U.S. law, any U.S. citizen and nearly 1,200 in boating and general 10,000 times worse than the current rate or entity that wants to conduct a launch aviation accdents. for commercial aviation. of a vehicle anywhere in the world needs As Congress observed in the Commer- Where do we go from here? Based on to have a launch license from our office. cial Space Launch Amendments Act of direction from Congress, we have in place The only exceptions are for launches the 2004, space transportation is inherently an informed consent process. We have government carries out for the govern- risky. The shuttle program itself has had the statute; we have regulations for ELVs, ment. For example, if NASA were to de- two fatal accidents in 132 launches. So, RLVs, spaceports, and human spaceflight velop a new vehicle to launch its astro- just because a vehicle has gone through and crew. So, if a company were to show nauts to the ISS, it could do so without the human-rating process does not nec- up at our office tomorrow with a com- any involvement by the FAA. essarily mean it’s going to be safe. Con- plete application package, we are pre- On the other hand, if NASA were to en- versely, just because a vehicle does not pared to start reviewing it. And if it meets gage private industry to carry out those satisfy all of NASA’s human-rating re- existing requirements and regulations, launches, the requirement for licensing quirements, doesn’t mean we shouldn’t we’d be good to go to grant that license would come into play. And even for FAA- necessarily be operating it. for a commercial human spaceflight. licensed commercial launches, NASA is As a reminder, the shuttle doesn’t meet Starting in 2012, we’ll be able to issue free to establish mission-unique require- the latest version of the human-rating re- additional regulations, if needed, to fur- ments. They can be imposed as part of quirements. If they really were manda- ther protect spaceflight participants. But the Space Act Agreement or in the con- tory, maybe we need to think about the in the meantime, I’d really like to see a tract NASA negotiates with the launch next two launches. Should we proceed? dialogue within the aerospace commun- operator. So, there is no incompatibility The bottom line is, launching people ity, with the goal of coming up with what there with the two systems. In fact, that’s into space is risky. And you need to un- are really industry consensus standards, exactly what NASA has done for the COTS derstand those risks before you fly. even if the first draft is provided by NASA and Commercial Resupply Service pro- What does the way ahead look like? I through an RFI, that would lay out some grams set up to supply the ISS. All those think it makes a lot of sense to talk about top-level principles and practices we can launches will be FAA-licensed. certifying these vehicles the same way all agree on that would provide a basic My second point concerns the relation- we certify aircraft. But for certification to safety foundation. The FAA could reissue ship between safety and risk and human be successful, you need to have a lot of those as guidance documents, we could rating. The key point is, in my opinion, experience with the systems in question. refer to them in a safety approval that we that safety is not an absolute. In aviation, we gained that experience would grant, or we could start down what Statements have been made recently over more than 100 years of flight, with is a fairly lengthy road for eventual adop- that implied that all of our history to date hundreds of companies building thou- tion as official regulations. on human spaceflight has been carried sands of different aircraft, allowing us to Remember, when an accident occurs, out by government civil servants, and that learn which approaches work, which sys- and we know it’s going to occur some what is being proposed is just turning tems are safety-critical, and what the best day, there’s likely to be a fairly strong everything over to an inexperienced con- practices are. And although NASA has reaction by the media, on the Hill, and tractor. I think that’s somewhat disingen- developed tremendous expertise, in the public. And that uous. From before Alan we don’t have that depth of experi- could be extremely Shepard’s flight 49 ence in spaceflight. Over 49 years, harmful to the years ago, industry that experience is based on only a entire industry. has been closely few hundred launches of just a DICKMAN Some engaged with handful of designs. of you have NASA in conduct- The danger is, if we’re too rigid launched RoundTableLayout2.qxd:Layout 1 6/22/10 10:33 AM Page 5

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for the government before, not under Force on the Eastern Range to develop about the launch vehicle. Is that fair? license, for DOD. And all of you would like common safety standards, so that even if FRANK CULBERTSON Well, that’s part of it. to be launching for NASA in the future, it wasn’t word for word, the intent of Whether we’re launching commercially or but it’s going to be under license. What every requirement for launching off the for the government, we go through the do you see your companies doing differ- Range is equivalent, so there wouldn’t be same processes, reviews, safety assess- ently under license? conflicting standards whether it was a ments. And yes, a lot depends on who’s GEORGE SOWERS From our perspective, we launch for the Air Force or a commercial involved as to where you deliver the launch for the DOD and NASA without a vehicle. After a long time we finally cap- data. But, it’s pretty much the same data, license, but we have to meet Range safe- tured current practice. There are im- and it is the Range in addition to NASA ty requirements. We have to create a lot provements we can and want to make, and FAA that you’ve got to satisfy. of data and prove that we are protecting but that at least has been documented in The boundaries kind of cross in various the public’s safety. our FAA regulations as a starting place. places, depending on where you launch We deliver the same data package to We’ve seen the benefit of this coopera- from, but the basic process doesn’t the FAA for commercial launch for a tion to the extent that we believe it makes change that we can see. You’re going to launch license. So, from our perspective, sense to have NASA as one of the part- have the same level of diligence on the the process to launch for DOD or NASA ners. We’ll be talking with NASA about part of all four parties, no matter what and to launch for the FAA is essentially having a three-person partnership, if you the flavor of the launch is. I don’t see FAA the same. It’s just who we deliver the will, for that common standards working license or no license as a major factor. data to that changes. We’d like to see a group on the Ranges to ensure govern- We’re working through the process very similar thing for commercial space- ment consistency across the board. with both the FAA and NASA leading to flight, that there aren’t new requirements DICKMAN So, for the unmanned vehicle, our readiness for our first launch. They’re imposed by the FAA. If it meets NASA’s the vehicle’s the same, the safety’s the both in the room, and they’re both giving requirements, it would meet the FAA’s. same, the processes are the same, the us feedback and discussing what issues NIELD That’s right. And looking at ELVs eventual decision authority changes, but need to be resolved. I think it’s working over the years, we’ve tried to do exactly it’s really a change in acquisition very well in terms of being a partnership. that. We worked very hard with the Air approach rather than how you think KEN BOWERSOX You end up with a process

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in parallel. All the decision authorities try came from the DOD as far as ability to spective, so that we can try and eliminate to work together if you’re doing it effi- launch and to quickly land.” And that it. And if we’re smart enough to look 15 or ciently. It gets a little complicated, be- gave us this vehicle. 20 years down the road, then whoever cause sometimes they’ll have different When they were done with the report, holds all this data could pick the systems levels of acceptance on the rules, and they added Section 9.3, which gave us that offer the least risk, so that if we are that can be tough for the person trying guidance about what we as a nation going to do something beyond LEO we to get approval because it’s a little less should do. And one of the things is that can pick the best systems. predictable, but any one of the parties you need to have a compelling national DICKMAN It strikes me that the bar they set could tell you to stop. So the change vision. They used the words, “A lack of may be so high that you can’t do explo- from going all-government to including national leadership.” ration beyond Earth orbit. You might be FAA is one additional decision authority. They talked about not relying on break- safe enough to go to the Moon, but going MICHAEL BLOOMFIELD If we do have an through technology, not mixing cargo further than that, if safety is the overriding accident, there’s going to be a presiden- and crew. And then they said, “The de- consideration, you may not ever be able tial commission, and it’s going to be a sign of the system,” talking about the to do a mission. really big deal. That’s happened twice so shuttle replacement, “should give over- BLOOMFIELD That’s a great point. In Sec- far. For Columbia, I served as the ex-offi- riding priority to crew safety rather than tion 9.3, they’re very careful to point out cio member to the Columbia Accident In- trade crew safety against performance that wherever you decide to go, the first vestigation Board [CAIB], and I walked criteria such as low cost and reusability or thing you have to do is get to Earth orbit, away from that a different person. And against advanced space operations other and the last thing you have to do is get part of what I learned was how passion- than crew transfer.” back from Earth orbit. And they would ately that board felt about history being a That’s completely in line with what we contend that that’s where, right now, a cause just as much as the foam. They have heard here today, that we cannot large part of the risk is. were very clear. They said, in no uncertain trade safety away. It must be there at the We’ve been going to and from Earth terms, that the foam did it. very beginning. How do we put human- orbit for 40 or 50 years. We ought to be But they were just as clear when they rating requirements in place such that we able to take something that maybe we said, “History is a cause.” That’s the sec- can do what has been asked by the CAIB? understand a little bit more and reduce ond half of the CAIB report. They spent a And those requirements should come out the risk down. The crew office would sug- lot of time talking about early decisions as quickly as possible, so you can build gest one in 1,000 based on that memo that put smart people in this untenable the vehicle from the ground up with crew they came out with right after Columbia. position of trying to manage the system safety in mind rather than trying to go DICKMAN One in 1,000 would be an incred- and keep the risk down where we could back and fix it. ibly difficult number. How could you cer- do it safely. On two occasions we were I agree with the thought process about tify something you believe is one in 1,000? unable to do that. The risk got too high. not being too restrictive in law, allowing That’s an incredible flight test program. Despite the efforts of some really smart innovations to take place. Since Colum- O’CONNOR I remember when we were look- people, we ended up losing a vehicle. bia, the probabilistic risk assessment [PRA] ing at operational requirements documents They’ll tell you, “Well, we made the de- has become a very valuable tool for the for aircraft. The tradition there was reliabil- cisions early on in the process that we’re shuttle program. PRAs allow you to look ity requirements that could be verified by not going to do crew escape because we at what scenarios are likely to happen, so flight test. Ground test was good, but think we can be reliable enough. We’re that we can rank order them to under- flight test is where you did operational going to put wings on this vehicle so we stand where to apply resources. evaluations, and enough flights in the ap- can meet some other requirements that It might be very useful for NASA or FAA propriate environment with real operators to take a look across all the systems and to show at 50% confidence that you actu- come up with a rigorous process, be- ally had met the thresholds—maintenance cause PRAs allow us to make direct com- man-hours per flight hour, flight hours parisons between systems from a risk per- between failures, flight hours between critical failures. We don’t have that luxury in spaceflight. RoundTableLayout2.qxd:Layout 1 6/22/10 10:33 AM Page 7

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We tend to fly our missions on top of what tle money as possible, that your priority is looking at NASA human-rating require- I call operational flight test. We have to cost. At SpaceX, our mission statement ments five, six years ago, and they were think about what we do as verifying by says that we’re trying to build the safest, very prescriptive. We tried to get at the analysis, verifying by ground test, doing most reliable, and economical transpor- requirements that would be most diffi- what verification is conceivable and tation to LEO. It’s that way on purpose, cult to implement later and put them in appropriate and can be done with our because we believe making safety the the early designs, so when we moved to budget in flight tests, first unmanned and priority is good business. If you’re per- a human rating, the major items would then manned if you need them. ceived as unsafe, nobody is going to buy be taken care of. If you need people in a flight test, fly your vehicle no matter how cheap it is. Along the way, NASA changed its re- them. If you don’t need them, don’t fly When you talk about safety, the strug- quirements to more of a process-based them. You’ll probably need some flight gle is finding where that fuzzy line is— approach, based on building trust be- tests just to certify that you’ve met your safest, or safest within performance and tween the group approving the design technical requirements, but no way in the cost limits, etc. Where are those lines? and the one trying to build it. That’s very world can we certify with any level of The truth is, they change constantly, with important. Those prescriptive require- confidence what our actual safety is by technology, with cultures. If you look at ments are very helpful, though it’s possi- flight test until way downstream. how Soyuz is designed, it’s not the way ble to go too far. If you set requirements You can compare systems, look at dif- we would necessarily design a crewed that are so aggressive and so biased ferent risks and how they rank with the vehicle. That’s where the human-rating toward safety and performance that they same set of assumptions, how the differ- standards can be really valuable to every- are impossible to do within whatever the ent risks line up with one another and one trying to build vehicles. cost limits are, it doesn’t help anyone. see which ones you need work on. That’s They can distill the experience of years It helps for the organizations building a good use of PRA. of development into a set of requirements to human-rating requirements to have BOWERSOX One thing that comes to mind that will help focus and maximize the examples from the past—shuttle, Gemini, when people talk about commercial probability that companies will have a Apollo, Mercury. And Soyuz, too, since in space activities is this idea that commer- good outcome in their designs. all likelihood, until we have a new U.S. cial means you’re trying to do it for as lit- We started with Dragon and Falcon 9 spacecraft, that’s what U.S. astronauts will

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be riding on. And it’s important that we It’s pretty smart. It knows where it’s without looking at the whole system. build standards that will enable compa- going, it goes pretty fast, pretty far, and That’s the dilemma of this whole thing, nies to build alternatives to Soyuz and gets within a fraction of a kilometer of that it’s wrapped up in this big ball of not set up roadblocks that guarantee that where it’s trying to go at the right speed. yarn, and how do I just pull one piece we’ll be flying on Soyuz forever. So other than trying to get out of an un- out and talk about it without looking at An example of that from the human-rat- safe posture, I’m not sure you want a the entire system. ing requirements that were given to the whole lot of controls. KEN REIGHTLER I agree. The classic argu- Constellation team is the requirement for BREWSTER SHAW We’re talking about a ment always comes down to, if you’ve Ares and Orion that the crew have the commercial crew here, going somewhere got a crew on board who are capable and capability to monitor and control the like ISS, which means you have to insert trained, have good processors between vehicle’s trajectory up until the point that into orbit very accurately or you’ll never their ears to be able to supplement they separate from the booster. get there. And the chances of a human what’s in the system, why not use them? There was some relaxation of that, but hand-flying during powered flight and Because the day will come when you will what a lot of people don’t know is the being accurate enough to achieve align- need to take over. Soyuz doesn’t have that capability. You ment with the ISS orbit is pretty small. So The other side of that argument is, we are along for the ride until you separate what you’re really talking about with hu- have reached the point where avionics from the booster. At that point, the crew man interaction is not loss of mission but are good enough and reliable enough has some control over trajectory, but loss of crew. And when you have a sys- and robust enough to be able to not re- before that, it’s all taken care of by com- tem that is comprised of a fairly reliable quire some tertiary level of redundancy puters. There’s not even a display to see launch vehicle, a very reliable human- to be able to achieve the mission. how fast you’re going or what the atti- rated spacecraft, and a launch abort sys- DICKMAN It would seem like a very expen- tude is. There’s also no big red button the tem [LAS] that will get that spacecraft sive process to put real control in. crew can push to try and abort when away from a problematic launch vehicle SHAW From a safety standpoint, if you were they’re going uphill. to recover the crew intact, you’ve got a going to use one of George’s vehicles to All of these things, from the point of good system that we all ought to be get your spacecraft to orbit, the risk trade- view of an American astronaut, would be happy to fly. off of going into the guts of his rocket to critical. Before I got trained on Soyuz, I But asking someone to try to hand-fly in-place the capability to hand-fly, it would would have considered them mandatory. powered flight and accomplish the mis- insert a lot higher risk than it would be to But after having experienced the Russian sion is unreasonable. And if you’re not trust that system. And if the system does way of doing business, I realize it’s been going to do that, then what you give not work, you push the red button. very reliable over the years. So, maybe I them is the red button that gets you CULBERTSON In addition, if you’re going to need to open up my thinking a bit and away from the rocket when things start put a human in the loop, training issues consider other options. to go south. have to be addressed. People vary, and The last thing is that trust issue. As we BLOOMFIELD You’re exactly right. The making sure they’re really ready is a chal- work through human-rating requirements, point is, it’s hard to take one require- lenge. The Russians put you through a the primary goal of that process is build- ment, like you just threw out on the very rigid exam on everything that has to ing trust between the customer using the table, and answer that one requirement be done manually in the Soyuz. We’re a service and the company providing it. If you have that trust, the outcome will be what everyone needs, and we’ll get the safest, most reliable, economical transportation service, and it will be something that’s good for our country. DICKMAN I didn’t understand that shuttle did a whole lot of controlling between launch and the time it got to orbit by somebody moving a stick. BOWERSOX Auto’s the primary mode, but you have the option to fly, outside the first 90 seconds. First 90 seconds there are other things going on, so for the crew to try and fly could damage the vehicle. But the crew has the option of taking over and steering, though it has never happened. DICKMAN Would that kind of requirement make any sense as you build your vehicles? In the ELV world, you don’t put extraneous commands into the vehicle.

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little different here, but we’d still have The decision was the probability of sav- system. This might be an area where you thousands of hours of training to make ing the first flight, which was going to could get some commonality, at least in sure people are ready to do the manual have a 13-minute blackout during reentry design approach and in when’s it appro- things they’re called on to do. and therefore you couldn’t save the day priate to use a pusher, when’s it appropri- BOWERSOX One reason possibly for includ- with people on the ground. And they ate to use a tractor, and what kind of con- ing manual capability is when you think said, “If we have people on board, and trol authority you need, etc. There’s room about Range safety. I’ve been told that, give them some capability to handle dy- for some innovative thinking here. for shuttle, one of the reasons that some namic instabilities that could show up, O’CONNOR That might be worth getting of the Range safety aspects are relaxed and give them switches to change gains some input on when our RFI goes out. compared to an ELV is that the crew can and train them to handle all the various We did a lot of analysis, which I’m proud take action, for example, to turn the en- things that could come up, that could of, as part of Constellation integration gines off and terminate thrust. The Soyuz actually save the flight and save the team. The abort trigger analysis folks at doesn’t have that capability during ascent. orbiter and save the program.” Ames helped us with that integrated We could give our crews that capability, DICKMAN NASA could say, “We’ll issue your design. And that feeds right back into and it might change the need for an abort system and you’ll screw it on top of the design of the system itself. explosive packet on the rocket. your capsule.” Does that make sense from My guess is, that process they went DICKMAN NASA’s plan was, or is, to fly as- the view of the companies, or should that through, the kind of tools they used, the tronauts on the second full-up orbital be an integral part of the design process? way they posed the accident scenario flight of Ares I. That seems like a pretty O’CONNOR It’s going to depend on the sys- questions might be something everyone low number of flights. tem. Each system will have slightly differ- could benefit from. Rather than putting O’CONNOR There’s an asterisk that says ent answers to its abort analysis, its trig- GFE on everyone, something in the way there’s some chance that we may want to ger analysis, its trajectory, its mass alloca- of some standard process for coming up do two of those unmanned test flights. In tions, its crew interventions, and all those with the right answer might be useful. fact, that argument was still going on other things. I’d hate to say that this piece SHAW There’s a basic business issue with when the budget came out. of hardware is going to be GFE [govern- GFE LAS. That system puts the highest There are various types of test flights, ment-furnished equipment] and you’ve loads in the spacecraft of any loads dur- and one of them is when you get beyond got to make it work for your system. It’s ing its mission. So if you wait for the gov- prototypes like the Ares I-X. I’m past that best to tune your escape system to your ernment to provide a LAS, it goes to the now. I’m into the full-up test flight, and system. It’s a real integration issue. very structural design of your spacecraft. we need to do some flight tests to finish KEN REIGHTLER Given what we learned on You have to have the loads going in the the certification that this meets the de- the LAS for Orion, I’d absolutely agree that right place, so the LAS design is hugely sign intent. And when you do that, you trying to retrofit that into some other ve- important and a driver in the structural line up all your objectives. These are the hicle would be extremely difficult. design of the spacecraft, and a big sched- things we watch happen in a real environ- CULBERTSON There is another way to look ule driver. So from a business standpoint, ment on a flight test, because we can’t do at this, though, if NASA were to establish that would be an undesirable path. it any other way. itself as the technical authority on LAS DICKMAN Is the person driving the Dragon, You line those up and ask, “Do we have and do the requisite evolutionary design for example, going to be one of NASA’s? to have people on board in order to do evaluations, testing, set some standards, O’CONNOR Part of that just depends on that?” We went through this on shuttle, then make that available to industry to what we give them as the mission. Until and I wondered how we got to the point choose and tune appropriately for their recently, we were talking about a system where we flew people on the first orbital that would go up, stay at the ISS for six test flight. We hadn’t done that on earlier months, then come down. Now if all we programs. They didn’t know how many need is an up and down, that totally flight tests when this decision was made, opens up a new concept for crew opera- but knew there’d be some flight tests. tions. The taxi mode looks much more The question was raised as early as feasible and reasonable than it would 1974, and they decided then to plan on have if you’re going to leave your taxi up people going on the first test flight, be- there. Maybe that’s a rental car concept. cause they felt they needed them. The BOWERSOX The way it’s going to work is hypersonic risk was the real issue. It was what makes the most sense from a busi- not ascent; it was the hypersonic entry ness case. And typically, you can sell the that drove this decision. When you’ve got pilot seat for more money. If the custo- a model this big in a hypersonic wind mer wants the pilot seat, you get more tunnel, there’s a lot of uncertainty on the money to train them and prepare them. stability derivatives that come out. And I think there’s going to be less piloting some of those uncertainties overlapped, involved, but especially in the early and there were questions about how this missions we’d see folks with flying thing would actually operate when it backgrounds in the seats. came through hypersonic flight. You can build a vehicle

AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2010 33 Honoring Achievement: An AIAA Tradition AIAA is proud to honor the very best in our industry: those individuals and teams who have taken aerospace technology to the next level…who have advanced the quality and depth of the aerospace profession…who have leveraged their aerospace knowledge for the beneﬁ t of society.

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AIAA Aeroacoustics Award AIAA Fluid Dynamics Award Dennis K. McLaughlin Bram van Leer Professor of Aerospace Engineering Arthur B. Modine Professor The Pennsylvania State University Aerospace Engineering University Park, Pennsylvania University of Michigan – Ann Arbor Ann Arbor, Michigan AIAA Aerodynamic Measurement Technology AIAA Foundation Award Award for Excellence Walter Lempert Joint Strike Fighter Program Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Chemistry The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio

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AIAA Aerospace Design AIAA Ground Testing Award Engineering Award Frederick L. Shope Engineer Charles E. Hall Jr. Aerospace Testing Alliance Associate Professor of Arnold AFB, Tennessee Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina AIAA International Cooperation Award AIAA Distinguished Service Kenneth D. Hodgkins Award Director, Ofﬁ ce of Space and Advanced Technology Arnold D. Aldrich U.S. Department of State Lockheed Martin Corporation (Retired) Washington, D.C. Bethesda, Maryland

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AIAA National Capital Section AIAA Survivability Award Barry M. Goldwater Educator Walter Dotseth Award Technical Manager (Retired) Gary K. Davis Northrop Grumman Corporation Director, Ofﬁ ce of Systems Development Laguna Woods, California NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service AIAA Thermophysics Award Silver Spring, Maryland Datta Gaitonde Technical Area Leader, High-Speed Flows AIAA Plasmadynamics and Air Vehicle Directorate Lasers Award Air Force Research Laboratory Sterge T. Demetriades Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio President (Retired) STD Research Corporation Daniel Guggenheim Medal Sierra Madre, California (Sponsored by AIAA, AHS, ASME, and SAE)

AIAA Public Service Award Arthur E. Bryson Professor Emeritus Miles O’Brien Stanford University Aviation, Space and Technology Stanford, California Journalist Miles O’Brien Productions New York, New York

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that’s so easy to fly that it doesn’t neces- stuff was automated, but you had to have way to keep the crew alive, but I think sarily require someone with a pilot back- manual backup. keeping that separate in our minds is ground, and we’re hoping that the One of the things we were working on extremely important. And the country Dragon would be that simple. really late in the process was a concern has to make some hard decisions. Do we REIGHTLER If you’re designing the mission about whether the SRBs were going to want to keep flying people or not? to be completely autonomous and you separate. They talked about whether they And if we want to maintain our ability have full capability and reliability and re- could put a software patch in. But be- to explore space, we do have to keep fly- dundancy, etc., to achieve that mission, cause software was what it was in the ’80s, ing humans. That means we have to put why do you need a pilot? Do you really they also had a crew workaround. In my the level of priority on their safety that it need to have somebody with all that 18 years at NASA, that became one of the deserves, and that means you can’t take capability and provide all the controls favorite ways to solve design problems. shortcuts. And none of us here are going and displays, etc., or do you use that But that’s the least desirable approach. to worry about profit over safety. weight and space for other things? What that means is you’ve got to design I think you can count on industry to do Or do you try to put another level of your system so that from a system safety what needs to be done to meet the re- redundancy by allowing people to take standpoint you are addressing all these quirements, but we have a customer in over manually? It will probably be a hard things from the very beginning and not NASA who’s been doing this for 50 years. sell to get there initially, but I think even- relying on the crew to save you. And we’re eager to work with them to tually that’s where we’ll be. The astronaut The ability of computers and control make sure we understand what their re- office had weighed in that they wanted systems to control spacecraft accurately quirements are, what the probability of the rental car model. That may have or maintain their own systems integrity is success on the missions is, what reliabil- changed with some decisions lately, but far superior to what it was when a lot of ity levels are necessary. there is an official document out there our legacy systems were designed, and I That’s a hard thing to agree on. One in that lists pretty clearly the pros and cons think we need to take advantage of that 1,000, one in 400, one in 100. What’s the of doing that. It’s pretty convincing to me when we are human-rating our vehicles. right number? We’ll have to reach agree- that that’s the direction to go. What that leads you to is, how much ment on that, and we’ll have to achieve CULBERTSON You have to have, in your re- crew do you need to have involved, and that in order to satisfy the customer, and quirements, the ability to download to do you have pilots on board, or do you also to do the right thing for the country the point where you know you’re going have operators on board. I don’t think a and for the people who are flying. to get the crew back safely. And whether whole lot of piloting is going to go on in O’CONNOR One thing we’ve mentioned that’s a LAS or a ballistic reentry—and I many future spacecraft operations, except several times is the priority of safety. agree those are the two riskiest parts of for very rare cases. Someone once said to me, “I’m a little the flight—you’ve got to have that as a It’s not as simple as, what’s your level concerned about your emphasis on basic part of the design. of redundancy, how many backup sys- safety. Shouldn’t your job over there be The issues we’ve been discussing, crew tems do you have; it’s how the whole sys- exploration, not safety?” And I realized involvement in the mission and the flight tem plays together. So we need to make that we may not be making the right in order to ensure no loss of life, mission sure that our requirements and our safety choice of words to the public. assurance, etc., have evolved over time a standards are written with that in mind. When Brewster Shaw was the program great deal. Most of us started flying when That brings you to, why are we flying manager for the shuttle, he reminded his autopilot and autorendezvous and auto- humans? We’re not flying humans to en- troops that the priority of the shuttle pro- land were seen as pretty cool things but sure that we hit a target or that we’re gram was, first, fly safely. Not safety, but you never really trusted them. You always getting passengers to a destination. We fly safely. And when you look at safety at had your hand by the stick. The shuttle are flying humans because we want to was designed with that in mind; a lot of get humans into space and do it the safest way possible, which means keeping the crew safe is the number one priority by far, over and above the mission. There will come a time, as we get further away from LEO, where things will change to a certain extent, where achieving the mission will be the only

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NASA you’ll find it’s a core value, not a bility of failure will be on the system when when to abort. priority. It’s not a mission. It doesn’t com- it’s operational. There’s no model that’ll That gets the safety element, but pro- pete with the mission. But sometimes do that. Models, as you know, by defini- viding that intact abort capability is a big people think that’s what we’re saying. tion are wrong. system integration exercise, and part of Safety, reliability, quality, integrity, If we use a PRA that does a certain type that is the environments you abort into. those kinds of things that show up in our of accident scenario analysis using similar Those are the elements of a human-rated core values and so on, I think of as ad- kinds of assumptions, and from that PRA system at the system level. verbs, and the verbs are our priorities. we want to see something that looks like DICKMAN Your vehicles were clearly not The verbs are explore, operate, discover, it’s an order of magnitude better than built with the level of health monitoring but the way we do those verbs is by at- that other thing we did the same analysis and real-time transmission of that infor- taching the adverbs of “safely” and “reli- on, now you’re getting to where these mation and ability to act on it that would ably,” and “with integrity.” things can be useful. But some of our be required if it was carrying a human. They shouldn’t be seen as competing engineers really don’t like to use that I’m pretty sure we didn’t put that kind of with but modifying our mission. And if PRA, because they know it’s just a single requirement on either the Delta IV or the our first priority is to fly safely rather than tool in a big toolbox. Atlas V. That health monitoring to the safety, that explains why we actually fly, DICKMAN One of the challenges with PRA is point where you could know within a because if it were safety, we could meet that it focuses on design and to some fraction of a second that you needed to that priority very easily by not flying. extent ignores process. In a very real abort wasn’t part of the design require- REIGHTLER There’s that quote we’ve all sense, Challenger was a process problem. ment placed by the government. heard: “Ships are safest when in the har- It should never have been launched at SOWERS That’s true. We’re working on the bor, but that’s not what ships are for.” that temperature. emergency detection system under a DICKMAN I worry about the one in 400 and As NASA goes through the oversight/ NASA contract right now, so we’re get- one in 1,000 number. They’re so much insight in terms of certifying, what’s the ting into it pretty deeply. higher than anything we have achieved continuing process for watching the pro- In our first cut at what measurements, before. We could keep ourselves on the cesses? George, once a license is issued, what instruments we’d need to detect ground trying to achieve them, and that’s do you step back?. failure across the board, we’ve done a where I think your challenge is going to NIELD We develop and issue regulations. fault coverage assessment, which is look- come to play. We issue licenses, permits and safety ap- ing comprehensively at all the potential O’CONNOR One of the problems we have provals, but we also maintain a cadre of failure modes and what measurements when we talk about numbers like that is, safety inspectors present at every li- you’d need to detect those modes in we don’t necessarily include the verifica- censed launch. We oversee the launch time to effect an abort. That assessment tion piece. For example, if we’re going to operators, whom we hold responsible for has not revealed any instruments that require that a design meet some number safety, to ensure they are following their weren’t already on the vehicle. like that, we need to explain how we’re promises and established regulations. The level of redundancy and the qual- going to verify that and what the uncer- SOWERS I think human rating is really an ity of the instruments may need to be en- tainties are, and include the assumptions, attribute of a system—it’s a system-level hanced, because now they’re in a critical because what we’re talking about is com- property. I’ve heard talk about human- function vs. just being instrumentation, paring the results of a model to the re- rated valves or engines or components, but we instrument a rocket so that we sults of that same model applied to some and that doesn’t really make a lot of can tell after the fact, if they fail, what other situation or design. It’s not meant sense to me. It’s at the system level. happened, so we can fix it. So the cover- to say we know exactly what the proba- From a rocket guy’s perspective, it starts age has been there. with a reliable rocket. That’s where the DICKMAN Frank, I don’t know where you mission assurance part comes in. We talk were in the Taurus II process when you about mission success, which is deliver- started thinking about adding crew, but ing the payload to the right orbit. I don’t are you having to change much? think that is in any way in conflict with CULBERTSON A crew was not really con- loss of crew. The best way to have safety templated for the Taurus II when we is to have a successful mission. started that design. There would have With our history of dealing with the NRO to be modifications to make it suitable. and its culture of mission assurance, which DICKMAN I guess SpaceX was thinking that is very rigorous, and talking now with the mode early on. NASA human spaceflight community, we BOWERSOX Yes, that was part of the plan are finding that the jargon may be differ- from the beginning with Falcon 9; you ent, but the values are closely aligned. can see it in some of the design features. But, starting with a reliable rocket, add- REIGHTLER NASA and Lockheed Martin ing an emergency detection system en- have learned a lot about this in the four ables us to perceive whether the rocket is years of working together. We’ve begun sick or healthy. And if we get a signal of to really appreciate what’s involved, how sickness, the spacecraft decides if and difficult it is to work through. We tried to

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incorporate all of the experience we’ve amount, and people protect their inter- been mentioned here. And from a mission gained working with other customers as est. That is a factor when it comes to how assurance standpoint we look at failure, well as working for NASA in the design. do you work together. You can’t ignore tolerances, probabilities, design practices, When I look at it, human rating is an competition. We don’t ignore it because critical items, failure mode affects and integral part of all of the program activi- we’re all in business. analysis, hazards analysis, parts traceability. ties associated with human spaceflight CULBERTSON There are lots of cases where After design requirements you have throughout the life cycle. It includes re- we get together, whether it’s in an exist- certifications. And then, of course, it goes search on the front end; requirements ing program, at conferences, forums, etc. into operation, and it’s very important to development; requirements integration, One of the most valuable parts of the always use the hardware the way it was which is probably the most difficult part industry is that we all know each other, designed to be used. When you stop of the sausage-making; design and devel- whether we compete or team at a given doing that you get yourself into trouble. opment; test verification and validation. time. We know what we’re doing, and we You have to have some methodology for And then, finally, certification. know our objective—to safely fly people management of waivers, because there It requires top-level guidance but also in space. We see a lot of the problems ad- are always things that aren’t quite the inputs from safety and mission assurance, dressed in these forums in a very open way they ought to be. the crew office, engineering, health and way. It’s a bit of a balancing act, but this But we need a well-defined, stable medical, program management, and in- is a unique community, because we’re regulatory and requirements environment. dustry. All those different components trying to fly humans and keep them alive. We have to understand the rules of the have to interact. So, yeah, we do share a lot. road, and they have to be reasonably Human rating does involve procedure SHAW We’re terribly interested in this sub- stable, because we’re going to have to go documents, requirements, standards and ject, for obvious reasons. From our per- outside where we are provided indemni- specifications, but you need the knowl- spective, there are four major players: the fication by the government. We have to edge and experience to be able to under- Eastern and Western Test Ranges are be able to buy insurance. And if the stand how to integrate them, to apply responsible for launch vehicle public insurance industry doesn’t have any con- them in a smart and effective way. But it safety; NASA is responsible for the safety fidence that the regulatory environment also requires a strong culture, constantly of government astronauts and the pro- or the risk environment is well under- driven by purpose, experience, and leader- tection of government property; the FAA stood and is reasonably stable, we won’t ship. That sometimes gets overlooked. has authority for public safety; and then be able to buy insurance. And without And probably the most important part, there’s Boeing, which has a very signifi- insurance, you can’t stand the risk of a from my perspective, is it takes a work- cant brand and reputation to uphold. bad problem happening. force that believes in the processes and There are certain goals we’d like to see The risk posture must be measurable methods, understands what’s at stake, achieved in coming to an acceptable so- and at least acceptably stable. And in a and has taken personal responsibility to lution for how we fly commercially. One fixed-price environment we need a mech- make it all really work. You have to have is clear RAA—responsibility, authority, anism to deal with government changing the ability to work and talk together and and accountability between the Range, its mind from a regulatory standpoint. understand the real mission. It takes ex- NASA, and FAA. That means we need to There has to be, even on a fixed-price perience, both good and bad—we learn understand, from a business perspective, contract, some kind of an opening that from those things what works and what who’s in charge and who sets what re- allows NASA to come in and say, “No, we does not—and a passion to make things quirements and who establishes what want to see this test and that data, and we work the way they’re supposed to. regulations. We need clear, well-docu- want you to go off and do this research,” Also, it takes a lot of money. It doesn’t mented requirements. or, “We’re changing the rules of the road happen on its own. You’ve got to have A strict definition of oversight or in- a little bit, and you’ve got to be able to the things in place to make it all come sight on the part of the government is together, but, as history has shown us, it’s very important, especially when we’re worth it. We always tend to underesti- talking about the kind of contracting mate the cost in blood in terms of mak- mechanisms that are being discussed ing those systems work. relative to commercial crew. And there DICKMAN You’re in competition for pieces has to be a methodology for regulatory of this and in partnership on others, but changes in this fixed-price environ- sharing your thoughts about what makes ment, because regulatory changes on sense and what doesn’t—is that some- the government’s part can drive cost thing that happens? hugely. SHAW Sure. For example, in the shuttle From the Boeing standpoint, we program, five primary companies are have, over our years of involvement responsible for shuttle systems and oper- in space and aircraft, established ations. We work very closely together, the methodologies we use to but we’re not competing with each other. design and certify flying As soon as you insert competition, the machines. We look at all conversation closes down a certain the things that have

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deal with that.” And in a fixed-price failure tolerance. In other words, fail-op. ator models. And that does bring a differ- environment, you have to be able to You can’t use abort for that. Abort is ent set of dynamics and responsibilities. have some way to handle that. something you do in addition to that. But, we’re all pretty familiar with that Boeing intends to protect space travel- Fail-op is the requirement, and then the because NASA, to a certain degree, has ers. Our reputation is at stake. So if we are fail-safe is applied by a different require- operated in that mode for the entirety of involved we’re going to do it right, and ment, abort that can be used all through human spaceflight programs. Not neces- we’re going to do it successfully, because ascent. So, it’s really a fail-op/fail-safe sarily the designer and builder, but cer- we have all the scars and all the experi- requirement. tainly a smart buyer and then operator. ence to help us learn how to do that. But But the way it’s written is that you start So we know how to do that as a nation. these regulatory environments are all with a minimum of single failure tolerance, I would add one comment. We’ve very critical to making a business case. that is fail-op, but there then has to be dis- talked about the physics of safety. And O’CONNOR As everyone here knows, there’s cussion about why you might need more something that is really important is the a reason why managers on NASA pro- than that. That discussion is part of man- human factors of safety, not with regard grams are called risk managers. Our risk aging the program, accepting the risk, or to the people who are exposed to the management system is set up to allow for doing more to get to a comfortable risk risk, but to the leadership of these pro- the fact that not everything you do is posture. And that’s the way we’re set up grams, whether it’s a NASA program or a going to be simply complying with some to manage the programs we design and commercially led program, because both standard black-and-white requirement develop. We’re having lots of discussions of the failures we’ve had with shuttle you either meet or don’t. A lot of stuff in NASA right now about how you do that were clearly failures of leadership. goes on in the design in the way of trades, if you’re stepping back and watching And that is something that will ever be in the way of hazards, that are less than someone else do it, and verifying that a challenge for us, because of the way we controlled but may be acceptable. their process is robust enough to where operate and the way we think, that we We have a yellow area between the red you, as the customer, can also accept that are susceptible to making poor judgment and the green at NASA, and use it quite same risk. calls. What is lacking, and has been ad- often. It’s an area where you do not have That’s a kind of a challenge in the area dressed by NASA reasonably well since stable requirements to give you the right of how to manage a program when you Columbia, is the check and balance rela- answer. What you have is judgment, tech- have to allow for that kind of discussion tive to leadership of these programs and nical authorities weighing in, relative to go on, because it tends to look like re- the people that are in decision-making risks, comparisons with other things that quirements that aren’t quite there yet. positions that are critical from a safety may be less risky or more, and is this okay. That’ll be an interesting area, and we’ll standpoint. And that part of program management be looking for inputs on that in the RFI. That is something that will always be a is going to be important in human rating. DICKMAN I think I heard you say that, in the challenge for us. We need to continue to It’s assumed in human rating. In fact, one response to RFI, you’re not restricting the pay very close attention to it because, of the most interesting requirements that responses to the subjects you ask about. when you get to a point where you stop we have in our human-rating document O’CONNOR We’re talking about human rat- listening to your systems, listening to is the one we call failure tolerance. ing, and it’s more than just a set of re- your hardware, and responding appropri- The failure tolerance requirement for quirements. It’s about life-cycle manage- ately, that’s when you allow things like space shuttle was fail-op/fail-safe for the ment of the risk for humans. We need Challenger to happen. orbiter avionics and fail-safe for every- inputs from all these smart people out DICKMAN I’ll read a quote from the same thing else. And there were about 4,000+ there who have the scars and have done Marshall testimony: “NASA should imme- waivers to those two requirements. The this elsewhere. diately identify the number of launch way the shuttle handled their require- DICKMAN The model in the airlines is, you successes that COTS partners will need to ments was they established the require- do all the things to get your type certifi- achieve with the unmanned vehicle in ment, and then they managed the pro- cation for your airplanes, and then they order to demonstrate the required vehi- gram by disciplined waiver process. get passed to somebody else. And the cle reliability for a NASA crewed launch.” “Waiver” doesn’t mean you just blow it operator takes care of it from then on, What is that number? off and decide not to comply. What it unless a change is needed. What I’m O’CONNOR I don’t know. There are various means is you’re not meeting the require- hearing is that that’s not the model for ways to look at these flight tests. But ment, but you’re going to meet the intent commercial human spaceflight and, to there’s the other aspect that asks, how do of the requirement or get to a reasonable some lesser extent, for nonhuman space- we actually get comfortable enough to risk posture by doing something different flight. The builder, the operator is the say, “Okay, we’re ready to put our people than the requirement. That was basically same person. Does that change how into a mission environment on this?” You how we managed the reliability part from Boeing looks at the process? could have a different threshold for peo- day one. We’re hoping we don’t have to SHAW I think so. Boeing was in the airline ple flying a test flight vs. carrying passen- have a bunch of waiver discussions. business; didn’t continue. It built train gers to the ISS. You wouldn’t necessarily One of the ways that showed up is in cars; didn’t continue. Sooner or later, you say that once we’re ready to do one of the recent version of the human-rating figure out what your core business is and those we’re ready to do them both. requirements. We said the minimum re- try to do well at it. But here, we are talk- But there could be a case where you quirement for failure tolerance is single ing about designer/builder/owner/oper- might want to fly a few more flights on a

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Human rating for future spaceflight

PANELISTS system than just what it takes to satisfy DICKMAN Final thoughts? the certification that it met the technical BLOOMFIELD Bryan mentioned that when Michael Bloomfield, vice requirements.That’s what I was trying to we started to look at the Soyuz they had president, Johnson Space Center Operations, Alliant get at when I said that with Soyuz we put about 60 flights, and then we talked a lot Techsystems a lot of value in the fact they had this about trust. I think that goes back to, how number of demonstrated flights. well do I trust these guys. We have a policy at NASA on the ELV And we talked about the risk trades payload launches that, depending on that need to be made instead of being Ken Bowersox, vice president how much our oversight and insight is, very prescriptive about what the techni- of astronaut safety and we may require higher or lower numbers cal solution is, that the folks running the mission assurance develop- of demonstrated successful flights. program have to show that ability to ment, Space Exploration Technologies If we’ve decided that we’re going to make the risk trades and not get suck- buy a ride on a vehicle, and decided that ered into making the poor judgments, we’re going to be way backed off—we’re which we’re all susceptible to. Frank L. Culbertson Jr., not going to have any kind of oversight The last point I’d make is, if you look at senior vice president and or insight on it, just maybe a few people Ares, it is built on known components. deputy general manager watching to see what happens—we’ve For example, the first stage has about of the advanced programs got an example of where you’d have 14 220. The technology on the shuttle has group, Orbital Sciences flights in a row before you’d want to have 220. So there’s a lot of heritage and a lot an oversight/insight model like that. of understanding there. So, there’s a relationship between the O’CONNOR One other thing on the Soyuz George C. Nield, associate oversight/insight model and the number is, they’re also flying Progress, which is administrator for commercial of demonstrated successful launches on a space transportation, FAA very similar to the Soyuz. They can do vehicle. And we’d like to keep that flexi- development work on Progress while bility in play. If, for example, the agency they’re bringing new hardware online or decides that they want to have a real new avionics, and test it there and then backed-off oversight/insight model be- fly it on the shuttle or Soyuz. That gives Bryan O’Connor, chief cause they want to see some demon- them a way to on-ramp changes as well of safety and mission strated flights instead, that should be one as to monitor the success of their systems assurance, NASA of our flexibilities.The more oversight and on a much larger database. the more insight, the less chance there is In terms of how many test flights you you’re going to need to have a question need, it’s like the oversight/insight ques- like that, of flying a few more flights to tion of how prescriptive you really need get comfortable. to be in this situation. It’s hard for us to Ken Reightler, vice president, REIGHTLER With most test programs you NASA programs integration, say “it depends” all the time. Makes us Lockheed Martin have test objectives you want to try to sound like a bunch of lawyers. But a lot of achieve, and you have a pretty good idea times it does depend on what vehicle about how many flights or missions it you’re talking about, what its history is, takes to be able to accomplish those, but what its purpose is. I think that those are always just a good And then it depends on who’s provid- Brewster H. Shaw Jr., plan to start with. You have to adjust that ing it; what’s the culture of the company, vice president of business plan and add or modify flights as you go what’s the quality and competency of the development, Boeing along to be able to accomplish those. leadership in place. That makes a big dif- And sometimes you learn things that you ference in how well you trust each other didn’t expect, so you gain new test ob- and the design that’s coming forward. jectives you have to put into place to be I don’t think you can make it quite that able to understand a particular anomaly. formulaic. Even though we’re trying to George Sowers, vice president of business development, It’s difficult to come up with exactly the achieve certain reliability numbers and United Launch Alliance number of flights you’re going to need to probabilities, there are a lot of nonnumeri- really feel comfortable certifying a vehicle cal factors that enter into how many test for an operational flight. flights you need and what depth of in- O’CONNOR Yes, certainly from a launcher sight and oversight you need to ensure perspective, having a program that’s fly- you’re really ready to go do it. Robert Dickman, moderator, ing unmanned and manned together al- BOWERSOX From the SpaceX perspective, a AIAA executive director lows you to climb up that demonstrator few things that are important in setting liability curve a lot faster. If we started fly- that number are how many unmanned ing humans in 2014, Atlas V launches will flights you’ve had before you get there, be up in the 60s; Delta IV will be the 40s and then just how much work you’ve put or 50s. We’ll be pretty far along. into your crew escape system.

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A ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION

You want a very robust crew escape repeating history, if you will. You know, but not enough market to have indepen- system test program before you add peo- what Richard Feynman said in his minor- dent businesses, so ULA was formed. We ple, but I don’t think you can do enough ity report still sums it up: “For a successful kept the two systems, but we couldn’t to really be comfortable. But all the stud- technology, reality must take precedence maintain two separate companies in ies I’ve seen show you want somewhere over public relations, for nature cannot perpetual competition. So we can have between one and three unmanned tests, be fooled.” two if NASA wants two, but that’ll cost if you can do that. And it still amazes me BOWERSOX One of the reasons I joined more. that, for the space shuttle, we managed SpaceX rather than staying with NASA In the long run, we want to be able to to fly humans on it the very first time. when I decided to retire was I thought attract real commercial business, and I DICKMAN Is there going to be more than that having multiple sources of trans- think having NASA invest in this capability one commercial provider of human portation to LEO was really important for will do that. It’ll lower barriers of entry for launch because of demand? our country. And over the next few years, commercial business if NASA invests and O’CONNOR The Augustine commission as the commercial crew development allows the companies to sell to the com- asked that same question, and thought activity gets going, if we don’t end up mercial guys on the margin. there was a reasonable expectation. with multiple sources, I think we’ve The EELV model was, the government You asked when NASA and the different missed out on an opportunity. was going to buy on the margin to this providers will get a chance to talk. When Even our Russian partners in the ISS robust commercial market. That model we put out this RFI we’re also going to program would say that they’d like to didn’t work. If we do it the other way, try to get with folks in person and get have alternatives to Soyuz. So if you find where NASA needs the capability, is pay- their feedback and talk to them before a problem you’re not pressed. You don’t ing for the capability and then allowing they get into the area where we’re have to worry about abandoning what the commercial market to develop on the doing procurement stuff and have you’re doing, and you have other ways to side, I think that can work. blackouts and all that. We’d like to get people up to accomplish the useful REIGHTLER Human spaceflight is an impor- get in as much talk as we can before work you want to do. tant aspect of our overall space program, all that starts. CULBERTSON Human spaceflight is very certainly one that we hope continues on. There are some restrictions. And we all important for this country. It not only is And human rating is an incredibly impor- know about competition and so on, but an exciting thing to tell kids that they can tant part of making that successful, safe. we’re not quite there yet on this. So the do when they grow up, it’s an exciting Lockheed Martin is a commercial space more we talk about it, the better. thing to do when you do grow up. It’s company. We’ve got a lot of experience NIELD One of my favorite management also a great example of the human spirit in commercial space ventures, some books is The Seven Habits, and one of in this country and our ability to take risks good, some bad, but we’ve learned a lot those is, begin with the end in mind. So but keep pushing the frontiers out. and are trying to apply those lessons. I’d like to see us as a community think I do believe that there will someday de- Whether we can make a commercial go not just about where we are today but velop a very robust market for multiple of this really depends a lot on exactly where we want to be. providers to go to LEO. I’m not sure when. what it is that is expected and the con- Where I would like to see us in the fu- In the immediate future there is just NASA, tractual situation you find yourself in. ture is in a situation where there’s more but we need to be prepared to take ad- SHAW I believe space belongs to everyone. than one provider and more than one vantage of that if that’s the case. And the more people we can get there, customer, and we have a healthy industry If we continue to safely fly people to the better. Over half of our company that is leading the world in terms of its LEO, the markets will develop. I can’t say does commercial fixed-price develop- technical capabilities and robustness how when, but I think continuing to go is ment and sales of high-risk systems. And and its safety and competitiveness. one of the most important goals we have I very much believe we are capable of As a community, what can we do to to have in this country, by whatever means working with the others to provide such help facilitate that and to enable that? As and procurement strategies turn out to be a service to NASA and other users. government players, as industry players, the best for making that happen. But there has to be a reasonable busi- how can we make that happen? It’s hard, The life extension of the ISS will be an ness case with acceptable risk to Boeing’s but that’s what we ought to try to do. important next step to continue to give bottom line and reputation before we BLOOMFIELD We can fly safely now in air- us a reason to fly people in space, but can enter into this kind of agreement. lines because when there was an acci- there are other reasons, too, and I hope DICKMAN Well, AIAA doesn’t have a posi- dent we investigated what went wrong we don’t give up on those. tion on the issues at hand, but I don’t and then tried to fix it.That’s where NASA SOWERS I agree. In the short term, NASA is think there’s anyone at this table who went with the Constellation architecture. the market, and NASA’s market is really doesn’t believe the companies involved It was built out of the CAIB, making crew one turnover or six astronauts or six can deliver a safe human ability to get to safety number one, and then planning on crewmembers every six months. A mar- LEO. This can be done. This is something an ability to fly in a different vehicle. Com- ket like that is probably not enough to the U.S. can do. The companies involved ponents on Ares V can be transferred to sustain competition. It could sustain two are good enough, and NASA can bring Ares I. providers if NASA is willing to pay extra this together, and FAA can provide an I think that’s an important way to keep to have two, kind of EELV all over again. infrastructure that they can make this moving forward so that we don’t keep We had two competitors in the EELV, work. Thank you all for participating.

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After a year of refurbishing,Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel Number 9 in White Oak,Md., has emerged from the edge of extinction,serving again as the nation’s premier facility for hypersonic testing.It continues a legacy that began,shrouded in mystery, duringWW II and lives on today,ensuring that the workforce of the future will be trained in the use of this vital resource and others like it.

Tunnel 9: A national treasure reborn

idden in a wooded campus in White Oak, Md., just a few miles north of the Washington, D.C., beltway, the nation’s premier high-speed wind tunnel has just emerged from a year-long period of refurbishing andH upgrades. Few even know of its existence. Yet the tunnel, nestled in the middle of the 712-acre former site of the Naval Surface Warfare Center, has been a part of aerospace history for almost 35 years, contributing to nearly every significant U.S. high-speed flight program since the late 1970s. Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel Number 9, or Tunnel 9 to its operators and customers, is capable of reproducing flight conditions in excess of Mach 14, well into the regime generally identified as hypersonic—more than five times the speed of sound. Although several other facilities around the world can reach these flow speeds, Tunnel 9 can produce realistic flight conditions for as long as 15 seconds. That may not seem like much, but it is effectively “forever” in the world of hypersonic flow. In contrast, the vast majority of high-speed wind tunnels provide test times on the order of just a few thousandths of a second. The office corridors of Tunnel 9 are replete with photographs of its many successes, including early tests of the space shuttle, various missile defense concepts, and most recently the USAF/DARPA Hypersonic Test Vehicle (HTV-2) maneuvering reentry craft, which launched on April 22 of this year but unfortunately was lost. This entire complex was almost abandoned, a victim of the Base Realignment and Closure process of the by Mark Lewis Willis Young Professor, mid-1990s. That it has survived and prospered as a vital national test asset University of Maryland is a tribute to the foresight of its managers and sponsors. It also serves as

A full-scale flight-quality seeker window was tested for the Missile Defense Agency in the Tunnel 9 Mach 7 thermostructural leg to assess the performance and survivability of optical windows under high heating loads.

continuing proof of the value of high-fidelity every spacecraft that has reentered Earth’s at- ground test facilities. mosphere, and every probe penetrating another planet’s atmosphere, has flown at hy- Learning to fly hypersonically personic speeds. All have been decelerating The evolving role of Tunnel 9 has reflected craft, slowing down as a result of drag as they changes in the way ground test facilities are enter the atmosphere. In contrast, some of to- used in developing flight programs. At a time day’s most exciting hypersonic projects are when some believe that wind tunnels are des- exploring high-speed cruisers and accelera- tined to be replaced entirely by computational tors—craft that can fly through the atmo- simulations, this facility and others of its kind sphere, either as gliders or under their own continue to provide significant value, and are power, for prolonged periods of time. key players in the international quest for high- The range of applications for hypersonic speed flight. (See “Wind tunnels: Don’t count craft could profoundly affect military technol- them out,” April, page 38.) ogy, transportation, and civilian access to Indeed, the most recent efforts to bring space. Hypersonic cruise missiles could cover the tunnel into the 21st century have come hundreds of miles in a matter of minutes. Hy- during what will be a banner year for hyper- personic reconnaissance aircraft could be de- sonics, culminating in several flight programs ployed for rapid sensing in remote areas, pos- that would not have been successful without sibly filling in for absent space monitoring ground test. systems, or providing a closer look at items of Hypersonic flight is not new; the first interest around the globe. And air-breathing man-made hypersonic object flew on Febru- space launchers, using advanced engines to ary 24, 1949, when a WAC Corporal sound- accelerate in the atmosphere on their way to ing rocket was lofted atop a captured German orbit, offer the ultimate promise of airplane- V-2 missile at White Sands. Since that time, like operations into space.

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Despite these promises, efforts to build Test before flight and fly a hypersonic craft have been mixed at With so many flight programs in progress, it is best. Billions of dollars have been spent on tempting to question the need for hypersonic failed programs, ranging from the original ground test facilities. Indeed, in the days of the 1960s AeroSpace Plane to DARPA’s recent NASP program, engineers were predicting Blackswift, leading some to question whether that computational tools would soon replace hypersonics will ever be practical. Post- all ground testing, and hypersonic tunnels mortem analyses usually conclude that the could all be mothballed. In fact, the reverse programs have been too ambitious, linking has proven to be true. unrealistic goals to insufficient funds. The Program experience has shown more poster child for this is the X-30 National Aero- than ever the importance of testing before Space Plane, a mid-to-late-1980s program flight. Some basic issues, such as unsteady that was to provide single-stage-to-orbit air- shock phenomena, heating rates associated plane-like flight. with boundary-layer transition, and the effects Regardless of past failures, this is an ex- of surface gaps and bumps on the flow, are citing time in hypersonics. A wide spectrum of still poorly understood, and only experimental flight programs and research activities that will measurements will be directly revealing. In at be filling the gaps in our hypersonics knowl- least one recent case, ground test has proven edge is currently in progress in the U.S. The essential to determining the thermal protec- USAF X-51 program is leading the way this tion required for a maneuvering reentry test, year in flight testing of a Mach-6-class missile- revealing details computational simulations type cruiser powered by conventional jet fuel. had completely missed. The Navy’s HyFly program is similarly devel- Tunnel 9 is unique in hypersonic ground oping hypersonic missile capabilities, and al- testing. It uses a “blowdown” design, where though it suffered two flight test failures (unre- flow is literally blown from a high-pressure lated to their hypersonic technologies), hopes supply into a vacuum. This approach can pro- are high for eventual success. vide test times long enough to see unsteady Even the fundamental research commu- effects and other complicated phenomena This waverider was collaboratively nity is having a banner year, with the joint that may not be captured in shorter duration developed by the University of Maryland, Boeing, and Tunnel 9. U.S.-Australia HIFiRE program, aimed at de- facilities. Long test times also allow a model to The configuration was the first livering a series of hypersonic flight experi- be moved during the course of a single run, so attempt to test a waverider shape ments, and the robust basic research efforts a wide range of angles of attack can be stud- designed for good aerodynamics ied in a single experiment. The tunnel also has and good volume and packing, jointly sponsored by the Air Force Office of with realistic leading-edge blunt- Scientific Research and NASA. two separate test sections that can be rolled in ness to survive high heat loads. and out, and varying the nozzles enables simulation of flight conditions at Mach 7, 8, and 10, in addition to 14. Of course, there are always engineering tradeoffs, and the blowdown approach has its challenges compared to shorter duration facilities. Because energy is conserved, as the gas in a blowdown tunnel accelerates through the nozzle, its temperature and pressure drop. By the time it reaches Mach 14, the temperature will have dropped by a factor of 40, and pressure will have decreased by a factor of 400,000. This means the gas must start at extremely high pressures and temperatures or it will condense as it expands in the tunnel. Much of Tunnel 9’s technology, therefore, involves the storage of gas at extremely high pressures and temperatures, so that by the time it reaches a model there is still a good match to realistic flight conditions. This principle depends on having an enormous high-pressure gas reservoir. Buried under the ground at the White Oak campus is a gas supply farm where nitrogen is com-

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Building on a legacy This state-of-the-art tunnel has a history that began with the end of advances as swept wings for high-speed flight. This and other discov- WW II, when Allied forces were evaluating German advances in aero- eries convinced observers that the U.S. needed its own testing and nautics. Theodore von Kármán, one of the top aerodynamicists of the evaluation centers, especially for the soon-to-be-separate USAF. 20th century, led a delegation to postwar Europe to identify critical A bidding war began among the Allies for captured facilities German researchers and facilities. Working under the instructions of and equipment and for the scientists who built and ran them. Under Gen. Henry (Hap) Arnold, head of the Army Air Corps, von Kármán Project Paperclip, key individuals in the German military research es- found an aeronautics research and testing complex hidden in a forest tablishment were brought to the U.S. Among the facilities found on the outskirts of Braunschweig. were supersonic wind tunnels that Wernher von Braun’s team had As von Kármán later explained, the entire complex had been un- used in the development of the V-2 missile. The tunnels were crated known to the allies during the war. The facility, he said, “was discov- up for transport to the U.S. They found their way to what was then ered only when the American Army moved into the area. We heard the newly constructed Naval Ordnance Laboratory at White Oak, that it was a fantastic place where Germany’s ultimate secret weap- Md., but the exact details of how they got there are sketchy. Oral ons were being developed. We went there immediately. There was history has it that the tunnels were originally supposed to be sent to an airfield which was concealed by means of cover of ash, so it the Army, but the Navy wanted them instead. How they wound up would not present a smooth surface from the air….The whole thing in the hands of the Navy is not entirely clear—stories are still told of was incredible. Over a thousand people worked there, yet not a Navy personnel sneaking into the complex and carrying out crates whisper of this institute had reached the ears of the Allies.” under cover of darkness. But when the parts arrived at White Oak Fifty-six buildings were identified in the complex, all below tree they were stamped with Army Air Corps labels. Those tunnels be- level and widely spaced so as to be camouflaged. Nearly 3 million came the original “Tunnel 1” and “Tunnel 2,” establishing the num- documents were recovered, including details on such significant bering system that has culminated in “Tunnel 9.” About a dozen German engineers also came to White Oak. Today, parts of the original Tunnel 1 from Peenemünde can be seen on display in the lobby of the complex. Before it was decommis- sioned, the tunnel was heavily modified, but the test chamber door and an original model of a V-2 derivative rocket still survive as a reminder of Tunnel 9’s heritage. In the two decades following WW II, the laboratory at White Oak added a series of high-speed tunnels, designated 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 (5 was conceived but not built) and finally a modified 8A. They had ever-increasing capabilities, and each played an important role in the development of supersonic flight, both into the atmosphere and beyond. In the early 1960s there was growing recognition that the Navy Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Program needed a new facility for the testing of reentry vehicles, and Tunnel 9 was born.

pressed to pressures that are over 1,900 smoothly and precisely. Measurement tech- times greater than normal atmospheric pres- niques including advanced flow visualization, sure; that gas is subsequently heated to tem- pressure sensors, temperature sensors, and peratures close to 3,500 F on its way through newly developed temperature-sensitive paints the tunnel and into the test section. Because capture the flow physics. the heaters cannot survive in oxygen, Tunnel 9 must use only nitrogen, meaning that it can- A fast start…and almost a sudden halt not simulate combustion conditions. Authorized by Congress in 1966, first run with At the beginning of a test, a 72-ft-diam. cold flow in late 1973, and finally calibrated by vacuum tank is pumped down at one end of mid-1975, Tunnel 9 was fully operational by the facility, and the high-pressure storage the nation’s bicentennial. Within two years of tanks are heated at the other. Initially, a set of its opening, the tunnel had completed nearly metal diaphragms is ruptured by gas pressure 300 test runs, in support of all three armed and the high-temperature compressed nitro- services and NASA, in particular the develop- gen races down a 40-ft-long nozzle toward a ment of the space shuttle. The start of the 5-ft-diam. test cell, then out to the vacuum Strategic Defense Initiative under President sphere. The test cell has a unique model Ronald Reagan in the early 1980s saw a new mount that can pitch through a range of an- flurry of activity at the facility, where develop- gles, allowing for wide sweep of data in a sin- ment of optical windows for high-altitude in- gle run. The pitching mechanism moves at a terceptors was a top priority. At White Oak, rate of 80 deg/sec, carrying heavy models part of the renamed Naval Surface Warfare

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A new, and vital, mission fect unless Congress were to specifically dis- Perhaps as important as finding a new home with the Air Force, Tunnel 9 found a approve the list by joint resolution. When the new mission as a result of the BRAC process in 1997. Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), commission placed the entire Navy installa- who was instrumental in saving the tunnel, offered an important charge to the tion at White Oak on its list of recommended facility and its staff: Become more closely connected with engineering education, closings, Tunnel 9’s fate was all but sealed. especially reaching out to the nearby University of Maryland campus. This is a But recognizing its unique capabilities and responsibility that the tunnel staff has taken very seriously, with extremely positive its importance to the entire nation, DOD lead- results. ership transferred ownership of Tunnel 9 and Almost immediately after Tunnel 9 became an Air Force facility, its staff began its support facilities to the Air Force, under an internship and co-op program with the University of Maryland. Students at the auspices of the Arnold Engineering Devel- both the undergraduate and graduate levels have since been involved in nearly opment Center (AEDC) in Tullahoma, Tenn. every major project at the tunnel. Today, students work directly on tests, help instrument models, work out new capabilities, and use available tunnel results to AEDC already operated a list of other world- provide direct comparison to theory and computational solutions. Among the suc- class hypersonic facilities, each with a unique cess stories is one set of capabilities, including materials testing of the first stu- and high-speed propulsion applications. dents in this pro- On October 1, 1997, Tunnel 9 officially gram, Inna Kurits, became a part of the USAF; 40 acres are who graduated maintained inside the former Naval Surface with a master’s Warfare campus for the tunnel and its sup- degree working port. The rest of the site is managed by the at the tunnel and General Services Administration for the Food is now employed and Drug Administration. there as an engineer. And the Rebuilt for a new generation Tunnel 9 profes- Tunnel 9 received an initial facelift when the sionals have plans Air Force took ownership, but after 10 years to expand these it was time for further improvements. Planned student opportunities, with the help of the Air Force Research Laboratory. FDA construction around the tunnel offered In part, the motivation for doing so is nothing less than to preserve the very the perfect hiatus for a complete upgrade, in- future of ground testing. There is a genuine concern about training the next gen- cluding the installation of a state-of-the-art dig- eration of tunnel engineers. The average age of the contractor workforce at ital control room to replace the old 1970s-era AEDC is nearly 50, and the average time of service approximately 17 years. At analog system. With a year to plan, engineers Tunnel 9, all but seven of the total 35 employees have worked there less than 20 readied several experiments and greatly im- years, and most will be eligible for retirement within the next decade. To keep the tunnel operating into the future, and to preserve and develop other ground proved instrumentation capabilities in prepa- test facilities, AEDC’s leadership recognizes the need for fresh blood. ration for the tunnel’s return to service. March Upgrading the Tunnel 9 facility has confirmed its relevance to the future of of this year saw the first runs with the new hypersonic flight. Focusing on student involvement, research, and education has control room and instrumentation, producing ensured that it will have the skilled workforce to use this facility, and others like significant new results. it, for many years to come. In another new approach, the tunnel’s technical director, John Lafferty, has successfully coordinated research efforts at Tunnel 9, AFOSR, and universities to perform several Center, Tunnel 9 was the centerpiece of a experiments simultaneously in the tunnel’s Navy operation that covered the range of hy- vast test section. “By piggy-backing multiple personic flight technologies. experiments we can maximize the usefulness Then the 1995 Base Realignment and of the unique conditions provided during each Closure (BRAC) Commission set its sights on run; this is critical to providing researchers the the entire Navy organization at White Oak. needed access. Certain challenges in hyper- Tunnel 9 was almost shut down. sonics cannot make significant advances with- The BRAC process was created to reduce out access to the salient physics that can be the number of military installations in the provided by a facility like Tunnel 9,” says Laf- post-Vietnam era. Recognizing that each mili- ferty. That approach has already proven ex- tary base would have its own constituents tremely successful. (who could thus fight any closure recommen- The recent upgrades also reflect a change dation), the BRAC Commission was estab- in the way Tunnel 9 intends to do business in lished to recommend installations that might the future. Says Dan Marren, AEDC site di- be closed or combined with similar facilities; rector, “Success here will require building their recommendations were set to go into ef- partnerships with science and technology ac-

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A series of aerothermal and tivities, inventing test techniques and methods aerodynamic stability tests tuned to obtaining important hard-to-measure of the space shuttle were quantities and providing data in a format that completed in Tunnel 9 in the late 1970s. feeds the weaknesses in our computational models.” Reflecting the changing nature of ground tests, future tunnel runs will not be iso- lated data-gathering exercises, conducted only as a precursor to flight. Rather, they will be linked to computation, and some will be done as follow-ups to flight tests. Marren points out that the first shake- down tests were also an opportunity to include partners in academia, other Air Force organizations, NASA and the Dept. of En- ergy. That is very much in keeping with the facility’s new operating philosophy, integrating more research opportunities into the test and evaluation function of the tunnel. One researcher who appreciates what Tunnel 9 can do for the research community is Pino Martin, a professor at the University of Reynolds number flow conditions in the nation. Maryland and one of the world’s foremost au- Using and extending experimental data from thorities on computational simulation of hy- Tunnel 9 will allow for the development and personic flows. As Martin explains, “Tunnel 9 validation of new computational tools well be- provides the widest range of Mach number and yond the current state of the art.”

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25 Years Ago, July 1985 July 8 The second experimental U.S. July 19 As part of its Teacher in Space project, NASA selects Concord, N.H., nuclear rocket reactor teacher Sharon Christa McAuliffe to become the first private citizen passenger in in the Project Rover the history of spaceflight. Aviation History Facts, Centennial of Flight Web site. nuclear rocket program, Kiwi-A Prime, is success- 50 Years Ago, July 1960 fully tested at full power at Jackass Flats, Nev. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics July 1 The George C. Marshall Space Flight Center officially opens at Huntsville, and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 125. Ala., with Wernher von Braun as its director. Von Braun, who was technical director for the development of the V-2 rocket at Peenemünde in Germany before July 11 Hughes Aircraft, the Space and during WWII, also headed a core group from his V-2 team after the war at Technology Laboratory, North Fort Bliss, Texas, and later at the Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, where the group American Aviation, and McDonnell developed the Redstone and Jupiter missiles. He now brings the same team to Aircraft contract with NASA to Marshall, where they subsequently contribute to the development of the Saturn undertake feasibility studies for a launch vehicles that take the first men to the Moon under Project Apollo. E. manned lunar soft-landing spacecraft. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 125. Later this month, at the agency’s Industry Conference in Washington, July 1 An Air Force RB-47H Stratojet is shot down by a Soviet MiG-19 in D.C., Project Apollo is announced; inter-national airspace over the Barents Sea near the Russian coast. Four of the NASA’s Abe Silverstein suggests the crew are killed, two are captured by the Soviets but are later released in 1961. name to continue the use of mythical The Aeroplane, Aug. 5, 1960, p. 151. gods for naming manned space vehicles. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics July 1 The first complete all-solid-fuel four-stage Scout launch vehicle for boosting and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 125: light payloads is test fired at NASA‘s Wallops Island facility. The fourth stage fails D. Baker, Spaceflight and Rocketry: to separate, although measurements are taken at 1,007 mi. A Chronology, p. 105. D. Baker, Spaceflight and Rocketry: A Chronology, p. 104. Titan I July 17 British radar pioneer Air July 1 The attempt to test fire the first operational version of the Titan I ICBM at Marshal Sir Raymond Hart dies at 61. Cape Canaveral downrange, fails. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, He was the first RAF officer to work 1915-60, p. 125. with Robert Watson-Watt, considered the inventor of radar. Hart is also July 1 After taking 22,952 photos of Earth’s cloud cover, the world’s first known for a remarkable air victory weather satellite, Tiros I, ceases transmitting useful pictures because of an during WW I, and for pioneering electronics failure. The Aeroplane, July 15, 1960, p. 90. ground control interception stations during WW II. The Aeroplane, July 29, July 4 Max Conrad, flying a Piper Comanche, sets a new world‘s distance record 1960, p. 121. for this class of light planes in a closed circuit of 6,921 mi. from Minneapolis to Chicago to Des Moines in 60 hr. This doubles the previous record. The Aeroplane, July 19-26 An Army Bell HU-1 July 22, 1960, p. 98; The 1961 Aerospace Year Book, p. 444. Iroquois helicopter beats three Russian-held international rotary-wing July 5 The Boeing 720, which can carry 165 passengers, begins commercial records during closed-circuit races. service on United Air Lines’ Chicago- The flights, piloted by Col. Jack to-Denver route. D. Baker, Flight and Marinelli, with Maj. G.J. Boyle and Flying, p. 372. Chief Warrant Officer C.V. Turvey,

July 6 The largest nonrigid U.S. airship, a 403-ft craft used by the Navy’s Early Warning Radar Squadron, is lost at sea off the New Jersey coast. The Aeroplane, July 15, 1960, p. 85.

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An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H.Winter, Ret. and Robert van der Linden National Air and Space Museum

include distance and speed records 75 Years Ago, July 1935 previously held by a Russian Mi-1. The Aeroplane, Aug. 12, 1960, p. 176. July 11 Laura Ingalls pilots her Pratt & Whitney Wasp-powered Lockheed Orion, the Auto-da-Fe, from Floyd Bennett Field in New July 20 For the first time, a Polaris York to Burbank, Calif., in 18 hr 19.5 min, becoming the first IRBM is test launched from a woman to fly the East-West transcontinental route nonstop. sub-marine, the nuclear-powered Aero Digest, August 1935, p. 68. George Washington. The firing takes place while the submarine is cruising July 13 The new Leicester Municipal Airport opens about 30 mi. off the coast of Cape in England. The ceremony concludes with an aerial competition Canaveral, at a depth of about 90 ft. featuring a solo flight by the Duchess of Bedford. With over The missile is shot out of the launching 200 hr in her log books, she is known as the “grand old lady of tube by compressed air, its motor aviation.“ RAF aircraft also fly overhead. Flight, July 18, 1935, automatically igniting as it clears pp. 72-74. the water. It reaches 1,100 mi. downrange, north of Puerto Rico. July 13 The largest mass flight of gliders, 20 in all, sets a U.S. record on the final The Aeroplane, July 29, 1960, p. 220. day of the Sixth Annual National Soaring Contest at Elmira, N.Y. On the same day, new U.S. gliding records for women are set by Allaire C. duPont, who July 22 NASA’s Iris solid-fuel sounding reaches an altitude of 3,600 ft for 5 hr 31 min. Aero Digest, August 1935, p. 68. rocket is successfully launched for the first time. Although built by Atlantic July 16-17 Mario Stoppani of Italy, with Capt. Casimiro Babbi and Pilot Officer Research for the Naval Research Piaggio-d’Ascanio, break the world’s record for a nonstop flight in a seaplane when Laboratory, the Iris became a NASA they fly 3,104 mi. from Monfalcone, program when the lab’s rocket group Trieste, to Berbera, British Somaliland, was transferred to the agency E. Emme, in 24 hr 55 min. They fly a Cant Z.501 ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, monoplane with a 750-hp Isotta 1915-60, p. 125. Fraschini engine. The previous record was 2,658 mi. The Aeroplane, July 28 A successful test firing of the July 24, 1935. first stage of the solid-fuel Caleb rocket, following its release from a McDonnell July 17 A Martin M-130 flying boat lifts a record 24,000 lb on a flight from F4D-1 Skyray, takes place off the Middle River, Md., during Pan American Airways tests. The aircraft carries the California coast. The ultimate aim of load to a height of 18,200 ft. Aero Digest, August 1935, p. 68. the effort, known as Project Hi-Hoe, is to place an air-launched satellite in July 20-21 The winner of La Coupe Armand Esders, considered the French Aero orbit. But only one of the Hi-Hoe Club’s Grand Prix, is Comte de Chateaubrun, who flies his Percival Mew Gull with flights is a French 180-hp Regnier motor at an average speed of 188 mph over a 520-mi. successful, course between Deauville and Cannes. The race is limited to machines that have when a a total cylinder capacity of not more than 8 liters. The Aeroplane, July 24, 1935, two-stage p. 132. Caleb reaches 726 mi. on July 26, 1962. D. Baker, Spaceflight and And During July 1935 Rocketry: A Chronology, p. 105. —Armstrong Siddeley Development Co. and Hawker Aircraft merge to form July 29 The two-stage Thor-Agena Hawker Siddeley Aircraft of Great Britain. Pioneer British aircraft designer T.O.M. fails to orbit the Discoverer XII Sopwith is named chairman of the new company. Flight, July 11, 1935, p. 59. reconnaissance satellite at Vandenberg AFB, Calif. The plan had been to 100 Years Ago, July 1910 recover the Discoverer capsule ejected on its 17th orbit. The Aeroplane, July July 9 Walter Brookins becomes the first person to fly a mile high, reaching an 8, 1960, p. 31. altitude of 6,175 ft in a Wright biplane and winning a prize of $5,000.

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25 Years Ago, August 1985 Aug. 10 Discoverer XIII is successfully placed in a polar orbit. The following day, the craft’s 85-lb instrumented capsule is recovered from the Pacific Ocean Aug. 2 Germany’s Messerschmitt- off Hawaii, becoming the first man-made object recovered from space and the Bolkow-Blohm, Italy’s Aeritalia, and first successful U.S. photo reconnaissance satellite. D. Baker, Flight and Flying, British Aerospace agree on joint p. 372. development of the European Fighter Aug. 10 The first operational configuration of the Titan ICBM is flown 5,000 mi. Aircraft, intended to enter service downrange from Cape Canaveral, Fla. This is the first completely successful in the mid-1990s. B. Gunston, ed., launch of the Mark I version of the missile. The Aerospace Year Book, Aviation Year by Year, p. 806. 1961, p. 445. 50 Years Ago, August 1960 Aug. 12 The transonic X-15 rocket research aircraft (No. 1) sets Aug. 2 A Naval Research Lab another new altitude record when pilot Ivan Kincheloe takes it up Aerobee sounding rocket is to 136,500 ft. D. Baker, Flight and Flying, p. 372. launched from the White Sands Aug. 12 Echo 1, a 100-ft-diam Proving Grounds, N.M., and aluminized Mylar-plastic balloon attains a 90-mi. altitude, where satellite, is launched by a its instruments measure the Ivan Kincheloe Thor-Delta and becomes the first ultraviolet spectrum of the Sun. E. passive communications satellite. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and It reflects a radio message from Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 125. President Eisenhower that is broadcast across the country. Visible to the naked eye, Echo 1 is also Aug. 4 The North American X-15 the largest satellite launched to date. E. Emme, (No. 1) rocket research airplane, flown ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915-60, by NASA test pilot Joseph Walker, sets pp. 125-126. an unofficial new world‘s speed record of 2,196 mph, although the aircraft Aug. 16 Capt. Joseph W. Kittinger Jr., USAF, is safely uses its Interim rocket engines, a pair parachuted from the Excelsior III stratospheric balloon at of 8,000-lb thrust XLR-11 rocket about 103,000 ft above the New Mexico desert. He falls engines. The engine designed for the for 17 mi. before his chute is deployed at 17,500 ft, a new plane, the 59,000-lb-thrust XLR-99, is parachute record. This is also the highest manned balloon still under development but will be ascent, the highest ascent in an open gondola, and the used in later flights of the X-15. The longest free fall. Kittinger’s total descent time is 13 min 8 Aeroplane, Aug. 12, 1960, p. 175; sec. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics D. Baker, Flight and Flying, p. 372. and Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 125.

Aug. 5 NASA and DOD announce Aug. 17 A specially equipped the settlement of a patent suit Russian Il-14 aircraft departs from initiated in 1951 by the Guggenheim Leningrad for the Arctic coast of Foundation and the estate of the late the USSR on the Aerometeorological U.S. rocket pioneer Robert H. Goddard Expedition headed by A.I. Voskredensky, against the U.S. government for under the support of the Arctic and Antarctic possible prior infringement of his Institute. The six-week expedition is to make weather-gathering data reconnaissance work. Goddard patented many basic flights to high latitudes for the benefit of ships sailing the northern sea route. improvements in rockets before The Aeroplane, Sept. 9, 1960, p. 339. his death in 1945. The settlement is for $1 million, of which the Aug. 19 U.S. pilot Francis Gary Powers is sentenced USAF is to pay $750,000, in a Moscow trial to 10 years’ imprisonment for the Army $125,000, NASA espionage conducted while flying over Soviet territory $100,000, and the Navy in his U-2. (The plane was shot down by a Soviet $10,000. E. Emme, ed., surface-to-air SA-2 missile on May 1, but Powers Aeronautics and Astronautics, successfully parachuted to a safe landing.) He is 1915-60, p. 125. released in 1962. Flight, Aug. 26, 1960, p. 288.

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Aug. 20 The dogs Strelka and Belka are successfully recovered from the 4,600-lb carburetor icing. Post had earned orbiting Sputnik V by the Soviet Union. The satellite was launched on the previous worldwide fame as an aviator, day by a Vostok booster from the Baikonur Cosmodrome up to an apogee of 210 particularly for round-the-world flights mi. and a perigee of 190 mi. These are the first terrestrial creatures to go into made in the Lockheed Vega Winnie orbit and return alive, paving the way for the first human orbital flight less than Mae in 1931 and 1933. The eight months later, when Vostok 1 carries Yuri Gagarin. The Aeroplane, Sept. 16, Aeroplane, Aug. 21, 1935, p. 228. 1960, p. 396; D. Baker, Spacefight and Rocketry, p. 106. Aug. 25 The American Rocket Society Aug. 26 Construction on the world‘s largest radio telescope begins at Arecibo, (ARS) begins its third series of static Puerto Rico. Cornell University is the prime contractor. The huge dish is capable rocket tests on ARS Rocket Test Stand of bouncing signals off Venus, Mars, and Jupiter. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and No. 2. The society abandoned its Astronautics, 1915-60, p. 125. flight rocket program because of high Aug. 28 Famed British pilot James Ira “Taffy” Jones costs and believes that more can be dies. Known for downing some 28 enemy aircraft learned from close observations on and three balloons during WW I, Jones is also said the static stand. F. Winter, Prelude to to have survived 28 crashes during the war. The the Space Age: The Rocket Aeroplane, Sept. 9, 1960, p. 339. Societies, 1924-1940. Aug. 29 Distinguished British aviatrix Lady Bailey Aug. 31 Maryse dies at 70. She learned to fly in 1926 and became Hilsz wins the Coupe the second woman to get an “A” license. She made Helene Boucher in a a name for herself in air racing and in 1927 set a race from Paris British altitude record of 17,283 ft for light airplanes. to Cannes in a She was the first woman to fly across the Irish Sea but supercharged Gnome- is best remembered for her 1928 flight from Croydon, Rhone K.14-powered England, to Cape Town, South Africa, a distance of Breguet 27-4. The race is 8,000 mi., and back in a Standard De Havilland Moth. open to women pilots of all nations. The Aeroplane, Sept. 9, 1960, p. 340. Hilsz’s speed is 172.3 mph. Second is 75 Years Ago, August 1935 Claire Roman at 155.8 mph in a modified Maillet. The Aeroplane, Aug. 4 Two Soviet balloonists, Boris Romanoff and Andre Babrishkin, claim a Sept. 4, 1935, p. 307. world’s record for flight duration. They remain aloft for 56 hr and cover 350 mi. Thomas W. Settle and Charles W. Kendall of the U.S. Navy held the previous 100 Years Ago, August 1910 record of 51 hr. Aero Digest, September 1935, p. 62. Aug. 10 Maurice Arnoux beats his own speed record for a land machine over a course of 62 mi., reaching 296 mph in a Caudron C-460. His previous record was 292 mph. The Aeroplane, Aug. 14, 1935, p. 216. Aug. 12 German aviator Elly Beinhorn makes the first nonstop flight from Germany to Turkey. She flies from Gleiwitz to Constantinople and back to Berlin in 14 hr 29 min in a Taifun-type Messerschmitt Bf. 108. The flying distance from Gleiwitz to Constantinople is 775 mi.; from there to Berlin is another 1,025 mi. The Aeroplane, Aug. 21, 1935, p. 227. Aug. 15 Will Rogers, American humorist and philosopher, is killed while flying as a passenger with Aug. 27 For the first time, radio Wiley Post in Alaska, on the second stage of their signals are transmitted between the vacation. The first stage covered 1,000 mi. from ground and an airplane in flight Seattle to Juneau. Their aircraft is a heavily modified when James A.D. McCurdy uses an Lockheed Orion with Lockheed Sirius wings. The H.M. Horton radio while flying a plane, made dangerously nose-heavy by the addition Curtiss at Sheepshead Bay, N.Y. of floats, crashes from low altitude because of C. Gibbs-Smith, Aviation, p. 158.

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THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE G COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

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AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2010 53 AA_JUL2010_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 6/21/10 3:31 PM Page 4

August is for Aerospace

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AIAA has created a new task force to assist in the formulation of a national road map for the U.S. to address investments in the Earth-observing industry to adequately inform future climate change debates and decisions. Composed of leading experts on policy and climate-monitoring technology from within AIAA and in collaboration with other organizations, the task force is developing a strategy to come up with recommendations to help reach this goal.

For more information, contact Craig Day at 703.264.3849 or [email protected].

AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2010 55 AA_JUL2010_COPP.qxd:Layout 1 6/21/10 3:31 PM Page 6

Michelle needed Luckily, Alb erto to ok CPR in September. a CPR course i n Jun e.

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56 AEROSPACE AMERICA/JULY-AUGUST 2010