The Global Energy Outlook 2021 PATHWAYS FROM PARIS

Daniel Raimi Seth Villanueva

June 8, 2021 Resources for the Future Washington, DC Richard Newell Daniel Raimi Seth Villanueva Brian Prest The RFF Global Energy Outlook team

Ross van der Linde Lauren Dunlap Justine Sullivan Hillary Alvare

2 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 About the Global Energy Outlook

Numerous organizations produce long-term energy outlooks—but they are difficult to compare directly • Primary energy reporting units: TOEs, Quads, and Joules, oh my! • Primary energy content:

≠ ≠ ≠ ≠

• And much more We harmonize these differences to provide an apples-to-apples comparison, better illustrating the full range of potential energy futures

3 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 About the Global Energy Outlook

We harmonize these differences to provide an apples-to-apples comparison, better illustrating the full range of potential energy futures

= = = =

4 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 We group and label scenarios according to source and policy/technology assumptions

*Equinor Rivalry scenario assumes continued geopolitical challenges.

5 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Ambitious Climate scenarios call for energy transition, while Reference and Evolving Policies mostly find additions

Qbtu Total Energy Use by Fuel Type 700 Other 600 renewables Wind 500 Solar 400 Hydro 300 Biomass 200

100 Nuclear

0

2040 Note: Historical data from IEA and Grubler (2009). BP excludes non-marketed biomass. OPEC does not publish wind- or solar-specific data.

6 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Fossil fuel demand falls, renewables surge in Ambitious Climate scenarios Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Type Qbtu 2°C 1.5°C 700 Other 600 renewables Wind 500 Solar 400

300 Hydro

200 Biomass

100 Nuclear 0

2040

Note: Historical data from IEA. BP excludes non-marketed biomass.

7 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Wind and solar rise and shine

TWh Global wind electricity generation TWh Global solar electricity generation 30,000 30,000

25,000 25,000

20,000 20,000

15,000 15,000

10,000 10,000

5,000 5,000

0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

8 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Global CO2 emissions flatten with Reference and Evolving Policies, plummet under 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios BP BAU Global CO2 Emissions BMT BP Net Zero 40 BP Rapid Equinor Rebalance Equinor Reform 30 Equinor Rivalry IEA Historical

20 IEA SDS IEA STEPS IEA NZE 10 IPCC IP1 IPCC IP2 IPCC IP3 0 IPCC IP4 IRENA Planned -10 IRENA Transforming 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OPEC

Note: Net emissions calculated where available by summing gross emissions and negative emissions (e.g., biomass with carbon capture and storage).

9 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Global carbon intensity must fall to reach 1.5 and 2°C climate goals

MMT CO2/QBtu Global Emissions Intensity 80

60

40

20

0

-20 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

10 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 There’s much more to see in the 2021 GEO

• Fuel-specific projections through 2050 • Deeper look at the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5°C scenarios • Post-COVID population and GDP growth • Past and future of global energy intensity

11 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Explore the data • Harmonized data from all sources are available online • Visualize, sort, and download data • Includes outlooks from 2016 though 2020 and historical data

www.rff.org/geo

We welcome your feedback. Please send questions, comments, or suggestions to Daniel Raimi ([email protected]), Seth Villanueva ([email protected]), or Richard Newell ([email protected]).

12 Daniel Raimi and Seth Villanueva | The Global Energy Outlook | Resources for the Future | Washington, DC | June 8, 2021 Thank you!

Find out more about RFF: www.rff.org Explore the data: www.rff.org/geo Follow us on Twitter: @rff; @danielraimi Subscribe to receive updates: rff.org/subscribe