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Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises the Argument for Cycle Attenuation
Business and Financial Cycles Post-Bretton-Woods Problems Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises The Argument for Cycle Attenuation Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe Rice University & Baker Institute for Public Policy October 2008 Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe – London, October 27, 2008 Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises Business and Financial Cycles Financial Crises and Energy Prices Post-Bretton-Woods Problems The Role of Recycled Petrodollars Frequency and Causes of Crises Globalizations Past and Present Reckless Lending Era 1850s–1870s: Major currency and banking crises Gold Standard Era 1880–1913: Some currency and banking crises Between Wars 1919–1939: Numerous currency and banking crises Bretton Woods 1945–1971: Many currency crises but no banking crises Dollar Era 1973–present: Numerous currency & many banking crises Trade surpluses, Reckless Lending, and Recent Crises 1980–present: 1980s Scandinavia & Latin America: Reckless lending fueled bubbles that collapsed with oil prices, leading to currency and banking crises 1990s Japan, Asia: Supporting the Dollar and reckless lending fueled bubbles, which burst with tightened monetary policy, banking crisis 2000s Contagion + record U.S. debt pose substantial global-systemic risk Mahmoud A. El-Gamal & Amy M. JaVe – London, October 27, 2008 Energy Prices, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises Business and Financial Cycles Financial Crises and Energy Prices Post-Bretton-Woods Problems The Role of Recycled Petrodollars Coincidence of High Oil Prices with Financial Crises Crises Severest 1850s-70s (before gold standard), and 1970s– (after Bretton Woods) 120 100 80 60 Brent Oil Price in 2006 Dollars 40 20 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Mahmoud A. -
GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar Forthcoming in New Political Economy
Title: GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar Forthcoming in New Political Economy Author: Bessma Momani- Assistant Professor University of Waterloo and Senior Fellow, Centre for International Governance and Innovation Bio: Dr. Bessma Momani is Assistant Professor at the University of Waterloo and a Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance and Innovation. Dr. Momani has written on the US Middle East Free Trade Area, Euro-Med initiative, economic integration of the GCC, EU-GCC free trade agreement, economic liberalization in Egypt, and extensively on the International Monetary Fund. In addition to three monographs, her articles have appeared in World Economics, International Journal, Review of International Political Economy, Review of International Organizations, World Economy, Global Society, Middle East Review of International Affairs, New Political Economy, Canadian Journal of Political Science, and Asian Affairs. Abstract: Since the early 1970s, the oil-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) led by Saudi Arabia, have played a key role in supporting the value of the US dollar by invoicing oil trade oil in dollars and by investing in US dollar reserves and securities. However, the United States‟ negative fiscal and current account positions have made many nervous about the sustainability of the US dollar as an international reserve currency. This article asks whether the GCC oil exporters will undermine the future of the dollar. Three factors are considered: the GCC‟s influence in changing the dollar-based invoicing of oil; emerging patterns in petrodollar recycling; and, the potential for diversification of GCC official reserves. The findings of this article suggest that despite some economic rationales in favour of loosening ties to the dollar, in the short term at least, the GCC will remain loyal to the dollar for political and security reasons. -
Members' Directory 2019-2020
Directory Sponsor MEMBERS’ DIRECTORY RenewableUK 2019-2020 Members’ Directory 2019-2020 Members’ Directory Micro Grid Renewables Generation Solar Electricity Trading Transmission Distribution Demand-Side Centralised Power Response Generation Smart Storage Cities Wind Smart Homes User Demand EVs 25 EUR million Sales in more than Established 6 manufacturing State of the art average annual investments facilities (last 3 years) 50 countries 1950 plants in 3 countries Who we are Tracing its industrial roots back to 1950, Cablel® Hellenic Cables has evolved into a leading European provider of reliable and competitive cable solutions. With 6 manufacturing plants across 3 countries, Cablel® Hellenic Cables covers a wide range of cable products and solutions, from Land and Submarine Power cables to Fiber Optics, Telecommunication cables and Magnet Wires. Cablel® Hellenic Cables offers a wide range of integrated solutions, including design, manufacturing, planning, project management and installation. In-house R&D and testing facilities guarantee continuous product development and innovation. As the world’s need for sustainable and reliable flow of energy and information continues to increase, we remain focused on our mission to provide top-quality products and services meeting the highest technical and sustainability standards set by our customers. HEAD OFFICE: 33, Amaroussiou - Halandriou Str., 151 25 Maroussi, Athens, GREECE Tel.: +30 210 6787 416, +30 210 6787 900, Fax: +30 210 6787 406 [email protected] www.cablel.com 09-13-2019_KX_CABLEL_168x240mm_FINAL.indd -
Information&Analysis Journal
информационно-аналитический журнал information&analysis journal №3 (021), Сентябрь/September 2007 ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЬ РЕДАКЦИОННОГО СОВЕТА PRESIDENT OF EDITORIAL BOARD А.Б. ЯНОВСКИЙ, д.э.н., профессор, руководитель A.B. YANOVSKY, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Департамента ТЭК Минпромэнерго России of Fuel-Energy Complex Department of the Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Russian Federation ЗАМЕСТИТЕЛЬ ПРЕДСЕДАТЕЛЯ РЕДАКЦИОННОГО СОВЕТА VICE-PRESIDENT OF EDITORIAL BOARD Л.М. ГРУЗДИЛОВИЧ, председатель Ученого совета L.M. GRUZDILOVICH, Chairman of the Academic Council Некоммерческого Партнерства of Nonprofit Partnership “Coiled Tubing Technologies «Центр развития колтюбинговых технологий» Development Center“ РЕДАКЦИОННЫЙ СОВЕТ EDITORIAL BOARD Б.Г. ВЫДРИК, начальник отдела внутреннего R. CLARKE, Editor-in-Chief потребления и экспорта ТЭК M.G. GEIKHMAN, Doctor, Deputy Chief of the Department Департамента ТЭP Минпромэнерго России of Gas, Gas-Condensate (Oil) Production, JSC Gazprom Д.Н. ГРИБАНОВСКИЙ, заместитель Генерального D.N. GRIBANOVSKY, Deputy Director Generale директора «NOV Фидмаш» of NOV-FIDMASH В.С. Войтенко, д.т.н., профессор, академик РАЕН A.N. KHAMIDULLIN, Director of «Coiled Tubing Service» LLC М.Г. ГеЙХМАН, к.т.н., заместитель начальника I.M. KRIVIKHIN, Chief Engineer of Surgut UPNP&KRS, Управления по добыче газа и газоконденсата (нефти) JSC Surgutneftegaz ОАО «Газпром» E.B. LAPOTENTOVA, Director Generale of NOV-FIDMASH Г.П. ЗОЗУЛЯ, д.т.н., профессор, зав. кафедрой «Ремонт и восстановление скважин» ТГНГУ A.G. MOLCHANOV, Doctor of Engineering, Professor, Correspondence Member of the Russian Engineering Р. КЛАРК, главный редактор журнала Academy, Head of Department for Technical Mechanics of И.М. КРИВИХИН, главный инженер Сургутского УПНП the RGU named after I.M. Gubkin и КРС ОАО «Сургутнефтегаз» I.Y. -
Before the 'Locomotive' Runs: the Impact of the – Oil Shock on Japan and the International Financi
Financial History Review . (), pp. –. © The Author(s), . Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of European Association for Banking and Financial History. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/./), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. doi:./S Before the ‘locomotive’ runs: the impact of the – oil shock on Japan and the international financial system KAZUHIKO YAGO Waseda University This article offers a Japanese perspective on the debate about the international financial system immedi- ately after the first oil shock of –. Using archival records from the OECD and Bank of Japan, I analyze the three key policy issues discussed at the meetings of Working Party (WP) of the OECD: petrodollar recycling, balance-of-payments adjustments, and the management of global growth. Documents show that the Japanese approach to capital controls, exchange rate management, state-led growth orientation and international banking strategies was rather strengthened by the impact of the oil shock. By the OECD viewed Japan, together with Germany and the United States, as one of the ‘locomotives’ that would trigger a revival of economic growth in the industrialized West. Keywords: petrodollars, recycling, balance-of-payment adjustment, OECD, Japan JEL codes: F,F,N,N,N I The oil shock of the s is considered one of the most momentous events in the transformation of the world economy, along with the Nixon shock (Maier ). The fourfold increase in the oil price (from $. to $. per barrel between October and January ) caused by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shook the foundations of capitalist economies, which until then had enjoyed a plentiful supply of cheap oil under a fixed exchange rate regime. -
Origins and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks
Department of Economics and Finance – Chair of Money and Banking ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS SUPERVISOR Prof. Paolo Paesani CANDIDATE Riccardo Ambrogi Matr. 184651 ACADEMIC YEAR 2015 / 2016 Index Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Chapter 1: The Macroeconomic Reactions to Oil Price Shocks ................................................ 5 1. Oil prices over time .................................................................................................................... 5 2. Oil Shocks Propagation Channels ............................................................................................ 8 2.1 Oil Price Shocks and Recession ............................................................................................. 9 2.1.1 Effects of an Oil Price Decrease on Output Growth .................................................... 12 2.2 Oil Price Shock and Inflation ............................................................................................... 13 2.3 Modelling the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Price Shocks ............................................ 14 2.3.1 First Round Effects........................................................................................................ 15 2.3.2 Second Round Effects .................................................................................................... 16 3. Different Effects of Oil Price Shocks Over time ................................................................... -
C:\Documents and Settings\TJH...V
! " #$%& $& "''WvrDCr r (! )* +* & +* & # , * -./ 0 & 12,33 /23 Qr qyyh Xh sh rhq8yyhrsVT9yyh Dr vhyv vur! 8r N "The term 'petrodollar' is a macroeconomic term that is little understood and even less discussed in the major news media today. Exactly how a petrodollar exchange system has helped maintain the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is a general theme in my book and will be the focus of this special report. As William Clark suggests in his book Petrodollar Warfare, the current 'war on terror' has been exploited by the neocons in an effort to establish permanent US military bases in the Persian Gulf and also 'dissuade' other nations from switching their crude oil contracts into an emerging euro currency. In what is now being called the first oil currency war of the 21st century, the Iraqi War in 2003 was more about protecting US dollar imperialism and preventing a 'petroeuro exchange system' than the alleged threat of WMDs or terrorist links to Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network. As William Clark is careful to point out, Saddam Hussein had begun to price Iraqi oil contracts in euros starting in November 2000 and the US government was determined to put a stop to this crude/euro currency peg, which they successfully did in the summer of 2003. As Clark mentions:" Not surprisingly, the US corporate media has not run a single news story on the reconversion of Iraq’s oil exports from petroeuros to petrodollars….This hidden fact [has] helped illuminate one of the crucial, yet over-looked macroeconomic rationales for the 2003 Iraqi War. -
UNIVERISITY of CALIFORNIA, IRVINE the Petrodollar Era And
UNIVERISITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE The Petrodollar Era and Relations between the United States and the Middle East and North Africa, 1969-1980 DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in History by David M. Wight Dissertation Committee: Professor Emily S. Rosenberg, chair Professor Mark LeVine Associate Professor Salim Yaqub 2014 © 2014 David M. Wight DEDICATION To Michelle ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES iv LIST OF TABLES v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vi CURRICULUM VITAE vii ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION x INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 1: The Road to the Oil Shock 14 CHAPTER 2: Structuring Petrodollar Flows 78 CHAPTER 3: Visions of Petrodollar Promise and Peril 127 CHAPTER 4: The Triangle to the Nile 189 CHAPTER 5: The Carter Administration and the Petrodollar-Arms Complex 231 CONCLUSION 277 BIBLIOGRAPHY 287 iii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1 Sectors of the MENA as Percentage of World GNI, 1970-1977 19 Figure 1.2 Selected Countries as Percentage of World GNI, 1970-1977 20 Figure 1.3 Current Account Balances of the Non-Communist World, 1970-1977 22 Figure 1.4 Value of US Exports to the MENA, 1946-1977 24 Figure 5.1 US Military Sales Agreements per Fiscal Year, 1970-1980 255 iv LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1 Net Change in Deployment of OPEC’s Capital Surplus, 1974-1976 120 Table 5.1 US Military Sales Agreements per Fiscal Year, 1970-1980 256 v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It is a cliché that one accumulates countless debts while writing a monograph, but in researching and writing this dissertation I have come to learn the depth of the truth of this statement. -
Of the PTB...The Effects of the Impending Iranian Oil Bourse... Posted by Prof
The Oil Drum | Continuing on thhet tph:e/m/wew owf .tthhee omilidnrdusmet.(cso)m o/fc tlahses PicT/B2.0.0.t5h/e0 8e/ffceocnttsi nouf inthge- oInm-ptheenmdien-go fI-rmaniniadns eOtsil- Bofo.uhrtmsel... Continuing on the theme of the mindset(s) of the PTB...the effects of the Impending Iranian Oil Bourse... Posted by Prof. Goose on August 9, 2005 - 4:46am Well, first it was Dave C's piece on Iraq, then yesterday's link to Big Gav's piece about Iraq...and now we turn to Iran and petrocurrency. A n interesting piece by William Clark posted today at both Energy Bulletin and Flying Talkin' Donkey (NB: Fo4 has yet another neat news interface, and this is my favorite so far, actually. Go check it out.). Here's a quote from the Clark piece, which is very provocative and provides reasoning for the Iran/Iraq petroeuro/dollar connection: It is now obvious the invasion of Iraq had less to do with any threat from Saddam's long- gone WMD program and certainly less to do to do with fighting International terrorism than it has to do with gaining strategic control over Iraq's hydrocarbon reserves and in doing so maintain the U.S. dollar as the monopoly currency for the critical international oil market. Throughout 2004 information provided by former administration insiders revealed the Bush/Cheney administration entered into office with the intention of toppling Saddam Hussein. Contemporary warfare has traditionally involved underlying conflicts regarding economics and resources. Today these intertwined conflicts also involve international currencies, and thus increased complexity. -
Petrodollar Or Petroeuro? a New Source of Global Conflict Cóilín Nunan
FEASTA_Review_MAIN 10/18/04 11:55 AM Page 125 Petrodollar or Petroeuro? A new source of global conflict Cóilín Nunan The current political and economic rift between the US and the European Union has been called a clash of civilizations. Its major cause is a struggle over the gains to be had from producing the world’s leading currency Cóilín Nunan studied mathematics at the universities of Brussels, Cambridge and Oxford. He now lives in Scotland and works for the Soil Association, the UK organic farming charity. His work focuses on the use and abuse of antibiotics in intensive farming and he has co-authored several reports examining the many ways in which this can impact upon human health. He is a Trustee of Feasta and editor of its website. o observer of the lead-up to the war in Iraq international trade and to build up their currency and its aftermath could have failed to reserves. The US provides the world with these Nnotice that the level of cooperation dollars by buying goods and services produced by between Europe and America was extremely low. foreign countries, but since it does not have a France and Germany were very strong opponents corresponding need for foreign currency, it sells far of the US/UK invasion and even after the war was fewer goods and services in return, i.e. the US declared over, disagreements persisted over the always spends more than it earns, whereas the rest lifting of sanctions and how Iraq should be run. So of the world always earns more than it spends. -
Statoil-Kiwi Well-Environment Impact Assessment
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Offshore Exploratory Drilling Well Kiwi A-1X, El Dabaa Offshore Concession, Egypt 455/EJ6172 – 000-EN-REP-06 16 December 2010 Infrastructure & Environment 21, Misr Helwan Agriculture Road Maadi Cairo Egypt Telephone: + 202 2359 1487/1576/3819/5628 Facsimile: + 202 2359 1038 www.worleyparsons.com © Copyright 2010 WorleyParsons Disclaimer This report has been prepared on behalf of and for the exclusive use of Statoil, and is subject to and issued in accordance with the agreement between Statoil and WorleyParsons Engineers Egypt Ltd. WorleyParsons Engineers Egypt Ltd accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for it in respect of any use of or reliance upon this report by any third party. Copying this report without the permission of Statoil or WorleyParsons Engineers Egypt Ltd is not permitted. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT (EIA) OFFSHORE EXPLORATORY DRILLING WELL KIWI A-1X, EL DABAA OFFSHORE CONCESSION, EGYPT 0NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY WorleyParsons Engineers Egypt Ltd (WPEEL) has conducted an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study for Statoil’s proposed offshore exploratory “Kiwi A-1X” well located in the Mediterranean Sea, El Dabaa Offshore Concession, Egypt (Figure 1). WorleyParsons has been also retained by Statoil to conduct an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) study for the same offshore exploratory drill well (455/EJ6172-000-EN-REP-07). This EIA report details the environmental impact assessment and summarizes the ERA study. Figure 1 Statoil Concession and Well Location Statoil contracted Petro Environmental Service Company (PESCo) to perform a surface modelling study of hypothetical oil spills to assess the potential impact of the surface release of oil in case of a blow out event from Kiwi A-1X well. -
The Petrodollars and the World Economy
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Lütkenhorst, Wilfried; Minte, Horst Article — Digitized Version The petrodollars and the world economy Intereconomics Suggested Citation: Lütkenhorst, Wilfried; Minte, Horst (1979) : The petrodollars and the world economy, Intereconomics, ISSN 0020-5346, Verlag Weltarchiv, Hamburg, Vol. 14, Iss. 2, pp. 84-89, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02930203 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/139600 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu RECYCLING The Petrodollars and the World Economy by Wilfried LStkenhorst, Horst Minte, Bochum * The quadrupling of the oil price by the OPEC in 1973 was a poignant event in the post-war develop- ment of the world economy.