Space Policies for the New Space Age: Competing on the Final Economic Frontier
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US Space Policies for the New Space Age: Competing on the Final Economic Frontier Bruce Cahan, J.D. and Dr. Mir Sadat based on Proceedings from State of the Space Industrial Base 2020 Sponsored by United States Space Force, Defense Innovation Unit, United States Air Force Research Laboratory Illustrations by James Vaughan 1 DOCUMENT REFERENCE INFORMATION Title: Space Policies for the New Space Age: Competing on the Final Economic Frontier Publication Date: January 6, 2021 (supersedes prior versions) Authors’ Contact Information: Bruce Cahan: [email protected] / [email protected] Mir H. Sadat: [email protected] Publisher’s Contact Information: NewSpace New Mexico 801 University Blvd SE - Suite 301 Albuquerque, NM 87106 USA (505) 235-5141 [email protected] © Copyright 2020 – 2021 Bruce Cahan and Mir Sadat. All rights reserved. Section Illustrations © Copyright 2020 James Vaughan, and used by permission herein. 2 FOREWORD FROM THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE The ability to maintain competitive advantage in the global space economy requires all of the tools available to government and industry in a free-market system. Government activities - whether as a first adopter, a predictable customer or a regulator - will remain important, but private sector innovations, both technical and non- technical are the primary drivers of competitive advantage in our properly ambitious pursuit of space exploration and space commerce. Like recent U.S. government policies, Bruce Cahan and Mir Sadat have recognized the even greater strategic dimensions of the new space race. While space has always been a key national security venue, the race is now shifted predominantly to an economic race with immensely important political and international consequences. The American ecosystem that is driving space exploration and space commerce must be encouraged and protected in a variety of ways: investment, advocacy, regulatory reform, and an improved, rigorous understanding of developments in the space economy. Further, beyond the natural roles of NASA, the Department of State, the Department of Defense, the Department of Transportation, and increasingly, the Department of Commerce, continuing emphasis should be placed on the roles that can be played by other U.S. economic, financial, and development organizations such as the Export-Import Bank, the Development Finance Corporation, Small Business Administration, and other entities from across the federal government. Financial and insurance innovations must occur at the same exponential rate as the technical and business model developments that drive the space industry. As important risk-shifting mechanisms for a very broad and diverse American entrepreneurial base, new tools will be required to support the infrastructure and other longer-term support activities identified in this chapter. Innovative ideas for creating a space bank, use of tax credits, space bonds, and even a space commodities exchange, among others, merit careful consideration for inclusion into the U.S. toolkit for creating and sustaining advantage. International space partnerships are an essential part of this strategic competition. While all countries are inspired by the idea and pursuit of space exploration, many are as a practical matter interested mostly in how to participate in the forthcoming trillion-dollar space economy from a workforce, industrial development, and economic growth perspective. Our long-standing space partnerships with Europe and Japan must now naturally begin to include a new slate of space partnerships with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The unique American advantage here, contrary to Chinese behavior, is genuine interest in helping with partner capacity and economic growth, and ensuring internationally accepted norms, rights, and values are upheld. The Artemis Accords, for example, reflect this collective interest in safe, responsible, and transparent exploration of the Moon. So does the growing international interest in private property rights in space. 3 The race for the 2060 space economy is on, and competition is not a detriment because it stimulates inventions and innovations that often benefit all of humanity. This is possible when it is fueled by adaptive U.S. government policies, strong private sector entrepreneurship, a strong finance and insurance ecosystem, an inspired and growing workforce, and effective partnerships. As the global partner of choice, the United States and its allies stand to prevail and maintain the lion’s share in the economy. However, this race is much less about market share than it is about the norms, values, and behaviors that will carry us into the heavens to explore the Moon and other planets, and will create breath-taking new capabilities to improve our lives back on Earth for all of humanity. We simply cannot fail in this race! KEVIN M. O’CONNELL Director, Office of Space Commerce U.S. Department of Commerce 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors thank participants of the Space Industrial Base (SIB) 2020 Conference and Workshops, occurring between May 4 - 7, 2020, and hosted by New Space New Mexico (NSNM) and sponsored by the United States Space Force (USSF), the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), and the United States Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). Over 120 space leaders from government, industry and academia who provided general observations, findings and recommendations during the main conference and associated working groups. Materials from the Conference are available online: https://newspacenm.org/state-of-space-agenda In particular, the authors want to recognize participants of the SIB 2020 Conference’s Space Policy and Finance Tools Working Group (WG) led by Mir Sadat, Pavneet Singh, and Katherine Koleski. The authors appreciate the insights shared by all WG participants (Appendix F) who may hold different views that those posited herein. The authors also thank Dr. Joel Mozer, Brigadier General Steven Butow, Colonel Eric Felt, and Dr. Tom Cooley for their insightful comments and inputs to earlier drafts of this Report. The authors especially thank Kevin O'Connell for contributing his Foreward to this Report. As first Director of the Department of Commerce’s Office of Space Commerce, his leadership set in motion bipartisan long-horizon thinking and support for policies that level the global playing field so American and allied space commerce can compete, play and thrive by a set of international norms, rules, and laws, even if other nations do not. Finally, the authors express their appreciation to New Space New Mexico and specifically Casey DeRaad and Scott Maethner for their invaluable support in the review and publication of this Report. While words can ably describe the future, visual narratives immerse the reader in it. After reading this Report, James Vaughan, a graphic illustrator of humanity’s space futures, generously offered his artwork to begin each section of the Report to visualize current achievements and inspire innovative minds and policymakers to realize their dreams of that future. More of James’ works is available at http://www.jamesvaughanphoto.com/. This Report tells a story about how to ensure American strategic leadership and influence in space into the future – decades into the future. The Report’s title was inspired by Gene Roddenberry’s Star Trek themes, many focusing on dignity and diversity as humans pursue environmental sustainability, economic competition and scientific explorations. As a World War II bomber pilot and civil aviator, Roddenberry foresaw economic and social progress for all as the ultimate pathway to address injustice and ensure peace. 5 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Bruce Cahan is a Lecturer at Stanford University’s Department of Management Science and Engineering, and is the CEO / Co-Founder of Urban Logic, Inc. Bio: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brucecahan/. Mir Sadat was recently Policy Director on the U.S. National Security Council in the Executive Office of the President at the White House, and he is a career government official in the Department of Defense. Bio: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fours/. CONFLICTS OF INTEREST STATEMENT Bruce Cahan is the designer and principal organizer of the Space Commodities Exchange described in Section 10. Otherwise, the authors have no conflicts of interest regarding the material contained in this Report. DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this Report reflect those of the authors, as informed by conversations with State of the Space Industrial Base 2020 Workshop attendees, and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of any Department or Agency of the US Government. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD FROM THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE .............................................. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................. 5 ABOUT THE AUTHORS ............................................................................................................... 6 CONFLICTS OF INTEREST STATEMENT .................................................................................. 6 DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................................ 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 10 Space is the New Economic Center of Gravity ..................................................................... 11 Space as an Economic