UND ERSTANDING KENT AND meDWAY’S GROWTH 03 REQUIREMENTS THIS seCTION AIMS TO POO PULATI N PROJECTIOns SUMMARIse THE KEY IssUes IN THR ERE A E 2 DIFFERent POPULATION PROJECTIOns PLANNING FOR GROWTH IN KENT WHICH neeD TO be TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT: AND MEDWAY TO 2031. 1. 2012 Based Subnational Population Forecasts produced by the ONS As highlighted in the previous section, growth in Kent and Based on ONS census results, natural change and Medway is planned for through the Local Plan process migration trends. These are unconstrained projections. on an authority-by-authority basis. This section seeks to set the context for County-wide growth requirements and Provided at the Local Authority Level current planned growth areas as established within the Local Plans. U sed by Central Government departments and agencies for local authority funding It comprises: U sed by DCLG to produce the latest household POPULATION GROWTH REQUIREMENTS forecasts which inform Strategic Housing Market Area Population modelling and growth assumptions to 2031 Assessments (SHMAAs) A social portrait summarising current socio- T he ONS projection assumes a 2011 population of demographic issues and trends likely to impact on 1,731,400 for Kent and Medway (1,466,500 for Kent only) growth and infrastructure provision. I t projects a 2031 population of 2,035,900 - an increase an understanding of housing growth requirements and of 304,500, equivalent to 18% (255,300 for kent only) locations ECONOMIC GROWTH REQUIREMENTS 2. Kent & Medway Growth and Infrastructure Framework An economic portrait summarising current economic Scenario Forecast (KMGIF forecast) issues and trends A bespoke population forecast produced by KCC specifically for this framework to establish a population an understanding of employment requirements and forecast directly linked (and constrained) by the planned locations housing identified for this study. This growth context is then used as the basis for examining Based on ONS census results, natural change but infrastructure requirements. in the remainder of this constrained to the housing trajectories of planned Framework growth for each of the Local Authorities 22 | Kent County Council | Growth and Infrastructure Framework 25% 20% 19% 15% 9% 10% 10% 5% 4% 1% 0% -1% 0% -5% -2% -2% -4% -10% -10% -11% -15% -15% -20% FIGURE 3.1 -2031 POPULATION FORECASTS USED FOR GROWTH AND F IGURE 3.2 - KMGIF FORECASTS VARIATION FROM TREND BASED INFRASTRUCTURE plANNING IN Kent & MEDWAY ONS POPULATION FORECASTS L ocal Authority level data provided to KCC in May 2015 H OW THE POPULATION FORECAST VARY BY DISTRICT Whilst the housing trajectory based KMGIF forecasts T his KMGIF Forecast assumes a 2011 base population of and trend based ONS forecasts portray a similar total WHERE WE ARE NOW 2014/15 1,731,400 for Kent and Medway population change across Kent and Medway as a whole T he Growth and Infrastructure Framework presents the T he KMGIF Forecast projects a 2031 population of between 2011 and 2031 this masks some significant housing and population change to 2031 from 2011 due 2,024,700 - an increase of 293,300, equivalent to 17% variations between the Districts. to the availability of demographic, economic and local (250,700 for kent only) As shown in figure 3.2 the population forecasts which planning data. This report does acknowledge that we are have been driven by the current housing trajectory’s are now in 2015 and as such highlights the current population Note - All population figures presented within the report considerably higher in Canterbury, Dartford and Dover for Kent and Medway as 1,768,700 and the remaining level from this point refer to the KMGIF forecasts and not the where delivery is above demographic need as opposed to of population growth from this point as 262,700 people. ONS forecasts. the same forecast showing considerably less delivery in This effectively suggest that 12% of the 20 year population Sevenoaks, Swale and Tunbridge Wells compared to need. growth presented in this report has occurred already. It It should be noted that some districts have been planning is important to note that all costs and funding analysis according to housing need figures based on data released presented in the topic specific and District chapters is from prior to the 2012 based household projections which have today onwards and does not include historic costs and changed considerably in areas. funding pre 2014/15. Growth and Infrastructure Framework | Kent County Council | 23 3.1 SOCIAL PORTRAIT In 2011/12 the natural increase of Kent + Medway was THO E F LLOWING HEADLINES SUMMARISE KEY SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS THAT WILL AFFECT THE DISTRIBUTION OF GROWTH AND 4,398 people (+0.25%) PLANNING FOR SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2031. Kent + Medway will grow by at least 293,000 B IRTHS DEATHS natuRAL change people (17% increase) by 2031 T his growth will put the greatest pressure for new infrastructure between 2011-2021 as Kent + Medway grows by 167,000 20,458 16,060 4,398 2011 2021 2031 =20,000 In 2011/12 there was net international migration of 2,600 + + people into kent (+0.18%) (+167,000) (+126,000) IN-immigRANTS OUT-immigRANTS NET immigRANTS 1,730,000 1,898,000 2,025,000 F IGURE 3.3 8,600 6,000 2,600 However, this growth varies significantly within Kent + Medway, with the greatest increases currently projected in Medway, Dartford, and Canterbury Canterbury saw the biggest net-increase of 1,600 people (reflecting its University status) 60,000 Tonbridge and Malling, Tunbridge Wells saw net loss through internal migration. 50,000 40,000 In 2011/12 there was net internal migration (within UK) of 30,000 6,500 people into Kent (0.44%) 20,000 10,000 IN-MIGRANTS OUT-MIGRANTS NET migRANTS -2,000 T R E Y ne ING E L AM AY S FORD UR O LL NE V H W AK D T B ST A H HA DO SWA S EP Wells O E R R ID M T E H GE EN M WAYDA E A & AS FORD S V NT M E GRAV R SE CA DG NB RI TU ID nb TO 51,900 45,400 FIGURE 3.4 6,500 24 | Kent County Council | Growth and Infrastructure Framework Migration between Kent and other Migration between Kent and London parts of the UK 2002-11 2002-11 Kent’s future population growth will be driven by internal L ondon and Kent are increasing interconnected - the flow of migrants from migration, which has recently been a major population London into Kent is nearly 2:1 from 2002 - 2011, in which Kent received a net driver. Kent experienced a net increase of 61,250 migrants increase of 110,310 people from London. between itself and the rest of England and Wales. However, this is skewed by Kent’s relationship with London, in which Medway received 14% of migrants while Sevenoaks, Dartford, and Canterbury Kent saw an overall net loss of 49,060 migrants from 2002- all received 12%. Internal migration from London is heavily concentrated to the 2011 to the rest of England and Wales. West of Kent. 13,910 12,070 15,150 14,970 14,810 13,120 20,220 20,130 13,670 16,410 44,690 28,390 20,160 8,330 26,760 9,240 6,250 434,090 120,880 55,360 32,540 28,170 27,790 LOO ND N Medway Sevenoaks Dartford Canterbury Gravesham Ashford Shepway Dover Kent Y ORKSHIRE & THE T&M Thanet T W Maidstone Swale SE LDN EAst SW E. MIDS NW WD . MI S HUMBER WALES NE 16,730 4,030 12,480 4,460 6,020 13,430 6,150 7,420 8,410 6,550 7,570 7,670 421,730 53,090 6,600 19,960 231,190 16,340 10,020 30,880 20,660 17,940 17,670 FR IGU E 3.5 - InteRNAL MIGRATION betWEEN LONDON AND Kent LOCAL FIGURE 3.6 - InteRNAL MIGRATION betWEEN LONDON AND Kent AUTHORITIES (2002-2011) ONS LOCAL AUTHORITIES (2002-2011) (ONS) Growth and Infrastructure Framework | Kent County Council | 25 The population is ageing: the greatest increase in As the population gets older, working age residents will age categories will be those over 60, with the biggest decline by 4% in their total share of the population by increase in 85+ 2031, whereas elderly will increase their share by 5% of the population 2013 2031 85+ Female 20112013 80-84 Female 20312031 75-79 MalesMale 2011 2013 20-65 70-74 65-69 MalesMale 2031 2031 60-64 55-59 50-54 56% 52% 45-49 40-44 35-39 Age 30-34 25-29 70+ 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 13% 18% FIGURE 3.9 0-4 Percentage of the population Traditional housing characteristics F IGURE 3.7 New Persons by Age Bracket dominate in Kent & Medway As the population ages, 80+ this will alter infrastructure 70-79 18% 1 Person demands in Kent and Live in 30% Household apartmernts As the elderly Medway. Changing 60-69 population requirements for housing increases this will 50-59 82% typologies, to increasing likely create greater needs for healthcare and Live in One Family demand for 1 40-49 houses accessible infrastructure Couple person households, will likely rise as those 30-39 Social 45% Household as well as Rented apartments. kent’s over the age of 60 increase 20-29 current housing quicker in real terms 14% characteristics 10-19 17% have not adapted Private Lone Parent to the changing 0-9 67% Rented 10% Household demographic profiles -5,000 5,000 20,000 40,000 70,000 = 5,000 People Owned FIGURE 3.10 FIGURE 3.8 26 | Kent County Council | Growth and Infrastructure Framework Q uality of life is generally high across Kent & Medway however this masks an east/west variation However, there are clear pockets of deprivation in certain urban areas such as Chatham, Gillingham, Gravesend, Folkestone and Dover as well as peripheral coastal and estuarial areas including the Isle of Sheppey and parts of Thanet.