4 The German Times July 2020 Breakup therapy Brexit has roared back onto the political agenda: Can Merkel lead Europe and the United Kingdom to an amicable divorce?

to avoid an endless cycle of claims BY DEREK SCALLY and counterclaims. As the curtain rose on the Ger-

nyone who grows up with IMAGES/XINHUA IMAGO many’s EU Council presidency, conflict, as I did looking in Merkel warned that all EU mem- Aon 1980s Northern Ireland bers must prepare for the pos- from Dublin, learns not to trust sibility that talks with Britain on calm. their post-Brexit relationship The push for peace in Northern could fail. Ireland ahead of the 1998 Belfast “I will keep pushing for a good Agreement was marred, and almost solution, but the EU and Ger- derailed, by the ghosts of 3,500 dead many, too, must and should pre- over the previous 30 years – and pare for the case that an agree- fears over unpredictable hardliners. ment is not reached,” said Merkel So, too, on Brexit: the common in an address to the Bundestag. will for success in the transi- She is well aware that success – tion process is overshadowed by or failure – to agree on an orderly decades of traumatic EU-UK mis- departure from the EU will color understandings and the real pros- her legacy. But the consequences pect of failure stemming from the for the UK are even more grave, determined Brexiteers’ transfor- she warned in a newspaper inter- mation of British domestic politics. view, and the UK would “have to Their successful push for the UK live with the consequences” of a to back an EU departure in 2016 Deal breaker: On the heals of the stalled talks between London and Brussels in June, no-deal outcome. opened a whole collection of Pan- the EU and the UK ruled out an extension of the transition period beyond 2020. What for her was a logical dora’s Boxes, raising a series of statement of fact was seized on political and economic questions ever, Brexit roared back onto the Justice; this is seen as an affront prints, license plates and criminal person of an experienced crisis by hardline Brexiteers, citing her that, four years on, remain largely political agenda. Several sets of talks to their newly won independence. records. That, in turn, could end broker. words as apparent proof of Euro- unanswered. in recent weeks – high-level political But Brussels is anxious to avoid the EU access to UK intelligence German Chancellor Angela pean ill will towards the United Above all, the vote delivered a and technical negotiations – have UK undercutting EU standards and resources. Merkel is coming to the end of Kingdom. body blow to two decades of cau- yielded, as usual, underwhelming regulations. In anticipation of such stand- her political career after 15 crisis- As the fourth anniversary of tious peace in Northern Ireland and almost non-existent progress. The UK rejects the concept of offs in transition talks, the EU wracked years in power, snatching the Brexit vote came and went, which, like Scotland, voted to stay in With the transition period trickling far-reaching, binding “level play- insisted that arrangements for success from the jaws of defeat the Brexiteer narrative is already the EU, but had their wish trumped away and attention elsewhere, the ing field” commitments, though Northern Ireland would not be in banking, currency and refugee gearing up to frame any failure of by the weighted will of English and specter of a disorderly Brexit is fast its negotiators say they will agree a negotiating chip in trade talks. crises. talks – and a subsequent UK eco- Welsh leave voters. Maintaining approaching. to maintain current employment, They pushed for London to agree Fate has presented a final – and nomic meltdown – as a final act of peace post-Brexit hinges on secur- No trade deal and no extension environmental and consumer stan- to a special protocol to that effect perhaps the greatest – test of the revenge by the bloc it left after 47 ing economic certainty. of the transition period – as the UK dards. in its EU withdrawal package. “Merkel method.” Faced with a years. But not all UK voters are The anti-climax of the UK’s tech- insists – mean that the UK’s third- Instead, Prime Minister Boris The Northern Ireland protocol seemingly intractable problem, likely to swallow that narrative. In nical and legal departure from the country relationship with the EU Johnson’s government insists that aims to avoid the introduction of the trained physicist likes to break fact, on Brexit, a majority seems to EU on January 31 started another is downgraded to minimum WTO being free of the EU gives it a free a hard border on the island of Ire- it down into a series of smaller be suffering buyer’s remorse. clock ticking: an 11-month transi- trade arrangements. hand to subsidize indigenous indus- land, but not everyone in Dublin is challenges. With an eye for detail, The European Social Survey tion period during which, barring Hardline Brexiteers insist this will try if it wishes, and this must be confident London will honor its she solves the individual compo- (ESS), a pan-European poll carried another extension, the never-ending be an adequate foundation for a new, reflected in any agreement. In other commitment. nents and then attempts to reas- out every two years, suggested story of Brexit will reach its latest – “global Britain,” with an eye toward words, it is clinging to the ability The COVID-19 pandemic has semble them into one, hopefully that nearly 57 percent of UK and apparently final – climax. new opportunities in a re-ordered to decide policy for itself without not helped matters either. For resolved whole. voters would now vote to remain But the world has changed since post-pandemic global economy. being told off for doing so by Brus- weeks, talks that would otherwise She is not directly involved in in the EU, up seven points since the Brexit process began: global Pessimists predict a no-deal Brexit sels or the CJEU. have taken place in person were Brexit talks, which are led by the 2018, while the Leave camp has attention, and political capacity, will bring economic chaos, above all A key obstacle to a compromise shifted online, which severely European Commission. But if – as shrunk to 35 percent. Four years has been swallowed up by efforts to in the UK, with a particular blow is that London has yet to spell out limited the possibility of informal is likely – the talks come down in, both sides admit “serious diver- address the COVID-19 pandemic dealt to the closely integrated “all- its own state aid regime, leaving asides between rounds. to another late-night session in gences” remain in EU-UK divorce – and to battle its worst health and Ireland economy.” the EU unable to evaluate how a As veterans of the complex and, Brussels, the German chancel- talks, and senior officials will sacri- economic effects. There are four major building system of parallel state aid regimes charged 1998 Good Friday peace lor is the person you want in the fice their summer vacation to get a Tackling the pandemic fallout sites in Brexit talks at present: the would work. talks remember, using breaks to room. deal over the line. Things may still and securing a new seven-year EU so-called level playing field, fisher- A refusal by London to recognize take nuanced and unofficial sound- The UK favors a series of prag- seem calm on Brexit, but the calm budget are the two priorities for ies, police and judicial questions, the Luxembourg court’s jurisdic- ings in the corridors is as crucial matic agreements, in particular is not to be trusted. Germany as it assumes the rotat- and governance. tion and oversight could spill over as any meeting-room talks for on the many outstanding issues; ing presidency of the Council of the On governance, the UK remains into other areas of cooperation. It making possible the seemingly the EU wants Brexit regulated Derek Scally European Union. allergic to anything that would bind would call into question UK police impossible. by one, far-reaching treaty that is the Berlin correspondent Just as Berlin took over the EU itself in perpetuity to EU regula- and security service access to crime The Brexit talks have, in the anticipates future problems with for The Irish Times. reins for six months on July 1, how- tions and the European Court of and prosecution databases: finger- home stretch, gained in the resolution mechanisms, in order

Check-up” is designed to comple- BY ERIC BONSE Reconstruction first, then morality ment existing mechanisms and build bridges between East and West. All here do you stand on 27 EU countries will be asked to take the subject of democ- Hungary and Poland can expect leniency in their dispute the test – not just Poland, Hungary Wracy and the rule of with the EU over values and the rule of law and Romania, but Germany as well. law? This was a popular question However, until then, all 27 heads of during the run-up to the European state and government will be invited elections in May 2019, and none sively to strengthen fundamental cial refugee policy no longer enjoys Tusk was not able to prevail against of democracy and the erasure of the to join Merkel at the negotiating of the top candidates was able to values and particularly to promote a priority status. Back in 2015, when the directive from Berlin. The rule of law on the continent. This table to discuss the new EU budget avoid it. Politicians everywhere, common, cooperative and construc- Hungary and Poland dug in their former EU Council president from fact was on display in particularly and post-pandemic economic including in Germany, were call- tive approach to dealing with the heels and refused to accept asylum Poland had called for Fidesz to be vivid color in the cases brought reconstruction. Only after that – at ing on the EU to rein in Viktor issue of the rule of law,” read the seekers, Merkel continued to fight expelled, but without support from against Poland and Hungary, accus- least according to the finely chiseled Orbán and Jarosław Kaczyński. official statement. bravely for a “European solution.” the CDU, nothing can move forward ing them of breaching EU values and dramaturgy that is Germany’s cur- Even French President Emmanuel However, this handling is by no Five years later, Merkel is eager to in the EPP. the rule of law; both cases have been rent presidency of the EU Council Macron vigorously encouraged means a priority of the German pass the hot potato on to someone But it’s not just the conservatives completely ineffective at achieving – will the discussion turn to funda- German Chancellor Angela Merkel presidency of the EU Council. else, which means it’s now the Euro- who are having a hard time with anything close to the desired result. mental values, democracy and the to take up a position against the The announcement was but one pean Commission’s turn to have a Eastern Europe; the Social Demo- In theory, the so-called Article-7 rule of law. “anti-liberals” and “authoritarians” of many, and was even issued after go at the subject. crats are also struggling over which investigations could lead to the with- This begs the general question in Eastern Europe. similar statements focusing on agri- The chancellor has indeed burned path to take. For example, for some drawal of a country’s voting rights as to whether an attempt is being Today, one year later, Orbán culture and consumer protection. her fingers a few too many times in time, Social Democratic colleagues on the EU Council – a move referred made to garner support for the and Kaczyński haven’t budged an In addition, the Berlin government Eastern Europe, and she is unwill- in Brussels and Berlin resisted taking to as “the nuclear option.” It means controversial reconstruction plan inch, especially after Polish Presi- avoids pillorying any country in par- ing to risk a reemergence of the action against corruption in Roma- that the member state would lose in return for silence regarding the dent Andrzej Duda was narrowly ticular. In fact, the new idea is to issue during Germany’s half-year as nia, which has a Social Democratic the ability to participate in decision- violations of the rule of law in Hun- reelected on July 12. Duda is a close encourage not just Poland and Hun- EU Council president. But Merkel government. Only after weeks of making in the most important EU gary and Poland. Franziska Brant- political ally of Kaczyński. gary, but all 27 EU states to engage body. In practice, however, it is ner, European affairs spokesperson The battle over democracy in a “political rule-of-law dialogue highly unlikely that this could ever for the Greens in the Bundestag, and the rule of law, which former on an equal footing,” as the govern- Back in 2015, when Hungary happen, seeing as such far-reaching warns against such an approach: European Commission President ment draft put it. In other words, all decisions must receive unanimous “I fear that any financial sanctions Jean-Claude Juncker once fought members will be encouraged to put and Poland refused asylum consent, and Poland and Hungary against countries that breach the with notable verve, has clearly lost themselves to the test. clearly have each other’s back in the rule of law will ultimately turn out momentum under his successor, Even the linking of EU financial seekers, Merkel fought bravely matter. to be less severe than the Euro- Ursula von der Leyen. The CDU aid to the promotion of democracy For this reason, the Article-7 pro- pean Commission had originally politician let herself be nomi- and the rule of law – something for a European solution cedure has never moved beyond a planned.” nated with votes from Orbán and Berlin has been requesting for ages non-binding hearing. And even this One could also express the Kaczyński and has been handling – is suddenly no longer very impor- is not the only one doing her best squabbling was the Romanian PSD delicate diplomatic exercise proved dilemma in more drastic terms: the Eastern Europeans with kid tant. Germany is indeed still sup- to avoid trouble; the acting CDU suspended. That was more than to be counterproductive. The pro- first comes food, then comes gloves ever since. The German pres- porting the corresponding proposal chairwoman Annegret Kramp-Kar- a year ago, and things have gotten cedure looked like “an instrument morality. In the era of COVID-19, idency of the EU Council is unlikely issued by the European Commis- renbauer is also pursuing a policy of noticeably quiet with regard to used by the West to blackmail the this famous Bertolt Brecht dictum to change that. sion, but Merkel is clearly reluctant appeasement. In the dispute over Romania in the meantime. There East,” admitted State Minister for applies now more than ever. And On the agenda for the coming to campaign for the proposal on a Fidesz in Hungary, she spoke out is also little talk of Poland and Hun- Europe Michael Roth (SPD) after this means that Eastern European six months, Hungary and Poland grand scale. A quick passage of the against excluding the party from gary these days in Brussels. an unproductive meeting. Although states can count on leniency in the are not mentioned at all – in spite new EU budget has the utmost pri- the conservative European Peo- The EU has more important “this is by no means the case,” he coming months. of the ongoing investigations into ority, and no one wants to jeopar- ple’s Party (EPP). In other words, things to do in the COVID-19 era noted, it nevertheless showed very breaches of EU values and the rule dize this much-needed agreement Orbán’s supporters in European than to discipline its problem chil- clearly the limits of Article 7. of law by governments in Warsaw by digging into the pockets of Hun- Parliament are allowed to stay. dren in Eastern Europe. In fact, the Even the new instrument devised and Budapest. Germany’s govern- gary or Poland. This decision has weakened the EU has been forced to recognize by Roth and the Belgian EU Justice Eric Bonse is a political scientist and journalist. ment has expressed its commitment Even the theme of asylum law liberal and only moderately con- that it actually has very few weap- Commissioner Didier Reynders He works as an EU to defending the shared values of reform and fair burden-sharing servative Eastern Europeans in the ons – and blunt ones at that – to harbors no promise for resounding correspondent in Brussels. the EU: “We will […] work inten- among member states as part of offi- EPP. Even EPP President Donald combat nepotism, the dismantling success; the “Fundamental Values