Market View [Election] Economics and Strategy

August 26, 2021 - (Vol. V, No. 86) Liberals spring a leak… is this political déjà vu? By Warren Lovely/Taylor Schleich These are nervous days for the and Prime looking a bit long in the tooth (having ruled since 1993) and carried the Minister . Since opting for a September 20th snap scent of scandal. (Remember the Gomery inquiry into the Sponsorship election—a vote that some consider unnecessary or ill-timed— scandal and those authored golf balls dubbed “small-town cheap” support for the Liberals has bled away. A Liberal majority (an unstated by the Commissioner? It’s a colourful chapter in Canada’s political yet presumably key goal of this election for the incumbents) was no history if you’re unfamiliar with it.) worse than a coin flip proposition just over a week ago. But dreams Back to the story. Despite being brought down, the incumbent of returning to majority land, where governing is procedurally easier Liberals were polling relatively well in the early days of the 2006 and the party in power isn’t as beholden to opposition voices, look to campaign. The campaign ran pretty long, closer to 8 weeks vs. the be slipping away for the Liberals. As it stands, and things are clearly roughly 5-week sprint we’re engaged in now. But… cue dramatic fluid, two noted poll aggregators (Grenier & Fournier) give the Liberals music… Liberal fortunes faded (badly) on the campaign trail, while somewhere between 141 and 151 of the 338 seats in the House of Conservative support galvanized. Once the Liberals lost momentum Commons, worse than their standing at dissolution and further away they never really got it back (Chart 2). The Liberals went on to secure from the magic 170 majority line (Chart 1). Perhaps for the first time, just 30% of the vote, losing 30 seats relative to their standing at Liberals might be wondering if they could actually lose the election… dissolution. The Conservatives carried the popular vote (36%) and even if they don’t dare utter such words out loud. took a plurality of seats (124 out of 308 for a net improvement of 26 Chart 1: Projected Liberal seat count fades seats vs. dissolution) (Chart 3). was named Canada’s Seat projections by party for 2021 general federal election: 13-Aug vs. 26-Aug 22nd prime minister. As an aside, the NDP were also net winners back 200 # in 2006, a result that itself has some parallels to the latest seat 13-Aug 180 173 projections we’re following. 26-Aug 160 151 Chart 2: Liberals lost momentum in 2006 & never got it back Liberal (red), CPC (blue) opinion polling: 2006 election campaign & final result 140 45 120 Share of vote, % 120 CON +20 36.3% 100 LIB -22 100 BQ -2 NDP +5 40 80 60 35 34 39 40 29 27 30 20 2 1 0 25 LIB CON NDP BQ Other Source: NBF, CBC Poll Tracker (as at 26-Aug) | Note: 338Canada projects 141.4 for LIB 30.2% Politics is fickle business and public opinion polling is likewise 20 imprecise. So let us be perfectly clear: We’re not making an election

call, nor are we ‘throwing in’ with any given party. That’s not our job 07-Jan 17-Jan 28-Nov 08-Dec 18-Dec 28-Dec nor our practice. We’ll wait and see what the vote brings on Source: NBF, various pollsters | Note: Arrows refer to final vote share in election September 20th like everyone else. Chart 3: Conservatives flipped the script in 2006 But economic/fiscal/financial markets analysis is our job. As Party standing: At dissolution of parliament vs. 2006 election result strategists, we’re meant to think about all potential scenarios and 140 # 133 outcomes. We’ve already offered much analysis as it relates to this 124 At dissolution election. Nonetheless, the apparent faltering of Liberal support and 120 103 relatively improved prospects for the Conservatives put us in mind of 98 2006 election the 2006 general election. That was a vote that saw a Liberal 100 minority, under , lose power to a new Conservative 80 CON +26 minority government under the leadership of Stephen Harper. So is LIB -30 Erin O’Toole the next Stephen Harper? We’ll see. The two men share BQ -2 53 a few similarities, as our Table on page 3 makes clear. 60 51 NDP +11

Again, without declaring an end to Liberal rule, we reminded ourselves 40 29 of just what transpired fifteen years ago, in/around Canada’s 18 January 2006 general election. Unlike today’s Liberal government, 20 6 which pulled the plug on itself, Paul Martin’s Liberal minority was 1 brought down by a vote of non-confidence. The Conservatives, NDP 0 and Bloc effectively gang tackled a Liberal government that was CON LIB BQ NDP Other Source: NBF, Elections Canada

1 Market View [Election] Economics and Strategy

How did financial markets react? Well, as always, we caution that it’s Table 1: The 2006 election, a financial markets retrospective largely the external backdrop that’s driving key Canadian asset Chg. in interest rate differentials, C$, WTI, TSX in days before/after ‘06 election valuations around elections (or otherwise). Indeed, in the lead-up to Canada-US interest rate differentials (bps) FX, commodities, equities (%) the 2006 vote, the C$ was surging as oil prices were on a tear. After Policy 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y C$ WTI TSX S&P the vote, C$ defied the falling oil prices and continued to climb higher, -20 0.0 0.2 4.0 7.9 7.9 1.5 16.5 4.3 -0.4 -10 0.0 6.9 7.8 6.4 4.4 1.6 6.8 1.5 -2.0 but ultimately lost steam roughly 30 days after the Conservative -5 0.0 0.6 5.0 6.1 4.2 0.8 6.1 0.1 -1.8 government was elected (Chart 4). To complicate things further, the Pre-vote -1 0.0 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.0 0.3 -0.7 1.1 0.2 2006 election came amidst both BoC and Fed hiking cycles. In the 50 1 25.0 -6.5 -3.6 -2.8 -2.5 -0.2 -1.6 -0.3 0.2 days post-vote, both central banks had tapped the breaks twice, 5 25.0 -10.2 -5.1 -4.4 -6.0 0.4 0.8 1.8 1.7 nudging their respective policy rates higher by 50 basis points. The 10 0.0 -9.2 -2.9 -2.6 0.3 0.2 -4.0 3.0 0.1

net result however, was significant outperformance of Canadian Post-vote 20 0.0 -24.3 -16.9 -11.8 6.2 0.1 -11.7 1.1 1.9 rates as the monetary tightening-led repricing was far less 50 0.0 -28.8 -26.5 -25.3 -21.1 -1.8 -1.6 4.1 2.7 pronounced in the GoC market. Just 50 weekdays after the votes -20 to +50 0.0 -28.6 -22.5 -17.4 -13.2 -0.4 14.6 8.6 2.3 were tallied, the entire GoC curve had risen by 20-30 fewer basis -20 to +20 0.0 -24.1 -12.9 -3.9 14.1 1.6 2.8 5.5 1.5 points than the Treasury curve (Chart 5). -10 to +10 0.0 -2.3 4.9 3.8 4.7 1.9 2.5 4.5 -1.9 -5 to +5 25.0 -9.6 -0.1 1.7 -1.8 1.1 6.9 1.9 -0.2 Pre Post to Chart 4: C$ gained ground & held it shortly after 2006 vote… -1 to +1 25.0 -4.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 0.1 -2.4 0.7 0.4 WTI & CAD 20 prior to/after 23-Jan-2006 election Source: NBF, Bloomberg | Note: FX, commodity, equity prices moves are based on indexed levels where 100 corresponds to T=0. 71 0.89 US$/bbl US$ per C$ Harper’s first couple of budgets made good on a lot of these pledges. 69 0.88 The very first fiscal blueprint, presented by the late and famous FinMin 67 James Flaherty just a few months after coming to power in 2006, 0.87 pledged C$35 billion in new initiatives over two years. Budget 2006 65 made good on the initial 1%-pt cut in the GST (to 6%), introduced job 0.86 creating measures and various personal tax credits, outlined 63 corporate income tax relief, while at the same time committed the 0.85 61 feds to steady debt reduction and a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio to 25%. By the time Budget 2007 came around, a further C$24 billion 0.84 59 over three years of additional initiatives had been rolled out. WTI (L) 57 0.83 Of course, the federal budget was balanced when the Conservative C$ (R) came to power in 2006, the debt burden around 35%, so the 55 0.82 budgetary trajectory wasn’t really a source of concern. It’s a different -20 -10 t=0 +10 +20 +30 +40 +50 Source: NBF, Bloomberg | Note: Days refer to business days; election date = “t=0” story today. And what do the Conservatives of 2021 stand for, besides a one- Chart 5: …while Canadian rates largely outperformed USTs Cda-US interest rate differentials prior to/after 23-Jan-2006 election month GST holiday this fall? Well, the official party platform, titled 15 “Secure the Future” can be found here. We don’t intend this note as bps 2Y 5Y a detailed comparison of core platform planks, but the Conservative 10 10Y 30Y focus (in a few words) centres around: recovering lost jobs; anti- 5 corruption; assorted health care initiatives (including a mental health 0 focus); and balancing the budget over the next decade. That budgetary commitment might not sound super-aggressive, but -5 balance is something the Liberals have yet to aspire to, the latest -10 Liberal budget simply promising to preserve an international edge on -15 the debt burden. -20 O’Toole’s Conservative are unapologetic in their support for pipelines and LNG exports, while on climate change they aim to steer policies -25 in line with key peers, capping a carbon tax at no more than -30 C$50/tonne. There’s also a commitment to end the so-called -35 ‘mistreatment of Western Canada’, which involves a fairer -20 -10 t=0 +10 +20 +30 +40 +50 Equalization/transfer framework, lifting the cap on fiscal stabilization Source: NBF, Bloomberg | Note: Days refer to business days; election date = “t=0” payments retroactively and various initiatives to reinvigorate job What of the policy parallels? Back in 2006, the Conservatives had run creation in the West (e.g., nuke Bill C-69, end ban on shipping on BC’s a platform labeled “Stand up for Canada”, which focused (among North Coast, implement a hydrogen strategy, prohibit protests at key other things) on: stamping out scandal and restoring accountability; resource project sites, a new tax credit for CCS). tax relief (including an immediate cut to GST); a strong on Obviously, 2021 looks nothing like 2006 in a lot of key respects. COVID crime/public safety agenda; ending the so-called ‘fiscal imbalance’; has made sure of that. But if you’ve picked up on some similarities investing in infrastructure and other job creation tactics, including between the Conservative platforms, old and new, you’re not alone. freer trade, etc. A replay of the 2006 election in by no means a certainty, but it’s worthwhile knowing what transpired back then… just in case.

2 Market View [Election] Economics and Strategy

Finally, a postscript on the 2006 vote: After losing the election, Liberal The Conservative election platform: then and now leader and then-PM Martin announced his intention to step down. The Liberals put an interim leader in place (Bill Graham) and ultimately selected Stéphane Dion as the party’s next leader at a 2006 national convention. The Liberals then, by all accounts, headed into the proverbial wilderness, winning barely 110 seats in the next two federal elections… combined! Electorally speaking, this was something of a low point for the party, until they came roaring back to power under JT in October 2015. Our history lesson concludes. Caveats and cautions remain. More thoughts on the vote to come… Table 2: A tale of two conservative leaders Key comparisons: Stephen Harper & Erin O’Toole Name Stephen Harper Erin O'Toole Date of birth 30-Apr-59 22-Jan-73 Toronto, Montreal, Born Ontario Quebec

Port Perry & Toronto (Leaside), Grew up Bowmanville, Ontario … and the unfolding Liberal plan Ontario Siblings Oldest of 3 Oldest of 5 General Motors, Father worked for Imperial Oil Ontario MPP Married Married Marital status (Laureen, 1993) (Rebecca, 2000) Children 2 2 economist, lawyer, Occupation lecturer, military officer author Reform, Party affiliation CRAP, Conservative (while in office) Conservative First elected as MP 25-Oct-93 26-Nov-12 End of service 26-Aug-16 - Length of time as MP 6398 days 3196+ days Calgary, Durham, Home riding Alberta Ontario No Yes Won riding first try (lost 1988 (won 2012 general election) by-election) Won party leadership 20-Mar-02 24-Aug-20 No Won general election (off opp in 2004 first try as leader to Martin/Liberals) PM 22nd TBD First election win 23-Jan-06 ~ Age when sworn in 46 Stay tuned for Sept 20th Terms in power 3 general Minority (2), Type of gov't federal Majority (1) election Parliaments 39th to 41st results Combined ministry Feb-06 to Nov-15 3558 days Days as PM (6th of all PMs) Official website stephenharper.com meet.erinotoole.ca Source: NBF, Library of Parliament, various public records

3 Market View Economics and Strategy

Economics and Strategy Montreal Office Toronto Office 514-879-2529 416-869-8598 Stéfane Marion Matthieu Arseneau Paul-André Pinsonnault Warren Lovely Chief Economist and Strategist Deputy Chief Economist Senior Economist Chief Rates and Public Sector Strategist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Kyle Dahms Daren King Jocelyn Paquet Taylor Schleich Economist Economist Economist Rates Strategist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Angelo Katsoras David Djavidi Alexandra Ducharme Alpa Atha Geopolitical Analyst Intern Economist Intern Economist Fixed Income Economist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

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Market View Economics and Strategy

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