ADVANCES ON THE FINAL FRONTIER
DISRUPTIONS AND NEW DIRECTIONS IN U.S. SPACE POLICY LYNNE PLATT, 1/15/2021 OUTLINE
vSpace 2020-2021
vCivil, Commercial and Military Space Sectors
vPolitical Imperatives, Big Space and Disruptive Influences
vNew Space and the Billionaires
vAdvances on the Final Frontier OUTLINE
üSpace 2020-2021
vCivil, Commercial and Military Space Sectors
vPolitical Imperatives, Big Space and Disruptive Influences
vNew Space and the Billionaires
vAdvances on the Final Frontier KEY SPACE EVENTS 2020: LAUNCH OF ESA SOLAR ORBITER
February 10 European Space Agency (ESA) in partnership with NASA
Solar Orbiter launched from Kennedy Space Center, FL KEY SPACE EVENTS 2020: 3 MARS MISSIONS LAUNCHED
• July 19 UAE’s first Mars mission, Al-Amal (Hope) Probe arrives 2/2021, spends Martian year (687 days) orbiting, collecting data • July 23 China’s Mars orbiter, lander, rover – Tianwen-1 (Questions to Heaven) mission. Arrives 2/2021, lands 4/2021 on same plain as NASA’s 1975 Viking-2 • July 30 NASA’s Mars Perseverance rover mission – lands 2/18/21 KEY SPACE EVENTS 2020: NASA’S OSIRIS-REX ON BENNU
October 20 Asteroid Bennu NASA’s Touch-and-Go (2 oz. soil/surface material) 7-year mission, 2016-2023 INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION – 20TH ANNIVERSARY INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION – 20TH ANNIVERSARY
• 4 craft delivered cargo: RUS Progress, JAXA HTV, SpaceX Cargo Dragon, Northrup Grumman Cygnus • 91 minutes to orbit Earth, 254 miles away • Spacecraft can dock as soon as 4 hours after launch • An acre of solar panels • 55-ft robotic Canadarm-2 • Bolted together over 42 flights OUTLINE
vSpace 2020-2021
üCivil, Commercial and Military Space Sectors
vPolitical Imperatives, Big Space and Disruptive Influences
vNew Space and the Billionaires
vAdvances on the Final Frontier 3 SPACE SECTORS [from National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958)
1. Civil – observe, understand, model Earth system; how it’s changing, causes of change, consequences for human civilization. [NASA, NOAA, FAA, DOE]
2. Commercial – private capital at risk, goods and services to consumers/not just gov’t, Public-Private Partnerships. [Satellite TV/radio, commercial comms satellites, Planet, Blue Origin, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic] 3 SPACE SECTORS
[from National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958)
3. Military –”desired condition” a secure, stable, accessible space domain. Deter aggression, protect U.S. national interests including military power, security and economic prosperity, ability to fight and win future conflicts. [DOD, national security agencies] MILITARY U.S. SPACE FORCE – ESTABLISHED DECEMBER 2019
1st new independent military branch since 1947
About 14K total staffing (smallest service) MILITARY – CHIEF OF SPACE OPERATIONS GENERAL JOHN “JAY” RAYMOND
ØDigital service prepared for “tectonic shift in warfare” – premium on speed, technology and innovation ØSpace capabilities will be a “joint enabler” across other security/defense missions ØSpace force doctrine for “why” and “how” of war fighting in space, challenges of greater distances, higher speeds MILITARY SPACE AND NATO
In 2019: • NATO added space as new (5th) operational domain • Adopted first over-arching space policy
In October 2020: • Announced plans for new NATO space command center at Ramstein Air Base, Germany • Ensure space support to NATO ops, info-sharing, coordination OUTLINE
vSpace 2020-2021
vCivil, Commercial, and Military Space Sectors
üPolitical Imperatives, Big Space and Disruptive Influences
vNew Space and the Billionaires
vAdvances on the Final Frontier POLITICAL IMPERATIVES – BIG SPACE – EARLY DAYS
• 1957 Sputnik/Muttnik “Moment” – Space Race and fears of superior technology in hands of Communists • Eisenhower -> NASA created 1958 • 1961 Gagarin, Titov in orbit (Shepard, Grissom sub-orbital flights) • 2/1962 Glenn, 5/1962 Carpenter in orbit • Kennedy -> 9/1962 “We chose to go to the moon in this decade…” Address at Rice University on the Nation’s Space Effort • Apollo 11 July 20, 1969 BIG SPACE – LARGEST U.S. AEROSPACE COMPANIES
ØBoeing Ø Lockheed Martin Ø Northrop Grumman Ø United Launch Alliance (launch services, co-owned Boeing & Lockheed Martin)
(SpacePolicyOnline.Com) POLITICAL IMPERATIVES – LATE 1980S TO 2021
• Role of government vs. private sector
• G.W. Bush, looking to retire space shuttles by 2011 -> decision to help commercial companies start cargo delivery service to ISS v2006 – Commercial Orbital Transport Services (COTS) Program
• “How Obama Brought Capitalism to Outer Space,” C. Davenport, Washington Post, 10/11/2016) – Obama ushers in new era of commercial space TRUMP NATIONAL SPACE COUNCIL POLICY DIRECTIVES
1. 12/11/17 Reinvigorating America’s Human Space Exploration Program 2. 5/24/18 Streamlining Regs on Commercial Use of Space 3. 6/18/18 National Space Traffic Management Policy 4. 2/19/19 Establishment of U.S. Space Force 5. 9/4/2020 Cybersecurity Principles for Space Systems 6. 12/16/2020 Nat Strategy for Space Nuclear Power & Propulsion POLITICAL IMPERATIVES – INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
ARTEMIS ACCORDS – signed 10/13/20 … space exploration cooperation among nations participating in NASA-led Artemis Program to send first woman and next man to the Moon. Int’l partners will play key role in getting sustainable, robust lunar presence this decade while preparing historic human mission to Mars.
Signators: Five Eyes sans NZ + Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, UAE BIG SPACE – DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCES – NEW COMPETITION
9/28/2008 -- After first successful launch on Falcon 1 rocket into orbit, Elon Musk thanked his team:
“ This really means a lot to SpaceX, getting to orbit. That’s just a huge milestone. There are only a few countries that have done it. It’s normally a country thing, not a company thing. It’s an amazing achievement.” (C. Davenport, THE SPACE BARONS, 2018) BIG SPACE – DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCES – CHANGING CONDITIONS • Digital economy growing
• Size of electronics shrinking
• Cost of access to space decreasing
• Access to private capital for innovation increasing SPACE 2020-2021: HOW WE GOT HERE EARLY DAYS ------à------>------PRESENT DAY POLITICAL (SOCIAL, ECONOMIC) IMPERATIVES
Civil BIG SPACE Mini, Lower $ Access to Digital Nano BIG Access to Capital Commercial Economy Elec- Space for Innov tronics SPACE NEW Military SPACE OUTLINE
vSpace 2020-2021
vCivil, Commercial and Military Space Sectors
vPolitical Imperatives, Big Space and Disruptive Influences
üNew Space and the Billionaires
vAdvances on the Final Frontier NEW SPACE/BILLIONAIRES – BRANSON – VIRGIN GALACTIC NEW SPACE/BILLIONAIRES – BEZOS – BLUE ORIGIN NEW SPACE/BILLIONAIRES – MUSK – SPACEX
April 15, 2010, Pres. Obama at Pad 40 with Elon Musk Viewed Falcon 9 Rocket (successful 1ST launch June 4, 2010)
[NASA photo]
Musk’s vision: “make humans an interplanetary species” by building a colony on Mars NEW SPACE/BILLIONAIRES – MUSK - SPACEX - 10/20 SPACE 2020: HOW WE GOT HERE EARLY DAYS ------à------>------PRESENT DAY POLITICAL (SOCIAL, ECONOMIC) IMPERATIVES
Civil BIG SPACE Mini, Lower $ Access to Digital Nano BIG Access to Capital Commercial Economy Elec- Space for Innov tronics SPACE NEW Military SPACE OUTLINE
vSpace 2020-2021
vCivil, Commercial and Military Space Sectors
vPolitical Imperatives, Big Space and Disruptive Influences
vNew Space and the Billionaires
ü Advances on the Final Frontier ADVANCES ON THE FINAL FRONTIER: DEMOCRATIZING SPACE
“We are at the Vanguard of a new industry determined to pioneer twenty-first century spacecraft, which will open space to everybody – and change the world for good.” (Sir Richard Branson) ADVANCES: WHAT’S SPACE DONE FOR YOU LATELY?
• GPS navigation systems – more refined • Silver ion technology water filtration systems • Durable wind turbines • Firefighters’ protective gear from fire-resistance polymers for space suits • Skiers: goggles filtering 95% of blue light • WEATHER FORECASTING MORE ACCURATE • Low power, high efficiency technology for image sensors for space missions now used in cellphone cameras ADVANCES ON THE FINAL FRONTIER: FLORIDA
NASA ACTIVITES IN FY 2019 FLORIDA ECONOMIC IMPACT $6B 34K NASA JOBS IN SUNSHINE STATE
AEROSPACE/AVIATION IN TOP 4 ECONOMIC SECTORS IN FL’S $1 TRILLION ECONOMY -$175B AEROSPACE/AVIATION -2 OF 10 ACTIVE U.S. SPACEPORTS IN FL -8/24 LICENSES PERMITTING PRIVATE ROCKET LAUNCHES AUTHORIZED FROM FL SITES ADVANCES ON THE FINAL FRONTIER: BIDEN SPACE POLICY
“INVESTING IN ENGINES OF JOB CREATION” P19-20: Democrats continue to support [NASA] … are committed to space exploration and discovery, continued U.S. presence in the ISS, a return to the Moon and going to Mars. Democrats support strengthening NASA and NOAA’s Earth Observation missions to better understand how climate change is impacting our home planet.
P 76: We will invest in technology and forces that meet the threats of the future – from cyber to space, and artificial intelligence to unmanned systems – and reinforce the alliances and partnerships that enhance our collective security. ADVANCES ON THE FINAL FRONTIER: BIDEN POLICY Expected Biden space policy directions [Business Insider, 11/10/20] 1. Reprioritize & seek funds for climate change research missions 2. Extend funding and lifespan of ISS 3. Delay next Moon landing from 2024 to 2028 4. More commercial activity, private sector involvement in space
U.S. Space Force remains [Los Angeles Times, 12/15/20]
Likely to see first woman NASA Administrator: Ellen Stofan – head of Transition Team for NASA Pam Melroy – Advisor to National Space Council, retired Astronaut, NASA shuttle commander, Air Force pilot EARTHRISE
Dec 24, 1968, Apollo 8 Commander Frank Borman, Jim Lovell, Bill Anders*
“We set out to explore the Moon and instead we would discover the Earth.”