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Interim Opposition Leader Rona Ambrose has successfully changed the tone of Conservative Party messaging—“a sunnier way of communicating,” as Yaroslav Baran writes. iPolitics photo After the Fall: Lessons Learned and Renewing the Conservative Brand Yaroslav Baran

In the weeks since they were swept from government, t is a fact of history that the Liberal the federal Conservatives have already begun to formu- Party has governed Canada for I most of our country’s history since late a post-Harper identity based on an interim leader 1867. There has been much discussion who presents a stark contrast from Harper in both optics in recent years, however, reflecting on whether the Liberals’ “natural gov- and tone, and on an energetic opposition to the Trudeau erning party” status is obsolete, and Liberals in the brief end-of-year sitting in the House. whether the 21st century would reveal Veteran Conservative strategist Yaroslav Baran outlines new trends. how the party should expand on those fronts while also Indeed, it has been posited that the old paradigm of an Upper-Canada/Lower- absorbing the invaluable lessons of defeat. Canada “Laurentian Consensus” is an outdated model that does not reflect the emergence of strong new economies in the West and the dramatic reversal of

January/February 2016 30 fortune—and political clout—of the Just as the evidence started to support the theory old have-not provinces of Newfound- land and Labrador and Saskatchewan. of a structural political realignment on a level Moreover, it has been argued that a stronger than speculation or wishful thinking, the 2015 smarter political integration of new election came along and seemed to suddenly revert the Canadians would reveal that many federal political power structure to pre-Harper and pre- immigrant communities’ personal Conservative-merger norms. and collective values are in fact more in line with contemporary conserva- tism than with latter-Twentieth-Cen- tury liberalism. Former Conservative sceptre. Add to that a campaign team a renewed road to governance, they Leader Stephen Harper, in fact, made built more on personal fealty than can also be tragic lost opportunities it his legacy goal to entrench his par- merit, and you end up with a recipe if parties fail to sufficiently take stock ty as the new natural governing force for disaster. of circumstances and learn from mis- for this century. takes. So what does the Conservative Party need to do? Yet, just as the evidence started to sup- Somewhere along port the theory of a structural political the way, a The first important tenet is that there realignment on a level stronger than government that had been are no quick fixes in politics. The Lib- speculation or wishful thinking, the erals spent a long period in the wil- 2015 election came along and seemed elected on themes of derness, arguably longer than they to suddenly revert the federal politi- respect, anti-corruption, needed to because many in the party cal power structure to pre-Harper and transparency and ethics, thought the issues were limited to pre-Conservative-merger norms. A evolved into a caricature finding an ideal public spokesperson. majority Liberal government emerged Only after experimenting with sev- with a power base in Ontario and that started to repel many eral quick-fix leaders did the Liberal Quebec, a clean sweep of the Atlantic, of its former adherents—to Party realize it had significant struc- and a record win in B.C. The election say nothing of the tural problems that actually needed saw the Conservatives split the West- undecided or swing voters to be addressed: an outdated fund- ern urban vote with the Liberals and raising model generating anaemic the rural B.C. vote with the NDP—a who determine which party results, lack of a national Voter ID shocking jolt on both fronts. takes the sceptre. system, and a need to refresh policy The consensus thus far has been that to bring it more in line with the in- the Achilles heel of the Harper gov- terests of a new generation of party ernment was a lethal combination of faithful. Similarly, the Conservatives The Conservative Party must now arrogance and a consistently angry must look beyond merely identify- embark on an exercise in renewal—it tone. That the decision-making at ing a new leader as chief marketer. must refine the articulation of its val- the centre was hijacked by a group The party must reflect on what it has ever-intent on pandering to some ues, find its voice, and engage in re- done wrong, and on what it has done mythical “base” which sought noth- pairs. The party is not, however, in a right—and improve both. ing more from government than sim- state of crisis, as many have argued— oday’s Conservative Party faces plistic populist messaging, more and it holds Official Opposition status, a real fissure of regional more tax cuts, absolute institutional has a robust caucus of 99 MPs, and alienation—particularly in At- iconoclasm, and a steady diet of man- finished a mere 7.5 percent behind T lantic Canada—but also in the most datory minimum sentences—wheth- the Liberals, who formed a strong urban metropolitan areas. To regain er or not the offences in question majority government. This is a strong have even been committed in the last base from which to rebuild. It would its prominence, it must find a way to hundred years. be an overstatement to suggest that not only market itself to these areas, the Conservatives were trounced in but to actually incorporate these re- omething happened. Some- the campaign, or left broken and in gions’ interests and views—while not where along the way, a gov- despair. They are well ahead of the becoming Liberal Lite in the process. S ernment that had been elected position in which the Liberals found Such enterprises succeed by reaching on themes of respect, anti-corruption, themselves in 2011. out and growing the membership to transparency and ethics, evolved into include a more regionally balanced a caricature that started to repel many That said, these important periods foundation, and by ensuring that of its former adherents—to say noth- of reflection and renewal must be the champions of key demographic ing of the undecided or swing voters taken seriously, and they must be interests be included in the policy who determine which party takes the done right. Just as they can lead to decision-making triage.

Policy 31 I was born and raised in Hamilton. to macro-manage, but spoiled by the Canadian meeting, and to repress the My grandfather was born in Cape support of the vast public service. In collective catharsis that parties need Breton. Both regions must feel just as opposition, you can’t phone the work to go through before they can move downstairs. There is no downstairs. on. Keep the convention, allow mem- I was born and You do your own research, your own bers an opportunity to think freely, raised in Hamilton. writing, and your own analysis. They speak freely and be heard; complete need to rehire the old pros who know the election post-mortem, let mem- My grandfather was born how to file Access to Information re- bers digest it, and only then launch in Cape Breton. Both quests, write original copy quickly, a formal leadership campaign once regions must feel just as and think quickly on their feet with- party members have had an oppor- much at home in out a safety net. tunity to reflect on what their party needs. tomorrow’s Conservative Complacency and arrogance are ad- Party as the financial ditional political vices that must be The final critical point is one of tone. In the two months she has occupied wizzes of Bay Street, the guarded against at all costs. In 2006, the Liberals did not truly believe that the post, interim leader Rona Am- libertarians of Calgary, or they could lose to the Tories. They brose has astounded many—Con- the retired hobby farmers of may have been weakened last time servative and non-Conservatives the Okanagan. around, but by pulling out the old alike—with the success of a sunnier bag of tricks—spending promises, an way of communicating. With slight appeal to values, and an aggressive tweaks of tone, banishing the anger negative ad campaign, they would and finger pointing, and an overlay much at home in tomorrow’s Con- surely once again hold the Conserva- of sophistication, she has successfully servative Party as the financial wizzes tives at bay. Under the radar, how- relayed virtually identical policy, but of Bay Street, the libertarians of Cal- ever, the Tories had honed their skills in a way that exudes reason, compas- sion and common sense. As one ob- gary, or the retired hobby farmers of and style. They adopted a far more server put it, “It’s amazing what you the Okanagan. The Liberal Party did disciplined and targeted strategy, rev- can accomplish when you simply de- not win by selecting which strain of olutionized ground game processes, cide to stop being a jerk in your de- liberalism should be dominant under and flipped the lengthy nine-week livery.” Every party has its structural the next tenure—it found a way to writ period to their own advantage handicaps. While the left must work accommodate them all. by setting the narrative. Similarly, the Liberals surprised the Conserva- harder on competence, the right has Second: Parliament matters. I have al- tives in 2015 by leap-frogging over to pay special attention to empathy. ready heard analyses concluding that the “perfected” Conservative Voter- This lesson cannot be lost on the the Liberal win in 2015 suggests that ID and GOTV machines with a com- next regime. Parliament is irrelevant and that a par- bination of innovation and persever- Just as Wilfrid Laurier predicted in ty’s road to power lies entirely in out- ance. Just because you invented or his day that the next century would reach on the street. This could not be perfected something, doesn’t mean be Canada’s, Stephen Harper thought further from the truth. In fact, it could your opponents won’t learn, emu- the next hundred years, politically, be argued that the Liberals benefit- late and improve on your systems would belong to the Conservatives. ted from the NDP’s diligent and sys- for the next time around. The NDP It is precisely at such times of transi- tematic performance in opposition, surpassed Conservative tech fund- tion that parties determine their fu- gradually and competently eroding a raising innovation in 2011, and the ture track—success or failure, lessons stale Conservative government’s hold Liberals surpassed the Tories’ ground learned or mistakes repeated. With on power. It may have been another game mastery in 2015. Complacency sufficient attention, patience and party doing the heavy lifting in the is fatal. Politics is often compared to wisdom, there is no reason we can’t House, but that diligent hounding of a shark tank, and we all know a shark realize both Laurier’s and Harper’s vi- government by opposition was essen- can’t sit still—or it drowns. sions in the 21st century. tial to weakening the Conservatives sufficiently to create an opening for nother prescription is to take Yaroslav Baran advised former another party to take the reins. the time to fully analyze and Conservative leader Stephen A reflect upon the lessons of Harper through both his successful he Conservatives must take 2015. The Conservative Party has a leadership campaigns, and ran their Official Opposition role convention scheduled for May. The party communications through three T seriously, and put in the work. party would be wise to avoid any calls Conservative national elections (not This means also re-learning the oppo- for turning this into a rash leadership the last one!). He is a partner with sition craft. A decade of political staff convention. It would also be wise to Earnscliffe Strategy Group. has come and gone, knowing how avoid calls to scrap or defer the pan- [email protected]

January/February 2016