Origins of 21St Century Space Travel

O RIGINS of ORIGINS of 21st-Century Space Travel ASNER A History of NASA’s Decadal Planning Team and the Vision for & GARBER Space Exploration, 1999–2004 Glen R. Asner Stephen J. Garber ORIGINS of 21st-Century Space Travel A History of NASA’s Decadal Planning Team and the Vision for Space Exploration, 1999–2004 The Columbia Space Shuttle accident on 1 February 2003 presented the George W. Bush administration with difficult choices. Could NASA safely resume Shuttle flights to the International Space Station? If so, for how long? With two highly visible Shuttle trag- edies and only three operational vehicles remaining, administration officials concluded on the day of the accident that major decisions about the space program could be delayed no longer. NASA had been supporting studies and honing plans for several years in preparation for an opportu- nity to propose a new mission for the space program. As early as April 1999, NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin had established the Decadal Planning Team (DPT) to provide a forum for future Agency leaders to begin considering goals more ambitious than send- ing humans on missions to near-Earth destinations and robotic spacecraft to far-off destinations, with no relation between the two. Goldin charged DPT with devising a long-term strategy that would inte- grate the entire range of the Agency’s capabilities, in science and engineering, robotic and human spaceflight, to reach destinations beyond low-Earth orbit. When the Bush administration initiated inter- agency discussions in 2003 to consider a new spaceflight strategy, NASA was prepared with technical and policy options, as well as a team of individ- uals who had spent years preparing for the moment. Although elements of the policy that President Bush announced at NASA Headquarters in January 2004, the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE), differed from the plans developed by DPT and its successor, the NASA Exploration Team (NEXT), the benefits of preparation were unmistakable. continued on back flap continued from front flap From the moment President Bush announced the VSE, NASA stood ready to implement it. Key decisions, such as setting a termination date for Shuttle flights and initiating the development of technologies for deep space exploration, heralded a paradigm shift, allowing both NASA and the U.S. space community to move beyond the infrastructure, technologies, and institutional arrangements that had sustained low-Earth orbit operations for more than two decades. This book provides a detailed historical account of the plans, debates, and decisions that opened the way for a new generation of spaceflight at the start of the 21st century. ABOUT THE AUTHORS GLEN R. ASNER is the Deputy Chief Historian for the Historical Office, Office of th e Se cretary of Defense (OSD), and general editor of the five-volume series History of Acquisition in the Department of Defense. Prior to joining the OSD Historical Office in 2008, Dr. Asner worked as a historian in the NASA Headquarters History Office and as the Executive Secretary for the International Space Station Advisory Committee. He holds a master of science degree and a doctoral degree, both in history and policy, from Carnegie Mellon University, along with a bachelor of arts degree in history from the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He has written on the societal impact of spaceflight, the organization of indus- trial research in the United States, and the history of defense research and development (R&D) and acquisition policy. STEPHEN J. GARBER works in the NASA History Division at Headquarters. He has also served in the Pentagon’s space policy office, the Congressional Research Service, and NASA’s Office of Space Science. He has done research and writing on a vari- ety of history and policy issues related to civilian and national security space policy, such as orbital debris, NASA’s organizational culture, the design of the Space Shuttle, and the Soviet Buran Space Shuttle. He has a bachelor of arts degree in politics from Brandeis University, a master’s degree in public and international affairs from the University of Pittsburgh, and a master’s degree in science and technology studies from Virginia Tech. ORIGINS of 21st-Century Space Travel ORIGINSof 21st-Century Space Travel A History of NASA’s Decadal Planning Team and the Vision for Space Exploration, 1999–2004 Glen R. Asner Stephen J. Garber National Aeronautics and Space Administration Office of Communications NASA History Division Washington, DC 20546 NASA SP-2019-4415 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Asner, Glen R., 1970– | Garber, Stephen J. Title: Origins of 21st-century space travel: a history of NASA’s Decadal Planning Team and the Vision for Space Exploration, 1999–2004 / by Glen R. Asner and Stephen J. Garber. Description: Washington, DC : National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Office of Communications, NASA History Division, [2018] | Series: NASA history series | Series: NASA SP ; 2019-4415 Identifiers: LCCN 2015008003 Subjects: LCSH: Astronautics and state—United States—History—21st century. | Astronautics—United States—History—21st century. | Outer space— Exploration—Planning—History—21st century. | United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Decadal Planning Team. Classification: LCC TL789.8.U5 A77 2018 | DDC 629.40973/090511—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2015008003 ABOUT THE COVER: The background image depicting astronomical phenomena is from iStockPhoto. The image of a spacecraft is an artist’s conception of the Orion capsule, designed to carry humans into deep space, which evolved from the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration. This publication is available as a free download at http://www.nasa.gov/ebooks. ISBN 978-1-62683-046-2 90000 9 781626 830462 v CONTENTS Foreword by William H. Gerstenmaier vii 1 Introduction 1 2 Context and Background of Exploration Planning 9 3 “Sneaking up on Mars”: Origins of the Decadal Planning Team 39 4 Change in Leadership, Continuity in Ideas 83 5 The Columbia Accident and Its Aftermath 99 6 “Bold in Vision and Cheap in Expense” 125 7 Implementing the Vision for Space Exploration 169 8 Conclusion 189 APPENDIX A A Brief Note on Sources and Acknowledgments 199 APPENDIX B Biographical Appendix 203 APPENDIX C Chronology 213 APPENDIX D Key Documents 215 APPENDIX E NASA Organizational Restructuring 221 APPENDIX F Acronyms 225 The NASA History Series 227 Index 239 vii FOREWORD William H. Gerstenmaier NASA ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR HUMAN EXPLORATION AND OPERATIONS MISSION DIRECTORATE “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” —Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1957 LONG-TERM PLANNING is difficult for any organization, but a government organization has a special set of challenges it must deal with. Congress, which appro- priates funding and dictates priorities for executive branch agencies, operates on a one-year financial cycle and a two-year political rhythm. The President, to whom all federal executive agencies are directly accountable, changes adminis- trations once every four years, even when the President is reelected. It is against this backdrop that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) seeks to develop systems that may take 1, 2, or even 10 or 20 years to develop. The technologies of these systems are independent of political whims, but their engineers, program managers, and agency leaders are not. Even the five-year budget planning horizon favored by government analysts is merely half that of the National Academies’ Decadal Survey, which is a key input for any NASA science mission. When developing a mission, it is NASA’s challenge to manage not only the immutable laws of physics, but also the (at times) impenetrable laws of politics that are equally important. The scale of a flagship-class science mission or a human exploration mission simply is not commensurate with the way most government agencies are organized to operate. And yet, for nearly 60 years, NASA has continued to expand the presence of humans in the solar system, both robotically and in person, to become more capable in space than ever before. One reason for NASA’s success has been the hard-won and hard-earned lessons of the past. Experience time and again proved that even the best-laid plans, whose technical and engineering rationale were beyond reproach, could become increasingly vulnerable to charges of inefficiencies and irrelevancies over time. In the realm of human spaceflight, whose ultimate horizon goal is to land humans on the surface of Mars, NASA has embraced a more flexible viii Origins of 21st-Century Space Travel approach than ever before, seeking to execute what is possible in the near term, plan for what is likely in the midterm, and aim for what is desired in the long term. In this way, the program can move forward through technical and political challenges without losing its core mission. Glen R. Asner and Stephen J. Garber’s new volume is a timely, well- documented, and provocative account of exactly how NASA has begun embrac- ing flexibility. The book looks at one series of mission planning efforts, in a specific technical and political context, starting with the NASA Decadal Planning Team (DPT) and culminating in the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration (VSE). Asner and Garber put NASA’s past mission planning efforts into context, look- ing at both the effect of a change in administration on mission planning and the poignant and tragic effects of replanning after the Columbia accident in 2003. This book focuses on the period between 1999 and 2004, showing how the 2004 VSE was substantially shaped by internal NASA planning efforts, and is in many ways a cautionary tale reminding current managers and future leaders not to become complacent in their planning assumptions. Asner and Garber’s book also reflects on what NASA has accomplished through building the International Space Station (ISS) with the help of the Space Shuttle.

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