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Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises the Argument for Cycle Attenuation
Business and Financial Cycles Post-Bretton-Woods Problems Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises The Argument for Cycle Attenuation Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe Rice University & Baker Institute for Public Policy October 2008 Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe – London, October 27, 2008 Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises Business and Financial Cycles Financial Crises and Energy Prices Post-Bretton-Woods Problems The Role of Recycled Petrodollars Frequency and Causes of Crises Globalizations Past and Present Reckless Lending Era 1850s–1870s: Major currency and banking crises Gold Standard Era 1880–1913: Some currency and banking crises Between Wars 1919–1939: Numerous currency and banking crises Bretton Woods 1945–1971: Many currency crises but no banking crises Dollar Era 1973–present: Numerous currency & many banking crises Trade surpluses, Reckless Lending, and Recent Crises 1980–present: 1980s Scandinavia & Latin America: Reckless lending fueled bubbles that collapsed with oil prices, leading to currency and banking crises 1990s Japan, Asia: Supporting the Dollar and reckless lending fueled bubbles, which burst with tightened monetary policy, banking crisis 2000s Contagion + record U.S. debt pose substantial global-systemic risk Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe – London, October 27, 2008 Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises Business and Financial Cycles Financial Crises and Energy Prices Post-Bretton-Woods Problems The Role of Recycled Petrodollars Coincidence of High Oil Prices with Financial Crises Crises Severest 1850s-70s (before gold standard), and 1970s– (after Bretton Woods) 120 100 80 60 Brent Oil Price in 2006 Dollars 40 20 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Mahmoud A. -
Oil Wars by Mamdouh G
International Association for Energy Economics | 17 Oil Wars By Mamdouh G. Salameh* The 20th century was truly the century of oil whilst the 21st century could be that of peak oil and the re- sulting oil wars. No other commodity has been so intimately intertwined with national strategies and global politics and power as oil. The close connection between oil and conflict derives from its vital importance to the economy and military power of nations, its irregular geographical distribution and peak oil. In the Cold War years, the battle for the control of oil resources between international oil companies and developing countries was a major incentive and inspiration behind the great drama of de-coloniza- tion and emergent nationalism. Yet oil has also proved that it can be a blessing for some and a curse for others. Since its discovery, it has bedevilled the Middle East and the world at large with conflicts and wars.1 However, with dwindling global oil reserves and fast-rising oil demand, the economics and geopoli- tics of oil suggest that there could be more oil wars in coming years. Oil Is a Leading Cause of War There is no doubt that oil is a leading cause of war. Oil fuels international conflict through four distinct mechanisms: (1) resource wars, in which states try to acquire oil reserves by force; (2) the ex- ternalization of civil wars in oil-producing states (Libya, for an example); (3) conflicts triggered by the prospect of oil-market domination, such as the United States' war with Iraq over Kuwait in 1991; and (4) clashes over control of oil transit routes such as shipping lanes and pipelines (closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for example). -
GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar Forthcoming in New Political Economy
Title: GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar Forthcoming in New Political Economy Author: Bessma Momani- Assistant Professor University of Waterloo and Senior Fellow, Centre for International Governance and Innovation Bio: Dr. Bessma Momani is Assistant Professor at the University of Waterloo and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance and Innovation. Dr. Momani has written on the US Middle East Free Trade Area, Euro-Med initiative, economic integration of the GCC, EU-GCC free trade agreement, economic liberalization in Egypt, and extensively on the International Monetary Fund. In addition to three monographs, her articles have appeared in World Economics, International Journal, Review of International Political Economy, Review of International Organizations, World Economy, Global Society, Middle East Review of International Affairs, New Political Economy, Canadian Journal of Political Science, and Asian Affairs. Abstract: Since the early 1970s, the oil-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) led by Saudi Arabia, have played a key role in supporting the value of the US dollar by invoicing oil trade oil in dollars and by investing in US dollar reserves and securities. However, the United States‟ negative fiscal and current account positions have made many nervous about the sustainability of the US dollar as an international reserve currency. This article asks whether the GCC oil exporters will undermine the future of the dollar. Three factors are considered: the GCC‟s influence in changing the dollar-based invoicing of oil; emerging patterns in petrodollar recycling; and, the potential for diversification of GCC official reserves. The findings of this article suggest that despite some economic rationales in favour of loosening ties to the dollar, in the short term at least, the GCC will remain loyal to the dollar for political and security reasons. -
Suspected Imperialist Plots and the Chaco War Roniger, Luis; Senkman, Leonardo
www.ssoar.info Fuel for Conspiracy: Suspected Imperialist Plots and the Chaco War Roniger, Luis; Senkman, Leonardo Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Zeitschriftenartikel / journal article Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Roniger, L., & Senkman, L. (2019). Fuel for Conspiracy: Suspected Imperialist Plots and the Chaco War. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 11(1), 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X19843008 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer CC BY-NC Lizenz (Namensnennung- This document is made available under a CC BY-NC Licence Nicht-kommerziell) zur Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu (Attribution-NonCommercial). For more Information see: den CC-Lizenzen finden Sie hier: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.de Journal of Politics in j Latin America Research Article Journal of Politics in Latin America 2019, Vol. 11(1) 3–22 Fuel for Conspiracy: ª The Author(s) 2019 Article reuse guidelines: Suspected Imperialist sagepub.com/journals-permissions DOI: 10.1177/1866802X19843008 Plots and the Chaco War journals.sagepub.com/home/pla Luis Roniger1 and Leonardo Senkman2 Abstract Conspiracy discourse interprets the world as the object of sinister machinations, rife with opaque plots and covert actors. With this frame, the war between Bolivia and Paraguay over the Northern Chaco region (1932–1935) emerges as a paradigmatic conflict that many in the Americas interpreted as resulting from the conspiracy man- oeuvres of foreign oil interests to grab land supposedly rich in oil. At the heart of such interpretation, projected by those critical of the fratricidal war, were partial and extrapolated facts, which sidelined the weight of long-term disputes between these South American countries traumatised by previous international wars resulting in humiliating defeats and territorial losses, and thus prone to welcome warfare to bolster national pride and overcome the memory of past debacles. -
Stains of Empire: Accumulation by Contamination in the Gulf by Michael Hennessy Picard & Tina Beigi
Stains of Empire: accumulation by contamination in the Gulf By Michael Hennessy Picard & Tina Beigi Abstract Since the discovery of oil in the Gulf, the military-industrial complex has expanded the scale and scope of capital accumulation. We argue in this paper that the corollary to capital accumulation is contamination of human ecology, cannibalizing the daily life of many people having to live in the rubble of war and the spills of oil. Over the course of a century, surveillance from above and extraction down below fueled successive rounds of oil wars. Militarized for the purpose of extraction, the oil states of the Gulf have become wastelands littered by chemically contaminated waters, and massive oil spills. The history of war-making and oil drilling of postcolonial Iraq constitutes our case study. Inspired by Ecological Marxism, the concept of accumulation by contamination provides a critical framework to show how Energy Imperialism contributes to the asymmetric distribution of energy and toxic waste between corporate bodies and social metabolisms in the Middle East. La découverte du pétrole au Moyen-Orient a contribué à l’éclosion et à l’enrichissement massif du complexe militaro-industriel. Le corollaire de cette accumulation de capital est la contamination de la région, cannibalisant la vie quotidienne de populations entières vivant parmi les décombres de la guerre et les déversements d’hydrocarbure. Militarisés à des fins d’extraction, les territoires des États pétroliers du Golfe sont irrémédiablement contaminés par un double héritage : la pollution militaire d’une part, et la pollution pétrolière de l’autre. Le cas emblématique de l’Iraq postcolonial illustre ce double héritage. -
Oil and the Iraq War: How the United States Could Have Expected to Benefit, and Might Still
Georgia State University ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University Political Science Faculty Publications Department of Political Science 2005 “Oil and the Iraq War: How the United States Could Have Expected to Benefit, and Might Still John S. Duffield Georgia State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/political_science_facpub Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Duffield, John S. “Oil and the aqIr War: How the United States Could Have Expected to Benefit, and Might Still,” Middle East Review of International Affairs 9, no. 2 (June 2005): 109-41. http://www.rubincenter.org/ 2005/06/duffield-2005-06-07/. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Political Science at ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. OIL AND THE IRAQ WAR: HOW THE UNITED STATES COULD HAVE EXPECTED TO BENEFIT, AND MIGHT STILL By John S. Duffield The Bush Administration has offered a variety of justifications for its decision to go to war against Iraq. Initially, it emphasized the threat to U.S. national security posed by Iraq’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction and ties to international terrorists. More recently, it has stressed the need to promote democracy in the Middle East. Along the way, it has also highlighted Saddam Hussein’s despotic rule and human rights abuses. Conspicuously absent from these justifications has been any discussion of the possible oil-related benefits. -
Angola, Nigeria and Sudan
Journal of Peace, Conflict and Development www.peacestudiesjournal.org.uk Issue 16, November 2010 Petroleum and its Impact on Three Wars in Africa: Angola, Nigeria and Sudan Adrian Gonzalez* Abstract This article focuses on the complex role that oil has played in many conflicts on the African continent. It begins by highlighting oil’s influential role within war at a wider international level and provides a brief theoretical base from which to explore oil’s role in the African continent. Then, the article provides evidence of petroleum’s impact on violent conflicts in three African countries, namely Angola, Sudan and Nigeria, in order to highlight oil’s multi-faceted role on war in Africa. Keywords: Petroleum, Angola, Nigeria, Sudan. Introduction: oil’s war facets Oil and gas supplies are becoming scarcer and more expensive. The hunt for the world’s remaining resources is creating new alliances and the danger of fresh conflicts. China is moving aggressively to satiate its growing appetite for energy, potentially setting up conflict with the United States over the dwindling resources of the Middle East and Africa.1 For many within the academic world, oil has created a fluid, dark foundation upon which many of the world‟s wars, conflicts, and grievances have been based. This, coupled with a geo-strategic energy concern from the world‟s leading powers to safeguard and access oil, has led to this resource being at the heart of much of the instability in countries and regions across the globe. For oil remains an integral part of any country and its ability to * Adrian Gonzalez has completed a BA (Hons) in history and is awaiting confirmation of an MA in War Studies at King‟s College, London. -
View and Download the End of the Present Here
THE END OF THE PRESENT T This publication draws together critical H reflection, speculative fiction, and collective E research to consider the ‘long crises’ of capitalism and the environment. It explores E the different forms of time in which N financial and environmental crises are D located, and how we as humans experience these massive events. O F Curator and artist Angela Chan and artist, writer and lecturer Emily Rosamond present T their own takes on time and crises, each H in response to the question ‘when does a E crisis begin and end?’ Emily Rosamond’s essay, Swarm Signals, connects astrophysics P to financial markets to question causality R and influence. Angela Chan’s short story, E Blurred Events, takes us to a near future in S which pandemic time blurs world politics. E N Jumping off from The End of the Present, T an online residency with Arts Catalyst, our quasi factual writing runs throughout this publication. Each narrative develops research undertaken by participants in public online co-research workshops where we collectively mapped events across recent and deep timescales. Our texts are a time(un)line of connections, which attempt to unravel cause and effect, and undo linear readings of history. Ruth Beale & Amy Feneck, The Alternative School of Economics 2 T H E E N D O F T H E P R E TIME(UN)LINE S E N The Alternative School T of Economics 3 T PINK ICE H E The Antarctic Treaty System, the post- colonial promise to ‘continue forever to E be used exclusively for peaceful purposes’ A N ends in 2048. -
Before the 'Locomotive' Runs: the Impact of the – Oil Shock on Japan and the International Financi
Financial History Review . (), pp. –. © The Author(s), . Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of European Association for Banking and Financial History. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/./), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. doi:./S Before the ‘locomotive’ runs: the impact of the – oil shock on Japan and the international financial system KAZUHIKO YAGO Waseda University This article offers a Japanese perspective on the debate about the international financial system immedi- ately after the first oil shock of –. Using archival records from the OECD and Bank of Japan, I analyze the three key policy issues discussed at the meetings of Working Party (WP) of the OECD: petrodollar recycling, balance-of-payments adjustments, and the management of global growth. Documents show that the Japanese approach to capital controls, exchange rate management, state-led growth orientation and international banking strategies was rather strengthened by the impact of the oil shock. By the OECD viewed Japan, together with Germany and the United States, as one of the ‘locomotives’ that would trigger a revival of economic growth in the industrialized West. Keywords: petrodollars, recycling, balance-of-payment adjustment, OECD, Japan JEL codes: F,F,N,N,N I The oil shock of the s is considered one of the most momentous events in the transformation of the world economy, along with the Nixon shock (Maier ). The fourfold increase in the oil price (from $. to $. per barrel between October and January ) caused by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shook the foundations of capitalist economies, which until then had enjoyed a plentiful supply of cheap oil under a fixed exchange rate regime. -
Origins and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks
Department of Economics and Finance – Chair of Money and Banking ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS SUPERVISOR Prof. Paolo Paesani CANDIDATE Riccardo Ambrogi Matr. 184651 ACADEMIC YEAR 2015 / 2016 Index Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Chapter 1: The Macroeconomic Reactions to Oil Price Shocks ................................................ 5 1. Oil prices over time .................................................................................................................... 5 2. Oil Shocks Propagation Channels ............................................................................................ 8 2.1 Oil Price Shocks and Recession ............................................................................................. 9 2.1.1 Effects of an Oil Price Decrease on Output Growth .................................................... 12 2.2 Oil Price Shock and Inflation ............................................................................................... 13 2.3 Modelling the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Shocks ............................................ 14 2.3.1 First Round Effects........................................................................................................ 15 2.3.2 Second Round Effects .................................................................................................... 16 3. Different Effects of Oil Price Shocks Over time ................................................................... -
Nigeria's Niger Delta
Africa Development, Vol. XXXIV, No. 2, 2009, pp. 103–128 © Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, 2009 (ISSN 0850-3907) Nigeria’s Niger Delta: Understanding the Complex Drivers of Violent Oil-related Conflict Cyril Obi* Abstract This paper explores the complex roots and dimensions of the Niger Delta conflict which has escalated from ethnic minority protests against the federal Nigerian State-Oil Multinationals’ alliance in the 1990’s to the current insurgency that has attracted worldwide attention. It also raises some conceptual issues drawn from ‘snapshots’ taken from various perspectives in grappling with the complex roots of the oil- related conflict in the paradoxically oil-rich but impoverished region as an important step in a nuanced reading of the local, national and international ramifications of the conflict and its implications for Nigeria’s development. The conflict is then located both in the struggle of ethnic minority groups for local autonomy and the control of their natural resources (including oil), and the contradictions spawned by the transnational production of oil in the region. The transition from resistance – as-protest – to insurgency, as represented by attacks on state and oil company targets by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), is also critically analyzed. Résumé Cet article explore les racines et les dimensions complexes du conflit dans le delta du Niger qui a évolué à partir des protestations de la minorité ethnique contre l’alliance entre l’État fédéral nigérian et des multinationales pétrolières dans les années 1990, pour aboutir à l’actuelle insurrection qui a attiré l’attention du monde entier. -
Use of Propaganda in Civil War: the Biafra Experience. 1
USE OF PROPAGANDA IN CIVIL WAR: THE BIAFRA EXPERIENCE. PATRICK EDIOMI DAVIES A Thesis in the Department of International Relations The London School of Economics and Political Science Submitted to the University of London for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) June 1995 1 UMI Number: U105277 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U105277 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 IH eS£ F 71 L\~L\-lo DC hOOrUftH- USE OF PROPAGANDA IN CIVIL WAR: THE BIAFRA EXPERIENCE. ABSTRACT This study examines the effect of propaganda in the Biaffan war. Nigeria, the show case of British colonial rule and Empire, and transfer to independence, was at the point of disintegration in 1967. A section of the country, the Eastern region had dared to do the unthinkable at that time, to secede. The British and Nigerian governments were determined that it would not happen. The break away region, which called itself Biafra was blockaded by land, air and sea, and starved of weapons and the means of livelihood.