Q4 | 2020 Oakland Submarkets Retail Overview
OAKLAND’S RETAIL John Cumbelich & Associates fourth quarter survey of the Oakland retail market MARKET SHOWS reflects a stabilizing retail market poised to start the recovery process of occupancy SIGNS OF REBOUND rate gains in 2021. Expanding dining brands paced the rebound in Q4.
OCCUPANCY LEVELS
GRAND LAKE ROCKRIDGE MONTCLAIR VILLAGE
20 20 20 2020 20 20 20 2020 20 20 20 2020 100 100 100
99 99 99
98 98 98
97 97 97
96 96 96
95 95 95
94 94 94
93 93 93
92 92 92 9 .48 99.53 98.2 98.08 99.85 99.00 99.03 98.03 99.40 99.93 9 .35 9 .20 9 .20 93.3 91.22 9 0 9 .35 98. 8 98.23 9 .43 9 .43 9 .50 98.50 98.50 98.50 96.00 96.00 98.10 98.10 92.90 94.56 9 3 98.35 9 .92 98.80 98.39 98.00 96.20 98.30 98.30 99.50 9 .80 9 .45 90.80 90.80 91.50 91.20 91 0
91 91 91
90 90 90 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q4: SIGNS OF RETAIL RECOVERY SEEN IN OAKLAND
The Oakland retail market saw signs of a stabilizing retail market in Q4, as occupancy rates ticked up after a rocky 2020. Both the Grand Lake and Rockridge submarkets saw net positive absorption after suffering through consistent drops in occupancy level throughout 2019 and 2020.
Importantly, the occupancy levels in all three of the submarkets studied are over 90%, and in the case of Grand Lake and Rockridge, 94.06% and 96.23% respectively. These are healthy occupancy levels by any standard.
The most glaring retail leasing issue facing the studied markets remains the former McCaulou’s Department store in Montclair Village. The subject space totals 17,186 SF and has limited parking and a lack of street frontage. The space does not lend itself to being demised into smaller suites, and may become a candidate to be repositioned into a non-retail use, given the challenging leasing fundamentals.
The resurgent retail leasing market has been led by independent restaurant and café concepts, representing the bulk of new retail leases throughout Oakland in Q4.
The spread of the COVID vaccine and the tapering off of flu season during Q1 will likely position the economy in general and Oakland retail in particular to continue to rebound.
Q4 | 2020 Oakland Submarkets Retail Overview OAKLAND’S RETAIL DISTRICTS
Oakland’s premier retail districts, Rockridge, Grand Lake and Montclair Village, have a comparable inventory of retail space, 825,000 SF, to Walnut Creek’s regional mall area. Yet these vibrant streets outperform Walnut Creek – with occupancy levels that are unsurpassed by any other Bay Area submarket. A powerful mixture of residential density, incomes and growing job creation have pushed Oakland’s retail inventory to record occupancy and rent levels. High barriers to entry have constrained the development of new retail inventory, helping to maintain both occupancy and rent levels.
Rockridge Size: 227,164 SF Occupancy: 96.23% Avg Rent: $36-$60 SF 24 13
Montclair Village Size: 297,292 SF Occupancy: 91.20% 580 Avg Rent: $36-$65 SF
Grande Lake Size: 321,894 SF Occupancy: 94.06% Avg Rent: $42-$60 SF
580
Rental rates are quoted
Q4 | 2020 Oakland Submarkets Retail Overview Oakland’s distinctive retail landscape is home to some of the Bay Area’s elite restaurants, shopping and entertainment venues. Urban in nature, but low-rise in scale, Oakland’s premier retail streets and shopping districts are the perfect cross be- tween San Francisco’s urban towers and the sprawling, suburban centers of the East Bay. Stimulated by an influx of new residents, tech firms and employment in the post-recession recovery, Oakland’s retail real estate market has achieved historic occupancy levels and record rental rates in recent years.
Oakland has a dynamic retail market built on a mixture of both national retailers and local artisanal businesses. Composed of multiple unique shopping & dining dis- tricts, Oakland offers a blend of existing centers and new developments that pro- vides consumers with a broad shopping experience.
NEIGHBORHOOD SUMMARY
■ Rental Rates Shake Shack opens at Uptown Station
■ States Coffee opens two Oakland locations 80
0 ■ Sunday Bake Shop signed a lease at 5901 College Ave 60 50 ■ The aptly named Tribune will open a brasserie in the Tribune Tower 40 ■ Boba Guys signed a lease at 5903 College Ave 30 20 ■ Namastey Patio secured the coveted former La Boulangerie on College Ave 0 ■ Monkey King featuring chicken wings, opens on Piedmont Ave Rockridge Grand Lake Grand Montclair Village Montclair
*Rental rates are quoted
Q4 | 2020 Oakland Submarkets Retail Overview RECENT TRANSACTION / BOBA GUYS & SUNDAY BAKESHOP
Boba Guys Sunday Bakeshop consummated a consummated a 1,050 SF, 10 year lease at 561 SF, 10 year lease at
5903 College Avenue 5901 College Avenue Oakland, CA Oakland, CA
For more information: For more information: Joe Kuvetakis | Tim Seiler Joe Kuvetakis | Tim Seiler
FEATURED LISTING / 1885 SOLANO AVENUE, BERKELEY, CA
1885 Solano Avenue – Berkeley, CA Solano Ave & The Alameda
LOCATED IN THE BUSIEST STRETCH OF THE SOLANO AVENUE RETAIL DISTRICT
A +/-1,172 square foot space that shares a building with Noah’s Bagels. Neighbors Peet’s Coffee, Starbucks, Zachary’s Pizza, Troy Greek Cuisine, Andronico’s, and many other local, regional and national favorites are all within a few blocks. There is heavy pedestrian and vehicle traffic all day, along with convenient street parking right in front.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
VIEW BROCHURE
ABOUT THE FIRM
John Cumbelich & Associates is a San Francisco Bay Area firm that John Cumbelich Tim Seiler Joe Kuvetakis Chief Executive Officer Partner Associate Broker provides commercial real estate services to Fortune 500 retailers and [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] select owners and developers of retail commercial properties. The CA DRE ID 01006249 CA DRE ID 0107626 CA DRE ID 01854159 firm’s expertise is in developing store networks for retailers seeking to penetrate the Northern California marketplace, and the representation Trust. of premier power center and lifestyle developments. Experience.
1330 North Broadway, Suite 200A Walnut Creek, CA 94596 TEL 925.935.5400 www.cumbelich.com
Q4 | 2020 Oakland Submarkets Retail Overview