The Petrodollars and the World Economy

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The Petrodollars and the World Economy A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Lütkenhorst, Wilfried; Minte, Horst Article — Digitized Version The petrodollars and the world economy Intereconomics Suggested Citation: Lütkenhorst, Wilfried; Minte, Horst (1979) : The petrodollars and the world economy, Intereconomics, ISSN 0020-5346, Verlag Weltarchiv, Hamburg, Vol. 14, Iss. 2, pp. 84-89, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02930203 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/139600 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu RECYCLING The Petrodollars and the World Economy by Wilfried LStkenhorst, Horst Minte, Bochum * The quadrupling of the oil price by the OPEC in 1973 was a poignant event in the post-war develop- ment of the world economy. Which measures and mechanisms conduced to the international income redistribution 1 necessitated by the hoisting of the oil prices in the past five years? he raising of the oil price by the OPEC was importing countries was unable to acquire the re- T anything but a "normal" modification of rela- sources for the additional transfers to the oil ex- tive prices of traded goods even if the political porting states through trade with third countries; and psychological side issues are left out of ac- from the OPEC states alone could these resources count. It could not be otherwise, so large and be obtained. On the other hand it was to be ex- abrupt was the change and so outstanding is the pected that the different conditions of individual quantitative importance of mineral oils in interna- importing countries in regard to dependence upon tional trade and their strategic significance for the OPEC oil, ability to export to the OPEC area and industrialization and economic growth processes attractiveness for petrodollar investments would of the oil importing countries. How then was it bring about major shifts inside the bloc of oil im- possible for the near-panic engendered by the ex- porting countries. pectation of continuing accumulation of foreign [] Secondly, the process of income redistribution currency holdings by the OPEC states to be su- was conceived to be a continuous one; unlike rep- perseded by wide-spread trust in the effectiveness aration payments for instance which are made of the petrodollar recycling mechanism and the once and not again, it posed special problems of ability of the international economic system to structural adjustment to a permanently worsened cope successfully with this problem? 2 distribution of trade gains (terms of trade), to al- tered cost structures and changes in national and The Petrodollar Problem sectoral export patterns. In the OECD countries the petrodollar problem [] Thirdly, the transfer had been forced on the has often been discussed in the historic context industrialized states by developing countries, a fact which kept alive the hope that the OPEC of "classic transfer problems" such as occur in cartel might collapse as the result of military or connection with war debts and reparations. The analysis therefore operated in similar categories 3 political action or simply through the working of There are however significant specific features of market forces, so that appropriate economic ad- justments could be avoided, while it created at the the petrodollar problem which must not be ig- same time much uncertainty about the likely con- nored: [] The first one is that all important trading na- 3 G. Tic h y, iOIkosten - ein Transferproblem (Oil costs - a transfer problem), in: Sparkasse, No. 2/1975, p. 29 ft., on the basis tions belong to one or other of two blocs facing of F. M a c h I u p, Das Transferproblem -- Thema und vier Varia- tionen (The transfer problem - theme and four variations), in: each other 4, with the result that the bloc of the oil ORDO 1963, p. 139 ff.; J. W e I c k e r, I~lschulden als Transfer- problem (Oil debts as a transfer problem), in: Konjunkturpolitik * Ruhr-Universit&t Bochum. 1975, p. 71 ff.; H. B. O h e n e r y, Restructuring the World Econ- omy, in: World Development, No. 10-12, 1975, p. 3ft.; W. L (J t- 1 According to Triffin this involved 1.8% of the GNP of the k e n h o r s t, H. M i n t e, Probleme des monet&ren und realen OECD states. This average applies also to the Federal Republic Transfers. Die Aufbringung und Verwendung tier Petrodollar of Germany; for the EC the redistribution amounted to 2.4%. (Problems of monetary and real transfer. The generation and (Quoted from Y. S. P a r k, Oil Money and the World Economy, utilization of petrodollars), in: M. T ietzel (ed.), Die Energie- Boulder, Colorado, 1976, p. 79.) krise: FSnf Jahre danach (The energy crisis: Five years later), Bonn 1978, p. 37 ff. (English edition forthcoming). 2 Cf. "Die Katastrophe fand nicht statt" (The catastrophy did not take place), a euphemistic article dealing only with the outlook 4 The centrally planned economies and the quantitatively insig- for the well-performing industrialized countries, in: Die Zeit, Oc- nificant oil exporting countries outside the OPEC are disregarded tober 13, 1978, p. 18. in this simplifying bipartite view. 84 INTERECONOMICS, March/April 1979 RECYCLING duct of these states in the international commod- in view of the existing currency and inflation risk 6 ity and financial markets. the OPEC states could not be interested in accu- mulating an unlimited amount of petrodollars, the Collection and Utilization of Petrodollars less so as the acquisition of real assets abroad, which would have done most to lessen the infla- The effectuation of the real transfer of petrodol- tion risk, tended to cause resistance in the recip- lars - and under comparative-static aspects this ient countries. alone is of interest - is in actual fact achieved through adjustment processes. The petrodollar Against a maximization of the adjustment velocity problem proper arises from the concrete reper- and, thus, the immediate effectuation of the real cussions of these processes on individual actors transfer operated the limitations on the internal and the need and means for their political control. absorptive capacity of the OPEC countries them- The internal collection of the petrodollars in the selves. These have been the subject of many dis- oil importing countries posed no problem in this cussions; in the early prognoses on the accumu- context inasmuch as - this was one effect of the lation of petrodollars they were greatly overrated. oil shock syndrome - neither subsequent pro- Bearing in mind the limited number of short-term ducers nor the final consumers offered any resis- investment opportunities and the lack of comple- tance to the additional costs being passed on to mentary production factors (human capital, infra- them. structure) in most OPEC countries, the case for short-term transformation of the petrodollars into In monetary terms the external provision of the imports seemed however unrealistic. petrodollars by the bloc of oil importing states was, likewise, relatively unproblematic inasmuch Immediate real transfers also faced serious ob- as the OPEC states had no choice but to accept stacles from the point of view of the oil importing payment in the currencies of the importing states countries: in the first place it seems reasonable in settlement of their current account surpluses - to ascribe the limited absortive capacity of certain at least as long as they abstained from balancing OPEC countries in some part to the unavailability their current accounts by reducing exports, which of innovative supplies matching the specific needs was politically out of question. and factor equipment of the OPEC states and to the absence of appropriate marketing concepts in As the OPEC states would not however accept all the industrialized states. Moreover, the interpos- the currencies of the oil importing states but pay- ments in the international oil trade are for the ing of a transition period made it also easier for the oil importing states to establish new produc- most part made in US dollars, many oil importing tion patterns on the supply side and mitigated the states had to turn to the international capital mar- need for domestic adjustments on the demand kets or draw on bi- or multilateral public credits to effect the necessary monetary transfers. Pro- side, for many of these states decided to reduce the cost pressure due to higher oil prices by a posals to introduce a basket of currencies as unit of account - as is regularly suggested whenever suitable monetary policy. Had the OPEC states in the dollar runs into a crisis - would leave the pre- this situation insisted on full-scale real transfers dominant position of the US-dollar unchanged. and used all their petrodollars for the purchase of goods, the already existing structural and supply- At the same time the OPEC states had to look for oriented inflationary impulses would have been profitable outlets for their financial assets, which reinforced by substantial impulses from the de- they could only find in the big capital markets of mand side 7.
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