Wycombe-District-Strategic-Housing

Wycombe District Council Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013

Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Opinion Research Services | The Strand • Swansea • SA1 1AF | 01792 535300 | www.ors.org.uk | [email protected]

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Wycombe District Council Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 Consultation Draft: January 2014

This report of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment has been published as a consultation draft as part of the evidence base for the Council’s emerging Local Plan.

The Council would welcome any comments on the report, which should be sent by email to [email protected] or by post to: Planning Policy Team, Wycombe District Council, Council Offices, Queen Victoria Road, High Wycombe HP11 1BB

Please ensure that all comments are received by 4 April 2014.

Opinion Research Services The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF Jonathan Lee | David Harrison enquiries: 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Contents

Executive Summary ...... viii Summary of key findings and conclusions viii Introduction ...... viii Housing Market Area ...... viii Population and Household projections ...... ix Household projections ...... x Drivers of Population Change ...... x Population Projections ...... xi Economic Activity ...... xii Household Projections ...... xiii Summary of Key Findings ...... xiv Assessed Housing Need...... xv Key Findings: 2011 to 2031 ...... xv Estimate of the Size Mix of Housing Required including Affordable Housing ...... xv Specialist Housing ...... xvi Older People ...... xvi Disabled People ...... xviii Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople ...... xviii The Housing Market ...... xviii Conclusion ...... xix

1. Introducing the Study ...... 1 Background to the project and wider policy context 1 Project Overview ...... 1 What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment? ...... 1 National Policy and Strategy Context ...... 2 SHMA Guidance ...... 3 Duty to Co-operate...... 3 Local Policy and Strategy Context ...... 3 Sustainable Communities Strategy 2009-2026 ...... 3 Corporate Plan 2011-2015 ...... 4 Core Strategy 2008-2026 ...... 5 Housing Strategy 2009-14 ...... 6 Economic Development Growth Strategy 2012-15 ...... 6 Scope of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment...... 6

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2. Housing Market Area ...... 7 Identifying the local functional housing markets 7 Guidance...... 7 The Development in Understanding of the Wycombe HMA ...... 9 Sub Regional Housing Markets (DTZ; 2004) ...... 9 Berkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (DTZ; 2007) ...... 10 Buckinghamshire SHMA (Fordham Research; 2008) ...... 11 Geography of Housing Market Areas in England (National Housing and Planning Advisory Unit [NHPAU]; Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies [CURDS]; 2010) ...... 12 Aylesbury Vale SHMA Validation Study (GL Hearn; 2013) ...... 13 Summary of Previous Housing Market Area Assessments ...... 13 Housing Market Area assessment (2013) ...... 14 Migration Trends ...... 14 Migration Flows ...... 15 Defining Housing Market Areas for the Wycombe SHMA ...... 16 Migration to and from Wycombe HMA within the UK ...... 20 Travel to Work Patterns ...... 21 Housing Market Area distribution by Local Authority Area ...... 24 Comparing the ORS Wycombe HMA analysis with CURDS ...... 25 Comparing the Housing Market Area with the Broad Rental Market Area ...... 26 The Housing Market Area - Conclusion ...... 27

3. The Socio-economic Context ...... 30 An overview of the existing population 30 Local Population Characteristics ...... 30 Age Profile ...... 31 Older People ...... 32 Minority Ethnic Groups ...... 33 Migrant Workers ...... 33 The Local Economy ...... 35 Local Employment ...... 35 Occupation and Earnings ...... 37 Industry ...... 38 Students ...... 39 Impact of Welfare Reform on the Housing Market ...... 43 Specific Changes to Housing Benefit ...... 43 Capping of Total Household Benefits at £500 per Week ...... 46 Potential Impact of Benefit Reform on the Private Rented Sector ...... 46

4. Current Housing Stock...... 49 An overview of the existing housing stock 49

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Existing Housing Stock ...... 49 Dwelling Type ...... 49 Dwelling Characteristics ...... 50 Dwelling Age and Condition ...... 50 Houses in Multiple Occupation ...... 51 Overcrowding ...... 53 Communal Establishments ...... 54 Housing Tenure ...... 54 Property Prices ...... 55 Private Rented Sector ...... 57 Private Rent in Wycombe District ...... 58 Policy Developments ...... 60

5. Current Housing Market...... 65 The relationship between households and housing 65 Housing Affordability ...... 65 Turnover of Private Housing for Sale ...... 66 Repossessions ...... 66 Right to Buy ...... 67 Affordable and Social Housing Sector ...... 68 Meeting Housing Need in the Private Rented Sector: Housing Benefit ...... 70 Acute Housing Need: Homelessness ...... 73 Housing Need – Summarising the Current Market ...... 73 Impact of International Migration on the Housing Market ...... 74 Current Housing Market and the Local Economy ...... 75

6. Projecting Housing Requirements ...... 77 Establishing the future need and demand for housing 77 Population and Household Projections ...... 78 Current and Future Population ...... 79 Developing Population Projections ...... 80 Economic Activity ...... 82 Communal Establishments ...... 86 Household Projections ...... 87 Summary of Key Findings ...... 89 Housing Market Signals ...... 90

7. Duty to Co-operate ...... 92 Establishing the housing needs of adjoining areas and how those needs will be met 92 Overview ...... 92 Legal basis ...... 92 Duty to Co-operate Guidance ...... 92

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

National Planning Policy Framework (2012) ...... 92 Assessment of housing and economic development needs (draft 2013) ...... 93 The Duty to Co-operate Process...... 93 The Wycombe Housing Market Area ...... 94 Projected Household Growth and Housing delivery ...... 95

8. Modelling Future Housing Mix ...... 98 Establishing the type and tenure of housing required 98 Overview of the Modelling Process ...... 99 Housing Supply ...... 101 Understanding Housing Requirements ...... 103 Core Modelling Assumptions ...... 103 Key Findings: 2011 to 2031 ...... 104 Scenario Testing ...... 106 Estimate of the Size of Housing Required ...... 108

9. Specialist Housing Needs ...... 112 Housing for Older People ...... 112 The UK’s ageing population ...... 112 Modelling Older People’s Housing Requirements ...... 114 Modelling Future Requirements ...... 115 Older People’s Population Forecast ...... 116 Planning Policy and Older People ...... 118 Disabled People ...... 119 Service Families ...... 121 Requirements for Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople ...... 122 Existing Sites in Wycombe District ...... 124 Additional Site Provision: Future Need ...... 124 Overall Needs for Wycombe District ...... 125 Travelling Showpersons ...... 125

10. Housing Delivery ...... 127 Recent Trends in New Housing 127 Housing Delivery Trends ...... 127 Viability in Delivering New Housing ...... 128 Help to Buy ...... 129 Delivery of Affordable Housing ...... 130 Affordable Rents ...... 131 Self Builders ...... 132 Future Housing Delivery ...... 133 New Market Housing in the UK ...... 133

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Current Housing Market ...... 133 Attempts to stimulate delivery of market housing ...... 134 Affordable Housing ...... 135 Government Funding of Affordable Housing ...... 135 Other Issues Affecting Delivery of New Affordable Homes ...... 136

11. Key Findings and Conclusions ...... 139 Future policy implications for the authorities to consider 139 Introduction ...... 139 National Economy ...... 139 Housing and the SHMA ...... 140 Overview ...... 141 Housing Market Areas ...... 141 Socio Economic Factors ...... 143 Housing Stock ...... 144 Local Housing Market ...... 145 Future housing requirements...... 146 The affordable housing target ...... 147 Specialist Housing Needs ...... 148 Housing Delivery ...... 149

Appendix A ...... 151 Planning Policy 151 Excerpts from the National Planning Policy Framework ...... 151

Appendix B ...... 154 Glossary of Terms 154 Definitions ...... 154 Acronyms and Initials ...... 156

Appendix C ...... 157 Data Sources 157

Appendix D ...... 160 Table of figures 160

Appendix E ...... 165 Audit of SHMA against draft Government Guidance issued August 2013 165

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Executive Summary Summary of key findings and conclusions

Introduction

1. This Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) has been undertaken at a time of considerable change in both the Wycombe District and the national housing market and is, effectively, in two key strands.

2. Firstly, it identifies the housing needs of the local housing market area and how these were derived, following a critical path which considered projected future population, how this will convert into households and the housing required which will be needed to meet these needs.

3. Secondly, the SHMA considers several important strategic issues regarding the housing market area, the wider housing market and how this might be changing, as well as specific issues such as the future specialist housing needs of older people.

4. This Executive Summary, therefore, seeks to summarise the key strategic issues emerging from the SHMA and where Wycombe District might focus its future strategic response. Housing Market Area

5. The Housing Market Area (HMA) is, arguably, the fundamental building block of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment, setting out the spatial parameters of the housing market in and around Wycombe District.

6. Draft National Planning Policy Guidance (2013) states that:

‘A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work.

The extent of the housing market areas identified will vary, and many will in practice cut across various local planning authority administrative boundaries’.

7. The HMA analysis has, therefore, revisited historic data and more recent demographic data to consider the connectivity and self-containment of housing markets surrounding Wycombe District. Further, it has considered this evidence in the context of other local authorities within the HMA area.

8. The HMA analysis shows the functional HMA is not the same as the Wycombe District local authority boundary but is a slightly larger area. However, the vast majority of the population in the HMA is within the Wycombe District area itself. Consequently, the SHMA focuses upon the area formed by the administrative area served by Wycombe District Council.

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading)

9. It should be noted that no new data to undertake HMA analysis has been published since the 2001 Census at the required granularity. New Census data, which could inform a revised view, is not anticipated until Spring 2014. Therefore, it is recommended that Wycombe District Council should consider updating the HMA analysis when new data is available. Population and Household projections

10. The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPG) states that Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing based on household and population projections that take account of migration and other demographic change.

11. National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) emphasises the use of CLG Household Projections as the appropriate starting point to objectively assess need. However, the Guidance allows these to be sensitivity tested, allowing for alternative assumptions to be used.

12. Key to sensitivity testing is a consideration of how long-term trends impact on the structure of households and population over the full planning period.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Household projections

13. CLG Household projections are the starting point for considering future population and household numbers. For Wycombe District, the projections have varied over time, with the projected increase in households ranging from 380 up to 520 additional households each year. The variation is likely to be influenced by a wide range of underlying data and trend-based assumptions.

CLG Household Projections by Local Authority (Source: CLG Household Projections)

10-year period 25-year period CLG Household Total Annual Total Annual Projections Period Period Change Average Change Average 2006-based 2006-16 4,000 400 2006-31 10,000 400 2008-based 2008-18 5,000 500 2008-33 13,000 520 Interim 2011-based 2011-21 3,800 380 - - -

14. Further, projections are currently classed as “interim” (i.e. only for the 10 year period 2011-21 rather than the normal 25 year period) and do not consider 2011 Census data fully. Projections which consider the 2011 Census and project forward 25-years will be available in late 2014; it will be important for the Council to consider this information when it is published.

Drivers of Population Change

16. The Wycombe District Population has been further analysed to consider what is driving any increase or decrease, in particular natural change (the balance of births and deaths) and net migration (the increase or decrease brought about by people moving in and out of the area).

Components of population change, revised in the light of the 2011 Census (Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates, revised. Note: “Other Changes” includes adjustments for asylum seekers, prisoners, armed forces and other unattributable changes. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100)

International Migration Natural UK Migration Other Total Year Births Deaths Migration and Other Change Changes Change In Out In Out Changes

2001-02 1,975 1,294 681 8,731 9,758 922 829 599 -335 346 2002-03 1,993 1,264 729 8,599 9,901 1,349 760 575 -138 591 2003-04 2,061 1,296 765 8,407 9,658 1,460 966 421 -336 429 2004-05 2,001 1,223 778 8,305 8,964 1,251 813 644 423 1,201 2005-06 2,157 1,185 972 8,528 9,422 1,633 1,224 549 64 1,036 2006-07 2,104 1,141 963 8,805 9,491 1,349 1,081 556 138 1,101 2007-08 2,184 1,187 997 8,023 8,763 1,246 993 534 47 1,044 2008-09 2,251 1,172 1,079 7,648 8,195 1,051 1,084 554 -26 1,053 2009-10 2,139 1,155 984 8,393 8,368 888 1,001 561 473 1,457 2010-11 2,299 1,279 1,020 8,261 8,068 1,059 1,164 542 630 1,650 10-year 2,116 1,220 897 8,370 9,059 1,221 992 554 94 991 Average 5-Year

Averages 2001-06 2,037 1,252 785 8,514 9,541 1,323 918 558 -64 721 2002-07 2,063 1,222 841 8,529 9,487 1,408 969 549 30 872 2003-08 2,101 1,206 895 8,414 9,260 1,388 1,015 541 67 962 2004-09 2,139 1,182 958 8,262 8,967 1,306 1,039 567 129 1,087 2005-10 2,167 1,168 999 8,279 8,848 1,233 1,077 551 139 1,138 2006-11 2,195 1,187 1,009 8,226 8,577 1,119 1,065 549 252 1,261 Lowest Net 2,037 1,252 785 8,514 9,541 1,323 918 558 -64 721 Migration Highest Net 2,195 1,187 1,009 8,226 8,577 1,119 1,065 -297 252 1,261 Migration

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

17. ORS developed a range of migration-led scenarios from to derive alternative population projections. The mid-trend migration scenario is based on a 10-year average, and the high- and low-trend scenarios based on 5-year averages. The analysis also presents outputs based on a zero migration scenario, where all migration flows are assumed to be zero.

Assumed migration flows for population projections based on high-, mid- and low-trend migration scenarios

Base Data Adjusted Flows Migration International Scenario UK International Other UK and Other Changes In Out In Out Changes In Out In Out

High-trend 8,226 8,577 1,119 1,065 549 8,464 8,329 1,151 1,034 252 Mid-trend 8,370 9,059 1,221 992 554 8,606 8,804 1,255 964 94 Low-trend 8,514 9,541 1,323 918 558 8,748 9,278 1,359 893 -64 Zero - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0

Population Projections

18. The population trend scenarios formed the basis for forward population projections analysis using PopGroup software (developed by Manchester University). The analysis is informed by a range of assumptions which have been determined on the basis of the most up-to-date information about the population in Wycombe District.

Population projections 2011-31 comparing Nil, High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios

Trend Zero migration Low-trend migration Mid-trend migration High-trend migration

200,000

195,000

190,000

185,000

180,000

175,000

Numberof People 170,000

165,000

160,000

155,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

19. The trend-based projections range from 188,000 based on the Low-trend Migration scenario up to 195,500 based on the High-trend Migration scenario, which represent 20-year increases of 16,100 persons and 23,600 persons respectively (a range of 7,500 persons between the two scenarios).

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Economic Activity

20. On the basis of the population projections, it is also possible to estimate the future labour force given economic activity rates by age and gender.

21. By applying these economic activity rates to the population projections, we can establish the associated labour force (Figure 74). However, there is a difficulty in that economic activity rates are unlikely to remain constant as illustrated by past trends, and further consideration is required when looking forward.

22. It is difficult to extrapolate future economic activity rates, given that the analysis is inherently complex and dependent on a range of demographic, socio-economic and structural changes in the labour market. Various external studies often show contradictory forecasts. Furthermore, the SHMA is not a detailed labour force study. However, it is necessary to take account of changing future participation rates when considering the likely future workforce.

23. In the absence of any recent data from the ONS, future participation rates have been calculated using a time trend analysis for each population subgroup. The analysis uses ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, based on the quarterly data for the period 2001 (Q1) to 2013 (Q1), and the outputs from the analysis are summarised as:

Projected economic activity rates by age and gender (Note: Rates for population aged 25-74 based on equivalent UK trend-based projections (orange cells). Rates for general population aged 16-24 and aged 75+ held constant (light blue cells))

UK Wycombe District Age and General Population Gender Trend 2011 Trend 2031 Change % Change 2011 2031 Males 16-24 67.1 51.1 -16.0 -24% 66.6 66.6 Males 25-34 92.8 93.2 +0.4 +0% 94.4 94.4 Males 35-49 92.2 93.1 +1.0 +1% 95.4 96.3 Males 50-64 76.3 82.0 +5.7 +8% 86.0 92.9 Males 65-74 25.7 45.0 11.9 20.8 +8.9 +75% Males 75+ 5.9 5.9 Females 16-24 61.8 50.6 -11.3 -18% 64.1 64.1 Females 25-34 77.0 82.0 +5.0 +6% 79.5 84.3 Females 35-49 80.0 84.7 +4.7 +6% 80.9 85.7 Females 50-64 61.8 74.2 +12.4 +20% 69.4 83.3 Females 65-74 16.1 32.4 6.2 12.5 +6.3 +101% Females 75+ 3.0 3.0

24. Using these adjusted rates, we can estimate the labour force for each of the population projections. This shows that the trend-based scenarios suggest that the work force is likely to increase by between 11,500 and 15,500 workers over the 20-year period to 2031.

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Labour force projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures calculated by applying 2011 Economic Activity Rates to age distributions from ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate for 2011 and projected trend-based Economic Activity Rates to the Projected Population for 2031. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100)

2011 2031 High-trend Migration 2031 Mid-trend Migration 2031 Low-trend Migration 2031 Zero Migration Age Total Rate EA Total Rate EA Total Rate EA Total Rate EA Total Rate EA

Males 16-24 9,584 65.7 6,298 10,569 66.6 7,039 10,377 66.6 6,911 10,184 66.6 6,783 9,915 66.6 6,603 Males 25-34 10,726 94.4 10,128 12,429 94.4 11,736 12,195 94.4 11,515 11,961 94.4 11,295 10,861 94.4 10,255 Males 35-49 19,135 95.3 18,239 18,634 96.3 17,946 18,379 96.3 17,701 18,127 96.3 17,458 15,686 96.3 15,107 Males 50-64 15,283 86.5 13,215 16,676 92.9 15,489 16,480 92.9 15,307 16,282 92.9 15,124 17,245 92.9 16,018 Males 65-74 7,114 25.9 1,842 9,050 45.0 4,074 8,912 45.0 4,012 8,772 45.0 3,949 10,883 45.0 4,900 Males 75+ 5,316 5.9 313 9,361 5.9 552 9,243 5.9 545 9,124 5.9 538 10,708 5.9 632 Females 16-24 9,496 64.2 6,093 9,426 64.1 6,042 9,118 64.1 5,844 8,807 64.1 5,645 9,588 64.1 6,146 Females 25-34 10,982 79.5 8,731 11,604 84.3 9,779 11,145 84.3 9,393 10,689 84.3 9,009 10,596 84.3 8,930 Females 35-49 18,892 81.0 15,294 20,332 85.7 17,425 19,965 85.7 17,111 19,603 85.7 16,800 15,782 85.7 13,526 Females 50-64 15,562 70.4 10,958 17,419 83.3 14,514 17,204 83.3 14,336 16,987 83.3 14,155 17,847 83.3 14,871 Females 65-74 7,618 16.4 1,251 9,567 32.4 3,097 9,443 32.4 3,057 9,318 32.4 3,016 10,893 32.4 3,526 Females 75+ 7,398 3.0 223 12,270 3.0 368 12,133 3.0 364 11,995 3.0 360 13,046 3.0 391 TOTAL 137,106 - 92,585 157,336 - 108,061 154,594 - 106,096 151,849 - 104,132 153,049 100,905 Net Change - - - +20,230 - +15,478 +17,488 - +13,511 +14,743 - +11,546 +15,943 - +8,320 2001-31

Household Projections

25. The next stage in the process is to convert population forecasts into household forecasts. Our analysis shows that the CLG 2011-based headship rates provide a realistic basis in the context of the current population. Nevertheless, it should be noted that current economic circumstances may be suppressing household formation; in different circumstances, new households might be more easily able to form.

26. The SHMA, therefore, considered the impact of both 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates on the projected number of households based on the High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios, (after taking account of the population assumed to be living in communal establishments).

Household projections 2011-31 comparing High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios

2008-based High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration 2011-based High-trend Mid-trend 85,000

80,000

75,000

70,000

65,000 Numberof Households 60,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031

27. The table below summarises the projected number of households for each of the three migration-led population scenarios and each of the two headship rates.

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Household projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios and 2008-based and 2011-based Headship Rates (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

2008-based Headship Rates 2011-based Headship Rates

High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Households 2011 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 2031 81,700 80,400 79,100 79,700 79,700 78,400 77,100 78,100 Net change +13,800 +12,500 +11,200 +11,800 +11,800 +10,500 +9,300 +10,300 Dwellings Additional occupied dwellings 13,800 12,500 11,200 11,800 11,800 10,500 9,300 10,300 Dwellings with no usual residents 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Total dwelling requirement 14,300 13,000 11,600 12,200 12,200 10,900 9,600 10,600 Annual average dwelling 720 650 580 610 610 550 480 530 requirement

Summary of Key Findings

28. Figure 86 provide a summary of the key outputs presented regarding population, headship rates and households.

Figure 1: Population, labour force and household projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero

Migration Migration Migration Migration Population Projections 2011 172,000 172,000 172,000 172,000 195,500 191,700 188,200 185,500 2031 +23,600 +19,800 +16,100 +13,600 Labour Force Projections 2011 92,600 92,600 92,600 92,600 2031 99,500 97,700 95,900 91,700 Future Economic Activity Rates held constant at 2011 rates +7,000 +5,100 +3,300 -800 2031 108,100 106,100 104,100 100,900 Future Economic Activity Rates projected based on UK-trends +15,500 +13,500 +11,500 +8,300 Household Projections 2011 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 2031 81,700 80,400 79,100 79,700 Future Headship based on rates from CLG 2008-based projections +13,800 +12,500 +11,200 +11,800 2031 79,700 78,400 77,100 78,100 Future Headship based on rates from CLG 2011-based projections +11,800 +10,500 +9,300 +10,300 Dwelling Requirement 2011-31 +14,300 +13,000 +11,600 +12,200 Future Headship based on rates from 720 per annum 650 per annum 580 per annum 610 per annum CLG 2008-based projections 2011-31 +12,200 +10,900 +9,600 +10,600 Future Headship based on rates from 610 per annum 550 per annum 480 per annum 530 per annum CLG 2011-based projections

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Assessed Housing Need

29. Housing Need has been modelled using the household forecast as an input into the ORS Housing Mix Model. This considers both housing need and overall housing requirements on a longer-term basis. The model uses a wide range of secondary data sources to build on household projections and profile how the housing stock will need to change in order to accommodate the projected future population and households.

30. Overall, the SHMA has concluded that the objectively assessed need for housing in Wycombe is likely to be around 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings over the next 20 years. This is equivalent to around 550-600 dwellings annually, notably higher than previous household projections from CLG.

Key Findings: 2011 to 2031

31. The modelled housing requirement outputs for Wycombe District are based upon the range of household projections, assumptions and issues discussed earlier in this Executive Summary - in particular, the Model uses nationally recognised household income and mortgage multipliers. The housing tenure mix required for Wycombe District can be summarised as set out below. Overall, there remains a high level of affordable housing need, in the region of 70% of the total housing requirement.

Overall Housing Requirement 2011-2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios and 2008-based and 2011- based Headship Rates (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. Figures rounded to nearest 100)

2008-based Headship Rates 2011-based Headship Rates

High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Housing Requirement Market housing 5,400 4,600 3,700 4,100 4,200 3,300 2,500 3,100 Intermediate affordable housing 6,100 5,800 5,500 5,700 6,200 5,900 5,600 5,900 Social rent/affordable rent housing 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,400 1,800 1,700 1,500 1,600 Overall housing requirement 14,300 13,000 11,600 12,200 12,200 10,900 9,600 10,600 Annual average dwelling 720 650 580 610 610 550 480 530 requirement % of Overall Housing Requirement Market housing 38.1% 35.3% 31.8% 33.6% 34.1% 30.5% 25.9% 29.7% Intermediate affordable housing 42.6% 44.8% 47.6% 47.0% 50.9% 54.3% 58.6% 55.4% Social rent/affordable rent housing 19.3% 19.9% 20.6% 19.4% 15.0% 15.2% 15.5% 14.9%

Estimate of the Size Mix of Housing Required including Affordable Housing

32. The model also estimates the size mix for all tenures and shows the market requirement is more heavily focused on 3 bedroom plus properties, while predominantly smaller dwelling sizes are required in the affordable housing sectors. The outputs are based upon the mid migration scenario, but all scenarios show a similar distribution pattern based on the core assumptions.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates (Note: All figures rounded to the nearest 100)

Affordable Housing Market TOTAL Housing Intermediate Social Rent/ Housing Affordable Rent Housing Requirement 1 bedroom - 1,200 700 1,900 2 bedrooms - 2,600 500 3,100 3 bedrooms 2,000 1,800 400 4,300 4+ bedrooms 1,300 200 100 1,600 Overall housing requirement 3,300 5,900 1,700 10,900 Percentage of total requirement 30.4% 54.3% 15.2% 100.0%

33. However, Chapter 8 of this report highlights how changes in assumptions used can have a marked difference in the mix of housing. For example, if either the percentage of income spent on housing costs increase or the mortgage multiplier are increased then the demand for market housing rises significantly and the demand for intermediate housing reduces significantly. Arguably, this change to these assumptions may more closely reflect the current market situation although this may not be desirable or sustainable in the longer term.

34. The Housing Mix Model concludes that the most appropriate mix is likely to include: » Market housing: around two-fifths 1 or 2 bedroom dwellings, a further two-fifths 3 bedroom homes and the remaining fifth being dwellings with 4 or more bedrooms; » Intermediate affordable housing: around a quarter 1 bedroom dwellings, a half with 2 bedrooms, a quarter being three bedroom homes and only a small requirement for intermediate affordable housing with 4 or more bedrooms; and » Social rent/affordable rent housing: around two-fifths being 1 bedroom, a quarter with 2 bedrooms, a further quarter with 3 bedrooms and a small proportion with 4 or more bedrooms.

However, in relation to social and affordable rented housing, the Council will have to consider its obligations to focus on those households in priority housing need. Housing Register data (for under 55s) shows a lower need for 1 bed properties and a greater need for 2 bed properties and some need for 4 bed properties. The Council will need to balance the longer term requirements identified by the model alongside the more immediate needs of those households currently in priority need.

Specialist Housing

Older People

35. Wycombe District faces a significant future challenge from its projected increase in its older population. The future additional housing supply needed to meet this challenge, however, require careful consideration. Older people are living longer, healthier lives, and the specialist housing offered today may not be appropriate in future years. Current policy means the number of current Care and Nursing homes can be expected to decline as people are supported longer in their own homes. Health and Adult Social Care reform complicate any strategic response and the Council may wish to co-ordinate its overall strategy with Adult and Social Care teams.

36. Overall, any future specialist housing offered needs to both understand not just the numbers of specialist homes required but also the aspirations of what older people want from new supply. New supply for older

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people is a complex issue and may be worthy of further study. In addition, the challenge of how to remodel or redevelop existing surplus provision may also need a co-ordinated response across the sub-region.

37. The projected Older People’s population is shown below:

Older people aged 75+ Population Growth Projections 2011-2031 (Source: ONS 2010 Sub-National Population Projections)

2010-based Subnational Population Projections 30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000 Population 22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

38. Chapter 9 sets out the estimated Gross requirement for specialist housing for older people (including both market and affordable options) and these are summarised below.

Implications of Older People Resource Pack Ratios based on Population Projection Scenarios (Note: figures may not sum due to rounding) Enhanced Area Extra care Dementia LSE All Types Sheltered GROSS REQUIREMENT Wycombe (2031) 1,100 500 100 2,900 4,700 5 Year Requirement Wycombe (2031) 180 80 20 480 760

39. Buckinghamshire County Council have also produced modelled outputs regarding future specialist provision which takes into account various factors including current supply, demand and other market features.

40. This suggests that Wycombe District has a current Net deficit of c.200 specialist units to 2035 over what is currently required. This involves a mix of c.50% Nursing Care & 50% Residential/Extra Care.

41. In taking forward the implications of the ageing population, Good Practice suggests a range of approaches that Wycombe District may wish to consider: » Work closely with colleagues in Health and Adult Social Care, and with the new Health and Well Being Board and Clinical Commissioning Group(s) locally regarding new specialised accommodation requirements for Older People

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» Consider the Consider the requirements for specialist housing requirements identified by Buckinghamshire County Council, for both older people and people of working age » Consider the Planning Policy recommendations from ‘Housing in later life: planning ahead for specialist housing for older people’ (2012) and incorporate, where appropriate, planning policies to support the specialist housing provision.

Disabled People

42. Overall, projections to 2031 shows that, against population scenarios, the numbers of disabled people aged under 65 are likely to increase. The Council should, therefore, consider the specialist housing requirements identified by Buckinghamshire County Council for Working Age people with learning disability, mental health issues and physical disability.

Projected specialist housing requirements working age people to 2010-35 (Source: Buckinghamshire County Council) Total All Bucks per annum Wycombe Note Learning disability 200-235 8-12 2-4 16-24 for Years 1-5 5-8 Accelerated provision in years 1-5 Mental Health 25-30 8 Years 1-2 2-3 8 per 5/6 years 2-3 Every 5-6 years

Physical Disability 20-25 6-10 Years 1-3 2-3 6-10 per 5/6 years 2-3 Every 5-6 years

Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople

43. The estimated extra site provision for Gypsies and Travellers required until 2023 is 21 pitches. There is a need for one additional Travelling Showpeople plot in Wycombe District to allow for natural growth.

The Housing Market

44. The SHMA considers various aspects of the wider housing market and the signals these suggest for the future.

45. Population: Wycombe District’s population and household increases are relatively slower than those for the wider South East region. However, the district has higher percentages of children compared to South East and England in all age cohorts below 14 years. Wycombe District has significantly lower relative numbers of older people compared to South East and England in every cohort. However, the local population of older people has relatively increased in the period 2001-2011 in all cohorts. The population of people from a minority ethnic group has increased faster than in the South East and England, particularly for the Asian population.

46. Local Economy: the economically active population has increased overall 2001-11, driven by a relatively steep rise in part time and self-employed working and working students. Long-term unemployment rates in Wycombe District are close to that for the South East, but they are significantly lower than for England. People in Professional occupations has grown by 6.7% since 2001, exceeding the growth for England and the South East.

47. Students: Students have a limited impact on Wycombe District’s housing market. There are no residential areas dominated by students: although the highest density in the centre of High Wycombe can show significant densities, this is lower than traditional University towns which can have up to 90%.

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48. Welfare Reform: A key risk for the local housing market concerns Welfare reform and, in particular, how this might impact on the Private Rented Sector for those households in need who live there with housing benefit support. The conversion rate of housing stock to HMOs increased between 2001 and 2011 and this trend may change as a result of reform. The total number of housing benefit claimants in the private rented sector is likely to continue to rise, although their locations may change to lower priced areas.

49. The Private Rented Sector: the sector has grown significantly in the past decade (through conversion of owner occupied stock) and can be expected to grow further. In responding to the challenge this change is making, WDC may wish to continue to enhance its role in the sector to drive improvements in the management and quality of homes. The Council may also wish to consider how or if it could increase supply of new build private rented homes.

50. Owner occupation: market housing has experienced considerable change regarding its operation in recent years. Affordability has worsened in the last decade despite some improvement in 2008-09. The level of sales transactions in Wycombe District beyond 2008/09 has been lower than in previous years. The Right to Buy re-launch (2012) has had an impact across the country and may increase sales further. This could impact on the overall net supply of affordable housing for rent in Wycombe District, if RTB sales exceed new affordable housing delivery.

Conclusion

51. Wycombe District has a positive housing offer which continues to attract and retain people in the area for a mix of reasons, not least the quality of life. However, there remain challenges that the housing market faces both now and in the future: growth in population and households, the challenge of new housing delivery, a growing private rented sector, and the specific needs of older and disabled households. Overall, therefore, the need for a continued co-ordinated approach by Wycombe District Council towards the varied housing challenges it faces is essential to ensure future success.

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1. Introducing the Study Background to the project and wider policy context

Project Overview

1.1 Opinion Research Services (ORS) were commissioned by Wycombe District Council (WDC) in April 2013 to undertake a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), to assist the Council in the preparation of its Local Development Framework documents, Land Use Planning and Development Control functions, Housing Strategy and other service planning issues.

What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment? 1.2 SHMAs assess the full range of housing requirements for an area to both deepen understanding of sub- regional housing markets and develop future strategy, all based on the best available evidence. Critically, their evidence base shapes and assists with the production of the Local Plan which sets out the spatial policy for a local area. They also provide evidence to support development of local housing strategies and can also inform the planning of other services such as education, health and transport.

1.3 The SHMA also: » Provides evidence-based forecasts of need and demand for housing of different types, sizes and tenures (including market housing, intermediate tenures and social rent/affordable rent) to inform local, sub-regional and regional spatial planning and housing strategies. » Increases the capability of the commissioning authority to monitor and forecast housing market activity and trends. » Enables the commissioning authority to develop its spatial planning policies and housing strategies so they may intervene positively in the local housing market, on the basis of sound knowledge of local economic, social and cultural relationships.

The Role of SHMAs A SHMA is a framework that local authorities can follow to develop a good understanding of how housing markets operate. It promotes an approach to assessing housing need and demand which can inform the development of local plans and housing policies. The purpose of the SHMA is to form part of a wider evidence base for the development of housing and planning polices, which should be considered alongside other factors such as the viability of delivering affordable housing, land availability and local policy priorities including the creation of mixed and balanced communities. Therefore, the evidence provided in the SHMA should not be viewed in isolation and its results cannot be used in support of development applications, as it does not set housing or planning policy. A SHMA provides part of the evidence needed to inform policy development, and other factors are equally important in the policy development process.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

1.4 The SHMA is based on a wide range of information collated from many sources, including: » Existing policy documents and supporting information published by the Local Authority and their partners; » Stakeholder fieldwork with various representative agencies; » Secondary data and official statistics from a wide range of local, regional and national sources.

1.5 The SHMA does not seek to determine rigid policy conclusions, but instead provides a key component of the evidence base required to develop and support a sound policy framework. It is important to recognise that the information from the SHMA should not be considered in isolation, but forms part of a wider evidence base to inform the development of housing and planning policies.

National Policy and Strategy Context

1.6 The SHMA review is being undertaken at a time of significant policy and strategy change in housing and related areas in England – in particular, significant changes have informed the SHMA development: » Welfare Benefit Reform (Welfare Reform Act 2012) » Reform of Health Services (Health & Social Care Act 2012) » Reform of Adult Social Care (Draft Care and Support Bill 2012) » Planning: a new National Planning Policy Framework (2012)

1.7 Planning policy has undergone recent significant recent change. In July 2010 Government announced that Regional Spatial Strategies (RSS) are to be revoked. The RSS for the South East (RPG9 2011 – 2016) was revoked on 25 March 2013 by S.I. 2013/427 (apart from Policy NRM6 relating to the Thames Basin Heaths Special Protection Area). Planning Policy Statements were replaced by the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) in March 2012. As a replacement for the RSS, the NPPF states (paragraph 159) that:

“Local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area. They should prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which: » meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; » addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and » caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand;”

1.8 Therefore, in the absence of any direct guidance on matters such as housing targets, responsibility for establishing the level of future housing provision required rests solely with the local planning authority. The key objective of this study is to produce a range of household forecasts of the likely levels of housing which satisfy the NPPF criteria. The SHMA has also taken into consideration other key aspects of the National Planning Policy Framework 2012 and these are set out in Appendix A.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

SHMA Guidance 1.9 New guidance on assessing housing and economic development needs was published in August 2013 (‘Assessment of housing and economic development needs’) during the lifetime of this project, and following the Taylor Review of Planning (2012).

1.10 The approach taken in preparation of the SHMA since April 2013 is based on ORS’ established methodology, which has been tested and found robust on numerous occasions. This methodology has ensured that the study is compliant with various historic SHMA Guidance (Practice Guidance and Annexes; CLG 2007) and other relevant CLG studies (including the “Geography of Housing Market Areas 2010” and Advice Note on “Identifying sub-regional housing market areas” 2007).

1.11 Although the new Guidance has been available for only a limited period and is currently only published in draft, the study has sought to take account of the new Guidance. An initial compliance audit of the SHMA against the new Guidance is provided in Appendix E.

Duty to Co-operate 1.12 The Duty to Co-operate was introduced in the 2011 Localism Act and is a legal obligation. The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) has an expectation (Paragraphs 178-181 – see Appendix 1) that local authorities co-operate with others on issues with any cross-boundary impact. This co-operation will need to be demonstrated as sound when plans are submitted for examination. One key issue is how any unmet development and infrastructure requirements can be provided by co-operating with adjoining authorities (subject to tests of reasonableness and sustainability). Co-operation is ‘a continuous process of engagement’ from ‘thinking through to implementation’.

Local Policy and Strategy Context

1.13 The SHMA has also considered the range of local strategies, plans and assessments carried out by WDC, with summaries of each set out below:

Sustainable Communities Strategy 2009-2026 1.14 WDC’s Sustainable Communities Strategy includes in its 2009 challenges: » “Preserving and enhancing the special character of our built environment and countryside and the environmental quality we all enjoy, while being economically strong. » “Preventing the District from either becoming a dormitory area or overheating – striking the best balance we can between jobs and labour supply. » “Supporting business in periods of growth and in difficult times. » “Providing more homes and the infrastructure to support these, including more affordable homes to meet the needs of local people.”

1.15 One of the Strategy’s five main themes, ‘Thriving economy’, covers the ambition to “strengthen our existing prosperity to become an acknowledged ‘global centre’ for enterprise and entrepreneurship, even in the face of difficult economic conditions”. Delivery of the Strategy means that a significant requirement for housing has been determined to meet identified needs.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

“Wycombe District is a popular but expensive place to live and work. Local house prices are high, with the average house price in 2008 being £328,000. This sharpens the divide between those who can afford to buy homes and those who cannot. First time buyers, young people, key workers and those on lower incomes find it especially difficult to enter the local housing market. “As set out in the South East Plan, 7,800 new homes will be built in our area between 2006 and 2026. This means 390 homes a year, 350 of which will be in the southern part of the District (High Wycombe and Marlow). We need to ensure the right mix of housing so that affordable homes are available for those who need them.”

1.16 In terms of demographic change, the Strategy identifies a significant increase in the proportion of older people in the population of the District, which has implications for housing need and mix: “By 2026, our District will see a six percent increase in the overall population from 161,400 to 171,000. The number of younger people will remain constant and the number of working age people will dip slightly. However, there will be a 20 per cent increase to 15,600 in the 65- 74 age group and a 68 per cent increase to 19,100 in the over 75 age group. We must plan for these changes if we are to achieve the outcomes set out in this strategy.”

Corporate Plan 2011-2015 1.17 The Corporate Plan Vision for Wycombe District is a place which is “Economically strong and the place to live, work and visit”. This Vision is set out in three priorities branded as “People, Place and Pounds”, under which WDC will strive to: » “Engage and work with our communities: – Improve the way we consult, engage and listen to our residents and other stakeholders – Empower communities to help themselves and others including through active promotion of the Big Society – Ensure targeted and affordable help for those in most need » “Sustainably regenerate the area: – Enable the development of local sports, cultural and community facilities – Protect the Green Belt and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) – Work towards becoming a ‘greener’ District – Work with others to help retain and generate jobs in the District – Ensure a sustainable balance between homes, jobs and essential infrastructure » “Deliver value for money – Continue to improve efficiency and save money – Transform the way we deliver services to ensure that they are customer-focused and perform well – Ensure we have high performing assets”

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Core Strategy 2008-2026 1.18 WDC’s Core strategy was formally adopted on 7 July 2008 following the Inspector’s Report, becoming the first Development Plan Document to be adopted as part of the Wycombe Development Framework.

1.19 Wycombe District’s housing requirements are shaped by its mix of urban and rural landscapes. The three main population centres of High Wycombe, Marlow and Princes Risborough are balanced by rural settlements throughout the district. This is reflected in the Core Strategy (excerpt from Chapter 2 ‘What are we planning for?’ below): “2.1 Wycombe District is a special place. It has a rich and historic landscape sculpted by generations of rural activities. Pre and post industrial revolution industry was based in the District’s rural hinterland, focused on the once great chair making industry, which is now in decline. It has a patch work of rural towns, villages and hamlets. Much of our District is environmentally protected, with 71% in the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and 48% covered by the Green Belt. This has resulted in more intensive redevelopment in the urban areas to protect the Countryside. “2.3 The District has a population of around 160,000 making it the fifth largest non- metropolitan district in the country. The majority of the people live in the towns of High Wycombe, Marlow and Princes Risborough. Over 20% of households in the district comprise only pensioners. We have a substantial, and increasing, ethnic minority population, with around 10,000 residents in the District having family ties to Pakistan. People of Black Caribbean origin form the second largest ethnic minority community (3), although their number has fallen very slightly since 1991. The Muslim faith community is the second largest in the South East.”

1.20 WDC is keen to capitalise on its location as a driver for growth and the Core Strategy identifies a need to improve transport links with the Midlands and the South East (excerpt from Chapter 2 ‘What are we planning for?’ below): “2.2 Wycombe is in a prime location with excellent access to the M25/M40/M4 corridor, good rail links between London and Birmingham and close proximity to Heathrow airport and London. However, road and public transport services need improving to address congestion and growth, particularly road and rail links to Aylesbury and Milton Keynes to the north and south into the rest of the Thames Valley in Berkshire.”

1.21 The Housing Strategy summarises on page 14 the planned outcomes of the Core Strategy, which: » “Sets out an overall housing delivery target of 8,050 dwellings for the period 2006-26, most of which needs to be provided in the southern part of the District (including High Wycombe) » “Sets out new and more challenging requirements for affordable housing and seeks to secure affordable housing on smaller sites than before » “Facilitates rural exceptions housing schemes (supported by a more detailed policy in the current Local Plan) » “Provides a policy framework for gypsies and travellers, and travelling showpeople”

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Housing Strategy 2009-14 1.22 The current Housing Strategy has as its vision “Quality homes and excellent service for all” and seeks to deliver the following outcomes: » “Maximise the provision of affordable housing” » “Maximise the benefits from housing assets in the district (to cover all housing sectors)” » “Increase housing choices” » “Empower our customers and stakeholders”

1.23 For the purposes of the SHMA, the four themes interweave although a key issue is housing supply which we have explored in some depth within the SHMA Report.

Economic Development Growth Strategy 2012-15 1.24 WDC’s Economic Development Growth Strategy and Tactical Plan set out ‘a high level ambition for economic development to support and facilitate the creation of up to 2,000 local new jobs by March 2016’.

1.25 The delivery of the Economic Development Growth Strategy is also set within the context of extensive partnership working between WDC and the other partners in the Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP) as part of the Localism agenda. BTVLEP develops further existing partnership working to strengthen the performance of what is a functioning sub regional economy.

1.26 The Economic Development Strategy is supported by a Local Economic Assessment (LEA) and the data used within the LEA has been considered as part of the production of the SHMA.

Scope of the Strategic Housing Market Assessment 1.27 The objective of the SHMA study was to give the Council a clear and up to date evidence base on the housing needs of Wycombe District by undertaking an objective assessment of the need for housing of all types (including specialist housing). The aim is to derive an assessment which ensures compliance with the National Planning Policy Framework.

1.28 The SHMA outputs were also shared with the recent Local Economic Study (Peter Brett Associates) to join up housing and economic issues.

1.29 Stakeholder input was brought into the study via fieldwork which involved developers, registered providers, private landlords, Buckinghamshire County Council Adult and Family Well-being team, and estate agents, using a range of methods including focus groups and individual interviews. A briefing session for stakeholders was held in October 2013 regarding the emerging findings from the SHMA. The views of stakeholders are distributed throughout the report at relevant points.

1.30 The outputs from the SHMA have been discussed with other key local authorities under the Duty to Co- operate.

1.31 Outputs for Gypsy and Traveller requirements are included in the SHMA, in summary. More detailed information is given in the separate Buckinghamshire GTAA.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2. Housing Market Area Identifying the local functional housing markets

2.1 The identification of Housing Market Areas (HMAs) is the first relevant building block in the evidence for identifying objectively assessed needs for the SHMA. A functional housing market area may be defined as ‘...the geographical area in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live and work and where those moving house without changing employment choose to stay’ (Maclennan et al, 1998). This Chapter, therefore, considers the historic and current evidence regarding the Wycombe HMA and its current robustness.

Guidance

2.2 A key issue concerns whether the geographic coverage of Wycombe’s new SHMA, in relation to its Housing Market Areas (HMAs), provides an adequate basis for the objective assessment of housing needs in accordance with the NPPF. Guidance regarding HMAs is found in: » National Planning Policy Framework (CLG, 2012) » Draft National Planning Policy Guidance on the Assessment of housing and economic development needs (CLG, 2013) » Advice Note on “Identifying sub-regional housing market areas” (CLG; 2007) » Geography of Housing Market Areas’ (CLG; 2010)

2.3 NPPF advises local planning authorities that (Paragraph 159): “They should prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries.”

2.4 Paragraph 47 refers to Local Plans meeting the full objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area.

2.5 Draft Guidance on the Assessment of housing and economic development needs (August 2013) states:

‘A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work’.

2.6 The Guidance, therefore, requires an understanding of the housing market area which lies in Wycombe and identified 3 key data sources: » House prices and rates of change in house prices » Household migration and search patterns » Contextual data (eg travel to work area boundaries, retail and school catchment areas)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2.7 The Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) issued an Advice Note on “Identifying sub- regional housing market areas” (2007) which identifies three sources of information which help to evidence housing market areas, namely: » House prices and rates of change in house prices, which reflect household demand and preferences for different sizes and types of housing in different locations; » Household migration and search patterns, reflecting preferences and the trade-offs made when choosing housing with different characteristics; and » Contextual data, such as travel to work areas, which reflect the functional relationships between places where people work and live.

2.8 In November 2010 CLG issued a further report ‘Geography of Housing Market Areas’, which explored a range of potential methods for calculating housing market areas for England and applied these methods to the whole country to show the range of housing markets which would be generated. ‘Geography of Housing Market Areas’ (page 35) outlines three overlapping tiers of geography for housing markets: » Tier 1: framework housing market areas defined by long distance commuting flows and the long-term spatial framework with which housing markets operate; » Tier 2: local housing market areas defined by migration patterns that determine the limits of short term spatial house price arbitrage; » Tier 3: sub-markets defined in terms of neighbourhoods or house type price premiums.

2.9 Critically, both CLG publications outline that no one single approach (nor one single data source) provides a definitive solution to identifying local housing markets. However, by using a range of available data, judgements on appropriate geography can be made.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

The Development in Understanding of the Wycombe HMA

2.10 The development, evidence and understanding of Housing Market Areas has developed considerably in the last 10 years.

Sub Regional Housing Markets (DTZ; 2004) 2.11 DTZ undertook a regional assessment of sub-regional housing markets in 2004 for the then Regional Assembly. The evidence used was travel to work (TTW) and migration data, together with house price data. DTZ also considered the catchment areas for employment and retail centres.

2.12 Wycombe was identified as a sub-regional housing market (Inner North), principally centred on the Local Authority areas of Wycombe and Aylesbury Vale. However, there were considerable areas of ‘convergence’ or areas which overlap between markets; this is particularly so to the south of Wycombe towards Reading.

Figure 2: Proposed Sub-Regional Housing Markets with Shaded Overlaps (DTZ 2004; for the South East Regional Housing Board)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 3: Excerpt from: Proposed Sub-Regional Housing Markets with Shaded Overlaps (DTZ 2004)

Berkshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (DTZ; 2007) 2.13 In the Berkshire HMA (2007) further consideration was made of connectivity between Wycombe and the Inner West (Slough and Hounslow) sub-regional housing market as developed by DTZ in 2004.

2.14 This showed that, even though there was Travel to Work connectivity between Wycombe and Slough, there were negligible household movements and noted ‘the relatively weak relationships that this western Berkshire housing market has with Wycombe’.

2.15 Overall, the study concluded by proposing an ‘East Berkshire Plus’ HMA which included South Buckinghamshire but excluded Wycombe.

2.16 Extract from Berkshire SHMA 2007 (DTZ) ‘Figure 2.16 sets out the benchmark areas used in the subsequent SHMA analysis, which are based upon the findings above. Where appropriate, data is also provided for individual authority areas’.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Buckinghamshire SHMA (Fordham Research; 2008) 2.17 The 2008 Buckinghamshire SHMA differed from both the DTZ regional study and identified two separate housing markets for the county, with a ‘northern’ HMA (centred on Aylesbury) and a ‘southern’ HMA (including Wycombe and South Buckinghamshire). It also showed no relationship to the south of Wycombe towards either of the DTZ 2004 HMAs for Reading-M4 West and Inner West – Slough and Hounslow or the Berkshire SHMA 2007 West Central Berkshire HMA. Overall, this indicates a series of limited relationships between Wycombe and areas to the south.

Figure 4: Extract from Buckinghamshire SHMA (2008)

2.18 The SHMA showed how: ‘Wycombe appears to have the most self-contained travel to work pattern with 63.0% of working people living in the Borough also working in the local authority area. A further 9.6% work elsewhere in Buckinghamshire and a relatively modest 10.6% working in Greater London’. ‘In the case of Wycombe the data shows that 65.3% of people working in the area also live there - a further 11.2% living elsewhere in the county). The main other places people travel from include Greater London (4.2%), South Oxfordshire (3.4%) and Windsor & Maidenhead (2.9%)’.

Source: Buckinghamshire SHMA 2008 (Fordhams Research)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Geography of Housing Market Areas in England (National Housing and Planning Advisory Unit [NHPAU]; Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies [CURDS]; 2010) 2.19 A further HMA study was prepared by CURDS for NHPAU in 2010, and ‘aimed to produce the first rigorously defined geography of HMAs taking account of all the three strands of evidence: commuting, migration and house prices’ (Section 1 Introduction).

2.20 However, the study acknowledged the difficulties in establishing HMA geographies, (‘There are no easy answers to the construction of a geography of HMAs as there are both theoretical and practical challenges’; Section 1 introduction), but was able to demonstrate a structured approach to HMAs based on ‘strategic’ and ‘local’ HMAs.

2.21 For Wycombe, the study showed a HMA based on the town of High Wycombe itself although with relationships towards the south with Maidenhead and Slough.

Figure 5: Excerpt from Geography of Housing Market Areas in England (NHPAU/CURDS; 2010)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Aylesbury Vale SHMA Validation Study (GL Hearn; 2013) 2.22 This Validation study considered aspects of HMA evolution for Aylesbury Vale and this included the HMA relationship between Wycombe and Aylesbury Vale. It noted, with regard to Aylesbury: ‘2.22 A relationship between High Wycombe and Chiltern Districts to the south with Wendover and Aylesbury (albeit that this relationship appeared less strong than that between the north of the District and Milton Keynes)’. 3.11 To the south of Aylesbury Vale, Wycombe and South Bucks local authorities fall within the Reading Strategic HMA (except the Incknield ward of Wycombe which is in the Luton and Milton Keynes HMA).

Source: Aylesbury Vale SHMA Validation Study 2013 (GL Hearn)

Summary of Previous Housing Market Area Assessments 2.23 The various previous housing market area assessments considered the HMA for Wycombe and surrounding areas based on migration, travel to work and house price data at various times and at various spatial levels. Defining HMA’s is complex, as previously noted, and the timeline of various HMA studies highlights this: studies have come to different conclusions at different times regarding the spatial extent of the HMA which includes Wycombe District.

2.24 The various HMA studies show how links to the north, west and east appear to be relatively aligned. Wycombe has established relationships, particularly with Aylesbury although the degree of self- containment/separation has been subject to different conclusions. Relationships to the south are more complex; this is likely to be that these are more complex to understand and that relationships harder to define where there is a concentration of urban centres plus complex travel to work and migration patterns.

2.25 However, the importance of defining the HMA is, ultimately, the first relevant building block in the evidence base assembled to identify the objectively assessed needs for the SHMA. Therefore, for this SHMA, the study considered other relevant evidence to consider the HMA further.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Housing Market Area assessment (2013)

2.26 This study has reconsidered the Housing Market Area on the basis of the original evidence regarding migration, travel to work and house price data.

Migration Trends 2.27 Figure 6 shows a decreasing net migration loss in Wycombe District in every year from 2006 (-1,200 persons) up to 2010 when there was a net gain of 300 persons.

2.28 Overall, migration meant an annual average net loss of 400 people for Wycombe District, with migration within the UK accounting for a net loss of 3,000 people 2006-2010 and international migration a net gain of 900 people for the same period. The trend appears to be for a reduction in net out-migration to other parts of the UK and an increase in net international in-migration.

Figure 6: In-migration, Out-migration and Net Migration 2006-2010 to/from Wycombe District (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)

5 Year Annual 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Average IN-MIGRATION UK 8,500 8,800 8,000 7,600 8,400 41,300 8,300 International 900 1,000 1,300 1,500 1,400 6,100 1,200 TOTAL 9,400 9,800 9,300 9,100 9,800 47,400 9,500 OUT-MIGRATIONS UK 9,400 9,500 8,800 8,200 8,400 44,300 8,900 International 1,200 1,000 900 1,000 1,100 5,200 1,000 TOTAL 10,600 10,500 9,700 9,200 9,500 49,500 9,900 NET MIGRATION UK -900 -700 -800 -600 0 -3,000 -600 International -300 0 +400 +500 +300 +900 +200 TOTAL -1,200 -700 -400 -100 +300 -2,100 -400

2.29 Using NHS data, we can profile some details about the characteristics of migrant persons. Overall Figure 7 shows the key age cohort for net in-migrants gain were 0-15, 25-44 (indicating young families most likely from London) and 65+ (possibly people retiring for lifestyle reasons – for example, rural - or the high quality Care homes available). The key cohorts for net out-migrants were aged 16-24 years and 45-64. Most UK migrant gains were from London, with net out-migration mainly to the South East and South West.

Figure 7: Average Annual Net Migration within UK 2005-2010 by Age Group (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)

In-migration Out-migration Net migration

BY AGE 0-15 years 1,700 1,500 200 16-24 years 2,200 2,500 -300 25-44 years 4,000 3,600 400 45-64 years 1,200 1,300 -200 65+ years 500 400 100

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Migration Flows 2.30 Figure 8, Figure 9 and Figure 10 identify the migratory relationship with London, South East and South West local authorities in terms of the net migration to and from Wycombe District.

2.31 Net in-migration is from Hillingdon and Ealing (West London) plus South Bucks, Chiltern and Slough. Net out-migration is largely to Aylesbury Vale and South Oxfordshire, with smaller flows to Milton Keynes, Wokingham and Cornwall. The migration flow from London suggests pressures from housing costs in the capital and movement in search of more affordable accommodation. Local private landlords report increasing interest from London local authorities in accommodation for homeless applicants.

Figure 8: Local Authorities with the Highest Net Migration to and from Wycombe District over the period 2005-2010 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit)

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Figure 9: Average Annual Net Migration within UK 2005-2010 by Region (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding)

In-migration Out-migration Net migration

BY REGION North East 100 100 0 North West 230 310 -80 Yorkshire and Humberside 260 250 +10 East Midlands 330 410 -80 West Midlands 410 370 +40 Eastern 700 580 +120 London 1,880 1,170 +710 South East 3,450 3,720 -270 South West 620 850 -230 Wales 150 180 -30 TOTAL 8,130 7,940 +190

Figure 10: Top 10 Local Authorities with the Highest Net Migration to and from Wycombe District over the period 2005-2010 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit)

In-migrants moving Out-migrants moving TO Wycombe District FROM Wycombe District Hillingdon +1,310 Aylesbury Vale -1,430 Ealing +690 South Oxfordshire -610 South Bucks +670 Milton Keynes UA -160 Chiltern +430 Wokingham UA -150 Slough UA +380 Cornwall UA -150 Harrow +280 Oxford -140 Brent +250 Cherwell -130 Barnet +160 West Berkshire UA -120 Three Rivers +140 Birmingham -120 Hounslow +120 Bristol, City of UA -120

Defining Housing Market Areas for the Wycombe SHMA 2.32 In determining the Housing Market Area, ORS considers the local authority level migration data alongside more detailed migration data about moves between individual Census Output Areas. Whilst this data has not yet been released from the 2011 Census, the trend-based data about moves between local authority areas suggest that the geographic relationships that exist have remained stable over the period since 2001.

2.33 It is important to recognise that “many [housing market areas] will in practice cut across various local planning authority administrative boundaries” (draft National Planning Policy Guidance, section 2); therefore in establishing housing market areas, it is clearly important to consider relationships that exist below local planning authority administrative boundaries. Given that no other data source can provide information for small areas; the origin-destination data from the 2001 Census remains relevant and provides the only appropriate basis for the analysis at a detailed geographic level.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2.34 ORS methodology for the HMA analysis for the whole of Wycombe District and surrounding areas is similar to that used in Chapter 4 of CLGs ‘Geography of Housing Market Areas’ where migration and travel to work are combined to provide local housing market area based upon areas which display high levels of self- containment.

2.35 As part of the first stage of the analysis of local housing market areas, Figure 10 shows the initial inter- relationships between the urban areas within the sub-regions. Surrounding areas outside Wycombe District are also included for completeness.

Figure 11: Identifying the Links between Urban Centres in the Study Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 combined with DEFRA Classifications)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2.36 The analysis is further refined to establish the number of residents who both live and work in that urban centre. The colour code represents this as a proportion of all workers living in the area to indicate areas of self-containment, using the following bands: » Green = above 65% of employees living in the area also work in the area; » Amber = 50 to 65% of employees living in the area also work in the area; and » Red = below 50% of employees living in the area also work in the area.

2.37 The links that exist between the urban centres are also illustrated by the joining lines, with stronger links having heavier lines.

Figure 12: Identifying the Links between Urban Centres in the Study Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 combined with DEFRA Classifications)

2.38 Typically, local housing market areas are considered to exist in an area with at least 65% self-containment. As many identified settlements have relatively low levels of self-containment, we then combine them to form larger local housing markets areas. Whilst there is no definitive answer to the final groupings, it can be seen that the district of Wycombe almost all falls within the High Wycombe housing market. It is also the case that the Beaconsfield area (situated in South Buckinghamshire) also falls inside the High Wycombe housing market.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2.39 Figure 13 illustrates the outcome of the computer aided analysis following the process above. Solid black lines represent local authority boundaries. The map identifies that the Wycombe HMA is focussed on the district of Wycombe with some extension into Aylesbury (to the north) and Beaconsfield (to the east).

Figure 13: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Migration to and from Wycombe HMA within the UK 2.40 When we consider migration patterns, a total of 10,100 residents currently living in the Wycombe HMA had moved from another address in the HMA in the 12 months prior to the Census. However, in determining the proportion of movers within the HMA, it is necessary to consider the appropriate base for the calculation.

2.41 Figure 14 shows the number and proportion of movers based on where they previously lived, in terms of the local authority area and whether or not they previously lived within the Wycombe HMA that ORS has defined. It is apparent that the majority of movers (63.2%) previously lived within the Wycombe HMA.

Figure 14: Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) by Area of Residence (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)

Live in Wycombe HMA Previously lived in Previously lived Previously lived in… Wycombe HMA Elsewhere Number % of HMA Number % of HMA Wycombe 8,700 54.6% 4,500 28.2% Chiltern 700 4.4% 700 4.4% South Oxfordshire 300 1.8% 200 1.5% South Bucks 400 2.4% 400 2.6% Aylesbury Vale 0 0.0% 0 0.1% TOTAL 10,100 63.2%

2.42 The definition for a Housing Market Area sets out that it is the area “where most of those changing house without changing employment choose to stay”. Unfortunately, no data is available that relates migration with changes in employment circumstances; but given that most working people will live relatively close to their job, it is reasonable to assume that those migrants moving longer distances will tend to also change their place of work.

2.43 Figure 15 shows that 72.1% of Wycombe HMA residents that moved up to 40km in the 12 months prior to the Census previously lived in the HMA. Of course, the percentage depends on the distance threshold that is adopted, but migrants moving 40km or more are less to likely to not change their place of work.

Figure 15: Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) by Area of Residence (Source: 2001 Census of Population)

Live in Wycombe HMA Previously lived in Previously lived Previously lived in… Wycombe HMA Elsewhere Number % of moves Number % of moves Moves of up to 30km 10,100 77.7% 2,900 22.3% Moves of up to 40km 10,100 72.1% 3,900 27.9% Moves of up to 60km 10,100 64.8% 5,500 35.2% Moves of up to 80km 10,100 63.2% 5,900 36.8% Moves of up to 100km 10,100 61.3% 6,300 38.7%

2.44 It is also possible to consider migration in terms of movers that lived in the Wycombe HMA 12 months prior to the Census in the context of where they lived on Census day. Figure 16 shows that the majority of movers that previously lived in Wycombe HMA (63.3%) moved within the HMA.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 16: Area of Residence by Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)

Previously lived in Wycombe HMA Live in… Live in Wycombe HMA Live Elsewhere Number % of HMA Number % of HMA Wycombe 8,700 55.0% 4,500 28.1% Chiltern 700 4.3% 700 4.2% South Oxfordshire 200 1.5% 200 1.6% South Bucks 400 2.5% 400 2.8% Aylesbury Vale 0 0.0% 0 0.0% TOTAL 10,100 63.3%

2.45 Once again, when we consider those migrants unlikely to be changing employment (and hence moving shorter distances), Figure 17 shows that 73.0% of those that moved up to 40km in the 12 months prior to the Census previously lived in the HMA.

Figure 17: Area of Residence by Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) (Source: 2001 Census of Population)

Previously lived in Wycombe HMA Live in Live Live in… Wycombe HMA Elsewhere Number % of moves Number % of moves Moves of up to 30km 10,100 76.7% 3,100 23.3% Moves of up to 40km 10,100 73.0% 3,700 27.0% Moves of up to 60km 10,100 65.0% 5,400 35.0% Moves of up to 80km 10,100 63.3% 5,800 36.7% Moves of up to 100km 10,100 60.9% 6,500 39.1%

Travel to Work Patterns 2.46 Whilst housing market areas are defined predominantly in terms of the areas “where most of those changing house without changing employment choose to stay”, it is also relevant to consider them in the context of “...the geographical area in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live and work”. It is therefore important to consider the extent to which the resident population work in the area and the workplace population live in the area.

2.47 Figure 18 shows that almost two thirds (63.0%) of people that live in the Wycombe HMA also work in the HMA. Nevertheless, when the effect of the much larger and stronger London HMA is isolated (and those Wycombe HMA residents that commute to Greater London are excluded), almost three quarters (71.4%) of the remaining workers both live and work in Wycombe HMA.

Figure 18: Workplace location for Wycombe HMA residents (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)

Number of % of Wycombe HMA residents Wycombe HMA Including London Excluding London residents workers workers Work in Wycombe HMA 64,000 63.0% 71.4% Work elsewhere outside London 25,600 25.2% 28.6% Work in Greater London 12,000 11.8% - TOTAL 64,000 100.0% 100.0%

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2.48 Considering more recent travel to work data for Wycombe District (rather than Wycombe HMA) it is evident that only around three fifths of workers that live in the district also work in the district (59.5% in 2011 and 58.7% in 2010); so the housing market area must extend beyond the district boundaries as we have previously established.

2.49 When we consider travel to work patterns for those residents working outside the borough, the data shows that around a quarter of all workers (23.9% in 2011 and 25.5% in 2010) travel to London and other areas to the South and East of the district, which is equivalent to three-fifths of all out-commutes. In contrast, only a tenth commute to areas to the north or west of the district (10.3% in 2011 and 8.5% in 2010), only a fifth of all out-commutes. Therefore, as perhaps would be expected, commuters are three time more likely to head towards London than to areas that are further away from the capital.

Figure 19: Workplace location for Wycombe District residents 2010-11 (Source: Annual Population Survey 2010 and 2011)

Live in Wycombe District Work in… 2011 2010 Number Percentage Number Percentage WYCOMBE 50,221 59.5% 47,706 58.7% GREATER LONDON Outer West London 5,423 6.4% 7,120 8.8% Inner London 4,260 5.0% 3,771 4.6% Elsewhere in Outer London 0 0.0% 1,087 1.3% Sub-total 6,983 11.5% 11,978 14.8% AREAS TO THE SOUTH and EAST Chiltern 2,531 3.0% 1,512 1.9% South Buckinghamshire 3,603 4.3% 1,406 1.7% Slough 1,046 1.2% 2,278 2.8% Windsor and Maidenhead 2,943 3.5% 3,190 3.9% Bracknell Forest 366 0.4% 363 0.5% Sub-total 10,489 12.4% 8,749 10.8% AREAS TO THE NORTH and WEST Aylesbury Vale 1,514 1.8% 664 0.8% South Oxfordshire 2,623 3.1% 1,416 1.7% Elsewhere in Oxfordshire 2,206 2.7% 2,206 2.7% Reading 2,000 2.4% 2,607 3.2% Basingstoke 603 0.7% 0 0.0% Sub-total 8,686 10.3% 6,893 8.5% ELSEWHERE 5,313 6.3% 5,980 7.4% TOTAL 84,392 100.0% 81,306 100.0%

2.50 When we consider the workplace population for the Wycombe HMA (i.e. those people that work in the area), Figure 20 shows that over two thirds (69.0%) of people also live in the HMA. Given this context, it is apparent that the substantial majority of the population both live and work in the area, thereby satisfying the required HMA definition.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 20: Residence location for Wycombe HMA workers (Source: UK Census of Population 2001)

Number of % of Wycombe HMA Wycombe HMA workers workers

Lives in Wycombe HMA 64,000 69.0% Live elsewhere 28,700 31.0% TOTAL 92,700 100.0%

2.51 Once again, we can consider more recent data about travel to work flows. Whilst in-commuting flows from London itself are much lower than out-commuting flows, flows from the London direction (18.3% in 2011 and 17.2% in 2010) are almost double those from areas to the North and West (9.1% in 2011 and 9.3% in 2010). Given this context, it is clear that travel to work data for both inward and outward commuters shows that Wycombe district has far stronger links with areas towards London. In developing the Wycombe HMA, the evidence has already confirmed that the geographic area tends towards London; and this further data would suggest that any wider housing market area should probably continue this trend.

Figure 21: Residence location for Wycombe District workers 2010-11 (Source: Annual Population Survey 2010 and 2011)

Work in Wycombe District Live in… 2011 2010 Number Percentage Number Percentage WYCOMBE 50,221 66.4% 47,706 68.8% GREATER LONDON Outer West London 1,541 2.0% 999 1.4% Inner London 900 1.2% 722 1.0% Elsewhere in Outer London 703 0.9% 227 0.3% Sub-total 3,144 4.2% 1,948 2.8% AREAS TO THE SOUTH and EAST Chiltern 1,872 2.5% 3,054 4.4% South Buckinghamshire 2,362 3.1% 1,408 2.0% Slough 1,269 1.7% 1,299 1.9% Windsor and Maidenhead 3,570 4.7% 3,115 4.5% Bracknell Forest 166 0.2% 217 0.3% Wokingham 1,455 1.9% 872 1.3% Sub-total 10,694 14.1% 9,965 14.4% AREAS TO THE NORTH and WEST Milton Keynes 217 0.3% 238 0.3% Aylesbury Vale 2,940 3.9% 3,277 4.7% South Oxfordshire 2,510 3.3% 1,922 2.8% Elsewhere in Oxfordshire 972 1.3% 565 0.8% Reading 115 0.2% 0 0.0% West Berkshire 106 0.1% 444 0.6% Sub-total 6,860 9.1% 6,446 9.3% ELSEWHERE 4,731 6.3% 3,307 4.8% TOTAL 75,650 100.0% 69,372 100.0%

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Housing Market Area distribution by Local Authority Area 2.52 Figure 19 shows the distribution of the HMA resident population by local authority area, together with information about the remaining population in these areas. It is evident that the substantial majority of the Wycombe HMA population (over 80%) live in the Wycombe local authority area and almost all of the local authority’s population (99%) live in the identified HMA. The other local authority areas each account for less than 20% of the HMA’s population.

Figure 22: Resident Population in 2011 by Housing Market Area (as defined in the ORS SHMA) and Local Authority Area

Wycombe HMA Elsewhere % of LA Local Authority Area Number % of HMA Number Wycombe HMA Elsewhere RESIDENT POPULATION Wycombe 169,200 80.1% 2,400 98.6% 1.4% Chiltern 22,200 10.5% 70,500 23.9% 76.1% South Oxfordshire 7,600 3.6% 126,700 5.7% 94.3% South Bucks 12,100 5.7% 54,8000 18.1% 81.9% Aylesbury Vale 200 0.1% 173,900 0.1% 99.9% TOTAL 211,300 100% - -

2.53 When the distribution of land is considered, it is apparent that over two thirds of the Wycombe HMA falls within the Wycombe local authority area, with one third in other authority areas. Therefore, in planning the appropriate location of any new housing provision, Wycombe District Council will need to work in partnership with neighbouring authorities to ensure that housing is provided in the most appropriate location in the context of the entire HMA.

Figure 23: Distribution of Land by Housing Market Area (as defined in the ORS SHMA) and Local Authority Area

Wycombe HMA Elsewhere % of LA Local Authority Area Number % of HMA Number Wycombe HMA Elsewhere HECTARES Wycombe 28,600 67.9% 3,800 88.2% 11.8% Chiltern 6,200 14.7% 13,400 31.6% 68.4% South Oxfordshire 4.500 10.8% 63,300 6.7% 93.3% South Bucks 2,000 4.7% 12,200 13.9% 86.1% Aylesbury Vale 900 2.0% 89,400 0.9% 99.1% TOTAL 91,600 100.0% - - -

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Comparing the ORS Wycombe HMA analysis with CURDS 2.54 Figure 24 illustrates the outcome of the ORS 2013 analysis and compares these with the CURDS study to consider their alignment. This shows broad alignment in the north, west and east of the CURDS study but the CURDS area extends further south, and includes both Maidenhead and Slough.

2.55 Whilst both areas were derived using similar analysis of the 2001 Census data, the assumptions used differed. In particular, the ORS 2013 analysis considered migration within the context of those moves “where most of those changing house without changing employment choose to stay” whereas the CURDS analysis considered migration relating to all moves, regardless of employment circumstances. Furthermore, ORS has explicitly recognised Wycombe’s role in relation to the Greater London housing market and sought to isolate the impact of Greater London in the context of travel to work patterns.

Figure 24: Comparison of CURDS and ORS HMA analysis

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Comparing the Housing Market Area with the Broad Rental Market Area 2.56 The Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA) is a geographical area that has been determined by Government and is used by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) to determine the Local Housing Allowance rate (LHA), the allowance paid to Housing Benefit applicants. The BRMA area is based on an area where a person could reasonably be expected to live taking into account access to facilities and services for the purposes of health, education, recreation, personal banking and shopping.

2.57 When determining BRMAs the Rent Officer takes account of the distance of travel, by public and private transport, to and from these facilities and services. The boundaries of a BRMA do not have to match the boundaries of a local authority and BRMAs will often fall across more than one local authority area.

2.58 The Wycombe BRMA includes other parts of the Buckinghamshire, including Chesham and Gerrards Cross, although it is centred on High Wycombe (although excluding Princes Risborough). The relationship between the HMA and the BRMA has considerable alignment but is not definitively coterminous.

Figure 25: Comparing HMA with BRMA

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The Housing Market Area - Conclusion

2.59 Draft National Planning Policy Guidance (August 2013) states that ‘A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work’; which is consistent with earlier definitions which defined functional housing market areas to be ‘...the geographical area in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live and work and where those moving house without changing employment choose to stay’ (Maclennan et al, 1998).

2.60 On the basis of the available evidence, we would conclude that the functional Housing Market Area for High Wycombe is an area that is different to the Wycombe District local authority area, covering a slightly larger area as illustrated in Figure 26.

Figure 26: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

2.61 In considering the housing market area identified by the SHMA, we have established that: » Of those residents moving house without changing employment (i.e. moves of up to 40km), 72% of movers currently living in the HMA moved from another address inside the HMA; and 73% of movers that previously lived in the HMA stayed in the HMA; » 69% of people that work in the HMA also live in the HMA; and » 71% of workers that live in the HMA also work in the HMA (when those that commute to London are excluded), and 63% of all workers that live in the HMA also work in the HMA.

2.62 Taking these facts collectively, it is evident that the functional Housing Market Area identified for High Wycombe clearly satisfies the definitions. Nevertheless, these statistics are based on data from the 2001 Census (the only data source that provides the necessary geographic granularity) and it will be important to review the area once the relevant statistics are published from the 2011 Census.

2.63 The SHMA has also established that more than 80% of the Housing Market Area population lives in Wycombe district, and almost all (over 98%) of the population in Wycombe district live within the identified Housing Market Area. A recent Inspectors findings regarding HMA areas considered an approach, on the basis of evidence, of a District only basis towards the HMA (Bath & North East Somerset; September 2013) and said: ‘However, the NPPF’s clear advice (paragraph 159) is that SHMAs should be based on HMAs. If there is sufficient alignment between a SHMA and the main HMA relating to a district it would be unjustified to require a Council to undertake a SHMA covering a multi-authority area.’

2.64 Given the broad alignment between the main HMA and the district boundary, the SHMA has been prepared using a “best fit” approach to the HMA, taking the district boundary as an appropriate basis. Nevertheless, the Inspector also highlighted the following issues regarding how this position may develop on the basis of: » Newly available evidence: If the new data indicates a change in HMA boundaries sufficient to justify a revised approach, then this should be undertaken. » Positive partnership working: the local authority should still respond positively to partnership working with its neighbours on housing needs issues and with the Local Economic Partnership.

2.65 Therefore, to ensure the HMA continues to be relevant and up to date, following steps should be undertaken: » Consider the needs of other authorities in surrounding areas, their relationship with Wycombe and issues relating to the Duty to Co-operate (discussed further in Chapter 7). » The HMA analysis should be updated when further data is available as relationships and patterns can change over time.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Chapter 2 Summary » Historic Housing Market Area analysis for Wycombe, undertaken in previous SHMA studies, is opaque with different conclusions being drawn. This is, arguably, unsurprising; HMA areas are difficult to define and, given Wycombe’s complex spatial relationships, understandable. » This analysis of the Housing Market Areas has revisited historic data and considered the degree of connectivity and self-containment of housing markets surrounding Wycombe. Further, it has considered more recent demographic data and considered this in the light of the relationships between the local authorities within the HMA area. » The evidence shows that identified Housing Market Area clearly satisfies the relevant definitions, and reflects the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. » From this it can be seen that the functional HMA is not the same as the Wycombe District local authority but is a slightly larger area. However, the vast majority of the population is within the Wycombe District area itself. Consequently, this SHMA focuses upon the area formed by the administrative area served by Wycombe District Council. » It should be noted that no new data to undertake HMA analysis has been published since the 2001 Census at the required granularity. New Census data, which could inform a revised view, is not anticipated until 2014. Therefore, Wycombe District should consider updating the HMA analysis when new data is available.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

3. The Socio-economic Context An overview of the existing population

3.1 This chapter considers key features of the local population and the local economy and how this may be changing. Recent years have seen various, often rapid, changes, as population movements, demographic change and economic volatility work their way into local housing market transactions. Such change can have longer term implications and there may be a need for strategy and policy to adapt.

Local Population Characteristics

3.2 This section of the report considers the main characteristics of the local population and how these are changing.

3.3 Figure 27 below summarises the total population for the study area based on results from the 2001 and 2011 UK Census of Population. Wycombe District’s population has increased by 9,538 or 5.9% over the period, a slower rate than that for the South East region (+7.9%). The number of household residents increased by 5.8% (South East 8.2%) while the number of communal establishment residents increased by 10.3% (South East down 1.3%) (Note: communal establishments are defined in Para. 4.10). There has been a 6.9% increase in the number of households in Wycombe District in the period (compared with 8.2% for the South East), with average household sizes decreasing slightly from 2.51 to 2.49 persons.

Figure 27: Population in Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011. Notes: All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures may not sum due to rounding)

Persons Households Communal Local Authority Number of Household Number of Average establishment persons residents households household size residents Wycombe District 2001 162,106 159,670 2,436 63,504 2.51 2011 171,644 168,958 2,686 67,861 2.49 Change +9,538 +9,288 +250 +4,357 -0.02 Percentage Change Wycombe District +5.9% +5.8% +10.3% +6.9% - South East +7.9% +8.2% -1.3% +8.2% -

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Age Profile 3.4 Figure 28 below shows a comparison of the age structure for the population in Wycombe District against the South East and England while Figure 29 compares the change for Wycombe District between 2001 and 2011 Census.

Figure 28: Age Profiles for Wycombe District Compared with the South East and England (Source: UK Census of Population 2011)

Wycombe 2011 South East 2011 England 2011

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 90 overand

Figure 29: Ten Year Difference in Age Profiles for Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)

Wycombe 2001 Wycombe 2011

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

90 and over and 90

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Key Changes There are higher percentages of children relative to South East and England in all cohorts below 14 years. Children Between 2001 and 2011 the number of children in all cohorts below 14 has relatively decreased indicating lower numbers of local births and/or outward migration of families with children of school age. There is a similar percentage of 15-19 year olds relative to South East and England, and a relatively lower percentage of 20-24 year olds. Young Adults Between 2001 and 2011 there was an increase in the relative size of the 15-19 cohort and a decrease in that of the 20-24 year cohort. Wycombe District has higher percentages of adults aged 35-44 compared to South East and England, and relatively similar percentages in the 55-59 cohort. Adults However, between 2001 and 2011 only the 40-49 cohort has increased in relative size, all other cohorts have decreased. From age 60 cohort upwards, Wycombe District has significantly lower perentages of older people compared to South East and England in every cohort. Older People Wycombe District has seen a significant increase in the percentage of older people aged 60+ in all cohorts between 2001 and 2011.

Older People 3.5 Figures 24 and 25 (above) show how the population of older people is relatively low in Wycombe District compared with South East and England, but that the local population of older people has relatively increased between 2001 and 2011.

3.6 The 2001 Census indicates that 13% of people in Wycombe District had a limiting long-term illness (Figure 30:) compared to 16% in the South East (2001 Census)

3.7 Looking forward, a future increase in the need for support could occur as the current ‘middle aged’ population cohorts age and the ‘older’ persons’ population expands. However, care should be taken in view of the reasons for the growth in older population and recent relative longevity compared to past centuries; increased lifespan is often driven by better health plus associated improvements in quality of life. Therefore, the relative health of older people in 2001 is unlikely to be representative of people of the same age by 2035.

Figure 30: Limiting Long-term Illness Rates by Severity (Source: UK Census of Population 2011)

Day-to-day activities limited a lot Day-to-day activities limited a little

South East 7% 9%

Wycombe 5% 8%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Minority Ethnic Groups 3.8 The number of people from a minority ethnic group (39,778; 23.2%) has increased by 7.7% since 2001 Census (Figure 31:), a slightly larger increase than the South East and England.

3.9 There has been a change in the size of certain minority groups (Figure 31): the Asian population has increased significantly from 7.8% to 12% of the total population, while the Black group has increased from 2.4% to 3.5%. Only the increase in the White Other group (from 4.2% to 5.3%) is lower than the increase in the South East and England. Overall, Wycombe District has seen a greater relative increase in its BME population than the South East and England, from 16.4% to 24.1%.

Figure 31: Change of Population by Minority Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)

BME Group Wycombe District South East England White Other +1.1% +1.6% +1.7% Mixed +1.2% +0.9% +0.9% Asian +4.1% +2.9% +2.8% Black +1.1% +0.9% +1.2% Other +0.2% -0.2% +0.6% Total +7.7% +6.1% +7.2%

Figure 32: Proportion of Population by Minority Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)

2001 2011 14%

12%

10%

0% White Mixed Asian Black Other White Mixed Asian Black Other White Mixed Asian Black Other Other Other Other WYCOMBE SOUTH EAST ENGLAND

Migrant Workers

3.10 This section considers where migrant workers originate from and should be considered alongside details regarding wider migration given in Chapter 4.

3.11 New National Insurance registration numbers issued to workers provide data showing the location of migrant workers. Figure 33 shows the number of new National Insurance numbers to non-UK nationals issued between 2002 and 2011. This highlights a growth in the number of migrants after 2004 when

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migration rules from Eastern Europe were relaxed. In addition, they show that the impact of two recessions has not acted to depress international migration for work to Wycombe District (with the exception of 2009/10 and to some extent 2010/11).

Figure 33: New National Insurance Registrations of Non Figure 34: New National Insurance Registrations of Non-UK UK Nationals in Wycombe District Nationals in Wycombe District2002-2011 by Country of (Source: DWP. Notes: All figures rounded. Origin (Source: DWP) Figures may not sum due to rounding)

Year Wycombe District Poland 2,450 2002/03 870 Pakistan 1,360 India 2003/04 920 930 South Africa 750 2004/05 1,240 Zimbabwe 350 2005/06 1,500 Australia 350 2006/07 1,430 France 310 2007/08 1,750 Germany 280 2008/09 1,520 Slovak Rep 220 2009/10 1,010 USA 220 2010/11 1,260 Italy 210 Rep of Ireland 210 5-year total 11,500 2006-2011 Hungary 200 5-year average 2,300 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Number of NI Registrations 3.12 Figure 34 shows that between 2002 and 2011 a significant proportion of all new National Insurance registrations were issued to migrants from Poland.

3.13 Many migrants came from within the EU (c.55%), and it should also be noted that migration restrictions for EU citizens of Romania and Bulgaria are to be lifted from 2014 and increased in-migration from these countries to the UK is predicted by various commentators. However, the peak in migration from 2004 to 2009 appears to relate to the accession to the EU of 10 countries with a larger overall population than that of Bulgaria and Romania, so immigration from these countries is likely to be less significant.

3.14 Other non-UK migrants (c.45%) came from the Indian sub-continent and Africa; levels may be affected by the introduction in April 2011 of Government limits on the number of non-EU migrants to the UK. International migration to Wycombe District seems likely to continue, but future levels are difficult to predict.

3.15 Note: figures relate only to employees who have received new National Insurance numbers and do not include any of their dependants. New NI numbers are issued to individuals, not jobs, so they will be issued to address of residence, not workplace. Figures exclude those leaving the UK.

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The Local Economy

Local Employment 3.16 Figure 35 shows the change in those economically active over the last 10 years. The economically active population has increased overall (+6,492; +7.7%), although this has been driven by a relatively steep rise in part time and self-employed working. In percentage terms the increase in the number of unemployed has been highest (+1,517; +60.5%). The number of full time workers has decreased slightly (-1,514; -2.8%).

3.17 There has been a small decrease overall in the economically inactive population in Wycombe District (-168; -0.5%). The key change is a decrease in the number of those looking after home or family (-2,300; -27.3%). The Retired group has increased (+1,631; 11.6%) as has the number of inactive students (+1,437; 29.4%). The total number of students has increased (+2,320; 27.4%).

Figure 35: Economic Activity/Inactivity in Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011. Notes: All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures may not sum due to rounding)

2001 2011 Change % Change

Economically Active

Employee: Full-time 53,238 51,724 -1,514 -2.8% Employee: Part-time 13,335 16,001 2,666 +20.0% Self-employed 12,168 15,108 2,940 +24.2% Unemployed 2,506 4,023 1,517 +60.5% Full-time student 3,576 4,459 883 +24.7%

Total Economically Active 84,823 91,315 6,492 +7.7% Economically Inactive

Retired 14,082 15,713 1,631 +11.6% Students 4,894 6,331 1,437 +29.4%

Looking after home or family 8,438 6,138 -2,300 -27.3%

Long-term sick or disabled 2,769 2,434 -335 -12.1%

Other 2,858 2,257 -601 -21.0% Total Economically Inactive 33,041 32,873 -168 -0.5%

3.18 Figure 35 shows the long-term unemployment rate in Wycombe District; while Wycombe District’s rate is close to that for the South East, it is significantly lower than for England. Data from recent years (2008 onwards) reflects the state of the wider national economy: employment has improved slightly from 2009, although this is now levelling off.

3.19 However the decline in unemployment over recent years may not entirely reflect the strength of the local economy; many working age persons not in jobs are not eligible for, or do not claim, unemployment benefit.

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Figure 36: Unemployment Rate for Working Age Population for Wycombe District: 1993-2011 (Source: DWP Claimant Count. Note: Data relates to May and October of each year)

Wycombe South East England 9%

8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Percentage of Working Age Population Age Working of Percentage 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3.20 Incapacity benefit (IB) is more generous than unemployment benefit and until recently placed less onus on the individual to seek a job. However, Figure 36 shows that although Wycombe District has historically higher numbers on IB than the South East and England, the Wycombe District level is now lower (2012).

3.21 Since 2008 the number of IB claimants has been falling at a rapid rate, possibly owing to increased difficulty in claiming this benefit. Claimant levels were higher than for England as a whole until 2011/12 when Wycombe District fell below the England and South East levels.

Figure 37: Incapacity Benefit Claims by Working Age persons by Local Authority 2000-2011 (Source: DWP. Note: Data relates to May of each year)

Wycombe South East England

20%

10%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Change relative to May 2000 May to relative Change -50%

-60%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Occupation and Earnings 3.22 The Wycombe District occupation profile (Figure 38) shows how the area has seen growth in Professional occupations (up 6.7%) which marginally exceeds that for England and the South East. There has also been an increase in the Caring, Leisure and Other Service occupations.

3.23 There has been a decrease in those in Managerial positions (-6.7%). This may reflect the increasing numbers in self-employment (shown previously in Figure 4) and wider national trends in how people work. There has also been a decrease in Administrative occupations (-2.6%).

Figure 38: Proportion of Employees by Occupation 2011 and change 2001-11 (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)

Wycombe South East England Managers, directors and 14.36 -6.7 12.3 -5.2 senior officials 10.9 -4.4 19.39 +6.7 Professional occupations 18.7 +6.6 17.5 +6.3 Associate professional and 15.04 +0.1 13.8 -0.8 technical occupations 12.8 -1.0 Administrative and 11.12 -2.6 11.5 -2.4 secretarial occupations 11.5 -1.9 10.71 0.1 Skilled trades occupations 11.1 +0.1 11.4 -0.2 Caring, leisure and 8.23 +2.3 9.3 +2.4 other service occupations 9.3 +2.4 Customer service and 7.81 +1.5 7.9 +0.5 sales occupations 8.4 +0.8 Process, plant and 5.43 -0.7 5.7 -0.6 machine operatives 7.2 -1.2 7.91 -0.6 Elementary occupations 9.7 -0.8 11.1 -0.7 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% -8% -3% 2% 7% Percentage of Residents in Employment 2011 Net Change 2001-11 3.24 When considering local earnings, it is possible to consider the income of those people that live in the area (as used above as a basis for occupation) or alternatively to consider the income for local jobs, which will include at least some employees that commute into the area to work. Given that the workplace population (i.e. local employees) are not necessarily residents, the results will inevitably differ.

3.25 The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) record both measures for all local authorities and can show how relative incomes have changed over time. Figure 39 shows the comparisons for median gross annual earnings for 2011 and compares them with adjacent areas.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 39: Median Gross Annual Earnings for Employees and Residents in Wycombe District, by All Employees and Full-time Employees (Source: ASHE 2012)

Employment Wycombe Aylesbury Reading Oxford South East England Status District

Residents (living in area) All employees £25,987 £22,949 £25,559 £22,725 £24,000 £21,794 Full-time employees £32,001 £29,988 £31,522 £26,954 £29,491 £26,804 Employees (working in area) All employees £24,563 £21,906 £26,390 £24,166 £22,928 £21,790 Full-time employees £28,864 £27,820 £31,640 £28,969 £28,181 £26,800

3.26 The results show that Wycombe District residents earn higher incomes compared with those who only work in Wycombe District and live elsewhere. Wycombe District incomes (residents and employees) are higher for all employees than the averages for the South East and England. Compared with neighbouring areas, employees commuting to Reading earn significantly more that commuters to Wycombe District, and full time employees commuting to Oxford earn slightly more. However, Wycombe District residents working in Wycombe District earn more than residents of neighbouring areas.

Industry 3.27 Figure 40 shows the proportion of employees resident in each local authority area by industry. Overall, Wycombe District has a diverse local economy: » Wholesale and retail is, relatively, the largest employment sector, followed by Education and Health and Social Work; » The Information and Communications sector and the Professional, Scientific and Technical sector are larger in Wycombe District than in the South East or England.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 40: Proportion of Employees by Industry 2011 for Wycombe District, South East and England (Source: UK Census of Population 2011)

Wycombe South East England

8.9 Manufacturing 7.2 8.8 7.2 Construction 8.0 7.7 17.2 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles 15.6 15.9 4.5 Transport and storage 5.2 5.0 4.5 Accommodation and food service activities 5.0 5.6 7.7 Information and communication 5.5 4.1 3.1 Financial and insurance activities 4.5 4.4 1.5 Real estate activities 1.4 1.5 9.0 Professional, scientific and technical activities 7.5 6.7 5.0 Administrative and support service activities 5.2 4.9 5.0 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 6.0 5.9 9.8 Education 10.1 9.9 9.5 Human health and social work activities 11.6 12.4 7.0 Other 7.2 7.2

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Percentage of Residents in Employment 2011 Students 3.28 Students can be a key market sector and changes in tenure or location patterns can have an impact in local markets. The presence of Buckinghamshire New University (BNU) suggests that students are a particular potential market driver in the localised High Wycombe housing market. However, it should be noted that some students may be living in Wycombe although attending educational establishments outside the district.

3.29 Many English universities and further education establishments have significant plans for expansion. It should be noted that current national Education policy is based on full time student numbers remaining close to present levels. However, discussions with BNU highlight an expectation of some growth in part time and international student numbers.

3.30 Nationally, the introduction of tuition fees appeared to have an impact on student applications; in 2012, numbers were down 6.6% in 2012 compared to 2011 (Source: UCAS). However, demand for places still outstripped supply (188,000 more applications than acceptances in 2012). Indications are that application rates have increased for 2013 for younger age cohorts (Source: UCAS) but the full data on numbers is not yet available. Long term trends, therefore, remain unclear.

3.31 The total number of students makes up 8.7% of the Wycombe District population (10,790). Buckinghamshire New University (BNU) High Wycombe campus caters for over 6,000 students, mostly from

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the UK or EU; one third are recruited locally, about 5% are international. BNU report that full time student numbers will remain at current levels for the foreseeable future.

3.32 Using Census data, student distribution within Wycombe District is shown in Figure 41. Overall, numbers of students are concentrated within High Wycombe.

Figure 41: Student population distribution by (%) of Ward population (Source: Census 2011)

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3.33 Figure 42 shows the concentration of students in High Wycombe in more detail. Some wards (for example, Abbey and Disraeli) have output areas where over 50% of the local population are students. Although high, this is not unusual - to give perspective, traditional University towns can have student areas where up to 90% of the working age population are students.

3.34 The student population and the lack of 100% student accommodation capacity provided by the universities means that student numbers will continue to act as a driver in the local Private Rented Sector, especially in those urban areas close to the campus. The demand also acts as a driver on the conversion of stock to HMOs. HMO’s are primarily located in the urban area of High Wycombe (especially Wards of Oakridge & Castlefield, Abbey and Terriers and Amersham Hill). Chapter 4 (see paragraph 4.5 et seq.) shows how the number of HMOs has increased by 698 to 1,773 homes (a rise of 64.9%) between 2001 and 2011. However, most of this increase has been in non-student households (+643; +78.1% see para 4.7/Figure 48). The increase indicates, therefore, that the rising demand for HMO accommodation (and indirectly for the conversion of self-contained stock to HMO) is from non-student lower income households (possibly responding to Benefit Reform) rather than expanding demand from students.

Figure 42: Student population distribution in High Wycombe (Source: Census 2011)

3.35 BNU’s student population comprises about 70% full time and 30% part time students (the average age is 26 years; this is because the University ‘offer’ includes nursing courses and these tend to attract mature students). » Part time students mainly live at home and are not offered accommodation via BNU, so any growth in these student numbers is unlikely to impact on the local housing market.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

» Full time students, (c. 26% / 1,125) live in either BNU halls or in private rented accommodation arranged under BNU’s Head Tenancy Scheme.

3.36 BNU aims to be able to house all full time first year students in halls of residence as this is what they prefer. BNU currently has 744 units in four blocks of student accommodation, available to first year undergraduates who live more than 25 miles from High Wycombe and international students. It is developing Hughenden Student Village with a further 103 rooms due for completion in October 2014, and aspirations for further development by October 2015 (subject to viability and finance availability).

3.37 BNU also works with private landlords to ensure rental properties for students. Under its Head Tenancy Scheme it rents properties from private landlords and sub-lets them to students; about 370 students are housed in this way. This gives students more confidence as BNU is their landlord and the private landlords do not have to deal with debts or welfare/lifestyle issues.

Students: Stakeholders report strong rental demand from students, but note that some landlords will not let to them.

3.38 About 850 students also live in private rented accommodation, primarily second and third year students who approach estate agents directly. The agents report that there is strong demand from students for private rented accommodation in High Wycombe, and properties are let quickly if priced realistically, although some landlords will not take students. BNU offers advice and support to students and also offers a free advertising service to landlords looking to let properties. BNU insists on such properties being accredited with WDC (170 properties have been accredited) and works with the Environmental Health team to improve the standard of accommodation available to students. In response to demand, some commercial properties in High Wycombe town centre are being converted to student accommodation. Any changes to the private rented sector (for example, if supply were to reduce due to benefit reform) could increase demand for remaining stock from students.

Figure 43: Student Tenure

Student tenure Existing supply New supply to 2014

Halls of residence 744 103 Head Tenancy Scheme 370 Private rent 850

3.39 BNU believes that there will be an ongoing need for good quality student accommodation in High Wycombe which needs to be provided from a variety of sources including halls of residence, the Head Tenancy Scheme and individual arrangements with private landlords.

3.40 Overall, therefore, the student housing market is well established although full time student demand is unlikely to grow significantly in future years. Further, the student market seems unlikely to have significant impact on the wider housing market area beyond High Wycombe. There are localised issues in certain Wards in High Wycombe where the demand from students could have a continued impact on conversion of existing stock to either self-contained or shared accommodation.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Impact of Welfare Reform on the Housing Market

3.41 This section considers the Private Rented Sector and how this might change as a result of wider benefit reform, including Housing Benefit. It is structured as follows: » Benefit Reform and the Private Rented Sector (PRS) - Overview » Relationship between PRS and Housing Benefit in Wycombe District » Benefit Reform and Specific Housing Benefit Changes » Potential Impact of Benefit Reform on the PRS

3.42 Housing Benefit paid to private rented sector tenants has allowed the sector to house increasing numbers of households on low incomes and/or in housing need (see Chapter 4). Arguably, some existing private rented stock has become in effect part of the “affordable housing” stock. The scale of this market activity has local variations in terms of availability, cost of renting, and the size of social rented and private rented stock in an area.

3.43 However, the cost to the Treasury is significant and Housing Benefit Reform is in hand, part of which is to reduce the overall cost. The Coalition Government has identified two key problems with the current overall benefits system: » work incentives are poor, and » the system is too complex.

3.44 As a result, new legislation has been introduced. Key changes relevant to the SHMA include: » Welfare Reform Act 2012: the Act legislates for the biggest change to the welfare system for over 60 years, including; » Introduction of Universal Credit from 2013: part of the Welfare Reform Act 2012 introduces a new single payment for people who are looking for work or on a low income; » Changes to Housing Benefit with the aims of bringing stability to the market and improving incentives to work » Localism Act 2011: introducing flexible tenancies with changes to assured tenancies

Rent arrears: Registered Providers are concerned about introduction of Universal Credit and payment direct to tenants. This is leading to increasing arrears and influencing their assumptions about future revenue streams and assumptions regarding new scheme viability. Some providers have taken on extra staff to deal with benefit advice etc. Respondents felt that the nature of the relationship with tenants will change as they take on this money advice role.

Specific Changes to Housing Benefit Calculation of Local Housing Allowances

3.45 Local housing allowance (LHA) rates are now capped and set at the 30th percentile of local rents (previously the 50th percentile). Figure 44 shows the local housing allowance rates for March 2011 (based on the 50th percentile) alongside the 30th percentile rents from December 2011 which set the LHA limit. Wycombe District falls mainly within the Chilterns BRMA; Princes Risborough is within the Aylesbury BRMA.

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3.46 The change from using the 50th percentile to the lower 30th percentile for calculating local housing allowance rates may have an impact on the Wycombe sub-region as the market adjusts and private rent levels change.

Figure 44: Weekly Local Housing Allowance Thresholds for Broad Rental Market Areas in Wycombe District – March 2011 and July 2013 (Source: LHA Direct)

Weekly Rent Aylesbury BRMA Chilterns BRMA Reading BRMA £ 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed March 2011 LHA 121.15 155.77 201.92 305.77 138.46 178.85 225.00 385.96 150.00 184.62 207.69 311.54 50th percentile July 2013 LHA 121.15 150.00 183.46 288.46 138.46 178.85 225.00 357.69 150.00 184.62 211.15 300.00 30th percentile

Impact of Benefit Reform Registered Providers report an increase in household migration from London as a result of benefit reforms displacing demand to areas that are relatively more affordable. Registered Providers have significant concerns about the longer term impact of benefit reforms and this is making them more prudent on current and future development assumptions.

Under-occupation – Social Tenants

3.47 The Government estimates that nearly a third of working-age social housing tenants on housing benefit are living in accommodation which is too big for their needs. The Act includes provision for reducing the benefit paid to social housing tenants of working age if they are assessed as having spare room(s). In England, the policy is estimated to affect 660,000 households, who will lose £14 a week on average. £430 million of savings are forecast to result.

Example: a working age couple with two adult children occupy a 3 bed social rented property and receive housing benefit. If the adult children move out of the house, the couple will technically only require a 1 bed dwelling. The policy impact is that they will no longer receive housing benefit for a 3 bedroom property but a 1 bed. They will either: » be required to pay the balance of rent from their own funds, o, » move to a small dwelling and continue to receive housing benefit covering the full rent.

3.48 There are a range of possible implications arising from such a change (Note: we have excluded the ethical implications of the change): » More households may downsize from family sized social rented dwellings into smaller units, if available; » Some larger properties may become available for overcrowded households with children; » There may be or may not be a corresponding ‘balancing effect’, as larger homes and smaller homes are vacated; » Adult children may subsidise their parents to allow them to remain in the larger family home; » Rent arrears levels may rise, leading to increased numbers of evictions.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Spare Room Subsidy: Registered Providers have concerns about this. They highlight how tenants are responding by either wanting to downsize or being prepared to pay. Registered Providers with newer stock have less of a problem with under-occupation because there have been fewer household changes.

Extending the Limit for a Single Person Receiving a Bedsit Allowance to 35 Years of Age

3.49 Any single person aged 34 years or younger is entitled to only the Shared Accommodation Rate (SAR) LHA, rather than the allowance for a self-contained dwelling. The SAR LHA will enable the single person only to occupy a part of a dwelling as part of a shared household.

3.50 A major impact of this change is likely to be a rise in the demand for shared accommodation within HMOs. More single persons will need to share accommodation for longer. More of the existing housing stock seems likely to be converted into HMOs. HMO data (see Chapter 4) indicates a significant increase in the number of HMOs within Wycombe District 2001-11 and benefit changes seem likely to drive further conversions.

Non-dependants

3.51 Deductions for non-dependants are now up rated on the basis of prices, which could increase pressure for non-dependants to move out.

Example: a pensioner couple with two adult children occupy a 3 bed social rented property and receive housing benefit. Increased deductions for non-dependants now rise on the basis of prices, hence reducing the amount of housing benefit received by this household. If the adult children move out of the house, the couple will be able to remain in their dwelling and continue to receive housing benefit covering the full rent, with no deductions for under-occupation because they are not working age.

3.52 The policy impact is that the financial incentive is for the adult children of pensioner couples to leave home and seek their own independent accommodation, meaning the rate of household formation could rise, leaving the pensioner parents under-occupying their accommodation.

3.53 Universal Credit also means non-dependant deductions will no longer be based on earnings and there will be a flat rate deduction of £68 per month. Further, it will for the first time apply to 21-24 year olds claiming Jobseekers Allowance. As JSA for 21-24 year olds is lower than for older claimants, this group will find it very difficult to contribute towards the rent of the household.

Example: a working age couple with two adult children aged 24 or under claiming JSA occupy a 3 bed social rented property and receive housing benefit. The introduction of deductions for non- dependants aged 21-24, at a rate of £68 per month, will significantly reduce the amount of housing benefit received by this household. The adult children will have the choice of making a contribution to the rent out of their JSA payment of £56.80 a week or moving out and claiming housing benefit in their own right. If the adult children moved out, their parents would then have their housing benefit reduced because they now have spare rooms.

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Capping of Total Household Benefits at £500 per Week 3.54 The total level of benefit received by any household is to be capped at £500 per week for a family, £350 for a single person with no children. The amount of Housing Benefit any household can receive will be assessed after any Jobseeker’s Allowance, Income Support, Council Tax Benefit, Child Tax Credit and Child Benefit have been deducted from the cap

Potential Impact of Benefit Reform on the Private Rented Sector 3.55 Changes to the LHA may mean considerable changes in the supply of dwellings available for households who require financial support in the private rented sector. The changes are not likely to reduce the number of households seeking Affordable Rent/Social Rent housing. However, it may increase the demand on local authorities to find housing solutions for these households.

3.56 The ability of authorities to meet housing need is dependent upon many issues. For example, how will private landlords respond over time? Will they be less likely to accept those households in receipt of housing benefit at the new reduced levels? Possible scenarios include: » Market rent levels fall as landlords accept lower rent on their properties. This seems unlikely given recent press reports regarding Landlord responses to reform. » If the new rent thresholds are too low then some landlords may simply not be willing to accept housing benefit dependent households. » This in turn may see house prices and rents fall as more housing becomes available to buy or rent, so more households may be able to meet their housing requirements in the open market.

3.57 However, if landlords are not prepared to accept households in receipt of housing benefit, where will these households live? Social housing has limited supply. The number of homelessness presentations may increase and overcrowding might rise. The percentage of disposable income paid to rent may rise in households seeking housing in the private sector.

Stakeholder views on the Private rented sector and Housing Benefit: There is still strong demand from working people so private landlords have no incentive to house people on Housing Benefit (although note other comment on London boroughs offering high rents for homeless applicants). About 50% of landlords present at the Landlords’ Forum said they would accept Housing Benefit tenants, and they would take more if Housing Benefit was paid to them direct. Taking Housing Benefit tenants is seen as a risk; many do not have a deposit, and the rent is not guaranteed by the District Council. Administration is also an issue; if benefit payments stop it takes several weeks to re-establish, and the landlords often do not find out until they see their bank statement. Some insurance companies will not insure private rent properties if the tenants on HB.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Chapter 3 Summary Population The Wycombe District population has increased 9,538 or 5.9% between 2001 and 2011, increasing at a slower rate than for the South East region (+634,110 or 7.9%). There has been a 6.9% increase in the number of households in that period, compared with 8.2% for the South East. Age Wycombe District has higher percentages of children relative to the South East and England in all age cohorts. Wycombe District has significantly lower relative numbers of older people compared to South East and England in every cohort, although the local population of older people increased significantly between 2001 and 2011. Black and Minority Ethnic Groups The population of people from a minority ethnic group (39,778; 23.2%) has increased by 7.72% since 2001, a slightly larger increase than the South East and England. There are significant changes within certain minority groups: the Asian population has increased by half from 7.8% to 12%, while Black group had increased from 2.4% to 3.5%. Wycombe District has also seen a growth in the number of migrants since 2004 when EU migration rules were relaxed. The subsequent impact of two recessions has not acted to depress international migration. Overall, continued international migration to Wycombe District seems likely. Local Economy Wycombe District’s economically active population has increased overall (+6,492; +7.7%), although this has been driven by a rise in part time and self-employed working. There has been a small decrease overall in the economically inactive population in Wycombe District (-168; -0.5%). Long-term unemployment rates in Wycombe District are close to that for the South East, but lower than that for England. Since 2008 the number of Incapacity Benefit claimants has been falling at a rapid rate. Wycombe District’s occupation profile shows growth in Professional occupations (up 6.7%) since 2001 which marginally exceeds that for England and the South East. Wycombe District residents earn higher incomes than those who only work in Wycombe District and live elsewhere. Wycombe District incomes (residents and employees) are higher for all employees than those for the South East and England. Students Students have a limited impact on Wycombe District’s housing market. Impact of Welfare Reform The potential impact of Benefit Reform on the Private Rented Sector is currently unknown. Potentially, there could be reduced household formation rates which may reduce the number of households seeking affordable housing. However, some changes in the LHA could see formation rates rise. The supply of private rented dwellings may change significantly, especially for households on lower incomes.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

The total number of housing benefit claimants in the private rented sector has risen in the last two years, whether this trend continues will depend on whether landlords are willing to accept benefit claimants as tenants. Alternatively, where landlords do not accept the lower rents, more properties may return to ‘pure’ market housing, out of reach for households on Housing Benefit. Local authorities may be pressed to find housing solutions for increasing demand from households who cannot resolve their own needs - homelessness presentations and overcrowding may also rise further.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

4. Current Housing Stock An overview of the existing housing stock

Existing Housing Stock

4.1 A key SHMA task is to understand the current housing offer to residents, including by type, character, age, and location. The stock on offer affects choices for renters, purchasers and investors.

Dwelling Type 4.2 Figure 45 shows stock distribution by type across the study area. Key points to note include: » Wycombe District has a similar dwelling type profile to the South East and England, with more detached and semi-detached houses and fewer terraced houses and flats; » Wycombe District, the South East and England have similar proportions of bungalows.

Figure 45: Proportion of Dwelling Type by Area (Source: Valuation Office Agency, August 2012)

Wycombe South East England

35%

30% 29% 27% 25% 25% 23% 25% 22% 22% 21% 22% 19% 20% 18% 16% 15% 11% 10% 10% 10%

0% Detached Semi-detached Terraced Bungalow Flat/Maisonette House

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Dwelling Characteristics 4.3 Dwelling characteristics show that bedroom numbers as a proportion of the overall stock vary (see Figure 46). There is a spread of bedroom numbers with 3 bedrooms predominating. Most homes have a floor area of 50-149 sqm. 98.2% of homes have a garage or private driveway, with only 1.8% reliant on on-street parking. Wycombe District has slightly more second home ownership than the South East and England.

Figure 46: Dwelling Characteristics (Source for Bedrooms, Area and Parking: Valuation Office Agency, September 2010; Second Homes: UK Census of Population 2011)

50% 47.4% 50% 42.0% 40% 40% 31.1% 30% 22.7% 30%

20% 14.7% 20% 14.0% 11.1% 8.2% 10% 4.1% 10% 4.7% 0% 0% 1-bed 2-beds 3-beds 4-beds 5-beds+ <50 sqm 50-99 sqm 100-149 150-199 200+ sqm

sqm sqm

80% 77.5% 6% 70% 5% 4.3% 4.2% 60% 3.9% 50% 4% 40% 3% 30% 1.8% 20.7% 2% 1.7% 1.6% 20% 1% 10% 1.8% 0% 0% Garage Private driveway On-street parking Second address in UK Second address outside UK

Wycombe South East England

Dwelling Age and Condition 4.4 Figure 47 below shows the age of housing stock in Wycombe District. The age of housing stock is a usually strong factor in determining stock condition. Just under half of Wycombe District stock was built after 1965. However, c.8% is pre 20th century, and 20% of homes have been developed since 1993.

Figure 47: Dwelling Age by Area (Source: Valuation Office Agency, August 2012)

Pre 1900 1900-18 1919-29 1930-39 1945-54 1955-64 1965-72 1973-82 1983-92 1993-99 2000 or later

Wycombe District 8 4 5 9 9 16 16 13 9 4 7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Houses in Multiple Occupation 4.5 Not all private rented stock consists of self-contained dwellings occupied by a single household. Many households occupy houses in multiple occupation (HMOs). An HMO is currently defined by the Housing Act 2004 as: » an entire house or flat which is let to three or more tenants who form two or more households and who share a kitchen, bathroom or toilet; » a house which has been converted entirely into bedsits or other non-self-contained accommodation and which is let to three or more tenants who form two or more households and who share kitchen, bathroom or toilet facilities; » a converted house which contains one or more flats which are not wholly self-contained (i.e. the flat does not contain within it a kitchen, bathroom and toilet) and which is occupied by three or more tenants who form two or more households; and » a building which is converted entirely into self-contained flats if the conversion did not meet the standards of the 1991 Building Regulations and more than one-third of the flats are let on short- term tenancies.

4.6 The accommodation must be used as the tenants’ only or main residence and it should be used solely or mainly to house people. Properties let to students and migrant workers are treated as their only or main residence.

4.7 HMOs make an important contribution to the private rented sector by providing housing for specific groups/households, particularly for households on lower incomes. This classification of housing must be considered alongside accommodation for people who share housing and housing costs in order to afford self-contained market housing. Figure 48 identifies the number of HMOs as defined above which are occupied by students and other households.

Figure 48: Houses in Multiple Occupation (Source: Census 2001/2011)

Other households Students Total in PRS Household Composition 2001 252 823 1,075 2011 307 1,466 1,773 55 643 698 Change (%) +21.8% +78.1% +64.9%

4.8 Using Census information between 2001 and 2011, it can be seen that the number of HMOs has increased by 698 to 1,773 homes (a rise of 64.9%). Most of the increase has been in non-student households (+643; +78.1%) especially those on lower income. These households are vulnerable to the impact of Welfare Reform and the response of landlords to this is not yet known. The reforms, therefore, indicates a driver in the housing market that is likely to continue given pressures within the sector as Benefit Reform continues to roll out (see also Chapter 3).

4.9 HMO’s are primarily located in the urban area of High Wycombe (especially Wards of Oakridge & Castlefield, Abby and Terriers and Amersham Hill). Interestingly, Wycombe District also has HMO’s in rural wards.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 49: Houses in Multiple Occupation by Ward (Source: Census 2001/2011)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Overcrowding 4.10 Overcrowding across all household types has deteriorated in the years between Census 2001-11 (+1.8%) and this is relatively worse than the South East. For certain household types, this deterioration has been at a faster rate than for others; for example, lone parent households with dependent children (+8.7%), couples (both with dependent and non-dependent children) and other (which includes students and those aged 65+). Overcrowding amongst one person households has improved slightly over the period (-0.4%).

Figure 50: Proportion of overcrowded households 2011 and change 2001-11 for Wycombe and South East (Note: overcrowded households are considered to have an occupancy rating of -1 or less. Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)

Wyco Wycombe Net South East South East Net mbe 2011 Change 2001 2011 Change 2001 One person household 8.8% 8.4% -0.4% 8.4% 8.6% +0.2% Aged 65 and over 6.8% 4.3% -2.5% 5.9% 4.7% -1.3% Other 10.5% 11.4% +0.9% 10.9% 11.6% +0.8% One family only 4.3% 5.9% +1.6% 3.9% 5.4% +1.5% All aged 65 and over 1.1% 0.6% -0.5% 0.9% 0.6% -0.3% Married or same-sex civil partnership couple: No 1.2% 1.3% +0.1% 1.0% 1.4% +0.4% children Married or same-sex civil partnership couple: 6.3% 6.9% +0.6% 4.9% 6.2% +1.3% Dependent children Married or same-sex civil partnership couple: All 3.1% 2.9% -0.2% 2.6% 2.7% +0.1% children non-dependent Cohabiting couple: No children 4.3% 7.5% +3.2% 4.3% 5.9% +1.5% Cohabiting couple: Dependent children 7.9% 12.4% +4.5% 8.3% 11.2% +2.9% Cohabiting couple: All children non-dependent 1.4% 6.4% +5.0% 4.3% 5.1% +0.8% Lone parent: Dependent children 10.4% 19.1% +8.7% 11.5% 15.9% +4.4% Lone parent: All children non-dependent 4.7% 6.9% +2.2% 5.5% 7.4% +1.9% Other household types 18.2% 25.7% +7.5% 15.7% 21.5% +5.8% With dependent children 30.5% 28.9% -1.6% 23.2% 26.1% +2.9% Other (including all full-time students and all aged 11.9% 23.9% +12.0% 12.5% 19.5% +7.0% 65 and over) All Households 6.4% 8.2% +1.8% 5.9% 7.5% +1.5%

4.11 In terms of tenure, overcrowding has deteriorated more significantly in the Private Rented Sector (+5.7%) which is at a higher rate than that for the South East.

Figure 51: Overcrowded households by tenure 2011 and change 2001-11 for Wycombe and South East (Note: overcrowded households are considered to have an occupancy rating of -1 or less. Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)

All Tenures Owned Social Rent Private Rent Wycombe 2001 6.4% 3.5% 16.5% 14.1% Wycombe 2011 8.2% 3.5% 18.7% 19.8% Net change +1.8% +0.0% +2.2% +5.7% South East 2001 5.9% 2.7% 15.0% 15.3% South East 2011 7.5% 2.7% 17.3% 18.4% Net change +1.5% +0.0% +2.3% +3.1%

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Communal Establishments 4.12 Many people also live in non-traditional household units. Figure 52 shows that Wycombe District has lower relative proportions in all categories of Communal housing than the South East or England. In particular, there is a significant difference in Medical and Care establishments.

4.13 Communal establishments refers to managed residential accommodation where there is full or part time supervision of the accommodation. Medical and care establishments include Hospitals, Nursing/Care and Extra Care homes as well as Children’s homes.

Figure 52: Proportion of People in Communal Housing by Type of Establishment in Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2011)

Medical and care Prison Service Education Hotels Hostel/temporary shelter Other

Wycombe

South East

England

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Housing Tenure

4.14 The dominant form of housing tenure continues to be owner occupation, although the sector has declined relatively by 4.8% since 2001. In the same period, the private rented sector (PRS) has grown significantly to 16.6%, at a slightly higher rate than the South East but slower than in England. Affordable housing is also declining slightly relative to other tenures. Effectively, the private rent sector would appear to be growing via the conversion of other tenures (Figure 53).

Figure 53: Household Tenure by Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011. Note: Private Rent includes tied housing and living rent free)

Owned Private Rent Social Rent

70.7 -4.8 Wycombe 16.6 +5.6 12.7 -0.8

68.7 -5.2 South East 17.6 +5.5 13.7 -0.3

64.1 -4.6 England 18.2 +6.2 17.7 -1.6

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% -10%-8%-6%-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Percentage of Dwellings 2011 Net Change 2001-11

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

4.15 In summary: » 70.7% of all properties across the area were owned outright or owned with a mortgage (South East 68.7%) » 16.6% of stock is privately rented – up +5.6% since 2001 » 13.7% is social rent - down 0.8% since 2001

Property Prices 4.16 Figure 54 shows relative property prices across Wycombe District between 2000 and 2013: in that period, prices have almost doubled, and the market, despite a decline in values in 2007-09, has seen an upward trend since 2009, indicating that prices have recovered to their values at the market peak in 2007. This indicates that Wycombe District sale values are outperforming the South East average.

NOTE: Affordability is considered in Chapter 5.

Figure 54: Average Price of Properties Sold in each LA: Q4 2000-Q4 2012 (Source: HM Land Registry)

£400,000 £350,000 £300,000 £250,000 £200,000 £150,000 £100,000 £50,000 £0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Wycombe South East 4.17 Nevertheless, by looking at property price trends by band, the number of available properties below £150,000 has declined considerably. First time buyers, a key market driver for the sales sector, have fewer properties at higher values to purchase; affordability for them, therefore, has continued to decline in the last decade despite the 2007-2009 period.

4.18 Since 2004/5 very few transactions have occurred below £150,000. Figure 569 shows that just over 10% of properties are sold in this band. In the South East region there are nearly 20% of properties available in the sub £150,000.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 55: Percentage of Properties Sold for Key Price Bands in 2000-12 (Source: HM Land Registry)

Wycombe District South East

100% 100%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Up to 80K Up to 100K Up to 120K Up to 150K Up to 180K Up to 200K Up to 250K Up to 300K Up to 350K Up to 500K

Figure 56: Percentage of Properties Sold at £150k: 2000-12 (Source: HM Land Registry)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Wycombe South East 4.19 Looking at the Median Property Prices by property type, the highest volatility was for detached propertys in the period post 2006, with more modest adjustments for other property types. However, the long term price trajectory remains upwards.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 57: Median Price of Properties Sold in Wycombe by property type: Q2 2000-Q2 2013 (Source: HM Land Registry)

Terraced House Semi - detatched house Detatched house Flat

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Private Rented Sector

4.20 The growth of the Private Rented Sector (PRS) has become a key feature of England’s housing stock and a significant driver in the local housing market. The development of the sector may have a special role to play in aiding labour mobility in support of the local economy.

4.21 Nationally, there has been recognition that Private Rent offers a viable future tenure for many UK households, including those in housing need or on lower incomes. Around 25% of low to middle income families are currently unable to access home ownership, and many households in housing need are unable to access Affordable Rent/Social Rent homes. This group of ‘households in the middle’ represent a significant market for an alternative housing offer.

4.22 The number of people renting homes in England from private landlords has almost doubled in 10 years, from 1.9 million in 2001 to 3.6 million in 2011, a rise of 88% (Census 2011). Indeed, the number of households living in the private rented sector has risen to the same level as those in social housing (English Housing Survey 2011/12).

4.23 PRS rents appear to be increasing in the current market even though it was hoped that benefit reform would depress rises. The LSL Property Services Buy to Let index showed rents increased 3.2% between December 2011 and December 2012, with the usual small seasonal fall for Christmas.

4.24 Migration is a key driver of the PRS market. The population of England and Wales increased 7% between 2001 and 2011, with 55% of this increase being due to migration (Census 2011).

4.25 The sector is still relatively immature in that most landlords have small portfolios. Only 1% of PRS landlords own more than 10 properties. There has yet to be any significant entry into the sector by institutional investors or organisations assembling large portfolios, similar to that seen in other EU states.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

4.26 Further, the PRS has not contributed to new housing supply, being reliant for growth on the tenure conversion of existing owner occupied stock. There is, however, considerable current interest in attracting institutional investment to boost new build PRS supply.

4.27 The number of buy to let landlords entering the UK market fell away sharply in 2008 and 2009 when compared with earlier years, as shown in Figure 58. There is considerable current interest by Government in stimulating growth in the sector and this is discussed in Chapter 9.

4.28 The Buy to Let Sector has started to show signs of recovery albeit from a low base:

‘Lenders advanced 40,000 mortgages, worth £5.1 billion, to buy-to-let investors in the second quarter of 2013, according to data published today by the CML. Both the number of buy-to-let loans, and the value of lending, were the highest since the third quarter of 2008.’ (Council for Mortgage Lenders August 2013)

Figure 58: Buy to Let Mortgages 2006-2011 (Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders)

4.29 Housing stakeholders, generally, are relatively well disposed towards the sector, seeing a possible way of meeting housing need and delivering new supply. However, there is some caution around the quality of existing management (in terms of length of tenure, security of tenure and rent levels) as well as some quality issues with existing stock. Further, for any new supply, there are issues around keeping PRS stock available for rent and concerns that any public investment in PRS may deflect much needed investment away from Affordable Housing supply.

Private Rent in Wycombe District 4.30 The private rented sector forms an increasingly important part of the overall housing offer in Wycombe District (16.6% of households live in the sector). The relative share of the Wycombe housing market which is privately rented grew by 5.6% between 2001 and 2011, a significant rise, mostly from the conversion of existing tenures. This rapid growth, therefore, poses a considerable strategic issue for the area for which a considered response is required.

4.31 Figure 61 show recent trends in private rent for Wycombe. Overall, rental trends are upwards for all property sizes since 2010. In addition, the size of the private rented sector continues to expand across all bedroom sizes. Further, the average rents in Wycombe District are higher than both the South East and England.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 59: Average and Median Monthly Rents in Wycombe (Source: Valuation Office Agency 2010-2013) 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 Rooms Wycombe South East England Wycombe South East England Wycombe South East England 1 bedroom Count of 318 15,623 79,765 299 16,092 85,444 308 16,059 89,614 rents Average £649 £603 £616 £629 £591 £592 £628 £577 £588 rent value Median £650 £595 £500 £625 £575 £495 £625 £565 £495 rent value 2 bedrooms Count of 499 28,124 182,488 482 29,023 193,116 419 29,731 203,623 rents Average £898 £780 £683 £834 £760 £666 £807 £742 £660 rent value Median £850 £750 £575 £795 £725 £565 £750 £700 £550 rent value 3 bedrooms Count of 274 16,086 111,792 210 17,095 119,687 232 17,214 123,769 rents Average £1,161 £952 £773 1,114 £927 £764 £1,105 £903 £756 rent value Median £1,075 £875 £650 1,000 £850 £650 £950 £850 £650 rent value 4 or more bedrooms Count of 168 8,784 42,297 143 9,193 45,325 103 9,398 46,568 rents Average £2,047 £1,702 £1,362 £1,987 £1,626 £1,326 £1,963 £1,604 £1,303 rent value Median £1,800 £1,473 £1,100 £1,750 £1,400 £1,100 £1,650 £1,400 £1,000 rent value

4.32 It can also be seen that the rental trend for Wycombe is not only upwards but outperforms South East and England against all property bedroom sizes.

Figure 60: Median Monthly Rents in Wycombe (Source: Valuation Office Agency 2010-2013)

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

£2,000 £1,800 £1,600 £1,400 £1,200 £1,000 £800 £600 £400 £200 £0 England England England England Wycombe Wycombe Wycombe Wycombe South East South East South East South East 1 bed 2 Beds 3 Beds 4+ Beds

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

4.33 Figure 61 illustrates the different Census categories for broad “private rent” classification. Private rent includes not only homes rented from private landlords and letting agents, but also tied housing where employees are provided with accommodation linked to their jobs and other variants.

4.34 Around 79% of households who rent privately do so from a landlord or agency and this is a lower proportion than in the South East or England. Further, some c.8% of private renters live rent free, with a further 4% who rent from friends or family.

Figure 61: Categories of Private Rented Housing by Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2011)

Wycombe

England

South East

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Rented from a private landlord or letting agency Rented from employer of a household member Rented from relative or friend of a household member Other rented Live rent free

Stakeholders report a buoyant private rented sector with strong demand for private rented properties. High Wycombe, particularly, is a commuter area, popular with young people and professionals. Rent levels are firm and there is no reason for landlords to lower rents. Stakeholders also report strong demand for private rent from London boroughs. These offer very good terms and high rents for properties to house homeless applicants. The originating boroughs also offer guarantees that the property is returned in good condition.

Policy Developments 4.35 Policy for the PRS has, arguably, been slow to respond to the fundamental change in tenure that has occurred nationally, especially in London and the greater South East. Two key Government initiated reviews have focussed on issues within the sector: » The Private Rented Sector: Its Contribution and Potential (Rugg and Rhodes 2008) considered how the sector was changing and growing. Key themes from the research highlighted the impact of buy- to-let, the challenge of institutional investment, the professionalism and quality of property management, and the potential of the sector to meet housing need. » Review of the barriers to institutional investment in private rented homes (David Montague August 2012) considered the sector further, especially how new investment might be attracted to boost supply.

Benefit Reform

4.36 As highlighted elsewhere in this SHMA, there are several implications for the PRS from benefit reform that need to be considered:

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

» Possible reduction in PRS supply: Landlords may remove properties from the Housing Benefit supported ‘pool’; » Redistribution of PRS tenants from other areas: there may be a move by HB households out of other areas and into properties in Wycombe District; » Increased demand on local authority housing advice: pressure on Local Authorities from increases in homeless presentations and from ‘households in the middle’.

4.37 The response of PRS landlords is as yet unknown although stakeholders indicate that they are keenly aware of the reforms and some landlords are already responding by serving notice on Housing Benefit households.

Existing Housing Supply and the PRS

4.38 A key change that has occurred in local markets is the conversion rate of existing privately owned stock to private rent and, further, the rate of conversion of PRS to Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMO).

4.39 The experience in London may provide an indication of how the PRS may develop further, especially in higher value and/or high demand areas. In some London authorities, the conversion rate to PRS has been swift: half of all households in London now rent.

4.40 At the same time, PRS occupation levels have increased; essentially, households form at a faster rate than new supply so existing stock has to accommodate them. Hometrack analysis (December 2012) found 50% of London’s PRS homes were fully occupied and commented ‘The luxury of a spare room is a thing of the past for many London tenants’. Paragraph 4.10/Figure 38 also show that overcrowding in the PRS is at higher levels than in other tenures.

Strategy Responses – Existing Stock

4.41 Housing strategists have primarily responded to the PRS change in existing stock by seeking to improve management and property standards via licensing or self-regulation schemes, » Self-regulation by landlords to an agreed standard: for example, London (GLA) is aiming to improve conditions via self-regulation in a London Rental Standard. » Licensing and accreditation schemes: other authorities are introducing formal licensing schemes (e.g. Liverpool).

4.42 In addition, authorities are improving their monitoring of HMO conversion rates. The introduction of Green Deal/Energy Companies Obligation (ECO) in January 2013 has seen a shift to improving PRS homes, via programmes to tackle fuel poverty and improve energy efficiency for eligible PRS households.

4.43 The Government launched several new regulation initiatives in October 2013 including an approved redress scheme, a new Code of Practice setting standards for property management and a Tenants’ Charter.

New PRS Supply

4.44 Previous Governments have wrestled with the challenge of encouraging institutions to invest in new PRS development on a large scale, seeing this as a very attractive solution to the UK’s housing requirements.

4.45 Previous initiatives met with little success; the HCA launched a private rented sector initiative in 2009 but it met with limited interest and has since been dropped. However, the Build to Rent Fund (phases 1 and 2)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

have reported more success; Phase 1 has between 8-10,000 homes delivery planned with a quarter of these in London.

4.46 More recently, commentators have indicated that institutional investors are more inclined to developing Private Rented Schemes (especially in London) but there are perceived barriers around tax, viability, scale and yield.

4.47 Currently, the options to increase supply are varied, and range from policy type responses (arising from the Montague Review) or via market or Registered Providers (RP) responses to opportunity. These are highlighted below.

Government

4.48 Following the Montague Review recommendations, the Government is currently establishing a private rented sector task force to encourage and support build-to-let investment from the private sector, and to develop voluntary standards that future landlords would meet and tenants could expect. In addition, bids for the HCA Build to Rent Fund (a £200m fund in response to Montague – subsequently expanded to £1bn in 2013 Budget) sought Expressions of Interest by February 2013.

4.49 However, an increase in PRS new build delivery will likely mean increased HB cost to the Treasury, should new homes target lower income households who may qualify for Housing Benefit. This may yet act as a brake on policy towards future supply which targets HB eligible households.

Councils

4.50 Several options have been identified whereby Councils could enable new PRS supply to come forward and some Councils are considering this; for example, Manchester City Council is considering a scheme to use pension fund money to build 240 new private rented homes.

4.51 Other options for Councils include: » Land investment: A further option is for government and local authorities to "invest" land they own with private developers or RPs to improve viability. These agencies often find they can raise money to build homes but cannot afford to buy land as well. However, whether public sector land could be released quickly enough is a risk, given the restrictions public bodies face when selling assets. » Financial support: Councils could offer loan guarantees (similar to the ‘Get Britain Building’ fund) to support larger scale new-build private rented developments. However, again there may be barriers to this (such as borrowing limitations).

Registered Providers

4.52 RPs are potential key players in the delivery of new PRS supply and have taken a more interest in the sector: » RPs delivering new PRS homes: A recent Resolution Foundation report (Making Institutional Investment in the Private Rent Sector Work, 2012) recognised that new build-to-let developments could be funded by institutional investors, such as pension and life funds. However, the long development phase, which can often last more than two years, would act as a disincentive for institutions. Consequently it foresees a role for RPs to build new PRS units which would then be sold on to an investment fund, enabling social housing providers to build further new homes and,

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

possibly, retain management of the PRS stock. Sale and leaseback arrangements are also possible although this may attract Regulatory concern. » RPs acquiring new PRS portfolios from existing stock: Several larger RPs are currently considering building up a PRS portfolio from existing private stock. London & Quadrant is looking at spending £250 million on a 1,000-home private rented sector portfolio, with institutional investor backing. Hyde Group is looking at a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) to deliver off-balance sheet private rented housing. The Home Group bought a private rented sector property management business for £15.9 million in November 2012 (Home has had a PRS subsidiary since 1999). Thames Valley Housing is also set to expand its activity in the sector. Places for People recently acquired a portfolio of 925 private rented homes and seems set to expand this further. Arguably, these initiatives are focused on relatively high value and/or high yield areas.

Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs)

4.53 The Autumn Statement 2012 increased the proportion of spending which is awarded through a single funding pot to LEPs from April 2015. The pot can be used for housing. Any funding will reflect the quality of strategic proposals put forward by LEPs, and is likely to include funding for local transport, schemes to get people back into work, skills and any additional local growth funding, as well as housing. There are questions, however, regarding whether the pot will include any ring-fencing for housing and whether there will be flexibility to move funds to areas of housing need.

4.54 Potentially, LEPs could enable new PRS housing delivery and some attempts have been made in this regard to increase supply. For example, the Sheffield City Region LEP is currently considering how to bring in up to £100 million of institutional investment to boost their PRS.

Other Barriers

4.55 While new build PRS may be attractive in some areas, there are barriers that have historically restricted supply and these still offer a challenge to new schemes: » Tax: for investment institutions, commercial property enjoys tax advantages over residential in terms of stamp duty, capital gains and VAT. If new PRS is to come forward, it seems likely that this imbalance will need to be remedied by Government. The Labour Party has recently indicated that it may offer private landlords tax incentives in order to persuade them to provide longer-term tenancies and predictable rents to families (Private rented housing: providing stability and affordability for renters and families - December 2012). » Guarantees that new build PRS will remain in the sector: Montague identified that any reduced obligations must be backed by guarantees that homes will be available for private rent in the longer term rather than being sold.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Chapter 4 Summary Dwelling type Wycombe District has a similar dwelling type profile to the South East region and England, with more detached and semi-detached houses and fewer terraced houses and flats. Dwelling characteristics » Wycombe District properties have a range of numbers of bedrooms but 3 bedrooms predominate. 98.2% of homes have a garage or private driveway, with only 1.8% reliant on on- street parking. » Just under half of Wycombe District stock was built after 1965. However, c.8% is pre 20th century and 20% of homes have been developed since 1993. Wycombe District has lower relative proportions of communal housing (such as Nursing or Care homes) than the South East or England. Tenure The dominant form of housing tenure continues to be owner occupation, although the sector has declined 4.8% since 2001. In the same period, the private rented sector has grown significantly to 16.6%, at a slightly higher rate than the South East but slower than in England. The sector may have a key future role to play in aiding labour mobility in support of the local economy. House prices have almost doubled since 2001, and the market, despite a decline in values in 2007- 09, has seen an upward trend since 2009. The number of properties below £150,000 has declined considerably since 2001. First time buyers have fewer potential properties to purchase as a result. Private Rented Sector The PRS sector in Wycombe District has grown in the past decade and can be expected to grow further. In responding to the challenge this fundamental change is making, WDC has various options to consider by way of response: Existing provision » Monitor the impact of Benefit reform » Consider the role of RPs in developing the PRS locally » Consider the overall approach to licensing or self-regulation schemes for landlords » Maximise opportunities to improve property condition via the Green Deal and ECO schemes New provision » Take a view whether to engage actively in seeking new PRS supply and, if so, the most effective routes to do so including accessing new funding programmes

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

5. Current Housing Market The relationship between households and housing

5.1 This chapter considers key aspects of the current housing market and how this currently operates, especially in terms of the relationships between households and housing. It explores affordability, housing need, housing delivery, sale transactions and the impact of migrant workers.

Housing Affordability

5.2 Figure 62 shows the ratio of median full time earnings to average house prices in Wycombe District between 2002 and 2012 (last quarter of 2012: average house price: £334,225; median full time earnings: £32,001; ratio 10.51). The figure shows affordability has worsened in that period, despite some improvement 2008-09. Housing in Wycombe District is relatively less affordable than in the South East and the situation has changed little between 2002 and 2012. Affordability is further complicated by lower national housing delivery levels, lower availability of mortgage finance for first time buyers and reduced numbers of sales transactions. Nevertheless, as the graph shows, affordability in Wycombe District is worse than in the South East.

Figure 62: Median Full-time Earnings to Average House Price Ratio for Properties Sold by LA area (Source: ASHE and HM Land Registry)

Wycombe District South East 14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0 Average Average earnings to average house ratio price

6.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Turnover of Private Housing for Sale 5.3 The impact of the post 2007/08 housing market downturn can be seen by considering market transactions since the 2007 peak (Figure 63). The level of transactions beyond 2008/09 was lower than in previous years.

5.4 It is also the case that at least some of the properties at the very lowest prices would not be fit for habitation in their current state and would require significant investment to bring them up to an appropriate standard.

Figure 63: Volume of Properties Sold Across Wycombe District: Q4 2000-Q4 2012 (Source: HM Land Registry. Note: Figures show rolling annual total based on quarterly data)

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000 Annual Annual Number of Property Sales 500

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Repossessions 5.5 The number of possession proceedings and orders via Wycombe County Court has fallen significantly since 2007, reflecting the banking sector's increasingly preventative approach to mortgagees in debt.

“Wherever possible, lenders will work with borrowers to manage periods of temporary financial difficulty and enable them to keep their home." (Council for Mortgage Lenders 2013)

5.6 Nationally, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reports a fall in the number of properties taken into possession by mortgage lenders (down from 8,200 in the third quarter of 2012-13 to 7,700 in the fourth quarter), a repossession rate of 0.07%. This is the lowest quarterly number since the fourth quarter of 2007. The number of households experiencing mortgage arrears also fell, although the number of those in more serious arrears continues to increase.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 64: Mortgage Possessions in Wycombe (Source: Ministry of Justice Mortgage and Landlord Possession statistics Q1 2003- Q4 2013)

Suspended orders Possession orders Outright possession orders

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Right to Buy 5.7 "Right to Buy" is a scheme under which longstanding local authority tenants are entitled to purchase their homes at a heavily discounted price.

5.8 Right to Buy in Wycombe District has declined from peak levels in earlier years as values and discount arrangements became less attractive for potential purchasers.

5.9 The scheme was re-launched in April 2012 with increased maximum discount levels (maximum of £75,000 or 60% of the house value/70% for a flat depending on which is lower). The discounts are higher than previously available (e.g. £16,000 in London, up to £38,000 in parts of the south east). The re-launch aimed to achieve 100,000 sales.

5.10 In addition, the Budget 2013 has reduced the qualifying period for Right to Buy from 5 to 3 years to incentivise applications further.

5.11 The aim of the re-launched scheme is that, for every additional home sold, a new Affordable Rent home will be built. Receipts from sales will be used to fund new affordable homes on a 'one for one' basis, and the Government expect to deliver up to 100,000 new homes and support 200,000 jobs.

5.12 Tenants of former WDC properties who became tenants of Red Kite as a result of the stock transfer in 2012 retained their entitlement to Right to Buy. Levels of interest nationally in Right to Buy since the re-launch have increased, although not all enquiries result in sales. In 2011/12 only 26% of enquiries proceeded to sales, whereas in 2012/13 the proportion was 36% and for the first 5 months of 2013/14 it was 52%, suggesting either a more realistic approach to ownership or the effects of the economic situation.

5.13 The number of sales increased significantly in 2012/13, and a further 17 properties were sold in the first 5 months of 2013-14.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

5.14 Overall, it is possible that the Right to Buy re-launch may increase sales further which could impact on the overall net supply of affordable housing in Wycombe District, although it is still too early to demonstrate this.

Figure 65: Wycombe District Right to Buy sales 2001-2013 (Source: CLG and Red Kite)

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

Affordable and Social Housing Sector

5.15 Affordable rented housing (both Social Rent and, more recently, Affordable Rent) make a significant contribution to meeting housing need in Wycombe and the turnover and mobility within the stock is a useful indicator of the Affordable Housing supply to prospective households.

5.16 Local authority transfer levels have been relatively consistent from 2004 to 2011, although the number of lettings to new tenants has fallen noticeably from 2007-08. Mutual exchanges between WDC tenants have reduced by around a third since 2004/05.

5.17 Lettings by Registered Providers have been relatively consistent for new lettings although the numbers of relets have varied over time.

5.18 Looking forward, the long term trend appears to be moving to a reduction in turnover, and, consequently, any increase in the proportion of lettings to transfers may need to be monitored. A further issue concerns Benefit Reform and the implications this may have for turnover in coming years; evidence regarding this is currently unavailable.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 66: Local Authority Housing Relets for Wycombe (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2005-2011)

Transfers New tenants Total

500

450

400

350 296 307 300 257 250

200 144 131 127 138 129 150 115 125 100 79 46 52 50 0 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Figure 67: Local Authority Dwellings let through mutual exchange in Wycombe (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2005-2011)

70 67 66

60 56

50 46 43 40 40 33 30

0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 68: Registered Social Landlords Relets for Wycombe (Source: The Continuous Recording of Lettings and Sales in Social Housing in England 2005-2012)

First Let Relet Total

600

500

408 386 400 350 338

300 228 198 200 151 151 126 125 85 88 100 83 81 38 9 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Meeting Housing Need in the Private Rented Sector: Housing Benefit

5.19 Many households in both the social and private rented sectors are able to claim support with rent costs in the form of housing benefit. The Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) publishes quarterly statistics for Housing Benefit recipients. Figure 69 shows the longer term trends in the number of Housing Benefit recipients in England, especially in the private rented sector.

Figure 69: Trends in the number of Housing Benefit claimants in England (Source: DWP)

Rent from LA Rent from RSL Private renting 6,000

5,000

4,000 Thousands

- 3,000

2,000

1,000 Number of Recipients 0 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

5.20 The number of Private Rented Sector Housing Benefit claimants in Wycombe District increased from 2,240 in April 2010 to 2,590 in May 2012, matching the upward trend for England as a whole.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

5.21 Figure 70 sets this change in housing benefit claimant numbers in the private rented sector between 2010 and 2012 in the context of all local authorities across South East England.

Figure 70: Growth in Housing Benefit Claimants in the Private Rented Sector April 2010-May 2012 for Local Authorities in the South East of England (Source: DWP)

Medway UA Reading UA Thanet Southampton UA Rushmoor Swale Shepway Dover Hastings Slough UA Eastbourne Arun Ashford Portsmouth UA Crawley Maidstone Canterbury Gravesham Wycombe +350 Worthing Lewes Havant Oxford Isle of Wight UA West Berkshire UA Wealden Basingstoke and Deane Reigate and Banstead Rother New Forest Tandridge Eastleigh Aylesbury Vale Dartford South Oxfordshire Woking Tunbridge Wells Guildford Tonbridge and Malling Adur Winchester Spelthorne Chichester Mid Sussex Epsom and Ewell Gosport Vale of White Horse Surrey Heath Waverley Horsham Wokingham UA Bracknell Forest UA Windsor and Maidenhead UA Fareham Sevenoaks Cherwell Test Valley West Oxfordshire Elmbridge East Hampshire Mole Valley South Bucks Hart Chiltern Runnymede Milton Keynes UA Brighton and Hove UA -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

5.22 Figure 71 shows those households in Wycombe District which claim housing benefit while living in the private rented sector as a share of all dwellings (3.6%).

Figure 71: Housing Benefit in Private Rented Sector as a Share of Total Dwellings (Source: CLG Live Table 100 March 2011; DWP March 2012)

England 6.3% South East of England 5.6% Hastings Thanet Eastbourne Brighton and Hove Shepway Medway Slough Reading Isle of Wight Portsmouth Swale Dover Arun Worthing Southampton Milton Keynes Lewes Rushmoor Gravesham Oxford Rother Crawley Canterbury Gosport Adur Ashford Maidstone Dartford Havant Cherwell Wealden Epsom and Ewell Chichester New Forest Spelthorne Tandridge Woking Tunbridge Wells Runnymede Bracknell Forest Wycombe 3.6% Elmbridge Reigate and Banstead West Berkshire Eastleigh Guildford Mid Sussex Aylesbury Vale West Oxfordshire Horsham Tonbridge and Malling Mole Valley Test Valley South Oxfordshire Fareham Windsor and Maidenhead Basingstoke and Deane Winchester Waverley Surrey Heath Wokingham Sevenoaks Vale of White Horse East Hampshire South Bucks Chiltern Hart 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

5.23 This shows Wycombe District in the middle third of South East authorities; although there is less dependence on housing benefit support for private renters than in some other areas, it is still a significant factor.

5.24 While many households choose to live in private rented accommodation with housing benefit support, other households may prefer an affordable tenancy, but are unable to access one due to unavailability of existing or new Affordable Rent/Social Rent stock. To reduce the number of households claiming housing benefit in the private rented sector, more affordable housing would need to be provided.

Acute Housing Need: Homelessness 5.25 A key duty of local authorities is to provide a service to households who become homeless or are at risk of becoming homeless where they are satisfied that the applicant has a priority need. Figure 72 shows the trends in total and accepted number of claims for homelessness and the number of households in temporary accommodation for Wycombe District; the long term trend has been downwards, and recently the number of homeless claims and acceptances has levelled off.

Figure 72: Homeless Applications and Acceptances and Homeless Households in Temporary Accommodation Q1 2003- Q1 2011 (Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data. Note: Number of cases based on 12-months to end of quarter)

800

700

600

500

400

300 250 248

200 161 148 124 91 87 100 61 69

0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Households in Temporary Accommodation Accepted Claims for Homelessness Total Claims for Homelessness

Housing Need – Summarising the Current Market 5.26 The implications of housing need for housing requirements is considered in Chapters 6 and 8, where long term demographic trends and household formation rates are input into the Housing Mix model to derive Wycombe’s future housing requirements.

5.27 This chapter, however, has highlighted other trends and features of the current housing market. The key issues emerging are:

» Owner occupation: affordability, though improved over 2008, is still relatively high for those seeking to access owner occupation.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

» Affordable housing: nationally, new affordable supply has not kept pace with demand for many years while existing supply has reduced.

» Private rented sector: the private rented sector has expanded. Part of the sector is meeting housing need among lower income households.

5.28 Overall, current trends indicate increased pressure on affordable and private rented housing from households in need seeking to resolve their housing requirements.

Impact of International Migration on the Housing Market 5.29 As can be seen above, data regarding migration has to be assembled from various sources: “There is no national, regularly updated, specific source of statistics about recent migrants in the UK that tells us about their patterns of housing tenure. Instead, the published data that tracks housing trends simply provides indications, for example, of migrants’ limited access to new lettings in the social sector, that suggest the vast majority of migrants use the PRS, at least for the initial years that they are in the UK. (UK Migrants and the Private Rented Sector; Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) 2012).”

5.30 However, what is known (e.g. from research by JRF, Housing Migration Network and Labour Force Survey) is that: » New migrants often enter the UK housing market in the least desirable housing, frequently in disadvantaged areas or where demand for housing is lowest; » Most recent migrants live in the private rented sector, including Houses in Multiple Occupation, frequently in poorer quality properties; » Increased migration to the UK also coincides with a shortage of, and high demand for, affordable housing; » Poor housing, competition for housing and high levels of population 'churn' have a detrimental impact on relationships at local level between different groups, particularly in areas not used to such change.

5.31 Overall, in terms of migration, Wycombe District has seen a net out-migration loss 2006-2010 with a decreasing year on year loss and a small net gain in 2010.

5.32 Figure 6 shows that between 2002 and 2011 the vast majority of all new National Insurance registrations were issued primarily to people from Poland, which indicates that international migration may be largely employment driven.

5.33 The data also indicates that many in-migrants are aged 25-44. The net gain of pre-school children also indicates that many of these younger in-migrant households have young children. There has also been a net gain of those aged 65+, which may indicate people moving to seek support from family.

5.34 The Wycombe District migration relationship in both directions is primarily with London and the South East.

5.35 In the light of the above, WDC should continue to keep under review the migration relationships it enjoys. Further, given the increasing levels of international migration, WDC may wish to monitor the quality and accessibility of housing and housing related services for households across all ethnic groups, and ensure that housing strategies seek to tackle any inequalities identified.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Current Housing Market and the Local Economy 5.36 The current housing market plays a key role in supporting the local economy both directly (through house building) and indirectly (through provision of housing to support the labour force). For WDC a key issue is what kind of new housing provision might offer support to the local economy growth aspirations.

5.37 However, evidence is limited which establishes a link between housing and economy, particularly in how economic requirements translate into housing provision (see The Barker Review of Housing Supply Report; 2004). Since 2010, the Government has recognised the role housing plays in economic growth but initiatives have focussed on increasing labour mobility amongst lower income labour – for example, by increasing Private Rented Sector supply (see Montague Report: Review of the barriers to institutional investment in private rented homes 2012). Lower income labour is subject to reduced mobility over high income labour given house price discrepancies and social housing transfer/exchange issues. Higher income labour is usually able to resolve its own housing issues by commuting further, renting locally and buying ‘away’ or buying locally on the basis of lifestyle (e.g. for a rural lifestyle).

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Chapter 5 Summary Affordability Affordability has worsened in the last decade despite some improvement 2008-09. Interestingly, the affordability ratio in 2012 is now almost back to the peak of the market in 2007. Volume of Sales The level of sales transactions in Wycombe District beyond 2008/09 has been lower than previously. Right to Buy The Right to Buy re-launch (2012) has had an impact and may increase sales further, this could impact on the overall net supply of affordable housing rent in Wycombe District, if RTB sales exceed new affordable housing delivery. Housing need Overall, current trends indicate increased pressure on affordable and private rented housing from households in need seeking to resolve their housing requirements. Private Rented Sector The take up of Housing Benefit in the Wycombe District Private Rented Sector has increased in recent years in line with the trend for England as a whole. This could reflect the lack of capacity in Affordable Housing stock to meet need. Homelessness The long term trend in homelessness is downwards, more recently the number of homeless claims and acceptances has levelled off. However, there has been a recent increase in the use of temporary accommodation (20012-13). Migration Wycombe District has seen a decreasing net migration loss in every year from 2006 to 2009, with a net gain in 2010. The trend is for a reduction in net loss to other parts of the UK and an increase in net international in-migration. Most UK migrants who come to or leave the area move within the South East region or West London, with a net gain from London and a net loss to the South East. New migrants often enter the UK housing market in the least desirable housing, frequently in disadvantaged areas or where demand for housing is lowest. Most also live in the private rented sector, including Houses in Multiple Occupation, and these are often poorer quality properties. WDC should continue to keep migration under regular review, to monitor the quality and accessibility of housing and housing related services for households across all ethnic groups, and ensure that housing strategies seek to tackle any inequalities identified. Housing and the Local Economy In Wycombe District, the combined effects of key drivers within the local housing market (affordability, earnings, house prices and migration), a relatively young in-migrant population (25- 44), plus an average house price of £334,225 with median full time earnings of £32,001, create affordability issues. In responding to the drivers in the local housing market and to meet the aim of supporting the local economy, WDC might consider its approach to the Private Rented Sector, both in terms of the quality of existing stock and the delivery of new high quality supply.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

6. Projecting Housing Requirements Establishing the future need and demand for housing

6.1 Modelling future need and demand for housing requires a consideration of the future housing market from a high-level, strategic perspective; in this way an understanding of how key drivers and long-term trends impact on the structure of households and population over the full planning period can be delivered. Further, it needs to be produced in a way that is consistent, strategic and robust.

6.2 The National Planning Policy Framework contains a presumption in favour of sustainable development, and states that Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing based on household and population projections that take account of migration and demographic change:

At the heart of the National Planning Policy Framework is a presumption in favour of sustainable development, which should be seen as a golden thread running through both plan-making and decision-taking. Local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area. Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change, unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in this Framework taken as a whole. National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), paragraph 14

To boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area. National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), paragraph 47

Local planning authorities … should prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change. National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), paragraph 159

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Population and Household Projections

6.3 National Planning Practice Guidance published in draft in August 2013 places emphasis on the role of CLG Household Projections as the appropriate starting point in determining objectively assessed need. However, the Guidance does allow for the use of sensitivity testing of CLG Household projection to ‘test’ whether these are appropriate, allowing for alternative assumptions to be used.

Household projections published by the Department for Communities and Local Government should provide the starting point estimate of overall housing need. The household projections produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government are statistically robust and are based on nationally consistent assumptions. CLG Practice Guidance (Draft) 2013, section 3

Plan makers may consider sensitivity testing, specific to their local circumstances, based on alternative assumptions in relation to the underlying demographic projections and household formation rates. Any local changes would need to be clearly explained and justified on the basis of established sources of robust evidence. CLG Practice Guidance (Draft) 2013, section 3

6.4 Given this context, Figure 73 sets out the range of household projections that CLG has produced for the district over the last three rounds of projections.

Figure 73: CLG Household Projections by Local Authority (Source: CLG Household Projections)

10-year period 25-year period CLG Household Total Annual Total Annual Projections Period Period Change Average Change Average

2006-based 2006-16 4,000 400 2006-31 10,000 400

2008-based 2008-18 5,000 500 2008-33 13,000 520

Interim 2011-based 2011-21 3,800 380 - - -

6.5 It is clear that the projections have varied over time, with the projected increase in households ranging from 380 up to 520 additional households each year. Each set of household projections will be influenced by a wide range of underlying data and trend-based assumptions, and it is important to consider the range of projected growth and not simply defer to the most recent data.

6.6 It is also important to recognise that the 2011-based projections are classed as “interim” given that they do not take full account of all the information that will become available from the 2011 Census; as a consequence these statistics only project forward over the 10-year period 2011-21. Further CLG household projections that take full account of the 2011 Census and project forward over the normal 25-year period are likely to be released in late 2014, and it will be important for the Council to consider this information when it is published.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Current and Future Population

6.7 Each of the CLG households projections are based on ONS Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP) for the same period, and the population projections are based on trends evident in the ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate Components of Change. The original ONS Mid-2011 Population Estimate suggested that Wycombe District had an overall population of 166,047 people; but the 2011 Census suggested that the actual population for the area was 171,644 people, 5,597 higher than previously estimated. Therefore, the trends that informed the ONS SNPP understated the actual population growth in Wycombe – so the CLG household projections are based on likely underestimates of population.

6.8 The ONS has now revised their Mid-Year Population Estimates in the light of the 2011 Census, and has published adjusted components of population change for the 10-year intercensal period. Figure 74 presents the revised data that has now been published, detailing the components of population change for Wycombe District over the last 10 years.

Figure 74: Components of population change, revised in the light of the 2011 Census (Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates, revised. Note: “Other Changes” includes adjustments for asylum seekers, prisoners, armed forces and other unattributable changes. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100)

International Migration Natural UK Migration Other Total Year Births Deaths Migration and Other Change Changes Change In Out In Out Changes

2001-02 1,975 1,294 681 8,731 9,758 922 829 599 -335 346

2002-03 1,993 1,264 729 8,599 9,901 1,349 760 575 -138 591

2003-04 2,061 1,296 765 8,407 9,658 1,460 966 421 -336 429

2004-05 2,001 1,223 778 8,305 8,964 1,251 813 644 423 1,201

2005-06 2,157 1,185 972 8,528 9,422 1,633 1,224 549 64 1,036

2006-07 2,104 1,141 963 8,805 9,491 1,349 1,081 556 138 1,101

2007-08 2,184 1,187 997 8,023 8,763 1,246 993 534 47 1,044

2008-09 2,251 1,172 1,079 7,648 8,195 1,051 1,084 554 -26 1,053

2009-10 2,139 1,155 984 8,393 8,368 888 1,001 561 473 1,457

2010-11 2,299 1,279 1,020 8,261 8,068 1,059 1,164 542 630 1,650

10-year 2,116 1,220 897 8,370 9,059 1,221 992 554 94 991 Average

5-Year

Averages

2001-06 2,037 1,252 785 8,514 9,541 1,323 918 558 -64 721

2002-07 2,063 1,222 841 8,529 9,487 1,408 969 549 30 872

2003-08 2,101 1,206 895 8,414 9,260 1,388 1,015 541 67 962

2004-09 2,139 1,182 958 8,262 8,967 1,306 1,039 567 129 1,087

2005-10 2,167 1,168 999 8,279 8,848 1,233 1,077 551 139 1,138

2006-11 2,195 1,187 1,009 8,226 8,577 1,119 1,065 549 252 1,261

Lowest Net 2,037 1,252 785 8,514 9,541 1,323 918 558 -64 721 Migration

Highest Net 2,195 1,187 1,009 8,226 8,577 1,119 1,065 -297 252 1,261 Migration

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

6.9 Using the updated mid-year estimates, ORS developed a range of migration-led scenarios to derive alternative population projections that take full account of the revised data. The mid-trend migration scenario is based on a 10-year average, and the high- and low-trend scenarios based on 5-year averages. The analysis also presents outputs based on a zero migration scenario, where all migration flows are assumed to be zero.

6.10 Figure 75 details the assumed migration levels for each scenario. Given that no further data is available about “Other Changes”, these are incorporated by adjusting the primary flows on a proportionate basis for the high-, mid- and low-trend scenarios. The zero migration scenario simply assumes all migration flows to be zero.

Figure 75: Assumed migration flows for population projections based on high-, mid- and low-trend migration scenarios

Base Data Adjusted Flows Migration Scenario UK International Other UK International and Other Changes In Out In Out Changes In Out In Out

High-trend 8,226 8,577 1,119 1,065 549 8,464 8,329 1,151 1,034 252

Mid-trend 8,370 9,059 1,221 992 554 8,606 8,804 1,255 964 94

Low-trend 8,514 9,541 1,323 918 558 8,748 9,278 1,359 893 -64

Zero - - - - - 0 0 0 0 0

Developing Population Projections

6.11 The population projections have been produced using the PopGroup software (developed by Manchester University). The analysis is informed by a range of assumptions which have been determined on the basis of the most up-to-date information about the population in Wycombe District.

6.12 Figure 76 and Figure 77 show the overall population projections for the three migration-based scenarios over the period 2011-31 and the projected 5-year age cohorts by gender, together with a zero migration scenario. The trend-based projections range from 188,000 based on the Low-trend Migration scenario up to 195,500 based on the High-trend Migration scenario, which represent 20-year increases of 16,100 persons and 23,600 persons respectively (a range of 7,500 persons between the two scenarios).

6.13 Whilst the Low-trend migration scenario is based on a net out migration of population, it should be noted that the consequence of migration in this scenario is a younger population than seen in the zero migration scenario (where it is assumed that there will be no migration). Given that a younger population will tend to yield more births and fewer deaths, there is projected to be more natural growth in the population in the Low-trend migration scenario than in the Zero migration scenario and this offsets the net out migration. Therefore, despite the differences in migration, the Low-trend migration scenario yields a larger projected population than the Zero migration scenario.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 76: Population projections 2011-31 comparing Nil, High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios

Trend Zero migration Low-trend migration Mid-trend migration High-trend migration

200,000

195,000

190,000

185,000

180,000

175,000

Numberof People 170,000

165,000

160,000

155,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Figure 77: Population projections 2011-31 by gender and 5-year age cohort based on High-, Mid-, Low-Trend and Nil Migration scenarios (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

2011 2031 High-trend Migration 2031 Mid-trend Migration 2031 Low-trend Migration 2031 Zero Migration Age M F Total M F Total M F Total M F Total M F Total

Aged 0-4 5,600 5,500 11,100 6,000 5,700 11,700 5,800 5,500 11,300 5,600 5,300 10,900 5,200 4,900 10,100

Aged 5-9 5,400 5,300 10,700 6,300 6,000 12,300 6,100 5,800 11,900 5,900 5,600 11,500 5,200 4,900 10,100

Aged 10-14 5,500 5,400 10,800 6,000 5,900 11,900 5,900 5,800 11,700 5,800 5,700 11,500 5,200 4,900 10,100

Aged 15-19 5,500 5,400 10,900 5,700 5,400 11,100 5,600 5,300 10,900 5,500 5,200 10,700 5,400 5,100 10,500

Aged 20-24 5,200 5,200 10,400 6,000 5,200 11,200 5,900 4,900 10,800 5,800 4,700 10,500 5,600 5,500 11,100

Aged 25-29 5,200 5,300 10,500 6,000 5,600 11,600 5,900 5,300 11,200 5,800 5,100 10,900 5,400 5,300 10,700

Aged 30-34 5,500 5,700 11,200 6,400 6,100 12,500 6,300 5,800 12,100 6,200 5,600 11,800 5,400 5,300 10,700

Aged 35-39 6,000 5,900 11,900 6,800 6,900 13,700 6,700 6,700 13,400 6,600 6,500 13,100 5,400 5,400 10,800

Aged 40-44 6,500 6,800 13,300 6,100 7,200 13,300 6,000 7,100 13,100 6,000 7,000 13,000 5,100 5,200 10,300

Aged 45-49 6,700 6,200 12,900 5,700 6,200 11,900 5,700 6,200 11,900 5,600 6,100 11,700 5,100 5,300 10,400

Aged 50-54 5,500 5,600 11,100 5,700 6,000 11,700 5,600 5,900 11,500 5,500 5,900 11,400 5,400 5,600 11,000

Aged 55-59 4,900 5,000 9,900 5,600 5,500 11,100 5,500 5,400 10,900 5,500 5,400 10,900 5,800 5,700 11,500

Aged 60-64 4,900 5,000 9,900 5,400 5,900 11,300 5,400 5,900 11,300 5,300 5,800 11,100 6,100 6,500 12,600

Aged 65-69 4,100 4,300 8,400 5,200 5,100 10,300 5,100 5,100 10,200 5,000 5,000 10,000 6,100 5,800 11,900

Aged 70-74 3,000 3,300 6,300 3,900 4,400 8,300 3,800 4,400 8,200 3,800 4,300 8,100 4,800 5,100 9,900

Aged 75-79 2,500 2,900 5,400 3,300 3,900 7,200 3,200 3,800 7,000 3,200 3,800 7,000 3,900 4,300 8,200

Aged 80-84 1,600 2,200 3,800 2,900 3,600 6,500 2,900 3,600 6,500 2,800 3,600 6,400 3,300 3,800 7,100

Aged 85-89 800 1,400 2,300 1,900 2,600 4,500 1,900 2,600 4,500 1,900 2,500 4,400 2,100 2,700 4,800

Aged 90+ 300 900 1,200 1,200 2,200 3,400 1,200 2,100 3,300 1,200 2,100 3,300 1,400 2,300 3,700

Total 84,800 87,200 172,000 96,100 99,400 195,500 94,500 97,200 191,700 93,000 95,200 188,200 91,900 93,600 185,500

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Economic Activity

6.14 On the basis of the population projections, it is possible to estimate the future labour force given economic activity rates by age and gender.

6.15 Figure 78 shows the economic activity rates in 2011 by gender and age. This data is based on information from the 2011 Census, but as not all detailed data has yet been published at local authority level we have estimated the distribution for Wycombe District based on information that has been published about economic activity across broad age groups, together with more detailed information across the South East region and the age structure of the general population in Wycombe District based on the Mid-2011 Population Estimate.

Figure 78: Economic activity rates in 2011 for the general population and student population by age and gender (Note: Age distribution based on 2011 Census. Student population includes school children aged 16-17. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100)

Wycombe District Population

Age Male Female

Total EA Rate Total EA Rate

Aged 16-17 2,226 802 36.0 2,222 916 41.2

Aged 18-19 2,139 1,366 63.9 2,085 1,335 64.0

Aged 20-21 2,107 1,500 71.2 1,974 1,335 67.6

Aged 22-24 3,112 2,631 84.5 3,215 2,507 78.0

Aged 25-29 5,218 4,867 93.3 5,294 4,222 79.8

Aged 30-34 5,508 5,261 95.5 5,688 4,509 79.3

Aged 35-39 5,999 5,748 95.8 5,863 4,596 78.4

Aged 40-44 6,478 6,177 95.4 6,802 5,521 81.2

Aged 45-49 6,658 6,313 94.8 6,227 5,177 83.1

Aged 50-54 5,486 5,331 97.2 5,565 4,815 86.5

Aged 55-59 4,934 4,471 90.6 4,983 3,876 77.8

Aged 60-64 4,863 3,413 70.2 5,014 2,267 45.2

Aged 65-69 4,106 1,355 33.0 4,286 927 21.6

Aged 70-74 3,008 487 16.2 3,332 324 9.7

Aged 75+ 5,316 313 5.9 7,398 223 3.0

Total 67,158 50,035 - 69,948 42,550 -

6.16 By applying these economic activity rates to the population projections, we can establish the associated labour force (Figure 74).

Figure 79: Labour force projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures calculated by applying 2011 Economic Activity Rates rates to age distributions from ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate for 2011 and Projected Population for 2031. Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

Labour Force High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration based on 2011 Economic Activity Rates Migration Migration Migration

2011 92,600 92,600 92,600 92,600 2031 99,500 97,700 95,900 91,700 Total change 2011-31 +7,000 +5,100 +3,300 -800

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

6.17 It is apparent that the migration-led projections would yield an increase in labour force ranging from 3,300 up to 7,000 additional workers over the 20-year period to 2031. Nevertheless, economic activity rates are unlikely to remain constant as illustrated by past trends. Figure 80 shows economic activity rates by age and gender for the UK over the last 20 years, based on data from the Labour Force Survey. The charts also show a linear trend for each series based on data recorded since 2001.

Figure 80: Economic Activity Rate long-term UK trends by age and gender (Source: Labour Market Statistics based on Labour Force Survey. Note: Linear trendlines based on data for period since 2001 added to illustrate possible future trends)

Male 16-24 Female 16-24 Male 25-34 Female 25-34 85 100

80 95 93.2 75 90

70 85 82.0 65 80

60 75

55 70 51.1 50 50.6 65 45 60 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Male 35-49 Female 35-49 Male 50-64 Female 50-64 100 85 82.0 95 80 93.1 90 75 74.2 85 84.7 70 80 65

75 60

70 55

65 50

60 45 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Male 65+ Female 65+ 40

20 20.8

15 12.5 10

0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

6.18 On the basis of data from the Labour Force Survey and 2011 Census, it is clear that economic activity rates across all age groups aged 25+ have tended to increase (in particular over the period since 2001). This is especially the case for the female workforce and workers aged 50+. The reduction in participation rates for those aged 16-24 is primarily as a consequence of the increased numbers remaining in full-time education.

6.19 The most recent economic activity rate projections produced by the ONS were published in January 2006 and covered the period to 2020 (“Projections of the UK labour force, 2006 to 2020” by Vassilis Madouros; published in ONS Labour Market Trends, January 2006); however these figures suggested substantially lower changes in activity rates than have actually been experienced over the last decade. Furthermore, recent research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and University College London concluded that: “Future increases in the state pension age will lead to a substantial increase in employment” (http://www.ifs.org.uk/pr/spa_pr_0313.pdf).

6.20 It is difficult to extrapolate future economic activity rates, given that the analysis is inherently complex and dependent on a range of demographic, socio-economic and structural changes in the labour market. Furthermore, the SHMA is not a detailed labour force study, but it is clearly necessary to take account of changing future participation rates when considering the likely future workforce.

6.21 In the absence of any recent data from the ONS, future participation rates have been calculated using a time trend analysis for each population subgroup. The analysis uses ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, based on the quarterly data for the period 2001 (Q1) to 2013 (Q1), and the outputs from the analysis are summarised in Figure 81.

6.22 To establish future participation rates, the analysis has assumed that the proportionate change projected for UK rates has an equivalent impact on the rates for the population in Wycombe District. Nevertheless, the rates have been kept constant for those aged under 25 (as historic changes in participation rates were related to increases in the student population which seem unlikely to be repeated) and those aged 75 or over (to avoid unrealistic assumptions about participation rates from the very elderly).

Figure 81: Projected economic activity rates by age and gender (Note: Rates for population aged 25-74 based on equivalent UK trend-based projections (orange cells). Rates for general population aged 16-24 and aged 75+ held constant (light blue cells))

UK Wycombe District Age and General Population Gender Trend 2011 Trend 2031 Change % Change 2011 2031

Males 16-24 67.1 51.1 -16.0 -24% 66.6 66.6 Males 25-34 92.8 93.2 +0.4 +0% 94.4 94.4 Males 35-49 92.2 93.1 +1.0 +1% 95.4 96.3 Males 50-64 76.3 82.0 +5.7 +8% 86.0 92.9 Males 65-74 25.7 45.0 11.9 20.8 +8.9 +75% Males 75+ 5.9 5.9 Females 16-24 61.8 50.6 -11.3 -18% 64.1 64.1 Females 25-34 77.0 82.0 +5.0 +6% 79.5 84.3 Females 35-49 80.0 84.7 +4.7 +6% 80.9 85.7 Females 50-64 61.8 74.2 +12.4 +20% 69.4 83.3 Females 65-74 16.1 32.4 6.2 12.5 +6.3 +101% Females 75+ 3.0 3.0

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

6.23 Using these adjusted rates, we can estimate the labour force for each of the population projections. On this basis, Figure 82 shows that the trend-based scenarios suggest that the work force is likely to increase by between 11,500 and 15,500 workers over the 20-year period to 2031.

Figure 82: Labour force projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures calculated by applying 2011 Economic Activity Rates to age distributions from ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate for 2011 and projected trend-based Economic Activity Rates to the Projected Population for 2031. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100)

2011 2031 High-trend Migration 2031 Mid-trend Migration 2031 Low-trend Migration 2031 Zero Migration Age Total Rate EA Total Rate EA Total Rate EA Total Rate EA Total Rate EA

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Communal Establishments

6.24 Prior to considering household projections, it is necessary to identify the household population and separate out the population assumed to be living in communal establishments. The age-gender distribution of the communal establishment population has been based on CLG data uplifted so that the total population is in line with the 2011 Census.

6.25 Consistent with the CLG approach, we have assumed that the number of people aged under 75 living in communal establishments will remain constant over the projection period; however, it is the proportion of people aged 75 or over that is held constant by gender.

6.26 Figure 83 shows the breakdown between the household population and the population living in communal establishments for each of the three scenarios.

Figure 83: Population projections to 2031 by gender and 5-year age cohort based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Communal Establishment population held constant for population aged under 75 (light blue cells), and held proportionately constant for population aged 75 or over (orange cells). Household population and Total population figures rounded to nearest 100. Communal Establishment population rounded to the nearest 10. All calculations based on unrounded data)

2011 2031 High-trend Migration 2031 Mid-trend Migration 2031 Low-trend Migration 2031 Zero Migration Age HH CE Total HH CE Total HH CE Total HH CE Total HH CE Total

Aged 0-4 11,100 0 11,100 11,700 0 11,700 11,300 0 11,300 10,900 0 10,900 10,200 0 10,200

Aged 5-9 10,700 20 10,700 12,200 20 12,200 11,900 20 11,900 11,500 20 11,500 10,100 20 10,100

Aged 10-14 10,500 380 10,800 11,500 380 11,900 11,300 380 11,700 11,100 380 11,400 9,800 380 10,100

Aged 15-19 10,300 600 10,900 10,500 600 11,100 10,300 600 10,900 10,100 600 10,700 9,900 600 10,500

Aged 20-24 10,000 450 10,400 10,700 450 11,200 10,400 450 10,800 10,100 450 10,500 10,600 450 11,100

Aged 25-29 10,300 180 10,500 11,400 180 11,600 11,000 180 11,200 10,700 180 10,900 10,500 180 10,700

Aged 30-34 11,100 110 11,200 12,400 110 12,500 12,000 110 12,100 11,600 110 11,800 10,700 110 10,800

Aged 35-39 11,800 100 11,900 13,600 100 13,700 13,300 100 13,400 12,900 100 13,000 10,700 100 10,800

Aged 40-44 13,200 50 13,300 13,200 50 13,300 13,100 50 13,100 13,000 50 13,000 10,300 50 10,300

Aged 45-49 12,800 40 12,900 11,900 40 11,900 11,800 40 11,800 11,700 40 11,700 10,300 40 10,400

Aged 50-54 11,000 30 11,100 11,600 30 11,600 11,500 30 11,500 11,400 30 11,400 10,900 30 11,000

Aged 55-59 9,900 20 9,900 11,100 20 11,100 10,900 20 10,900 10,800 20 10,800 11,500 20 11,500

Aged 60-64 9,800 30 9,900 11,300 30 11,400 11,200 30 11,200 11,000 30 11,000 12,600 30 12,700

Aged 65-69 8,400 30 8,400 10,300 30 10,300 10,100 30 10,100 9,900 30 10,000 11,900 30 12,000

Aged 70-74 6,300 10 6,300 8,300 10 8,300 8,200 10 8,200 8,100 10 8,100 9,800 10 9,800

Aged 75-79 5,300 90 5,400 7,000 130 7,200 7,000 130 7,100 6,900 120 7,000 8,000 140 8,200

Aged 80-84 3,700 160 3,800 6,300 240 6,500 6,200 230 6,500 6,200 230 6,400 6,900 260 7,100

Aged 85+ 3,100 350 3,500 7,200 720 7,900 7,100 710 7,800 7,000 700 7,700 7,700 760 8,400

Total 169,300 2,670 172,000 192,400 3,150 195,500 188,600 3,130 191,800 184,900 3,120 188,000 182,300 3,230 185,500

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Household Projections

6.27 The Census identified that Wycombe District had a total population of 171,600 persons on 27 March 2011, of which 169,000 formed the household population with the remaining 2,700 resident in communal establishments. There were a total of 67,900 households with at least one usual resident, therefore an average household size of 2.49 persons.

6.28 The ONS Mid-2011 Population Estimate identified that Wycombe District had a total population of 172,000 persons at the end of June 2011, which suggests a household population of around 169,300 persons. By applying the headship rates (by age and gender) from the CLG 2008-based household projections, the ONS Mid-2011 Population Estimate translates to 69,100 households with an average household size of 2.45 persons. The headship rates from the CLG 2011-based household projections translate to 68,000 households in 2011, with an average household size of 2.49 persons.

6.29 It would appear that the CLG 2011-based headship rates provide a more realistic basis in the context of the current population. Nevertheless, it could be argued that the current economic circumstances are unrealistically suppressing household formation and if new households were more readily able to form and live independently, then headship rates might return to the levels assumed in the 2008-based projections.

Headship Rates are published as part of the household projections produced by CLG and are referenced in new draft Practice Guidance (2013). Headship Rates are a demographic tool used to convert population into households and are based on those members of the population who can be classed as “household representatives” or “heads of household”.

6.30 Given this context, the analysis has therefore considered the impact of both 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates on the projected number of households based on the High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios, after taking account of the population assumed to be living in communal establishments (Figure 84). The figures for 2011 have been rebased to 67,900 households for each scenario, to ensure consistency with the Census.

6.31 When comparing the Low-trend migration and Zero migration scenarios, although the Low-trend migration scenario yielded a marginally larger population by 2031 (188,200 cf. 185,500), the scenario yields a lower increase in household numbers over the same period (+9,300 cf. +10,300 households based on 2011 headship rates). This difference is mainly attributable to the number of children in the projected population, given that there were around 3,600 more people aged under 15 in the Low-trend migration scenario and none of these would be counted as household representatives. There are also further differences due to the age structures of the projected populations.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 84: Household projections 2011-31 comparing High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios

2008-based High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration 2011-based High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration

85,000

80,000

75,000

70,000

65,000 Numberof Households

60,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

6.32 Figure 85 summarises the projected number of households for each of the three migration-led population scenarios and each of the two headship rates.

6.33 This has then been converted to a dwelling requirement, taking the proportion of dwellings with no usual residents from the 2011 Census and assuming that this rate remains constant over the period to 2031. Any empty properties reintroduced into the stock would therefore contribute to the overall additional housing requirement identified.

6.34 On this basis, the number of additional dwellings implied by the household projection scenarios ranges from 9,600 dwellings up to 14,300 dwellings over the 20-year period to 2031, equivalent to a rate of between 480 and 720 dwellings per year.

Figure 85: Household projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios and 2008-based and 2011-based Headship Rates (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

2008-based Headship Rates 2011-based Headship Rates

High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration

Households

2011 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900 2031 81,700 80,400 79,100 79,700 79,700 78,400 77,100 78,100

Net change +13,800 +12,500 +11,200 +11,800 +11,800 +10,500 +9,300 +10,300

Dwellings

Additional occupied dwellings 13,800 12,500 11,200 11,800 11,800 10,500 9,300 10,300

Dwellings with no usual residents 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Total dwelling requirement 14,300 13,000 11,600 12,200 12,200 10,900 9,600 10,600

Annual average dwelling 720 650 580 610 610 550 480 530 requirement

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Summary of Key Findings

6.35 Figure 86 provide a summary of the key outputs presented in this chapter.

Figure 86: Population, labour force and household projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero

Migration Migration Migration Migration

Population Projections 2011 172,000 172,000 172,000 172,000 195,500 191,700 188,200 185,500 2031 +23,600 +19,800 +16,100 +13,600 Labour Force Projections

2011 92,600 92,600 92,600 92,600

2031 99,500 97,700 95,900 91,700 Future Economic Activity Rates held constant at 2011 rates +7,000 +5,100 +3,300 -800

2031 108,100 106,100 104,100 100,900 Future Economic Activity Rates projected based on UK-trends +15,500 +13,500 +11,500 +8,300 Household Projections 2011 67,900 67,900 67,900 67,900

2031 81,700 80,400 79,100 79,700 Future Headship based on rates from CLG 2008-based projections +13,800 +12,500 +11,200 +11,800

2031 79,700 78,400 77,100 78,100 Future Headship based on rates from CLG 2011-based projections +11,800 +10,500 +9,300 +10,300 Dwelling Requirement

2011-31 +14,300 +13,000 +11,600 +12,200 Future Headship based on rates from 720 per annum 650 per annum 580 per annum 610 per annum CLG 2008-based projections

2011-31 +12,200 +10,900 +9,600 +10,600 Future Headship based on rates from 610 per annum 550 per annum 480 per annum 530 per annum CLG 2011-based projections

6.36 Whilst this information establishes an appropriate range for the possible number of additional dwellings, it is necessary to consider what the most appropriate housing number would be. There are two primary considerations – namely the most appropriate migration scenario and the balance between the most recent and earlier headship rates.

6.37 On balance, we would suggest that the mid-trend migration scenario is the most appropriate starting point, given that this is based on 10-year trends and therefore provides the scenario least susceptible to exaggerating short-term patterns. The high- and low-trend migration scenarios provide a suitable context to understand the possible range of housing delivery that could be required; but unless there are clear

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

reasons to adopt a higher (or lower) housing number, the mid-trend migration scenario is likely to provide the most appropriate target.

6.38 Nevertheless, it is also important to recognise that migration to the district over the last 10 years was much higher than originally estimated, associated mainly with the accession of the A10 countries to the European Union. This change in migration patterns has clearly led to the trend-based population and household projections produced by the SHMA being higher than previous projections: the most recent CLG household projections suggest an average growth of only 380 households per year (with earlier projections ranging from 400 to 520 households each year) compared to a range of 470 to 590 households each year based on latest headship rates (and 560 to 690 per year based on previous headship rates).

6.39 Given that the projections based on the mid-trend migration scenario include the peak A10 migration, there is an argument that the housing number should perhaps be lower than this scenario would suggest; or at least that this scenario should perhaps be considered as an upper end to an appropriate range. It will also be important for the Council to monitor future migration levels to and from the district to ensure that any changing trends are identified, in particular following the introduction of National Government policies relating to international migration.

6.40 With regard to headship rates, we would note that the 2011-based rates were the most accurate estimates of actual headship rates in Wycombe at the time that the data was produced by CLG. The 2008-based rates were estimates projected forward from 2001 and earlier Census data, and it is evident from the 2011 Census that these rates were never actual rates for the district. Nevertheless, there is an argument that the 2011 rates reflected suppressed household formations, in part due to the recession and in part due to longer-term affordability trends; therefore there may be argument to plan for a housing number that is marginally higher than suggested by the 2011 rates, but lower than suggested by the 2008-based data.

6.41 Given this context, the SHMA has concluded that the objectively assessed need for housing in Wycombe is likely to be around 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings over the next 20 years. This is equivalent to around 550- 600 dwellings annually, notably higher than previous household projections from CLG.

Housing Market Signals

6.42 The draft National Planning Practice Guidance identifies a range of housing market signals that should be considered when determining the future housing number. These signals include: » Land prices and house prices; » Rents and affordability; » Rate of development; and » Overcrowding.

6.43 This report considers these factors as part of the wider housing market context for Wycombe, and the evidence identifies that many aspects the housing market changed significantly following the credit crunch and subsequent recession. For example, affordability (in terms of average earnings to average price, Figure 62) was previously much higher in Wycombe than across the wider South East region, but since 2009 the district has broadly been in line with the wider sub-region average.

6.44 It must be recognised that there is no single formula that can be used to consolidate the implications of this information; and furthermore the housing market signals will also have been influenced by the pressures introduced by increased international migration following A10 accession.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Chapter 6 Key Findings » Population projections based on the Mid-trend Migration scenario show the number of people increasing from 172,000 up to 191,700 over the period 2011 to 2031, an overall increase of 19,800 persons » The trend-based projections to 2031 range from 188,200 (based on the Low-trend Migration scenario) up to 195,500 (based on the High-trend Migration scenario) which represent 20-year increases of 16,100 persons and 23,600 persons respectively, with a range of 7,500 persons between the two scenarios » Based on current economic activity rates, the labour force is projected to increase by between 3,300 and 7,000 additional workers by 2031 » On the basis that economic activity rates will continue to increase in line with recent trends (increasing the number of workers in older age-cohorts and female workers of all ages), the labour force is likely to increase to between 104,100 and 108,100 workers by 2031, equivalent to an additional 11,500-15,500 extra workers » The number of people aged under 75 living in communal establishments is assumed to remain constant, however it is assumed that the proportion of population aged 75 or over living in communal establishments is held constant by gender. This implies that the communal establishment population would increase by around 450-480 bedspaces over the 20-year period to 2031 » The number of households is projected to increase to between 77,100 (based on the Low-trend Migration scenario with 2011-based Headship Rates) up to 81,700 (based on the High-trend Migration scenario with 2008-based Headship Rates) which represent 20-year increases of 9,300 households and 13,800 households respectively, with a range of 4,600 households between the two scenarios » The SHMA has concluded that the “objectively assessed need” for housing in Wycombe District is likely to be around 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings over the 20-year period to 2031; equivalent to a rate of between 550 and 600 dwellings per year

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

7. Duty to Co-operate Establishing the housing needs of adjoining areas and how those needs will be met

Overview

7.1 This Chapter outlines how the Council is seeking to ensure the production of the SHMA forms part of wider Duty to Co-operate (DtC) arrangements. A key principle underpinning the process is that the Council is committed to co-operating with neighbouring authorities on important issues arising from the SHMA.

7.2 There have been several examples of DtC processes which have been of concern to Inspectors ranging from issues of engagement to technical matters on key parts of the SHMA production: » Constructive engagement with neighbouring authorities (Coventry; January 2013/Kirklees; April 2013/Vale of Aylesbury; December 2013) » Comprehensive engagement with neighbouring authorities (Waverley; June 2013/Kirklees April 2013) » Net nil migration scenario as basis for requirements (Waverley; June 2013) » Meeting of housing requirements in neighbouring authorities (Hart; January 2013/ Waverley June 2013/Mid Sussex; 2013) » Defining the Housing Market Area (Bath & NE Somerset; September 2013)

Legal basis 7.3 Section 110 of the Localism Act 2011 amends section 33 of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 and imposes a ‘duty to co-operate’ on Councils who submit plans for Examination after 15 November 2011.

7.4 The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004) also requires that the local authority engage constructively with its neighbours.

Duty to Co-operate Guidance 7.5 Recent guidance on this process is contained in ‘A Simple Guide to Strategic Planning and the Duty to Co- operate’ produced by the Planning Advisory Service and in ‘Transition to the Localism Act and the NPPF’ produced by the Planning Officers Society.

National Planning Policy Framework (2012) 7.6 There are various parts of the NPPF relevant to the Duty to Co-operate: » Paragraph 181 of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) clarifies how co-operation should be a continuous process of engagement from initial thinking through to implementation. In determining whether the ‘duty to co-operate’ has been fulfilled it is necessary to consider

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

both the process that has been gone through and the outcome. The objective is effective plan- making. » Paragraph 181 of the NPPF notes that Local Planning Authorities will be expected to demonstrate evidence of having effectively co-operated to plan for issues with cross boundary impacts. » Paragraph 47 covers housing supply and needs around “objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area” » Paragraph 156 says ‘Local planning authorities should set out the strategic priorities for the area in the Local Plan. This should include strategic policies to deliver…the homes and jobs needed in the area;

Assessment of housing and economic development needs (draft 2013) 7.7 New Guidance on assessing housing market needs was published in draft in August 2013 and states: Local planning authorities should assess their development needs working with the other local authorities in the relevant housing market area or functional economic market area in line with the duty to cooperate. (Chapter 1, Page 5) The extent of the housing market areas identified will vary, and many will in practice cut across various local planning authority administrative boundaries. Local planning authorities should work with all the other constituent authorities under the duty to cooperate. (Chapter 2, Page 6)

Source: Assessment of housing and economic development needs (2013)

The Duty to Co-operate Process

7.8 As part of the development of the SHMA, a process of engagement has been followed between Wycombe District Council and neighbouring authorities; emerging SHMA outputs were shared and discussed as part of this process. The neighbouring authorities who were part of this process were:

» Aylesbury Vale District Council » Chiltern District Council » South Buckinghamshire District Council » Wokingham Borough Council » The Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead » South Oxfordshire District Council

7.9 The key issue which emerged from these discussions concerned the Housing Market Area and how this was defined and the evidence which established this. In response, the SHMA has sought to set out the evidence for the Housing Market Area. Wycombe District Council are continuing their dialogue with neighbouring authorities.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

The Wycombe Housing Market Area 7.10 Chapter 2 of this SHMA considers the historic and current evidence regarding the extent of the Wycombe Housing Market Area (HMA). This includes both historic assessments of the HMA area and their evolution, together with more recent demographic data.

7.11 On the basis of this evidence, the SHMA, therefore, concludes that the functional HMA for High Wycombe is a Housing Market Area which is not the same as the Wycombe District local authority but is the slightly larger area identified in Figure 87 below.

Figure 87: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading)

7.12 The assessment has also considered recent population, land distribution and travel to work and migration data shows that » Population: the substantial majority of the Wycombe HMA population (over 80%) live in the Wycombe local authority area and all of the local authority’s population live in the identified HMA. The other local authority areas each account for less than 20% of the HMA’s population.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

» Land distribution: it is apparent from land distribution that over two thirds of the Wycombe HMA falls within the Wycombe local authority area, with one third in other authority areas. » Travel to work: over 50% of people that work in the Wycombe HMA also live in the HMA (including London commutes); whilst almost 65% of people that live in the Wycombe HMA also work in the HMA if London commutes are excluded. » Migration patterns: When we consider migration patterns, a total of 10,100 residents currently living in the Wycombe HMA had moved from another address in the HMA in the 12 months prior to the Census.

7.13 The definition for a Housing Market Area sets out that it is the area “where most of those changing house without changing employment choose to stay”. Unfortunately, no data is available that relates migration with changes in employment circumstances; but given that most working people will live relatively close to their job, it is reasonable to assume that those migrants moving longer distances will tend to also change their place of work.

7.14 Therefore, in planning the appropriate location of any new housing provision, Wycombe District Council will need to work in partnership with neighbouring authorities to ensure that housing is provided in the most appropriate location in the context of the entire HMA.

7.15 A recent Inspector finding regarding HMA areas considered an approach, on the basis of evidence, of a District only basis towards the HMA (Bath & North East Somerset; September 2013) and said:

7.16 ‘However, the NPPF’s clear advice (paragraph 159) is that SHMAs should be based on HMAs. If there is sufficient alignment between a SHMA and the main HMA relating to a district it would be unjustified to require a Council to undertake a SHMA covering a multi-authority area.’

7.17 Albeit, the Inspector also highlighted the following issues regarding how this position may develop on the basis of: » Newly available evidence: If the new data indicates a change in HMA boundaries sufficient to justify a revised approach, then this should be undertaken. » Positive partnership working: the local authority should still respond positively to partnership working with its neighbours on housing needs issues and with the Local Economic Partnership.

Projected Household Growth and Housing delivery 7.18 The Figure below considers projected demand from household growth (using CLG Household projections) and potential identified supply (using local authority data). The inability to meet demand from projected supply raises implications for the meeting of housing requirements identified in the SHMA. All authorities in the table have either a connection to the Housing Market Area or have a relatively close proximity. The table shows that each authority has a future site supply to meet need although the forward timeline for this varies.

7.19 Discussions with the authorities indicate that they all recognise demand for new homes within the Housing Market Area is strong mainly due to relatively successful local economies, its attractiveness and the proximity of London employment market. However, the co-operation process has highlighted, too, the complexity of delivering new homes; a combination of Green Belt, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty and flood risk raise significant challenges within the supply chain alongside core delivery issues of land supply and viability.

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Figure 88: Comparison of Housing Demand and Supply in the HMA (Source: CLG, AMR, SHLAA; further details provided overleaf)

Aylesbury South South Windsor & Wycombe Chiltern Slough Wokingham Vale Bucks Oxon Maidenhead HOUSING DEMAND CLG Household Projections (Annual Average) 2006- 10 years: 400 1,100 200 200 200 400 700 500 based 2006-16 25 years: 400 1,000 200 240 200 400 640 520 2006-31 2008- 10 years: 500 700 200 600 400 400 800 1,000 based 2008-18 25 years: 520 720 280 600 360 440 760 920 2008-33 Interim 10 years: 380 990 210 900 310 360 700 980 2011- 2011-21 based 25 years: not ------published Range (lowest to highest) 380-520 700-1100 200-280 200-900 200-400 360-440 640-800 500-1000 Average (mean) 440 900 220 510 290 400 720 780 Average (median) 400 990 200 600 310 400 700 920 HOUSING SUPPLY Annual Housing Target from Annual Monitoring 403 675 132 315 110 547 346 661 Report Net difference from average (median) CLG 0 -320 -70 -290 -200 +150 -350 -260 Household Projections Percentage difference from CLG Household 0.0% -31.8% -34.0% -47.5% -64.5% +36.8% -50.6% -28.2% Projections Total Housing Land Supply identified by 6,528 8,212 1,298 7,827 2,328 10,389 5,942 12,380 SHLAA Housing land supply period based on AMR 16 12 9 24 21 18 17 18 target (years) Notes: 1. The median average from the last two full rounds and the more recent interim CLG household projections has been adopted for comparison purposes. This provides a better estimate than the mean average, as the median is not influenced by any extreme values. There may be local reasons why CLG household projections are not appropriate for establishing objectively assessed need for individual local authority areas, but they do provide an appropriate starting point for such analysis. 2. Whilst Slough is not an immediate neighbouring authority, data for the area has been included in the analysis due to its function links with Wycombe, in particular in relation to travel to work patterns. 3. All AMR targets are based on the South East Plan, with the exception of Aylesbury Vale. The target for Aylesbury Vale is now uncertain following the Inspector’s report on the recent examination. 4. Approaches to SHLAAs tend to vary significantly in the way they identify sites and account for them. The figures presented in this table have not been adjusted to take account of any differences in methodology; the figures simply seek to provide a high-level context, so any comparisons should be undertaken with care.

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Source

General AMR targets do not take under and over delivery into account Annual Housing Target: Wycombe Total Housing Land Supply Source: Wycombe District Council SHLAA 2009; Page 5 Table 0.5 http://wycombe.searchimprove.com/search.aspx?Pckid=1527932557&Aid=465868&sw=SHLAA Annual Housing Target: AMR Monitoring Report 2012 Page 21 Table; SEP Target 2013-18 6723 http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/planning-policy/monitoring-information/annual-monitoring-report/ Aylesbury Vale Total Housing Land Supply Source: Aylesbury Vale District Council SHLAA March 2013; Page 25 Table 1 and Page 90; 7.0 Overall Conclusions http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/search/?s=a&k=SHLAA Annual Housing Target: AMR 2011-12Page 19 para 3.0 http://www.chiltern.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=1998&p=0 Total Housing Land Supply Source: Chiltern District Council SHLAA Update 2013; Page 7, 3 Results Chiltern http://www.chiltern.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=2891&p=0 The total land supply available ranged from 930 and 1,298. The table above uses the upper return of 1,298. The lower limit of 930 would have a housing land supply period of 7 years. Annual Housing Target: AMR 2012-13 Page 1 Para 1 http://www.southbucks.gov.uk/environment_planning/planning/local_development_framework/annual_monitoring_report .aspx South Bucks Total Housing Land Supply Source: South Buckinghamshire District Council SHLAA 2009; Executive Summary Page iv http://www.southbucks.gov.uk/environment_planning/planning/local_development_framework/background_studies/strate gic_housing_land_availability_assessment/default.aspx Annual Housing Target: AMR 2011-12 Page 11 para 4.7 http://www.southoxon.gov.uk/services-and-advice/planning-and-building/planning-policy/local-development- South Oxon framework/authoritys-mon Total Housing Land Supply Source: Interim 5 year supply of Deliverable Sites pages 11 and 12 http://www.southoxon.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Interim%205%20year%20Supply%20of%20Deliverable%20Sites.pdf Annual Housing Target: AMR 2010 Housing Core Indicator H1 Page 6 Windsor & http://www.rbwm.gov.uk/public/pp_amr2010_report.pdf Maidenhead Total Housing Land Supply Source: Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead SHLAA 2011; Page 8, 3.1 Findings http://www.rbwm.gov.uk/web/pp_shlaa.htm Annual Housing Target: AMR 2012 Table Page 11 http://www.wokingham.gov.uk/planning/policy/ldf/amr/ Wokingham Total Housing Land Supply Source: Wokingham District Council Summary SHLAA 2013; Appendix 5, Page 59 Table A5.1 http://www.wokingham.gov.uk/planning/policy/housing/shlaa/ Total housing land supply has been taken as 2006-26 total land supply before flex minus completions. Annual Housing Target: AMR 2011-12 Para 5.12 Page 25 http://www.slough.gov.uk/council/strategies-plans-and-policies/annual-monitoring-report.aspx Total housing land supply: Slough BC AMR 2011–12 Page 25 Housing requirement 2006-26 6,300 (315pa) Slough http://www.slough.gov.uk/council/strategies-plans-and-policies/annual-monitoring-report.aspx and SHLAA 2010 Page 19 para 9.3 7,827 homes over the plan period or 391 pa http://www.slough.gov.uk/council/strategies-plans-and-policies/evidence-monitoring-and-information.aspx

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

8. Modelling Future Housing Mix Establishing the type and tenure of housing required

8.1 The ORS Housing Mix Model considers both housing need and overall housing requirements on a longer- term basis, providing robust and credible evidence about the required mix of housing over the full planning period and understanding how key housing market drivers (such as affordability) will impact on the appropriate housing mix.

8.2 The model uses a wide range of secondary data sources to build on existing household projections and profile how the housing stock will need to change in order to accommodate the projected future population. These secondary data sources are readily updateable as new information is published, and a range of assumptions can be varied to enable effective sensitivity testing to be undertaken. In particular, the model has been designed to help understand the key issues and provide insight into how different assumptions will impact on the required mix of housing over future planning periods.

8.3 Figure 89 provides a detailed overview of the structure of the Housing Mix Model and the way in which the different stages of the model interact. » The left hand section of the diagram considers households in terms of the baseline population and projected household growth, and their associated affordability and housing requirements. » The right hand section of the diagram considers the dwelling stock in terms of the tenure and housing costs for both the existing stock and the recent housing completions.

Figure 89: Detailed Overview of the ORS Housing Mix Model (Note: Social Rented Housing also includes Affordable Rent)

Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Overview of the Modelling Process

8.4 The Housing Mix Model considers the projected household population alongside the existing dwelling stock in order to establish the necessary balance between Market Housing and Affordable Housing in relation to the additional dwellings to be provided, and within the Affordable Housing dwelling provision the appropriate role of Intermediate Affordable Housing, Affordable Rent and Social Rent Housing.

8.5 The first stage of the model starts by separating households into two groups, owners and non-owners, on the basis of baseline information about existing households from the Census.

8.6 Household projections do not typically provide information about changing tenure patterns so the model estimates the number of households likely to become owners and non-owners on the basis of an affordability assessment. The affordability assessment considers both the likely affordability of newly forming households and the changing affordability patterns of existing households.

8.7 The model also takes account of the dissolution of households that are existing owner occupiers that is projected to occur over the household projection period. This is based on Government Actuaries Department survival rates and Census data on the tenure mix for older households. This enables the loss of owner occupiers to be offset against any new owners identified through the affordability analysis.

8.8 The outcome is to establish the number of households who are owners and non-owners at each stage of the household projection.

8.9 In developing the Housing Model, ORS recognised the need for local level data about household incomes and originally secured a licence to use the CACI Paycheck data within the model. This dataset provides information at postcode level, detailing the mean and median income for the area and also the number of households in each £5,000 income band. ORS has compared this distribution to that obtained using ORS collected household survey data and has found that the results from the CACI model tend to under- estimate the proportion of households in the lower income bands.

8.10 ORS has developed and applied a tool that improves the accuracy of the distribution of local household incomes. The model integrates existing household survey data with local secondary data sources including income data from the Annual Population Survey (and previously the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings) together with national secondary data sources including the Retail Price Index. The ORS Income Model also identifies the income distribution of owners and non-owners to directly inform the Housing Mix Model affordability profiling.

8.11 By taking information from the Land Registry transaction database, it is possible to profile the distribution of purchase prices for transactions over time across a given area. Combining the Land Registry data with information from the 2001 Census on the balance between owner occupiers and private renters, specific to the location and property type of each sale, the model establishes the likelihood of the transaction being a property that will be occupied by the purchaser or let privately.

8.12 The Housing Mix Model considers housing cost distribution profiles for both owned and privately rented housing in order to establish the distribution of incomes required to access all market housing. This profile is considered alongside the income distribution profile for non-owners. The household income threshold for market housing is set at the lowest level where there is sufficient market housing available. If there is less market housing available than households can afford, ‘affordable’ housing will be required to address the shortfall and therefore the threshold price for market housing must be set above this level.

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8.13 Once the income threshold for market housing has been established, the Housing Mix Model estimates the number of households who are non-owners that can afford market housing. Combining this with the projected number of owner occupiers estimates the total number of households requiring market housing within the area.

8.14 The requirement for affordable housing is estimated by subtracting the total number of households requiring market housing from the overall household projections.

8.15 The Housing Mix Model considers the need for social rent/affordable rent housing on the basis of social trends. The social trends for each household type, for example, single person or single parent households, are then applied to the household projection data to establish the level of social rented requirement for future years for each type of household. The model establishes a total requirement for social rent/ affordable rent housing.

8.16 The requirement for intermediate affordable housing is estimated by offsetting the total number of households requiring social rent/affordable rent housing from the projected number of households requiring affordable housing overall.

8.17 To establish the current housing stock profile, the Model considers the baseline housing stock from the 2001 Census broken down by tenure. It supplements this information with data on housing completions broken down by tenure reported in local authority annual monitoring reports. The Housing Mix Model also considers data on losses from the affordable housing stock based on right-to-buy sales, and projects the likely future losses from stock on the basis of trends in sales since the recent change in legislation.

8.18 The Housing Mix Model considers the future requirement for market housing alongside the current stock of market housing and establishes the net additional dwellings that are required as market housing.

8.19 The future requirement for intermediate affordable housing is considered alongside the stock of existing intermediate affordable housing and the stock of sub-market housing, which is affordable to households on incomes below the income threshold for market housing, to establish the net additional dwellings that are required to be provided as intermediate affordable housing.

8.20 The future requirement for social rented housing is considered alongside the stock of existing social rented housing to establish the net additional dwellings that are required to be provided as social rented housing.

8.21 The Housing Mix Model considers the size and tenure of housing that was occupied by different household types recorded by the 2001 Census. The Model recognises that many households under-occupy their homes, choosing to live in larger properties than they need on the basis of the bedroom standard set out in the Housing Act. However, housing allocation policies mean that new social tenants are less likely to under- occupy their homes.

8.22 A trend-based occupancy profile is applied to the projected household mix of households in each housing tenure to establish an overall size mix of future housing requirements. This is then set alongside information about the existing housing stock to establish the net additional dwellings that are required by size and tenure. The SHMA considers the broad scale of demand relating to neighbouring authorities, adjacent to Wycombe District, for 2011-2031.

8.23 Any additional strategic allocation would increase the overall population and number of households, and therefore the requirements for additional housing. The need for such an allocation is therefore best considered after a local baseline is established, when it is possible to understand the extent to which migration is already being considered.

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8.24 This would still leave the issue of the strategic requirements for adjoining areas which may need to be delivered in Wycombe District and these can only be understood by comparing land capacity in those areas against their projected growth. Therefore, it is important for WDC to continue to work with its neighbouring authorities, under the Duty to Co-operate, to identify its role in meeting sub-regional housing requirements.

Housing Supply 8.25 National Planning Policy Framework March 2012 contains the following statements on the supply of new dwellings across all tenures. » Affordable housing: Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. » Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers (as defined in section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency. » Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable). » Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not Affordable Rent housing. » Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning purposes.

8.26 Affordable Rent is now likely to be developed in place of Social Rent due to changes in the Government’s grant funding system.

8.27 The key issue these definitions raise is how to define market housing costs. In practice the very cheapest second hand open market dwellings can be cheaper than any intermediate (and on some occasions social rented) dwelling. Therefore, for the definitions in the NPPF to have practical relevance there is a need to identify a market housing threshold price which then sets the upper limit for the cost of intermediate affordable housing products.

8.28 On this point, SHMA Practice Guidance (Chapter 3, page 27) states that for house prices, ‘Entry-level prices should be approximated by lower-quartile house prices’. The cheapest available property prices should not be used since these often reflect sub-standard quality or environmental factors,’ and for private rents, ‘As with house prices, lower-quartile rents should be used to estimate the entry level’. Therefore SHMA Practice Guidance identifies that the threshold point for market housing commences at the lowest quartile for owner occupation and private rents. In practice private rents are more affordable in Wycombe District

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than owner occupation, so it is these which define the point where market housing costs begin and act as the upper limit for intermediate affordable housing costs. This also means the threshold for market housing is dependent upon private rents, so if these rise then fewer households will be able to afford intermediate housing.

8.29 This issue is very important because the NPPF is predominantly about the delivery of new dwellings. However, while the ORS Housing Market Model is also in part about the delivery of new dwellings, the majority of households requiring accommodation will be housed in the existing housing stock of Wycombe District. Therefore, while the NPPF sets out clear definitions for newbuild dwellings, the role of second hand housing makes the classification of dwellings by tenure much more complicated.

8.30 Such an example is housing which is available to those who can afford no more than Target Social Rents. For this group, it is possible to consider the supply to comprise dedicated supply such as RP lettings, but also housing benefit supported private rented dwellings. The rationale for this is to recall the NPPF definition of households in housing need (as outlined in Chapter 5 of SHMA Practice Guidance) and the requirement for financial assistance within the definition: » Housing need is: ‘Households who are lacking their own housing or who are living in housing which is judged to be inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their own housing needs in the market without some financial assistance.’

8.31 Whilst housing benefit supported private rent does not have the same tenancy rights as full social rent, it nevertheless contributes to the effective supply of affordable housing in that it is affordable to households who require social housing. In practical terms there is a shortage of Affordable Rent/Social Rent housing and households unable to access it will seek housing in the private rented sector with housing benefit support.

8.32 Similarly, further supply assumptions can be considered for intermediate affordable housing. The current supply of dedicated intermediate housing products in Wycombe District as defined by the NPPF is relatively small. However, Wycombe District has a large private rented sector. The lower quartile private rented sector falls below the entry threshold for ‘market’ housing as defined by the NPPF and SHMA Practice guidance. While not enjoying the same tenancy or ownership rights as dedicated intermediate affordable housing products, cheaper (lower quartile) private rented properties are affordable to households within the intermediate affordable housing income band and are counted as part of the supply to this group of households in a number of the scenarios set out below.

8.33 Support for these positions can be found in SHMA Practice Guidance where is it noted, (Chapter 5, Stage 4: The Housing Requirements of Households in Need Page 49) ‘Furthermore, some households in need may choose to live in the private rented sector (possibly with the use of housing benefit) or housing that would be classified as unsuitable, even though they are eligible for affordable housing’.

8.34 This leads to a conclusion there are a number of private sector dwellings which are not market housing under the NPPF and SHMA Practice Guidance definitions because they are below market rents thresholds. Similarly, they are not intermediate or social supply under the NPPF definition because they are not a dedicated supply of affordable housing.

8.35 However, lower quartile private rented and housing benefit supported private rented sector dwellings will continue to be occupied by households despite not meeting the definition of market, intermediate or social housing in the NPPF. When considering the appropriate housing supply, the following sources of supply are therefore considered within the model:

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» Social rented housing – social housing provided to rent from local authorities and Registered Social Landlords, Affordable Rent with housing benefit support and housing benefit supported private rented accommodation at 2011 levels; » Intermediate housing – dedicated intermediate housing products (such as shared ownership, discount market sale, sub-market rent but not shared equity sales), Affordable Rent without housing benefit support and a proportion of the housing in the private rented sector with rents below the market rent threshold (i.e. within the lowest quartile); and » Market housing – owner-occupied housing and housing in the private rented sector above market rent thresholds.

Understanding Housing Requirements

8.36 Using the NPPF and SHMA Practice Guidance definitions, affordability tests are used to apportion households to specific housing tenures; » Social rent/Affordable rent housing – for those households unable to afford any more than social rents without housing benefit support; » Intermediate housing – for those households able to afford more than social rents, but unable to afford to buy owner-occupied housing or to rent privately at the market rent threshold; and » Market housing – for those households able to afford to buy owner-occupied housing or able to afford to rent privately at rents at or above the market rent threshold.

8.37 The requirement for housing is therefore defined purely on affordability grounds with those who have incomes above market housing thresholds being identified as requiring market housing. It is also the case that those with incomes below market housing thresholds who report no difficulties with their housing costs are also identified as requiring market housing because, using the NPPF definition: » Housing need is households who are lacking their own housing or who are living in housing which is judged to be inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their own housing needs in the market without some financial assistance.

8.38 On this basis households meeting their own housing requirements in the market are deemed to be suitably housed, do not require financial assistance and are not in housing need.

8.39 Next we have modelled local incomes of existing households to determine the income distribution of those households without existing equity (non-owners). This enables us to start to distinguish between households who may have no choice but to seek affordable housing and those who can afford market housing. It is assumed that most households with equity who intend to move have the means to access market housing whether owned or rented. This is because equity extends the spending power of households when they are seeking to move home.

Core Modelling Assumptions 8.40 For the current document we wish to be explicit on the assumptions which underlie the model. For the results presented, the following assumptions are contained within the model: » The housing stock, the size of the private rented sector and the number of HMOs are held at their configuration at the time of the 2011 Census;

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» Mortgage multiplier used is 3.5, so households are able to borrow up to 3.5 times their household income; » Households can spend up to 25% of their income for rent in accordance with CLG Practice Guidance recommendations; » The annual rental yield for private rented dwellings is 6.0%. This is the rate of return on private rented dwellings so a property valued at £100,000 is assumed to yield a rent of £6,000 per annum. There are no official statistical sources for rental yields, so the figure used in the model is based on local house prices and rents; » House prices are set as a baseline rate of their levels for the period January-December 2012; » A vacancy rate on households to dwellings of 3.4% for all new build dwellings; » It is assumed that any right to buy/right to acquire sales since 2001 are required to be replaced within the model by additional new build of social rented dwellings. This is due a right to buy/right to acquire sales representing a loss of a social rented dwelling without any reduction in the number of households seeking social rent, so each sale require a new build to replace it. Projected right to buy/right to acquire sales are based upon average number of sales since 2008; » Intermediate affordable housing is housing whose cost is above target social rents, but below the cost of market housing (rent or owner occupier). Therefore, intermediate affordable housing it must be cheaper than the cost of renting a dwelling at the lower quartile of private rents; » The period for results is 2011-2031; » All figures are rounded to the nearest 100.

Key Findings: 2011 to 2031 8.41 To model the housing requirements of Wycombe District we initially run the model based on affordability at 2012 average price levels and with the housing stock in its 2011 configuration can therefore be summarised as in the following figures.

8.42 It should be understood that, within the definitions set out in the National Planning Policy Framework, intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents above those of social rent, but below market price or rents.

8.43 Figure 90 shows the modelled outputs based upon the range of households projections discussed in chapter 6.

8.44 The model shows that providing fewer dwellings will marginally reduce the requirement for social and intermediate housing, but will mainly impact on the market housing requirement. The reason behind this result is that a lower level of completions will not significantly impact upon the requirements of those seeking affordable housing as these low income households do not typically have options to move elsewhere. However, higher levels of development will attract more migrants who typically occupy market sector dwellings – and conversely, lower levels of development will lead to more local households that can afford market housing considering their housing options outside the district, thereby leading to higher levels of out-migration from this group. Both consequences (less in migration and more out migration) lead to a lower level of net migration to the area.

8.45 The overall housing tenure mix required for Wycombe District can therefore be summarised as in the following figures. Clearly the growth which has already occurred in the private rented sector, HMOs and

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conversions over the last decade has helped to absorb some of the intermediate housing requirement. Meanwhile, when the changes are applied this bring down the amount of market stock available in Wycombe District.

Figure 90: Overall Housing Requirement 2011-2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios and 2008-based and 2011-based Headship Rates (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)

2008-based Headship Rates 2011-based Headship Rates

High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero High-trend Mid-trend Low-trend Zero Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration Migration

Housing Requirement

Market housing 5,400 4,600 3,700 4,100 4,200 3,300 2,500 3,100

Intermediate affordable housing 6,100 5,800 5,500 5,700 6,200 5,900 5,600 5,900

Social rent/affordable rent housing 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,400 1,800 1,700 1,500 1,600

Overall housing requirement 14,300 13,000 11,600 12,200 12,200 10,900 9,600 10,600

Annual average dwelling 720 650 580 610 610 550 480 530 requirement

% of Overall Housing Requirement

Market housing 38.1% 35.3% 31.8% 33.6% 34.1% 30.5% 25.9% 29.7%

Intermediate affordable housing 42.6% 44.8% 47.6% 47.0% 50.9% 54.3% 58.6% 55.4%

Social rent/affordable rent housing 19.3% 19.9% 20.6% 19.4% 15.0% 15.2% 15.5% 14.9%

8.46 It is important not to view the large requirement for intermediate housing as a dwelling target. In practice the model is projecting that many existing dwellings currently occupied by a single households will gradually become HMOs or converted dwellings which will meet the requirements of more than one household who are unable to afford market prices, but can afford to meet part of the cost of a market property.

8.47 For social housing, the requirement identified is that which would be necessary to prevent the number of households in the private rented sector with housing benefit support from rising. Recent policy changes will encourage more social housing requirements to be met in the private rented sector. These include:

Priority Need Homeless No Longer Able to Refuse Private Sector Housing Previously, homeless applicants whom local authorities had a duty to house under Part 7 of the Housing Act 1996 could refuse an offer of private sector accommodation. Under the Localism Act 2011, priority need households are no longer be able to refuse the offer of a private sector dwelling. WDC adopted this policy in early 2013. The main aim of this change is to reduce the pressures on the social housing stock as most priority need is currently met in social rent. However, the indirect result of the change is that further demands are placed upon the private rented sector as Councils increasingly seek to house their priority need households outside the social rented sector.

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Extending the Limit for a Single Person Receiving a Bedsit Allowance to 35 Years of Age Previously, any single person aged 24 years or younger is entitled to only the bedsit LHA, rather the allowance for a self-contained dwelling. In January 2012 this was extended to any single person aged 34 years or younger. The bedsit allowance enables the single person only to pay for a share of a dwelling. Therefore, a major impact of this change is likely to be a rise in the demand for shared accommodation within HMOs. More single persons will be forced to share accommodation for longer and this is likely to see more of the existing housing stock turned over to HMOs.

Scenario Testing 8.48 SHMA Practice Guidance notes that that outputs from modelling the housing market should be sensitivity tested. Within the ORS Housing Model it is possible to vary many characteristics. Below we have chosen to illustrate these with two examples which have implications for the required volume of social rent and intermediate housing required.

The Role of Housing Benefit in the Private Rented Sector

8.49 The model results outlined above assume that housing benefit in the private rented sector is held at its current levels to 2031. As outlined earlier in this report, the housing benefit supported private rented sector has grown in recent years in line with the trend for England as a whole, so it plays a key role in meeting housing need in the area.

8.50 The modelled outputs below show the theoretical impact of seeking to remove all housing benefit in the private rented sector. Any attempt to reduce the number of housing benefit claimants in the private rented sector would require a larger Social Rent/Affordable Rent figure to be provided, and to eliminate all dependency on housing benefit in the private rented sector would need almost 40% of all properties to be delivered as Social Rent/Affordable Rent. However, the model projects that the properties released (i.e. typically cheaper private rented properties) would provide a housing supply that would be affordable to households within the intermediate affordability category: so the requirement for intermediate housing is seen to reduce, with little impact on either the demand or supply of market housing (i.e. above lowest quartile prices).

Figure 91: Theoretical impact of reducing Housing Benefit support for households living in private rented housing: Housing mix 2011-31 based on Mid-trend Migration and 2011-based Headship Rates

Market housing Intermediate affordable housing Social rent/Affordable rent

No change 30% 54% 15%

25% reduction 30% 48% 21%

50% reduction 30% 42% 27%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

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Affordability Assumptions

8.51 The model results outlined above assume that households will contribute 25% of their gross income to pay rent and that they could borrow up to 3.5x their gross income to support home purchase. These rates were set out as norms in the 2007 SHMA Practice Guidance, but it is important to consider the impact of alternative rates.

8.52 Figure 92 and Figure 93 illustrate the impact of varying the mortgage multiplier and proportion of income allocated for rent. It is clear that providing households with access to higher levels of borrowing increases the requirement for market housing and reduces the need for intermediate affordable housing. If households pay more than 25% of their income on housing costs, then more are able to afford market rent and again there is less need for intermediate affordable housing.

8.53 Prior to the recession, there was less restriction on lending and mortgage multiples above 3.5x were more common. More recently, it has become more difficult to secure credit (in particular for households without existing equity or a significant deposit); but many households are having to pay more than 25% of their income on rent as their incomes are too high to qualify for housing benefit and they have limited alternative housing options. In practice, however, this does mean that the demand for market housing is stronger than the basic model outputs perhaps suggest.

Figure 92: Impact of alternative affordability multipliers for mortgage borrowing: Housing mix 2011-31 based on Mid-trend Migration and 2011-based Headship Rates

Market housing Intermediate affordable housing Social rent/Affordable rent

3.0x multiplier 17% 68% 15%

3.5x multiplier 30% 54% 15%

4.0x multiplier 54% 31% 15% 4.5x multiplier 67% 18% 15% 5.0x multiplier 78% 7% 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Figure 93: Impact of alternative affordability multipliers for rental payments: Housing mix 2011-31 based on Mid-trend Migration and 2011-based Headship Rates

Market housing Intermediate affordable housing Social rent/Affordable rent

20% of income 5% 80% 15%

25% of income 30% 54% 15%

30% of income 54% 31% 15% 35% of income 72% 13% 15% 40% of income 85% 15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

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Estimate of the Size of Housing Required 8.54 The model also estimated the size mix for all tenures and shows the market requirement is more heavily focused on 3 bedroom plus properties, while predominantly smaller dwelling sizes are required in the affordable housing sectors. The outputs are based upon the mid migration scenario, but all scenarios show a similar distribution pattern based on the core assumptions.

Figure 94: Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures represented by “-“ show any shortfall or surplus which is less than 50, although this will normally be greater than 0. Figures may not sum due to rounding)

8.55 It is evident from the analysis that there is a substantial requirement for intermediate affordable housing (based on the assumptions previously set out) – but Figure 92 and Figure 93 show that alternative affordability multipliers can have a substantial impact on the overall housing mix. By assuming that households will spend up to 30% of their income on housing costs and also increasing the mortgage multiplier to 4.0x the model shows a markedly different mix of housing.

8.56 This change in the assumptions significantly increases the demand for market housing: from 3,300 to 8,300 additional homes over the 20-year period; which is offset by a lower requirement for intermediate affordable housing. It is also worth noting that the need for social rent/affordable rent than accounts for almost two thirds (63%) of the overall affordable housing required.

Figure 95: Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates, assuming 30% of income for housing costs and a 4.0x mortgage multiplier (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures represented by “-“ show any shortfall or surplus which is less than 50, although this will normally be greater than 0. Figures may not sum due to rounding)

Affordable Housing Market TOTAL Housing Intermediate Social Rent/ Housing Affordable Rent Housing Requirement 1 bedroom 700 200 700 1,600 2 bedrooms 1,500 500 500 2,400 3 bedrooms 4,100 300 400 4,800 4+ bedrooms 2,000 - 100 2,100 Overall housing requirement 8,300 1,000 1,700 10,900 Percentage of total requirement 75.7% 9.0% 15.2% 100.0%

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8.57 In practice, it is likely that many households are currently spending more than 25% of their income on housing costs and many of those able to buy are often borrowing more than 3.5x their income (especially for those that have lower loan to value ratios) – so it is arguable that the above analysis is a more accurate reflection of current housing demand. Nevertheless, just because many households have to spend high proportions of their incomes on housing does not mean that future housing needs should be measured on this basis – there are many households in Wycombe that are in housing need and can only access market housing by allocating large proportions of their income to housing, which may not be sustainable longer- term.

8.58 When we consider the differences in housing mix, it is apparent that the overall requirement for larger homes increases with the change in assumptions. This is due to affordable housing being allocated based on the size of home “needed”, whilst market housing takes account of under-occupation. Given the affordability difficulties evident, it may actually be more appropriate to provide smaller market homes at a lower price than the raw model outputs would suggest.

8.59 Considering those households previously allocated intermediate affordable housing but who are able to afford market housing when the higher affordability multipliers are assumed, if we were to allocate them properties based on the size of home needed (without any assumed under-occupation) then the following mix of housing would be required. Note that those households able to afford market housing in both scenarios will still include an element of under-occupation; only those originally requiring intermediate affordable housing are allocated housing using the bedroom standard.

Figure 96: Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates, assuming 30% of income for housing costs and a 4.0x mortgage multiplier with market housing for those households with “borderline” affordability allocated based on the bedroom standard (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures represented by “-“ show any shortfall or surplus which is less than 50, although this will normally be greater than 0. Figures may not sum due to rounding)

Affordable Housing Market TOTAL Housing Intermediate Social Rent/ Housing Affordable Rent

Housing Requirement

1 bedroom 1,000 200 700 1,900

2 bedrooms 2,200 500 500 3,100

3 bedrooms 3,600 300 400 4,300

4+ bedrooms 1,500 - 100 1,600

Overall housing requirement 8,300 1,000 1,700 10,900

Percentage of total requirement 75.7% 9.0% 15.2% 100.0%

Proportion of requirement for each type of housing

1 bedroom 12% 23% 44% 18%

2 bedrooms 26% 49% 27% 28%

3 bedrooms 44% 25% 25% 39%

4+ bedrooms 18% 3% 3% 14%

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8.60 On this basis, it is apparent that the most appropriate mix is likely to include: » Market housing: around two-fifths 1 or 2 bedroom dwellings, a further two-fifths 3 bedroom homes and the remaining fifth being dwellings with 4 or more bedrooms; » Intermediate affordable housing: around a quarter 1 bedroom dwellings, a half with 2 bedrooms, a quarter being three bedroom homes and only a small requirement for intermediate affordable housing with 4 or more bedrooms; and » Social rent/affordable rent housing: around two-fifths being 1 bedroom, a quarter with 2 bedrooms, a further quarter with 3 bedrooms and a small proportion with 4 or more bedrooms.

8.61 Nevertheless, in relation to social rent and affordable rent housing it is important to consider the Council’s obligations to focus on those households in priority need. Whilst the Council’s housing register (operated through “Bucks Home Choice”) does not directly inform the model’s analysis of affordable housing needs over the 20-year projection period, it does provide a useful context about those households currently seeking affordable housing.

8.62 In December 2013, a total of 3,611 applicants were currently on the Housing Register, of which 2,082 were likely to remain on the register after new eligibility criteria had been introduced. This included 624 persons aged 55 or over, 795 persons assessed to be in Band D (and therefore in low housing need) and 663 in priority bands A-C (45% of all applicants aged under 55).

8.63 Figure 97 compares the size of properties required to meet the needs of those applicants aged under 55 and in priority bands A-C. It is apparent that the Housing Register suggests a notably lower requirement for one-bed properties (18% cf. 44%), but these results are not necessarily inconsistent given that the housing register analysis excludes those applicants aged 55 or over, whereas older households represent a significant proportion of the overall growth in households – and almost all of those older households that need social rent will require only one bedroom. On this basis, Figure 97 also shows the size mix with an allowance for applicants aged 55+ (assuming that of the 624 persons aged 55+ currently on the register, 45% are in priority need).

Figure 97: Housing Register Applicants aged under 55 and in Priority Bands A-C: Size Mix of Housing Requirement compared with Modelled Size Mix for Social Rent/Affordable Rent (Source: Buck Home Choice)

Priority Bands A-C Housing Mix Priority Bands A-C plus (aged under 55) Model: allowance for applicants 55+ Social Rent/ Number Percentage Affordable Number Percentage Rent

Applicants aged 55+ - - - 281 45% assumed to be priority need 42% 1 bedroom 117 18% 44% 117

2 bedrooms 303 46% 27% 303 32%

3 bedrooms 162 24% 25% 162 17%

4+ bedrooms 81 12% 4% 81 9%

Total 663 100% 100% 975 100%

8.64 When the needs of older persons are factored in to the analysis, the housing register suggests a similar size mix to the model results – although the housing register does identify more need for properties with four or more bedrooms than suggested by the model (with a proportionately lower need for three-bed homes). This difference is likely to be attributed to the immediate and current nature of the housing register whilst

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the model is considering the overall mix on the basis of a 20-year period. In practice, there are very few social rent/affordable rent properties with four or more bedrooms. Whilst this stock may become available during the period to 2031, the vacancies may not arise soon enough to address the priority needs that exist today. In determining the most appropriate mix of social rent/affordable rent housing, the Council will need to balance the requirements identified by the model for the 20-year period alongside the more immediate needs of those households currently in priority need.

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9. Specialist Housing Needs Housing for Older People

The UK’s ageing population 9.1 The UK faces a significant challenge as people live longer. ‘Living Well At Home - 2011’ (All Party Parliamentary Group on Housing and Care For Older People) identified that the older population will grow from 10.1m to 16.7m by 2036 for the over 65s, and from 1.3m to 3.3m by 2033 for the over 85s. Already over half of NHS spending is on people over 65. Wycombe District and Older People

9.2 Wycombe District’s older people’s population is shown in Figure 24. In this, it can be seen that Wycombe District has a lower population of older people relative to the South East and England. Further, population projections show increasing populations of older people in all cohorts from age 60 upwards with a significant increase in the 60-64 cohort for the period 2001-2011. There is therefore a need to consider the requirements of older people in terms of future housing requirements.

9.3 National Health and Adult Social Care reform is underpinned by a principle of sustaining people at home for as long as possible, thereby avoiding expensive hospital and care home services. However, there remains a need for specialist housing as the population ages.

9.4 The local strategic issues relating to Older People are contained in: » Buckinghamshire Health and Well Being Strategy 2013-16 » Housing Strategy 2009-14 » Joint Strategic Needs Assessment 2010

National Planning Policy Framework 2012

9.5 The National Planning and Policy Framework Paragraph 159 says ‘the Local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area’ and that this need for ‘all types of housing’ should include ‘Older People’.

9.6 In addition, the Framework contains a useful definition of older people in its glossary: ‘People over retirement age, including the active, newly-retired through to the very frail elderly, whose housing needs can encompass accessible, adaptable general needs housing for those looking to downsize from family housing and the full range of retirement and specialised housing for those with support or care needs’.

9.7 In addition, in ‘Laying the Foundations – A Housing Strategy for England’ (HM Government 2011), local authorities are encouraged to make provision for a wide range of housing types across all tenures, including accessible and adaptable general needs retirement housing, and specialised housing options including sheltered and Extra Care Housing

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9.8 The advantages of providing specialist housing provision for older people have been highlighted often, usually in terms of: » Financial benefits of specialist accommodation for other services: for example, Research into the financial benefits of the Supporting People programme, 2009; Capgemini for CLG (2009) showed that £258.7 million spent on housing-related support in sheltered housing for older people produced £1.1 billion of benefits, including savings in social care and health. » Specialist accommodation releasing general housing: for example, HAPPI2 (Housing our Ageing Population; Plan for Implementation – 2012) identified how developing more retirement housing could reduce under-occupancy and make more family homes available for younger people.

9.9 In relatively affluent areas, developers report considerable interest in the specialist older people’s market and investment funds for these are available. Schemes with a full range of provision from private sale through to hospice units are likely to be more viable in the current market.

9.10 There is some Government funding to support schemes via the Care and Support Specialised Housing Fund (see below).

Connecting Health and Social Care with Housing and Planning

9.11 Both Health and Adult Social Care are currently undergoing significant reform. The Health & Social Care Act 2012 initiated Health reforms which went live from April 2013 with the establishment of Adult Health and Well Being Boards and Clinical Commissioning Groups. A draft Care and Support Bill 2012 is currently before Parliament.

9.12 Buckinghamshire County Council’s Adult & Family Wellbeing team is currently reviewing its approach towards Older People’s future specialist housing requirements and is in the process of producing a Market Position Statement for Older People.

9.13 Essentially, Buckinghamshire wish to see an increased utilisation of supported living at home and extra care provision as alternative choice to long term institutional care. Its current Extra Care strategy, in particular, is seeking further future provision of these types of scheme.

9.14 Presently, there is a provision of 3,101 specialist accommodation for Older People in Buckinghamshire. These range between Nursing, Care and Extra Care schemes, as well as specialist Dementia schemes.

9.15 The County Council forecast a significant increase in over 85s requiring care & support services. Future County Council demand projections for Residential, Nursing & Extra Care suggest an additional 840 places by 2033 to be purchased by the County, with a further demand expected from self funders (c.1200), making a total of over 2,000 places required by 2033.

9.16 Planning applications currently in the pipeline across Buckinghamshire for Residential & Nursing developments potentially provide an additional 600 nursing/ residential care beds over the next 2 – 5 years. However, Extra Care developments have not grown as anticipated and is an area of significant interest for the future.

9.17 The Extra Care Strategy for Buckinghamshire identified a need for approximately 560 additional extra care units to be available by 2026. There have been some developments since this target was established but current provision (excluding the Denham Garden Village development, as this is not accessible to Buckinghamshire residents) is at a level of around 140 units.

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9.18 There are further developments in the pipeline of potentially 300 new build provisions. However there is no certainty that these will all occur.

9.19 Housing and Planning Strategy will need to respond to these reforms by forging closer relationships with Adult & Family Wellbeing colleagues. In particular, there is a need to connect health and social care strategies with housing and planning regarding new specialist accommodation, as there may be new opportunities to bid for funding.

Example: New funding opportunities following Health and Adult Social Care Reform Care and Support Specialised Housing Fund: £160m of NHS funding for specialised housing to run for 5 years from 2013/14. Programme managed by the HCA (Bidding closed in January 2013).

9.20 The SHMA should also link with the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) and Health and Well-being Strategy (HWBS) to ensure the requirements for new housing, and support needs to Older People in existing stock, are met.

Modelling Older People’s Housing Requirements 9.21 For Wycombe, a key policy issue is how the current projected Older People population growth translates into a requirement for new provision of specialist accommodation.

9.22 Many models have been produced to calculate specialist housing requirements based on population increase and these continue to mature. They tend to use a people to property ratio based on forecast population and are often in a ‘toolkit’ form to aid local authorities in planning for housing their ageing population. They also highlight the benefits of specialist housing and encourage planners to join up housing, planning and social care policies.

9.23 Two key examples are: » More Choice, Greater Voice (CLG, Housing LIN, Care Services Improvement Partnership - 2008) » Housing in later life: planning ahead for specialist housing for older people (National Housing Federation, McCarthy and Stone, Housing LIN, Contact Consulting and Tetlow King Planning; 2012)

9.24 The challenge of calculating specialist housing requirements can be seen by the variation in population to accommodation ratios in different models over time:

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Figure 98: Benchmark Figures for Specialist Accommodation

Section A Strategic Housing for ‘More Choice, Greater Voice’ Older People Resource Pack 2008 (Housing LIN, ADASS, IPC) 2012

Places per 1,000 Demand per 1,000 Tenure split Tenure split people aged 75+ people aged 75+ 30 sale Extra care 25 - 45 15 rent 50 rent Supported housing 125 - - 75 sale

Sheltered ‘plus’ or 10 sale 20 - 20 ‘Enhanced’ Sheltered 10 rent Dementia 10 - 6 - LSE - - 120 -

Modelling Future Requirements 9.25 The specialist housing requirements for Wycombe have been modelled using the Housing LIN 2012 ratios. These were developed in 2012 by a partnership which included Suffolk and Essex County Councils, Elderly Accommodation Council (EAC), and the Housing Learning and Information Network (Housing LIN). It is a secondary data based model which uses data from various sources including EAC, POPPI and Census.

9.26 Modelled requirements are a key output from applying the Housing LIN ratios to the forecast future population.

9.27 However, a key task is how the future population is modelled. The Housing LIN approach takes population forecasts and applies certain factors and assumptions about how any gross population projections may be constrained by various factors: » Older people who may wish to downsize to smaller accommodation. » Life expectancy of older people. » The need for alternative accommodation such as registered Care or Nursing Homes.

9.28 There are other factors which Housing LIN does not incorporate but which can also have an impact on modelling assumptions. These should be noted when considering the outputs from using the Housing LIN model: » Drivers of the growth in older population: the increase in the projected population of older people is often driven by health and environmental factors (e.g. better diet, improvements in medicine, smoking cessation etc) to extend life expectancy. Therefore, the relative health of older people in 2001 or 2011 is unlikely to be representative of people of the same age by 2031. » Impact of ‘at home’ adult care and support services in reducing the requirement for specialist accommodation: the move to support people in their own homes for as long as possible may reduce the need for specialist accommodation over time. » Propensity of older people to move into specialist accommodation: older people with a physical dependency may need to move, or express a desire to move, to specialist accommodation, but many will actually refuse to do so when opportunities are presented to them

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» Population forecasts may overstate the number requiring specialist accommodation as many households will contain more than one older person: effectively, the population numbers will be higher than household numbers » Only rented and owner occupation tenures are considered in the Housing LIN model, not intermediate tenures. » Non-aspirational moves, which occur when people have to move (e.g. in a ‘crisis’ situation), are not included.

9.29 Nevertheless, the Housing LIN Model ratios offer a useful starting point to begin the modelling of housing requirements for older people.

9.30 ORS has undertaken a study for the Retirement Housing Group (Modelling the Housing Requirements for Older People; 2010) which considered specialist requirements using the ‘More Choice, Greater Voice’ ratios as a starting point, but then applying a more detailed demographic modelling which incorporated further issues such as those outlined above. The study concluded that many requirements for extra care and residential care are likely to be overstated if wider factors are not built into modelling assumptions.

Older People’s Population Forecast 9.31 Population projections show that the older people’s population in the Wycombe District area is likely to increase between 2011 and 2031. In particular, the number of people aged 75 years and above is expected to grow considerably. Figure 65 shows the forecast Older People aged 75+ population for Wycombe.

Figure 99: Older people aged 75+ Population Growth Projections 2011-2031 (Source: ONS 2010 Sub-National Population Projections)

ORS Mid Trend Migration population Forecast

2010-based Subnational Population Projections 30,000

28,000

26,000

24,000 Population 22,000

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

9.32 The impact of the growth in the population aged 75+ can be seen in Figure 66 below. Wycombe’s 75+ population is forecast to increase by 68.1% by 2031.

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Figure 100: Older People aged 75+ Population Growth Projections to 2031

Wycombe (2031) 12,700 2010 population 7.4% 21,400 Projected Population 11.1% 8,700 Net change 3.7% % growth in population 68.1% % growth in percentage of population 50.8%

9.33 Based on the growth in population aged 75+ identified across the population projection scenarios, Figure 67 identifies the potential gross requirement of specialist housing implied by the ratios set out in the Older People Resource Pack 2012, together with the average 5 year growth (to set this in the context of potential schemes rather than units). As can be seen, there is a significant gross need for Extra Care and LSE schemes.

Figure 101: Implications of Older People Resource Pack Ratios based on Population Projection Scenarios (Note: figures may not sum due to rounding)

Enhanced Area Extra care Dementia LSE All Types Sheltered GROSS REQUIREMENT Wycombe (2031) 1,100 500 100 2,900 4,700 5 Year Requirement Wycombe (2031) 180 80 20 480 760

9.34 However, Figure 101 sets out Gross requirements and these are subject to consideration of existing supply and the various risk issues regarding demand set out earlier in this section.

9.35 Buckinghamshire County Council have produced modelled outputs regarding future specialist provision which takes into account various factors including current supply, demand and other market features.

9.36 This suggests that Wycombe District has a current deficit of c.200 specialist units over what is currently required. Wycombe’s position is different to the rest of the County; Buckinghamshire have identified a current oversupply in provision of between 200-250 units for other authorities areas in the county

9.37 Looking forward, Buckinghamshire have projected a requirement for an additional 2000 units of specialist older persons accommodation by 2035. This equates to c.100 to be delivered each year in with a mix of c.50% Nursing Care & 50% Residential/Extra Care. Overall, this indicates that Wycombe may need to contribute more towards the 2035 requirement than neighbouring authorities in order to meet their historic ‘deficit’.

9.38 A further issue identified by Buckinghamshire concerns scheme viability. By and large, older peoples extra care & residential/nursing schemes appear to be viable without too much support from county/districts. In effect, the models of provision appear to be viable and don't necessarily need land or capital subsidy. This is an evolving situation that needs careful monitoring as there is need to maintain a balance between “affordable” Nursing, Residential & Extra Care Schemes and those specifically targeting the self-funder

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market. If insufficient supply emerges the development of “affordable” provision may require district, health and county intervention and support.

Planning Policy and Older People 9.39 ‘Housing in later life: planning ahead for specialist housing for older people’ (2012) contains detailed advice in Chapter 6 regarding ‘tools to help officers plan for this form of housing in their local policies and strategies’ and headlines are given below: » Incorporate specialist housing for older people into local plans – Planners: Seek to include policies that encourage the delivery of specialist housing for older people where the need is identified, in their local plans. – Adult social care officers: Look to work with officers compiling local plans to join up thinking about remodelling existing specialist housing for older people across local and neighbourhood plans. » Local strategies for older people – Planners: Engage with providers and older people at an early stage to produce Supplementary Planning Documents that reflects the needs illustrated in the local authority’s housing and accommodation strategy for older people. » Connect health and social care strategies with housing and planning – Help to ensure that the JSNA and the Health and Well-being Boards link with the objectives of planning and housing. – Seek cross-departmental agreement and support between housing, health and planning on procurement, asset management and any land disposals to meet the strategic needs of the local authority.

Example policy wording for Local Plans

9.40 ‘Housing in later life: planning ahead for specialist housing for older people’ (2012) also contains a suggested Policy wording for Local Plans:

Excerpt Chapter 6: Housing in Later Life ‘No one planning approach will be appropriate for all areas, but the following provides an example policy wording that could be included in a local plan where a need for specialist housing has been identified: “The Council will encourage the provision of specialist housing for older people across all tenures in sustainable locations. “The Council aims to ensure that older people are able to secure and sustain their independence in a home appropriate to their circumstances and to actively encourage developers to build new homes to the ‘Lifetime Homes’ standard so that they can be readily adapted to meet the needs of those with disabilities and the elderly as well as assisting independent living at home. “The Council will, through the identification of sites, allowing for windfall developments, and/or granting of planning consents in sustainable locations, provide for the development of retirement accommodation, residential care homes, close care, Extra Care and assisted care housing

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Disabled People

9.41 This section considers potential future housing demand from disabled people. This is a challenge to establish as limited data is available, and projections should be treated as indicative. To consider the scale of disability in Wycombe District, Disability Living Allowance Higher Mobility Allowance has been used as a basis to model future demand.

9.42 Disability Living Allowance (DLA) is awarded to people under 65 years old who incur extra costs due to disability. Once awarded, DLA continues without an age limit, as long as applicants satisfy either the care or the mobility conditions. DLA Higher Mobility Component (HMC) is awarded when applicants have ‘other, more severe, walking difficulty’ above the Lower Mobility Component (which is for supervision outdoors). By considering Higher Mobility Component we can see a profile of disability across Wycombe District. NOTE: DLA was replaced by Personal Independence Payments (PIP) from April 2013.

9.43 Figure 102 below shows the age profile for DLA HMC awards in Wycombe District. Wycombe District has a lower level of claimants at all ages compared with both the South East and England. Although disability levels are relatively lower, Wycombe District still has levels of disability which may require a strategic housing response.

Figure 102: Higher mobility allowance by age as (%) of age group (Source: DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS)

Wycombe South East England

14%

12%

10%

0% Under 16 16-24 25-49 50-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

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Figure 103: Higher mobility allowance by age as (%) of population (Source: DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS)

Wycombe South East England

2.0%

1.8%

1.5%

1.3%

1.0%

0.8%

0.5%

0.3%

0.0% Under 16 16-24 25-49 50-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

9.44 To derive indicative projections, we have used modelled DLA HMC data against the population projection scenarios for Wycombe District. Figure 96, below, projects the current disabled population forward using historic trends, to 2031. This should be treated with caution; DLA/PIP are paid to those aged under 65, so individuals who become disabled after the age of 65 will not be included. However, they give an indication of the overall trend.

Figure 104: Higher mobility allowance by number 2011-2031 (Source: DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS)

2011 2031 Change

High-trend 4,900 5,600 +700 Mid-trend 4,900 5,500 +600 Low-trend 4,900 5,400 +500 Nil Migration 4,900 5,400 +500

9.45 Overall, the projection to 2031 shows that, against population scenarios, the numbers of disabled people aged under 65 are likely to increase.

9.46 Buckinghamshire County Council have considered future demand and modelled a future housing requirement for various Working Age groups with specialist needs. The modelling of such housing requirements is complex and the numbers of people involved relatively low. The needs below are for the County to 2035; however, the County Council have indicated a proposed delivery level of one third of this capacity in coming years.

9.47 The County have also identified issues regarding new build viability issues; economies of scale are not strong (schemes tend to be bespoke or involve low volumes) and competition for land (especially in desirable areas) lives drives up values and costs. Further, the role of housing benefit in viability becomes more pronounced and the impact of Benefit reform needs to be taken into account. Consequently, some form of subsidy will be required either from planning gain, land subsidy of capital contribution.

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Figure 105: Projected specialist housing requirements working age people to 2010-35 (Source: Buckinghamshire County Council) Total All Bucks per annum Wycombe Note Learning disability 200-235 8-12 2-4 16-24 for Years 1-5 5-8 BCC looking for accelerated provision in years 1-5 Mental Health 25-30 8 Years 1-2 2-3 8 per 5/6 years 2-3 Every 5-6 years

Physical Disability 20-25 6-10 Years 1-3 2-3 6-10 per 5/6 years 2-3 Every 5-6 years

9.48 In terms of adaptations to existing homes, the Council Housing Strategy 2009-14 sets out an aim to adapt 60 homes per annum (for a budget of £800,000). Given the trend in disabled population increase identified here, this provision should continue and be subject to regular review.

Service Families

9.49 The 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (2010) introduced reductions in the number of service personnel, with further reductions announced in 2012: » Army: Personnel to be reduced by 7,000 to 95,500 by 2015 (now 82,000 by 2015 following further Defence statement 2012) » Air Force: Personnel to be reduced by 5,000 to 33,000 » Navy: Personnel to be reduced by 5,000 to 30,000

9.50 Such a reduction could translate into increased demand for housing in local markets. However, the relatively low proportion of Service households in the overall Wycombe District population (c.0.5% of population), indicates the numbers involved are not significant.

9.51 The 2011 Census shows that there are 158 Armed Forces personnel living in communal establishments or barracks and 793 personnel in households within Wycombe District. RAF High Wycombe provides accommodation for service families on three sites, two of which are in Wycombe District. It is possible, therefore, that service personnel reductions may contribute to increased local demand for housing in Wycombe District.

Figure 106: Armed Forces living in Wycombe District (Source: Census 2011)

Residence Type Wycombe

Lives in a household 793

Lives in a communal establishment 158

Housing Members of the Armed Forces

9.52 The Government made a commitment towards housing members of the armed forces in the Armed Forces Covenant (2011) and ‘Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England 2011’ (HM Government). Subsequently, in June 2012, the Government revised Guidance regarding priority for access to social housing for former members of the armed forces above that offered to other people in housing need. In addition, following consultation, the Government brought into force The Allocation of Housing (Qualification Criteria for Armed Forces Personnel) (England) Regulations 2012 and the Housing Act 1996

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(Additional Preference for Former Armed Forces Personnel) (England) Regulations 2012 which have strengthened the position of some armed forces personnel in seeking to access social housing (the regulations are considered further below).

9.53 Further, whereas Local authorities have been expected to give seriously injured service personnel “additional preference” (higher priority) for the allocation of social housing since 2009, this ‘additional preference’ should now be given to applications from certain serving and ex-members of the armed forces who come within the reasonable preference categories defined in sub-section 166A (3) of the 1996 Housing Act and who have urgent housing needs.

Adapted social housing for Injured Service Personnel

9.54 Mandatory disabled facilities grants (DFGs) are available from local authorities, subject to a means test, for essential adaptations to give disabled people better mobility at home and access to essential facilities. The Nation’s Commitment: Cross Government Support to our Armed Forces, their Families and Veterans (July 2008) made it clear that injured service personnel who bought a home through what was then the Key Worker Living Scheme, might be eligible for a DFG to carry out necessary adaptation work.

Affordable housing schemes for Services Personnel

9.55 There are a number of housing schemes that are available to the Service and Ex-Service community under the HomeBuy umbrella.

9.56 In addition, the MOD Referral Scheme with Housing Associations in c.180 locations aims to provide low- cost, rented accommodation for people coming out of the Services.

Overall

9.57 There may be increased demand for housing in Wycombe District as a result of overall service personnel reductions. There may also be an increase in obligation towards housing armed forces personnel as a result of the changes to allocation of affordable and social housing which may necessitate a response that includes maximising options under Allocations Policies as well as HomeBuy options.

Requirements for Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople

9.58 The Wycombe District SHMA draws on the Gypsy, Traveller and Travelling Showpeople Accommodation Assessment (GTAA) commissioned by Buckinghamshire District authorities and completed in August 2013, the results of which are set in this section.

9.59 The main objective of the Assessment is to provide the Council with robust, defensible and up-to-date evidence about the accommodation needs of Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople in Wycombe District in the 19 year period until 2031. Further, it provides an evidence base to enable the authority to comply with wider requirements under the Housing Act 2004, the National Planning Policy Framework 2012 and Planning Policy for Traveller Sites 2012.

9.60 Key outcomes and outputs from the Assessment are included in the SHMA here. For more detailed information, please see the full report.

9.61 Note: the Assessment covered the needs of Gypsies, Irish Travellers, New Travellers and Travelling Showpeople, but for ease of reference we have referred to the study as a Gypsy and Traveller and Travelling Showpeople Accommodation Assessment.

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Definitions

9.62 For the purposes of the planning system, Gypsies and Travellers means: Persons of nomadic habit of life whatever their race or origin, including such persons who on grounds only of their own or their family’s or dependants’ educational or health needs or old age have ceased to travel temporarily or permanently, but excluding members of an organised group of Travelling Showpeople or circus people travelling together as such. (Planning Policy for Traveller Sites, DCLG, March 2012)

9.63 Within the main definition of Gypsies and Travellers, there are a number of main cultural groups which include: » Romany Gypsies; » Irish Travellers; and » New Travellers.

9.64 Romany Gypsies and Irish Travellers are recognised in law as distinct ethnic groups and are legally protected from discrimination under the Equalities Act 2010.

9.65 Alongside Gypsies and Travellers, a further group to be considered are Travelling Showpeople. They are defined as:

Members of a group organised for the purposes of holding fairs, circuses or shows (whether or not travelling together as such). This includes such persons who on the grounds of their family’s or dependants’ more localised pattern of trading, educational or health needs or old age have ceased to travel temporarily or permanently, but excludes Gypsies and Travellers as defined above. (Planning Policy for Traveller Sites, DCLG, March 2012).

Planning Policy for Traveller Sites

9.66 The document ‘Planning Policy for Traveller Sites’ sets out the direction of government policy. Among other objectives the new policies aims in respect of Traveller sites are (Planning Policy for Traveller Sites Page 1- 2): » that local planning authorities should make their own assessment of need for the purposes of planning; » to ensure that local planning authorities, working collaboratively, develop fair and effective strategies to meet need through the identification of land for sites; » to encourage local planning authorities to plan for sites over a reasonable timescale;

9.67 The guidance includes a number of limited requirements for local authorities.: » Pay particular attention to early and effective community engagement with both settled and traveller communities (including discussing travellers’ accommodation needs with travellers themselves, their representative bodies and local support groups); » Co-operate with travellers, their representative bodies and local support groups, other local authorities and relevant interest groups to prepare and maintain an up-to-date understanding of accommodation needs;

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Existing Sites in Wycombe District 9.68 At the time of writing, there are 46 pitches on Gypsy and Traveller sites with permanent permission, and 3 pitches on two sites with temporary permission, all are private sites. There are 10 plots for Travelling Showpeople on two sites in Wycombe District.

Unauthorised Developments and Concealed Households

9.69 There are currently six pitches on unauthorised developments in Wycombe District. There are no known concealed households.

Bricks and Mortar

9.70 Identifying households in bricks and mortar has been frequently highlighted as an issue with Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessments. The 2011 UK Census of Population identified a population of 614 Gypsy and Traveller persons in the whole of Buckinghamshire. This is likely to be an under-estimate of the total population due to some Gypsies and Travellers not declaring their ethnic status or completing the Census at all. However, given the size of the on-site population, it does indicate that there is a small population in bricks and mortar. Identifying these households is problematic, partly because of households not declaring their ethnicity and partly because the datasets used by landlords for recording the information do not allow the information to be extracted and reported.

Additional Site Provision: Future Need 9.71 The next stage of the process is to assess how many households are likely to be seeking pitches in the area in the future.

Temporary Planning Permissions

9.72 Wycombe District currently has three pitches with temporary planning permissions, producing a projected need arising from the expiry of permissions.

New Household Formation

9.73 It is recognised that an important group for future pitch provision will be older children who form their own households. Many studies of Gypsy and Traveller populations assume a net growth in the population of around 3% per annum, and this figure was used in the South East of England Regional plan.

9.74 Long-term trends indicate that the number of Gypsy and Traveller caravans on site has grown by 134% nationally in the past 34 years, which equates to a net growth of around 2.5% per annum and it is this figure we have used in this study. When including the impact of compound growth, a 2.5% growth per annum provides for 28% growth over 10 years.

9.75 On the basis that there are 49 households on site, a growth rate of 28% would see an additional 14 households in the area by 2023.

In-migration from Other Sources

9.76 The most complicated area for a survey such as this is to estimate how many households will require accommodation from outside the area. Potentially Gypsies and Travellers could move to Wycombe District from anywhere in the country. The number of households seeking to move to Wycombe District is likely to be heavily dependent upon pitch provision elsewhere. It has been noted that a weakness of many Gypsy

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and Traveller Accommodation Assessments conducted across the country has been that they either allowed for out-migration without in-migration which led to under-counting of need, or they over-counted need by assuming every household visiting the area required a pitch.

9.77 Overall the level of in-migration to Wycombe District is a very difficult issue to predict. We have allowed for a balanced level of migration to existing sites. The advantage of allowing for net migration to sum to zero is that it avoids the problems seen with other Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessments where the modelling of migration clearly identified too low or high a level of total pitch provision. An assumption of net nil migration implies that the net pitch requirement is driven by locally identifiable need.

9.78 Beyond this number, rather than assess in-migrant households seeking to develop new sites in the area, we would propose that each case is assessed as a desire to live in the area and that site criteria rules are followed for each new site. It is important for WDC to have clear criteria-based planning policies in place for any new potential sites which do arise.

Overall Needs for Wycombe District 9.79 The estimated extra site provision that is required until 2023 is 21 pitches. This includes 6 households currently occupying unauthorised sites and 3 pitches with temporary permissions due to expire.

Figure 107: Extra Pitches which are required in Wycombe District from 2013-2023

Gross Net Reason for Requirement/Vacancy Supply Requirement Requirement Supply of Pitches Additional supply from empty pitches - 0 Additional supply new sites - 1 Movement to bricks and mortar - 1 Total Supply - 2 Current Need Current unauthorised developments or encampments and seeking to stay in the 6 - area Concealed households 0 - Movement from bricks and mortar 0 -

Waiting list for public sites 0 -

Total Current Need 6

Future Needs Currently on sites with temporary planning permission 3 -

Net migration 0 - Net new household formation 14 - Total Future Needs 17 - Total 23 2 21

Travelling Showpersons 9.80 There are currently two Travelling Showperson’s yards in Wycombe District, with 10 plots in total. There is no evidence of additional demand for plots apart from that arising from natural growth. The typical growth rate for the Travelling Showpeople population is typically lower than for Gypsies and Travellers with estimates normally being from 1%-1.5%. The GTAA on-site survey showed no evidence of overcrowding, so it is reasonable to use the lower of these figures to allow for future household growth. A growth rate of 1% provides for total net growth of 10% over 10 years which suggests a need for one additional plot by 2023.

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Chapter 9 Summary Modelling Future Housing Requirements for Older People The modelled Gross specialist housing requirements for older People indicate significant future demand from an ageing population. However, the Gross requirements should be treated with caution and the constraints regarding these should be noted. Further work to model the Net requirement will still need to be undertaken. Housing for Older People In taking forward the implications of the ageing population in Wycombe District, the Council should: » Work closely with colleagues in Health and Adult Social Care, and with the new Health and Well Being Board and Clinical Commissioning Group(s) locally regarding new specialised accommodation requirements for Older People » Consider the requirements for specialist housing requirements identified by Buckinghamshire County Council, for older people » Consider the Planning Policy recommendations from ‘Housing in later life: planning ahead for specialist housing for older people’ (2012) and incorporate, where appropriate, planning policies to support the specialist housing provision. Disabled People Overall, projections to 2031 shows that, against population scenarios, the numbers of disabled people aged under 65 are likely to increase. The Council should consider the specialist housing requirements identified by Buckinghamshire County Council for Working Age people with learning disability, mental health issues and physical disability. Service Families There may be increased demand for housing in as a result of overall service personnel reductions. There may also be an increase in obligation towards housing armed forces personnel as a result of the changes to allocation of affordable and social housing; this may necessitate a response that includes maximising options under Allocations Policies as well as HomeBuy options. Gypsies and Travellers There are currently 46 pitches on Gypsy and Traveller sites with permanent permission, all on private sites. There are 3 sites with temporary permissions due to expire. The estimated extra site provision that is required over the period to 2023 is 21 pitches. Travelling Showpeople There are two Travelling Showpeople yards in Wycombe District, comprising 10 plots. There is no evidence of any need for Travelling Showperson plots in Wycombe District apart from natural growth, which is estimated at one plot by 2023.

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10. Housing Delivery Recent Trends in New Housing

Housing Delivery Trends

10.1 Housing delivery has slowed across the UK since the market peaked in 2007/08. Various current forecasts regarding national recovery to 2008 levels vary from 3 years to 10.

10.2 However, recent reports of an improving UK economic position and reported activity in the housing market (with increases in first time buyer transactions and rises in home values) indicate that this position may be changing.

10.3 In Wycombe District, the impact of the market slowdown was less marked and delivery levels have been relatively consistent across the period 2006-2012, apart from a dip in 2009-10, even though significant changes have happened in the wider economy and the construction sector.

Figure 108: Housing Completions 2008-2-12 (Source AMR)

Dwellings completions Affordable dwelling completions

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600

206 500 222 291 224 126 400

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149 200 389 419 388 351 316 100 155

0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

10.4 Planning permissions are shown in the figure below. Large sites with full planning permissions have declined since 2009.

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Figure 109: Planning Permissions 2009-12 (Source: AMR)

2009 2010 2011 2012

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700

600

500

400

300

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100

0 Large site Small site Full Planning Permission Outline Planning Permission

Viability in Delivering New Housing 10.5 Even within relatively high value areas, such as Wycombe District, there can be viability issues. In practice, many local delivery targets for any one authority form part of the wider delivery target for a sub-region, and therefore more localised viability can affect the delivery for this wider area.

10.6 Delivery of lower numbers of dwellings in any area will marginally reduce the requirement for Affordable Rent/Social Rent and intermediate housing, but this is due to lower overall delivery. A lower level of delivery will not per se impact upon the requirements of those seeking affordable housing as these low income households do not typically have options to move elsewhere. However, higher levels of development go some way to mitigate this. Higher delivery would normally also incentivise migrants (who typically occupy market sector dwellings) to move to the area. Conversely, lower levels of development will provide disincentives to in-migrants.

Stakeholders

Developers and Private Landlords (and their agents) see the current market as good, properties sell well. Demand is driven by a perceived shortage of housing in the last 20-30 years while the population was increasing. More recently, demand and supply constraints appear to be driving prices up. Respondents felt that there is more money available in the current market than a couple of years ago in the downturn.

New Build

A consequence of the current new build market is that properties are only developed when a deposit is paid, so delivery is slow.

A key issue remains as land availability.

The turndown in the market for new build has meant construction costs have increased; builders do not hold stock and their margins go up.

Existing stock

Sales are very active, with a high number selling. Prices declined 2007-10, stabilised in 2011 and started to increase in 2012, across the board.

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Land supply

Developers identify that the topography of High Wycombe presents a challenge to land supply as High Wycombe is situated in a ‘bowl’ and the supply of suitable land is limited. The green belt also restricts growth, although it is an acknowledged feature which attracts residents to the area.

Supplementary Planning Document (SPD) and gardens

Stakeholders commented that the recent SPD in response to a surge in developments on large gardens now prevents the development of small sites in built up areas. A consequence is that the supply of small windfall sites has dried up, and has a further knock-on impact on smaller builders (who are also local employers).

One example cited is a local brickworks which is closing because they make specialist bricks used on these smaller sites. Larger builders use their own suppliers and subcontractors and often do not directly contribute to the local employment market or economy.

Help to Buy 10.7 There are a variety of home ownership support schemes (under the Help to Buy banner) to enable social tenants, Ministry of Defence Personnel and other first time buyers to buy a share of a home and get a first step on the housing ladder in England.

10.8 Help to Buy: introduced in the 2013 Budget and running from 1 April 2013, the scheme offers a 20% equity loan towards the cost of a new home to buyers with a 5% deposit. From January 2014 a Mortgage Guarantee will be available for purchase of a new or existing home and the maximum value for which support is available rises to £600,000. The HBF reported that 4,000 buyers had come forward in the first two months of the scheme. Concerns have been expressed (for example by the IMF) that the scheme is contributing to a recent improvement in market values and sales transactions. » Help to Buy Equity Loan (previously FirstBuy): an equity loan product which helps buyers buy a new home with the help of an equity loan of up to 20% of the full purchase price; » Help to Buy (previously Shared Ownership): purchase of new homes available on a ‘part- buy/part-rent’ basis (also known as NewBuild HomeBuy). The buyer can buy shares of 25% to 75% of the purchase price;

10.9 Social HomeBuy: a scheme to let social housing tenants to buy their current home at a discount either outright or on a part-buy/part-rent basis, the minimum initial share being 25%;

10.10 Mortgage Rescue scheme: for vulnerable home-owners at risk of repossession, to remain in their homes; » Armed Forces Home Ownership Scheme: available to those with 4-6 years service, this scheme provides equity loans of 15-50% of the market value of the home;

Help to Buy: Registered Providers note considerable demand for shared ownership properties, mainly from local people but also from some in-migrants.

However, they also highlight how some existing Shared owners are under pressure and struggling to meet costs of both rent and mortgage.

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Delivery of Affordable Housing 10.11 Whilst historic delivery trends indicate that affordable housing delivery was maintained up to 2011/12 in a relatively difficult delivery environment, there has been less activity since then – with considerably fewer annual completions.

Figure 110: Affordable Housing Delivery 2006-2012 (Source: Local Authority Records)

300 270

250 218 210 200

148 150 128 106 100

0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

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Figure 111: Affordable Housing Delivery as a Proportion of all Housing Delivery 2006-2012 (Source: Local Authority Records)

60%

49% 50% 48%

39% 40% 36% 33%

30% 25%

20%

10%

0% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Registered Providers

10.12 The main delivery agents for new affordable homes are Registered Providers. Most Registered Providers report that the current market and changes within how the Affordable Housing Programme works have affected their appetite for new schemes. A combination of recent capital grant changes and revenue risks (from Welfare Benefit reform) have combined to make RPs more cautious. Viability pressures also make providers pessimistic.

10.13 Registered Providers say that any new Social Rent schemes are very unlikely to proceed and, for many providers, are now unviable. Affordable Rent schemes will still come forward, albeit in heightened awareness of the risks schemes carry.

Affordable housing: Registered Provider stakeholders would welcome more local authority contributions towards affordable housing in order to support new supply. This could be in the form of financial contributions or land and sites.

Affordable Rents 10.14 The Government’s policy on the conversion of existing social homes, and the letting of new homes, to Affordable Rents could bring benefits for future Affordable Housing delivery: » landlords’ Social Rent/Affordable Rent housing revenues increase » more funds are thus released for RP development even at lower grant levels » additional affordable homes are delivered to increase supply » the increased supply can house those in need who currently live in the Private Rented Sector » there is a reduced reliance by affordable home providers on capital grant

10.15 However, there may be unforeseen consequences, principally that the Housing Benefit bill will also rise as the new/existing Affordable homes are let to households in need who require Housing benefit support at

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the higher Affordable Rent. Stakeholder RPs are currently cautious about the change to Affordable Rent and wider benefit changes; any increased revenue may not, therefore, improve delivery of new Affordable homes.

Affordable rents

Registered Providers see affordable rent properties as current and future difficulty, both in terms of affordability for tenants now and longer term. 80% of market rent is also sometimes higher than the LHA so at least one Provider has had to reduce rents.

With the recent spending review and housing settlement for affordable housing 2015-18, most Registered Providers are reviewing their options and variables in development assumptions. Further HCA funding seems likely at lower grant rates, with implications for supportive borrowing. Providers have some concerns at the risk to their revenue from Benefit Reform. Some Providers are examining options for stock rationalisation to release trapped equity.

Help to Buy options remain successful.

Most Registered Providers note how they are often dependent on developers coming forward with s106 opportunities, but the recent fall in values in the lower part of the market has meant many schemes are unviable from the lead developer perspective.

Self Builders

10.16 In 2010, only one in 10 new homes in Britain was self-built (although this proportion varies as volume and speculative build rates vary). Plots are difficult to find, and finance and mortgage products restricted, while regulations and planning permissions are challenging. Self-build is more popular in Belgium and the Netherlands where, for example, the figure is three in 10.

10.17 In Laying the Foundations – a Housing Strategy for England (2011) , the Government announced up to £30m of funding available via the Customer Build programme (administered by the HCA) to provide short- term project finance to help unlock group custom build or self-build schemes. The fund can be used to cover eligible costs such as land acquisition, site preparation, infrastructure, S106 planning obligations etc.

10.18 However, the first loan under the Custom Build programme was only made in February 2013.

10.19 Research into the self-build market is limited, however, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report ‘The current state of the self-build housing market (2001)’ showed how the sector had changed in recent years, principally, the shift from self-build by those who cannot afford mainstream housing/ineligible for social housing to those who want an individual property or a particular location.

10.20 Home Builders Federation (2010) said "everyone likes the idea of self-build but it probably won't make a big contribution to supply in the next few years”.

10.21 The attractiveness of self-build is the reduced costs; the average self-build house in the UK costs c.60% of its final value, as self-builders cut out the certain developer costs, principally labour.

10.22 Given the historic low supply of self-build homes, the challenges in bringing schemes forward and the slow take up of the Custom Build Fund, it seems unlikely that self-build will make a significant contribution to housing supply in Wycombe District.

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Future Housing Delivery

10.23 The WDC Core Strategy 2008-2026 indicates a substantial requirement for new housing to be delivered. New housing delivery would help meet both housing requirements and the needs of local people, as well as providing a significant contribution to the local economy. However, new supply is constrained in the current market and the construction sector has been in downturn since 2007. Housing delivery is therefore, a challenge for Wycombe and this chapter considers what might be done to stimulate supply.

10.24 Recently, the housing market is reported as becoming more active with a rise in values and increased first time buyer activity (Source: various reports – Halifax, RICS, LSL/Rightmove). While the sales market, in the short term, may be improving, the Bank of England has said that it will intervene to intervene to prevent a ‘bubble’ (Source: Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, interview with the Daily Mail, August 2013).

10.25 Housing delivery is important for two key reasons: » New housing helps meet housing requirements and needs locally: the SHMA shows a significant housing requirement for Wycombe. » Housing delivery provides a direct boost to local economies: House building and construction make a positive contribution to both national and local economies.

10.26 The Montague Report (Review of the barriers to institutional investment in private rented homes 2012) showed house building nationally having a direct impact on economic output (on average 3% of GDP over the last 10 years). It supports more jobs than investment in many other sectors of the economy: every £1m spent on house building supports 12 new jobs and for every £1 invested in construction, £2.60 is generated elsewhere in the supply chain.

10.27 One key strategic issue, therefore, is how housing supply can be delivered given current constraints in the market, to both boost delivery and support the local economy.

New Market Housing in the UK

10.28 Housing delivery in the UK has been at relatively low levels since 2008. Various forecasts have been made trying to predict when the construction sector will recover to pre-2008 levels.

10.29 The most recent HBF Pipeline Report (Dec 2012) showed 33,881 approvals in England during Q3 of 2012, an increase of 36% on the previous quarter, and 17% on the same period last year. However, the number is ‘still well short of the 60,000 per quarter needed to meet demand, or the 64,500 that were being granted on average during 2006/07’.

10.30 A Construction Skills Network report (Dec 2012) predicts that it will be 2022 before 2007 delivery levels are restored. The sector lost a further 60,000 jobs in 2012, while output fell 9%, in large part because of public spending cuts. Construction employment is expected to continue to fall every year until 2016.

Current Housing Market

Locally, the current market is generally positive. There is stakeholder recognition that the local area has seen a shortage of housing for the past 20 to 30 years, even while the population has been increasing. However, stakeholders report that the current market is good: properties sell well and sales are very active. House prices declined between 2007-10, but have begun to improve again since 2012. New development is

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happening although delivery is seen as slow by developers as they wait until a deposit is paid before completing homes.

Attempts to stimulate delivery of market housing 10.31 There have been several Government initiatives to stimulate the delivery of new homes.

10.32 In September 2012, the Government launched a housing and planning stimulus package that aims to deliver up to 70,000 new homes (including affordable housing and first-time buyers) by relaxing planning requirements, a 140,000 jobs boost to the construction sector and a £40 billion guarantee scheme for major infrastructure projects (including £10 billion for new homes).

10.33 In the Autumn Statement 2012, the government committed a further £225 million to support the development of 50,000 homes on top of the stimulus package. The initiatives from the stimulus package and from other initiatives included: » Relaxation of planning rules: initially, a relaxation of planning rules (e.g. for home and business extensions) from January 2013 and a further relaxation that will make it easier to turn empty offices into homes (following a proposal in the 2011 Budget). » Relaxing requirements for affordable housing on s106 sites: the Government has suggested councils could help deliver more homes by being willing to negotiate the affordable homes requirement on those s106 schemes which have become unviable due to the economic climate. This could deliver the 75,000 stalled homes identified in the stimulus package.

10.34 LGA research (November 2012) suggested c.80% of local authorities may now negotiate affordable house building in a bid to kick start stalled sites, with 41% already having done so. However, there are concerns that such flexibility may reduce affordable housing delivery. » Using the New Homes Bonus to support housing delivery: since April 2011, under the New Homes Bonus the Government has matched the council tax on any new properties for their first six years, thereby providing an incentive for communities to support development by providing or improving local facilities. As at December 2012, Councils had received £1.3 billion through the scheme (Source: CLG). However, a survey by Inside Housing in January 2012 showed that more than 70% of councils in England have used the bonus to support their General Fund. » Using the LEP single funding pot for housing: The Autumn Statement 2012 increased the proportion of spending awarded through the single funding pot to LEPs from April 2015. The pot can be used for housing although has to compete with other strategic proposals (including funding for local transport, schemes to get people back into work, skills and any additional local growth funding, as well as housing). There are questions, therefore, regarding whether the pot will include any ring-fencing for housing and whether there will be flexibility to move funds to areas of housing need. NB In response to the Heseltine Review (2013), LEPs are also currently developing strategic economic plans to access various Growth Deal funding streams and this includes consideration of housing as a support to the local economy.

10.35 Although the stimulus package is significant, the National Housing Federation commented ‘It is at a much smaller scale than we expected’, and timescales for delivery of the targets are not known.

10.36 In addition the Government has attempted to support those seeking to buy a home in three ways:

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» Help to Buy offers a 20% loan, interest free for five years, provided the buyer can afford a 5% deposit and secure a mortgage for 75% of the purchase price » NewBuy offers government security to encourage lenders to offer 95% loan to value mortgages and will run for 3 years from 2014 (up to £130bn of mortgages). » Help to Buy scheme announced on 23 July 2013, to be launched in January 2014, will guarantee mortgages for those able to afford a 5% deposit on a home valued up to £600,000

Affordable Housing

10.37 Delivery of affordable housing is also an important source of new UK housing supply and a key means to meet new and existing housing need.

10.38 The ‘model’ for affordable housing delivery since the 1988 Housing Act was to shift to lower capital subsidy (via lower grants rates) and move to higher revenue subsidy (via Housing Benefit). RPs have historically filled any viability ‘gap’ this model creates by cross subsidising from other forms of tenure (e.g. sales) and private finance. This model is becoming less viable given the current Benefit reform programme, grant changes and the appetite of RPs for risk. Overall, many RPs forecast new affordable housing supply to be limited as a result.

10.39 CLG figures show how the number of affordable homes provided in England fell by 4% in 2011: » 57,950 new affordable homes were built in 2011/12 – compared to 60,430 in 2010/11. » 930 of the new homes were as part of Year 1 of the £1.8 billion affordable homes programme. » 19,490 homes were provided as intermediate housing schemes (including shared ownership and shared equity) - down by 10% on 2010/11.

Government Funding of Affordable Housing 10.40 There are several Government funding streams delivered via the HCA, the key ones being: » Affordable Housing Programme 2011-15: the flagship HCA £4.5bn programme for affordable homes. The AHP programme is changing: it was opened to non-registered RP providers for the first time in 2011. In addition, there has been considerable debate within the RP sector, and many historic providers have scaled back their programmes to mitigate perceived risks. The future of the AHP post 2015 is currently unknown although the Government has indicated (January 2013) that they are keen to clarify post 2015 plans speedily. » Get Britain Building package: a £570m programme launched as part of the Government’s Housing Strategy for England (November 2011), aiming to unlock locally-backed stalled sites holding planning permission and deliver up to 16,000 new homes. Based on recoverable funding in a shared risk approach, Expressions of Interest for the current round closed in February 2103. » Care and Support Specialised Housing Fund: £160m NHS funding to be used to accelerate the development of the specialised housing market which will run for 5 years from 2013/14. Bidding closed in January 2013.

10.41 It seems likely that further initiatives could be launched during the life of this Parliament and WDC may wish to monitor these for opportunities to bring forward new affordable homes.

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10.42 The Spending Review (June 2013) committed a further £3.1bn to the Affordable Housing Programme 2015- 18 to deliver 165,000 new affordable homes. However, the grant rate per affordable home will reduce from an average £22,000 a home to around £18,000 a home. Given the risks stakeholder Registered Providers have identified in the current AHP, the further reduction in grant levels may mean delivery of the new homes may pose a challenge.

Other Issues Affecting Delivery of New Affordable Homes 10.43 Registered Providers: many RPs have become more risk averse in their approach to developing new homes in the new AHP era. The move to Affordable Rent as opposed to Social Rent housing and the resultant reduction in grant rates has made delivery and viability issues more pronounced. Further grant reductions planned for the AHP 2015-18 may increase risk perceptions further.

10.44 Benefit Reform: Most stakeholders (including private landlords, house builders, local authorities and RPs) are concerned at the impact of benefit reform. » RPs highlight how the introduction of Universal Credit poses a risk to their revenue. Credit rating agency Moody’s, which rates 26 UK RPs, have highlighted the risks posed by Benefit Reform to RP revenues, and especially to those RPs which have exposure to variable rate debt. » RPs and PRS landlords identify Housing Benefit reform as a risk in terms of housing suitability and availability to lower income households. PRS landlords are reported as already ending tenancies for Housing Benefit households. » Further, new caps on non-housing benefits which will be applied by 30 September 2013 and direct payment of benefit to claimants could lead to higher arrears and bad debts.

10.45 Affordable Housing Programme Delivery: The AHP 2011-15 has been slow in delivery in its initial phases, arguably as a result of RP caution over the delivery model and programme management arrangements (e.g. new AHP contracts). Throughout 2012/13, some concerns have been expressed that the full HCA AHP may not deliver its target by 2015. However, an alternative view is that, historically, the HCA has delivered its programme even in the recent challenging years 2010/11 and 2011/12.

10.46 Councils building more new homes: there has been extensive lobbying of Government to lift the cap on local authority borrowing both for Autumn Statement 2012 and the Budget 2013. Considerable latent potential for increased supply to deliver a further 60,000 homes over 5 years was identified (‘Let’s get building’; National Federation of ALMOs - 2012). So far, the cap has not been relaxed although the proposal seems likely to continue to be promoted.

10.47 Social Housing Real Estate Investment Trust (SREITs): although the Government initially (December 2012) ruled out social housing REITs as a means to deliver more affordable homes, it is now reconsidering the issue and has announced a consultation on whether REITs can be included within the definition of ‘institutional investors’.

10.48 Sale and Leaseback: an initiative whereby investors buy a PRS portfolio and then lease it to RPs who then collect rent and manage the properties on a leaseback arrangement. One of the first was recently announced by Genesis for 401 homes in a 35 year deal. However, almost immediately, the HCA expressed concerns on the risk of sale and leaseback (especially on the Index-linked loans used to set them up).

10.49 New ‘for profit’ providers: 18 ‘for profit’ providers to deliver AHP homes have so far registered with the HCA in order to deliver non-grant affordable housing. At this stage, only shared ownership or intermediate homes delivered have been delivered, until concerns about affordable homes for rent are resolved (the

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main concern is around ‘asset stripping’ where ‘for profit’ providers might sell affordable homes on). However, arguably, there is potential for increased supply of affordable homes for rent by ‘for profit’ providers.

10.50 Stock rationalisation by RPs: the new regulatory framework for RPs places an emphasis on economic regulation. This could, potentially, reduce current supply of affordable housing. Already, sector trends indicate many associations are identifying under-performing stock with a view to rationalisation. Two examples have occurred in the South West (Western Challenge to Sovereign, Knightstone to Spectrum). Most activity relates only to deals between RPs but there is the potential for different approaches. In some housing markets, this may have longer term implications on affordable housing supply.

10.51 Co-operative Housing: Given current delivery constraints, co-operative housing has been identified as a further alternative supply for households unable to access ownership or affordable housing. The Confederation of Co-operative Housing, working in partnership with RPs, is currently trying to bring schemes forward. The HCA has held back funding for Co-operative Housing in the current AHP.

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Chapter 10 Summary Housing Delivery Trends Housing supply has remained relatively buoyant since 2006, despite the impact of the national market slowdown. Affordable Housing Delivery Trends Affordable housing delivery has been maintained in relatively difficult delivery environment. Self Build Given the historic low supply of self-build homes, the challenges in bringing schemes forward and the slow take up of the Custom Build Fund, it seems unlikely that self-build will make a significant contribution to housing supply in Wycombe District. Future Housing Delivery Delivery of new housing in the current market is challenging and tends to reward the proactive. Wycombe District, therefore, may wish to review its approach to future delivery in all tenures. This could include enhanced joint working with key delivery agents (especially developers and registered providers. Seek new funding from new programmes » Work with LEPs regarding possible housing funding » Work closely with NHS and the Adult & Family Wellbeing Team at Social Services regarding specialist provision for older people and bids for new funding programmes » Work with affordable housing providers regarding potential bids for schemes under post 2015 Affordable Housing Programme arrangements Develop relationships with new affordable housing providers » Develop relationships towards ‘with profit’ providers » Support development of new housing co-operatives Seek to improve scheme viability » Review flexibility towards affordable housing requirements on s106 sites » Consider approach to use of any New Homes Bonus » Consider use of land holdings to improve viability

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11. Key Findings and Conclusions Future policy implications for the authorities to consider

Introduction

11.1 This chapter considers the main policy issues that have arisen from the SHMA Update and their implications. The SHMA report has been published at a time of uncertainty: » The impact of the current economic climate is noted in several places in the report. These implications are brought together here as an added dimension to identified policy issues; » The housing market is at a low point in its cycle and the rate of recovery remains uncertain; » Modelled future housing requirements, especially intermediate affordable housing products, are sensitive to market dynamics (e.g. house price change), and this is acknowledged » Ongoing emerging data from the 2011 census continues to provide new information which can impact on a range of things including demographic projections

National Economy 11.2 Inevitably, the performance of the national economy is the key to recovery for the UK housing market and a more benign housing delivery environment. Currently, national economic performance is weak, although improving, and recovery and growth are the subject of considerable debate. The Government strategy to reduce the national deficit is, arguably, under pressure; for example, the Institute for Fiscal Studies ‘Green Budget’ (February 2013) suggests that Government spending will continue to rise, even after the 2015 Election, mainly as a result of social security spending pressures. Whether Government responds via further reductions in public spending or increased taxes or a slower rate of deficit reduction is, as yet, unknown.

11.3 Financial markets are still recovering from 2007, and the availability of finance for housing related activity is severely constrained. Ironically, housing delivery is still seen as a key mechanism to stimulate economic growth. Mortgage and development finance is still much reduced from peak market levels in 2007. However, the Bank of England quarterly lender survey (Q4 2012), said that the availability of credit to households ‘increased significantly’ in the three months to mid-December 2012, with ‘a further significant increase’ expected in the coming quarter. Further, recent reports of an improving UK economic position and reported activity in the housing market (with increases in first time buyer transactions and rises in home values) indicate that this position may be changing.

11.4 Demand and the aspiration to home ownership are still strong. ‘Housing as a catalyst for sustainable economic growth’ (CIH South East 2012) highlighted how individuals still see ownership as a popular leveraged investment capable of long term return. Further, long term house price trends, over the last century, bear this out; prices still remain on an upward trajectory despite the recession and market downturns post 2007. Demand is, however, constrained by other factors such as mortgage availability and the majority current Loan to Value requirements.

11.5 At the same time, the national economic position has seen a fall in housing supply with significant capacity being removed from the construction sector.

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11.6 Affordable housing has recently received its settlement for 2015-18 in the Spending Review (2013), although this indicates reduced grant levels, which, combined with Benefit Reform, makes registered providers more risk averse in their approach to new delivery.

11.7 More recently, commentators have suggested that the housing market is beginning to recover. The sales market is reported as becoming more active with a rise in values and increased first time buyer activity (Source: various reports – Halifax, RICS, LSL/Rightmove). While the sales market, in the short term, may be improving, the Bank of England has said that it will intervene to prevent any ‘bubble’ (Source: Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, interview with the Daily Mail, August 2013). Mortgage lending remains still significantly below that of the peak market in 2008.

Figure 112: Recent trends in mortgage lending (£million)

Source: Regulated Mortgage Survey

11.8 Overall, this backdrop suggests that the Housing market will continue to be relatively changeable in the short term. The delivery of new homes will likely receive relatively limited further Government support from investment programmes either in housing or related sectors, such as infrastructure. Affordable housing delivery is also the subject of considerable debate and delivery post 2015 is unclear.

Housing and the SHMA 11.9 England has an identified shortage of housing and delivery of supply has been a key policy aspiration of successive governments. Various initiatives and programmes to encourage housing delivery via key supply side agencies (land owners, developers, investors, Registered Providers and Local Authorities) have been put in place. However, the current economic downturn has had a significant impact on delivery. This presents a considerable challenge in achieving delivery of new homes.

11.10 First time buyers are a key driver of market activity. The House Builders Federation (Broken Ladder report; 2013) says the number of first-time buyers has fallen sharply in recent years, from an average of 543,000 in the five years to 2002 to an average of 197,000 in the five years to 2012. The HBF estimates that first-time buyers need to save for 10 years (London 24 years) before they can get on the housing ladder. A potential first-time buyer in England would on average need to set aside half their net income after council tax, rent, energy and water bills for a decade to get together the deposit needed to buy a home.

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11.11 However, as a counterpoint to this, the recent housing market is reported as becoming more active with a rise in values and increased first time buyer activity (Source: various reports – Halifax, RICS, LSL/Rightmove). While the sales market, in the short term, may be improving, the Bank of England has said that it will intervene to prevent a ‘bubble’ (Source: Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, August 2013).

11.12 Local Authorities have a major role in enabling the delivery of additional housing. A key output of the SHMA is to provide the evidence base to support Local Planning’s affordable housing policies. The SHMA evidence can inform the size, type and tenure mix of what should be built to meet the housing requirements of future generations.

11.13 The SHMA, however, goes further. It also considers the needs of vulnerable groups, those who have fewer options in the housing market and are often heavily dependent on affordable housing and local support services, particularly Older People.

11.14 The SHMA Update, therefore, arrives at important conclusions about the size and nature of the future housing requirement, set within a deeper understanding of the local housing market and positioning this within the wider policy and economic landscape current in 2013.

11.15 The SHMA is also cognisant of the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework 2012 and draft National Planning Practice Guidance.

Overview

11.16 The SHMA has considered various factors regarding the housing market in Wycombe District. It is intended to update the current evidence base and inform housing and planning policies for the District area.

11.17 In terms of the drivers to the housing market, these can be split between those factors driving the current housing market and longer terms strategic issues where a co-ordinated response is required.

Market Drivers » Household and population growth » Housing need » Local Economy » Benefit reform and households in housing need

Strategic Issues » Older People » Private rent sector growth » Housing delivery constraints

Housing Market Areas 11.18 Historic Housing Market Area analysis for Wycombe, undertaken in previous SHMA studies, is opaque with different conclusions being drawn. This is, arguably, unsurprising; HMA areas are difficult to define and, given Wycombe’s complex spatial relationships, understandable.

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11.19 This analysis of the Housing Market Areas has revisited historic data and considered the degree of connectivity and self-containment of housing markets surrounding Wycombe. Further, it has considered more recent demographic data and considered this in the light of the relationships between the local authorities within the HMA area.

11.20 From this it can be seen that the functional HMA is not the same as the Wycombe District local authority but is a slightly larger area. The functional HMA that the SHMA identifies reflects the ‘linkages between places where people live and work’ and is a ‘geographical area in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live and work and where those moving house without changing employment choose to stay’. Therefore, the functional HMA identified satisfies the required definitions.

11.21 However, the vast majority of the population is within the Wycombe District area itself. Consequently, this SHMA focuses upon the area formed by the administrative area served by Wycombe District Council. It should be noted that no new data to undertake HMA analysis has been published since the 2001 Census at the required granularity. New Census data, which could inform a revised view, is not anticipated until 2014. Therefore, Wycombe District should consider updating the HMA analysis when new data is available.

Figure 113: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading)

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Socio Economic Factors 11.22 The SHMA has identified key features regarding the local population and the local economy.

Population

11.23 The Wycombe District population has increased by 9,538 or 5.9% between 2001-2011, increasing at a slower rate than that for the South East region (+7.9%). There has been a 6.9% increase in the number of households in that period (compared to 8.2% for the South East).

Age

11.24 Wycombe District has higher percentages of children relative to South East and England in all age cohorts below 14 years.

11.25 Wycombe District has significantly lower relative numbers of older people compared to South East and England in every cohort. However, the local population of older people has relatively increased in the period 2001-2011 in all cohorts.

Black and Minority Ethnic Groups

11.26 The population of people from a minority ethnic group has increased by 7.7% since 2001, a higher increase than in the South East and England. There are significant changes within certain minority groups; the Asian population has increased from 7.8% to 12%, while the Black group has increased from 2.4% to 3.5%. Only the White Other group has increased at a slower rate than in the South East and England, from 4.2% to 5.3%.

11.27 Wycombe District has also seen a growth in the number of migrants since 2004 when EU migration rules were relaxed. The subsequent impact of two recessions has not acted to depress international migration.

11.28 The lifting of migration restrictions for EU citizens of Romania and Bulgaria from 2014 may see an increase in migration from these countries. Overall, continued international migration to Wycombe District seems likely.

11.29 New migrants often enter the UK housing market in the least desirable housing, frequently in disadvantaged areas or where demand for housing is lowest. Most also live in the private rented sector, including Houses in Multiple Occupation, and these are often poorer quality properties.

11.30 Wycombe District should continue to keep under review the migration patterns locally. Further, it may wish to monitor the quality and accessibility of housing and housing related services for households across all ethnic groups, and ensure that housing strategies seek to tackle any inequalities identified.

Local Economy

11.31 Wycombe District’s economically active population has increased overall (+6.492; +7.7%), although this has been driven by a relatively steep rise in part time and self-employed working and working students. There has been a decrease in the economically inactive population in Wycombe District (-168; -0.5%).

11.32 Long-term unemployment rates in Wycombe District are close to that for the South East, but they are significantly lower than for England. Since 2008 the number of Incapacity Benefit claimants has been falling at a rapid rate.

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11.33 Wycombe District’s occupation profile shows growth in Professional occupations (up 6.7%) since 2001 which marginally exceeds that for England and the South East.

11.34 Wycombe District residents earn higher incomes to those who only work in Wycombe District and live elsewhere. Wycombe District incomes (residents and employees) are higher for all employees than averages for the South East and England.

11.35 Students have a limited impact on Wycombe District’s housing market. There are no residential areas dominated by students: although the highest density in the centre of High Wycombe can show significant densities, this is lower than traditional University towns which can have up to 90%.

Welfare Reform

11.36 A key risk for the local housing market concerns Welfare reform and, in particular, how this might impact on the Private Rented Sector. The potential impact of Benefit Reform on the Private Rented Sector is currently unknown.

11.37 Potentially, there could be reduced household formation rates which may reduce the number of households seeking affordable housing. However, some changes in the LHA could see formation rates rise.

11.38 The supply of private rented dwellings may change significantly, especially for households on lower incomes.

11.39 The conversion rate of housing stock to HMOs increased between 2001 and 2011 and this trend may change as a result of reform.

11.40 The total number of housing benefit claimants in the private rented sector is likely to continue to rise, and their locations may change to lower priced areas.

11.41 Alternatively, where landlords do not accept the lower rents, more properties may return to ‘pure’ market housing and be out of reach to households on Housing Benefit.

11.42 Local authorities may be pressed to find housing solutions for increasing demand from households who cannot resolve their own needs - homelessness presentations and overcrowding may also rise further.

Housing Stock 11.43 In terms of the local housing stock, certain key features have been identified:

Dwelling type

11.44 Wycombe District has a similar dwelling type profile to the South East region and England, albeit with more detached and semi-detached houses and fewer terraced and flats.

Dwelling characteristics » Wycombe District properties have a spread of bedroom numbers but 3 bedrooms predominate. 98.2% of homes have a garage or private driveway, with only 1.8% reliant on on-street parking. » Just under half of Wycombe District stock was built after 1965. However, c.8% is pre 20th century and 20% of homes have been developed since 1993.

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Tenure

11.45 The dominant form of housing tenure continues to be owner occupation, although the sector has declined 4.8% since 2001. In the same period, the private rented sector has grown significantly to 16.6%, at a similar rate to both the South East and England.

11.46 House prices have almost doubled since 2001, and the market, despite a decline in values in 2007-09, has seen an upward trend since 2009.

11.47 The number of properties below £150,000 has declined considerably since 2001. First time buyers have fewer potential purchases as a result. Wycombe District is relatively less affordable than the South East.

11.48 Wycombe District has lower relative proportions of Communal housing (such as Nursing or Care homes) than the South East or England.

The Private Rented Sector

11.49 The PRS sector in Wycombe District has changed significantly in the past decade and can be expected to grow further. In responding to the challenge this change is making, WDC has various options to consider by way of response: » Existing provision – Monitor the impact of Benefit reform – Consider the role of RPs in developing the PRS locally – Consider the overall approach to licensing or self-regulation schemes for Landlords – Maximise opportunities to improve property condition via the Green Deal and ECO schemes » New provision: Take a view whether to actively engage in seeking new PRS supply and, if so, the most effective routes to do so, especially as this may aid labour mobility in support of the local economy

Local Housing Market 11.50 The local housing market has experienced considerable change regarding its operation in recent years:

Affordability

11.51 Affordability has worsened in the last decade despite some improvement 2008-09.

Volume of Sales

11.52 The level of sales transactions in Wycombe District beyond 2008/09 has been lower than in previous years.

Right to Buy

11.53 The Right to Buy re-launch (2012) has had an impact across the country and may increase sales further. This could impact on the overall net supply of affordable housing for rent in Wycombe District, if RTB sales exceed new affordable housing delivery.

Housing need

11.54 Overall, current trends indicate increased pressure on affordable and private rented housing from households in need seeking to resolve their housing requirements.

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Private Rented Sector and Housing Benefit

11.55 The take up of housing Benefit in the Wycombe District Private Rented Sector has increased recently. This could reflect the lack of capacity in social housing stock available to house Housing Benefit claimants or the change in the way the Council can discharge its duty to homeless applicants.

Homelessness

11.56 Although the long term trend in homelessness is downwards, recently the number of homeless claims and acceptances has levelled off. However, there has been a recent increase in the use of temporary accommodation (20012-13).

Migration

11.57 Wycombe District has seen a decreasing net migration loss in every year from 2006 to 2009, with a gain in 2010. The pattern from 2006-2010 is relatively consistent with net loss turning to net gain. Most UK migrants who come to the area do so from West London, Wycombe District has a net gain of 2,000 over 2005-2010 from Hillingdon and Ealing. Most of those leaving the area go to Aylesbury Vale, 1,430 over 2005-2010.

11.58 WDC should continue to keep migration under regular review, to monitor to quality and accessibility of housing and housing related services for households across all ethnic groups, and ensure that housing strategies seek to tackle any inequalities identified.

Housing and the Local Economy

11.59 In Wycombe District, the combined effects of key drivers within the local housing market (affordability, earnings, house prices and migration), indicate a relatively young in-migrant population (25-44), plus average house price of £334,225 and median earnings of £32,001, creating affordability issues.

11.60 In responding to the drivers in the local housing market and to meet the aim of supporting the local economy, WDC might consider its approach to the Private Rented Sector, both in terms of the quality of existing stock and the delivery of new high quality supply.

Future housing requirements

11.61 National Planning Practice Guidance published in draft in August 2013 places emphasis on the role of CLG Household Projections as the appropriate starting point in determining objectively assessed need. The projections for Wycombe district have identified an increase in households ranging from 380 up to 520 additional households each year. However, the Census showed a much larger population in 2011 than had previously been estimated; and migration rates were much higher than expected over the period 2001-11.

11.62 The SHMA established three migration-led scenarios (together with a zero migration scenario) in order to derive population and household projections for the period to 2031 for Wycombe District. The analysis identified that the population was likely to increase from 172,000 people in 2011 to between 185,500 and 195,500 people in 2031, an overall increase of 13,600-23,600 people. Based on trends in economic activity rates, it is likely that the labour force would increase between 8,300 and 15,500 workers.

11.63 The number of additional households depends on both the projected number of people (given the different scenarios previously outlined) and the “headship rate, used to identify “household representatives” or “heads of household”. The number of additional dwellings implied by the household projection scenarios

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ranges from 9,600 dwellings up to 14,300 dwellings over the 20-year period to 2031, equivalent to a rate of between 480 and 720 dwellings per year.

11.64 In determining the objectively assessed need for additional housing, the SHMA suggests that the mid-trend migration scenario provides the most appropriate basis. However, given the higher than expected migration levels over the last 10 years, there is an argument that the housing number should perhaps be lower than this scenario would suggest; or at least that this scenario should perhaps be considered as an upper end to an appropriate range. In relation to headship rates, the SHMA concludes that there may be argument to plan for a housing number that is marginally higher than suggested by the 2011 rates, but lower than suggested by the 2008-based data.

11.65 The SHMA has considered the range of housing market signals identified by the draft National Planning Practice Guidance, and the evidence identifies that many aspects the housing market changed significantly following the credit crunch and subsequent recession. However it must be recognised that there is no single formula that can be used to consolidate the implications of this information; and furthermore the housing market signals will also have been influenced by the pressures introduced by increased international migration following A10 accession.

11.66 Given this context, the SHMA has concluded that the objectively assessed need for housing in Wycombe is likely to be around 11,000 to 12,000 dwellings over the next 20 years. This is equivalent to around 550- 600 dwellings annually, notably higher than previous household projections from CLG.

The affordable housing target

11.67 The SHMA has identified a significant need for affordable housing, including many households able to afford more than social rent but unable to afford market prices, based on spending 25% of their income on housing costs (or borrow up to 3.5x their income for a mortgage). On this basis, between two-thirds and three-quarters of all additional housing would need to be provided as affordable housing.

11.68 This highlights the significant need for additional housing in Wycombe District and also the significant need for additional affordable housing. The consequence of this is likely to be sustained pressure on the private rented sector, with many existing dwellings currently occupied by a single households gradually becoming HMOs or being converted to smaller dwellings. Furthermore, without sufficient affordable housing, there will be continued pressure on the need for housing benefit support for households otherwise unable to afford local housing costs.

11.69 As outlined earlier in this report, the housing benefit supported private rented sector plays a key role in meeting housing need in the area. The modelling analysis assumes that the number of claimants already receiving housing benefit support to live in the private rented sector remains constant. Any attempt to reduce the number of housing benefit claimants in the private rented sector would require a significant increase in affordable housing, above the proportions outlined above.

11.70 However, the above results are also based on the relationship between house prices and incomes remaining constant. If house prices were to fall relative to incomes, there would be notable reduction in the need for affordable housing, but an increase in relative prices would increase affordable housing requirements, increasing the need for intermediate affordable housing in particular. Furthermore, when we consider the model outputs based on increased affordability assumptions with households assumed to spend up to 30% of their income on housing (or borrow up to 4.0x their income for a mortgage), the

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demand for market housing is significantly higher, accounting for up to three quarters of all additional housing.

11.71 In practice, of course, it is likely that many households are currently spending more than 25% of their income on housing costs and many of those able to buy are often borrowing more than 3.5x their income (especially for those that have lower loan to value ratios) – so it is arguable that this analysis is a more accurate reflection of current housing demand. Nevertheless, just because many households have to spend high proportions of their incomes on housing does not mean that future housing needs should be measured on this basis – there are many households in Wycombe that are in housing need and can only access market housing by allocating large proportions of their income to housing, which may not be sustainable longer-term.

11.72 When considering the appropriate housing mix, the SHMA has concluded » Market housing: around two-fifths 1 or 2 bedroom dwellings, a further two-fifths 3 bedroom homes and the remaining fifth being dwellings with 4 or more bedrooms; » Intermediate affordable housing: around a quarter 1 bedroom dwellings, a half with 2 bedrooms, a quarter being three bedroom homes and only a small requirement for intermediate affordable housing with 4 or more bedrooms; and » Social rent/affordable rent housing: around two-fifths being 1 bedroom, a quarter with 2 bedrooms, a further quarter with 3 bedrooms and a small proportion with 4 or more bedrooms.

11.73 Nevertheless, in determining the most appropriate mix of social rent/affordable rent housing, the Council will need to balance the requirements identified by the model for the 20-year period alongside the more immediate needs of those households currently in priority need.

Specialist Housing Needs 11.74 Chapter 9 considers the current position regarding the specialist housing requirements of various groups.

Older People

11.75 WDC faces a significant future challenge from its ageing population. PPF Paragraph 159 says ‘the Local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area’ and that this need for ‘all types of housing’ should include older people.

11.76 Reforms in Health and Adult Social Care offer both risk and opportunity for Housing and Planning to work collaboratively to develop their understanding of the future housing requirements of older people.

11.77 Chapter 9 sets out the estimated Gross requirement for specialist housing for older people (including both market and affordable options) – this represents a potentially significant proportion of the total housing requirement.

11.78 In taking forward the implications of the ageing population, Wycombe District may wish to: » Work closely with colleagues in Health and Adult Social Care, and with the new Health and Well Being Board and Clinical Commissioning Group(s) locally regarding new specialised accommodation requirements for Older People » Consider the Consider the requirements for specialist housing requirements identified by Buckinghamshire County Council, for both older people and people of working age

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» Consider the Planning Policy recommendations from ‘Housing in later life: planning ahead for specialist housing for older people’ (2012) and incorporate, where appropriate, planning policies to support the specialist housing provision.

Disabled People

11.79 Overall, projections to 2031 shows that, against population scenarios, the numbers of disabled people aged under 65 are likely to increase. The Council should, therefore, consider the specialist housing requirements identified by Buckinghamshire County Council for Working Age people with learning disability, mental health issues and physical disability.

Service families

11.80 There may be increased demand for housing in Wycombe District as a result of overall service personnel reductions. There may also be an increase in obligation towards housing armed forces personnel as a result of the changes to allocation of affordable and social housing.

Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople

11.81 The estimated extra site provision for Gypsies and Travellers required until 2023 is 21 pitches. There is a need for one additional Travelling Showperson plot in Wycombe District to allow for natural growth.

Housing Delivery

11.82 NPPF Paragraph 14 says ‘local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area’;

Housing Delivery Trends

11.83 Housing supply in Wycombe District has been relatively consistent across the period 2006-2012, apart from a dip in 2009-10, even though significant changes have happened in the wider economy and the construction sector.

Affordable Housing Delivery Trends

11.84 Affordable housing delivery has been maintained in relatively difficult delivery environment although, more recently, delivery has declined.

Self Build

11.85 Given the historic low supply of self-build homes, the challenges in bringing schemes forward and the slow take up of the Custom Build Fund, it seems unlikely that self-build will make a significant contribution to housing supply in Wycombe District.

Future Housing Delivery

11.86 Dwelling delivery targets are challenging given the issues relating to the current economic climate. These seem likely to reduce dwelling delivery in the short to medium term, with implications for the scale of delivery in the long term: » Lower supply of dwellings in any area will marginally reduce the requirement for social and intermediate housing, but will mainly impact on the market housing requirement.

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» A lower level of completions will not significantly impact upon the requirements of those seeking affordable housing.

11.87 Chapter 10 considers the delivery issues for new homes (both market and affordable) and the tools available to increase supply. Given the state of the market, it should be noted that achieving delivery tends to reward the proactive. Wycombe District may, therefore, wish to enhance its current approach and possible initiatives might include: » Enhance joint working with partners and stakeholders – More effective delivery management, especially on the Affordable Housing and related programmes – Regular reviews of viability drivers such as land values and build costs – Enhance lobbying for changes that might improve delivery  Seek new funding from new programmes  Work with LEPs regarding possible housing funding  Work closely with NHS and Social Services regarding specialist provision for older people and bids for new funding programmes  Work with affordable housing providers regarding potential bids for schemes under post 2015 Affordable Housing Programme arrangements » Develop relationships with new affordable housing providers – Develop relationships with ‘with profit’ providers – Support development of new housing co-operatives » Seek to improve scheme viability – Review flexibility on affordable housing requirements on s106 sites – Consider approach to use of any New Homes Bonus – Consider use of land holdings to improve viability

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Appendix A Planning Policy

Excerpts from the National Planning Policy Framework

Paragraph 159 on cross boundary working and the scale/mix of requirements:

Local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area. They should: • prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which: – meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change; – addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and – caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand;”

Paragraph 14 on needs:

“local planning authorities should positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area; Local Plans should meet objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change.”

Paragraph 47 regarding supply:

“identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer of 5% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to ensure choice and competition in the market for land. Where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing, local planning authorities should increase the buffer to 20% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to provide a realistic prospect of achieving the planned supply and to ensure choice and competition in the market for land;”

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Paragraph 178-181 regarding co-operation:

Planning strategically across local boundaries 178. Public bodies have a duty to co-operate on planning issues that cross administrative boundaries, particularly those which relate to the strategic priorities set out in paragraph 156. The Government expects joint working on areas of common interest to be diligently undertaken for the mutual benefit of neighbouring authorities. 179. Local planning authorities should work collaboratively with other bodies to ensure that strategic priorities across local boundaries are properly coordinated and clearly reflected in individual Local Plans.36 Joint working should enable local planning authorities to work together to meet development requirements which cannot wholly be met within their own areas – for instance, because of a lack of physical capacity or because to do so would cause significant harm to the principles and policies of this Framework. As part of this process, they should consider producing joint planning policies on strategic matters and informal strategies such as joint infrastructure and investment plans. 180. Local planning authorities should take account of different geographic areas, including travel- to-work areas. In two tier areas, county and district authorities should co-operate with each other on relevant issues. Local planning authorities should work collaboratively on strategic planning priorities to enable delivery of sustainable development in consultation with Local Enterprise Partnerships and Local Nature Partnerships. Local planning authorities should also work collaboratively with private sector bodies, utility and infrastructure providers. 181. Local planning authorities will be expected to demonstrate evidence of having effectively co- operated to plan for issues with cross-boundary impacts when their Local Plans are submitted for examination. This could be by way of plans or policies prepared as part of a joint committee, a memorandum of understanding or a jointly prepared strategy which is presented as evidence of an agreed position. Co-operation should be a continuous process of engagement from initial thinking through to implementation, resulting in a final position where plans are in place to provide the land and infrastructure necessary to support current and projected future levels of development.

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National Planning Policy Framework 2012 Annex 2

Affordable housing: Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers (as defined in section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency. Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable). Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing. Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning purposes.

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Appendix B Glossary of Terms

Definitions

Affordability is a measure of whether housing may be afforded by certain groups of households. Affordable housing includes social rented and intermediate housing, provided to specified eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. For the purpose of this report we have used the definition in the National Planning Policy Framework 2012 Census Output Area is the smallest area for which UK Census of Population statistics are produced. Each Census Output Area had a population of around 250 people with around 100 dwellings at the time of the 2001 Census. ECO underpins the Green Deal and places obligations on energy companies to facilitate installation of energy efficiency measures in homes. ECO fits within the Green Deal framework where Green Deal finance alone is not enough. Equity is the difference between the selling price of a house and the value of the outstanding mortgage. Green Deal is a market led framework that will allow individuals and businesses to make energy efficiency improvements to their buildings at no upfront cost. Finance needed for the improvements is repaid, in instalments, attached to an electricity bill. A household is one person living alone, or two or more people living together at the same address who share at least one meal a day together or who share a living room. Household formation refers to the process whereby individuals in the population form separate households. ‘Gross’ or ‘new’ household formation refers to households that form over a period of time, conventionally one year. This is equal to the number of households existing at the end of the year that did not exist as separate households at the beginning of the year (not counting ‘successor’ households, when the former head of household dies or departs). ‘Net’ household formation is the net growth in households resulting from new households forming less the number of existing households dissolving (e.g. through death or joining up with other households). A Housing Association or Registered Provider is an independent not-for-profit body that primarily provides low-cost "social or affordable housing" for people in housing need. Housing demand is the quantity of housing that households are willing and able to buy or rent. Household income includes all salaries, benefits and pensions, before deductions such as tax and National Insurance. Housing market areas are geographical areas in which a substantial majority of the employed population both live and work and where those moving house without changing employment choose to stay. Housing need is the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance.

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Housing requirements encompasses both housing demand and housing need, and is therefore the quantity of housing necessary for all households to have access to suitable housing, irrespective of their ability to pay. Housing type refers to the type of dwelling, for example, flat, house, specialist accommodation. Intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents above those of social rent, but below market price or rents, and which meet the criteria for affordable housing set out above. These include shared equity products (e.g. HomeBuy), other low cost home ownership products and intermediate rent. Lending multiplier is the number of times a household’s gross annual income a mortgage lender will normally be willing to lend. The most common multipliers quoted are 3.5 times income for a one-income household and 2.9 times total income for dual income households. Low cost home ownership or Shared ownership is intermediate affordable housing designed to help people who wish to buy their own home, but cannot afford to buy outright (with a mortgage). Through this type of scheme you buy a share in the property with a Housing Association or other organisation. Lower quartile means the value below which one quarter of the cases falls. In relation to house prices, it means the price of the house that is one-quarter of the way up the ranking from the cheapest to the most expensive. Lower Super Output Area is a group of around 5-6 Census Output Areas and is the smallest geography for many Government statistics. Each Lower Super Output Area had a population of around 1,250 people with around 500 dwellings at the time of the 2001 Census. Market housing is private housing for rent or for sale, where the price is set in the open market. Migration is the movement of people between geographical areas. In this context it could be either local authority districts, or wider housing market areas. The rate of migration is usually measured as an annual number of individuals, living in the defined area at a point in time, who were not resident there one year earlier. Gross migration refers to the number of individuals moving into or out of the authority. Net migration is the difference between gross in-migration and gross out-migration. Overcrowding is defined by the number of people who stay in a room and the amount of space they have there (see Part X Housing Act 1985). A projection of housing needs or requirements is a calculation of numbers expected in some future year or years based on the extrapolation of existing conditions and assumptions. For example, household projections calculate the number and composition of households expected at some future date(s) given the projected number of residents, broken down by age, sex and marital status, and an extrapolation of recent trends in the propensity of different groups to form separate households. Registered Social Landlord/Registered Provider see Housing Association. Secondary data is existing information that someone else has collected. Data from administrative systems and some research projects are made available for others to summarise and analyse for their own purposes (e.g. Census, national surveys). Shared ownership see Low Cost Home Ownership. Social rented housing is provided by social landlords and rented for less than would be paid if renting privately.

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Specialised housing refers to specially designed housing (such as mobility or wheelchair accommodation, hostels or group homes) or housing specifically designated for particular groups (such as retirement housing).

Acronyms and Initials

ASHE Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings BME Black and Minority Ethnic CACI Private sector company providing modelled data CORE The Continuous Recording System (for Housing Association and Local Authority lettings) DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DWP Department of Work & Pensions GIS Geographical Information Systems HBF House Builders Federation HMO House in Multiple Occupation IMD Indices of Multiple Deprivation LA Local Authority LDF Local Development Framework LDP Local Development Plan LHA Local Housing Allowance NHSCR National Health Service Central Register NPPF National Planning Policy Framework ONS Office for National Statistics ORS Opinion Research Services POPPI Projecting Older Person Population Information REIT Real Estate Investment Trust RSL Registered Social Landlord SAR Shared Accommodation Rate SHMA Strategic Housing Market Assessment UDP Unitary Development Plan

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Appendix C Data Sources

A range of data sources were used in the preparation of the SHMA, and the various merits are highlighted below: Data source Advantage Disadvantage Statistical Reliability & Validity Reference

2011 UK Census of Population Most comprehensive data source for Lacking data on incomes and Up to date as of 2011, but will Population small areas affordability. Data on small area progressively lose accuracy Age migration and travel to work will not Migration be published until late 2013 Household Growth BME Service families Communal housing

ONS Mid Year Population Estimates Long-term trends for population by 2011 Census contradicted their Official ONS data Population age cohort. findings for many areas, but they have been subsequently revised

ONS Population projections Provide forecasts of population up Based on trend data, so if trends Official ONS data using up to date Population to 2035 change they become out of date evidence

CLG Household projections Currently provide forecasts for Based on trend data, so if trends Derived from ONS population Households household numbers by type up to change they become out of date. projections. New versions will need 2033 and will be updated in to take into account changing February 2013 headship rates and households sizes as found by the 2011 Census

ONS (NHS Customer Records) Shows migration with the UK from Not everyone registers with a GP Best known estimate for migration Migration GP records and not everyone moves their GP with the UK which are published when they move annually.

DWP New National Insurance Shows new workers from overseas Does not show dependants of Published quarterly and accurately Migration numbers to give an indication of the number workers or those who have left an reflects new workers Disabled of migrant workers area

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Data source Advantage Disadvantage Statistical Reliability & Validity Reference

CLG P1E Show priority need claimants Councils have become more Formally published quarterly, but Homelessness efficient at managing homelessness now annually. Reflect one so while the numbers have been component of housing need, but not falling, real housing need may have all housing need been rising.

Land Registry transactions A record of all properties sold with 7 Can be issues with discounted sales Published monthly and used for House prices digit postcodes with data back to such as First Buy official house price indices. 2000

Homes and Communities Agency Includes all Affordable housing Sometimes doesn’t match Local Published annually and is bespoke Affordable housing completions investment programmes Authority records

Labour Force Survey Largest regular social survey in the Runs on calendar quarters but data Official ONS data Employment/unemployment UK showing employment prior to 2006 runs on seasonal Economic activity/inactivity circumstances of the population quarters Occupation training Hours of work

Business Register and Employment Official source of employee and Official ONS data Employee and Survey employment estimates by detailed employment estimates by detailed geography and industry geography and industry split by full- time/part-time workers and public/private businesses

Annual Population Survey Combines data from the Labour Official ONS data Education Force Survey and national boosts Employment and provides data that can produce Health reliable estimates at local authority level. improves intercensal Ethnicity monitoring of key variables for a range of policy purposes

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Estimates of the level and Does not cover the self-employed Official ONS data – released annually Pay and hours of employees by distribution of earnings and paid nor does it cover employees not resident analysis (people resident of hours for employee jobs paid during the reference period. the area) and workplace analysis (people working in the area)

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Data source Advantage Disadvantage Statistical Reliability & Validity Reference

DWP Work and Pensions Links benefit and programme Claims are for households, not Published monthly and very up to Housing benefit Longitudinal Study (WPLS) information dwellings, so HMOs can be double date Jobseekers claimant count counted. held by DWP, with employment IB/SDA records HMRC and provides a quarterly snapshot of benefit claimants at particular points in time

Annual Monitoring Report Document submitted to Can sometimes have missing data Published annually by local Housing Land Supply Government by a local planning authorities Completions authority to assess the progress and Completions by tenure effectiveness of the Local Development Framework Housing trajectory

Data Spring Housing markets database with data Can sometimes have missing data Published at regular intervals by Affordable Housing programmes at district, regional and national Cambridge Centre for Housing level Studies

Valuation Office Agency (VOA) Mean, median, lower quartile, and Data has not been adjusted to Published quarterly Private sector rents for a number of upper quartile gross monthly rent produce statistics representative of bedroom categories paid for a number of bedroom/room the private rental property market categories) mix in England. Not drawn from a statistical sample and does not consist of tracked properties. This means that the statistics presented in this release should be considered as indicative only and do not represent accurate measures of the population.

Housing Strategy Statistical A return that provide evidence to Published annually Vacancy by tenure Appendix (HSSA) support the local authorities' housing strategies whether they own stock or not

Right to Buy Sales - Communities Official statistics on the number of Relates only to sales by local Published quarterly Right to Buy and Local Government (CLG) sales of dwellings under the Right to authorities under the Right to Buy Buy scheme scheme, excluding sales by registered providers under preserved Right to Buy

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Appendix D Table of figures

Figure 1: Proposed Sub-Regional Housing Markets with Shaded Overlaps (DTZ 2004; for the South East Regional Housing Board) ...... 9 Figure 2: Excerpt from: Proposed Sub-Regional Housing Markets with Shaded Overlaps (DTZ 2004) ...... 10 Figure 3: Extract from Buckinghamshire SHMA (2008) ...... 11 Figure 4: Excerpt from Geography of Housing Market Areas in England (NHPAU/CURDS; 2010) ...... 12 Figure 5: In-migration, Out-migration and Net Migration 2006-2010 to/from Wycombe District (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 14 Figure 6: Average Annual Net Migration within UK 2005-2010 by Age Group (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 14 Figure 7: Local Authorities with the Highest Net Migration to and from Wycombe District over the period 2005-2010 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit) ...... 15 Figure 8: Average Annual Net Migration within UK 2005-2010 by Region (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 16 Figure 9: Top 10 Local Authorities with the Highest Net Migration to and from Wycombe District over the period 2005-2010 (Source: ONS Migration Statistics Unit) ...... 16 Figure 10: Identifying the Links between Urban Centres in the Study Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 combined with DEFRA Classifications) ...... 17 Figure 11: Identifying the Links between Urban Centres in the Study Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 combined with DEFRA Classifications) ...... 18 Figure 12: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading) ...... 19 Figure 13: Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) by Area of Residence (Source: UK Census of Population 2001) ...... 20 Figure 14: Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) by Area of Residence (Source: 2001 Census of Population) ...... 20 Figure 15: Area of Residence by Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) (Source: UK Census of Population 2001) ...... 21 Figure 16: Area of Residence by Previous Area of Residence (12 months prior to Census) (Source: 2001 Census of Population) ...... 21 Figure 17: Workplace location for Wycombe HMA residents (Source: UK Census of Population 2001) ...... 21 Figure 18: Workplace location for Wycombe District residents 2010-11 (Source: Annual Population Survey 2010 and 2011) ...... 22 Figure 19: Residence location for Wycombe HMA workers (Source: UK Census of Population 2001) ...... 23 Figure 20: Residence location for Wycombe District workers 2010-11 (Source: Annual Population Survey 2010 and 2011) ...... 23 Figure 21: Resident Population in 2011 by Housing Market Area (as defined in the ORS SHMA) and Local Authority Area ...... 24 Figure 22: Distribution of Land by Housing Market Area (as defined in the ORS SHMA) and Local Authority Area ...... 24

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Figure 23: Comparison of CURDS and ORS HMA analysis ...... 25 Figure 24: Comparing HMA with BRMA...... 26 Figure 25: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading) ...... 27 Figure 26: Population in Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011. Notes: All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 30 Figure 27: Age Profiles for Wycombe District Compared with the South East and England (Source: UK Census of Population 2011) ...... 31 Figure 28: Ten Year Difference in Age Profiles for Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011) ...... 31 Figure 29: Limiting Long-term Illness Rates by Severity (Source: UK Census of Population 2011) ...... 32 Figure 30: Change of Population by Minority Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011) ...... 33 Figure 31: Proportion of Population by Minority Ethnic Group (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011) ...... 33 Figure 32: New National Insurance Registrations of Non UK Nationals in Wycombe District (Source: DWP. Notes: All figures rounded. Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 34 Figure 33: New National Insurance Registrations of Non-UK Nationals in Wycombe District2002-2011 by Country of Origin (Source: DWP) ...... 34 Figure 34: Economic Activity/Inactivity in Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011. Notes: All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 35 Figure 35: Unemployment Rate for Working Age Population for Wycombe District: 1993-2011 (Source: DWP Claimant Count. Note: Data relates to May and October of each year) ...... 36 Figure 36: Incapacity Benefit Claims by Working Age persons by Local Authority 2000-2011 (Source: DWP. Note: Data relates to May of each year) ...... 36 Figure 37: Proportion of Employees by Occupation 2011 and change 2001-11 (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011) ...... 37 Figure 38: Median Gross Annual Earnings for Employees and Residents in Wycombe District, by All Employees and Full-time Employees (Source: ASHE 2012) ...... 38 Figure 39: Proportion of Employees by Industry 2011 for Wycombe District, South East and England (Source: UK Census of Population 2011) ...... 39 Figure 40: Student population distribution by (%) of Ward population (Source: Census 2011) ...... 40 Figure 41: Student population distribution in High Wycombe (Source: Census 2011) ...... 41 Figure 42: Student Tenure ...... 42 Figure 43: Weekly Local Housing Allowance Thresholds for Broad Rental Market Areas in Wycombe District – March 2011 and July 2013 (Source: LHA Direct) ...... 44 Figure 44: Proportion of Dwelling Type by Area (Source: Valuation Office Agency, August 2012) ...... 49 Figure 45: Dwelling Characteristics (Source for Bedrooms, Area and Parking: Valuation Office Agency, September 2010; Second Homes: UK Census of Population 2011) ...... 50 Figure 46: Dwelling Age by Area (Source: Valuation Office Agency, August 2012) ...... 50 Figure 47: Houses in Multiple Occupation (Source: Census 2001/2011) ...... 51 Figure 48: Houses in Multiple Occupation by Ward (Source: Census 2001/2011) ...... 52 Figure 49: Proportion of overcrowded households 2011 and change 2001-11 for Wycombe and South East (Note: overcrowded households are considered to have an occupancy rating of -1 or less. Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)...... 53 Figure 50: Overcrowded households by tenure 2011 and change 2001-11 for Wycombe and South East (Note: overcrowded households are considered to have an occupancy rating of -1 or less. Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011)...... 53

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Figure 51: Proportion of People in Communal Housing by Type of Establishment in Wycombe District (Source: UK Census of Population 2011) ...... 54 Figure 52: Household Tenure by Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2001 and 2011. Note: Private Rent includes tied housing and living rent free) ...... 54 Figure 53: Average Price of Properties Sold in each LA: Q4 2000-Q4 2012 (Source: HM Land Registry)...... 55 Figure 54: Percentage of Properties Sold for Key Price Bands in 2000-12 (Source: HM Land Registry) ...... 56 Figure 55: Percentage of Properties Sold at £150k: 2000-12 (Source: HM Land Registry) ...... 56 Figure 56: Median Price of Properties Sold in Wycombe by property type: Q2 2000-Q2 2013 (Source: HM Land Registry) ...... 57 Figure 57: Buy to Let Mortgages 2006-2011 (Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders) ...... 58 Figure 58: Average and Median Monthly Rents in Wycombe (Source: Valuation Office Agency 2010-2013)...... 59 Figure 59: Median Monthly Rents in Wycombe (Source: Valuation Office Agency 2010-2013) ...... 59 Figure 60: Categories of Private Rented Housing by Area (Source: UK Census of Population 2011) ...... 60 Figure 61: Median Full-time Earnings to Average House Price Ratio for Properties Sold by LA area (Source: ASHE and HM Land Registry) ...... 65 Figure 62: Volume of Properties Sold Across Wycombe District: Q4 2000-Q4 2012 (Source: HM Land Registry. Note: Figures show rolling annual total based on quarterly data) ...... 66 Figure 63: Mortgage Possessions in Wycombe (Source: Ministry of Justice Mortgage and Landlord Possession statistics Q1 2003-Q4 2013)...... 67 Figure 64: Wycombe District Right to Buy sales 2001-2013 (Source: CLG and Red Kite) ...... 68 Figure 65: Local Authority Housing Relets for Wycombe (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2005-2011) ...... 69 Figure 66: Local Authority Dwellings let through mutual exchange in Wycombe (Source: Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2005-2011) ...... 69 Figure 67: Registered Social Landlords Relets for Wycombe (Source: The Continuous Recording of Lettings and Sales in Social Housing in England 2005-2012) ...... 70 Figure 68: Trends in the number of Housing Benefit claimants in England (Source: DWP) ...... 70 Figure 69: Growth in Housing Benefit Claimants in the Private Rented Sector April 2010-May 2012 for Local Authorities in the South East of England (Source: DWP) ...... 71 Figure 70: Housing Benefit in Private Rented Sector as a Share of Total Dwellings (Source: CLG Live Table 100 March 2011; DWP March 2012) ...... 72 Figure 71: Homeless Applications and Acceptances and Homeless Households in Temporary Accommodation Q1 2003- Q1 2011 (Source: Local Authority P1E Homelessness Data. Note: Number of cases based on 12- months to end of quarter) ...... 73 Figure 72: CLG Household Projections by Local Authority (Source: CLG Household Projections) ...... 78 Figure 73: Components of population change, revised in the light of the 2011 Census (Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates, revised. Note: “Other Changes” includes adjustments for asylum seekers, prisoners, armed forces and other unattributable changes. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100)...... 79 Figure 74: Assumed migration flows for population projections based on high-, mid- and low-trend migration scenarios ...... 80 Figure 75: Population projections 2011-31 comparing Nil, High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios ...... 81 Figure 76: Population projections 2011-31 by gender and 5-year age cohort based on High-, Mid-, Low-Trend and Nil Migration scenarios (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data)...... 81 Figure 77: Economic activity rates in 2011 for the general population and student population by age and gender (Note: Age distribution based on 2011 Census. Student population includes school children aged 16-17. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100) ...... 82

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Figure 78: Labour force projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures calculated by applying 2011 Economic Activity Rates rates to age distributions from ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate for 2011 and Projected Population for 2031. Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data) ...... 82 Figure 79: Economic Activity Rate long-term UK trends by age and gender (Source: Labour Market Statistics based on Labour Force Survey. Note: Linear trendlines based on data for period since 2001 added to illustrate possible future trends) ...... 83 Figure 80: Projected economic activity rates by age and gender (Note: Rates for population aged 25-74 based on equivalent UK trend-based projections (orange cells). Rates for general population aged 16-24 and aged 75+ held constant (light blue cells)) ...... 84 Figure 81: Labour force projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures calculated by applying 2011 Economic Activity Rates to age distributions from ONS Mid-Year Population Estimate for 2011 and projected trend-based Economic Activity Rates to the Projected Population for 2031. All figures presented unrounded for transparency, but should only be treated as accurate to the nearest 100) ...... 85 Figure 82: Population projections to 2031 by gender and 5-year age cohort based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Communal Establishment population held constant for population aged under 75 (light blue cells), and held proportionately constant for population aged 75 or over (orange cells). Household population and Total population figures rounded to nearest 100. Communal Establishment population rounded to the nearest 10. All calculations based on unrounded data) ...... 86 Figure 83: Household projections 2011-31 comparing High-, Mid- and Low-trend Migration scenarios ...... 88 Figure 84: Household projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios and 2008-based and 2011-based Headship Rates (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data) ...... 88 Figure 85: Population, labour force and household projections to 2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios (Note: Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data) ...... 89 Figure 86: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading) ...... 94 Figure 87: Comparison of Housing Demand and Supply in the HMA (Source: CLG, AMR, SHLAA; further details provided overleaf) ...... 96 Figure 88: Detailed Overview of the ORS Housing Mix Model (Note: Social Rented Housing also includes Affordable Rent) ...... 98 Figure 89: Overall Housing Requirement 2011-2031 based on High-, Mid- and Low-Trend Migration scenarios and 2008-based and 2011-based Headship Rates (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. Figures rounded to nearest 100. All calculations based on unrounded data) ...... 105 Figure 90: Theoretical impact of reducing Housing Benefit support for households living in private rented housing: Housing mix 2011-31 based on Mid-trend Migration and 2011-based Headship Rates ...... 106 Figure 91: Impact of alternative affordability multipliers for mortgage borrowing: Housing mix 2011-31 based on Mid-trend Migration and 2011-based Headship Rates ...... 107 Figure 92: Impact of alternative affordability multipliers for rental payments: Housing mix 2011-31 based on Mid- trend Migration and 2011-based Headship Rates ...... 107 Figure 93: Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures represented by “-“ show any shortfall or surplus which is less than 50, although this will normally be greater than 0. Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 108 Figure 94: Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates, assuming 30% of income for housing costs and a 4.0x mortgage multiplier (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which

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would be eligible for housing benefit support. All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures represented by “-“ show any shortfall or surplus which is less than 50, although this will normally be greater than 0. Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 108 Figure 95: Size Mix of Housing Requirement 2011-31 based upon Mid-trend Migration and 2011 Headship Rates, assuming 30% of income for housing costs and a 4.0x mortgage multiplier with market housing for those households with “borderline” affordability allocated based on the bedroom standard (Note: The “Social” category would include Social Rented Housing as well as any other forms of Affordable Housing for rent which would be eligible for housing benefit support. All figures rounded to the nearest 100. Figures represented by “-“ show any shortfall or surplus which is less than 50, although this will normally be greater than 0. Figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 109 Figure 96: Housing Register Applicants aged under 55 and in Priority Bands A-C: Size Mix of Housing Requirement compared with Modelled Size Mix for Social Rent/Affordable Rent (Source: Buck Home Choice) ...... 110 Figure 97: Benchmark Figures for Specialist Accommodation ...... 115 Figure 98: Older people aged 75+ Population Growth Projections 2011-2031 (Source: ONS 2010 Sub-National Population Projections) ...... 116 Figure 99: Older People aged 75+ Population Growth Projections to 2031 ...... 117 Figure 100: Implications of Older People Resource Pack Ratios based on Population Projection Scenarios (Note: figures may not sum due to rounding) ...... 117 Figure 101: Higher mobility allowance by age as (%) of age group (Source: DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) ...... 119 Figure 102: Higher mobility allowance by age as (%) of population (Source: DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS)...... 120 Figure 103: Higher mobility allowance by number 2011-2031 (Source: DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) ...... 120 Figure 104: Projected specialist housing requirements working age people to 2010-35 (Source: Buckinghamshire County Council)...... 121 Figure 105: Armed Forces living in Wycombe District (Source: Census 2011) ...... 121 Figure 106: Extra Pitches which are required in Wycombe District from 2013-2023 ...... 125 Figure 107: Housing Completions 2008-2-12 (Source AMR) ...... 127 Figure 108: Planning Permissions 2009-12 (Source: AMR) ...... 128 Figure 109: Affordable Housing Delivery 2006-2012 (Source: Local Authority Records)...... 130 Figure 110: Affordable Housing Delivery as a Proportion of all Housing Delivery 2006-2012 (Source: Local Authority Records) ...... 131 Figure 111: Recent trends in mortgage lending (£million) ...... 140 Figure 112: Functional Housing Sub-Markets in and around Wycombe district (Source: Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013. Note: Area outside the district shown in lighter shading) ...... 142

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Appendix E Audit of SHMA against draft Government Guidance issued August 2013

Guidance extract Response CHAPTER 1 This Chapter is background on the purpose of HMAs CHAPTER 2 Housing market area A review of existing studies and a review of available evidence was undertaken to update the HMA. The approach was based on the HMA area rather than the economic or trade draw area. CHAPTER 3 ‘…avoid expending significant resources on primary research The SHMA has been undertaken using secondary data (surveys, focus groups or interviews etc)… They should instead look to rely predominantly on secondary data… Starting point for establishing housing needs Household projections published by the Department for CLG Household projections have been used Communities and Local Government should provide the starting point estimate of overall housing need. …household projection-based estimate of housing need may Adjustments to Household projections have been considered using up to date population statistics require adjustment to reflect factors affecting local demography Updating projections …plan makers would need to assess likely trends after 2021 to This has been assessed align with their development plan periods. Adjustments to household projections These have been applied Sensitivity testing household projections Sensitivity testing has been applied using different assumptions including migration and economic growth Employment trends Growth in job numbers Taken into account Cross boundary migration This has been assessed Supply of working age population Taken into account Market signals Land prices Not taken into account

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Guidance extract Response House prices Taken into account Rents Taken into account Affordability Taken into account Rate of development stock/flow of land allocated, Not taken into account permissions granted and take up Overcrowding Taken into account Responding to market signals: Appropriate comparison of Taken into account indicators, Longer term trends locally, demographic and economic areas and nationally Need for all types of housing Breakdown by tenure, household type (singles, couples and Housing requirements assessed by type, size, mix and tenure families) and household size: the proportion of the population of different age profile; the types of household (eg singles, couples, families by age group, numbers of children and dependents); the current housing stock size of dwellings (eg one, two+ bedrooms); the tenure composition of housing. Private rented sector: understand the future need for private Market signals considered and assessed, including rental trends, the impact of welfare reform and the impact sector housing of unmet demand for affordable housing for rental and HMO demand People wishing to build their own homes: building plot Self-build is included; however, no consideration of sites/enquiries and no secondary data available website search, enquiries for building plots from local estate agents Family housing using local household projections Taken into account Housing for Older people Taken into account Households with specific needs Taken into account Calculating affordable housing Current and projected unmet need and subtracting from Taken into account using the ORS Housing Mix Model and the derived modelled output requirements supply of stock Types of household Unmet gross need for affordable housing Number of newly arising households Current total affordable housing supply Likely level of future housing supply of social relets (net) and intermediate affordable housing (excluding transfers) Relationship between current housing stock and future needs Total need for affordable housing

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Opinion Research Services | Wycombe Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2013 – Report of Findings Consultation Draft: January 2014

Guidance extract Response CHAPTER 4 Current market in relation to economic and main town centre SHMA based on ‘historic’ Guidance and these areas are outside their scope. Economic scenarios for future uses housing requirements have been taken in to account CHAPTER 5 Clear conclusions and any assumptions made…on predicted Taken into account need Consider existing and emerging housing and economic Taken into account strategies New assessments every 5 years n/a Monitoring information to include

housing and employment land and premises (current stock) Monitoring arrangements to be set out firmed during the closing of the SHMA Project database; housing and employment permissions granted, by type; housing and employment permissions developed by type, matched to allocated sites; housing and employment permissions for development of sites where change of use is involved; housing and employment land and premises available and recent transactions; housing and employment premises enquiries (if the authority has an estates team); housing developer or employer requirements and aspirations for houses and economic floorspace; housing waiting lists applications; the market signals.

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