Echoes of 1957: a Realignment in the Making?

ECHOES OF 1957: A REALIGNMENT IN THE MAKING?

John Meisel

The 1957 election unexpectedly ushered in an era of minority governments in Canada. Following John Diefenbaker’s stunning minority win in the election of June 10, 1957, he was returned with the famous landslide of 1958, only to be reduced to a minority in 1962, followed by the Pearson Liberal minorities of 1963 and 1965. Of all these minority results, the 1957 outcome was the most significant one, “a realigning election,” as John Meisel writes. Author of the classic text, The Canadian Electionof 1957, Meisel observes from his listening post at Queen’s University that there are remarkable similarities and obvious differences between the 2004 and 1957 elections, but suggests that many signs point to a minority government and concludes “a realignment is taking place no matter what the outcome of 2004.”

Le scrutin fédéral du 10 juin 1957 a inauguré au Canada une ère de gouvernements minoritaires. L’élection inopinée de John Diefenbaker a certes été suivie de son écrasante victoire de 1958, mais ce dernier a été réélu en 1962 à la tête d’un gouvernement minoritaire renversé dès l’année suivante par les libéraux de Lester B. Pearson, également minoritaires. Tout comme ils l’ont été deux ans plus tard, en 1965. Mais le tout premier de ces scrutins minoritaires, celui de 1957, reste le plus marquant pour son effet de « réalignement », écrit John Meisel, auteur de L’Élection canadienne de 1957, un grand classique du genre. Depuis Queen’s University, il note de frappantes similitudes entre les élections de 2004 et 1957, par ailleurs différentes à maints égards. Il n’en repère pas moins plusieurs signes annonciateurs d’un gouvernement minoritaire et conclut qu’on « assiste à un réalignement, quel que soit l’issue du prochain scrutin ».

short while ago the impending election was seen as When the electoral support of the major contenders is close, a sizeable yawn. But then the sponsorship scandal and when at the same time “third” parties do relatively well, A turned into a puff of smoke the expectation that no one party can muster a majority in the House of Paul Martin would coast effortlessly to a majority govern- Commons. The recent emergence of regionally based voic- ment. The long-standing, seemingly unassailable Liberal es, like the Bloc Québécois, Reform and Alliance, enhances lead in the polls has shrunk dramatically, raising the spectre this tendency, even though their geographical concentra- that Canada would find itself in 2004 with a minority gov- tion of support may impede their votes being translated fair- ernment, and might even witness moving day at 24 Sussex ly into seats. More about that later. Drive. These possibilities invite us to examine the events In what follows I compare the present scene with that from 1957 to 1968 — one of Canada’s most striking eras of prevailing almost fifty years ago. I then explore the question electoral instability and minority governments. Pierre of whether history may repeat itself and again deprive the Trudeau also failed to win a majority in 1972 but this was a expected winner of a majority, thereby initiating a realign- minor blip in our electoral history, offering few parallels ment of the Canadian party system. It will be recalled that applicable to the present situation. Nineteen seventy-two the hegemonic Mackenzie King-Louis St-Laurent Liberal was clearly not what political scientists categorize as a party sailed into the 1957 election with full anticipation of realigning election; 2004 may become one. victory, only to be deprived of a majority by the Progressive Whatever the case, 1972 confirms the fact that even Conservatives under the newly elected John Diefenbaker, though our first-past-the-post electoral system normally who replaced St-Laurent as prime minster. He converted his produces Parliamentary majorities, there are exceptions. 1957 House of Commons minority into an unprecedentedly

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massive majority in the 1958 election, g o v e r n m e n t ’s effort to ram through another card: he did not discourage sharp on the heels of his unexpected the House legislation favouring the being seen as a Westerner, not identi- assumption of office. But his unri- construction of a pipeline, in part fied with central Canada, and he pre- valled performance on the stump was benefiting some American business- sented himself also as the champion of not matched by his skill in running a men friends of C.D. Howe — the various, often overlooked groups — government. He lost his majority in tough “Minister for Everything.” An ethnic minorities among others — the 1962 election and was removed equally provocative decision was to excluded from the Canadian establish- from office by that of 1963, when he amend the Defence Production Act g i v- ment. The Liberal Party was ubiqui- was challenged by Lester Pearson. ing the ministers powers that were tously seen as the party of French Canada and of Quebec. It will be recalled that the hegemonic Mackenzie King-Louis While not overtly attacking St-Laurent Liberal party sailed into the 1957 election with full this link, Diefenbaker tacit- ly distanced himself and anticipation of victory, only to be deprived of a majority by his party from any Gallic the Progressive Conservatives under the newly elected John taint, thereby sidling up to Diefenbaker. He converted his 1957 House of Commons many in the West and in minority into an unprecedentedly massive majority in the rural Ontario. There was a clear electoral payoff here, 1958 election, sharp on the heels of his unexpected one which may also await assumption of office. But his unrivalled performance on the Stephen Harper’s Conserva- stump was not matched by his skill in running a government. tive party, although Quebec is no longer a Liberal bas- Despite his glittering reputation, and deemed to be quite extraordinary and tion. The difference between now and undoubted legislative achievements, threatening, particularly in peacetime. then, however, is that the St-Laurent Pearson, however, failed to win a The repeated imposition of closure Liberals had a lot to lose in the West, majority in either the 1963 or 1965 and arrogant stance of the Liberals whereas the Chrétien and Martin Lib- elections — something the Liberals provoked not only the opposition but erals have been underdogs there only achieved in 1968, when Pierre also alienated many of the govern- thanks chiefly to Trudeau’s policies Trudeau succeeded him. m e n t ’s supporters in the media and and demeanour. Since there are both parallels and the public. Among the reasons for minority divergencies between 2004 and 1957, Thus, the St-Laurent government governments in 1957, and then again it is instructive to explore the two situ- was vulnerable on issues that lent in 1962, 1963 and 1965, is that the ations and particularly to ask ourselves themselves to powerful exploitation CCF/NDP and the Social Credit parties what circumstances in the earlier peri- by the opposition in Parliament and won respectable numbers of seats, od facilitated the emergence of an era on the hustings. The latter venue ranging from 35 in 1965 to 49 in 1962. of minority governments. turned into a formidable resource for The current revival in Quebec of the the Progressive Conservatives. The Parti Québécois and the survival of the iberal governments had been in party’s patrician leader, George Drew, NDP elsewhere guarantee that the L office for 22 years prior to the had just retired and was replaced by third-party phenomenon, which was 1957 election and eleven before 2004. the somewhat quirky John of critical importance in the earlier But the “time for a change” theme was D i e f e n b a k e r, a Saskatchewan lawyer period, will again be present in the not as inappropriate as might seem at and MP who had made a name for 2004 contest. first glance even at the start of the himself as a civil libertarian. The principal convergences in Martin era. The Liberal Party (a.k.a. electoral factors between the present “the government party”) had come to populist Westerner, Dief injected and the earlier contest are, therefore, see itself, and be seen, as the natural A a completely new element into the baggage the Liberals carried, and and normal ruler of Canada, only to the party and in fact altered its visage carry, for being a long-standing over- be relieved of governing under rare and orientation. During the campaign, bearing government party; profoundly and exceptional circumstances. As he countered the rather tired image of upsetting scandals and shocking gov- such, it developed many characteris- St-Laurent with the fiery and impas- ernment offences; the arrival of a new tics associated with long tenures in sioned oratory of a revivalist preacher. leader challenging the Liberals in areas power: arrogance, inefficiency, exten- He also offered a catching (if unrealis- of their weakness; and the presence, sive reliance on patronage and whiffs tic) vision of the future, in which among the contenders, of third parties of scandal turning into gales. The Canada would develop its vast North. possibly depriving the Liberals of a principal cause célèbre in 1957 was the The new leader also subtly played majority. All of these point to a likeli-

10 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2004 Echoes of 1957: a realignment in the making? hood that the government party might come to grief. But other factors under- score significant differences between then and now, which may affect the outcome in contradictory ways — they may annul the déjà vu phenomenon, or reinforce it.

oth major parties offer telling con- B trasts between the two elections. Harper is no t Dief. Quite apart from the stigma (anathema to important parts of the electorate) linked to the right wing and reactionary positions of Reform and Alliance, with which he was associated, and his one-time flirtation with a Western separatism, he completely lacks his predecessor’s exciting and catching vision and oratory. Harper’s image of a competent accountant is no match to Diefenbaker’s inspired Pied Pi p e r . The Prairie lawyer really had that much-abused word, charisma, and succeeded in igniting the multitudes. Another feature favouring a minority outcome in 2004 is the difference between the earlier and recent Liberal governments. St-Laurent, although in decline by 1957, was a much loved and profoundly respected leader of whom the whole Liberal party was proud. Although he had become a bit tetchy by then, his han- dlers managed, most of the time, to revive the previously irresistible The Gazette, Montreal benign persona of the lovable Uncle Prime Minister St-Laurent meets with Conservative Leader Diefenbaker several days after the Louie. The government party was, at watershed election of June 10, 1957, to agree on the handover of power. When Diefenbaker any rate, completely united. Compare formed a government on June 21, it was the first Conservative Cabinet since 1935. that to the 2004 Liberals. The long fes- tering challenge by Paul Martin of Jean Chrétien’s leadership, the bitterness of old regime. This affects the leadership current Liberals will, at least in some their antagonism, the shabby treat- but may not necessarily diminish the areas, confront problems greater than ment of Chrétien loyalists by the effectiveness of forces on the ground. those encountered by their predeces- Martinis (as I like to think of them) It is easy to exaggerate the disarray sors 47 years ago. In St-Laurent’s day, and the decimation of the antebellum among the old guard. I have not seen the cabinet comprised strong minis- cabinet — all resulted in deep Liberal survey data on this point but expect ters — none more so than Jimmy disunity. Morale is low and resentment that in at least some constituencies Gardiner in the West — who were vis- deep. It is difficult to foresee electoral Liberal organizations will miss the ible and powerful departmental and élan in constituencies where parachut - services of the old hands, and Grit regional barons delivering not only ed new candidates replaced folks who turnout will be low. patronage but also votes. In the era of had stuck with Chrétien. a lordly PMO, other mighty central There is no doubt that enthusiasm quite different but related phe- agencies, and the Imperial prime min- for the new Liberal party has dimin- A nomenon, attributable this time istership, the government case is pre- ished substantially among a large to Messrs. Trudeau and Chrétien, sented by fewer and less exalted number of activists identified with the strengthens the impression that the members of the cabinet. Absent a

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much admired, telegenic and ubiqui- direct appeal to this alleged desire. One of the similarities between the tous prime minister, this can become a Whether it will work this time remains two elections privileged here needs fur- serious handicap. to be seen and will, in any event, ther development. It is the conse- Recent Liberal victories were depend on the nature of the campaign. quences of scandals associated with the achieved in part because the vote on There is some dissatisfaction within government party. While they figure the party’s right was split between the the party over Martin’s choice of lead- prominently in both contests, the old Tories and Reform or Alliance. ers within the provincial campaign effects will likely differ. The sponsor- Now that a new Conservative party team — notably former MP Jean ship imbroglio, coming on top of other has emerged, the third-party factor is, Lapierre, who in 1990 bolted the highly damaging revelations putting in in one way, less acute. The Liberals are Liberals to help found the Bloc — question not only the efficiency of the bound to feel this in many constituen- which will make the task of compen- Chrétien administration, but also its cies, particularly in populous Ontario. sating for Ontario losses more difficult. in t e g r i t y , led to a massive drop in sup- While this is irrelevant to a 1957/2004 The unpopularity of the Charest gov- port for the government, but intrigu- comparison, it bears on the likelihood ernment only compounds the prob- ingly only after Martin had taken over. of a minority government. As the pro- lem. Equally in Ontario, there could The Liberal party under its teflon- tagonists of a “united Right” have cor- well be a sideswipe effect on the feder- coated little guy from Shawinigan rectly argued, the fusion of the voters al Liberals as a result of the provincial withstood suffering a significant loss of to the right of the Liberals under one Liberal government’s budget and its p o p u l a r i t y, notwithstanding report umbrella is bound to affect the num- hefty increase in health care premi- after report of bungled programs or ber of seats the Liberals are likely to ums, deducted at source from voters’ “careless” transactions. It is hard to say take. It remains to be seen whether for- paycheques. whether the difference is to be ascribed mer PC supporters will flock to the to his handling of the Martin chal- new party, switch to others, or abstain. otwithstanding the foregoing, lenge, damning and highly dramatized Much will depend on the program and N which implicitly argues for a reports of the auditor general, the campaign of the Harper party. There is minority government, there is evi- advent of Stephen Harper and a “unit- no doubt, however, that the Liberals dence that the new Conservative party ed alternative,” or the pitcher going to will no longer be able to dominate is also not as unified or homogeneous the well too often. At any rate, after the Ontario as before. as it might wish. More precisely, not all assumption of power by the new PM, It looks as if they were also going previous supporters of Alliance and the and the releases of Sheila Fraser’s cata- to suffer in Quebec. The sponsorship Tories may vote for the Harper party. logues of crimes, the polls indicated scandal, which not only upset The treachery of Peter MacKay in bury- that the Liberals’ electoral support Quebecers but also insulted them ( it is ing the Progressive Conservatives, and which had not been far below 50 per- seen by many as growing out of the the manner chosen to form the new cent dropped to below 40 percent, and assumption that its targets were party and elect a leader, offended some thus into potential minority territory. gullible idiots), has led to a fantastic c o n s e rvatives, particularly a few revival of the Bloc and its massive prominent Red Tories. While the anti- t - L a u r e n t ’s crew also hovered superiority in most Francophone con- merger group, which sees the change S around 50 percent. The Gallup Poll stituencies. This will make it much as a takeover by Alliance of the PC immediately prior to the election fore- more difficult to retain a majority of party, is relatively small, it includes cast a 48 percent Liberal vote, com- seats, since the expected compensa- some highly visible and respected indi- pared with the actual result which was tion in Quebec for certain losses in viduals. Their discontent and that of almost six percent lower. This piece is Ontario is unlikely to occur. The other former Tory voters will not affect being written before the 2004 election strength of a third party in Quebec the outcome in the West but may be has even been called, so the critical thus enhances the chances of a minor- felt in Ontario. If this happens, the polling is yet to come. But the public ity government and of creating an likelihood of a majority Liberal gov- has already been treated to what looks echo of 1957. ernment would be enhanced. Still, the a bit like a Liberal free fall, unknown in schism within the Liberal party, and 1957. No one expected a minority gov- t used to be said, without much the way in which it is being handled, ernment in the first St-Laurent/ I hard evidence, that Quebecers like is much more serious than that con- Diefenbaker duel, whereas such an out- to be on the winning side in an elec- fronting their principal opponents. come this time is a decided possibility. tion and therefore vote for the party Overall, the internal tensions within The far-reaching psychological impact which they think will form the gov- the major parties are more likely to of this difference need not be elaborat- ernment. Martin’s strenuous efforts to hurt the Martinis than the Harperites ed. It may induce some wavering persuade Quebecers of how essential it and hence increase the chances of a Liberals to come, as the saying goes, to is that they give him their support is a minority result. the support of their party, but I think

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The Gazette, Montreal John Diefenbaker, the Prairie firebrand, at the peak of his oratorical powers in December 1956. Going into the 1957 election, he was given little chance of defeating the Liberals, then 22 consecutive years in office. Instead, in one of the great electoral upsets of the 20th century, Dief broke the back of the Liberal dynasty by winning a minority, which he transformed the next year into the largest majority in Canadian history. Could the 2004 campaign set up as that kind of election? that a much larger number of potential was temporary, possibly because the in contemporary Canada (and else- giant-killers is likely to smell blood and Diefenbaker performance in govern- where), of a massive decline in trust in act accordingly. The polls may, in part, ment was rather feeble. Its short dura- government and party, party identifica- fashion a self-fulfilling prophecy. tion was also linked to the powerful tion and loyalty, and in turnout. grip of the Liberals on Quebec. It is my We are, in other words, witnessing he pipeline and Defence impression that the recent scandals systemic changes in our politics which, T Production Act issues in the 1950s have been much more shocking and inter alia, create volatile situations in were shocking to some, but by compar- have caused a more profound alien- which people’s decisions are becoming ison with the sponsorship and earlier ation of the voters from the Grits. more opportunistic, or if this is too Liberal scandals of the Chrétien era, Indeed, I wonder whether the impact loaded a term, more flexible and they were small potatoes. But, accom- of current events has not been so pow- unstructured. This is likely to produce panied by the arrival of a brilliant erful as to shock people away, so to minority governments more often Co n s e r vative campaigner, they did lead speak, from their traditional party than heretofore. some former Liberals to detach them- moorings. This certainly appears to be A related phenomenon concerns selves from the party. But, as subse- the case in Quebec. The process is all the general nature of society and the quent elections showed, the alienation the stronger for the general tendency, electorate. The demographic, socio-

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economic and settlement patterns of time but are unlikely to exceed 5 per- centimetres farther and state that Canada in the 21st century are colos- cent of support. chances are greater than not that the sally at variance with those prevailing Liberals will lose their majority. But when Dief hove on the scene. One hat leaves the prime minister. In the having been so foolhardy as almost to question will have to suffice to make T Finance portfolio he was widely commit myself, I hasten to add that it the point: do we know whether the hailed as one of the most effective does not much matter one way or current population, whose origins are Chrétien ministers. The press adored an o t h e r . increasingly non-European and far him. What a change! Somehow he has Why do I espouse this seemingly removed from the conventions of the frittered away much admiration and insouciant line? Because a realignment is Westminster model of government, goodwill. Among the reasons is his divi- taking place no matter what the outcome this new electorate, is likely to react to sive handling of the leadership issue and of 2004. The right has united, although it scandals or the notion of majority gov- the vindictive treatment by his people of did it in a clumsy and extremely danger- ernments in a manner similar or com- several ministers and others who did not ous way. What remains to be seen is parable to that of 1957? Or is it plain support his leadership bid. Once in whether the new hybrid will succeed in foolish to seek comparisons between office, he seemed to be lacking vision, escaping the Alliance clutches and pro- the Canada of fifty years ago and the loyalty to his former team and ability to vide a Centre-Right program acceptable new country unfolding before our eyes. Apples The Liberal Party (a.k.a. “the government party”) had come and pears? to see itself, and be seen, as the natural and normal ruler of I guess that the new Canada, only to be relieved of governing under rare and Canada, less bound by old conventions and shibbo- exceptional circumstances. As such, it developed many leths, is electorally less characteristics associated with long tenures in power: anchored and more pre- arrogance, inefficiency, extensive reliance on patronage and disposed to change alle- whiffs of scandal turning into gales. giance, and likely also to be less horrified by minority govern- inspire, and he showed inconsistency in to the mainstream of Canadians or, more ments. It may even jettison the first- tackling the democratic deficit in the th r e a t e n i n g l y , whether Canadians who past-the-post electoral system. Liberal party, and a greater proclivity for have, alas, supported Neanderthal campaigning than for governing. These regimes in some provincial jurisdictions hile these reflections are a bit are early impressions and may be revised. can be persuaded to elect an extreme W remote, they are relevant. I But he failed one critical test: his heroic right-wing government. Before the elec- shall, nevertheless, return to more attempt to distance himself from the tion and re-election of the Harris govern- short-term perspectives apposite to the sponsorship scandal and restore some of ment in Ontario and the advent of majority/minority dilemma. Electoral the party’s previous support was unsuc- Premier Campbell in BC, I would have outcomes depend, in good part, on the cessful and indeed antagonized impor- said that this can never happen. History image and performance of the leaders. tant elements in his party. Admittedly, he has chastened this naive view. But the I have earlier expressed some reticence was caught in an unenviable position but chances are much greater that the about the electioneering assets of it is exactly such situations that test the Co n s e r vative party will in its good time Stephen Harper. A fuller, and likely bet- mettle of leaders. He does exude an aura — one, two, three elections from now — ter informed assessment, can be found of competence and may yet recover lost provide a responsible alternative to the elsewhere in this issue of Policy Options. ground. But up to now he has failed to Liberals and that our party system will What of the others? Jack Layton has ignite the new Liberal party. This suggests return to the classic “two plus” model. been effective within the limits of his that he may not be able to stem the loss We are on a realigning track, no matter ci r cumstances but it is clear that the of Liberal support sufficiently to preserve what happens next. NDP is not about to make a break- a majority. through. This is odd, considering the Where does all this leave us? In the John Meisel, Sir Edward Peacock general party alignment, but need not 1960s, I acquired some notoriety by Professor of Political Science Emeritus at be analyzed here. Gilles Duceppe has accurately and at times improbably pre- Queen’s University, is the author of the handled himself effectively and may, as dicting minority governments. More definitive Canadian campaign text, The we have seen, lead the Bloc to becom- grizzled now, and less daring, I am only Canadian General Election of 1957, ing a majority spoiler. He is playing his willing to say that the chances are great published by University of Toronto Press now strong hand shrewdly and effec- that there will be a minority govern- (1962). He has written on every ti v e l y . The Greens are nominating can- ment which may begin a party realign- Canadian election since 1957. didates in all constituencies for the first ment. I am even willing to go a few [email protected]

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